1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The price center of the contract during the session slightly shifted up to 13,870 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.29% at 13,870 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 845 yuan/ton. With Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas in full tapping, and the Sino - Thai consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports, along with the improved macro - expectations after the leaders of China and the US communicated, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,466 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,397 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.37% at 2,455 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. Due to the potential breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the Israeli attack on Iran, and the subsequent military retaliation from Iran, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, which may lead to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and disrupt overseas supply. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and upward - biased pattern [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, adding positions, oscillating weakly downward at a high level, and closing slightly lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 531.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 508.3 yuan/barrel, closing with a slight decrease of 0.81% at 524.9 yuan/barrel. After the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the crude oil supply may face a shortage risk. After the short - term positive factors are digested, differences between bulls and bears in the oil market have emerged. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%, and the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [8]. - As of June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.60 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The average weekly methanol production in China was 1.9827 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 840 tons, and a significant increase of 241,500 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. The acetic acid operating rate was 98.81%, a week - on - week increase of 10.99%. The MTBE operating rate was 49.33%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 211 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 278 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 514,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 336,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 177,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,900 tons. As of the week of June 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 379,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 29,600 tons [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 442, a week - on - week decrease of 19 and a year - on - year decrease of 50. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.428 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 228,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 432 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.644 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 27.237 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.683 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 403,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 237,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.60 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown an oscillating and stable trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 10, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average. As of June 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 182,440 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 26,921 contracts and a significant increase of 46,905 contracts or 34.41% compared with the May average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 13,870 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,625 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,455 yuan/ton | - 9 yuan/ton | + 170 yuan/ton | + 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 508.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 524.9 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.5 yuan/barrel | + 7.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-17 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 5 月宏观数据公布，社零数据表现亮眼 观点分享： 昨日公布了最新的国内宏观经济数据，5 月社会消费品零售同比增 6.4%，创 2023 年 12 月来最高；5 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，新能源汽车、工业机器人产量较快增长； 1-5 月份城镇固定资产投资增长 3.7%。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.6%，制造业投 资增长 8.5%，房地产开发投资下降 10.7%；1-5 月房地产开发投资同比下降 10.7%，5 月 70 城房价：各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线、二线新房房价环比转降。其中最亮眼的当 属社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，远超市场预期的 5%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效， 限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分 别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。汽车类零售同比增长 1.1%，石油及制品类零售下 滑7%。可以看到消费市场正在逐步恢复活力，尤其是在节假日和 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Li Jin, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jie, and Feng Zeren [3][4] - Data Sources: Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in position and rose today, with the 09 main contract also increasing in position. The weighted contract showed a large intraday increase followed by a decline, and finally closed with a large real - body positive line with long upper and lower shadows, rising 2.84% overall. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong, but in the medium - term, there are still pressures on the domestic production and supply side, and there may be a peak - to - trough decline in the phased market [5]. - Technically, in the short - term, it is considered to be in a volatile and strong - running state. In the hourly line cycle, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area twice, and the MACD fast and slow lines ran above the zero axis. In the daily line cycle, the MACD fast line has crossed above the zero axis, the RSI entered the overbought area and became dull, and the price broke through the downward - trend pressure line [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the trading volume, open interest, change in open interest, and speculation degree of contracts MA2601, MA2505, and MA2509 are presented. Among them, the MA2509 contract had a trading volume of 2,593,634, an open interest of 820,106, and an open - interest increase of 58,791, with a rise of 3.14% [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Furan Energy Group Co., Ltd. is seizing opportunities to layout the green hydrogen - based energy industry by increasing capital and merging green methanol companies. Green methanol is a green hydrogen - based energy produced from renewable energy or biomass resources. It is in an undersupplied market pattern, with its global annual production capacity expected to increase from 500,000 tons in 2023 (less than 1% of the total) to 1.95 million tons in 2028 (about 10% of the total) [13]. Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including futures prices and warrant quantities, the price difference between MA09 and MA01, the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, the profits of three methanol production processes, and overseas methanol market prices [15][18][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性上升，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向将主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【530-570】 | | LPG | | 成本端油价走强，基本面边际改善，液化气短线偏强。原油受伊以冲突带 | | | | 动走强，成本端利好；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | 偏强 | 库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：短线偏强，波动加剧，双买 | | | | 期权。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 成本支撑好转，期现齐涨，华北基差为-18（环比-17），关注后续库存去 化力度。本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量继续增加；社会库存转为累库， | | | | 农膜需求淡季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略： | | | | 短期地缘冲突尚不明朗，空单减持。基差维持负值，上游企业可择机卖保。 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in WTI crude oil futures, which surged nearly 14%, and COMEX gold, which rose nearly 2% before experiencing a pullback [1] - The stock markets in multiple countries have reacted negatively, with the three major US stock indices closing lower, while sectors such as oil, gold, military industry, and nuclear pollution prevention in the A-share market showed strength [1] - The Middle East situation is expected to have a limited impact on international gold prices, as the market's risk aversion sentiment may suppress gold prices, although a continued depreciation of the US dollar could support gold prices [4][5] Group 2 - The Middle East region accounts for approximately 15% of global methanol production capacity, with Iran being the largest producer, contributing about 8.6% of global capacity in 2023 [4] - The military sector is viewed positively by several analysts, especially with the upcoming 55th Paris Air Show scheduled for June 16-22, 2025, where significant Chinese military aircraft will be showcased [5] - Analysts believe that the impact of the Middle East situation on global stock markets will weaken, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing support from moving averages [5][6]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...