Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a new generation of digital RMB (e-CNY) framework starting in 2026, transitioning from digital cash to digital deposit currency, which will enhance its role in financial infrastructure and broaden its application scenarios [1][5]. Group 1: Transition from 1.0 to 2.0 - Digital RMB 1.0 was primarily a cash-like payment instrument (M0) and did not pay interest, designed to avoid direct competition with bank deposits [7]. - The upgrade to Digital RMB 2.0 will shift its positioning to a deposit currency (M1), allowing it to generate "currency derivation capacity" and providing deposit insurance similar to traditional bank deposits [3][4]. - The transition is driven by the need for a mechanism that aligns rights and responsibilities, as well as the acceleration of international monetary order restructuring in 2025 [2][11]. Group 2: Key Features of Digital RMB 2.0 - Digital RMB 2.0 introduces an interest-bearing mechanism for real-name wallets, while anonymous wallets will not earn interest [4]. - The requirement for banks to hold 100% reserves for digital RMB wallets will be replaced by a system that allows banks to manage these balances as part of their asset-liability operations [4][8]. - The new framework will enable banks to offer a wider range of financial products, transforming digital RMB from a cost center to a commercially viable liability [11] . Group 3: Application Scenarios and Technological Empowerment - Digital RMB 2.0 will expand its application scenarios beyond retail payments to include cross-border transactions, smart contracts, and various financial management solutions [5][6]. - The integration of "smart contracts" will facilitate automatic execution and targeted settlement in cross-border trade, enhancing the efficiency and security of fund flows [6][7]. - Specific use cases include labor protection in construction through "digital work orders," enterprise financial solutions, and government administrative payments [5]. Group 4: Internationalization and Competitive Advantage - The digital RMB's cross-border payment platform, "Shubida," will significantly reduce transaction costs and settlement times, enhancing the competitiveness of the RMB in international payments [6][7]. - The PBOC's proactive approach positions digital RMB as a leader in the global central bank digital currency (CBDC) landscape, with 85% of surveyed central banks exploring CBDCs [7][8]. - The upgrade is expected to leverage first-mover advantages to support the internationalization of the RMB and integrate deeper into the global payment system [7].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 48.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term on March 9, with an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 48.5 billion yuan. On the same day, 135 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a warm funding condition, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly rising to around 1.32%. The overnight quotes on the anonymous click system (X-repo) remained at 1.3%, indicating sufficient supply. In the overseas market, the overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. was 3.66% [5]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among national and major joint-stock banks was around 1.56%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Yield Trends - The yields on major interbank bonds showed a downward trend, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 1.11%, marking the largest decline in nearly seven months. The 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell by 0.21%, 0.14%, and 0.04%, respectively [12]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1% month-on-month, the highest in nearly two years, and by 1.3% year-on-year, also the highest in three years. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking five consecutive months of increase, while the year-on-year decline was 0.9%, with the rate of decline narrowing for three consecutive months [13]. Group 6: Legislative Developments - The work report submitted for review at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress highlighted new legislative focuses for 2026, including the formulation of a state-owned assets law and amendments to bankruptcy and tax collection laws. Additionally, laws related to financial stability and anti-corruption will be developed [13]. Group 7: Global Macro Developments - U.S. President Trump indicated that the war with Iran may soon conclude, stating that it has progressed faster than expected. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss the potential coordinated release of emergency oil reserves in response to rising oil prices due to conflicts in the Gulf region [16].

