Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market shows an upward trend despite fluctuations, with the market expected to continue to rise. The bond market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the commodity market has different trends in various sectors [20][21][24]. - Different sectors in the agricultural market, such as protein meal, sugar, and oils, have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, protein meal is under supply pressure, while sugar is affected by international and domestic supply and demand and cost factors [27][28][32]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating strongly, while double - coking coal prices are volatile, and iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels [56][60][62]. - The non - ferrous metal market has different trends for each metal. For instance, gold and silver are oscillating at high levels, and copper is recommended to be bought after a callback and stabilization [70][71][79]. - The shipping market shows signs of the spot price reaching the top, and the energy - chemical market has different trends for each product, such as the oil price oscillating weakly and the asphalt price being firm [118][120][124]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures market is volatile, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes performing strongly. The market is expected to continue to rise, and trading strategies include going long on dips, waiting for the spread of the IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][22]. Bond Futures - Bond futures closed down on Wednesday. The bond market is expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the low probability of central bank interest rate cuts and concerns about long - term bond supply and demand. The trading strategy is to sell short for hedging [24][25]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The international soybean market is under cost pressure, but the decline may be limited. The domestic soybean supply may decrease, and the spot price may be supported. The trading strategy is to oscillate mainly, reduce the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. Sugar - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is slightly strong. The trading strategy is to expect the international sugar price to oscillate at the bottom, and the Zhengzhou sugar price to be slightly strong in the short - term, and to sell put options [30][32][33]. Oils - The oils market has improved sentiment, but the fundamentals are still weak. The trading strategy is for palm oil to go short at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and for soybean oil to follow the overall trend [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on dips and expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch [37][40]. Live Pigs - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The trading strategy is to short sell [41][42]. Peanuts - Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to go long on the 05 contract on dips and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [43][44][45]. Eggs - Egg demand has improved, and prices are rising steadily. The trading strategy is to expect the near - term contract to oscillate weakly and consider going long on the far - term 5 - month contract on dips [46][48][49]. Apples - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level due to high costs and good demand during the Spring Festival. The trading strategy is to hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract [50][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new - year cotton planting area is expected to decline, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to expect the US cotton to oscillate in the range and the Zhengzhou cotton to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals Steel - Steel market sentiment has improved, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and consider shorting the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread [56][57]. Double - Coking Coal - Double - coking coal prices are volatile, and long positions are recommended to be gradually closed. The trading strategy is to gradually close long positions and not to chase the market [60][61]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels due to repeated market expectations. The trading strategy is to short at high levels [62][64][66]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term due to supply - demand improvement and cost - push. The trading strategy is to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Gold and silver are oscillating at high levels due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg index. The trading strategy is to hold long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average [70][71][72]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum and palladium are oscillating. Platinum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, and palladium is recommended to wait and see. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum on dips and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [74][75][76]. Copper - Copper prices have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to buy after a callback and stabilization. The trading strategy is to control the position and buy after a callback [79][80]. Alumina - Alumina price fluctuations are enlarged due to policy expectations and fundamental contradictions. The trading strategy is to wait and see [81][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Electrolytic aluminum prices may have a short - term callback risk due to capital rotation. The trading strategy is to be bullish after a stabilization [85][87]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices oscillate with the sector. The trading strategy is to wait and see [88][90]. Zinc - Zinc prices are affected by the capital side. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector and gradually close long positions [93][94]. Lead - Lead prices are recommended to be bought on dips. The trading strategy is to go long on dips and buy out - of - the - money call options [96][97][98]. Nickel - Nickel prices have returned to the financial attribute due to resource speculation. