（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月28日电工信部等八部门发布的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》中 提到，通过设立绿色通道等方式，依法依规加快矿产资源开发项目核准、备案、节能审查、环评、安全 设施设计审查等进程，完善生产要素保障，强化矿产资源开发利用项目建设情况调度，推进在建项目投 产、在产项目扩能、新项目建设。科学合理布局氧化铝、铜冶炼、碳酸锂等项目，避免重复低水平建 设，提高投资的精准性和有效性。 ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Glencore and Jinli Group has been ongoing since 2007, with Jinli Group emerging as a benchmark enterprise in energy conservation and comprehensive recycling in the non-ferrous metal industry [3][4] - Glencore, a global leader in natural resources, reported an estimated total revenue of approximately $240 billion for 2024, ranking 24th in the Fortune Global 500 [3] - The city of Jiyuan, where Jinli Group is located, is a significant hub for non-ferrous metals in China and Asia, contributing 20.2% of the national electrolytic lead production and 23.8% of silver production in 2024 [3][4] Company Overview - Jinli Group has an annual production capacity of 650,000 tons of lead, 200,000 tons of zinc, and 2,000 tons of silver, with a comprehensive recycling capability of nearly 27,000 tons of precious metals [3][4] - Glencore operates in over 60 countries, covering various sectors including minerals, energy, metals, and agricultural products, and is committed to sustainable resource development and efficient utilization [3] Strategic Collaboration - The partnership focuses on resource utilization, technological innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives, leveraging Jiyuan's advanced smelting technologies and complete industrial chain from lead and zinc to precious metals [4] - The collaboration is seen as a model for commercial win-win scenarios and a practical implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to transform Jiyuan from a "raw material city" to a "new materials strong city" [4]

Group 1 - The 2025 National Industrial Software Conference was held in Ningbo, Zhejiang, focusing on autonomous innovation and industrial development in industrial software, gathering nearly a thousand representatives from academia, research institutions, and industry [1] - The conference released the "China Automation Technology Development Report" and the "China Automation Industry Development Report," highlighting the core strengths of automation technology and analyzing the current state and future directions of the industry [1] - The "China Automation Industry Development Report" provides a comprehensive analysis of the core product ecosystem in automation, empowering the intelligent transformation of key sectors in the national economy [1] Group 2 - The conference introduced the first domestic large model for the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, enabling AI to understand industrial language and control the entire production chain [3] - An industrial software achievement exhibition showcased high-level industrial software products and technical solutions, emphasizing the critical value of industrial software in driving digital transformation and high-quality development in manufacturing [5] - The conference featured six academicians delivering keynote speeches and one summit dialogue, providing strategic guidance to participating enterprises, researchers, and practitioners [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 with an upward - revised GDP growth rate, which led to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate rather than decline unilaterally. In the commodity market, different products have different trends due to various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee said the job market is cooling while inflation is rising. Trump plans to increase tariffs on kitchenware and other products starting from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%. Gold prices fluctuated and rose with increased intraday volatility. Short - term gold prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [9][10][11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on brand and patented drugs and 25% tariffs on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, and the risk appetite declined. Short - term US stocks are expected to continue to adjust [13][15][16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to the lowest level since July. Fed official Bowman believes that the weakening job market justifies further interest - rate cuts. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating economic resilience and leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor supports the implementation of offshore bond repurchase business in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 25, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate, and it is expected to continue to find the bottom in the first half of October and may stabilize and rise in the second half [22][23][24] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Argentina resumed the export withholding tax on grains and other agricultural products. The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report on September 30. After the end of Argentina's export tax - exemption policy, the prices of domestic and foreign futures contracts stabilized and are expected to resume a fluctuating trend [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 11.31% month - on - month. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products. The global oil market rebounded, and the trading focus may return to the US biofuel policy. It is recommended to control positions before the National Day holiday [30][31][32] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - September 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of pig iron increased by 0.7% and that of steel products increased by 5.4%. As of September 25, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound before the holiday [33][34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract closed higher. The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the distribution areas is stable. The price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption, and the fundamentals are bearish [37][38] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate of North China's starch plants increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The downstream demand is weak, but the price of the 11 - contract has rebounded recently. It is recommended to widen the price difference between corn and starch at low prices [39][40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 24, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises decreased by 9.49%. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and the 11 - contract is relatively strong, while the far - month contracts are weak. The new corn is expected to have a good harvest, and the price is expected to be bearish in the medium term [40][41] 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On September 25, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The market trading was dull, and the price increase was limited. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the coal price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range around the long - term agreement price [42] 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon made key progress. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. Steel mills maintained low - volume replenishment before the holiday, and the price was supported. The fundamentals are in a dilemma, and the price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range [44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The price of polysilicon increased this week, and the production in October is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the price is expected to be difficult to fall in October. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, but the component price remained stable. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China announced new climate goals. Last week, there were no new furnace openings or closures. The southern silicon plants may reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [49][50] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the conditions for 190 mines to resume operations. The nickel ore price is firm, and the MHP price is strong. The global pure nickel inventory is high, and the nickel price lacks upward momentum. However, there are potential supply disturbances, and the low - valued nickel price has long - term bullish allocation value. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [51][52] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 24, the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $40.08 per ton. The downstream enterprises continued to stock up before the holiday, and the lead ingot social inventory continued to decline. The LME lead price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai lead price strengthened. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward [53][54] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Galvanized sheet enterprises plan to maintain normal production during the National Day holiday. As of September 25, the seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. The LME zinc price rebounded, and the Shanghai zinc price has support before the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [55][56][57] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tibet Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. The market is currently in a strong de - stocking reality. The price is expected to be under pressure before the actual resumption of production, and it may enter a downward channel after the demand peak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [58] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of September 25, the weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range [59][60][61] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On September 25, the PX price increased. Some domestic PX plants may postpone maintenance and expand production in Q4, and the PTA maintenance plan in Q4 increased. The PX inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][64] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis remained stable. The terminal orders increased slightly, and the PTA inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September - October and increase in November. The price is expected to fluctuate, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [65][66][67] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of September 19, the US natural gas inventory increased by 75 Bcf week - on - week. The natural gas price is expected to be supported in early winter but may be under pressure later. The European natural gas inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the price may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On September 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong had sporadic changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to weaken in the later stage. The downward space of the futures price is limited [70][71] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mostly stable. The futures price of the main contract continued to rise. The fundamentals of pulp are not good, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [72][73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fluctuated strongly. The futures price fluctuated strongly, but the downstream procurement was not active. The fundamentals are weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. The impact of domestic policy support should be monitored [75] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the output of Chinese styrene decreased slightly. The styrene price fluctuated narrowly, and the basis weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [76][77][79] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - China announced the 2035 carbon - reduction target, and the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)" was released. The trading volume of the national carbon market did not increase significantly, and the price stabilized. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the CEA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [80][81][82] 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd announced a price increase starting from October 15. The European line futures price continued to be strong. The price increase may not be implemented, and the price is expected to be affected by funds and sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly [83][84]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by the Bank of China Liaocheng Branch to enhance cross-border financial services for import and export enterprises, particularly through the implementation of electronic document review for cross-border remittances, which significantly improves efficiency and reduces processing time for businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Business Impact - The implementation of the electronic document review service allows enterprises to save approximately 1.1 hours per transaction, enhancing operational efficiency [2]. - From January to August 2025, the enterprise processed 178 cross-border remittance transactions through the Bank of China’s corporate online banking, totaling $1.025 billion [2]. - The new service alleviates pressure on bank counter operations, shifting from manual entry to key information review, thus saving labor costs and improving processing time by about 25 minutes per transaction [2]. Group 2: Bank's Role and Strategy - The Bank of China Liaocheng Branch actively implements policies from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to optimize foreign exchange management and enhance service quality for cross-border trade [1]. - The bank aims to leverage technology to create a win-win situation for both enterprises and the bank, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.13% amid tensions from the latest US-China talks [1] - Alibaba's significant investment in AI has positively impacted technology stocks, contributing to the rise of the Hang Seng Technology Index [1] Key Companies and Performance - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its stock rise nearly 6%, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai [2] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, China Nonferrous Mining, and Jiangxi Copper all experienced stock increases of over 8% due to supply concerns following an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [3] - BYD reported a 200% year-on-year increase in sales in Europe, while other Chinese automakers like Leap Motor and Xpeng also saw significant stock gains [4][5] Industry Trends - The copper supply-demand gap is widening, with Freeport McMoRan warning of potential contract non-fulfillment due to a mudslide at the Grasberg mine [3] - The price of rare earth metals has surged, with dysprosium prices reaching $840 per kilogram, three times higher than in April, indicating a strong market for rare earths [7] Company Developments - Kingsoft Cloud announced a share placement to raise approximately HKD 27.6 billion, with 80% allocated for AI business expansion [8] - The company reported Q2 revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.2% and a significant increase in AI revenue [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Zinc Risk Management Report - Date: September 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The zinc price rebounded slightly following the broader market in the previous trading session. The supply side remains in a surplus state. On the mine side, due to the internal and external price ratio, domestic mines have a significant price advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees slowed down in September. Overseas mines have seen a substantial increase this year, showing a loose supply situation. In terms of imports, due to the weak production capacity of overseas smelters, the increase in overseas refined zinc is limited, while zinc ore imports are at a multi-year high. On the demand side, the inventory in seven domestic regions continues to accumulate, and no peak-season phenomenon has been observed. In the short term, affected by typhoons, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The LME inventory continues to decrease, and the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc prices in terms of inventory is becoming more obvious. In terms of trading strategies, the internal and external reverse arbitrage can continue to wait and see as the LME inventory approaches its extreme value. Currently, the internal and external positive arbitrage logic for zinc ingots prevails. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate based on macroeconomic factors and consumption [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Price Volatility and Risk Management Recommendations - **Zinc Price Volatility**: The latest zinc price is 22,045, with a predicted range of 21,000 - 23,500. The current volatility is 7.74%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 3.0% [2]. - **Risk Management Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai zinc futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% with an entry range of 22,700. There is no current recommendation for Shanghai zinc options [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai zinc futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% with an entry range of 21,700. There is no current recommendation for Shanghai zinc options [2]. Core Contradictions - The zinc price rebounded slightly following the broader market. The supply side is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines having a large increase. The increase in overseas refined zinc is limited, and zinc ore imports are high. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the downstream operating rate may decline slightly due to typhoons. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the price pattern is stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The internal and external positive arbitrage logic prevails, and the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: - Overseas inventory is continuously decreasing (high probability, medium impact) [4]. - The Fed cuts interest rates more than expected (low probability, high impact) [4]. - The mine processing fee decreases (low probability, medium impact) [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Demand is weak, and peak-season consumption falls short of expectations (medium probability, medium impact) [6]. - Domestic inventory accumulates (medium probability, medium impact) [6]. - Import volume exceeds expectations year-on-year (low probability, low impact) [6]. Market Data - **Zinc Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,870 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.23% daily. The average price of SMM 1 zinc is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.23% daily [7]. - **Zinc Futures Prices**: The main Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 0.85% daily. The LME zinc closed at 2,938 US dollars/ton, up 49.5 US dollars or 1.71% daily [7]. - **Zinc Futures Inventory**: The total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 56,583 tons, down 774 tons or 1.35% daily. The total LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, down 1,375 tons or 3% daily [7]. Other Data - **LME Zinc Position and Warehouse Receipt Data**: - **LME Zinc Position**: The distribution of long and short positions in different ranges is provided [19]. - **LME Zinc Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipt holders in different ranges is provided [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees**: A comparison of domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees is presented [21].

市场早盘震荡拉升，沪指窄幅震荡，创业板指探底回升续创三年多新高。南财金融终端显示，截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0.16%，深成指涨1.14%，创业 板指涨2.22%。 盘面上热点轮动较快，AI硬件和AI应用方向集体爆发，浪潮信息涨停创历史新高，华勤技术触及涨停创新高； 有色金属概念股表现活跃，北方铜业等多股涨停； 可控核聚变概念股震荡拉升，合锻智能4天2板，哈焊华通涨停。 下跌方面，港口航运板块集体下跌，南京港盘中跌超8%。 沪深两市半日成交额1.54万亿元，较上个交易日放量1348亿。 个股方面，立讯精密成交额超152亿元居首，新易盛、中际旭创、宁德时代成交额靠前。 | 治深A股 | 上证A股 深证A股 | | 创业板 科创板 风险警示 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | | 名称 | 涨幅 | 最新价 | | | | | | 成交额▼ | | 1 002475 | | 立讯精密 | -1.11% | 69.42 | -0.78 | -0.07% | 0.63 | 3.0 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, so the idea is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, considering the weak repair of domestic demand and the expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but in the short - term, it may be in a volatile pattern due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - For precious metals, as the Fed's key figures still have a dovish monetary policy stance after the September interest - rate meeting, it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - In the black sector, there is a short - term risk of downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday, but in the future, it may gradually have the cost - performance for long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [37]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: It is expected that China's annual automobile sales will reach 40 million units during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period; six departments prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity; Alibaba will cooperate with NVIDIA in Physical AI and plans to increase investment in AI infrastructure; the chip mania triggered by AI has spread to the storage chip field [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, and the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds are lower than the valuation. The central bank conducted a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in August continued to slow down. Although the central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds, the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices showed different trends. The US real estate data was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metals, but the Fed's key figures had a dovish stance [7]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for precious metals, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver given [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, LME copper rose significantly, and the supply - side disturbances stimulated the price. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper inventory also changed [10]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Fed's attitude is relatively hawkish in the short - term, if the interest - rate cut process advances, the market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, LME aluminum rebounded, and the increase in copper prices drove the sentiment in the aluminum market. Domestic and foreign aluminum inventories changed, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Fed's statement is not as dovish as expected, the aluminum price has strong support below and may rise in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic and foreign zinc inventories changed, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots were negative [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore surplus has eased, and the Fed's monetary policy has cooled the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index fell slightly. The domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy View**: The raw material shortage restricts the production of primary lead, while the profit of recycled lead has improved. The domestic lead ingot inventory has decreased, and the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the high inventory of refined nickel may drag down the nickel price, but in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, and the operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 24, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream demand was in the peak season [18]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the carbonate lithium continued to fluctuate. The price of the LC2511 contract decreased, and the spot price was stable [19]. - **Strategy View**: The current strong demand supports the bottom, but the supply recovery expectation suppresses the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply, demand, and market sentiment [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 24, the alumina index rose. The domestic and foreign prices and inventories changed, and the import window opened [20]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, and the operating range for the domestic main contract is given [21][22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but the consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Wednesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rebounded. The inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the price is under pressure due to the delivery pressure, and the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: The commodity market was in a good mood, but the demand for steel was weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy trends of the "Fourth Plenary Session" [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The overseas iron - ore shipment decreased, the iron - water output increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [30][31]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the iron - water output is still strong, and the iron - ore price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to observe the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose significantly. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short increased and decreased respectively [32]. - **Strategy View**: The policy and price increase of some enterprises pushed up the glass price, but the terminal demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and be bullish in the short - term [33]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda - ash main contract rose. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [34]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, the production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is flat. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 24, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the price differences changed [35]. - **Strategy View**: The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, but in the long - term, it may be suitable for long - term allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [36][37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price was stable [38]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand improvement and policy changes [39][40]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price changed slightly [41]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Typhoon "Hagasa" is a positive factor, while the EU's delay in implementing anti - deforestation laws reduces positive factors. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber changed [44][46]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral or slightly bullish view, and go long on dips with quick entry and exit [48]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures and related refined - oil futures rose. The gasoline inventory in Singapore increased, while the diesel, fuel - oil, and total refined - oil inventories decreased [49]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to be long on crude oil, as the current price is undervalued, and if the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [50]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract changed. The 1 - 5 price difference was in a low - level shock [51]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of methanol decreased, and the demand improved marginally, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price of urea in Shandong was stable, while that in Henan decreased. The main contract price and price differences changed [54]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of urea increased, and the demand was weak. The urea price is expected to have no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [54]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost, spot, and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory also changed [55]. - **Strategy View**: The BZN price difference is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on the pure - benzene US - South Korea price difference on dips [56]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost was stable, the production and demand changed, and the inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PVC is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [59]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [60]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [61]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [62]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PTA has many unexpected maintenance situations, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract rose. The load of PX decreased, and the inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation recovery [65]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract rose. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory increased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to fluctuate upward, as the cost has support, and the demand may improve seasonally [67]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract rose. The upstream operating rate was stable, the inventory decreased in some places and increased in others, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PP has pressure, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [70]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices showed different trends. The supply of standard pigs is abundant, and the pig prices may be stable or decline today [72]. - **Strategy View**: The current spot price of pigs may decline slightly, and the futures price may continue to be weak. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mainly stable, with a few adjustments. The supply was stable, and the egg prices may be stable or decline today [74]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price of eggs is expected to decline, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after the price decline [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The US soybean price decreased slightly, and Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax, which is negative for the international soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly, and the inventory changed [76][77]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply of soybean meal has pressure, and the global soybean supply is loose. The soybean meal market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of Malaysian palm oil changed, and the export, production, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil also changed. The domestic three major oils rebounded [79]. - **Strategy View**: The oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions were stable, and the production of the next crushing season in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [81][82]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price decreased, and the inventory and operating rates of the downstream industry changed [84].