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Report - Gold and Silver" [1] Core Viewpoint - The end - time of the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran determines the price of precious metals. If the conflict doesn't ease, the price of precious metals will be under pressure; if it eases, the price may be supported in the medium - long term. The investment strategy is to wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions, try to go long on the "gold - silver ratio" at low prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of gold and silver in different markets [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US public debt scale is 38.87 trillion dollars, an increase of 103.724 billion dollars from last week. The CBO estimates the fiscal budget deficits in 2025, 2026 and 2027 to be 1.775, 1.853 and 1.887 trillion dollars respectively, and it may reach 3.1 trillion dollars by 2036 due to increased interest expenses [10] - The Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury's general account cash may reach about 1.025 trillion dollars in April and then decline in May [11] - The OFR financial stress index rose significantly, with credit, stock valuation and volatility increasing month - on - month, and safe assets decreasing [13] - The US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is lower than the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. The Fed provided 9 billion dollars of liquidity support through the standing repurchase facility (SRF), making the SOFR fall and the inter - bank market liquidity stable [17] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased (decreased). As of March 4, the rediscount loan was 4.713 billion dollars (increase) and the seasonal loan was 0 dollars (decrease) [19] - US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased due to inflation concerns caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields increased slightly, and the implied inflation expectations also increased [21][23][26] - The difference between US long - term and short - term Treasury yields is positive. The difference between 10 - year and 3 - month (2 - year) Treasury yields is 0.46% (0.59%) and increased (remained flat) month - on - month [30] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases in the US is 0.01%. The weekly rates of industrial and commercial loans, residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, credit card consumer loans, car purchase consumer loans, other loans and leases are - 0.11%, - 0.01%, - 0.14%, - 0.27%, 0.14% and 0.33% respectively, with the weekly rates of car loans and other loans and leases increasing month - on - month [34] - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales is 7%, higher than last week, indicating relatively prosperous consumer spending [38] - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased. The 15 - year (30 - year) mortgage fixed rate decreased (increased). Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and launch a 200 - billion - dollar mortgage - backed securities purchase plan [41] - As of February 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the US is 213,000, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, and the number of continued jobless claims is 1.868 million, higher than expected and the previous value. The US added - 92,000 non - farm jobs in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, higher than expected and the previous value [44] - The difference between US and German (Japanese) Treasury yields decreased (increased). The euro - US dollar (US dollar - RMB) exchange rate decreased (increased) [47][48] - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index increased, and the volatility of the gold ETF decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Price Difference and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased. The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE decreased [56][58][61] - The domestic - foreign gold futures (spot) price difference is at a relatively low level. The gold basis is negative and in a reasonable range. The gold futures near - far contract price difference is negative and in a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [63][66][67] - The 1 - month lease rate of London silver decreased, indicating a possible easing of the global silver supply shortage [70] - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased. The iShare silver ETF holdings decreased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE and SGE decreased [72][74][76] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price is at a relatively high level. The overseas silver basis is negative and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. The COMEX silver near - far month contract price difference is negative and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver near - far month contract price difference is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see for most arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to short - term light - position long - position opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [80][83][84] - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is far below the 10% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term light - position long - position opportunities for the "gold - silver ratio" [87] - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is equal to the 90% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to hold short positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously or take profit at low prices [90] - The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) is higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to hold long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously or take profit at high prices [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - From March 2 - 6, due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the bond market oscillated narrowly. Credit bond yields declined across the board, with medium - to long - term bonds performing better. The yields of 5 - 10 - year AA+ and AA and 5 - year AA(2) urban investment bonds dropped by 4 - 6bp, and the spreads narrowed by 2 - 4bp, while the spreads of 1 - 3 - year bonds widened passively by 1 - 3bp [1]. - Since 2026, in a volatile bond market environment, credit bonds have shown strong performance, with yields dropping significantly. High - elasticity credit varieties such as long - term general credit bonds and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have achieved good holding returns. However, the current overall credit spreads are at relatively low levels, and the spread protection space for some long - term general credit bonds is thin [2]. - If there is no incremental positive news in the bond market, long - end interest rates may enter a state where they cannot decline further, and the volatility of high - elasticity varieties such as long - term credit and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may increase. If the capital interest rate remains stable after the Two Sessions, the leverage strategy can continue to be used to increase returns, as medium - and short - term credit bonds still have a certain carry trade space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - From March 1 - 8, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive, with district - level platforms contributing the main increment. The issuance sentiment improved, and the issuance interest rates generally declined. In the secondary market, the yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board, with medium - to long - term varieties performing better, and the spreads showed a differentiated performance [27][31]. - In terms of broker transactions, medium - and low - grade varieties performed better, and some entities had active low - valuation transactions [35]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds - Since March, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds have increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment has improved, and the issuance proportion of 1 - 3 - year and over - 5 - year bonds has increased, while the issuance interest rates have increased across the board. From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment has warmed up, the proportion of medium - to long - term varieties in transactions has decreased, and the proportion of high - grade transactions has rebounded [37][39]. 