Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and rebounded on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The alumina price has been falling, squeezing the profit of domestic alumina enterprises and weakening the support for the spot price. In Shandong, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term. [2] - Last week, PVC futures rebounded with the support of a warming macro - environment, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream product operating rate has limited improvement, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize from September to October. [2] Urea Industry - The urea futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 210,000 tons in October. The demand is weak, with a short window for autumn fertilizer procurement, high finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers, and slow follow - up of export orders. Without variables such as increased exports or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the spot price may continue to decline, and the futures will continue to fall significantly only if the spot price breaks below 1,550 yuan/ton. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain high as some plants restart or postpone maintenance. The demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, some secondary - downstream inventories are high, and styrene plants plan to reduce production in September - October. The price driving force is weak. [10] - The situation of styrene is similar to that of pure benzene. The supply - demand is expected to be loose in September, and the price driving force is weak. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has increased significantly due to delayed maintenance of some domestic plants, while the demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants postpone commissioning, and many PTA plants plan to have maintenance. The PXN may be compressed in the fourth quarter, and the price driving force is weak. [14] - For PTA, the supply is expected to shrink, but the demand increase is limited, and the basis is not strongly supported. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. [14] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term supply - demand is turning weak. Although the inventory is expected to decrease in September, the terminal market is weak. In the long - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new plant commissioning and seasonal demand decline. [14] - For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price is supported at the low level but lacks upward driving force. [14] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand is still loose. Although the price and processing fees are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, the processing fee has limited upward space. [14][15] Polyolefin Industry - PP production has decreased recently due to losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week, and there are more import offers from North America. The 01 contract has a large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward space. [20] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is trading high - inventory and fast loading in Iran. The coastal inventory has reached a record high, the market sentiment has worsened, and the price and basis have weakened slightly. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and although there is some unplanned maintenance recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September, and the inventory pattern in the inland is relatively healthy. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The port is still receiving a large amount of goods, with significant inventory accumulation and weak trading. The overall valuation is neutral. The futures are oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. [45] Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices were weakly oscillating. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market has refocused on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has eased concerns about secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, reducing the geopolitical risk support for oil prices. The expectation of future supply surplus, combined with the refinery maintenance season and the unexpected increase in US distillate inventory, has put pressure on oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are under pressure. [49] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase. [2] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - From September 11 to September 18, the FOB price at East - China ports increased by 5 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% increase, and the export profit increased by 217.6 yuan/ton, with a 3723.4% increase. The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the CFR price in India decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, with a 3.3% decrease. [2] Supply - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 85.4%, and the operating rate of PVC decreased by 4 percentage points to 75.4%. [2] Demand - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 83.7%, and the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88.2%. [2] Inventory - From September 11 to September 18, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 0.7 tons, with a 7.5% increase, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, with a 1.2% decrease. [2] Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 17, compared with September 16, the 01 - contract price of urea decreased by 5 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the 05 - contract price decreased by 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.17% decrease. [5] Upstream Raw Materials - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of动力煤 at the pithead in Yijinhuoluo Banner increased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 2.14% increase, and the price of动力煤 at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.87% increase. [5] Spot Market Prices - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of small - particle urea in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.56% increase, and the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.65% decrease. [5] Supply - Demand - On September 19, compared with September 18, the domestic daily urea output decreased by 0.02 tons, with a 0.11% decrease. From September 12 to September 19, the domestic weekly urea inventory increased by 32,600 tons, with a 2.88% increase, and the order days of domestic urea production enterprises decreased by 0.7 days, with a 10.17% decrease. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 6 US dollars/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [10] Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of styrene in East - China spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a 1.4% decrease, and the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, with a 66.7% decrease. [10] Downstream Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the cash flow of phenol increased by 28 yuan/ton, with an 8.6% increase, and the cash flow of aniline increased by 93 yuan/ton, with a 29.8% increase. [10] Inventory - From September 8 to September 15, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons, with a 6.9% decrease, and the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons, with a 9.9% decrease. [10] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 78.4%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 73.4%. [10] Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% decrease. [14] Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of POY150/48 decreased by 65 yuan/ton, with a 0.9% decrease, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 45 yuan/ton, with a 0.7% decrease. [14] PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4 US dollars/ton, with a 3.9% decrease, and the PX - MX spread increased by 2 US dollars/ton, with a 1.4% increase. [14] PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PTA East - China spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase, and the TA01 - TA05 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [14] MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MEG East - China spot price decreased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the MEG basis (01) decreased by 62 yuan/ton, with