Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. is located at 9th Floor, ProLogis Building, No. 2389 Zhangyang Road, Pudong New District, Shanghai, established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products and materials, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.084 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.51% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 6.562 billion yuan, with 3.463 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 5, Tianshan Aluminum's stock price increased by 2.04%, reaching 10.52 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 48.938 billion yuan [1] - The stock has risen 37.12% year-to-date, with a 4.26% increase over the last five trading days, 8.68% over the last twenty days, and 26.29% over the last sixty days [1] - The number of shareholders as of June 30 was 49,700, an increase of 4.44% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 4.25% to 83,175 shares [2] Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 113 million shares, a decrease of 10.084 million shares from the previous period [3] - The main business revenue composition includes 65.26% from the sale of self-produced aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina sales, 6.89% from aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, and 1.55% from other sources [1] Market Position - Tianshan Aluminum is classified under the Shenwan industry as non-ferrous metals - industrial metals - aluminum, and is associated with concepts such as battery foil, non-ferrous aluminum, lithium batteries, social security heavy positions, and Xinjiang revitalization [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates a positive outlook for the electrolytic aluminum sector in the second half of the year, driven by low valuations and expectations of profit expansion [1] Valuation and Profitability - The current valuation of the electrolytic aluminum sector is considered low [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tight, supporting an upward trend in aluminum prices, while the supply of alumina is relatively loose [1] - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum segment is expected to expand to over 4,500 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [1] Market Outlook - With expectations of both valuation and profitability improvements, the sector's stock performance is anticipated to be strong in the latter half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, with a current market capitalization of 42.175 billion yuan, while its year-to-date stock price has increased by 14.31% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion yuan [2] Shareholder Information - As of August 29, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was 65,400, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous period, with an average of 34,367 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.14% [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 9.422 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth largest circulating shareholder, holding 39.0549 million shares, a decrease of 19.7381 million shares from the previous period, while Southern CSI 500 ETF was a new sixth largest shareholder with 23.3743 million shares [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report - Authors: Xu Liang, Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September (with a probability of nearly 90%), geopolitical tensions, and Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor have triggered a crisis of confidence in US dollar assets, boosting safe - haven demand. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and the de - dollarization trend provide long - term support for gold prices. The market is focused on tomorrow's US non - farm payroll data for guidance on the rate - cut path [3] Specific Data and Information - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related charts are presented, including price trends, COMEX gold prices, and gold - silver ratios [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings and silver long - term fund holdings are also shown [11][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are provided [6][13] Group 3: Copper Core View - Overseas copper mine disruptions have led to a decline in domestic spot processing fees. Tight resources are reflected in the decline of LME copper inventory and high domestic spot premiums. The Yangshan copper premium has climbed to $55/ton, indicating strong import demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in China has boosted refined copper consumption expectations. Although downstream restocking has promoted transactions, traders' high - price aversion has suppressed trading activity [16] Specific Data and Information - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.56% [17][22] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap price differences are also presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and inventory data, such as SHFE copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory, are given [32][34] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, and domestic policies are also gradually taking effect, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. Although there are some production and transportation controls during the September parade, the demand in the peak season shows signs of recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it needs to meet the peak - season expectations to break through the 21,000 resistance level [36] - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite may face greater volatility in the future. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with high domestic operating capacity and expected oversupply in the second half of the year. Although some alumina plants in Henan have received environmental protection production - limit notices, the impact is mainly short - term [37] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax rebates for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in production capacity utilization, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [38] Specific Data and Information - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.05% [39] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and inventory data, such as warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [43][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply of zinc is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore price has an advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large. Overseas zinc ore supply is abundant, but overseas refined zinc production has limited growth. The demand is relatively stable and may improve during the "Golden September and Silver October." The LME inventory has continued to decline, and the zinc price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [61] Specific Data and Information - Zinc futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,285 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.18% [62] - Zinc inventory data, such as SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory, are given [71] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The first - phase benchmark price of nickel in Indonesia in September shows that nickel ore prices are basically stable with a slight decline, and other nickel products are also stable. The MHP benchmark price has increased due to demand. Nickel iron prices are relatively firm, stainless steel prices are strong, and the demand for the peak season in September and October is warming up. Sulfate