3.3 Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - From March 2 - 6, there were no new issuances of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, the yields of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally declined slightly, with short - term varieties having a larger decline. The spreads widened passively, and bonds with a term of 2 years and above underperformed general credit bonds, while 1 - year bonds outperformed [42]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the trading sentiment of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has significantly warmed up, and the term structure of transactions has changed in different ways for different types of banks [45].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On March 6, the capital market showed a situation where the capital side remained loose, the bond market weakened, the convertible bond market followed the rise, and the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities were differentiated, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally rising [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools, and expand the scale of re - loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 - 1000 billion yuan [4]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with the expenditure total, new government bond scale, and central transfer payments to local governments reaching new highs, and launching a package of policies to promote domestic demand [5]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will set up a national - level merger fund, expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.4278 trillion US dollars, an increase of 2.87 billion US dollars from the end of January, and gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month [8]. - **International News** - In February, the US non - farm employment decreased by 92,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage increased, intensifying stagflation concerns [9][10]. - In January, US retail sales decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the first negative growth since October 2025 [11]. - **Commodities** - On March 6, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and NYMEX natural gas futures prices increased. COMEX spot gold also rose [12]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations** - On March 6, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan [14]. - **Funding Rates** - On March 6, the capital side remained loose. DR001 rose 4.94bp to 1.319%, and DR007 fell 0.58bp to 1.415% [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On March 6, the bond market weakened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.50bp to 1.7880%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 0.25bp to 1.9540% [19]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 3 - year 25进出13(增11) was issued with a scale of 6 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.5543%, a full - field multiple of 4.26, and a marginal multiple of 1.74. The 30 - year 26附息国债02(续2) was issued with a scale of 34 billion yuan, a winning yield of 2.2756%, a full - field multiple of 5.15, and a marginal multiple of 2.1 [21]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities** - On March 6, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H3 万科 01" fell more than 24%, and several other bonds of Vanke rose [21]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Many companies such as Agile Group, Oriental Fashion, Lingnan Co., Ltd., and Sunac Real Estate announced debt - related issues [22]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes** - On March 6, the A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market also strengthened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.19%, and 0.36% respectively [23]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On March 9, Changgao Convertible Bond will start online subscription. On March 6, Yuhetian's convertible bond issuance was approved, and several convertible bonds announced conditions such as approaching the conversion price downward revision and early redemption [28]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On March 6, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities were differentiated. The 2 - year yield fell 1bp to 3.56%, and the 10 - year yield rose 2bp to 4.15%. The 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year yield spreads both expanded by 3bp [26][27]. - **European Bond Market** - On March 6, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally rose. Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK increased by 1bp, 4bp, 7bp, 5bp, and 9bp respectively [30]. - **Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on March 6, the daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [32].

Economic Growth and Employment - The government aims for an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, with a focus on achieving better results in practice [4][5] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is targeted at around 5.5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs expected to be created [4][5] Financial Legislation - In 2026, the government plans to draft several financial laws, including the Financial Law and Financial Stability Law, to enhance the regulatory framework for a high-level socialist market economy [6][7] - The focus of the new legislation will be on strengthening regulation, stabilizing expectations, promoting compliance, optimizing structure, preventing risks, and expanding openness [7] Capital Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to promote qualitative improvements and reasonable growth in the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8][9] - Key goals include enhancing market resilience, improving regulatory enforcement, and increasing the quality and structure of listed companies [8][9] Short-term Trading Regulations - The CSRC has issued new regulations on short-term trading to facilitate long-term capital investment, effective from April 7, 2026 [10][11] - The regulations expand the scope of supervision to include various securities and aim to enhance market transparency and stability [11] Technology Insurance Development - A joint opinion from multiple government departments outlines 20 measures to accelerate the high-quality development of technology insurance, supporting major technological projects and innovation [12] - The focus is on optimizing insurance products and services related to key technology sectors, encouraging specialized operations in technology insurance [12] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase in public budget expenditure [13] - The increase in fiscal spending aims to support employment, improve livelihoods, and promote technological innovation [13] U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm employment data for February 2026 showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [14][15] - This decline is attributed to factors such as large-scale strikes and extreme weather conditions affecting various industries [14][15] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of February, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3.4278 trillion, with gold reserves rising to 74.22 million ounces, marking the 16th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [16] - The increase in reserves is supported by a stable domestic economy and a resilient export performance, despite external economic fluctuations [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current price increase has not driven corporate profit improvement, and monetary policy has difficulty responding to exogenous price changes, so the overall impact on interest rates is limited. The bank - led allocation market is still the main trend, which may be more obvious after the end of the quarter [5][30] Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - In February, affected by the Spring Festival misalignment effect, CPI increased significantly. The year - on - year increase expanded by 1.1 percentage points to 1.3%, the highest in nearly three years, and the month - on - month increase was 1.0%, the highest in nearly two years. After excluding the Spring Festival factor, the CPI year - on - year growth rate was 0.7%, showing that inflation was stable. Whether the CPI can continue to rise in March needs further observation [1][8] - The price of gold still has a significant impact on CPI. In February, the other supplies and services industry increased by 15.4% year - on - year. The continuous high growth of this item may be supported by the rising gold price. After excluding this item, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI in February were 0.9% and 1.1% respectively [1][10] - Affected by the Spring Festival, food prices rose, but the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. In February, food prices increased by 1.7% from a 0.7% decline in the previous month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.30 percentage points year - on - year. The month - on - month increase affected the CPI to rise by about 0.33 percentage points [16] - Affected by the concentrated release of consumer demand during the long Spring Festival holiday, service prices rose significantly. In February, non - food CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest since October 2022, and the service price increased by 1.6% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.75 percentage points [18] PPI Analysis - The recovery speed of industrial product prices is still high, mainly due to the rising prices of imported non - ferrous metals and crude oil. In February, the prices of non - ferrous metal mining and dressing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries increased by 7.1% and 4.6% month - on - month respectively. The prices of the domestic oil and gas extraction, refined petroleum products manufacturing, and organic chemical raw materials manufacturing industries increased by 5.1%, 0.7%, and 1.3% respectively. The prices of computing - related industries also continued to rise [2][20][21] - In February, the year - on - year decline of PPI for means of livelihood narrowed by 0.1 percentage point to 1.6%. Among them, the price of clothing decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, the price of general daily necessities decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, the price of durable consumer goods decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the price of food decreased by 1.8% year - on - year [21] Impact on the Bond Market - The market is concerned that the sharp rise in oil prices caused by the US - Iran conflict will push up inflation from the cost side, affect monetary policy, and form adjustment pressure on the bond market. Brent crude oil prices soared from $71.1 per barrel at the end of February 2026 to $94.4 per barrel on March 6, with a weekly increase of more than 30% [3][23] - The current K - shaped price increase may not have an obvious impact on interest rates. On the one hand, the price increase is concentrated in a few industries such as non - ferrous metals, and corporate profits have not improved, so the financing demand has not increased accordingly. On the other hand, the domestic monetary policy has limited ability to adjust to this input - type price change and may not tighten [4][27] - The current changes in oil prices and prices have limited impact on the bond market. The bank - led allocation market is the main trend, which may be more obvious after the end of the quarter. The lack of financing demand and high savings willingness lead to an increase in deposits and a decrease in loan growth. Banks are still in an environment short of assets, which will lead to loose funds and limit the upper limit of interest rates [5][30]

Economic Indicators - The comprehensive prosperity index has decreased to 99.84, indicating a mild fluctuation around the boom-bust line[1] - The consumer prosperity index is at 99.84, slightly down from previous weeks, reflecting a phase of adjustment in consumer momentum[1] - The investment prosperity index has improved to 99.93, showing signs of recovery despite still being in the contraction zone[1] - The export prosperity index stands at 100.03, remaining in the expansion zone, providing support to overall economic prosperity[1] - The production prosperity index has further declined to 99.76, indicating natural fluctuations in production activities[1] PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is at 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from January's 49.3%[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI has slightly increased to 49.5%, indicating stability in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index is at 49.5%, reflecting a slight decline from the previous value of 49.8%[2] - The decrease in PMI is attributed to seasonal disruptions from the extended Spring Festival holiday[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at approximately 51.5%, indicating robust performance in new energy sectors[2]

Group 1 - The current credit expansion in the US shows extreme structural differentiation, with growth concentrated in corporate loans while real estate credit is nearly stagnant [2][7][14] - Non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) serve as a key channel for bank funds to flow into AI infrastructure [2][15] - Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans are the primary source of financing for tech giants' AI capital expenditures, directly fueling corporate AI expansion [2][23] Group 2 - The US economic growth logic has shifted from consumption-driven to investment-driven, highlighting a structural contradiction between slowing consumption and expanding AI investments [2][26] - AI investments are generating structural inflationary pressures, starting from capital goods demand and spreading along the industrial chain to manufacturing and supporting infrastructure [2][35] - Labor resources are shifting from the information sector to manufacturing, with AI-driven manufacturing revival reshaping the employment structure [2][39] Group 3 - The US is leveraging geopolitical advantages to strengthen the petrodollar system, providing a medium-term basis for the dollar to strengthen, but this will suppress non-US economies [2][46] - In the context of a potential dollar rebound and rising geopolitical risks, trading strategies should focus on a "defensive" approach [2][46] - The long-term paths for the dollar system include AI-driven re-industrialization to repair the foundation through supply expansion, which may harm financial capital interests, or maintaining capital inflows through tech bubbles and debt expansion, which overdraws dollar credit [2][52][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market entered a window of speculation on monetary easing expectations last week, with interest rates showing