a 3.2% decrease. [14] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the PX operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.3%, and the PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.8%. [14] Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the L2601 closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton, with a 180% increase. [20] Spot Market Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of East - China PP raffia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% decrease, and the price of North - China LLDPE film decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% decrease. [20] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the PE enterprise inventory increased by 23,800 tons, with a 5.57% increase, and the PP enterprise inventory increased by 43,400 tons, with an 8.06% increase. [20] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the PE device operating rate increased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.4%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.93 percentage points to 74.9%. [20] Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MA2601 closing price increased by 15 yuan/ton, with a 0.64% increase, and the MA91 spread decreased by 28 yuan/ton, with a 215.38% decrease. [45] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.21%, with a 0.61% decrease, and the methanol port inventory increased by 7,400 tons, with a 0.48% increase. [45] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.22 percentage points to 68%, and the downstream external - MTO device operating rate increased by 6.02 percentage points to 75.08%. [45] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the Brent price increased by 0.17 US dollars/barrel, with a 0.25% increase, and the SC price decreased by 6.3 yuan/barrel, with a 1.27% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the price of NYM RBOB increased by 0.56 cents/gallon, with a 0.28% increase, and the price of ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.75 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Crack Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the US gasoline crack spread decreased by 1 US dollars/barrel, with a 4.73% decrease, and the European gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.48 US dollars/barrel, with a 2.44% decrease. [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and the 1 - 5 positive spread [4] - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6] - For rubber, adopt a long - term bullish view, and stay on the sidelines in the short term as the short - term trend follows that of industrial products [11] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - term upward movements [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the BZN spread to repair in the long term. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to fluctuate upward in the long term, and the cost provides support [18] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the price is affected by a large number of warehouse receipts, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction [19] - For PX, with high operating loads and expected inventory accumulation, there is currently no strong driving force, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [22] - For PTA, the pattern of inventory reduction continues, but the processing fee is suppressed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [23] - For ethylene glycol, expect inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Given the relatively high valuation, it is recommended to short at high prices, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 5.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.18% increase, at 499.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 32.00 yuan/ton (1.14%) to 2831.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 63.00 yuan/ton (1.86%) to 3459.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: The US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.29 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels (a 2.19% decrease), the SPR increased by 0.50 million barrels to 405.73 million barrels (a 0.12% increase), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.35 million barrels to 217.65 million barrels (a 1.07% decrease), diesel inventories increased by 4.05 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels (a 3.35% increase), fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.41 million barrels to 20.80 million barrels (a 1.93% decrease), and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.63 million barrels to 43.90 million barrels (a 1.46% increase) [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2376 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Enterprise profits are good, overseas operating rates are high, and arrivals are increasing, resulting in sufficient supply. The profit of port MTO is relatively good year - on - year, traditional demand is weak but there are expectations of a peak season, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Port inventories have reached a new high under high supply, while inland enterprise inventories are lower year - on - year [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1681 yuan/ton, the spot price remained stable, and the basis was - 41 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventories are slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. It is the off - season for domestic agricultural demand, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded but is still in a seasonal decline. Overall, demand is weak, and export support is limited [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The forecasted rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is expected to decrease marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls are optimistic about rubber due to seasonal expectations, limited rubber production in Southeast Asia (especially Thailand) due to weather and rubber forest conditions, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the seasonal off - season for demand, and the possibility that supply benefits may be lower than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.87%, up 6.17 percentage points from the previous week and 5.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.30%, up 5.23 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The export expectation has declined after the previous rush of export orders to Europe. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 125.8 tons, a 0.7 - ton (0.57%) decrease; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease; and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.5 tons, a 0.7% decrease. As of September 14, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.8 (- 0.62) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 14950 (- 150) yuan, STR20 at 1860 (- 10) dollars, and STR20 mixed at 1855 (- 10) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11500 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 13 yuan to 4973 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 183 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (- 2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2550 yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade blue charcoal was 680 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 850 (0) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 820 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamentals**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a 2.8% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based production was 79.4%, a 2.7% increase; and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 3.2% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.5%, a 4% increase. Factory inventory was 31 tons (- 0.6), and social inventory was 93.4 tons (+ 1.6). