来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪锌唯一下跌，跌幅达0.04%。沪锡以7.62%的涨幅领涨，沪镍 涨2.32%。其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨0.77%，铸造铝主连涨1.25%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨3.4%，工业硅主连涨0.3%，多晶硅主连跌0.76%。欧线集运主连跌4.76%报 1278.6。 黑色系方面集体飘红，且涨幅均在1%以上，铁矿涨1.42%，不锈钢涨1.24%，螺纹钢涨1.72%，热卷涨 1.19%。双焦方面，焦煤、焦炭均涨2.32%。 外盘方面，截至15:04分，外盘基本金属普涨，伦锡以5.27%的涨幅领涨外盘基本金属，伦镍涨1%。其 余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 【上海市住房城乡建设管理委等五部门印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》 】据上海 住房城乡建设管理公众号消息：为更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发 展，2月25日，市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中心等五 部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2026年2月26 日起施行。一、进一步调减住房 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，原油市场当前脱离供需，转为地缘政治风险驱动。预计未来 一个月内价格的高波动率将不可避免。在美伊局势尚未明朗化前，原油价格处于易涨难跌的状态。短期 原油价格如因地缘问题继续上行，建议关注拥有油气资源的上游企业以及长期受益于行业高景气度的海 上油气服务工程板块。另一方面，油价上涨可能带动化工品涨价预期，而如果地缘风险溢价回落则行业 成本压力下降，考虑到国内未来产业反内卷的政策方向，有利于化工产业的长期格局优化及高质量发 展。 国金证券主要观点如下： 美伊战争风险快速上升，原油地缘风险溢价急速上升 2月18日以来由于海外市场对于美国与伊朗开战的预期快速上升，原油市场担忧已经进入战争倒计时阶 段因而地缘风险溢价快速上升。Polymarket网站押注美国将于3月31日前袭击伊朗的概率自17日的38%升 至18日的48%，并于19日升至65%。19日据CBS新闻援引知情人士透露，美国高级国家安全官员已告知 特朗普，军方最快可能于周六对伊朗发动打击。20日报道称，特朗普正权衡对伊朗进行初步、有限的军 事打击，以迫使其达成核协议。 2月22日新闻报道，如果美国谈判代表在未来48小时内收 ...

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： | | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 日内方向 | | | | | 5201 阻力 | | 521 7 | 5228 | | 支撑 5163 | | ਟੀਥੇਟ | STS3 | | 动能 | 动力强（实时变化）全品种量化周期大于３年，参考价值≥67.1% | | | 1. ADP数据显示，过去一周美国民间就业新增12.8万人，高于前值。此外，美国2月消费者信心指数为 91.2，优于市场预期。 2. 据彭博社报道，波士顿联储主席柯林斯周二表示，鉴于近期经济数据表明劳动力市场有所改善，但通 胀风险仍在，利率"可能在一段时间内维持不变"。 3. 美国总统特朗普将于当地时间2月24日晚间9点左右在国会山向两院议员发表2026年度国情咨文，这是 2026年中期选举前的一次重要政治演讲。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 在金价触及数周高位后，交易员开始获利了结，令黄金承压走低。此外，美联储官员偏鹰派的言论支撑 了美元，并拖累以美元计价的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with precious metals leading the gains [1]. - Domestic macroeconomic situation shows a differentiated performance during the Spring Festival, with strong travel and consumption but weak real - estate sales. The start of social financing in January was stable, with government financing being strong and private financing in line with expectations [13]. - Overseas, the US economy shows a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed down significantly, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [13]. - In the short - term, overseas economy may suppress base metals, but copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel with tight supply are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Tariff disturbances may support the prices of gold and silver. A - shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, while crude oil, black commodities, and the domestic bond market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 24, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4683.4, with a daily increase of 1.06%, a weekly increase of 1.22%, a monthly decrease of 0.59%, a quarterly increase of 1.82%, and an annual increase of 1.82%. Other stock index futures also had different degrees of fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had certain price increases and fluctuations in different time periods [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.7425, with a monthly increase of 0.65% and an annual decrease of 0.54%. The US dollar middle - price had a significant decline [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 24, 2026, industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily and quarterly increases, while industries such as consumer services, computer, and non - bank finance had declines [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 23, 2026, precious metals such as COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, while energy products such as NYMEX natural gas had significant declines [8]. 3.4 Fluctuations of Domestic Commodities - On February 24, 2026, products such as crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and silver had relatively large daily increases, while products such as iron ore, coke, and coking coal had declines [11]. 3.5 Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, but real - estate sales were weak. Social financing in January started stably, with government financing being strong and private financing in line with expectations [13]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed down, and inflation stickiness still exists [13]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Short - term overseas economy may suppress base metals, but copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel with tight supply are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Tariff disturbances may support the prices of gold and silver. A - shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, while crude oil, black commodities, and the domestic bond market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [13]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: After the Spring Festival, stocks and bonds both rose. Stock index futures are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to oscillate [14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner due to positive impacts of tariff policy changes [14]. - **Shipping**: The spot price of container shipping to Europe is expected to oscillate, and steel and iron ore prices are also expected to oscillate [14]. - **Black Building Materials**: The real - world situation and expectations are not good, and the prices of products such as coke, coking coal, and glass are expected to oscillate [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Base metals are expected to oscillate and sort out. Products such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner [14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to the tense relationship between the US and Iran, oil prices are boosted. Products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Agriculture**: After the Spring Festival, most agricultural products rose on the first day. Products such as natural rubber, cotton, and corn are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner, while products such as pigs and sugar are expected to be weaker in an oscillating manner [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 品种晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-25 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险扰动，原油震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节后归来，国内原油期货 2604 合约大幅收涨 6.18%至 493.3 元/桶。核心由地缘风险溢价、 供应紧平衡、国内复工需求三重驱动共振。中东局势的反复成为油价波动的核心变量。春节期间 ...

