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能源化工期权策略早报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:50
能源化工期权 2025-08-22 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号:F03090207 | 交易咨询号:Z0016947 | 邮箱:lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要:能源类:原油、LPG;聚烯烃类期权:聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯;聚酯类期 权:对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片;碱化工类:烧碱、纯碱;其他能源化工类:橡胶等。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
贵金属早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:26
贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/22 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3344.65 | 37.08 | 1347.00 | 1127.00 | 62.71 | 9699.00 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -11.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 98.24 | 1.17 | 1.35 | 147.31 | 1.94 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 00:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]
“万亿用电+万亿成交”双破纪录背后的中国经济新韧性 -20250822
申银万国期货研究· 2025-08-22 00:33
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, evidenced by record electricity consumption and trading volumes in the stock market, indicating a positive economic outlook and effective policy measures [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The A-share market indices have shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively year-to-date [1]. - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase and doubling compared to ten years ago [1][7]. - China's foreign trade maintained a steady growth trajectory, with total import and export value reaching 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has initiated pilot green foreign debt projects in 16 provinces and cities, encouraging non-financial enterprises to use cross-border financing for green or low-carbon transformation projects [1]. - The government is expected to introduce more incremental policies in the second half of the year to boost the real economy, as the domestic liquidity remains accommodative [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market is currently in a phase characterized by a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10]. - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have led the market gains, while the machinery and equipment sector has lagged [2]. Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - The significant increase in electricity consumption is paralleled by a strong performance in the energy sector, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power rapidly increasing their share, accounting for nearly a quarter of total consumption [1][7]. - The article notes the impact of external factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and trade negotiations, on market dynamics and investor sentiment [3][4].
国投安粮期货:国内经济增长稳中有进,流动性环境宽松,央行明确消费贷贴息、育儿补贴等扩内需
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:15
宏观 宏观:国内经济增长稳中有进,流动性环境宽松,央行明确消费贷贴息、育儿补贴等扩内需 政策落地,叠加反内卷政策推动部分行业供给收缩,企业盈利预期修复。 市场分析:价格方面,中小盘领涨,大盘蓝筹跟涨,金融权重拖累,成长风格占优。基差方 面,近月合约普遍升水,远月合约基差扩大。 参考观点:关注短期关键压力位波动风险,可通过看跌期权或看涨期权构建备兑交易,抵御 价格波动风险。 原油 宏观与地缘:市场炒作美联储 9 月降息,同时美元指数从 100 压力位下探,给原油一定托底 作用。但市场担忧美国夏季需求情况,同时 OPEC+9月会议或加速增产。关注美俄谈判进 展,或一定程度上解除之前市场对俄罗斯原油供给方面的担忧。 市场分析:三大机构月报陆续放出供给大幅增加的预期,IEA 预测供给增量将三倍大于需求 增量,美国页岩油产量仍有增加潜力,同时 OEPC+已经明确增产信号,后市需要关注 OPEC+9 月会议是否加大增产力度。同时,美国为代表的非 OEPC 产油国整体增产,原油市场供给相 对充裕。另一方面,原油需求端面临较大不确定性,美国关税谈判进展情况或对全球经济带 来较大的重塑影响,需密切关注全球经贸活动的变化,以及美 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250821
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].
能源化工期权策略早报-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:10
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated August 21, 2025 [2] - It covers various energy and chemical option varieties, including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and others [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple energy and chemical futures contracts [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are provided, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental analysis shows that OPEC+ will increase supply in September, and Russia will cut production. The market is in a short - term recovery with resistance. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: The supply is abundant, and the market is short - term bearish. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing, and the market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is expected to accumulate, and the market is in a weak and wide - range oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a volatility - selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The PE inventory is decreasing, while the PP inventory has different trends. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The tire production has different trends in operating rates. The market is short - term weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy [12] Polyester Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is in a weak consolidation. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy [13] Alkali Chemical Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production capacity utilization rate has changed, and the market is in a short - term bullish recovery. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is in an oscillatory state. Option strategies include constructing a volatility - selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Other Options - **Urea**: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] Group 7: Option Charts - The report includes price charts, trading volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts of various option varieties such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [17][35][54]
宝城期货原油早报-20250821
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias. This is due to the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, despite the expected record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.95% to 486.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend on Thursday [5].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:06
能源化工日报 2025-08-21 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/21 原油早评 行情方面:WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.63 美元,涨幅 1.01%,报 63.14 美元;布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 1.09 美元,涨幅 1.65%,报 67.04 美元;INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.00 元,跌幅 0.21%, 报 475.9 元。 数据方面:美国 EIA 周度数据出炉,美国原油商业库存去库 6.01 百万桶至 420.68 百万桶, 环比去库 1.41%;SPR 补库 0.22 百万桶至 403.43 百万桶,环比补库 0.06%;汽油库存去库 2.72 百万桶至 223.57 百万桶,环比去库 1.20%;柴油库存累库 2.34 百万桶至 116.03 百万桶,环 比累库 2.06%;燃料油库存累库 0.08 百万桶至 19.81 百万桶,环比累库 0.39%;航空煤油库 存去库 0.45 百万桶至 43.30 百万桶,环比去库 1.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号:F03097315 交易咨询号:Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地 ...
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数下跌,黑色系领跌-20250821
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 00:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].