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, few maintenance activities, and high production. Multiple new plants are expected to be put into operation in the short term. Although domestic downstream operating rates have improved, the export expectation has weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices rose, while futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential [15] - **Cost and Supply**: The operating rate of pure benzene is moderately volatile, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene production has been increasing. Styrene port inventories have been significantly reduced [15][16] - **Demand**: As the seasonal peak season approaches, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been declining [16] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5970 yuan/ton (no change), the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton (a 75 - yuan increase), the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7138 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan decrease), the basis was 62 yuan/ton (a 95 - yuan increase), the BZN spread was 136.12 yuan/ton (a 5.62 - yuan increase), the profit of non - integrated styrene production was - 405.3 yuan/ton (a 30 - yuan decrease), the 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton (a 19 - yuan decrease), the upstream operating rate was 75% (a 4.70% decrease), the port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons (a 2.00 - ton decrease), the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.73% (a 1.11% decrease), the operating rate of PS was 61.00% (a 1.10% increase), the operating rate of EPS was 52.52% (a 5.82% decrease), and the operating rate of ABS was 69.00% (a 1.80% decrease) [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history is high, suppressing the futures price. There are only 40 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, providing support for the price. As the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the raw material inventory for agricultural films has started to build up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low [19] - **Fundamentals**: In a context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6772 yuan, the PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 71 yuan (+ 5) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 32 yuan (- 10) [21] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate in China was 87.8%, a 4.1% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 79%, a 2.5% increase. CNOOC Huizhou increased its production, Fuhua Group restarted, and an overseas 19 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted [21] - **Imports and Inventories**: In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 tons, a 0.6 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of July was 389.9 tons, a 24 - ton decrease from the previous month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 103 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, while the downstream PTA has experienced many unexpected maintenance activities in the short term, with a relatively low overall operating rate. The new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of PX, and there is currently no strong driving force for the PXN to rise [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4712 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 77 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan (+ 10) [23] - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate was 76.8%, a 4.6% increase. Dushan Energy and Hengli Huizhou restarted. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [23] - **Inventories**: On September 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207 tons, a 5 - ton decrease [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA remained unchanged at 131 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 291 yuan. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee is continuously suppressed. The inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers on the demand side are low, and the operating rate is expected to remain high, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 25 yuan to 4297 yuan, the East China spot price fell 12 yuan to 4373 yuan, the basis was 81 yuan (- 10), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan (- 11) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, a 1.2% increase. The operating rate of syngas - based production was 76.7%, a 3.1% increase, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production remained unchanged. Some syngas - based plants had production stoppages and restarts, and overseas plants also had some changes in their operating status. The import arrival forecast was 9.4 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on September 16 was 0.67 tons [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [24] - **Inventories and Valuation**: The port inventory was 46.5 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 613 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 784 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 812 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder increased to 570 yuan. Currently, the operating rates of domestic and overseas plants are high, and the domestic supply is large. Although the port arrival volume is expected to be low in the short term, the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term due to concentrated imports, high domestic operating rates, and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures market is stabilizing, with overall commodity sentiment positive. Supply may decline due to planned maintenance, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening, while non - alumina demand is improving but with limited price support. Spot prices may stabilize, and the downside of futures prices is limited [27]. - The PVC futures market is rebounding, driven by macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance this week, and demand from downstream products is slightly increasing. The cost side is providing bottom support, and it is expected to stop falling in the peak season from September to October [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and short - term demand has some support, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term [30]. - PTA's spot market liquidity is good, and the medium - term supply - demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and TA1 - 5 should be rolled in a reverse spread [30]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to reduce inventory in September but increase inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and use EG1 - 5 reverse spread [30]. - Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100 [30]. - Bottle - chip's supply increases slightly, and demand may decline. It mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be supported by the strong oil price and good macro - atmosphere, and BZ2603 should follow styrene to fluctuate strongly [35]. - Styrene's price is strongly supported but the upside is limited by high port inventory. EB10 should be bought at low prices, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread should be widened at low levels [35]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have rebounded in the past two days, driven by supply - side maintenance expectations. Demand is mainly supported by export and industrial needs, and the futures increase is mainly due to short - covering and expectation differences [39][40]. Methanol Industry - Methanol's supply in the inland is at a high level, and demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The inventory pattern is relatively healthy, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high - inventory reality and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be monitored [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - PP's PDH and propylene - purchasing profits are suppressed, with more unplanned maintenance and falling inventory, but the basis is still weak. PE's maintenance is at a relatively high level, with short - term low supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand for new orders is poor, and the market is in a state of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [45]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, which increased concerns about supply disruptions of Russian refined oil and crude oil. The market's focus has shifted to immediate supply risks, and the oil price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the options side after volatility increases [48] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 16, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 3.0%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 4.4%. The prices of East - China PVC increased, and the prices of related