1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump mentioned that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, and the US would talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran was progressing "very smoothly", but the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities [8][17][27][28][30][34]. - The Fed's Powell mentioned on the first day of the congressional hearing that he did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut, which might lead to an earlier expectation of a domestic interest - rate cut [9]. - For the stock index futures, the bullish pattern continues. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong to support the index, and then may rise and fall after full fermentation. In the trend, a bullish view is maintained, and the more certain way for long - position investors is to reverse and advance layout when there are disturbances such as geopolitical factors [9][10]. - The over - capacity of offset printing paper is intensifying, and it will be in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year. The price of double - offset paper is still bottom - seeking, and if Chenming restarts production, the paper price pressure may increase. There may be seasonal restocking and consumption improvement from September to November. Overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain. The strategy is to short the processing profit after the futures are listed (long pulp, short double - offset paper) [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the cease - fire of geopolitical conflicts, and silver continues to rush higher. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][20]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1 [13][22][24]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level shock. Alumina rebounds slightly, and aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][25][27]. - Zinc: It is in range adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][28]. - Lead: It runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][30]. - Tin: It has a tight - reality and weak - expectation situation, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][32][35]. - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel - ore end is loose, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. Stainless steel has a marginal weakening in supply and demand, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][37][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The contradiction of warehouse receipts still exists, and the oscillating trend continues, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and it is in a short - term shock. Polysilicon continues with the idea of short - allocation on rallies. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [13][44][46]. - Iron Ore: The expectation fluctuates, and it oscillates in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [13][49][51]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 1 [13][52][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment is released, and they oscillate strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][55][57]. - Steam Coal: The demand still needs to be released, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][59][62]. - Others: Various products such as rubber, asphalt, and plastics have different trends such as oscillating strongly, weakly oscillating, and short - term oscillating [13]. 3.2 Market News and Data - **Precious Metals**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant macro and industry news [17]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as the start of a new copper smelter and production cuts by a Japanese company [22]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy: A large amount of data on prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences are provided, along with comprehensive news [25]. - Zinc: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of zinc futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [28]. - Lead: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [30]. - Tin: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of tin futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel are provided, along with macro and industry news such as production resumptions and suspensions in the nickel industry [37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, warehouse receipts, and relevant industrial chain data of carbonate lithium are provided, along with macro and industry news [41]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with macro and industry news [44]. - Iron Ore: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as steel inventory changes and production data [49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided, along with price and position - holding information [55]. - Steam Coal: The trading situation, prices, and position - holding information of steam coal are provided, along with domestic and foreign price quotes [60].

镍库存204360吨，增加432吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存93475吨，减少1200吨。 铝库存337900吨，减少2000吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged 27% this year, reaching a multi-year high, driven by dual demand from investors and industrial buyers [1] - Unlike gold, which is primarily used for wealth storage, 80% of silver demand comes from manufacturing, particularly from solar panel manufacturers [1][4] - The current spot price of silver is $35.94, with a 12% increase observed this month [1] Group 1: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand is the main driver of silver prices, with 80% of demand stemming from manufacturing [4] - Stable consumption of silver in cutlery and electronics, alongside strong demand from solar panel manufacturers, supports price increases [3][4] - Analysts warn that if prices rise excessively, manufacturers may switch to cheaper metal alternatives [3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Individual investors are increasingly purchasing silver, with the iShares Silver Trust ETF adding nearly 11 million ounces this year to meet demand [5] - The Honest Coin Shop in New Jersey has seen a 20% increase in customer traffic, primarily from investors hoarding silver to hedge against economic uncertainty [5] - Despite high prices, many customers continue to buy silver regularly, fearing they might miss out on the price surge [5] Group 3: Silver Coin and Jewelry Market - The rising prices have sparked a "silver rush" across the U.S., with people searching for old silver coins and items to sell [3][6] - The melt value of pre-1965 25-cent coins exceeds $6.50, significantly higher than their face value [6] - Customers are increasingly looking to sell inherited or unused jewelry and silverware, opting to liquidate their assets [8] Group 4: Historical Context - Analysts believe it will be challenging for silver prices to surpass the 1980 record of $48.70 per ounce, which adjusted for inflation would be over $200 today [8] - The historical context of price surges and subsequent crashes, such as the Hunt brothers' attempt to control the market, is relevant to current market dynamics [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emerging opportunities in Southeast Asia, driven by global supply chain changes and the growth of industries such as mining, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, despite potential setbacks from U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Economic Overview - The total revenue of the companies listed in the Southeast Asia 500 reached $1.82 trillion, reflecting a 1.7% increase from the previous year, which lags behind the reported 4.1% GDP growth of the seven economies covered [1] - Indonesia has the highest number of companies on the list (109), followed by Thailand with 100 companies, while Singapore leads in revenue generation with $637.1 billion, accounting for slightly over one-third of the region's total revenue [1] Group 2: Industry Leaders - The top five companies in the Southeast Asia 500 are all involved in commodity businesses, including Trafigura (metals), PTT (oil), Pertamina (oil), Wilmar International (agriculture), and Olam Group (agriculture) [2] - The energy sector dominates the Southeast Asia 500, contributing nearly one-third of the total regional revenue, with notable growth from Bangchak, a Thai energy company, which saw a 47% increase in revenue [2] Group 3: Profitability and Technology - The most profitable companies in the list are Singapore's three major banks: DBS, OCBC, and UOB, with DBS leading at $8.5 billion in profit [3] - Despite predictions of growth in the digital economy, technology companies have a small representation in the Southeast Asia 500, with only one tech company, Sea, in the top 20 [3] Group 4: Emerging Trends - NationGate Holdings, a Malaysian contract manufacturer, experienced a remarkable 723% increase in sales, surpassing $1 billion, largely due to its role as the sole assembler of AI servers for Nvidia in the region [4] - Southeast Asia's 500 companies are increasingly playing a significant role in the global supply chain, attracting substantial capital inflows and reshaping global trade dynamics [5]

