把 握 大 贝 塔 比 个 股 微 操 更 重 要 理 英 雄 星 s and 导读：在即将告别2025年之际，我们也开始对各类资产的表现做一个整体回顾。在这个过程中，我们发现黄金年初至今涨幅超60%，在各类资产中 表现突出。事实上，今年COMEX黄金价格涨幅，是1979年以来最高。 （数据来源：Wind，截至日期：2025年12月12日） 在很长一段时间，周期股是被许多人放弃的"渣男行业"。周期股的波动很大，但是需求又随着城镇化见顶进入下行周期，以至于许多投资者都不愿 意做周期股的投资。 中银基金的郭昀松是市场上长期聚焦在周期领域的基金经理之一。 以他管理时间最长的中银稳进策略混合A为例，从2023年11月14日接手管理产 品至今年9月末，组合中始终重仓黄金。到了2024年9月19日，郭昀松又新发了市场上少有的聚焦周期领域的基金：中银周期优选混合发起。基金 定期报告显示，截至2025年9月末，这两只产品均取得了超额收益，中银稳进策略A过去一年净值增长率28.39%（同期业绩比较基准收益率 9.72%），中银周期优选A过去一年净值增长率41.38%（同期业绩比较基准 收益率14.09%）。 （风险提示：前十大 ...

何辉说，据中国物流与采购联合会数据，今年1—10月，全国社会物流总额达293.7万亿元，同比增长 5.1%，物流需求稳步扩张且结构持续优化；物流业总收入11.8万亿元，同比增长4.5%，产业发展质效稳 步提升。2025年11月中国大宗商品价格指数（CBPI）为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%、同比上涨1.6%。这一 指数已连续七个月环比回升，且优于去年同期水平，充分表明随着国家促消费、稳增长等系列政策持续 显效，国内行业供需关系逐步改善，企业发展信心不断增强。 何辉表示，随着数字科技和数字经济加快推进，国际分工的持续深化细化，当前全球大宗商品产业链供 应链已形成"你中有我、我中有你"的相互依存格局。但全球经济、地缘政治和金融市场等不确定因素所 带来的挑战也不容忽视。尤其在贸易领域，信任缺失问题日益凸显，成为制约全球经济增长的重要因 素；传统贸易模式存在效率低下、信息不对称等弊端，已难以适配数字化时代的发展要求。面对新的形 势，重构以信任为核心的大宗商品国际贸易规则体系，促进全球经济实现可持续发展，在全球范围已形 成广泛共识。 一是加快培育发展大宗商品新质生产力。特别是现代供应链、数字经济、期现结合等已经在实践中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of policies is expected to shift from external trade competition to domestic economic development in 2026, which could positively impact the stock market if economic performance is stable [4][8][9]. Policy Shift - The upcoming year is the first year of the five-year plan, indicating a high probability of significant policy announcements and support for economic growth [8]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with increased fiscal efforts to support domestic economic construction [8]. AI Market Analysis - Current valuations in the U.S. AI market are at historical highs, but conditions for a bubble burst, such as weakened liquidity and high leverage, have not yet been observed, making it premature to discuss a bubble collapse [10][12]. - Despite high valuations, major tech companies continue to show strong cash flow and growth rates, indicating that while a bubble exists, its timing for a potential burst is uncertain [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to allocate 50% of their portfolio to non-U.S. markets due to the peak performance of U.S. stocks and anticipated depreciation of the U.S. dollar [13][15]. - The upcoming change in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership may lead to more accommodative monetary policies, increasing pressure on the dollar's value [15]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is considered severely undervalued, with recent strengthening indicating the beginning of an appreciation trend, potentially reaching 7.05 against the dollar [16][17]. - The actual exchange rate of the yuan has depreciated by over 25% in recent years, despite strong export performance, suggesting significant room for appreciation [17]. AI Sector Investment - Continued investment in leading Chinese AI companies is recommended, as the technological gap between China and the U.S. is narrowing [18][19]. - The trend of large tech companies transitioning to AI-focused operations is expected to become more pronounced [19]. Commodity Market Outlook - The demand for commodities is anticipated to remain strong due to the resource needs driven by AI development and the economic cycle entering its mid-to-late phase [21][23]. - The performance of precious metals and industrial metals is expected to continue to strengthen, supported by the capital-intensive nature of AI technologies [22][23].

