1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, with Venezuela's production increase in progress and Iran's situation in a state of low - intensity friction, there is a bottom for oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, the chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further production cuts in China [34]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.93% decline, at 446.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures of related refined oil closed down 43.00 yuan/ton (1.57%) at 2692.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.35%) at 3165.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels to 203.73 million barrels, a 1.01% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.60 million barrels to 93.96 million barrels, a 1.73% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 96.25 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.29 million barrels to 190.21 million barrels, a 1.22% increase [1]. - **Strategy View**: With the US energy minister's visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress. Iran's situation is in a state of low - intensity friction. There is a bottom for oil prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Jiangsu changed by 37 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Lunan, - 5 yuan/ton in Henan, 0 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 10 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The main futures contract changed by 25.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2304 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 35 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Henan, 20 yuan/ton in Hebei, 0 yuan/ton in Hubei, 0 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 0 yuan/ton in Shanxi, and 0 yuan/ton in the Northeast. The overall basis was reported at - 50 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, closing at 1790 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector was oscillating. Butadiene rubber rose, while RU declined. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes in limited production increase in Southeast Asian rubber forests, seasonal price increase in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes in uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of January 22, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.70%, 0.14 percentage points lower than last week and 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.27%, 0.92 percentage points higher than last week and 5.34 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton (1.3%) increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: The chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 48 yuan to 4911 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 201 (+ 8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2475 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 603 (- 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous month; the calcium - carbide - based process was 80%, unchanged from the previous month; the ethylene - based process was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous month. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 million tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 million tons (+ 3.3) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5980 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5990 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the pure benzene basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7649 yuan/ton, a 53 - yuan/ton decline; the basis was 251 yuan/ton, a 103 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 192.75 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 123.3 yuan/ton, an 11.6 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6899 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 4.51 million tons to 35.03 million tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 2.92 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [22]. - **Strategy View**: The futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6709 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6580 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 3.67 million tons to 43.1 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.08 million tons to 19.39 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 7.06 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 236 yuan to 7286 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 27 US dollars to 903 US dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (+ 20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 18). The PX operating load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous month. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted. Overseas, the South Korean GS plant restarted. The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 21.5 million tons of PX to China in the first half of January, a 6.8 - million - ton decline from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a 6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (- 1), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 US dollars (+ 12) [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 180 yuan to 5258 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 125 yuan to 5225 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan (- 14). The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee increased by 17 yuan to 455 yuan, and the on - market processing fee decreased by 25 yuan to 478 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 56 yuan to 3938 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 44 yuan to 3843 yuan. The basis was - 119 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 92 yuan (+ 5). The ethylene glycol operating load was 73%, a 1.4% decline from the previous month, of which the synthetic - gas - based process was 79.4%, a 0.8% decline; the ethylene - based process operating load was 69.5%, a 1.7% decline. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal text

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

Oil Market - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing down $1.26 at $59.36 per barrel, a decline of 2.08% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.18 at $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [2] - EIA report indicated an increase in crude oil inventory by 3.6 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [2] - Gasoline inventory reached its highest level since 2021, with exports dropping by over 500,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the drone attack on a major Russian oil terminal, continue to impact oil prices [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 1.89% to 2592 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.65% to 3135 yuan/ton [3] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels (8.22%) week-on-week, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 13,600 barrels (1.35%) [3] - The market structure for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply from Venezuela [3][4] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.45% to 3157 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments increasing by 15.1% week-on-week [5] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers decreased by 0.5% week-on-week but increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] - The market is currently balancing weak demand with strong cost expectations, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 105 yuan/ton to 15850 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [6] - China's rubber tire production is projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year, while synthetic rubber production is expected to decline by 20.2% [6] - The rise in butadiene rubber prices is attributed to supply shortages and increased demand from tire manufacturers [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5298 yuan/ton, up 2.79%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 4.28% [7] - PX futures closed at 7390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase [7] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 73.04%, down 1.39% week-on-week [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2238 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $260 to $264 per ton [8] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [8] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to pressure from port inventory [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - HDPE and LDPE prices have increased compared to last week, indicating a recovery in demand [9] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday [9] PVC - PVC prices have increased across various regions, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4530 to 4630 yuan/ton [10] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing down, leading to a bearish outlook [10] - The market is expected to experience bottoming trends due to changes in export tax policies [10] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [11] - Demand is expected to remain strong due to pre-spring planting preparations, although market acceptance of prices will be crucial [11] - Urea inventory has decreased by 4.07%, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased to 1185 yuan/ton, with stable pricing in the market [12] - Recent production rates have shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease in output [12] - The market is expected to face pressure from rising supply and stable demand [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1057 yuan/ton, with stable demand observed [14] - The industry is preparing for potential production increases, but seasonal demand may decline as the holiday approaches [14] - Overall supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of inventory accumulation [14]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. - For methanol, considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. - For urea, with the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. - For rubber, with its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 2.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.52%, at 440.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.79%, to 2542.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 12.00 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, to 3090.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.09 million barrels to 7.07 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.50 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.69 million barrels to 8.77 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.82 million barrels to 18.33 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 9 yuan/ton, in Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10.00 yuan/ton to 2209 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 12 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: Considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 29 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1779 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy View**: With the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded in a volatile manner. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 125.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: With its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan to 4743 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (+ 4) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, flat month - on - month. Factory inventory was 31.1 tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 tons (+ 3) [12]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5675 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 7203 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.17 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons, and trader inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 26 yuan to 7206 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 888 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 89.4%, down 1.5% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 80.6%, down 0.6% month - on - month. From mid - to early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 10 yuan to 5154 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5085 yuan. The PTA load was 76.9%, down 1.3% month - on - month. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4 tons [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 15 yuan to 3689 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 31 yuan to 3570 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: The current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] - For methanol, with low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] - For rubber, expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] - For PVC, in the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] - For polyethylene, although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] - For PX, expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] - For PTA, expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.27%, at 437.00 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed inventory accumulation. Crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.90 million barrels to 92.37 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.00 million barrels to 95.56 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.90 million barrels to 187.93 million barrels [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed changes, with Jiangsu down 13 yuan/ton, Lunan down 5 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract decreased by 27.00 yuan/ton to 2206 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 64 yuan [1][2] - **Strategy View**: With low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, with Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, Henan down 10 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1775 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 25 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire factory operating rates changed, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China increased. Spot prices of related products also changed [7][8][9] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 6 yuan to 4807 yuan, and the basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. changed. Cost - end prices were stable, and the overall operating rate was 79.6%. Factory and social inventories changed [12] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, while styrene spot prices rose and futures prices fell. Supply - side operating rates and inventories changed, as did demand - side operating rates [15] - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [20] - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7232 yuan, and the CFR price rose 9 dollars to 888 dollars. PX and PTA operating rates changed, and import and inventory data were reported [22] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 114 yuan to 5144 yuan, and the spot price rose 35 yuan to 5015 yuan. PTA and downstream operating rates changed, and inventory decreased. Processing fees increased [25] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 81 yuan to 3661 yuan, and the spot price fell 36 yuan to 3601 yuan. Supply - side operating rates changed, and downstream operating rates decreased. Import and inventory data were reported, and cost - end prices changed [29] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a weak trend on January 19, with significant differentiation among sectors, resulting in most varieties closing lower. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1676.70 points, up 3.14 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2312.12 points, up 3.89 points or 0.17% [1]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector was notably active, with international gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, which boosted domestic gold and silver futures. Shanghai gold hit a new historical high, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 3% by the end of the day [1][3]. Chemical Sector - In the chemical sector, pure benzene and styrene showed strong performance, closing up 3.48% and 1.84% respectively, leading the chemical sector. The strong performance of styrene is attributed to multiple maintenance shutdowns and export factors, which have increased its profitability [4]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector faced widespread pressure, with Shanghai tin leading the decline, falling 5.98% after a significant drop of over 6% the previous Friday. The market sentiment cooled rapidly, leading to a correction in tin prices after reaching historical highs [5]. Other major industrial metals, including copper, aluminum, and zinc, also saw declines ranging from 0.39% to 2.33% [5]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector, particularly rapeseed meal and oil, experienced significant declines, with rapeseed meal dropping 2.37% and rapeseed oil falling 1.50%. Concerns over potential increases in supply due to improved Sino-Canadian relations contributed to this downturn [6]. The overall weak supply-demand dynamics are expected to keep rapeseed meal prices under pressure [6].