Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission (ITC) have imposed a combined tariff rate of 825.92% on Chinese hexamine, effectively eliminating the possibility of direct exports to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Export Dynamics - The direct export model for Chinese hexamine is nearly "ineffective" due to the prohibitive costs associated with the tariffs, which would increase the cost of a $1 million shipment by over $8 million [2] - The export share of hexamine to the U.S. is expected to continue shrinking over the next 2-3 years as the U.S. maintains high-pressure "double anti" measures against Chinese chemical products [2] Group 2: Third-Country Transshipment - The industry is increasingly looking at third-country transshipment as a potential solution to bypass high tariffs, with countries like Turkey serving as key transshipment hubs [4] - Short-term, Turkey and Dubai are likely to become central nodes for hexamine transshipment, while Southeast Asian countries may join as regional trade cooperation deepens [4] Group 3: Industry Competition Landscape - There remains a rigid demand for hexamine in the U.S. market, particularly in the plastics, rubber additives, and pharmaceutical sectors [5] - The ability to successfully utilize transshipment models will be a critical factor for companies to maintain international orders [5] - Companies may consider investing in small-scale processing in transshipment countries, leading to a "re-manufacturing" model [5] - Exporters are likely to diversify their supply chains, reducing reliance on a single market and expanding into South America, Africa, and the Middle East [5] Group 4: Policy and Compliance Considerations - Transshipment must comply with the legal and trade policies of the transshipment countries, and the U.S. may enhance scrutiny of transshipment trade, raising compliance management requirements for companies [7] - Companies need to prioritize documentation, certificates of origin, and trade compliance to avoid potential legal risks [7] - Long-term, transparency and compliance will be crucial for the sustainability of the third-country transshipment model [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - Third-country transshipment is viewed as the most feasible solution under current conditions, but its effectiveness in overcoming U.S. tariff barriers will depend on market practices and policy developments over the coming years [9] - The future of hexamine exports is not only a result of tariff negotiations but also part of the broader reshaping of global supply chain dynamics [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] Core Viewpoints - The price center of ethylene glycol (EG) showed a weak consolidation, with the basis moderately strengthening. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$50/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port showed a mixed trend. The overall supply and demand in August - September are both in an increasing trend, with a slight inventory build-up in the balance sheet, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. [1][2] - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. [2] - The supply and demand of EG are both on the rise, with little fundamental contradiction. Under low inventory conditions, attention should be paid to cost changes. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,346 yuan/ton (a change of -23 yuan/ton, or -0.53% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,439 yuan/ton (a change of -19 yuan/ton, or -0.43% compared to the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$50/ton (a month - on - month increase of $0/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton). The syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences are provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 53.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main port last week were 14.1 tons, with a slight inventory build - up at the port. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 5.4 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary port are 4.3 tons. [1]

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - In July, rare earth product exports reached a record high for the year at 6,422 tons, a month-on-month increase of 69%, with magnets being the dominant product [1] - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide exceeded 600,000 yuan per ton, and the rare earth index rose by 6% in a single day [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased uncertainty in Myanmar mineral imports and a closure of the U.S. mineral window, potentially reducing annual imports by 40,000 tons (10%) [1] - Domestic indicators continue to be strictly controlled, and the supply of scrap materials is unlikely to increase in the short term due to price inversions [1] - Demand for magnetic materials has rebounded, with exports in June reaching 3,000 tons, and major companies have robust overseas orders [1] - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioners is expected to drive inventory restocking, with prices likely to continue rising in Q3 [1] Group 2: Semiconductor/Chip Industry - The domestic localization rate for semiconductor equipment and materials is increasing, with Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory's localization targets raised to 80% and 70%, respectively [2] - Huahong's acquisition of Huali's five factories is expected to increase annual revenue by 25% and net profit by 187%, with depreciation nearly complete, indicating room for revaluation [2] - Cambrian's 4 billion yuan private placement is expected to be completed within two months after approval, with domestic computing power gradually being "unlocked" as SMIC's processes advance [2] Group 3: AI Computing Chips - Haiguang Information is the only domestic company with both CPU and GPU capabilities, showing significant underlying synergy [3] - Jingjia Micro plans to take a controlling stake in Chengheng Micro, focusing on military drones and missiles while also developing software stacks for civilian clients [3] - Aibulu has increased its stake in Zhonghao Xinying to nearly 10%, with the latter's AI TPU performance exceeding NVIDIA's by 1.5 times, leading to a full transformation into AI chips [3] Group 4: Media and Broadcasting - The regulatory environment for the film and television industry has been significantly relaxed, allowing for the potential certification of backlog dramas [4] - The resumption of nationwide talent shows is marked by Mango Super Media's upcoming launch of "Voice of the Future," which aims to replicate the success of "Super Girl" [4] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The domestic market is at a critical point of restarting the inventory cycle, with U.S. durable goods inventory expected to return to positive year-on-year growth [5] - A reversal in overseas inventory cycles could lead to a demand explosion in certain sectors, with significant elasticity in chemical products [5] Group 6: Pharmaceuticals - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has been