2025 年 5 月 16 日 银河能化-20250516 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-16） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 61.62 跌 1.53 美元/桶，环比-2.42%；Brent2507 合约 64.53 跌 1.56 美元/桶，环比-2.36%。SC 主力合约 2507 跌 6.6 至 471.7 元/桶，夜盘跌 10.1 至 461.6 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.50 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周四表示，美国非常接近与伊朗达成核协议；德黑兰也"在某种程度上"同 意了协议条款。然而，一位伊朗消息人士称，与美国的谈判仍然存在需要弥合的差距。伊 朗和美国谈判代表为解决德黑兰核计划争端而举行的会谈周日在阿曼结束，官员表示，由 于德黑兰公然坚持继续进行铀浓缩活动，预计还将进一步谈判。 俄罗斯总统普京拒绝周四在土耳其与泽连斯基面对面会谈，而是派出一个二级官员组成的 代表团参加计划中的和平谈判，而泽连斯基表示，基辅将派出由国防部长率领的代表团。 这将是自 2022 年 3 月以来双方首次直接会谈，但美国总统特朗普表示，如果他与普京不 举行会谈，就 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/14 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/13 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the single - side strategy, positive spread for the inter - period strategy, and no suggestion for the inter - variety strategy [3] Core View - The market's intention to ship has increased, and the spot basis has declined. The price of ethylene glycol has adjusted and the basis has weakened. The production profit has changed, and the inventory may continue to decline. The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that the Sino - US negotiation has made positive progress, the supply - side has tightened liquidity, and the demand - side has strong support [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4461 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton or - 1.00% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4571 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton or - 1.59% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 108 yuan/ton (down 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 12 US dollars/ton (up 20 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 301 yuan/ton (up 194 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific content provided in the given text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load remains stable at a high level, and the average polyester load in May may increase instead of decreasing, exceeding market expectations. The US textile and clothing orders from China have decreased significantly, and US orders are expected to partially recover [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 75.1 tons (down 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 66.4 tons (down 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.9 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. Core Viewpoints - EG's main contract closed at 4506 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton (+3.61%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4645 yuan/ton, up 179 yuan/ton (+4.01%); the spot basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -32 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 108 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF, MEG inventory in East China's main ports was 75.1 tons, down 3.9 tons; according to Longzhong, it was 69.2 tons, up 0.4 tons. Last week, the actual arrival at the port was 5.9 tons, and this week's planned arrival is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic is that the Sino - US negotiation has made positive progress, improving the macro sentiment. On the supply side, the recent sharp increase in warehouse receipts has tightened the spot liquidity of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the near - end polyester load has remained high, and the average monthly load in May may rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. - For the strategy, it is short - term cautiously bullish on the single - side, suggesting a long - spread for the inter - period, and no strategy for the inter - variety [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of EG's main contract and the spot price in the East China market both increased, and the spot basis in East China also strengthened [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG both improved [1]. International Spread - No detailed information about international spread is provided other than the mention of the graph "Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [5][19]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load has remained high, and the average monthly load in May may rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory in East China's main ports decreased last week due to low arrival volume, and this week's planned arrival is also low, so the inventory may continue to decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Report's Core Views - The macro factors dominate the continuous rebound of the methanol market. With the recovery of domestic production and imports, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply increases while the demand decreases. Both the inland and ports may enter the inventory accumulation cycle [2]. - Urea prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. The relevant associations plan to organize self - disciplined urea exports in 2026, with a self - disciplined quantity of about 2 million tons before April. The supply is sufficient, and appropriate exports can relieve the domestic supply pressure, and the short - term market may be strong [3]. - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to rise. The macro - positive factors are released, and the market sentiment improves. Although the polyethylene terminal industry is in the off - season, the orders of export - oriented enterprises may improve. The supply - side maintenance provides support, but the weak demand restricts the increase [4]. - The main contract of styrene futures closes at the daily limit. Driven by the rebound of pure benzene prices and the positive macro news, the styrene market trading sentiment improves, and there is a demand to fill the gap on the disk [6]. - Affected by the rebound of oil prices and the expectation of good demand, the prices of PX and PTA continue to rise, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of ethylene glycol is strong, and the short - fiber price rebounds. The bottle chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin is squeezed [7]. - The supply of PVC remains high, and the domestic demand is weak. The tariff policy eases to some extent the export of PVC products. The caustic soda market may fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [8]. - The glass futures price drops again due to high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash futures price also declines under the pattern of high inventory and falling costs [9]. Summary by Product Methanol - Macro factors lead to the continuous rebound of the methanol market. The capacity utilization rate of inland plants rises, and most olefin plants are under maintenance. The traditional downstream starts to decline, and the inventory of methanol producers increases. The import volume rebounds, and the MTO plant operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang slightly increases. With the recovery of domestic production and imports, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply increases while the demand decreases. Both the inland and ports may enter the inventory accumulation cycle [2]. Urea - Urea prices remain high and fluctuate. The relevant associations plan to organize self - disciplined urea exports in 2026, with a self - disciplined quantity of about 2 million tons before April. The demand has limited impact on the market. The compound fertilizer industry's operation rate declines, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has a gap but is scattered. There is new production capacity to be put into operation, and appropriate exports can relieve the domestic supply pressure. The short - term market may be strong [3]. Polyolefin - The main contracts of polyolefin futures rise. The macro - positive factors are released, and the market sentiment improves. The polyethylene terminal industry is in the off - season, but the orders of export - oriented enterprises may improve. The supply - side maintenance provides support, but the weak demand restricts the increase [4]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closes at the daily limit. Driven by the rebound of pure benzene prices and the positive macro news, the styrene market trading sentiment improves, and there is a demand to fill the gap on the disk [6]. Polyester - Affected by the rebound of oil prices and the expectation of good demand, the prices of PX and PTA continue to rise, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of ethylene glycol is strong, and the short - fiber price rebounds. The bottle chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin is squeezed [7]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC remains high, and the domestic demand is weak. The tariff policy eases to some extent the export of PVC products. The caustic soda market may fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass futures price drops again due to high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash futures price also declines under the pattern of high inventory and falling costs [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the documents. 2) Core Viewpoints - The Sino - US talks had better - than - expected positive effects, leading to an increase in EG prices. The commodity market was strong, the ethylene glycol market was firm, and the basis strengthened due to tightened spot liquidity [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic is that the Sino - US negotiation had positive progress, improving the macro sentiment. On the supply side, the warehouse receipt volume increased significantly, tightening the spot liquidity of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the near - end polyester load remained high and stable, and the average polyester load in May might rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. - The strategy suggests a short - term cautious bullish view on the single - side trade. It also recommends a positive spread for the inter - period trade and no operation for the inter - variety trade [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4302 yuan/ton (up 84 yuan/ton, +1.99% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4406 yuan/ton (up 106 yuan/ton, +2.47% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 127 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 88 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference There is no specific data or analysis about international price difference provided other than the mention of the figure "EG international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load remained high and stable, and the average polyester load in May might rise instead of falling, exceeding market expectations. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 75.1 tons (down 3.9 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 69.2 tons (up 0.4 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.9 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3][4] Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices continue to decline, but futures have stabilized and rebounded due to large spot premiums. The fundamentals face high supply and high warehouse receipts pressure, with major demand weakening, yet there are signs of improvement. The price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has a further production cut expectation, and futures prices are oscillating upwards. In May, demand decline is highly certain, and enterprises will adjust production plans. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. There are different views from bears and bulls, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 36000 - 42000 yuan/ton [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June. If maintenance is concentrated, it will relieve the supply pressure. The glass market has a poor market expectation from April to May and a summer rainy - season expectation after June. The glass price is expected to continue to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts improves the macro - sentiment and boosts rubber prices. However, the weak demand expectation still exists, and the expectation of raw material increase during the peak season suppresses the upside of rubber prices. The rubber price is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, with the operating range referring to 14500 - 15500 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - On May 12, the price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon was 9100 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from May 9. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 882 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a change of 7.19% - 0.50%. The basis of SI4210 (benchmark) increased by 6.42% [1] Monthly Spread - The spread of 2505 - 2506 was - 100 yuan/ton on May 12, down 400.00% from May 9. The spreads of 2506 - 2507 and 2507 - 2508 remained unchanged, while the spreads of 2508 - 2509 and 2509 - 2510 increased by 14.29% and 60.00% respectively [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 30.08 million tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. Xinjiang's output decreased by 20.55%, while Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and Xinjiang's开工 rates decreased, while Yunnan and Sichuan increased [1] Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.87% on a weekly basis, Yunnan's decreased by 1.23%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.16%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.36%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2.18% [1] Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - On May 12, the average prices of N - type re - fed material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 23.22%, and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 10.93% [2] Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract price was 38450 yuan/ton on May 12, up 1.64% from May 9. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 24.95%, while the spreads of PS2507 - PS2508, PS2508 - PS2509, PS2509 - PS2510, PS2510 - PS2511, and PS2511 - PS2512 increased [2] Fundamental Data - On a weekly basis, the silicon wafer output decreased by 7.07%, and the polysilicon output decreased by 4.46%. On a monthly basis, the April polysilicon output decreased by 0.73%, the March import volume increased by 35.09%, and the export volume increased by 43.18% [2] Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 1.53%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.08% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 12, the East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 0.77% and 1.06% respectively, and the 05 basis decreased by 4.42% [3] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 0.84%, the 2509 contract increased by 1.00%, and the 05 basis increased by 5.56% [3] Supply - The soda ash开工 rate decreased by 1.97%, the weekly output decreased by 1.89%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.71%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased by 1.32% [3] Inventory - The glass inventory increased by 3.96%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.74%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 5.89% [3] Real Estate Data - The year - on - year changes in real estate completion area, sales area, new construction area, and construction area showed different trends [3] Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - On May 12, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 0.34%, the full - latex basis decreased by 1775.00%, the Thai standard mixed rubber quote decreased by 0.35%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 206.82% [4] Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 9.31%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 91.18% [4] Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's rubber output decreased by 56.93%, Indonesia's increased by 5.92%, and India's decreased by 28.38%. The domestic tire output increased by 1.79%, and the export volume increased by 42.34% [4] Inventory Change - The bonded - area inventory increased by 0.90%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE increased by 4.96% [4]

日报 | 2025-05-13 中美关税会谈取得进展，甲醇价格回升 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤420元/吨（-10），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润790元/吨（+30）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2105元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差435元/吨（-33），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2348元/吨（-3）， 鲁南基差278元/吨（-46）；河南2300元/吨（+0），河南基差230元/吨（-43）；河北2250元/吨（-75），河北基差240 元/吨（-118）。隆众内地工厂库存303910吨（+20560），西北工厂库存192000吨（+21000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 237780吨（-11850），西北工厂待发订单120000吨（+7200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2422元/吨（+22），太仓基差152元/吨（-21），CFR中国264美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差61元/ 吨（+11），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2382元/吨（+17），广东基差112元/吨（-26）。隆众港口总库存561870吨 （+24470），江苏港口库存230000吨（-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpected consensus on tariff reduction between China and the US in the Geneva economic and trade talks is expected to boost the short - term sentiment of the domestic A - share market and industrial products in commodities, especially those close to the export end. However, there is a possibility that the US may take further actions after a 90 - day period [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Reaction - After the A - share market closed yesterday, the three major US stock indexes recorded their largest daily gains in a month, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 5.40%. The US dollar index and the offshore RMB increased, while US Treasury bonds and gold declined [7]. 2. Sector - Specific Analysis PTA - The unilateral trend is oscillating strongly. With the unexpected tariff reduction, the view on the monthly spread is revised, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited. PTA is in a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee at high prices, and the unilateral price is strongly affected by oil prices and is generally oscillating strongly [9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The unexpected good news of China - US tariffs drives the sentiment - based repair of the market. It is advisable to enter the 6 - 8 reverse spread and hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread lightly. The freight rate on the European line is not likely to increase significantly in late June, and there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August [10]. Styrene - Pure benzene is still in a weak trend, and in the short - term, it enters a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Styrene should be shorted at high prices, and the profit of styrene should be compressed. Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut and inventory accumulation in the second half of May and the process of the hidden inventory of styrene factories becoming explicit [13]. Cotton - Despite the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures due to the better - than - expected result of the China - US economic and trade talks, due to sufficient supply of old - crop cotton and expected increase in new - crop production, as well as the lack of short - term and long - term growth expectations for cotton demand, cotton futures lack a continuous upward driving force and are expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. 3. Individual Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - Gold: Affected by the progress in China - US trade, the trend intensity is - 1. - Silver: It is oscillating downwards, and the trend intensity is - 1 [20][24]. Base Metals - Copper: The strong spot price of LME copper supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating weakly, and the trend intensity is 0. Alumina is consolidating at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. - Zinc: There is inventory accumulation in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is - 1 [32]. - Lead: It has weak supply and demand and is adjusting within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a narrow range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [38]. - Nickel: The news affects the sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel has a marginal increase in social inventory, and the disk is supported by cost expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [42]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Although the tariff impact is mitigated, the export profit is still in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [47]. - Industrial Silicon: The disk is expected to open high and go low. The trend intensity is - 1. - Polysilicon: The news of production cuts is fermenting, and the disk is running strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [50]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - Rebar: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1 [58]. - Ferrosilicon: The main production areas have announced maintenance plans, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1. - Silicomanganese: The port quotation has a strong willingness to increase, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [61]. - Coke: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0. - Coking Coal: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [66]. - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [71]. Others - Logs: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [74].