a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are strongly supported by relatively loose capital interest rates, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years, and pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [2][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On March 5, the central bank announced a 3 - month (91 - day) 800 billion yuan repurchase operation. With 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchases maturing in March, a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan was achieved. As of March 6, the outstanding scale of 3 - month repurchases was 2.7 trillion yuan [5]. - In February, the central bank injected 50 billion yuan of liquidity into the market through open - market treasury bond trading, 50 billion yuan less than in January [7]. - The 2026 economic growth target is set at 4.5% - 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4%. New policy - based financial instruments worth 800 billion yuan will be issued, which is expected to boost fixed - asset investment [8]. - At the economic theme press conference on March 6, relevant departments elaborated on the macro - policy orientation for 2026. The NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank will work together to amplify the "combination punch" effect of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From March 2 to March 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, injecting 161.6 billion yuan in total, with 1.525 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.3634 trillion yuan. It is expected that 427.6 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from March 9 to March 13 [14]. - Despite the large - scale withdrawal of base currency by the central bank through short - term reverse repurchases at the beginning of March, the capital market remained generally loose. DR001 was below 1.3% for three days during the week. As of March 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.388%, 1.492%, 1.319%, and 1.415% respectively, with changes of 4.78BP, - 1.54BP, 0.05BP, and - 8.85BP compared to March 2 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 717.2 billion yuan, an increase of 263.25 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 587.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 78.77 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing scale of 129.21 billion yuan, an increase of 342.02 billion yuan from the previous week [22]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank CDs decreased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year inter - bank CDs of state - owned banks decreased by 4.13BP and 1.42BP respectively; those of joint - stock banks decreased by 2.93BP and 2.19BP respectively [28]. - In the secondary market, most - term inter - bank CDs showed a downward trend supported by relatively loose liquidity [29]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance total of 606.484 billion yuan, a maturity total of 488.205 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 118.279 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of treasury bonds and local bonds in the first week of March was slightly behind the same period [31]. - As of March 6, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2026 was about 0.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 2.02 trillion yuan, both higher than the average of the same period from 2022 - 2025 [32]. - The net supply of local bonds increased last week. Among them, 4 treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 1 billion yuan; 30 local bonds were issued, with a net financing of 256.229 billion yuan; 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 136.95 billion yuan [40]. - As of last week, 0.8 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds had been issued, with long - term and ultra - long - term bonds accounting for about 92.32%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales included Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Henan [43]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Last week, long - term bonds showed a volatile trend in the speculation of monetary easing expectations during the Two Sessions, and the yield curve steepened. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds remained above 9%, and their investment value gradually became prominent [32]. - The turnover rates of the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) increased last week. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250022) was 21.677 billion yuan, an increase of about 38.66% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 4.91%, an increase of about 1.53 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year CDB bond (250220) was 352.135 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.82% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 96.88%, an increase of about 55.67 percentage points [46]. - The average spread between the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the second - active bond (250016) was - 0.04BP; the average spread between the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) and the second - active bond (250215) widened compared to the previous week [48]. - The 10 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread reached 49.52BP, and the 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread widened to 99.54BP. The term spread may still widen [54]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed last week, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of March 6, the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the 10 - year treasury bond was 19.90BP, narrowing by 2.57BP from the previous week; the spread between the 30 - year local bond and the 30 - year treasury bond was 20.88BP, widening by 0.14BP from the previous week [57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leverage trading was generally at a high level. In the cash market, large banks strengthened their selling efforts, with an increased preference for holding treasury bonds within 5 years. Small and medium - sized banks continued to take profits on treasury bonds within 10 years. Insurance companies increased their buying efforts. Securities firms continued to net - buy treasury bonds between 5 - 10 years and tried to increase their positions in policy - financial bonds between 5 - 10 years. Funds still preferred policy - financial bonds [63][73]. - In January 2026, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.30%, a decrease of about 0.07 percentage points from December 2025. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in January 2026 were about 111.11%, 191.81%, and 132.51% respectively [63]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week. The average daily leverage trading volume was about 8.64 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 5.97% week - on - week; the settlement price of wire rod futures decreased by 5.71% week - on - week; the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 2.04% week - on - week; the cement price index decreased by 0.37% week - on - week; the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 2.02% week - on - week [88]. - The CCFI index decreased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.75% week - on - week [88]. - The wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.53% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 5.02% week - on - week [88]. - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.41% and 1.78% respectively week - on - week [88]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 6.92 [88]. 3.6 Outlook for the Future - The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are supported by loose capital, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years. Pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [90].