Economic Overview - The current economic fundamentals are at a delicate turning point, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, but underlying signals indicate a cooling trend [1][3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, suggesting a loosening of the previously tight labor market, adding significant uncertainty to future monetary policy directions [1][3] Employment Structure Analysis - Recent revisions of employment data indicate that growth momentum has been overestimated, with August's figures revised down to -26,000 and September's to 108,000 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1%, falling short of expectations, which may erode residents' real purchasing power amid inflation [4][5] Business Activity and PMI - The S&P Global Composite PMI index fell from 54.2 to 53, with the services PMI dropping to 52.9, reflecting a loss of momentum in business activity expansion [5] - Although all sectors remain above the 50 mark, the downward trajectory raises widespread concerns about the sustainability of growth [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with platinum emerging as a leading asset, surging 3.22% to $1,874.30, indicating its safe-haven asset characteristics and expectations of supply-demand gaps in industrial manufacturing [5] - Silver has slightly retreated to $63.795, but its substantial gains since August suggest that the current consolidation may represent a high-level bottoming process [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are hovering around $4,331.20, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as they digest conflicting information [6] - The rise in unemployment provides support for safe-haven assets, while the better-than-expected job growth suppresses bullish momentum [6] - The strong breakout of platinum and the high-level consolidation of gold create a market landscape driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand, with the metal sector's independent trends likely to be a focus in the near term [6]

中国企业违约债券回收率 研究2025 现金更少、待时更长 张积豪 大中华区企业信用研究首席 自2020年违约境内人民币债券： 2 • 非房地产境内债券违约率在2019年达到峰值（1.2%），房地产境内债券违约率在2022年见顶（9.9%），2025年分别回落至0.04%和0.6%。 • 仅21%案例仍未处置。高达61%的庭外处置比例可能是由于境内对违约方资产的索赔力度更大所致。 • 由于境内违约未处置比例（21%）低于境外违约未处置（42%），今年已处置案例降至不及峰值的一半。下降趋势将持续。 • 庭外处置进展更快，但剩余案例进入法庭的时间更长（14个月对6个月），庭内处置时间也更长（13个月对9个月）。 • 房地产危机使得前景较好的违约方能够更快地处置，而前景较弱的违约方则费时更久。 • 庭外处置中，现金及/或股权偿付的占比从19%下降至9%，而纯展期从81%上升至91%。 • 近期所有庭内处置都需偿付现金，包括纯现金（56%）、或加上股权（35%）或资产（9%）。不偿付现金，已不再被债权人接受。 • 庭外处置的现金回收率减少2/3至票面价值的20%，与庭内重组相仿（19%），这反映两种情况下的现金水平都较 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储年内三次降息，中国资产正迎来全球资金的青睐。摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11 月，境外长线资金今年以来通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票。 多家外资机构表示，中国经济展现出韧性，市场估值具备吸引力，且政策环境持续优化，推动海外 长线资金加速回流中国股市。从配置方向看，外资重点关注科技成长、资源品、基本面改善行业及 高股息板块。 海外资金回流中国市场 伴随美联储年内三次降息，海外资金呈现出积极流入中国资产的态势。 摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11月，境外长线资金今年以来通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约 100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票，与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜明对比。 高盛最新发布的全球资金流向报告显示，在截至12月3日的一个月中，中国内地股票基金获得 58.46亿美元净流入，规模超过韩国、印度等市场。 海外中国ETF今年以来也持续"吸金"。富途数据显示，截至12月9日，中国海外互联网ETF- KraneShares资产规模为89.14亿美元，相较于去年年底的54.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged, breaking the $60 per ounce mark and reaching $61.62, with a monthly increase of nearly 9% and an annual increase of over 112% [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Spot silver prices rose significantly, with a peak increase of over 1.3% during the European session on December 10 [1]. - The price has shown a consistent upward trend, potentially marking the eighth consecutive month of gains [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to supply tightness and speculative investments, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Market expectations indicate an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a strong retail and speculative investor base in silver, which tends to attract more funds when upward momentum is established [3]. - Despite a significant 20% increase over the past three weeks, market sentiment remains strong, with discussions of silver potentially reaching $100 [3]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Silver inventory has been steadily decreasing, with mining output failing to meet demand from investors and industrial applications, leading to ongoing supply shortages [4]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has added silver to its list of critical minerals, which may face tariffs or trade restrictions, further tightening supply [4]. - Concerns over tariffs have led traders to move silver to the U.S., exacerbating supply issues in other regions [4].