Group 1: Report Core Views - In April 2025, international crude oil prices fell sharply after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and recovered with little success, with WTI falling below $60/barrel. PX, PTA, and MEG were all affected by tariffs and costs, running at low levels [3]. - For PX, it is expected to be driven by the resonance of cost and fundamentals, with a price range of 6400 - 6800 yuan/ton. In April - July 2025, due to the concentrated maintenance of Asian PX devices, supply decreased, but PTA device maintenance led to a smooth destocking in April. PXN's low - level operation provides support, but it's hard to form long - term support [3]. - For PTA, support comes from supply - demand destocking, with a price range of 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton. The crude oil price is expected to be volatile and weak. In May, PTA will continue to destock, and the processing fee has improved [3]. - For MEG, without clear news guidance, the price range is expected to be 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton. Domestic supply will be affected by device maintenance, and demand from polyester has shown signs of improvement, with inventory being destocked [3]. Group 2: Summary by Sector PX - **Market Review**: In April 2025, PX prices were in a slump after the collapse of cost support. Even the entry into the maintenance season couldn't reverse the panic. After Trump's tariff adjustment, PX prices rebounded with destocking. The monthly average price of PX in China's main port in April was $756.08/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $82.27/ton (- 9.81%) [14][16][21]. - **Maintenance Benefits**: In April, PX operating loads continued to decline. Many devices were under maintenance, and some had planned maintenance in the future. The domestic average operating rate in April was 68.74%, and the total domestic supply was 351.19 tons, a decrease of 38.82 tons from the previous month [26]. - **PXN and PX - MX Spreads**: In April, naphtha prices fluctuated, and PXN narrowed and then rebounded slightly. The average value of PXN was $184.73/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82%. The PX - MX spread was slightly compressed, with an average of $67.75/ton [37][41]. - **Destocking**: In March 2025, PX imports increased, and the main import sources were South Korea, Japan, and China Taiwan. In April, due to device maintenance and uncertain demand from PTA, PX was expected to have a narrow - range destocking pattern [45][48]. PTA - **Market Review**: Affected by US equal - tariff policies, PTA prices fell continuously to around 4000 yuan. After the tariff reduction, prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The average price in April was 4442.64 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 402.46 yuan/ton (- 8.31%) [49][50]. - **Processing Fees and Device Maintenance**: The average PTA processing fee in April was 345.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 43.84 yuan/ton (13.02%). The average operating rate was 77.60%, a slight decrease from the previous month. Many devices were under maintenance [51][62]. - **Inventory Reduction**: In April, PTA continued to destock. The estimated total production was 586 tons, consumption was 584.3 tons, and exports were 34 tons. The destocking volume was about 32.30 tons [67]. - **Export Decline**: In March 2025, PTA exports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 24.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62%. The main reason was the new PTA device in Turkey [72]. MEG - **Market Review**: In April 2025, MEG prices first fell and then rebounded. Affected by US tariffs and crude oil price drops, the price bottomed below 4000 yuan. Later, with the easing of trade frictions, prices rebounded. The monthly average price was 4270.80 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 248.44 yuan/ton [77]. - **Device Maintenance**: In April, MEG device maintenance increased. The average operating rate of oil - based MEG was 64.26%, an increase of 2.45% from the previous month; the coal - based MEG was 53.61%, a decrease of 9.30% from the previous month [80]. - **Port Shipping and Inventory**: In April, Zhangjiagang's main port's average daily shipping volume was around 6805 tons. The port inventory was high, and the destocking of social inventory was mainly in the implicit part. As of April 30, the social inventory was 182.56 tons, a decrease of 4.51 tons from the previous month [95]. - **Import Impact**: In March 2025, MEG imports increased. Affected by Sino - US high - tariff policies, it was difficult for US goods to enter the Chinese market, and the possibility of trans - importing from South Korea was small [103]. Polyester - **Market Review**: In April 2025, polyester prices first fell and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, affected by tariffs and raw material price drops, prices fell. At the end of the month, with the easing of trade frictions and the rebound of raw material prices, prices rebounded [116]. - **Production and Sales**: In April, the production and sales of polyester were significantly differentiated. In the first three weeks, it was light, and in the last week, it was booming. The average monthly production and sales of polyester filament were 51.86%, a month - on - month increase of 5.62% [130]. - **Inventory Changes**: In April, polyester inventory first increased and then decreased. At the end of the month, due to downstream speculative demand, inventory was destocked. As of April 30, the mainstream inventory of polyester filament POY was 8 - 18 days [137]. - **Export Growth**: In March 2025, the exports of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips all increased. From January to March, the cumulative exports also showed an increasing trend [149]. Textile and Apparel Consumption - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Weaving**: As of April 30, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving was 61.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96%. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the fabric market improved locally, but after the festival, it was affected by tariffs, and the market was sluggish. At the end of the month, the market improved slightly [168]. - **First - Quarter Exports**: In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative exports of textile and apparel increased by 1% year - on - year, turning positive from negative. In March, exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. However, the US tariff policy will seriously impact China's textile and apparel export market [172].