Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market currently faces oversupply, weak demand, high inventory levels, and the silicon price continues to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Last week, the prices of some grades of industrial silicon in the market were weak, downstream purchasing was relatively active, and the situation of point - price transactions improved. The ex - factory price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8500 - 8800 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9300 - 9700 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main 2507 contract of industrial silicon last Friday was 7915 yuan, an increase of 0.25% or 20 yuan, with a single - day reduction of 5306 lots [1] Supply Side - Northern large factories will continue to resume production in the near future. It is expected that the eastern production area will gradually resume production to 40 submerged arc furnaces. Some factories in the south have prepared for furnace opening, and the start - up in the southwest is gradually increasing. The market is digesting the expected increase in supply during the wet season in advance, and the supply side is abundant [1] Demand Side - The three major downstream industries have increased the intensity of production reduction and shutdown, and the marginal demand continues to weaken, making it difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The price of polysilicon is weakly stable, crystal - pulling factories purchase on demand with low enthusiasm and keep pressing prices. Leading silicon material enterprises strengthen price - stabilizing strategies, but the transaction prices are mostly close to the cost line and the trading scale is limited. The price of organic silicon is stable with limited market fluctuations, relying mainly on early - month orders, and the purchasing willingness is weak. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable, the general start - up rate of die - casting enterprises is low, the overall demand enters the off - season, and the purchasing willingness is insufficient [1] Inventory - On May 23, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 65,568 lots, an increase of 270 lots, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The tin market maintains a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations, with tin prices showing a narrow - range oscillation. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices based on the logic of weakening macro - demand and releasing fundamental supply as the year - end approaches [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - The weekly tin price remained oscillating with a slightly higher peak. The LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $1135 per ton, and the domestic spot premium dropped to 700 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared to last week, with the Baltimore premium slightly narrowing [5][9][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - The tin monthly structure changed from contango to back this week [17]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The global tin inventory increased by 304 tons this week, the domestic social inventory increased by 374 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 43 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 70 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 14.26% [22][26]. 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 1390.82 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [32]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - The trading volume and position of Shanghai tin slightly declined this week, while the position volume slightly increased. The trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [34][40]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly declined this week [46]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In March 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%. In April 2025, the import was 9861 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.22%, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 47.98%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan dropped to 12000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8800 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore slightly declined [50][51]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In April 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.13%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly declined to 56.44% [53][55]. 3.2.3 Import - In April 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1128 tons, exports were 1637 tons, with a net export of 509 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1028 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 9130 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, Terminal) 3.3.1 Consumption - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14691 tons, and the actual consumption was 16340 tons [66]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - The downstream processing fee slightly declined this week. The operating rate of solder enterprises in April slightly decreased. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly increased in March [68]. 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In April 2025, the terminal production generally declined both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the production of integrated circuits, air conditioners, and washing machines was still at the highest level over the years. Traditional 3C consumption such as smartphones and electronic computers performed averagely. The consumption of home appliances and new energy also declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as the tin price [76][79][85].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline this week, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.61%, the S&P 500 down by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1% [1] - The dollar index dropped by 0.82%, while copper and aluminum prices rose on the London Metal Exchange [1] Economic Events - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which negatively impacted European stock markets [1] - Recent bond auctions in Japan and the US were poorly received, raising concerns about global market liquidity [4][5] Investment Insights - Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as technology, high-dividend assets, and non-ferrous metals [8][11] - The potential for a decline in the dollar index is seen as beneficial for international non-ferrous metal prices [11] Upcoming Events - Japan will conduct several important bond auctions on May 28, June 3, and June 5, with the June 3 auction of 10-year bonds being particularly significant [4] - The 61st simulated stock trading competition is set to begin, with participants focusing on opportunities in controllable nuclear fusion and the pet economy [2][3]