中国大宗商品价格指数连续七个月环比上升 宏观要闻 中国物流与采购联合会周五公布11月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，连续七个月实现环 比上升，且好于去年同期水平。11月份中国大宗商品价格指数为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨 1.6%。在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，11月价格环比上涨的大宗商品有25种。 其中碳酸锂、焦炭和瓦楞纸涨幅居前，较上月分别上涨15%、7.2%和7.1%。 据国家发改委微信公众号周五发布消息，近日发改委下达2025年第四批以工代赈中央预算内投资60亿 元，全年中央投资规模达到355亿元，预计吸纳超过110万名低收入群众就近务工，同步指导地方在其他 领域重点工程项目中推广以工代赈方式，今年将带动超过400万名低收入群众就近务工。 全年第四批以工代赈中央专项投资已经下达 ...

全文共8078字，阅读大约需要25分钟 文 财信研究院宏观团队 伍超明 段雨佳 | | | 1 1 | | | | I MAYA | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 实体经济 | 金融条件 | | 时间区间 | 股票 | 债券 | 商品 | 现金 | 总体表现 | | 上行 | 宽松强化 | 2005-06 | 2006-05 | 2.44 | 1.55 | 1.88 | 0 0 0 | 股票>商品>债券>现金 | | | | 2007-09 | 2008-01 | -0.62 | -2.28 | 2.12 | | | | | | 2009-03 | 2010-03 | 1.64 | -1.45 | 3.18 | | | | | | 2016-05 | 2017-01 | 0.85 | -1.54 | 0.48 | 0 | | | | | 2020-02 | 2020-05 | -0.29 | 1.73 | -1.72 | 0 | | | 上行 | 宽松收敛 | 2006-06 | 2007-08 | 5.31 | - ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the improvement of the Black-Litterman (BL) model through the integration of nested cycle theory, which enhances the Sharpe ratio and win rate of asset portfolios, recommending an increase in A-shares and US Treasuries while gradually reducing US stock positions for 2026 [2][3][10]. Group 1: BL Model Overview - The BL model combines market implied equilibrium returns with investor subjective views weighted by confidence levels, resulting in more robust expected returns for asset allocation [8][10]. - The model addresses the high sensitivity of traditional mean-variance models to parameters and incorporates subjective investor views, making it more practical [10][11]. Group 2: Impact of Nested Cycle Theory - The improvement of the BL model is primarily based on subjective views derived from nested cycle theory, which assesses the performance of major asset classes under different cycle phases [10][11]. - The model outputs significantly enhance the Sharpe ratio of portfolios, allowing for better risk-adjusted returns [10][12]. Group 3: Asset Class Outlook for 2026 - The report forecasts a gradual shift to a de-stocking phase for major economies in 2026, suggesting an increase in allocations to A-shares and US Treasuries while reducing US stock positions [2][3][10]. - The model's asset return predictions will be based on historical average data from the transition from passive to active de-stocking phases [25][26]. Group 4: Performance of Asset Classes - Historical data indicates that during the passive de-stocking phase, equities outperform other asset classes with an average annual return of 27.74% and a win rate of 60% [17][18]. - In the active re-stocking phase, equities and commodities show strong performance, with equities achieving an average return of 40.01% and a win rate of 83% [17][18]. - Bonds perform best during the active de-stocking and passive re-stocking phases, with average returns of 10.28% and 3.61%, respectively [17][18]. Group 5: Model Implementation Steps - The BL model involves several steps: calculating prior expected returns, inputting subjective views, calculating posterior expected returns, and optimizing the asset allocation [21][22][23]. - The model's implementation requires historical return data and subjective forecasts from investment managers, with constraints on asset allocation ratios [30][31].