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously after an over - rise and correction [100][101][102]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices follow the nickel price and are weak. The trading strategy is to follow the nickel price [104][105]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are strongly oscillating in the short - term and are recommended to be shorted at high levels in the medium - term. The trading strategy is to be strongly oscillating in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term [107][109][110]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices may weaken with the market sentiment. The trading strategy is to participate cautiously and sell put options [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are still at a high level after a correction. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously and control the position [112][114]. Tin - Tin prices have increased short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to oscillate widely at a high level in the short - term [115][116]. Shipping Container Shipping - Spot container shipping prices show signs of reaching the top, and the main contract is gradually shifting positions. The trading strategy is to close all long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see, and look for opportunities for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [117][118]. Energy - Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil supply has no risk for the time being, and prices are oscillating weakly. The trading strategy is to oscillate widely, with gasoline being strong and diesel being weak in China, and the crude oil monthly spread being strong [120][121][122]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are firm due to raw material concerns. The trading strategy is to oscillate at a high level [123][124][125]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices are volatile due to frequent geopolitical disturbances. The trading strategy is to oscillate strongly in the short - term, be vigilant about geopolitical risks, and look for opportunities for the FU59 positive spread arbitrage [127][129][130]. Natural Gas - TTF/JKM prices are oscillating at a low level, and HH is looking for support. The trading strategy is to hold short positions in the TTF third - quarter contract [131][132][133]. LPG - LPG prices are under pressure despite the geopolitical premium. The trading strategy is to be bearish on the far - term contracts in the long - term and pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event [134][135][137]. PX&PTA - The upward drive of PX&PTA prices is weakening. The trading strategy is to oscillate strongly and conduct the 3 - 5 contract positive spread arbitrage [138][139]. BZ&EB - Pure benzene is accumulating inventory, and the supply - demand contradiction of styrene is not significant. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short - term and conduct the short - pure - benzene and long - styrene arbitrage [140][141][143]. Ethylene Glycol - Taiwan's ethylene glycol plants stopped at the beginning of the month, and prices are expected to oscillate widely. The trading strategy is to oscillate widely [144][145]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber procurement sentiment is cautious, and processing fees are under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly [146][147]. Bottle Chips - Bottle chip prices follow the cost side and have a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly [148][149][150]. Propylene - Propane prices have increased, and downstream factories are actively purchasing. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short - term [151][152]. Plastic PP - Domestic medium - and long - term loans are increasing, which is beneficial to plastic PP. The trading strategy is to hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts and sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract [153][154]. Caustic Soda - The sentiment of the caustic soda market has improved, but the fundamentals are weak. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short on rallies [156]. PVC - PVC prices are mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short on rallies [157][160][161]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are strong under the influence of sentiment. The trading strategy is to not go against the sentiment in the short - term and wait and see to short in the long - term [162][163][165]. Glass - Glass prices are strong under the influence of sentiment. The trading strategy is to not go against the sentiment in the short - term and wait and see to short in the long - term [166][167]. Methanol - Methanol prices are having a short - term correction. The trading strategy is to oscillate strongly [170][171]. Urea - Urea prices are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions, pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options on a callback [173][174][175]. Pulp - Pulp prices are oscillating widely at a high level. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short against the previous high [177][179][180]. Logs - The price of 6 - meter radiata pine is slightly strengthening. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy a small amount of long positions and look for opportunities for the 3 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [182][183][184]. Offset Printing Paper - High inventory suppresses the implementation of the cultural paper price increase letter. The trading strategy is to wait and see and sell the OP2603 - C - 4300 option [185][186]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The real - estate market has improved, which is beneficial to natural rubber. The trading strategy is to wait and see for the RU 05 contract, hold long positions in the NR 03 contract, and conduct the RU2605 - NR2605 arbitrage [187][188][189]. Butadiene Rubber - Butadiene rubber prices are rising. The trading strategy is to hold long positions in the BR 03 contract and conduct the BR2603 - NR2603 arbitrage [190][191][192].

证券日报网讯1月7日，恒邦股份（002237）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年业绩情况， 请关注公司后续披露的2025年年度报告。 ...