approved in the U.S. for treating F2-F3 stage MASH, marking a significant milestone for GLP-1 drugs in the liver disease market [6] - This approval establishes GLP-1's foundational role in MASH treatment and highlights the potential for multi-target therapies, providing new valuation anchors for domestic companies with differentiated pipelines [6] Group 7: Optical Communication Switches - Lumentum and Coherent have reported revenue from OCS optical switches, indicating a shift from proprietary use by companies like Google to commercial viability [7] - This development validates OCS technology as a feasible next-generation data center network architecture, with upstream core component manufacturers expected to benefit first [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China and South China regions continued to accumulate. With high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin will increase the olefin industry's operating rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was -103 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 665,628 lots, an increase of 42,183 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -132,231 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,968, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,295 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The East China - Northwest price spread was 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -101 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 262 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; CFR Southeast Asia was 324 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was -62 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 687,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; South China port inventory was 334,800 tons, an increase of 51,300 tons. Methanol import profit was 49.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38 yuan; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 82.4%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.05%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.15%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.06%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23 percentage points. The olefin operating rate was 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was -940 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 21.64%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.34%, a decrease of 4 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 2.06%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.11%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, with 45,000 tons of inventory accumulation in East China and 51,300 tons in South China. The port inventory continued to accumulate, with 236,000 tons of foreign vessel unloading recorded and a large amount of non - explicit unloading. As of August 13, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [3] Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate decreased slightly. After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Price Index - The wholesale and retail price indices for agricultural products in Zibo have increased, with notable fluctuations in vegetables and fruits [1][2] - Garlic prices have decreased slightly, with a wholesale average of 3.19 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg (7.89%) from last week, while retail prices remain stable at 5.13 yuan/kg [1] - Cucumber prices have risen significantly, with a wholesale average of 2.70 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg (22.73%), driven by reduced supply due to weather conditions and high demand from the catering industry [1] - Leek prices have increased, with a wholesale average of 1.30 yuan/kg, up 0.30 yuan/kg (30.00%), attributed to slower growth and reduced supply of quality leeks [2] - Cabbage prices have also risen, with a wholesale average of 1.00 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg (25.00%), due to adverse weather affecting vegetable production [2] - Pear prices have slightly decreased, with a wholesale average of 3.19 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (0.93%), as market demand shows seasonal recovery [3] - Overall, the supply of vegetables and fruits in Zibo is stable, with recommendations for consumers to purchase according to their needs [3] Group 2: Chemical Products Price Index - The Zibo chemical products price index is at 718.84, down from 721.70, indicating a slight decline [4] - The basic chemical products price index averages 708.16, down from 710.51, reflecting weak market conditions influenced by falling international oil prices [4] - The plastic products price index averages 744.34, down from 748.39, due to varying price trends among different plastic products [4] - The rubber products price index averages 548.27, up from 543.13, supported by strong synthetic rubber prices and tight supply of certain grades [4] Group 3: New Materials Price Index - The Zibo new materials price index is at 805.05, down from 808.07, indicating a downward trend [5] - The PC price index averages 758.32, down from 762.11, due to falling raw material prices [5] - The PA price index averages 678.37, down from 678.74, reflecting a stable but declining trend due to oversupply [5] - The PET bottle chip price index averages 894.20, down from 898.80, influenced by weak demand and declining raw material prices [5] Group 4: Natural Gas Price Index - The average LNG price in Zibo is 4192 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton (4.13%) from last week, due to increased competition from imported LNG [6] - The liquid natural gas price index is declining, while the pipeline natural gas index remains unchanged [6] - Future expectations indicate continued downward pressure on LNG prices due to weak downstream demand [6] Group 5: Cement Price Index - The average price for various types of cement in Zibo remains stable, with no significant changes reported [7] - Specific prices include 264 yuan/ton for bagged PC42.5 cement and 270 yuan/ton for bulk PC42.5 cement, indicating stability in the market [7] - The overall cement price index in Zibo shows no fluctuations, reflecting a steady market environment [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities and financial products presenting different trends. Commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Financial products are influenced by macro - economic data and policy orientations. - Investors should adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of different products, including holding options, going long or short, and paying attention to price resistance levels and inventory changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fluctuated. The SC09 contract was relatively weak, falling 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and oil prices further declined. Continue to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money crude oil options [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The US retail sales monthly rate announced on Friday was in line with expectations, and precious metals had limited fluctuations. After the positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend, the adjustment of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a September interest rate cut. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is advisable to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum declined slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up is stable, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The SHFE zinc has priced in the weak reality and expectations. The short - term directional signal is weak, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The lead price has limited downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions based on 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the end - of - life call option opportunities [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The market is expected to return to fundamentals. Pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - **Tin**: Both domestic and international tin prices rebounded last Friday. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - **Non - Ferrous Metal Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [7]. - **Energy - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and both LU and FU are under pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures fluctuated narrowly. The 8 - month production plan decreased, and the cost - side weakness puts pressure on BU [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, and the price is stabilizing. The futures are in a low - level oscillation [24]. - **Chemical Products** - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is loose. The market may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" demand is approaching [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is falling, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The futures are in a consolidation pattern. The supply increases, and the demand lacks upward drive [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene sales are weak, polyethylene production enterprises are inclined to raise prices, and polypropylene is under supply pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded and then declined. Pay attention to the oil price direction and demand recovery [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at 4400 yuan/ton. The short - term trend is low - level oscillation [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [33]. - **Glass**: The industry may accumulate inventory. Consider a low - long strategy near the cost [34]. - **20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for RU and a bullish strategy for NR and BR [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the short - term news is disturbing. The long - term supply pressure exists [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans & Bean Meal**: The USDA August report is bullish for US soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected, and bean meal is cautiously bullish [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Pay attention to the crop inspection results of US soybeans and policy changes in Indonesia. Increase the expected price fluctuation range [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed weather impact is small. The mid - term strategy is to be bullish, and the short - term trend is expected to be stable and oscillatory [39]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The recent auctions may drag down the price. Pay attention to the price difference with imported soybeans [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The US corn price is falling, and the domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The spot price may decline, and the futures can be hedged at high prices [42]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is rising seasonally. The futures still face over - capacity pressure [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [44]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving. Pay attention to whether the futures price can stop falling and stabilize [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp is oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Most broad - based indexes rose, and the policy focus is shifting to the structure. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures mostly fell. The yield curve may steepen in the future [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month macro - data showed a weakening pattern in both supply and demand, affected by multiple factors such as demand front - loading from stable growth, policy shift to structural adjustment, downward Kitchin cycle, and weather. Although the current situation doesn't impact the full - year macro - expectation due to the 5.3% H1 real GDP growth, a lack of policy support in stable growth, especially in the real estate sector, may lead to a pessimistic economic outlook [8]. - PTA demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts still suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly. Polyester's operating rate has been revised up, and the supply side has remained stable recently [9][10]. - PVC is in a weak trend. The newly announced anti - dumping duties in India will affect China's PVC export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is advisable to take a bearish stance and consider the opportunity of going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: PPI exceeding expectations has dampened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, causing silver to decline slightly. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [14][18][20]. - **Copper**: Lacking driving forces, the price fluctuation range has narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [14][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Inventory accumulation has become more obvious. The trend strength is - 1 [14][25][27]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory has supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [14][28][29]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [14][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum continues to converge, alumina shows a small sideways increase, and cast aluminum alloy is gradually showing off - season pressure. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's fundamentals oscillate within a narrow range, and one should be vigilant against news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [14][38][42]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances occur repeatedly, and it shows a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 1 [14][43][45]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has strong market sentiment, with amplified price fluctuations. Polysilicon has more news - related disturbances this week. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [14][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend strength is 1 [14][51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [14][54][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: The sector sentiment is weak, and they oscillate weakly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese are both 0 [14][59][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strengths of coke and coking coal are both 0 [14][64][66]. Others - **PTA**: Demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the peak - season impact on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly [9][10]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak trend. The Indian anti - dumping duties affect export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [11]. - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Commodity Prices - The price of crude oil on August 15, 2025, was $572.50 per ton, up 0.26% from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on August 15, 2025, was $826.00 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on August 18, 2025, was 6300 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol in East China on August 15, 2025, was 2347.50 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on August 15, 2025, was 290 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of CG on August 15, 2025, was 4374 yuan per ton, down 0.30% from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the nearby contract on August 15, 2025, was 4400 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene glycol in the East China market on August 15, 2025, was 4460 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. Price Differences - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts on August 15, 2025, was 33 yuan per ton, up from 20 yuan per ton previously [1]. - The basis difference on August 15, 2025, was 86 yuan per ton, up from 83 yuan per ton previously [1]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on August 15, 2025, was 52.46%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was 9.22% [1]. - The operating rate of the PTA industry chain on August 15, 2025, was 86.88%, and that of the textile machinery industry in the Yangtze River Delta was 57.80% [1]. Financial Conditions - The after - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on August 15, 2025, was 1512.98 yuan per ton, compared with 1536.66 yuan per ton previously [1]. Price Indexes - The price index of polyester on August 15, 2025, was 8650 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester chips on August 15, 2025, was 7125 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester staple fiber on August 18, 2025, was 6400 yuan per ton, up 0.8% from the previous value [1]. - The price index of bottle - grade chips on August 15, 2025, was 5900 yuan per ton, up 0.1% from the previous value [1].

Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,696.77, with a rise of 0.83% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,634.67, with a rise of 1.60% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,022.77, with a decline of 0.47% [3] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67% [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 3,801.78, down by 0.45% [4] - The NASDAQ closed at 11,247.58, down by 0.15% [4] Economic Indicators - In July, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7% [8] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year [8] Industry Analysis - The software industry saw a revenue of 7.06 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 11.9% [14] - The AI sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 422% increase in the number of projects awarded related to large models in July [14] - The semiconductor industry showed a 3.06% increase in July, with a year-to-date increase of 11.96% [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as insurance, robotics, banking, and semiconductors for short-term investment opportunities [8][12][13] - In the software sector, companies like Huada Jiutian and Runze Technology are highlighted for their growth potential [14] - The report recommends monitoring the agricultural chemicals, organic silicon, and polyester filament industries due to their benefits from anti-involution policies [17][20] Sector Performance - The chemical industry index rose by 4.51% in July, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The media sector saw a 35.97% increase in the total market value of public fund holdings in Q2 2025 [21] - The photovoltaic industry index increased by 9.73% in July, indicating a recovery from previous lows [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream start - up of EB has rebounded. The port inventory of pure benzene continues to decline slightly, the futures premium narrows, the import pressure does not increase further, but the downstream demand drops from its peak, and the subsequent inventory removal amplitude of pure benzene is small with a still high absolute inventory value. For styrene, the port inventory enters the seasonal decline cycle, the downstream start - up rises rapidly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream procurement before the peak season [1][3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 49 yuan/ton (+18), the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 10 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), and the spread between BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period should be reverse - arbitraged when it is high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 67 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spread between EB2509 - 2510 inter - period should be reverse - arbitraged when it is high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 188 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 171 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 76.8 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary, with the production profit of caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+15), that of phenol - acetone at - 689 yuan/ton (+0), that of aniline at - 161 yuan/ton (-262), and that of adipic acid at - 1517 yuan/ton (+36) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), and the EB - BZ spread should be narrowed when it is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.60 tons (-1.70 tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with the caprolactam operating rate at 93.72% (+5.31%), the phenol operating rate at 77.00% (+0.00%), the aniline operating rate at 71.57% (-1.89%), and the adipic acid operating rate at 61.70% (+7.30%) [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 148,800 tons (-10,200 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+3,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 82 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 127 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+0.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+15), and the operating rate is 93.72% (+5.31%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 689 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate of phenol is 77.00% (+0.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (-262), and the operating rate is 71.57% (-1.89%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1517 yuan/ton (+36), and the operating rate is 61.70% (+7.30%) [1]