Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "Financial Industry Convention" by WeChat's video platform, aimed at regulating financial content creation and dissemination, addressing issues of unlicensed financial influencers and illegal stock recommendations [3][5]. Group 1: Regulation of Financial Content - The convention will take effect on April 1, 2026, and focuses on three main areas: account qualifications, content standards, and operational practices [3][5]. - It aims to close loopholes that allow unqualified individuals to pose as financial experts, thereby addressing illegal stock recommendations [7][9]. - Financial accounts claiming professional qualifications must undergo certification, including individual and institutional certifications for various financial roles [7][8]. Group 2: Content Compliance and Prohibitions - The convention delineates clear boundaries for acceptable content, encouraging the dissemination of objective, professional, and fact-based financial information while prohibiting specific practices [12][13]. - It explicitly bans the promotion of specific stocks, funds, or futures, as well as any promises of returns or misleading advertising [13][14]. - The platform will take action against accounts engaging in illegal practices, including limiting video reach, deleting content, or banning accounts based on the severity of violations [14]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Influencers - The new regulations are expected to lead to a significant reduction in unqualified financial influencers, as they will struggle to meet the certification requirements [14][16]. - The article highlights that the shift from a focus on attracting views to providing educational content will benefit creators with genuine industry analysis skills [14][19]. - Financial institutions are currently halting collaborations with unqualified influencers, indicating a shift towards compliance and responsible marketing practices [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 26, 2026 [2]. - The report also provides the performance of various futures on March 25, 2026, and analyzes their short - term trends [11][31][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: In March 2026, IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 are expected to be weak and volatile. On March 26, they are likely to be strong and volatile [2][15][16]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026. On March 26, gold and silver futures are likely to be in consolidation [2][31][36]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, and other base metals futures are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026, while alumina futures are expected to be strong and volatile. On March 26, different trends are predicted for each metal [2][41][45]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026 and may hit new highs. On March 26, they are likely to show different trends [2][78][84][90]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026. On March 26, they are likely to show different trends [2][95][100][104]. - **Agricultural Futures**: The soybean meal futures are expected to be strong and volatile on March 26, and the butadiene futures are expected to be strong and widely volatile and may hit a new high on March 26 [109][110]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - China - Netherlands relations: Premier Li Qiang had a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with the Netherlands [5]. - Market regulation: The State Administration for Market Regulation reprinted an article calling for an end to the food delivery war [5]. - Trade issues: The Ministry of Commerce determined that Mexico's relevant measures against China constitute trade and investment barriers [5]. - Middle - East situation: The negotiation between the US and Iran is uncertain. Iran has put forward five conditions for a cease - fire. The situation in the Middle East has affected the prices of oil and other commodities [6]. - Economic data: Wall Street institutions have raised the probability of a US economic recession. US import and export prices have increased. The Fed and the ECB have made statements about monetary policy [8][9]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - International precious metals futures generally rose, while US oil and Brent oil futures fell. London base metals mostly rose. Russia restricted the export of gold bars, and Saudi Arabia increased crude oil exports from the Yanbu port. Indonesia plans to impose tariffs on coal and nickel exports [9][10]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the US dollar index rose [11]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 25, 2026, the main contracts of stock index futures rebounded. The A - share market rose, and overseas institutions are enthusiastic about Chinese assets [11][13][14]. - **Other Futures**: The performance of other futures on March 25, 2026, is analyzed, and their trends in March 2026 and on March 26, 2026, are predicted [31][36][41]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.2% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.71%, while the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of -2.47%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.11% [1]. - Among the theme indices, only the Building Materials Index fell by -0.56%. The rest of the theme indices rose, with the Petroleum and Chemical Index having the largest increase of 1.73% and the Black Raw Materials Index having the smallest increase of 0.24% [1]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Methanol index had the largest increase of 3.22%, and the Silver index had the largest decline of -3.53% [1][4]. 2. Market Data - The closing price of the Nanhua Commodity Index today is 3058.40, compared to yesterday's 3052.10, with a daily increase of 0.20% and an annualized return rate of 20.07% [3]. 3. Industry Chain and Single - Variety Index Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, the Methanol index rose 3.22%, while Coal fell 0.19% [4][5]. - In the agricultural products sector, Rapeseed had an increase of 1.70%, followed by Rapeseed Meal with 0.38%, Palm Oil with 1.08%, and Canola Oil with 1.30%. Corn had a slight increase of 0.07% [7]. - In the black sector, LPG rose 0.54% and Crude Oil rose 1.38% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals faced downward pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 0.28%, Shanghai Silver down 0.85%, Platinum down 4.78%, and Palladium down 5.23% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has eased. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - Iran is considering the US cease - fire proposal but has no intention to negotiate. Trump said that the US - Iran negotiation has made progress, and the media reported that the US has submitted a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran [1]. - In February, US import prices had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained interest rates this month, stating that the Iran war makes the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, the unemployment rate will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027 [1]. - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; Palladium's short - term demand remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly oscillating in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4503.30 per ounce, up 0.63% from the previous day and down 6.65% from last week; London gold was at $4564.55 per ounce, up 3.42% from the previous day and down 6.27% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 995.98 yuan per gram, down 1.77% from the previous day and down 6.22% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 989.77 yuan per gram, down 2.43% from the previous day and down 6.84% from last week [2]. - Other data: Comex gold open interest was 411388 lots, Shanghai Gold main contract open interest was 170696 lots, Gold T + D open interest was 45964 lots; LBMA gold inventory was 9210 tons, Comex gold inventory was 1000 tons, Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 105920 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1066.99 tons; Shanghai Gold registered warehouse receipts were 105 tons [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $71.45 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.27% from last week; London silver was at $73.17 per ounce, up 4.57% from the previous day and down 6.91% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17472 yuan per kilogram, down 3.53% from the previous day and down 2.85% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 17292 yuan per kilogram, down 4.57% from the previous day and down 3.88% from last week [4]. - Other data: Comex silver open interest was 114758 lots, Shanghai Silver main contract open interest was 3299850 lots, Silver T + D open interest was 2872224 lots; LBMA silver inventory was 27065 tons, Comex silver inventory was 10227 tons, Shanghai Silver inventory was 370 tons, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was 301 tons, and the total visible inventory was 37955 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 9301 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings were 15513.67 tons; Shanghai Silver registered warehouse receipts were 362495 kilograms [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6][7]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.47% from last week; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day and down 0.66% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day and down 1.75% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day and down 1.82% from last week [7]. - Other data: NYMEX platinum open interest was 34868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and down 5.91% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 7239 lots [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day and down 5.37% from last week; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and down 2.97% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day and down 3.73% from last week [8]. - Other data: NYMEX palladium open interest was 14847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and up 0.53% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and up 19.79% from last week; CFTC managed - fund net long position was - 362 lots [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit was 3.75%, discount rate was 3.75%, reserve balance interest rate was 3.65%, Fed total assets were $67071.04 billion, M2 year - on - year growth was 4.88%, 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.62%, US dollar index was 99.64, US Treasury yield spreads (3 - month to 10 - year) was - 0.11, US Treasury yield spreads (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.60, US - EU yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 1.74, US - China yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 3.05 [9]. - US inflation data: CPI year - on - year was 2.40%, CPI month - on - month was 0.50%, core CPI year - on - year was 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month was 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year was 2.83%, core PCE price index year - on - year was 3.06%, 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.40%, 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.20 [9]. - US economic growth data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.10%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 0.70, unemployment rate was 4.40%, non - farm payrolls monthly change was - 9.20 million, labor force participation rate was 61.90%, average hourly wage growth was 3.80%, weekly working hours were 34.30, ADP employment was 6.30 million, initial jobless claims were 20.50 million, job openings were 711.00 million, Challenger job cuts were 4.83 million [9]. - US real estate market data: NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 409.00 million units, new home sales were 48.00 million units, new home starts were 104.30 million units [9]. - US consumption data: Retail sales year - on - year growth was 2.08%, retail sales month - on - month growth was 0.03%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.25%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth was 0.38%, personal savings as a percentage of disposable income was 4.50 [10][11]. - US industrial data: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 1.44%, industrial production index month - on - month growth was 0.15%, capacity utilization rate was 76.29%, new orders for durable goods were $792.65 billion, new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth was 5.34% [11]. - US trade data: Exports year - on - year growth was 9.68%, exports month - on - month growth was - 17.23%, imports year - on - year growth was - 26.33%, imports month - on - month growth was - 2.30, trade balance was - $54.5 billion [11]. - US economic survey data: ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.40, ISM services PMI was 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.40, Markit services PMI was 51.10, University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 55.50, small business optimism index was 98.80, US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's was 2308.50 tons, the US's was 8133.46 tons, and the world's was 36458.24 tons [11]. - IMF foreign exchange reserve proportion: US dollar was 56.32%, euro was 21.13%, RMB was 2.12%, global was 25.94% [11]. - Gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio: China's was 8.34%, the US's was 81.98% [11]. - Geopolitical risk index was 335.15, VIX index was 25.33, CRB commodity index was 356.41, offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8943 [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 375 - 400 range in April 2026 is 93.8%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest - rate ranges gradually increases [13].