nickel prices are stable, and the impact of the riots in Indonesia on production has subsided [74] Specific Data and Information - Nickel futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1% [75] - Nickel spot prices, downstream profit data, and nickel ore price and inventory data are presented [79][81][83] Group 7: Tin Core View - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to the tight supply. Yunnan Tin's planned 45 - day maintenance starting from August 30 and the decline in refined tin production in August 2025 have contributed to this. In the short term, tin prices still have upward momentum due to the tight supply [88] Specific Data and Information - Tin futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE tin main contract is 273,120 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 860 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.31% [89][95] - Tin inventory data, such as SHFE tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory, are given [99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment stage. The supply side has no new news, and the demand side has a marginal improvement expectation, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress short - term futures prices. The market trend depends on the actual downstream receiving situation [105] Specific Data and Information - Lithium carbonate futures prices, including daily and weekly changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 71,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7,500 yuan [106] - Lithium spot prices, including prices of lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, are presented [110] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, such as Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [113] Group 9: Silicon Industry Chain Core View - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, it is in a narrow - range shock, and the shock range is expected to narrow further. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in power costs during the dry season will support prices [116] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a clear box - shock range. There is no strong driver to break the shock pattern for now, and it is necessary to track volume changes and breakthrough signals. The market is sensitive to news and may experience significant price fluctuations [116] Specific Data and Information - Industrial silicon spot prices, including prices at different ports and grades, are provided [117] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, price differences, and related inventory and production data are presented [118][131][134]

Core Viewpoint - The independent financial advisors have provided a response to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the review inquiry letter for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Holdings Co., Ltd.'s application for asset acquisition through share issuance, indicating that the company's sustainable operation capability is not expected to undergo significant adverse changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China has strict capacity control, with no new capacity registrations since 2017, leading to a near supply-demand balance with a production capacity of 44.62 million tons per year as of 2024 [2][4]. - The global alumina production is projected to reach 146 million tons in 2024, with China's alumina production at 85.81 million tons, indicating a stable demand primarily driven by electrolytic aluminum smelting [2][6]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to grow, with consumption reaching 45.18 million tons in 2024, accounting for 62.2% of global consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Company Position and Competitive Landscape - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum is a leading enterprise in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a production capacity of 6.459 million tons, representing 14.48% of the domestic total, and ranks second in the industry [11][12]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten companies accounting for 72% of the total capacity, which helps maintain a stable market structure [11][12]. - The company benefits from significant advantages in technology, cost, and market position, ensuring its competitive edge in the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Capacity Transfer and Future Plans - The company plans to transfer 3.96 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with 1.488 million tons already completed by the end of 2024 [18][20]. - The capacity transfer aligns with national policies promoting sustainable development and is expected to enhance the company's profitability and operational sustainability [19][20]. - The company has established a clear plan for capacity transfer from 2025 to 2027, with specific targets for each year [22]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Asset Management - The company has adequately provided for fixed asset impairment, with a total impairment provision of 3.484 billion yuan as of the end of 2024, primarily due to expected shutdowns related to capacity transfer [22]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio between 3.08 and 5.85, indicating robust debt repayment capabilities [21]. - The overall financial health is supported by a significant amount of current assets, ensuring that the company can meet its obligations without major risks [21].

格隆汇9月3日丨神火股份(000933.SZ)公布，截至2025年8月31日，公司通过股票回购专用证券账户以集 中竞价交易方式累计回购公司股份15,420,360股，占公司目前总股本的0.686%；其中，最高成交价为 17.00元/股，最低成交价为15.93元/股，成交总金额为254,978,767.92元（不含交易费用）。本次回购股 份资金来源为公司自有资金，回购价格未超过回购方案中拟定的价格上限。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Circuit Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, leading to potential implications for U.S. trade policy and negotiations [1][3] - The ruling may undermine the credibility of previous trade agreements made by the U.S. with various countries, as they lacked legislative backing and could be viewed as mere "paper commitments" [3] - The decision could open alternative policy channels, allowing lobbying groups in industries like steel and aluminum to push for non-tariff barriers such as anti-dumping measures and national security reviews [3] Group 2 - The ruling has significant implications for U.S. national security strategy, as it may shift the administration's focus towards multilateral approaches and "rules-based" strategies in trade, particularly in areas like digital trade and supply chain standards [4] - The decision may also impact India's trade dynamics, as it could lead to reduced export costs for Indian goods, but simultaneously expose India to potential trade relief measures from the U.S. [6] - The deepening energy ties between India and Russia, highlighted by Modi and Putin's discussions, may complicate India's position as it navigates U.S. pressures while seeking to maintain strategic autonomy [6][8] Group 3 - The interactions between Modi and Putin symbolize a strong trust and strategic partnership, which India is leveraging to secure energy supplies and enhance its bargaining power amid U.S. pressures [8] - The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that as the U.S. ties trade to national security, India's ability to balance relations with both Russia and the U.S. will become increasingly challenging [8] - The recent court ruling, along with political statements from U.S. officials, indicates a broader reconfiguration of power and partnerships in the global trade environment [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre