Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in gold and silver prices, alongside the performance of U.S. stock indices, amidst concerns over government shutdown and economic data release delays [2][12]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling below $3820 per ounce after reaching a high of $3896 per ounce, marking a drop of approximately $80 [2]. - Silver also saw a significant decrease, with prices dropping over 2% to $46 per ounce after previously exceeding $48 per ounce [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices mirrored the volatility in gold prices, with the S&P 500 index opening at a record high before turning negative [5]. - The Dow Jones index was reported at 46344.94, down 96.16 points or 0.21% [6]. - The Nasdaq Composite index showed a slight increase of 0.07%, reaching 22770.08 [9]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns, with potential layoffs being discussed by the Trump administration, impacting market sentiment [12]. - The shutdown has led to a "data blackout," affecting the release of key economic indicators such as the non-farm payroll report [12]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may announce a rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut priced in for the end of the month [16].

当地时间周三，美国联邦政府近七年来首次陷入停摆状态，部分机构已停止运行。不过目前投资者认为本次停摆将是短期事件，对美国经济的伤害不会太 大。 美国9月私营部门就业人数不及预期 强化美联储年内降息预期 另一方面，此前一天，美国总统特朗普称与辉瑞达成协议，辉瑞将自愿降低其药品在美国的售价。投资者认为，此举有助于辉瑞规避更严格的药品定价政 策和关税威胁，同时利好医药行业。大型医药企业股价普遍上涨，辉瑞收涨近6.8%。 乐观情绪带动美国三大股指集体收涨，标普500指数创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，道指微涨0.09%，标普500指数上涨0.34%，纳指上涨0.42%。 美国制造业活动 连续第七个月收缩 经济数据面上，美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三公布的数据显示，美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1，连续第七个月处于收缩区间，当月新订单数回落， 11个行业的制造活动出现萎缩。 同一天，根据美国自动数据处理公司ADP公布的数据，经季节性调整后，9月份美国私营部门就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来的最大降幅，与此 同时，8月份的数据也被大幅下调。由于美国政府停摆，本周五的非农就业报告可能无法如期发布，这份私营部门就 ...

| BNB | 1027 | +2.4% | | --- | --- | --- | | $18.1亿 -2.7% | | | | SUI | 3.446 | +7.53% | | $17.7亿 +6.0% | | | 根据Coinglass数据，近24小时全球共有超过16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额达6.24亿美元。 欧美股市、加密货币全线大涨，超16万人爆仓 昨日，美股三大股指集体低开，但盘中均转涨。截至今晨收盘，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.09%，纳指涨0.42%，标普500指数涨0.34%，标普和道 指齐创新高。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.44%，热门中概股普遍上涨，百度、世纪互联涨超4%，京东涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨超2%，哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车 涨超1%。 欧洲主要股指收盘普涨，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.99%，英国富时100指数涨1.05%，德国DAX30指数涨1.08%，法国CAC40指数涨0.9%。 加密货币全线大涨，比特币涨3.7%。以太坊站上4300美元/枚，日内涨超4%。 | BTC | 117135 | +3.7% | | --- | --- | --- | | $848.6亿 +5.9% | ...

每经记者｜高涵 每经编辑｜段炼 谢欣 潘海福 ① 【三大期指齐跌】道指期货跌0.57%、标普500指数期货跌0.63%、纳指期货跌0.73%。 ⑨【宝马因发动机启动器问题在美召回逾14.5万辆汽车】美国国家公路交通安全管理局周三表示，宝马将在美国召回逾14.5万辆汽车，原因是发动机启动 器过热可能会增加起火风险。该机构表示，这一问题影响到2020款宝马340I、X7和X5车型。 ⑩ 北京时间20:15，美国发布9月ADP就业人数变动；北京时间22:00，美国发布9月ISM制造业指数。 （声明：文章内容 和数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 记者|高涵 ② 【明星科技股多数走低】美股盘前，明星科技股多数走低，英伟达、AMD等均下跌。 ③ 【Lithium Americas涨超32%，美国政府将收购其5%股权】加拿大矿业巨头美洲锂业（Lithium Americas）盘前大涨超32%，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特 称，美国政府将收购Lithium Americas 5%的股权。 ④ 【耐克季度营收超预期，盘前涨3%】耐克盘前上涨3%，此前公司第一季度收入增长超市场预期。 ⑤ 【COMEX黄金期 ...

