Core Viewpoint - The oil transportation market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases, with expectations for a potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Transportation Market Dynamics - In January 2025, the U.S. imposed large-scale sanctions on Russian oil tankers, leading to a short-term spike in transportation rates. The compliance demand for crude oil transportation remained high, keeping rates elevated in Q1 2025 [2]. - By June 30, 2025, the BDTI composite index was reported at 984 points, a 15.4% increase from the beginning of the year, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE was at $29,300 per day, reflecting a 37.0% increase [2]. - The oil demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, with IEA projecting a growth of 720,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 740,000 barrels per day for 2026 [3]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Impact - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August 2025, contributing to a projected global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day [3]. - The increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to be 1.4 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ will contribute an additional 400,000 barrels per day [3]. - The long-term outlook suggests that as non-OPEC+ countries gain market share, oil transportation demand from regions like West Africa, Brazil, the U.S., and Norway will continue to rise, potentially reshaping the oil transportation landscape [3]. Group 3: Recent Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.25%. The CSI 300 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50% [4]. - The transportation sector, particularly shipping, performed relatively well, with the shipping sub-sector rising by 1.91%, while the aviation sector faced a decline of 2.74% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Container Shipping - The EC futures market showed mixed trends on July 9, with EC2508 rising 0.31% to 2012.5 points. The latest SCFIS European Line index increased by 6.3% week - on - week to 2258.04 points, and the SCFI European Line rose 3.5% to $2101/TEU [2][4]. - Spot freight rates vary among major shipping companies. The OA Alliance maintains high - level quotes due to good cargo collection. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is increasing, and July is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. - The short - term market is expected to be supported by Maersk's unchanged rates, driving the EC2508 contract to be relatively strong. The far - month contracts need to focus on the cease - fire negotiations [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by about 0.4% to 1431 points on July 8, the lowest since June 3. The Capesize vessel freight index declined for the 16th consecutive day, while the Panamax vessel index reached its highest point since August last year [12]. - Spot freight rates for Capesize vessels' iron ore routes decreased, while some coal and grain routes of Panamax vessels showed different trends. The iron ore and grain shipping volumes decreased in the recent period [13][15]. - The Capesize vessel market is under pressure due to limited cargo volume, while the Panamax vessel market is expected to be relatively strong due to coal and grain transportation demand [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping - On July 8, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) remained unchanged at 935 points, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) decreased by 0.19% to 534 points. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Futures Market - Different EC contracts showed different price changes on July 9. For example, EC2508 rose 0.31%, while EC2510 fell 0.34%. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - The monthly spread structure also changed, with some spreads rising and some falling [2]. Freight Rates - The SCFIS European Line index increased by 6.35% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West Line index decreased by 3.79%. The SCFI comprehensive index decreased by 5.27% [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - The market is affected by shipping company quotes, demand - supply dynamics, and tariff policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and conduct rolling operations for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Index - The BDI decreased by 0.35% on July 8, the BCI decreased by 4.05%, the BPI increased by 2.48%, and the BSI increased by 2.27% [12]. Spot Freight Rates - Spot freight rates for different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels showed various trends on July 8 and in the week of July 4 [12][13]. Shipping Volume - From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 362.7 million tons. In June 2025, the soybean shipping volume from Brazil was lower than that in July last year [14][15]. Market Analysis - The Capesize vessel market is weak due to limited cargo volume, while the Panamax vessel market is expected to be strong due to coal and grain demand [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping Freight Index - On July 8, the BDTI remained unchanged, and the BCTI decreased by 0.19%. The average earnings of different types of oil tankers showed different trends [21][22]. Market Analysis - The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums, and the demand side is weak during the refinery maintenance period [23]. Industry News - There are various news related to tariffs, shipping volume, and geopolitical situations, such as Trump's tariff announcements, shipping volume data from different regions, and the cease - fire negotiation progress in the Gaza Strip [8][10][15]. Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing different shipping indices and freight rates over time, including SCFIS, SCFI, BDI, BDTI, etc. [27][36][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant market reversals in the domestic futures market driven by macro policies, supply-demand changes, and geopolitical events, highlighting historical trends and potential future implications. Group 1: Historical Market Trends - From 2001 to 2007, a super cycle in commodities was driven by the rapid industrialization of China post-WTO accession and a drop in U.S. interest rates to 1% [2][4]. - Notable price increases included copper rising from 15,000 CNY/ton in 2002 to 85,000 CNY/ton in 2006, and rubber increasing from 6,000 CNY/ton in 2001 to 30,000 CNY/ton in 2006, primarily due to infrastructure demands and supply constraints [3][4]. Group 2: Recovery Post-Financial Crisis - The period from 2008 to 2011 saw a recovery following the global financial crisis, with China's "four trillion" stimulus plan and loose monetary policy [6][7]. - Cotton prices surged from 10,000 CNY/ton in 2008 to 33,000 CNY/ton in 2010, driven by reduced production in Xinjiang and a recovery in the textile industry [7]. - Rebar prices increased from 3,400 CNY/ton in early 2009 to 5,000 CNY/ton in 2011, supported by infrastructure investments [8]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reforms - In 2016, supply-side reforms led to a reversal in the black series commodities market, with forced capacity reductions following years of overproduction [11][12]. - Coking coal prices rose from 515 CNY/ton at the end of 2015 to 1,600 CNY/ton in 2016 due to mine closures and production limits [13]. - Rebar prices increased from 1,616 CNY/ton to 3,500 CNY/ton, influenced by a recovery in real estate and infrastructure [14]. Group 4: Post-Pandemic Recovery and New Energy Revolution - The period from 2020 to 2021 was marked by a recovery from the pandemic, with global central banks injecting liquidity and China resuming production first [17][18]. - Copper prices rose from 35,000 CNY/ton in March 2020 to 78,000 CNY/ton in July 2021, driven by demand from green transition initiatives [18]. - The shipping index for Europe surged from 1,000 points in June 2020 to 10,000 points in October 2021, reflecting a recovery in global demand [18]. Group 5: Current and Future Trends - The period from 2023 to 2025 is characterized by geopolitical conflicts and resource nationalism, with significant events impacting supply chains [20][21]. - The ban on mining in Wa State in April 2023 led to a global tin supply crisis, with prices spiking due to reduced imports from China [21]. - The shipping index for Europe increased from 701.6 points in October 2023 to 4,769.9 points by July 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [22]. Group 6: Key Insights - Market reversals are often triggered by sudden events (e.g., mine closures, wars) or strong policies (e.g., supply-side reforms, monetary easing) [25]. - Supply-demand mismatches, particularly under low inventory and rigid demand conditions, can lead to significant price volatility [25]. - The current market is in a "high volatility norm," with a focus on copper (due to new energy demand), shipping (geopolitical risks), and tin (resource scarcity) [26].

1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

Group 1 - The legal opinion letter is issued by Beijing Dacheng (Haikou) Law Firm regarding the 2025 Fourth Extraordinary General Meeting of Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. [1][2] - The meeting was proposed and convened by the Board of Directors, with a resolution passed on June 23, 2025, to hold the meeting [2][3]. - The notice and proposal content for the meeting were announced on June 20 and June 24, 2025, through various platforms including the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [3][4]. Group 2 - The meeting was held using a combination of on-site and online voting, with the on-site meeting taking place at the Port and Shipping Building [3][4]. - The meeting was attended by a total of 426 shareholders and representatives, representing 1,628,000,061 shares, which is 73.04% of the total shares [4][5]. - Online voting was conducted with 423 shareholders participating, representing 23,234,931 shares, which is 1.04% of the total shares [5]. Group 3 - The proposals for the meeting included significant matters affecting minority investors, with separate counting of votes for minority shareholders [6][7]. - The voting process was conducted through a registered voting method and online voting, with results announced immediately after the voting [6][7]. - The total votes for the proposals showed that the resolutions were passed, with a combined total of 1,648,112,491 shares in favor [7][8]. Group 4 - The legal opinion concludes that the convening and holding procedures of the meeting comply with relevant laws, regulations, and the company's articles of association [8]. - The qualifications of the attendees and the convenor were deemed valid, and the voting procedures and results were confirmed as legal and effective [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates, as the shipping volume is gradually entering a downward period while the shipping capacity in the first week of August is as high as 340,000 TEU [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - EC2508 had a previous settlement price of 2006.2, a change of 6.23%, a basis of 251.8, a previous trading volume of 57,664, a previous open interest of 35,057, and an open interest change of 536. Other contracts (EC2510 - EC2606) also have their respective price, spread, volume, and open - interest data [1]. - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 showed different changes compared to the previous days and weeks [1]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Index - The Terdar index on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.35%. SCFI (European Line) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50%. CCFI was 1694.3, up 3.27%. NCFI was 1442.46 points, down 0.03%. TCI on July 8, 2025, remained unchanged at 1019.55 points [1]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The second week of July had neutral cargo intake with no over - booking. The third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August was 340,000 TEU [1]. 3.4 Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are currently booking spaces for mid - July (week 28 - 29). The freight rate in early July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). In late July, shipping company quotations were generally stable, with MSK offering a flat rate of 2950 US dollars. The current quotation range is 2950 - 3850 US dollars, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [2].

