Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The price of the main EG futures contract closed at 4,089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,126 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.10%. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $1/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -526 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons, up 5.0 tons. The inventory continued to accumulate [1]. - On the supply side, domestic EG production is at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the new device production, there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG futures contract closed at 4,089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,126 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.10%. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $1/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -526 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons, up 5.0 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week was 10.2 tons at the main ports and 2.5 tons at the secondary ports. The inventory continued to accumulate [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. There is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for different energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlooks are provided, including "weak and volatile", "volatile", and "weak - trending with volatility". 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal price increases support the coal - chemical industry, while China's port fees on US - related vessels negatively impact US crude oil physicals. The contrast between strong coal and weak oil prices makes the hedging between coal - chemical and oil - chemical industries potentially valuable again [2][3]. - For coal - chemical products, PVC, methanol, and urea are considered for long - positions, with PVC potentially being more stable in terms of cost. For oil - chemical products, olefins are short - positions, and the new styrene production device may face challenges due to high inventory [3]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market still takes crude oil as a reference and is expected to continue its weak - trending with volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Macro - factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated, and refinery operating rates have declined. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed, and the asphalt futures price is expected to be volatile. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined, and the supply of asphalt has increased, with high inventory pressure. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [12]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered a volatile mode. The reduction of geopolitical factors and the increase in supply have affected the price, and it is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil price and is volatile. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [14]. - **Methanol**: Slightly boosted by coal, it is in a wide - range volatile state. There is still value in going long at a low level, but the upside space is limited [25][26]. - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak, and it is expected to be volatile [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Supported by coal prices, it rebounds at a low level, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [20][22]. - **PX**: The futures price stops falling and rebounds, but the increase is limited, and the profit is repaired month - on - month. It is expected to fluctuate with costs and macro - sentiment [15]. - **PTA**: New devices are about to be put into production, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak and volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream speculative stocking promotes inventory reduction. The supply - demand is relatively healthy in the short term, and the processing fee is stable. It can consider long - short hedging operations [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The improvement of the processing fee stimulates the moderate increase of production. The absolute price follows the upstream cost, and the profit has support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Affected by weak oil prices and macro - factors, it is weak and volatile [31]. - **PP**: Affected by weak oil prices, it continues to decline. The high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [30]. - **Plastic**: There is slight support near the previous low, and it is weak and volatile. The fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by commodity sentiment and device news, it shows a "V" - shaped trend. The high inventory is the main pressure, and it is expected to try to widen the profit [19][20]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is volatile. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is moving down, and it is expected to be weak [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the upward driving force is insufficient [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., and their changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., and their changes are presented [37].

Group 1 - The price of CF oil was 545.50 yuan/ton on 2025/10/17, down 0.64 from the previous day [1] - The price index of ethylene fiber in Northeast Asia was 786.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/17, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The average ex - factory cost price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6150.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/17, with a 0.00% change from the previous day [1] - The spot price of methanol was 2317.50 yuan/ton on 2025/10/17, with a 0.00% change from the previous day [1] - The pit - mouth price of lignite (tax - included) in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) was 290.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/17, with a 0.00% change from the previous day [1] - The closing price of the main contract of GCED was 4089.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, up 0.79% from the previous day [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of GCED was 4056.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, up 0.20% from the previous day [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract of GCED was 4130.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, up 0.73% from the previous day [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract of GCED was 4092.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, up 0.07% from the previous day [1] - The mid - price index of diethylene glycol in the East China market (CFEI) was 4110.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, with a 0.00% change from the previous day, and the price was 4155.00 yuan/ton on the same day, up 0.85% from the previous day [1] - The near - far price difference was 36.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, down from 41.00 yuan/ton the previous day [1] - The basis was 66.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, up 3.00 from the previous day [1] - The comprehensive operating rate of diethylene glycol was 65.84% on 2025/10/16, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The operating rate of diethylene glycol from petroleum was 69.94% on 2025/10/16, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The operating rate of diethylene glycol from coal was 59.65% on 2025/10/16, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain was 89.38% on 2025/10/16, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain in Zhejiang textile was 69.13% on 2025/10/16, up 1.51% from the previous day [1] - The external market profit of diethylene glycol from naphtha was - 108.69 yuan/ton on 2025/10/15, up 9.38 from the previous day [1] - The external market cash - flow situation of diethylene glycol from ethylene was - 125.90 yuan/ton on 2025/10/15, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The post - tax gross profit of GME from OMT was - 1717.08 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, down 17.46 from the previous day [1] - The post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthetic gas plant was 94.69 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, down 39.82 from the previous day [1] - The price index of polyester fiber (CFEI C YDT) was 8425.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, down 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber (CFEI C) was 6750.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, down 0.74% from the previous day, and the price index of polyester fiber (CFEI C) for polyester ester was 6300.00 yuan/ton on the same day, up 0.16% from the previous day [1] - The price index of bottle - grade PET chips (CFEI) was 5650.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/16, up 0.36% from the previous day [1]

