期货方面， 沪银主力合约日内涨逾5%，现报23171元/千克。 编辑｜钉钉 2月25日午后，现货黄金、白银持续走高。截至发稿， 现货黄金涨1.38%，站上5200美元/盎司。 现货白银站上91美元/盎司，为2月4日以来首次，日内涨4.51%。 ...

能源化工板块成交3858.18亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.28%；持仓金额4612.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.80%；成 交持仓比为74.05%。 农产品板块成交2427.28亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.29%；持仓金额5942.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.38%；成交 持仓比为38.01%。 2026-02-24，股指板块成交6640.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.20%；持仓金额15290.25亿元，较上一交易日变动 -5.14%；成交持仓比为42.94%。 国债板块成交7160.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.87%；持仓金额9578.63亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.60%；成交持 仓比为73.52%。 基本金属板块成交3505.88亿元，较上一交易日变动-37.29%；持仓金额6521.96亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.06%； 成交持仓比为57.84%。 贵金属板块成交3724.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-56.04%；持仓金额5166.36亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.12%；成 交持仓比为85.47%。 流动性日报 | 2026-02-25 市场流动性概况 黑色建材板块成交1366.3 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-25 A股马年开门红，关注特朗普国情咨文演讲 市场分析 国内春节假期期间，海外地缘风险不断。首先是伊朗紧张，美伊于2月17日在日内瓦举行第二轮间接谈判，双方承 认分歧仍存，但同意继续接触，美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行。据美国《纽约时报》22日报 道，美国总统特朗普已告诉其顾问，他"倾向于在未来数日（对伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场 更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗"屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。此前，特朗普曾公开表示考虑对伊朗进行"初步的 有限军事打击"，并给出约10-15天的"最后期限"，否则将面临严重后果。其次是美国"对等关税"被宣布违法，2月 20日，美国最高法院以6票对3票的投票结果裁定，1977年出台的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）并未赋予总统 在未经国会批准时征收关税的权力。同日，特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，征收"全球进口关税"， 税率10%，为期150天，以取代被最高法院认定违法的关税，该关税2月24日已经正式生效。当地时间2月21日，美 国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对全球商品加征10%的 ...

重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-31.25美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化310元/吨至24650元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-40元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日300元/吨至24610元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日320元/吨至24610元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-24沪锌主力合约开于24205元/吨，收于24625元/吨，较前一交易日180元/吨，全天交易日成交 59306手，全天交易日持仓35129手，日内价格最高点达到24835元/吨，最低点达到24205元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-25 关注节后去库节奏 库存方面：截至2026-02-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为20.97万吨，较上期变化4.94万吨。截止2026-02-24，LME 锌库存为101250吨，较上一交易日变化-300吨。 市场分析 海外不确定扰动仍然存在，一方面中东地缘危机升级，另一方面美国关税仍存不确定性，特朗普前期关税政策被 裁定越权，而特朗普仍欲将关税政策升级。节后第一交易日锌价先扬后抑。基本面方面春 ...

转自：新华财经 国贸期货：贵金属牛市逻辑仍旧坚固 建议以逢低多配为主 恒泰期货：地缘局势、宽松预期和弱美元提振贵金属 广发期货：警惕黄金大涨之后多头集中止盈 法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）：黄金将继续在全球外汇储备中发挥重要作用 华侨银行（OCBC）：金价上行风险正在重建 【机构观点分析】 国贸期货研报指出，短期市场或仍需继续消化特朗普新关税政策以及美伊紧张局势的持续发酵带来的不 确定性，贵金属价格有望维持偏强运行，直至局势出现新的进展或美国对伊朗的军事行动落地。中长期 来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，建议投资者以逢低多配为主。黄金将继续凭借货币与避险属 性，在美国债务扩张持续削弱美元信用、地缘政治局势复杂及流动性宽松延续等多重因素共振下，全球 央行／机构／居民的配置需求有望延续，驱动价格重心继续上移。 恒泰期货25日早盘观点认为，中东地区局势持续紧张，美军在相关区域军事部署加剧了市场对潜在冲突 的担忧，弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置价值。同时，市场对美联储降息预期持续发酵，"宽松预 期+弱美元"修复通道延续，提振了以美元计价的贵金属价格。节后内盘贵金属价格或呈现跟随行情， 高波动率背景 ...