Group 1 - The cost of shipping goods from China to the UK has surged by approximately 60% over the past three months, reaching $3,305 for a 40-foot container, complicating the Bank of England's plans to gradually lower interest rates [1][4] - Increased shipping costs are expected to pressure UK retailers, who may pass on these costs to consumers, potentially raising consumer prices temporarily [1][5] - The rise in shipping costs is attributed to heightened demand from U.S. companies eager to import products before new tariffs take effect, which has absorbed shipping capacity and increased costs on other trade routes to Europe and the UK [1][4] Group 2 - The inflation outlook in the UK is uncertain due to rising shipping costs, which could increase the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by an estimated 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter, pushing it to 3.6% [4] - Long-term effects of U.S. tariffs may lead Chinese companies to lower prices to boost exports to the UK, potentially creating a counter-inflationary effect, but currently, rising costs are squeezing UK businesses [5] - Concerns about supply chains are prevalent, with nearly 40% of businesses with at least 10 employees expressing worries about their supply chains for the upcoming year, an increase of 5 percentage points since March [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy-driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, geopolitical risks, etc. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5] - The overseas stagflation trade has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In the domestic market, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. In the overseas market, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and the stagflation trade has cooled down [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The June non - farm payrolls performance exceeded expectations, delaying the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market, and the bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [5] - **Domestic Macro**: The economic fundamentals have increased with resilience. The "anti - involution" policy has promoted the short - term rebound of commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. Domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year have been greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [5] - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets mainly have structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to gold and other resources should be maintained [5] 2. View Highlights - **Macro**: Domestic market may see moderate RRR and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Overseas, stagflation trade cools down. Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate. Key points to watch include micro - cap stock stampedes, dollar liquidity deterioration, option liquidity, and unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7] - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7] - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by domestic and foreign policies, the price fluctuations of the sector have increased. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron ore production and shipment, etc. [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals continue to oscillate. Copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to oscillate, while zinc and nickel may oscillate downward [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to OPEC+ over - production, energy and chemicals are expected to oscillate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. may fall or oscillate downward, while some products like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to oscillate upward [9] - **Agriculture**: Rubber stabilizes after a decline. Products such as grains, oils, and livestock are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include weather, production and demand data, and market transactions [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market shows an upward trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The tariff extension will keep the cargo shipment from the Far East to the US going for some time, which is beneficial for August and reduces the expected decline from the high point in August, leading to the repair of the discount [12]. - The spot price of the European route is stable in early July. The market expects shipping companies to announce price increases in August as usual, but the actual effect may not be optimistic due to the disrupted shipping rhythm. Currently, it is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1343, down 1.92%. SCFI - US West dropped 18.97%, SCFIS - US West fell 3.83%, SCFI - US East decreased 12.57%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe rose 3.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased 6.36%, and SCFI - Mediterranean declined 3.89% [5]. - **Forward Contracts**: For EC contracts, most of the current values are higher than the previous values, with the increase rate ranging from 1.68% to 6.23%. The EC2508 contract has the highest increase rate of 6.23% [5]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the EC2606 position increased by 18, and the EC2508 position increased by 536 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 73.0, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 6.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread increased by 25.7 [5]. Important News - A ship was attacked off the southwest coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attacked ship is a Liberian - flagged, Greek - owned bulk carrier "Maxic Seas", which was hit by a maritime drone and then took in water [5]. - Some EU auto - makers and governments are pushing for a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. The EU must reach a trade deal with Trump by July 9, or the tariffs on almost all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50% [6]. - The first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended without results [7]. - CMA added an extra ship on the 11th and still has available space. MSK added an extra ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in week 31 [7][8]. - There is congestion at East China ports. MSC adjusted its port calls, either only calling at Shanghai or only at Ningbo [9]. - The loading rate of the European route was good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10]. - The OA Alliance suspended two sailings on the CES route, resulting in insufficient ship capacity and reduced cabin space [11]. Spot and Strategy - The central price of the spot in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quote in the second week of July rose slightly from 2900 to 2960, and the departure price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on the third week was 2950, higher than the previous market expectation of a decline starting from the third week [13]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread long position. Due to the relatively low shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30 and the strong opening of Maersk's cabin in week 3 of July, combined with the expected congestion in Europe, the 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]