化工日报 | 2025-10-16 库存回升，EG偏弱运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4057元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.10%），EG华东市场现货价4122 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-28元/吨，幅度-0.67%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）65元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。早 间受已有船舶加征港务费消息影响，乙二醇盘面小幅抬升，随后市场维持窄幅震荡。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-67美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-474元/吨（环比 -43元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.1万吨（环比+3.4万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为44.3万吨（环比+4.3万吨）。据CCF数据，10.9~10.12主港实际到货总数8.7万吨，港 口库存继续累库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.2万吨，中性，副港计划到港量2.5万吨，库存或延续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of EB2511 is expected to weaken, with the daily range estimated to be around 6480 - 6600 [3]. - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The inventory pressure is relatively high and may maintain a slow destocking trend. The cost support effect is gradually strengthening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures active contracts is 433,433 lots, with a decrease of 7,309 lots; the closing price of the active contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the long position of the top 20 holders is 299,752 lots, with a decrease of 4,064 lots; the net long position is - 20,008 lots, with a decrease of 7,092 lots; the short position is 440,525 lots, with an increase of 1,325 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,341 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots [2]. - The closing price of the November contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 6600 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,020 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,675 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), 6,615 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and 6,585 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 716 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene is 695.86 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price is 250 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 655 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,630 yuan/ton, and 5,510 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.61%, with an increase of 2.37%. The national styrene inventory is 193,863 tons, with a decrease of 9,411 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports is 19.65 million tons, with a decrease of 0.54 million tons; the trade inventory in East China's main ports is 12.15 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th , China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37% [2]. - From October 3rd to 9th , the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 239,800 tons [2]. - As of October 9th , the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th , the styrene inventory in East China's ports was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in South China's ports was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59% [2]. - As of October 13th , the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon supply increased in October, putting pressure on prices, but there is cost support below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long on a trial basis [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with high - level fluctuations. The increasing supply pressure may cause prices to decline, but if the spot is strong, there is still strong support below. The quality of futures delivery products is good, which may bring trading opportunities on the futures market. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders [2]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the driving force for rubber prices is limited. It is expected that rubber prices will run around 15,500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space [3]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and there is certain support below the price during the seasonal peak season [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to continue the short - selling strategy on rebounds. Glass sales are sluggish, the market price is weak, and the trading is bearish during the peak season. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average market price of oxygen - passing Si5530 industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a decrease of 220% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 42.08 million tons, an increase of 3.51 million tons compared to the previous year, a growth of 9.1% [1]. Inventory Changes - The weekly inventory of factories in Xinjiang was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons compared to the previous week, a growth of 2.07% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 was stable at 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The price of the main contract was 49,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a growth of 2.56% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly polysilicon output was 3.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous week, a decline of 0.32% [2]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 million tons, an increase of 1.40 million tons compared to the previous period, a growth of 6.19% [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of 2CRML rubber from South China was 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production was 458.80 million tons, a decrease of 2.00 million tons compared to the previous year, a decline of 0.43% [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory was 456,525 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.01% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the 2511 log contract was 787.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 15.5 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.93% [4]. Supply - In September, the port shipping volume was 1.766 million cubic meters, an increase of 100,000 cubic meters compared to August, a growth of 6% [4]. Inventory - As of October 10, the national log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a growth of 4.55% [4]. Demand - As of October 10, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a decline of 13% [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation was 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.81% [5]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Supply - The soda ash weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons compared to the previous week, a growth of 3.37% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory warehouse inventory was 62.824 million heavy boxes, an increase of 3.469 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a growth of 5.84% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09% compared to the previous period [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillating Weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC. Some are rated