Group 1 - The company participated in the 2025 Investor Online Collective Reception Day on May 22, 2025, to enhance communication with investors regarding its operational status and strategic development plans [1][5] - The company reported that its top five customers contributed sales of 1,628.30 million yuan, accounting for 41.39% of the total sales in 2024 [2] - The company aims to strengthen its upstream resource investment as part of its long-term strategy, focusing on optimizing management and enhancing competitiveness [2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company produced 162,700 tons of lead, 43,500 tons of cathode copper, 33.4 tons of gold, and 394.7 tons of silver, with sales figures of 146,600 tons of lead, 41,500 tons of cathode copper, 34 tons of gold, and 335.5 tons of silver [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.395 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.29%, and a net profit of 229 million yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year [3] - The company plans to invest 650 million yuan in a new site for its advanced semiconductor precious metal materials project, which is currently in the preparatory stage [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The central bank conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan, which will increase banks' credit - lending ability [8]. - The US soybean market is in a range - bound state, with factors on both the supply and demand sides that could break the current range [9]. - Manganese silicon showed a short - term upward trend driven by sentiment but is under long - term pressure from fundamentals [11]. - Asphalt is at a high cracking level, and it is advisable to wait and see for the moment [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Monetary Policy - On May 23, the central bank carried out a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term. After this operation, the MLF achieved a net injection of 375 billion yuan, as the maturity volume this month was 125 billion yuan. This is the third consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs, with net injections of 63 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in March and April respectively [8]. 3.2 Commodity Markets 3.2.1 US Soybeans - The US soybean market is in a range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel. On the supply side, factors such as a reduction in planting area or a decline in yield could push prices above 1200 cents per bushel. On the demand side, a clear Sino - US trade outlook and a large - scale return of Chinese purchases could also lead to a significant price increase. If Chinese demand does not return and shifts entirely to South America, US soybean prices may fall to around 950 cents per bushel [9][10]. 3.2.2 Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon rose by 3.84% to close at 5998 yuan per ton, driven by information from the South African ore end. However, the fundamentals are relatively weak. The manganese ore port inventory is gradually accumulating, and Australian ore is expected to resume shipments in June, which may squeeze the current manganese ore market. On the supply - demand side, the main production areas have no production - cut plans, and inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory are at relatively high levels. In the long - term, it may continue a weak trend [11]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The release of asphalt demand is not ideal. Refineries' production control has kept northern inventories at a low level, while southern inventories are gradually increasing, with the greatest pressure in South China. In the short - term, low production may support northern inventories, but the rainy season may increase southern inventory pressure. It is advisable to pay attention to trade logistics changes in South China and regional price - difference rebalancing [12][13]. 3.2.4 Other Commodities - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver will follow gold's upward movement [16][19]. - Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction [25]. - Aluminum is in a range - bound state, and alumina is expected to decline slightly [28]. - Zinc is under pressure, and lead is in a supply - demand double - weak state with range adjustment [31][34]. - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation [37]. - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward - driving force [42]. - Lithium carbonate is affected by non - ore policy risks, and its fundamentals restrict upward movement [48]. - Industrial silicon shows a weak overall trend, while polysilicon's market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to its upward space [51][52]. - Iron ore's short - term upward drivers have slowed down [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [57][58]. - Coke and coking coal are in bottom - range oscillations [66]. - Steam coal is in a weak - oscillation state due to increased coal - mine inventory [69]. - Logs are in a weak - oscillation state [72].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices hit a three-week low due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economic landscape and demand growth [1] Group 1: Copper Market - On May 22, LME three-month copper closed at $9,500.50 per ton, down $33.00 or 0.35%, with an intraday low of $9,223.20 per ton, the lowest since May 1 [1][2] - Increased copper inventories in China ended a three-week decline, putting additional pressure on copper prices, which are affected by weak demand and stable output from the smelting industry [3] - The Freeport Indonesia smelter is expected to resume operations ahead of schedule after a fire in 2024, which will likely increase supply [3] - Investor confidence remains low due to deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook, with Moody's downgrading the U.S. rating, leading to a "sell America" sentiment [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month lead prices fell by $4.00 or 0.20%, closing at $1,970.00 per ton, previously touching a low of $1,947.50 per ton since May 9 [4] - LME registered lead inventories surged by 91% over two days to 234,000 tons, the highest level since December 2024 [5] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a shift to a lead supply deficit of 6,700 tons by March 2025, compared to a surplus of 17,700 tons in February [5] - In the first three months of 2025, the global lead market is expected to have a surplus of 16,000 tons, down from a surplus of 65,000 tons in the same period last year [6] Group 3: Industry Insights - Alejandro Tapi, head of the Escondida copper mine, emphasized the need for regulatory and legal changes in Chile to promote investment, as Chile is the largest copper producer globally, accounting for nearly one-quarter of global copper supply in 2024 [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/21 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/20 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/19 | -189.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/16 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 ...