程强系德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 PART.01 市场概览 2025年9月30日周二，A股市场震荡分化上行，科技股维持强势；30年期国债期货新低后反弹收涨；期货 分化明显，黄金领涨，焦煤领跌。 PART.02 市场行情分析 1）股票市场：三季度收官，创业科创均涨约50% 市场震荡上行。今日作为国庆中秋双节前最后一个交易日，A股市场呈现分化上行格局。上证指数收涨 0.52%，报3882.78点；创业板指收平、科创50收涨1.69%，二者盘中均再创年内新高。全市场成交额约 2.20万亿，较前一交易日略有放量，但较9月25日（2.39万亿）、23日（2.52万亿）等近期高位有所回 落，显示节前部分资金趋于谨慎，兑现获利需求显现。从月度情况看，9月成交额整体维持在2万亿元以 上，市场流动性充裕，支撑结构性行情展开。 节前最后一日，风格有所分化。今日成长板块延续强势，金融等防御性板块表现承压，半导体（存储芯 片涨价催化）、锂电设备（固态电池产业化提速）等表现突出，反映资金对科技成长赛道的持续关注； 周期板块方面，美联储降息后金、铜商品价格均表现强势，且9月PMI回升至49.8%创近6个月 ...

贵金属走势偏弱。截至发稿，国际现货黄金、现货白银跌幅分别为0.22%、1.69%，现货铂金、现货钯金均跌超2.5%。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 伦敦金现 | 3824.4 | -8.500 | -0.22% | | 伦敦银现 | 46.138 | -0.792 | -1.69% | | COMEX黄金 | 3850.0d | -5.2 | -0.13% | | COMEX白银 | 46.260d -0.756 | | -1.61% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 875.35 | -2.325% | -0.26% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 10560. | -183.5. | -1.71% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 1556.9 | -40.52 | -2.54% | | 现货锂金(美元/盎司) | 1238.1 | -32.36 | -2.55% | 9月30日晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，中概股逆势普涨。截至发稿，万得中概科技龙头指数涨超1%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨幅为0.84% ...

国际原油期货大跌。布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货一度均跌超2%，截至发稿跌幅有所收窄。消息面 上，OPEC+将讨论在未来三个月里每月增加50万桶/日的产量。 责编：陈丽湘 校对：彭其华 贵金属走势偏弱。截至发稿，国际现货黄金、现货白银跌幅分别为0.22%、1.69%，现货铂金、现货钯 金均跌超2.5%。 9月30日晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，中概股逆势普涨。截至发稿，万得中概科技龙头指数涨超1%， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨幅为0.84%。 新能源车涨幅居前，蔚来涨超6%，理想汽车涨超4%，极氪涨超3%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract presented a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and slightly falling. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the geopolitical risks in the Middle East significantly cooling down, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The storage and delivery rates of warehouses changed [8]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of full - steel tire sample enterprises increased [8]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, and the weekly output was 187.27 million tons [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, and the futures profit of methanol to olefin decreased [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 126.81 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 32 million tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, and the daily crude oil output was 1.3501 billion barrels [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 415 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.561 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 93.9% [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,030 yuan/ton | - 345 yuan/ton | - 480 yuan/ton | + 345 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,328 yuan/ton | - 31 yuan/ton | - 53 yuan/ton | + 31 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 473.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.8 yuan/barrel | - 6.1 yuan/barrel | + 10.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][36]. - Crude - oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46].

Group 1: Gold Market - The meeting between Trump and congressional leaders on September 29 raises concerns about a potential government shutdown, with over 60% probability if no agreement is reached by September 30, which could lead to a data vacuum and increased investment in gold as a safe haven [2] - The PCE price index released on the previous Friday met market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October, which is a key driver for the continuous rise in gold prices [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihao believes that the rate cut cycle supports the ongoing increase in gold prices, alongside heightened risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown, leading to new historical highs for gold [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although current production is nearly 500,000 barrels per day below targets, indicating a risk of oversupply in the market [2] - The IEA warns of a potential oversupply in global oil markets before 2026, with OPEC+ focusing on market share rather than price management due to ongoing production increases [3] - The resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq after a two-year pause may further ease supply constraints, contributing to a more pronounced short-term volatility in the oil market [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal funds are set to run out on October 1, raising the risk of a government shutdown [5] - The European Central Bank may need to adjust its policy stance due to weak economic growth, as indicated by comments from ECB President Lagarde [3] - Upcoming key economic data includes the Chicago PMI and JOLTs job openings, which could influence market sentiment [10]

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]