Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration in sector rotation within the A-share market indicates a shift in investment strategies, with previously underperforming sectors like liquor and real estate gaining traction while high-performing sectors like technology and new energy are experiencing corrections [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent ETF redemption wave has largely ended, signaling a potential recovery window for large-cap stocks as funds shift from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality styles [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a structural adjustment, with high turnover rates leading to increased volatility, particularly in sectors like metals, which have seen significant trading volume [2][11]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the underlying fundamentals supporting the spring market rally remain intact, driven by domestic economic improvements and favorable policies [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The performance of cyclical sectors is strong, supported by a recovery in profit margins, as China's policy focus shifts from expansion to quality enhancement [1]. - The liquor and real estate sectors have shown notable performance, reflecting a convergence in market structure as the spring rally progresses into its latter stages [8]. - The AI sector continues to be a focal point for growth, with expectations of significant earnings improvements, while traditional sectors like chemicals and power equipment remain solid investment choices [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to continue the spring market rally, with structural opportunities emerging from macroeconomic catalysts and corporate earnings forecasts [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a stable upward trajectory supported by robust liquidity and favorable seasonal trends [4][6]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a balanced performance across various sectors, with an emphasis on both growth and value opportunities as the market evolves [8].

Market Performance - A-share market indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.62%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.58% and the SSE 50 Index increased by 1.13% [1] ETF Trends - Resource and technology sector ETFs have attracted significant capital recently, with the Brazil ETF leading the weekly gains at 22.5%, driven by the strong performance of the IBOVESPA index and key stocks like Vale and Petrobras benefiting from rising commodity prices [1] - The Brazil ETF currently has a premium rate of 15.04% [1] ETF Performance Rankings - The top-performing ETFs this week include: - Hotel F ETF: 22.50% - South Korea Semiconductor ETF: 17.14% - Brazil ETF: 12.55% - Gold Stocks ETF: 9.41% - Oil and Gas ETFs: around 7% [2][3] Fund Flows - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 300 billion yuan this week, with broad-based ETFs seeing a net outflow of approximately 390 billion yuan, while industry ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of 68.55 billion yuan and commodity ETFs saw a net inflow of 24.36 billion yuan [3] Upcoming ETF Issuances - Four new ETFs are set to be issued next week, including: - Battery ETF by E Fund - Dividend Quality ETF by E Fund - Industrial Nonferrous ETF by Bosera - Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF by GF Fund [4][5]

证券研究报告 固收 "看股或商品做债"为何不灵了？ 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 欧阳琳* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 利率周报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 SFC No. BXH064 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com 朱逸敏* 联系人 +(86) 10 6321 1166 报告核心观点 近日，传统"看股或商品做债"策略失效，背后源于两大力量交织：一是大 宗商品价格剧烈波动，其通胀效应与经济影响背离，对债市压制有限；二是 ...

Core Insights - Brazilian ETFs led the market this week with a remarkable weekly increase of 22.5%, primarily driven by the historical high of the IBOVESPA index and strong performances from key constituents [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Brazilian ETF achieved a weekly growth of 22.5%, ranking first among ETFs [1] - The IBOVESPA index reached a historical high at the end of January, contributing to the ETF's performance [1] - Key stocks such as Vale and Petrobras showed strong performance, positively influenced by rising commodity prices [1] Group 2: Other Notable ETFs - ETFs related to semiconductor industries in China and South Korea, gold stocks, oil and gas, energy, and AI on the STAR Market also performed well, ranking among the top gainers [1]