Group 1: Implementation of Energy Consumption Standards - The mandatory national standards for energy consumption limits, including "Energy Consumption Limits for Refining and Chemical Industry Products" (GB 30251—2024), officially took effect on May 1, 2024, covering key industries such as chemicals, coal, mining, and paper [1][2] - The effective implementation of these standards is expected to yield an annual energy-saving benefit of 24.52 million tons of standard coal [2][12] - The standards aim to eliminate outdated production capacity and guide enterprises to enhance energy efficiency through energy-saving renovations and process optimization [2][6] Group 2: Impact on Steel Industry - The implementation of energy consumption limits is seen as beneficial for the steel industry, which is currently facing oversupply and weak demand [2][3] - The standards will force the elimination of inefficient production capacities, such as blast furnaces with a capacity of 400 cubic meters or less, and steelmaking converters of 30 tons or less [2][3] - New and expanded steel projects must meet energy efficiency standards, raising industry entry barriers and promoting a shift towards high-end and green development [2][3] Group 3: Effects on Construction Materials - Recent government policies for the flat glass industry focus on capacity regulation, green transformation, and technological upgrades [4] - The implementation of energy consumption limits is expected to positively impact the glass and cement industries, leading to high-quality supply that drives demand [4][5] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Industry Integration - The energy consumption limits are a necessary response to past capacity expansions and the "dual carbon" goals, addressing structural contradictions in the refining industry [6][8] - The new standards will compel companies to accelerate technological upgrades and increase investments in energy-saving technologies, with expected investments exceeding 100 billion yuan [8] - The standards will also lead to the elimination of outdated capacities, significantly increasing industry concentration [8][9] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals Industry Transformation - The implementation of energy consumption limits is a significant change for the nonferrous metals industry, promoting green transformation and energy efficiency improvements [10] - The standards will accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities, particularly in high-energy-consuming small smelting plants [10][11] - The copper market is expected to face downward pressure due to tightening supply and increased environmental regulations [10][11] Group 6: Coal Industry Energy Efficiency - The energy consumption limits are projected to save 24.52 million tons of standard coal annually, enhancing energy efficiency across various industries [12] - The implementation of these standards will not immediately reduce coal demand but will impose constraints on energy usage, promoting better energy management [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The short - term direction of zinc price fluctuations is difficult to judge. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have changed, causing the zinc futures price to rise. The consumption side may face challenges in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening in consumption after May. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3]. Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot market: In the Guangdong region, inventory has been continuously declining, and due to shortages of individual brands, the spot premium has slightly increased. In the East China region, the procurement enthusiasm has declined due to the replenishment of imported zinc ingots in the early stage. In the North China region, procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot market premium and discount remain stable. In the overseas mining end, the output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. Although the upside space of TC is limited, smelting still has profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with supply pressure still existing. The inventory of imported mines in China is sufficient, and there are no conditions for a short - term TC reduction. The consumption side may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening in consumption after May [1][3]. - Futures: On May 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,415 yuan/ton and closed at 22,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 94,706 lots, a decrease of 31,390 lots from the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 76,630 lots, a decrease of 8,930 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 22,490 yuan/ton and a minimum of 22,360 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 20, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 156,725 tons, a decrease of 4,075 tons from the previous trading day [2].

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