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Spot buyers are advised to actively fix prices at lower levels, and attention should be paid to the release of the estimated planting area of US soybeans at the end of the month [1]. - The oil and fat sector remains strong. Future focus should be on the US biofuel blending obligation volume and the development of the Middle East situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is estimated to reach 184.7 million tons, with the planting area estimated at 49.1 million hectares (an increase of 300,000 hectares from the previous forecast) and the national average soybean yield rising from 62.5 bags per hectare to 62.7 bags per hectare [1]. - The estimated soybean export volume from Brazil in March 2026 is 15.87 million tons, a 0.9% increase from March 2025. The export volume from March 15 - 21 was 3.53 million tons, and the expected export volume from March 22 - 28 is 4.26 million tons. The total export volume in the first three months of this year is 27.11 million tons [1]. - Trump's visit to China in May 14 - 15, 2026, provides a framework for US soybean demand. The resumption of Brazilian soybean shipments and the expected increase in the planting area of US soybeans put pressure on US soybeans [1]. 3.2. Oils - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as Iran rejects the US cease - fire request, supports oil prices and boosts the demand for BMD crude palm oil in the biofuel industry. The support level for BMD crude palm oil futures is estimated at 4,454 ringgit per ton [2]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 was 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month [2]. - Trump's social media messages influence the short - term trends of crude oil and the oil and fat sector. The situation of Iran and the upcoming announcement of US biofuels affect the market [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For silver options, the closing price of the ag2606 contract increased by 2.50% to 17085 yuan, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest. The implied volatility is above the annual average, and the open interest PCR is at a low level. The pressure level is 37600, and the support level is 15000 [3][6]. - For gold options, the closing price of the au2604 contract decreased by 1.57% to 977.28 yuan, also with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. The implied volatility is above the annual average, and the open interest PCR is at a relatively low level. The pressure level is 1200, and the support level is 904 [16][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Silver Options - **Market Data**: The latest price of the ag2606 contract is 17085 yuan, up 418 yuan or 2.50% from the previous day. The trading volume is 1247890 lots, a decrease of 11431 lots, and the open interest is 211635 lots, a decrease of 11086 lots [3]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of silver call options is 515855 lots, an increase of 106715 lots, and the open interest is 162113 lots, a decrease of 9059 lots. The trading volume of silver put options is 544096 lots, a decrease of 32357 lots, and the open interest is 123824 lots, an increase of 4978 lots. The trading volume PCR is 1.05, a decrease of 0.35, and the open interest PCR is 0.76, an increase of 0.07 [4]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The at - the - money strike price of the ag2604 contract is 17200. The pressure level is 37600, the support level is 15000, the weighted implied volatility is 125.45%, a decrease of 13.00%, the annual average implied volatility is 47.03%, and HISV20 is 91.83% [5]. - **Option Strategies**: For directional strategies, construct a bear put spread strategy to obtain directional returns. For volatility strategies, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value returns and keep the delta of the position neutral, such as S_AG2606P16000, S_AG2606C18000 [7]. 3.2 Gold Options - **Market Data**: The latest price of the au2604 contract is 977.28 yuan, down 15.62 yuan or 1.57% from the previous day. The trading volume is 282408 lots, a decrease of 104014 lots, and the open interest is 54345 lots, a decrease of 8419 lots [16]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of gold call options is 174083 lots, an increase of 1990 lots, and the open interest is 76131 lots, a decrease of 3264 lots. The trading volume of gold put options is 188788 lots, a decrease of 13050 lots, and the open interest is 43001 lots, an increase of 328 lots. The trading volume PCR is 1.08, a decrease of 0.09, and the open interest PCR is 0.56, an increase of 0.03 [17]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The at - the - money strike price of the au2604 contract is 976. The pressure level is 1200, the support level is 904, the weighted implied volatility is 74.75%, a decrease of 5.34%, the annual average implied volatility is 27.34%, and HISV20 is 43.96% [18]. - **Option Strategies**: For directional strategies, construct a bear put spread strategy to obtain directional returns. There is no volatility strategy recommended [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.35% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, rebar demand is continuously improving, while supply is weakly stable. The fundamentals are seasonally improving, and strong raw materials provide cost support, pushing the steel price back to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, the strength of demand improvement is uncertain, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The main contract price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.45% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, the demand for hot-rolled coils has recovered well. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have improved, and strong raw materials provide cost support, pushing the price back to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, demand concerns remain, and the upward driving force is weakening under the high inventory situation. The subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, energy shortages have raised concerns about overseas mine production, and supply disruptions support the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the overvalued ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Transportation Investment**: From January to February, China's highway and waterway fixed - asset investment was 272.928 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. Among them, highway construction investment was 244.933 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%, and waterway construction investment was 27.995 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [7]. - **Air - conditioner Market**: In the first quarter of 2026, after a short - lived "spring" of policy stimulus and consumption recovery at the beginning of the year, the air - conditioner market failed to continue the recovery trend. In February, the retail volume of air - conditioners was 2.33 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 25.3%, and the retail sales were 7.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%. The latest production scheduling data shows that in April 2026, the total domestic air - conditioner production scheduling decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, with the domestic sales production scheduling decreasing by 6.8% year - on - year, and exports also decreasing by 12.6% year - on - year under multiple factors [8]. - **Steel Production**: In mid - March 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.27 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.8% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181,400 tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 198,400 tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous ten - day period [9]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; the national average was 3,333 yuan, down 4 yuan. Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,240 yuan, unchanged; the national average was 3,329 yuan, down 1 yuan. Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,980 yuan, unchanged, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,190 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference was 100 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,000 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: PB fines at Shandong ports were priced at 788 yuan, up 3 yuan; Tangshan iron concentrate (wet - based) was 772 yuan, up 5 yuan. Ocean freight from Australia was 10.85 yuan, down 0.64 yuan; from Brazil was 30.03 yuan, down 0.24 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.98 yuan, down 0.62 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 106.50 yuan, down 2.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The active contract closed at 3,128 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%. The highest price was 3,138 yuan, and the lowest was 3,125 yuan. The trading volume was 406,440 lots, a decrease of 187,168 lots, and the open interest was 1,167,209 lots, a decrease of 40,108 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The active contract closed at 3,305 yuan, a decrease of 0.45%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, and the lowest was 3,301 yuan. The trading volume was 214,049 lots, a decrease of 88,281 lots, and the open interest was 962,265 lots, a decrease of 40,839 lots [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The active contract closed at 817.0 yuan, an increase of 0.18%. The highest price was 823.0 yuan, and the lowest was 808.0 yuan. The trading volume was 216,414 lots, a decrease of 162,235 lots, and the open interest was 408,026 lots, a decrease of 6,288 lots [14]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and inventory has been continuously reduced. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 54,600 tons month - on - month, and supply has shrunk. However, the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, and its sustainability needs to be monitored. At the same time, rebar demand has continued to improve seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 172,800 tons month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year. Other demand indicators are still average, and there is no substantial change in the downstream. The strength of future demand improvement is uncertain. The subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have continued to rise. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continued to rise. The inventory level is still high, and the supply pressure has been relieved to a limited extent. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coils has good resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 31,200 tons month - on - month, but the high - frequency trading volume has declined from its peak. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level. Attention should be paid to the intensification of contradictions, and there are continuous overseas disturbances, and export performance is average. Demand concerns remain. The subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron Ore**: There have been changes in both supply and demand. Steel mills have actively resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both increased significantly month - on - month, in line with expectations. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability is limited, and the contradictions in the steel market have not been resolved. The room for improvement in iron ore demand may be limited. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased slightly, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to increase. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to be stable, and domestic ore production is recovering. Iron ore supply is increasing steadily. The subsequent trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by the Middle - East situation, with geopolitical factors causing uncertainties and volatility in various commodity markets [2][3][4] - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and short - term market trends are mainly in a state of shock adjustment Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The Middle - East situation brings uncertainties, market sentiment recovers slowly, the downside space is limited, and it mainly shows shock adjustment in the short term [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The Middle - East situation eases temporarily, trading power in the bond market is insufficient, and it maintains a narrow - range shock pattern in the short term [2] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: Geopolitical premiums continue to decline, the market turns to the off - season supply - demand fundamentals, the new main contract is under pressure to shock, and it maintains a weak pattern in the short term [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price fluctuates weakly in the short term, and there is still value for medium - to - long - term layout [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices maintain shock fluctuations, the short - term rebound is limited, and they mainly show low - level shocks [5] - **Copper**: The pressure level moves up, the far - month contract price gradually recovers, and the high - volatility state continues [5] - **Aluminum**: It shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and the price continues to shock [6] - **Alumina**: The price fluctuates around 3000 yuan, and the trend is mainly shock adjustment [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7] - **Zinc**: It mainly follows the sector to shock, and attention should be paid to the inventory turning point at low prices [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Policy disturbances strengthen the price bottom, and supply - demand and policies jointly drive the market [8] - **Tin**: The price continues to rebound, and it is regarded as a shock in the short term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is loose, the demand is stable, and the market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The core contradiction is supply - demand imbalance, and the market is dominated by high inventory and insufficient demand [10][11] - **Lead**: The price is expected to shock strongly in the future [11] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost support is strong, but the upward space is limited, and real - estate and infrastructure policies support the demand [12] - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by cost and tight spot, but is suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They follow the energy expectations to fluctuate, and it is difficult to rise continuously beyond the fundamentals [13] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The cost support at the bottom gradually strengthens, and attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on the mining area [14][15] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The short - term is disturbed by news, and the fluctuation range converges [16] - **Fuel Oil**: The market weakens in stages, but the overall supply - tight logic remains unchanged [16] - **Asphalt**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are the core factors, overriding its own fundamentals [17] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The short - term shocks are strong, focusing on the closure duration of the strait and supply reduction [17] - **LPG**: It fluctuates in the short term with multiple factors intertwined [18] - **PP Propylene**: The price is difficult to return to the pre - event level, and it is mainly in a wait - and - see state in the short term [18] - **Plastic**: It shows a weak shock in the short term, and the supply - demand and geopolitical factors jointly act [19] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber rises and then falls, the natural rubber shocks and stabilizes, and it is expected to shock and stabilize in the medium - to - long - term [19] - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure is continuous, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high [20][21] - **Glass**: The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space, and the demand needs to be verified [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply pressure eases, the demand support is stable, and the price maintains a range - shock pattern [22] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The price is at a low - level shock, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with insufficient rebound power [23] - **Oilseeds**: The short - term spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is repaired [24][25] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the progress of US - Iran negotiations [25] - **Cotton**: The price has fallen, but there is still support below, and attention should be paid to US cotton export [25] - **Sugar**: The price maintains a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of export demand after the geopolitical situation eases [26] - **Eggs**: The price shows a narrow - range shock, and the cost and supply - demand jointly dominate the trend [26] - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure above, and it mainly shows a low - level shock and bottom - building [27][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience volatile adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA10 resistance level [3] - On the macro - front, the situation between the US and Iran is complex. Iran refuses the US ceasefire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiations are ongoing and productive [3] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports. Tin ore supply tension shows signs of easing, but refined tin production may be affected as most enterprises have low raw material inventories. Import pressure is increasing due to growing Indonesian exports. On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive up solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among holders, increased downstream buying at low prices, and significant inventory declines in the domestic market, while LME inventory has increased and the spot premium has decreased [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 348,790 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3,640 yuan; the 5 - 6 month contract closing price is - 180 yuan, with an increase of 180 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 44,820 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 1,030 US dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai Tin is 14,757 lots, a decrease of 4,137 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures is - 6,655 lots, an increase of 498 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 8,780 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 10,042 tons, a decrease of 2,472 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant is 7,757 tons, a decrease of 387 tons [3] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 352,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 