as "Oscillating", such as PVC and caustic soda [3][7][8] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure. Crude oil's fundamentals are continuously pressured due to the increase in supply and the weakening of geopolitical support. Most energy and chemical products' prices are affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of the macro - environment. New device investment news in the chemical industry also impacts market expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Crude oil futures have broken below the lower edge of the shock platform, and the global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026, creating a record high annual surplus. The price structure of Brent and China's SC has changed to Contango. Chemical industry has new device investment news, such as 3 million tons of new PTA devices and 600,000 tons of new styrene devices, which may be put into production before the end of October [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - The IEA月报 slightly lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing concerns about surplus. The global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production, and there is pressure on crude oil inventory accumulation. Geopolitical support is weakening, and macro - risks are fluctuating [7] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price follows the decline of crude oil. The OPEC + group's production increase, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export discount to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in geopolitical premiums. The supply of asphalt is increasing, and the pressure on inventory accumulation is still large [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both follow the decline of crude oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is a negative factor, and the demand is still weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the increase in supply [8][10] Methanol - Affected by the drag of olefins and high inventory, the price is in a shock - finishing state. The high inventory and the expectation of winter reduction still affect the price. The parking time of Iranian methanol enterprises in winter has been gradually extended in the past three years [2] Urea - The market sentiment has declined, and the price is under pressure. The spot price has increased, but the futures price has decreased due to the weakening of market sentiment [19][20] Ethylene Glycol - The inflection point of port inventory has appeared, and there is pressure on supply - demand expectations. The market is in a state of small inventory accumulation in the short term [13] PX - The decline in oil prices has led to the collapse of costs, and there is no new positive news in supply and demand. The supply side still maintains a high load, and the price is affected by cost disturbances [11] PTA - The news of new device investment has depressed market expectations. Under the resonance of cost and supply - demand, the price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the basis remains weak [11] Short - Fiber - Affected by cost, the price has decreased, but the supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the processing fee has increased slightly [15] Bottle - Chip - The collapse of cost has led to the decline of price. The processing fee is relatively stable, and the export price has been lowered [16] Propylene - The cost has decreased, and the tariff game has restarted, resulting in a weak shock [25] PP - The support from the raw material side is limited, and the price has decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [24] Plastic - Affected by the decline in oil prices and macro - disturbances, the price is in a weak shock. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, which suppresses the price [23] Styrene - There are still concerns about inventory over - filling. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, the high port inventory is still a major pressure [13] PVC - The fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is in a shock state. The cost has decreased, the production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is weak [26] Caustic Soda - The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price can stop profit when it is low. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but attention should be paid to future inventory replenishment and profit changes [27] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - It includes cross - period spreads, basis and warehouse receipts, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, reflecting the price differences and changes between different varieties and different periods [29][30][32] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data are not detailed in the text, it is expected to monitor the basis and spread changes of chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [33][45][57] 4. Commodity Index - On October 14, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all showed a decline. The energy index also declined, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a 5 - day decline of 5.67%, a 1 - month decline of 6.59%, and a decline of 7.87% since the beginning of the year [274][276]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority decline in the night session on October 14, with energy products leading the drop, particularly low-sulfur fuel oil which fell by 1.90% [1] Group 1: Energy Products - Low-sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.90% [1] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - All non-metallic building materials saw a decline, with glass dropping by 1.48% [1] Group 3: Chemical Products - Most chemical products declined, with PTA falling by 1.30% [1] Group 4: Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils also experienced a decline, with soybean oil decreasing by 0.65% [1] Group 5: Black Metals - The black metal sector mostly declined, with iron ore dropping by 0.51% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed gains, with corn increasing by 0.43% [1]

光大期货指出，美国最新制裁名单生效，虽然伊朗装运仍然偏高，但已有国内企业暂停接受制裁船舶停 靠，因此后续到港量受此影响将有所回落，并且中美贸易摩擦重新升级导致原油价格下探，短期对化工 品估值影响偏空，但甲醇更多是受进口制裁影响，因此表现或强于下游烯烃产品，建议关注多甲醇空聚 烯烃的策略，以及月间正套策略。 东海期货表示，当前甲醇市场面临的核心矛盾在于供应增速远超需求复苏。内地与国际供应同步增加， 进口到港量显著提升，而下游需求的恢复力度相对有限，导致内地与港口库存不降反升，加剧供应过剩 格局。疲软的外需与有限的内需，使得去库进程艰难。特别是正处历史高位的库存，对价格形成绝对压 制。综合来看，供应过剩与高库存是当前市场的核心利空，预计甲醇价格将维持震荡偏弱运行。 目前来看，甲醇行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于甲醇后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 华联期货分析称，伊朗的船只制裁，伊朗的航线运力受损，进口受阻，企业库存低位持稳，MTO开工 率升至高位，短期需求有支撑，但是，电煤需求一般，煤价或承压运行，甲醇成本端驱动偏弱，国内企 业生产积极，开工率偏高，进口量同比大幅增加，供应压力较大，传统需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The main port of ethylene glycol (EG) continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is operating weakly. The spot price of EG in the East China market increased by 2.65% compared to the previous trading day, and the futures price also slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas EG supply. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has rebounded after hitting the bottom [2]. - The strategy includes: cautiously short - selling on rallies for single - side trading; conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 for inter - period trading; and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,111 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton, +0.27% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,178 yuan/ton (up 108 yuan/ton, +2.65% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - based EG was - 527 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, the demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.1 tons (up 3.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (up 4.3 tons month - on - month). From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main port was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.5 tons, with the inventory likely to continue to accumulate [1].