futures contracts also changed slightly [27]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%, while the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC decreased by 12.8% [27]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all increased slightly, and the start - up rates of downstream PVC products also increased [27]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 17.0%, and the total social inventory of PVC decreased slightly by 0.3% [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 16, the prices of most downstream polyester products increased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [30]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX price decreased by 0.2%, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 0.9% [30]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the processing fee of PTA's spot increased by 19.6% [30]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the basis of EG01 increased [30]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA all increased, while the start - up rate of pure - polyester yarn decreased [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3% [35]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene's East - China spot increased by 0.8%, and the cash flows of non - integrated and integrated styrene improved [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of some products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased, while the start - up rates of downstream PS and EPS increased [35]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: On September 16, the prices of urea futures contracts increased slightly, and the price of methanol futures decreased [39]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials of urea remained stable, and the estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry remained unchanged [40]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in different regions changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [40]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased by 3.44%, while the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [40]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [42]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol increased [42]. - **Methanol Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of upstream domestic enterprises and overseas exchanges decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - **Product Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [45]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [45]. - **Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [45]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 17, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and different types of crude oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts of refined oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, expect the fundamentals to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [5] - For urea, due to weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, take a long - term bullish view, and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] - For PVC, with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about upward movements [12] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term [17] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [18] - For PX, with high load and limited inventory accumulation, the valuation has support, and it is suggested to wait and watch [21] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and watch [22] - For ethylene glycol, with high supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 8.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.86%, to 488.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 66.00 yuan/ton, or 2.41%, to 2799.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 87.00 yuan/ton, or 2.65%, to 3375.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 3.83 million barrels to 213.37 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.67 million barrels to 90.76 million barrels, a 1.88% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.93 million barrels to 103.23 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.60 million barrels to 193.99 million barrels, a 1.36% increase [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 [5] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been realized. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while that of inland enterprises is relatively low. The fundamentals are expected to gradually improve [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has increased but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and export support is limited [7] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products generally rose, and NR and RU rebounded [9] - **Fundamentals**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the supply - side positive factors. There are different views among bulls and bears. Bulls focus on weather, seasonality, and demand expectations, while bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand [9][10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a long - term bullish view and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 45 yuan to 4921 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 181 (+15) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (0) yuan/ton [12] - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has risen. The downstream operating rate has also increased. However, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level, and the valuation pressure is large. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak [12] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5920 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7087 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; the basis was 13 yuan/ton, weakening by 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 420.8 yuan/ton, up 30.25 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and the operating rate of styrene is rising. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the demand for three S products is oscillating downward [14][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 7232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 42 yuan/ton, weakening by 63 yuan/ton [17] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has support. The supply capacity is limited, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stockpile, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to oscillate upwards [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6966 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 91 yuan/ton, weakening by 53 yuan/ton [18] - **Fundamentals**: The supply capacity is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [18] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 40 yuan to 6752 yuan, the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 95 yuan (- 3), and the 11 - 1 spread was 46 yuan (0) [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PX load is at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance operations in the short term. The PTA new plant has been put into operation, and the PX inventory accumulation is limited. The polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has support at the bottom [20][21] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4672 yuan, the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 4600 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (- 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (- 4) [22] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load has increased, and the downstream load has also increased slightly. The social inventory has decreased. The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal recovery is slow [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4288 yuan, the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4378 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan (- 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan (+2) [23] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is at a high level, and the downstream load has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene has risen. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about the non - realization of weak expectations [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].