期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 绝对价格下滑现货市场并未明显好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-18.75 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元/吨至22280元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨25元/吨至105元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌240元/吨至22250 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌5元/吨至75元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌200元/ 吨至22210元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨35元/吨至35元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-01沪锌主力合约开于22380元/吨，收于22255元/吨，较前一交易日下跌180元/吨，全天交易日 成交178683手，较前一交易日增加17759手，全天交易日持仓134433手，较前一交易日减少5753手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22420元/吨，最低点达到22105元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the global industrial metal market is expected to remain in a loose cycle in the second half of the year, supporting price increases for industrial metals [1] - Domestic policy-driven demand is anticipated to gradually improve, leading to a release of demand elasticity for metals [1] - Supply constraints for metals like copper and aluminum are expected to continue, with a tightening supply-demand situation likely to further develop [1] Group 2 - For copper, the trend of shrinking supply elasticity is becoming evident, with processing fees continuing to decline and smelting profits under pressure, suggesting limited global copper supply growth in the second half [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with minimal production elasticity, while strong resilience in the new energy sector is expected to maintain demand [1] - The mining ETF tracks a non-ferrous metal mining index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry chain, which is closely related to commodity price fluctuations [1]

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | 20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | ...

Group 1 - Copper prices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai copper main contract closing above 80,000, driven by external market influences [1] - The Caixin PMI data returned above 50, indicating economic expansion, while the deadline for tariff negotiations between multiple countries and the US approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's Powell expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, although a potential cut in July remains on the table [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's mid-year smelting processing fee is at 0 yuan/ton, better than market expectations of negative values, but still the lowest in history, indicating ongoing tight supply expectations [1] - Overall demand remains cautious due to overseas macroeconomic concerns and domestic seasonal factors, despite low inventory levels providing short-term support [1] - LME inventory has stopped declining, and while spot premiums have slightly decreased, they remain high, indicating a need to monitor market sentiment [1] Group 3 - Aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels, with Shanghai aluminum showing strength due to the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - Despite concerns over future ore supply tightness, stable import ore prices and high inventory levels limit short-term impacts on alumina prices [1] - The overall surplus in the alumina market remains unchanged, with clear downward pressure, but low valuations suggest opportunities for short selling at high prices [1] Group 4 - Nickel prices saw slight gains in the night session, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - Nickel smelting is experiencing reduced capacity expansion due to losses, but the surplus situation is unlikely to improve in the short term [1] - Seasonal recovery in ore supply is weakening support for nickel ore prices, leading to a range-bound trading pattern for nickel prices [1]

Group 1 - The black metal sector is experiencing a compression in steel mill profits, with rebar prices being driven up by raw material fluctuations [1] - Current trading logic includes acceptable steel mill profitability, short-term strong pig iron output, and a decline in raw material supply leading to a rebound, while seasonal steel demand is weakening [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the upcoming vote on a new fiscal bill are increasing market sentiment towards dual easing in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Rebar price expectations remain stable, with inventory levels low and limited expectations for significant accumulation in the future [1] - The acceleration of special bond issuance in June is noted, but the allocation towards practical work funds is decreasing, and real estate sales are weakening [1] - Attention is required on the July Politburo meeting for potential new policy stimuli for the real estate sector, with cautious outlooks on rebar prices and rebound heights [1] Group 3 - Hot-rolled coil prices have shown a recent increase in year-on-year demand, but there are expectations of weakening in reality, leading to a contraction in the price difference between hot and cold rolled products [1] - The steel mills are experiencing weaker order intake, with exports increasing year-on-year, but a significant decline in June exports is anticipated [1] - The market sentiment is positively influenced by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but demand expectations remain under pressure [1] Group 4 - Iron ore prices are showing strength due to seasonal declines in shipments expected in July and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Global shipments and arrivals have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, while iron water output remains stable with strong profit margins for blast furnaces [1] - The trading strategy suggests a gradual shift to short positions after a rebound, with resistance levels for the September contract noted at 720-740 yuan and support levels at 680 yuan and 640-650 yuan [1]

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-7-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收跌 0.56%至 17108 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 8.36 万手。截至周二下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 7 至 2041 美元/吨，总持仓 15.09 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16925 元/吨，再生精铅 均价 16875 元/吨，精废价差 50 元/吨，废电动车电池均价 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/02 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 变化 70 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group, is undergoing a strategic transformation from traditional non-ferrous metallurgy to high-end lithium battery copper foil production, marking a significant shift towards new materials [1][2]. Group 1: Company Transformation - The copper foil production line at Yuguang Group produces ultra-thin copper foil with a thickness of only 4 micrometers, which is considered a hallmark of the company's transition to high-end materials [1]. - The company has evolved from a traditional smelting factory to a high-end lithium battery copper foil producer and supplier of high-purity metal new materials [1]. - The cleanroom environment in the copper foil production facility is maintained at a cleanliness level of 10,000, highlighting the company's commitment to quality [1]. Group 2: New Materials Development - Yuguang Group has established a new materials industry chain focused on high-purity metals, lead-zinc alloys, new energy materials, and rare metals, with over 260 types of lead-zinc alloy products and an annual output of nearly 300,000 tons [2]. - The company has achieved industry-leading standards with its 7N ultra-pure tellurium and 7N high-purity cadmium, showcasing its technological advancements [2]. - The company aims to accelerate its transformation into a new materials powerhouse, with plans for projects in copper, recycled lead, and a new materials research center, potentially reaching a revenue scale of 100 billion yuan [2].