| 企业名称 | 北京遇见黄金有限公司 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 法定代表人 | 冯哲 8 关联企业 27 | 登记状态 ② | | | | 成立日期 | | 统一社会信用代码 ⑦ | 91110400MAK3NEG28Q | 注册资本 2 | | 工商注册号 | 110400046377109 | 纳税人识别号 ⑦ | | 营业期限 | 2025-12-11 至 无固定期限 | 纳税人资质 | | 企业类型 | 其他有限责任公司 | 行业 | | 参保人数 | | 英文名称 | | 登记机关 | 北京经济技术开发区市场监督管理局 | 注册地址 ② | | 经营范围 ⑦ | 一般项目： 稀有稀土金属冶炼; 铁合金冶炼; 常用有色金属) 外);工艺美术品及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其制品除外）;珠፺ | | | | (除销售需要许可的商品);货物进出口;技术进出口;进出 | | | | （依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动 | | | | 经营活动。) | | 来源：天眼查 北京时间25年12月11日，据天眼查信息显示，北京遇见黄金有限公司在北京经济技术开发区市场监督管理局 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美国股市全线飘红，在人工智能乐观情绪推动下，芯片股大幅上扬，凸显出 AI 叙事是今年 发展的关键主线。2026 年 1 月 5 - 6 日，中国人民银行召开工作会议，强调继续推行适度宽松货币政 策，提升金融服务实体经济效能，加大对扩大内需、科技创新的支持，稳妥化解重点金融风险，深化金 融改革与对外开放，释放稳健政策信号，稳定了市场消费预期。 基本面方面，1 月锌精矿加工费（TC）明显下滑，国内炼厂检修持续，供应端压力较小。节后下游消 费逐步复苏，叠加 2026 年一季度开门红预期，节后多头积极入场，推动盘面显著走高。技术面上，沪 锌仍处于反弹形态，不过 2.43 万元/吨一线仍存阻力。此外，下游对高价锌接受程度有限，短期需警惕 多头情绪回落引发的调整。 整体来看，宏观情绪乐观，有色板块多头情绪高涨带动锌价走强。国内矿紧现实与现货升水提供支撑， 沪锌延续反弹态势，今现锌价格或上涨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】铜铝迭创新高带动期货看涨氛围，隔夜伦锌跟涨1.17%；有色板块多头情绪高涨，国内 矿紧现实与 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - policies. Different industries show different trends, with some expected to be strong in the short - term, some in a state of shock, and others facing downward pressure [2][3][4] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical events, and investors need to pay attention to the follow - up impact of these events on different industries [2][13][15] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the nickel price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000, with attention to the breakthrough around 150,000 [2][40] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern. The 05 contract is recommended to buy at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][59] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][79] - **Silver**: The tight inventory boosts the price. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy [6][17] Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market is on the rise, and the four major stock index futures contracts are all rising. It is recommended to hold a bullish spread portfolio and build a covered call portfolio on dips [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and tend to steepen the curve [10][11][12] Precious Metals - The geopolitical risks and supply tightness drive the prices of precious metals to rise. Gold is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300. Silver is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term and are recommended to be lightly long on dips [13][15][17] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a new high. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [18][21][22] - **Alumina**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2,700 - 3,000 [22][24] - **Aluminum**: The price hits a new high. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 23,800 - 24,800. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and long positions can be established on dips [24][26][27] - **Zinc**: The price center moves up. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference support at 23,300 - 23,400. Long positions can be held, and cross - market reverse arbitrage can be continued [30][33] - **Tin**: Affected by news and sentiment, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [34][38] - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000 [2][38][40] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by raw material tightening expectations, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [41][44] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is rising strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there are risks of liquidity and regulation. It is recommended to wait and see and convert long positions to call options appropriately [45][49][50] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rises and then falls. It is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [50][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [52][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The night - session raw materials drive the steel price to rise. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the range, with a reference range of 3,000 - 3,200 for rebar and 3,150 - 3,350 for hot - rolled coils [55][56] - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][58][59] - **Coking Coal**: The price is weak in the spot market. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [60][63] - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts is implemented. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [64][68] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the policy, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 5,500 - 6,000 [69][71] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is supported by manganese ore. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 6,000 [72][74] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The global loose pattern and South American bumper harvest expectations suppress the market. The domestic spot is loose. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [75][76][77] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][78][79] - **Corn**: There is a game between short - selling and policy support. The price is expected to fluctuate [80][81] - **Sugar**: The international market is affected by Brazil and India. The domestic market is affected by the peak season of sugar production. It is expected to be in a low - level shock [83][84] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is expected to be in a shock. The domestic cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [85] - **Egg**: The supply pressure is relieved. The price is expected to be in a low - level shock [88] - **Oil**: The palm oil may face downward pressure. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to have limited upside [89][90][91] - **Jujube**: The price is stable, but the trading volume is poor. It is necessary to pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking and the planting area in 2026 [92] - **Apple**: The good - quality fruit is scarce, driving the price up. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual de - stocking progress [93][94] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [95][96] - **PTA**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [97][98] - **Short - fiber**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to follow the raw materials to fluctuate [99][100] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and the processing fee has limited upside space [101][102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in January [103][104] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is stable, and the demand is slightly improved. The price is under pressure due to high inventory [106] - **Styrene**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The price rebound space is limited [107][108] - **LLDPE**: The market is covering short positions. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term [109] - **PP**: The supply and demand are weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit expansion [110] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounds, and the spot price is stable. The market is expected to be stable and weak [111][113] - **PVC**: The price rises, but the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is expected to decline in a shock [114] - **Urea**: The Indian tender result boosts the market. It is expected to be strong in a shock in the short - term [115] - **Soda Ash**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118][119] - **Glass**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the sales and production sustainability. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119] - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment drives the price up. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited. The BR contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short [121][123]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月07日 (原油) 夜盘油价遭遇回调，近期油价呈现剧烈波动特点。伊朗局势持续紧张但目前仍在可控范围内，市场 对地缘风险紧张情绪逐渐趋弱,盘面呈现高位卖压与空头增仓。地缘风险能否有效提振油价,取决 于其是否对供应造成实质性减量，否则对油价的影响将仅限于短期波动，且盘面反应力度会逐步减 弱。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延 续，贵金属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，维持多 头参与思路。今晚关注美国ADP就业、ISM非制造业PMI以及职位空缺数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价记录位置震荡，沪铜关注仓量变动。花旗上调短线铜目标位至1.4万美元、约10.8-10.9万 一线，中长线维持1.3万美元；高盛表示铜实际需求承压，不过走势关键在美伦价差，昨日两市价差 收窄到50美元。国内观铜走高到103665元，上海贴水20元，精废价差6100元。因跨年涨势快LME实 值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35万美元。观望，前期2602期权组合策略减仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics. The stock index continues to be strong, while the bond market is weak. In the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply and demand among various varieties. In the black metal and non - ferrous metal sectors, prices are affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and geopolitical events. The energy and chemical sector also shows price fluctuations due to geopolitical and supply - demand factors [19][23][26]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Derivatives 1. Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: Fluctuations do not change the upward trend. The stock index continued to rise strongly on Tuesday, with all major indices hitting new highs. The market sentiment was high, and short - term stock indices still had upward momentum [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: With the increase in risk appetite, the bond market tends to be weak. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and short - term bond markets may continue to be weak, but the space for further adjustment is relatively limited [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [24]. Agricultural Products 1. Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: Supply pressure still exists, and US soybeans continue to decline. International soybeans are under cost pressure, but due to the relatively low inventory of South American old crops, the decline in prices may be limited. Domestic soybeans may have some support on the spot side [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be mainly based on range - bound operation; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, use a short straddle strategy [27]. 2. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: International sugar prices rose slightly, and domestic sugar prices were slightly stronger. International sugar prices may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and domestic sugar prices may also be slightly stronger, but there is still pressure at the upper shock platform [28][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - oscillate in the short term, and Zheng sugar is expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [31]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - **Core Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and oils have risen. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upside space is restricted. Geopolitical factors may have more emotional impact than real impact [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oils will oscillate in the short term, and the idea for palm oil is to short at the upper edge of the range after a rebound; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: US corn is weak, and the spot price of domestic corn is stable in the short term but still under pressure in the long term [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: For the outer 03 corn, buy on dips during the bottom - oscillation; for the 07 corn, adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, wait and see [37]. 5. Live Hogs - **Core Viewpoint**: Supply pressure still exists, and the spot price oscillates. The overall inventory of live hogs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists, so the pig price is still under pressure [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a short - selling strategy; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use a short straddle strategy [40]. 6. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. The spot price is stable, and the 03 peanut futures have a warehouse - receipt game, but the supply of oil - using peanuts is loose, so the futures price oscillates at the bottom [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The 05 peanut futures will oscillate at the bottom, buy on dips but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 7. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: The demand is average, and the egg price rises steadily. In the short term, the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month May contract can consider building long positions on dips [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The February contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and consider building long positions on the far - month May contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [46]. 8. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price oscillates at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, which supports the futures price. If the cold - storage apple delivery can maintain a normal level, the supply may be tight in the future [48][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold the long position of the May contract and short the October contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on May and short on October; for options, wait and see [50]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The expected planting area in the new year will decline, and the cotton price will oscillate strongly. The expected reduction in the planting area and strong sales progress support the cotton price, but there may be a short - term correction risk [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and Zheng cotton will oscillate strongly; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [53]. Black Metals 1. Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the steel price oscillates within a range. The steel market is affected by factors such as production resumption, inventory, demand, and policies. Although there is support in the short term, the upward space may be suppressed in the future [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, wait and see [57]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: They continue to oscillate widely. Affected by macro - sentiment and seasonal factors, the coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Do not chase the rise, and try to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [60]. 3. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the ore price oscillates. The global iron ore supply is loose, and the domestic terminal steel demand is declining, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The price will oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [63]. 4. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: With the expectation of marginal improvement in supply and demand and cost - push, they are short - term bullish. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be short - term bullish due to factors such as supply contraction expectations and cost support [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: They are short - term bullish; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors dominate, and they may oscillate strongly in the short term. Affected by geopolitical events and market sentiment, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to short - term pressure [66][67]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold long positions of Shanghai gold and silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [67][68]. 2. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The sentiment of long - position funds is warming up, and they are back on the upward channel. Platinum is expected to be bullish due to tight supply - demand fundamentals, while palladium may be affected by the macro - environment and show a linkage with platinum [70][71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Go long on platinum on dips based on the MA5 daily line, and wait and see on palladium; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [72]. 3. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Supported by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the copper price is in an upward trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The upward trend remains unchanged, and control the position to buy on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [74]. 4. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: Driven by policy expectations, the alumina price rises. Market concerns about policies related to red mud treatment drive the price up, but the fundamentals change little [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The price rises driven by policy expectations; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [79]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly. Driven by factors such as global aluminum shortage expectations and geopolitical risks, the aluminum price is rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the trend, hold long positions and control the position; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [82]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It runs strongly following the sector. Affected by geopolitical risks and cost factors, the aluminum alloy price rises following the sector, but the trading volume is light [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It runs strongly following the sector; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [85]. 7. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side, and the zinc price may run at a high level. The zinc market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is mainly affected by macro - factors and capital. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing the rise [87][89]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It runs at a high level, and pay attention to the capital sentiment; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [89]. 8. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the changes in domestic social inventory. The lead market has a situation of short - supply and certain consumption resilience. Low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds, and the price may rise [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of the capital side; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [92]. 9. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: Speculation on resource products, and the nickel price returns to the financial attribute. The nickel price is in a large - scale upward trend, and the financial attribute is restored. It is recommended to follow the trend, but be vigilant against correction risks [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Adopt a bullish strategy and be vigilant against correction risks; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [94][96]. 10. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. Affected by factors such as nickel ore quota contraction and tight hot - rolled resources, the stainless - steel price follows the nickel price, but the upward drive is weaker [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the rise of the nickel price; for arbitrage, wait and see [98]. 11. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: It is short - term bullish and bearish in the medium - term. The industrial silicon market has a situation of high production and possible inventory accumulation, but it may rebound in the short term due to market sentiment. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [100][101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish and short on rallies in the medium - term; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [102]. 12. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The downstream price rises, the spot transaction center moves up, and it is bullish. Driven by the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry chain, the polysilicon price is expected to be bullish in the long - term, but be cautious in the short - term [103]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is bullish, but be cautious and pay attention to risk control; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell put options [104]. 13. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the price runs strongly. Although there may be inventory accumulation in January, the price is difficult to fall deeply due to the replenishment demand of upstream and downstream. The long - term trend is good [106]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Control the position and operate cautiously [107]. 14. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Driven by AI demand, the tin price rises with increasing positions. Affected by geopolitical events and AI demand, the tin price rises, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption realization [109][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the logic of long - position funds to trade; for options, wait and see [112]. Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price is peaking, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The container shipping market is in a situation of price game, and the demand is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of shipping companies and geopolitical impacts [114]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be closed on rallies, and the remaining light positions can be held at discretion; for arbitrage, wait and see [114][116]. Energy and Chemicals 1. Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to fluctuate widely. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other geopolitical factors, the crude - oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the Brent main - contract price range [118][119]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It will fluctuate widely; for arbitrage, domestic gasoline is relatively strong, diesel is relatively weak, and the crude - oil monthly spread is strong; for options, wait and see [119]. 2. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The raw - material contradiction dominates, and the asphalt price oscillates at a high level. The asphalt market is affected by raw - material supply and demand. Although the demand is in the off - season, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [121][122]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It will oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [122]. 3. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the price fluctuation intensifies. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other factors, the fuel - oil price fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Venezuela [124][125]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish, but be vigilant against geopolitical risks and do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread opportunity, and both low - sulfur and high - sulfur cracking are weak; for options, wait and see [125][126]. 4. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM oscillates at a low level, and HH searches for support downward. Affected by temperature and inventory factors, the natural - gas price is expected to decline in the long - term, and the short position of the third - quarter TTF contract can be held [127][128]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold the short position of the third - quarter TTF or JKM contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [129]. 5. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Supported by geopolitical premium. Affected by factors such as the rise in Saudi CP prices and geopolitical risks, the LPG price has support in the short - term, but it is under pressure in the long - term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the follow

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

Group 1: International News - Venezuela and the U.S. are negotiating the issue of oil exports to the U.S. [10] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on tariff issues on January 9 [10] - Saudi Arabia will open its financial market to all foreign investors [10] Group 2: Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, closing up 0.28% at 98.59, the highest in over two weeks [3] - Spot gold rose 1.04% to $4495.09 per ounce, while spot silver increased by 6.06% to $81.25 per ounce, reaching a high not seen since December 29 of the previous year [3][7] - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.22% to $56.86 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.07% to $60.43 per barrel [3][7] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - European major stock indices mostly rose, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.18% and the German DAX up 0.09% [4] - U.S. stock indices all increased, with the Dow Jones up 0.99% and the S&P 500 up 0.6%, both reaching new highs [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.38%, with significant gains in technology and financial sectors [5] Group 4: A-share Market - The three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.5%, marking a 13-day winning streak and a ten-year high [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 260.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - The insurance sector was active, with notable gains in stocks like New China Life Insurance, which rose over 6% [6]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 6 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：供应端仍偏宽松 价格压力相对明显 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小涨，国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 8 | | 生猪：出栏压力继续体现 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：基本面边际转弱，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 股指期货：仍有上攻动能 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：央行购债规模不及预期 4 | | 金银：地缘主导，短期内或偏强震荡 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：内盘溢价收敛，铂钯随金银上行 17 | | 铜：逢低多 ...