康波萧条期的资源繁荣 - 百年变局与资源价格 20260128 全球商品定价受金融和实物属性双重影响，美元主导金融属性，中国需 求主导实物属性，贱金属受实物供需驱动，贵金属受金融属性驱动，基 本金属兼具两者。 当前仍处于康波萧条期，AI 技术虽发展迅速但未广泛应用于工业领域， 难以构成新一轮康波回升，历次康波回升均伴随硬件革命，创造新需求 和就业。 中美贸易战并未改变全球贸易格局，仅导致贸易流向转移，关税措施无 法解决根本问题，只会促使供应链调整，如中国经东盟间接出口至美国， 美墨贸易增加。 中国正处于工业化成熟期，类似于 1976 年日本或 1,938 年美国，高端 制造业竞争力提升，低端劳动密集型产业外移，但仍具备较强发展潜力。 美国再工业化难以实现，制造业占国民经济比重持续下降，财政赤字与 贸易赤字存在孪生关系，削减贸易赤字需先削减财政赤字，但受内部结 构性问题制约。 Q&A 如何理解商品的金融属性和实物属性，以及它们在定价中的作用？ 商品的定价具有两个主要属性：金融属性和实物属性。实物属性指的是供应和 需求形成的产出缺口，而金融属性则涉及到计价货币的影响。在大宗商品市场 中，计价货币通常是美元，因此美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the strengthening of the euro against the dollar is becoming a focal point as investors seek to diversify their asset allocation away from the US, which may cast a shadow over European stock markets [1] - Citigroup strategists indicate that the ongoing appreciation of the euro will reinforce a neutral outlook on European equities due to recent transatlantic tensions and tariff uncertainties that have weakened short-term investment prospects [1] - According to Citigroup's estimates, a 10% increase in the euro against the dollar could lead to a reduction of approximately 2% in the earnings per share of European companies [1] Group 2 - The sectors most likely to be impacted by the euro's appreciation include commodities, food and beverage, healthcare, luxury goods, and the automotive industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit on March 12, 2026, in Beijing, focusing on the key challenges and opportunities in achieving net-zero transitions globally and in China [2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will gather over 300 industry leaders, investment experts, and policymakers to discuss the acceleration of global energy transition in 2025, driven by electricity market reforms, AI growth impacting energy demand, and Chinese companies expanding internationally [2]. - Key topics for discussion include electricity market reform, international market opportunities, and the synergy between energy storage and renewable energy, as well as clean technology supply chains [2]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a keynote speech by the CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, followed by a welcome address and discussions on seizing transformation opportunities amid complex changes [3]. - Subsequent sessions will cover the future strategic planning of public utility companies, the strategic pathways for Chinese oil and gas enterprises, and a closing address by the CEO [4]. Group 3: Sub-forums - The summit will feature sub-forums focusing on specific themes, such as the prospects of wind and solar energy in China's renewable energy construction and the growth opportunities in artificial intelligence data centers for renewable energy [4]. - Additional discussions will include regional insights from Gansu's practices, the evolving Chinese electricity market, and strategies for optimizing the economic viability of energy storage and renewable energy collaboration [4].

为优化全球资产配置并支撑其庞大的海外投资承诺，卡塔尔投资局（QIA）正考虑启动重大架构重组。 据彭博援引知情人士，管理约5800亿美元资产的卡塔尔投资局正探讨将其持有的数百亿美元国内资产分 拆至一个新实体。此举旨在将其海外投资组合与本土资产分离，从而更专注于在全球范围内进行多元化 战略投资。此次酝酿中的重组，正值卡塔尔因液化天然气项目扩张即将迎来新一轮资金流入之际。 分析认为，这一调整为该基金实现其全球投资战略铺平了道路。卡塔尔投资局首席执行官此前已承诺， 将在未来十年内向美国投资至少5000亿美元。通过剥离国内资产，基金可将投资重心进一步转向海外关 键行业，以兑现这一承诺并寻求更高回报。目前相关讨论仍在进行中，尚未作出最终决定。 加速全球扩张步伐 卡塔尔投资局近期持续扩大其全球与本土投资版图。在全球范围内，QIA积极布局人工智能等前沿领 域，其投资组合涵盖大宗商品巨头嘉能可、汽车制造商大众集团及能源企业莱茵集团等重要股权，并持 有伦敦哈罗德百货、碎片大厦等地标性资产。本周，该基金同意深化与高盛集团的战略合作，计划向后 者资产管理业务投入总计可达250亿美元的资金。 在卡塔尔国内市场，QIA同样扮演着核心资本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Shanghai "14th Five-Year" planning proposal emphasizes the acceleration of building "five centers" to enhance the city's capabilities and competitiveness, with a focus on futures and derivatives [1] - The proposal aims to strengthen Shanghai's position as an international financial center by establishing a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center, expanding cross-border and offshore financial services, and promoting RMB internationalization [1][2] - It highlights the need for a robust financial market system, promoting direct financing, enhancing capital market functions, and developing a multi-tiered equity market while also focusing on the orderly development of futures and derivatives markets [2] Group 2 - The proposal includes plans to enhance the international trade center by strengthening the resource allocation function of bulk commodities and supporting the establishment of a national bulk commodity warehouse registration center [2] - In the context of building a global leading international shipping center, the proposal emphasizes the development of modern shipping services and the establishment of a world-class shipping exchange [3] - It supports the expansion of shipping financial services, including insurance and financing leasing for ships and aircraft, while also promoting the use of RMB for shipping freight settlements [3]

Group 1 - The core investment strategies can be summarized into three main methods: earning through foresight, exploiting market panic, and capitalizing on cycles [3][4]. - Earning through foresight involves identifying companies with strong future potential early on, allowing for investment before their value is realized [3]. - Exploiting market panic refers to buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, particularly blue-chip stocks and fundamentally sound turnaround companies, which can yield significant returns when the market recovers [4]. Group 2 - The cycle-based strategy focuses on the cyclical nature of commodities, where buying during industry downturns and selling during peaks can lead to consistent profits [4]. - The three strategies require different attributes: foresight relies on cognitive and logical reasoning, panic exploitation depends on conviction and independence, while cycle investing demands patience and perseverance [5]. - The principles of investment are closely aligned with broader life principles, suggesting that the approach to investing mirrors the approach to personal conduct [6].