Economic Outlook - Citi projects a significant slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year, potentially reducing global economic growth to 2.4% for the year [1][7] - The first quarter showed resilience in the global economy due to preemptive purchasing by U.S. consumers and businesses to avoid tariffs, but trade indicators are increasingly reflecting tariff-related pressures [2][3] - Global growth is expected to rebound slightly to 2.5% in 2026, as tariffs begin to impact economic activity [10] Trade and Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on economic activity remains uncertain, with limited transmission to U.S. consumer prices observed so far [4] - The U.S. effective import tariff rate is expected to stabilize around 15%, with the deficit potentially averaging close to 6% of GDP [4] - Many countries, including the U.S., Canada, the UK, China, ASEAN nations, Brazil, and Mexico, are likely to see slower economic growth compared to last year [10] Stock Market Strategy - The stock market is stabilizing against a backdrop of easing trade tensions, with major indices approaching levels seen before tariff increases [11] - The consensus for global earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2025 has been adjusted down to 8%, with a top prediction of 6% [11] - The strategy has shifted from tactical to structural bullishness on Europe, supported by increased fiscal spending and a divergence from the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative [11][12] Commodity Outlook - The short-term outlook for Brent crude oil prices is expected to fluctuate around current levels, with a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel due to OPEC+ supply control [15] - Gold prices are projected to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a peak expected in Q2 2025 [16] - Basic metals and lithium are viewed with a neutral to bearish outlook, with copper prices expected to fluctuate around $8800 per ton [17] Currency Outlook - A soft landing scenario is expected to be unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, with a potential shift in market expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve [18] - The forecast for the euro to dollar exchange rate has been adjusted to 1.20, while the outlook for the dollar remains bearish in the near term [19][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its industrial internet platform and is successfully implementing its "going out" strategy, with AI application scenarios accelerating [3][10]. - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 13.51 billion yuan in 2024 to 22.68 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.5% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 927.43 million yuan in 2024 to 2.13 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 28.4% in 2027 [4][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its market presence, with over 120 mature AI application scenarios developed and contracts worth 256 million yuan signed in 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections: 1,141 million yuan (2023), 1,351 million yuan (2024), 1,642 million yuan (2025), 1,947 million yuan (2026), and 2,268 million yuan (2027) [4][11]. - Net profit (attributable to shareholders): 62 million yuan (2023), 93 million yuan (2024), 126 million yuan (2025), 166 million yuan (2026), and 213 million yuan (2027) [4][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: 0.09 yuan (2023), 0.14 yuan (2024), 0.19 yuan (2025), 0.24 yuan (2026), and 0.31 yuan (2027) [4][11]. Market Data - The company's stock price has ranged between 7.01 yuan and 16.02 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 7,749 million yuan [5][10]. - The company has a total share capital of 678 million shares, with 423 million shares in circulation [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of 13.96 yuan based on a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 75 times for 2025 [10][12]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 125.43 in 2023 to 36.41 in 2027 [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, which is expected to positively impact China's economic growth and reduce the need for aggressive policy easing [1][2][4]. Trade Relations - The US has agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the effective tariff rate from approximately 107% to around 39%, while China will lower its effective tariff rate from 144% to about 30% [1][2]. - The reduction in tariffs exceeds market expectations, indicating a lesser drag on China's economic growth than previously predicted [2]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - China's export growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from -5% to 0%, with net exports now expected to contribute +0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, up from a previous estimate of -0.5 percentage points [4]. - The anticipated policy easing has been adjusted downward, with expectations for further monetary policy easing in the form of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [4][5]. GDP Growth Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised from 4.0% and 3.5% to 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively, due to the improved trade outlook [5][6]. Policy Response - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market confidence, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5% [7]. - The approach to fiscal policy has become more conservative, with a focus on targeted measures rather than broad-based fiscal stimulus [8][9]. Manufacturing Sector Focus - Despite calls for a shift towards consumer-driven growth, the Chinese government continues to prioritize the development of the manufacturing sector, viewing it as a key driver of economic growth [10][11]. - China's manufacturing sector remains robust, with significant global market share and competitive advantages in production costs [11]. Economic Rebalancing - The long-term direction for China's economy is to shift towards domestic demand and household consumption, with potential reforms aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social security systems [12][13].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

文字早评 2025/06/17 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.35%，创指+0.66%，科创 50-0.21%，北证 50+1.84%，上证 50+0.32%，沪深 300+0.25%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.68%，中证 2000+1.07%，万得微盘+1.38%。两市合计成交 12151 亿，较上 一日-2521 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、5 月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，环比增长 0.61%。1-5 月全国固定资产投资增长 3.7%； 社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，比上月加快 1.3 个百分点；环比增长 0.93%。 2、5 月各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线城市环比降幅扩大至 0.7%，二、三线城市环比降幅均扩 大至 0.5%；各线二手房价同比降幅继续收窄，商品房待售面积连续三个月减少。 3、2025 陆家嘴论坛将于 6 月 18 日至 6 月 19 日召开，论坛期间中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融 政策，有望呵护股市风险偏好。 4、特朗普表示，他认为以色列与伊朗"有很大可能"达成协议，但也称"有时候他们需要打一仗" ...