354,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,660 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 5,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 9,440 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 146 US dollars/ton, an increase of 99 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 341,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,150 yuan, and its processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 345,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,150 yuan, and its processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, an increase of 757.7 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 224,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,220 yuan. The cumulative production of tinplate (strip) is 1.6742 million tons, an increase of 145,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons [3] Industry News - The situation of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Iran refuses the US ceasefire proposal, but the White House says the negotiations are ongoing and productive. Iran's military is prepared for further escalation of the situation [3] - Iran states that non - belligerent countries' ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines resumes new booking business to some Middle - East countries, but its ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now [3] - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China is 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. The installed capacity of solar power generation is 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power is 650 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [3] - A Federal Reserve official believes that the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy and suggests gradual interest rate cuts this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year is raised to 2.7% due to the impact of oil prices [3] - European Central Bank President Lagarde says the ECB will take decisive action if energy cost surges lead to broader inflation, and is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai zinc to fluctuate and adjust, and suggests paying attention to the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 23,070 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the spread between the May - June contracts was -10 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The LME three - month zinc quote was 3,081 US dollars/ton, up 42.5 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc was 181,937 lots, down 4,363 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was -3,299 lots, down 2,396 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt was 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 152,266 tons, up 4,918 tons; the LME inventory was 116,475 tons, down 625 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,840 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,730 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract was -230 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was -20.74 US dollars/ton, up 4.02 US dollars [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was 29,000 tons, up 55,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 9,200 tons, up 84,300 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production was 1.0104 million tons, down 59,600 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume was 414,000 tons, down 180,800 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 4,518.01 tons, down 19,594.63 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 3,866.38 tons, up 1,847.88 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory was 219,700 tons, down 9,200 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.4 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.38 million tons, down 30,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area was 50.839 million square meters, down 536.86 million square meters; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, down 540.2771 million square meters [3] - The automobile production was 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 18.76%, down 0.67%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 18.76%, down 0.67% [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 23.45%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 20.47%, up 0.03% [3] 7. Industry News - The negotiation between the US and Iran is uncertain. Iran rejects the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House says the negotiation is ongoing and productive. The Iranian military says it may open other fronts if the enemy takes ground action [3] - Iran's permanent mission to the UN says non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines resumes new bookings to some Middle - East countries but ships won't pass through the Strait of Hormuz [3] - As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, up 15.9% year - on - year. The installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, up 33.2% year - on - year; the installed capacity of wind power was 650 million kilowatts, up 22.8% year - on - year [3] 8. Macro - level Information - The Fed governor says the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy and the Fed should cut interest rates to the neutral level this year. The inflation forecast for this year is raised to 2.7% due to the oil price shock [3] - The ECB President says the ECB will take decisive action if the soaring energy costs lead to broader inflation, and is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [3] 9. Viewpoint Summary - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but the domestic zinc ore has seasonal production cuts. The domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore increases, and the processing fees at home and abroad remain low. However, the sulfuric acid price is rising, and the domestic smelters' profits are expanding. After the festival, the smelters' enthusiasm for resuming production is expected to increase [3] - The Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window has closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are slowly recovering without obvious increments. The policy support in the automobile and other fields brings some bright spots [3] - The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and the downstream purchases are still weak. The spot premium is at a low level, and the domestic social inventory has decreased slightly. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased and the price is fluctuating, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3]