今日周三(2月25日)亚盘时段，周二贵金属价格回落调整，受节中地缘避险与美国贸易不确定性担忧缓 和引发贵金属获利盘回吐影响。COMEX白银2603合约收报于87.07美元/盎司，涨幅0.57%。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 3月白银期货多头的下一短期上行目标为，推动合约收盘价突破90.00美元这一关键技术阻力位;空头的 下一短期下行目标则是将收盘价打压至2月低点71.815美元这一重要支撑位下方。白银期货第一阻力位 见于今日高点88.75美元，进一步阻力位为90.00美元;下方第一支撑位为本周低点84.56美元，进一步支 撑位为83.00美元。 昨天全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust(SLV)白银持仓增加277.54吨至16107.92吨。 前贵金属市场交易集中在美联储货币政策预期、地缘局势避险与贸易政策不确定三个维度上。短期需关 注15%临时关税若正式实施后，贸易伙伴反制措施，以及美国政府与法律就贸易关税博弈下的后续变 化。另外，3月19日美联储FOMC会议点阵图及经济预测则将是验证降息路径的关键，期间则需关注3月 初美非农就业报告、3月中旬美CPI数据。 打开APP，查看更多高清 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].

早盘速递 2026/2/25 热点资讯 1.美国正式开始征收10%全球关税，白宫正在准备把税率提高到15%的正式命令。有消息称，美国政府还在考虑以"国家安全" 为由，对六个行业加征新一轮关税，涉及大型电池、铸铁及铁制配件、塑料管道、工业化学品以及电网和电信设备等领域，并 将独立于15%全球关税。 2.经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，春节假日9天，全国国内出游5.96亿人次，较2025年春节假日8天增加0.95亿人次；国内出游 总花费8034.83亿元，较2025年春节假日8天增加1264.81亿元，假日游客人数和花费均创历史新高。 3.2月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，连续9个月保持不变。 4.美国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗普总统的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要时也愿意使用致命武力。伊朗外长阿拉格齐表 示，在上一轮谈判达成的共识基础上，伊朗将在日内瓦与美国恢复谈判，决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。 5.据SMM了解，截至2月24日，铅锭五地社会库存总量突破6万吨关口，跃至5个月的高位。国内锌库存总量突破20万吨，逼近21 万吨。受国内企业放假影响，春节期 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.25%报 5160.50 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.57%报 87.07 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 0.35%，报 66.08 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 0.06%，报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate has shown a strong trend, driven by domestic industrial progress, geopolitical stances, policy coordination, and a weakening US dollar. The long - term upward trend of RMB is supported by the continuous improvement of domestic industrial chain autonomy [2]. - Stock indices are expected to be strong, supported by positive liquidity and sentiment, with the spring rally and policy - favorable expectations [5]. - Treasury bonds' upward space should be viewed with caution, with a suggestion to hold a small amount of T2606 mid - line long positions and wait for short - term layout opportunities [6]. - Container shipping futures (European routes) are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the market weighing macro - level positives against the physical market fundamentals [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to first consolidate and then rise; aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate; zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly; nickel - stainless steel is expected to maintain high - level volatility; tin is expected to maintain high - level consolidation; lead is expected to fluctuate [15][16][17][19][20][21]. - For oilseeds, the market is expected to focus on short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities. Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][25]. - For energy and oil and gas, high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong. Asphalt is expected to have small fluctuations [27][28]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a long - term bullish trend, while gold and silver are strategically bullish, with silver focusing on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio [31][34]. - For chemicals, pulp futures can try a small - amount low - buying strategy, and offset - printing paper futures can maintain range trading. Pure benzene and styrene should focus on geopolitical trends, and LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics. Methanol should be temporarily observed, and plastics and PP are supported by cost. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend, and urea can be bought at low levels. Glass and soda ash's supply expectations may change [35][36][38][40][41][44][50][54][56][60]. - For black commodities, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize; coking coal and coke have different trends, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly [64][67][70][71]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig market has weak post - holiday demand; cotton is expected to be strong, but the upward space is restricted; sugar has limited upward space; eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term; apples are pressured by weak demand; red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations; logs can be mainly observed [72][75][76][77][87][88][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Includes news such as US tariff adjustments, gold margin and price - limit adjustments, Spring Festival tourism data, AI - related policies, the Iran situation, and Fed officials' statements [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB has appreciated, driven by domestic industrial and geopolitical factors, as well as a weakening US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.88 [2][4]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices opened higher after the Spring Festival, with small - and medium - cap indices performing relatively strongly. They are expected to be strong due to positive liquidity and sentiment [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose on Tuesday, but the upward space should be viewed with caution. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term chasing of highs should be avoided [6]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on the first trading day after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with multiple positive factors and some negative factors [8][9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose slightly after the holiday. It is expected to first consolidate and then rise, and a horizontal arbitrage strategy can be considered [13][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate. Aluminum should pay attention to post - holiday demand and the Iran situation; alumina is bearish in the long term; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices followed the external market to make up for the increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of the negative feedback of tariff news on the market [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel rose on the first trading day after the holiday. They are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream and US tariff disturbances [17][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices recovered their decline and are expected to maintain high - level consolidation, paying attention to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption of production in Myanmar [20]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a large divergence after the opening, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US tariff policy may affect China's soybean procurement. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. The domestic soybean meal market is short - term long and medium - term bearish, and attention should be paid to short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but exports are declining; soybean oil has cost support; rapeseed oil supply is expected to be loose [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while the low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong due to rigid buying support [27]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices fluctuated slightly. The spot market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices during the holiday, but the actual transaction is not satisfactory. It may face a decline if the demand fails to meet expectations after the holiday [28]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium are expected to be bullish in the long term, supported by factors such as tariff policies and the Iran situation. Attention should be paid to relevant investigations and new tariff measures [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices adjusted downward. They are strategically bullish, and silver should focus on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and Fed meetings [33][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures are expected to continue to rise, and a small - amount low - buying strategy can be considered. Offset - printing paper futures are expected to fluctuate, and range trading can be maintained [35][36]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose after the holiday. Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and a long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics, especially the Iran - US negotiation. The domestic supply and demand situation has little change [39][40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose, mainly due to concerns about the Iran - US conflict and a significant reduction in imports. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. - **Plastics and PP**: Plastic and PP prices rose following the oil price. They are supported by cost and macro - factors. Attention should be paid to mid - stream inventory accumulation and downstream demand release [42][44]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend. Natural rubber is in the low - production season, and synthetic rubber has cost support. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory digestion [45][50][51]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rose, driven by the high price of the latest Indian urea import tender. It is recommended to buy at low levels [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to have a complex supply - demand situation, with potential weakening of demand and possible production reduction. Glass is in a supply - demand weak situation, and high inventory is a risk [55][56][57][60]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to the Iran - US negotiation and the supply - demand situation [62]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with high supply pressure and slow - starting demand [64]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize. The supply improvement needs to be observed, and the demand is expected to increase with the resumption of work in steel mills [65][67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is relatively weak, while coke has a first - round price increase. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in mines and steel mills [68][70]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by the high inventory of downstream steel products [71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The post - holiday pig market has weak demand, and a selling - call - option strategy can be considered [72][73]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are strong, but the upward space is restricted by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. A long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [74][75]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the upward space of sugar prices is limited [76]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term, affected by high inventory and weak consumption in the short term [77]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are pressured by weak post - holiday demand, but the decline space is limited due to delivery contradictions [87]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations, with attention paid to post - holiday demand [88]. - **Logs**: Logs can be mainly observed, with a relatively neutral valuation. A small - amount low - buying strategy and a small - amount 03 - 05 reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered [89][90].