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5191.40 with a change of 196.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 86.94 with a change of 9.59 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 2058.00 with a change of -51.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 66.31 with a change of 3.42 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13061.50 with a change of 167.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.74 with a change of 0.88 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.18 with a change of -0.01 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.35 with a change of -0.02 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 154.67 with a change of 1.97 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.77 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's value is 11321.76 with a change of -386.68 [1] - SHFE Silver's value is 349.88 with a change of -3.68 [1] - Gold ETF's value is 1086.47 with a change of 0.00 [1] - Silver ETF's value is 15830.38 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver's value is 493.67 with a change of 9.44 [1] - SGE Gold's value is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - Another SGE Silver's value is 2 with a change not clearly presented [1]

能源化工日报 2026-02-25 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/02/25 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 28.70 元/桶，涨幅 6.18%，报 493.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 79.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.76%，报 2942.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 192.00 元/吨，涨 | | 橡胶分析师 | 幅 5.84%，报 3478.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 【策略观点】 | |  0755-233753333 | 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 | | zhangzh@wkqh.cn  | 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 | | | 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以中期布局为主要操作思路，但需等待地缘终点爆发以排除尾部 | | 徐绍祖 | 风险。 | | 聚烯烃分析师 | | | 从业资格号 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, strong operation, and a significant rise. The closing price increased by 3.90% to 17,030 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 200 yuan/ton. The rubber market has re - entered a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, volatile and upward - biased, and a significant rise. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,297 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,222 yuan/ton, and the closing price increased by 3.02% to 2,285 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have enhanced the methanol premium, driving the methanol price to stabilize and strengthen. It is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, gapping up, and strong operation. The futures price reached a maximum of 495.0 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 484.3 yuan/barrel, and the closing price increased by 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated again, the crude oil premium has significantly increased. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a high - level and upward - biased posture in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. Bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, most tire enterprises shut down, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, and both decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% month - on - month respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the LPI was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points but still in the expansion range. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in January, a significant year - on - year increase of about 39%, and it is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.68%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.50%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.11%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,300 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week and 1.62% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 43,600 tons. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,300 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 969,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a slight week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change in Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +700 yuan/ton | 17,030 yuan/ton | +715 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | +98 yuan/ton | 2,285 yuan/ton | +97 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.1 yuan/barrel | +23.4 yuan/barrel | 493.3 yuan/barrel | +32.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.2 yuan/barrel | - 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as the rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][23]. - **Methanol**: The report contains charts of the methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The report has charts of the crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][48][50].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、行情走势回顾 春节前一周甲醇期货弱势震荡，中东地缘冲突缓和，市场重回基本面交易，节前下游企业逐步停工放 假，需求端收缩预期升温，叠加港口库存高位运行，市场抛压释放，价格弱势震荡，节前最后一个交易 日，市场避险情绪升温，多头大幅减仓，主力2605合约收于2188元/吨，创1月下旬以来新低。假期美伊 军事对峙升级，一方面伊朗为主要甲醇出口国，其局势动荡直接推升了甲醇市场的风险偏好，另一方 面，假期原油受同样驱动影响大幅上涨，对油系化工品形成支撑，进而向上传导至甲醇，受此影响，节 后首日甲醇期货高开高走，早盘涨超3%，收复节前一周跌幅。 现货市场表现相对平稳，节前一周市场交投较为冷清，港口市场价格波动有限，内地厂家在完成节前降 价去库后报价坚挺，其中西北地区市场价明显回升。节后沿海港口价格随盘反弹，市场交投尚未完全恢 复。 二、供给端：国内供应大幅增加，海外装置开工率维持低位 国内供应维持高位。1月国内甲醇产量达900.24万吨，较上年12月减少6.68万吨，当仍处近年第二高位， 进入2月后甲醇装置产能利用率再次攀升至90%以上，预计本月甲醇月产 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：随着美国在中东地区部署完军力，以色列威胁对伊朗展开最严厉的军事打击，美伊矛盾 升级或在短期内诱发新一轮地缘冲突。虽然短期双方进行谈判，但美伊之间分歧较大，地缘风险隐 患仍存。OPEC+在月初宣布 ...