1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a continuous oversupply and high operational rates among enterprises, leading to bearish market sentiment [1][2][3] - As of September 5, the main alumina futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, but this represents a nearly 14% decline from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1] - The average spot price of alumina this week was 3189.08 yuan/ton, down 36.98 yuan/ton from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 1.15% [1] Group 2 - In terms of demand, the estimated alumina consumption in August was 764.28 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2] - The total alumina inventory in China as of August 28 was 431.6 million tons, up 23.4 million tons from the end of July, driven by high production rates and increased imports [2] - The alumina market is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions remain slightly tight [2][3] Group 3 - The outlook for September suggests that alumina prices may continue to weaken, with expected price ranges between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton due to increased market supply and pressure from downstream aluminum plants [3][4] - Analysts predict that the spot prices for metallurgical-grade alumina may experience slight declines over the next three months, influenced by stable output from newly added capacities and ongoing repairs in production lines [4] - The cost side remains uncertain due to seasonal disruptions in Guinea and fluctuations in raw material prices, although it is expected that the cost will provide some support [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report, but a short - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Core Viewpoints - Overseas ore supply is improving, and ore prices may face pressure in the fourth quarter. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to perform strongly. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for macro - sentiment resonance. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut policy [12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - As of September 5, the alumina index decreased by 6.27% to 3005 yuan/ton compared to July 31. In late August, the bullish sentiment in commodities ebbed, and the supply - surplus structure drove the alumina futures price down [11] - Alumina production remained at a high level, with continuous inventory accumulation and looser warehouse receipts, causing the spot price to decline. As of September 5, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased significantly compared to the end of July [11] - As of September 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 275,000 tons to 4.357 million tons. The futures warehouse receipts and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse also increased. As the spot market loosened, the warehouse receipt registration volume gradually recovered [11] 2. Period - Spot End - Futures price: As of September 5, the alumina index decreased by 6.27% to 3005 yuan/ton compared to July 31. The supply - surplus structure led to a downward trend [21] - Basis: Pessimistic sentiment drove the futures price down, and the basis continued to rise. As of September 5, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price [21] - Calendar spread: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable, recording - 12 yuan/ton as of September 5 [21] 3. Raw Material End - Bauxite price: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of September 5, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite increased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 74.5 dollars/ton, while that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton. Short - term support for ore prices exists due to reduced arrivals [25] - Bauxite production: In August 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [27] - Bauxite import: In July 2025, bauxite imports were 20.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% and a month - on - month increase of 10.75%. The cumulative imports in the first seven months were 123.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.69% [29] - Guinea bauxite import: In July 2025, China imported 1594 tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 51.98% and a month - on - month increase of 19.64%. The cumulative imports in the first seven months were 95.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.14% [32] - Bauxite inventory: As of August 29, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory was 1.192 million tons, and China's port inventory was 2.865 million tons. In August, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 160,000 tons to 5.33 million tons, with Shanxi and Henan seeing inventory decreases [34][36] 4. Supply End - Alumina production: In July 2025, alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99% [39] - Operating capacity: In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. The smelting profit recovered, and new capacity was gradually put into operation [42] - Newly - added capacity: In 2025, the total planned newly - added capacity was 13.3 million tons. Some projects in the first half of the year were successfully put into operation, and the Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter. The Dongfang Hope project may be postponed to January 2026 [44][45] - Production profit: Alumina spot prices declined, squeezing producers' profits. On September 5, Guangxi's production profit was 510 yuan/ton, and Shandong's profits using Australian and Guinea ores were 242 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore could achieve profits of 22 yuan/ton and 133 yuan/ton [47] 5. Import and Export - In July 2025, alumina had a net export of 103,500 tons. The import volume increased from 1.013 million tons to 1.259 million tons, and the export volume increased from 1.71 million tons to 2.294 million tons. The cumulative net export in the first seven months was 1.1786 million tons [12][50] - As of September 5, the Australian FOB price decreased by 21 dollars/ton to 356 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 10 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching [53] 6. Demand End - Electrolytic aluminum production: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57] - Operating capacity and utilization rate: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.19 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [60] 7. Inventory - As of September 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 275,000 tons to 4.357 million tons, with different changes in various types of inventory [65] - As of September 5, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the SHFE delivery warehouse inventory increased by 72,000 tons to 119,200 tons. As the spot market loosened, the warehouse receipt registration volume gradually recovered [67]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing a shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, with prices expected to continue a weak trend in September due to increased supply and stable demand from downstream aluminum producers [1][2][4]. Supply Analysis - As of September 5, the main aluminum oxide futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, down nearly 14% from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1]. - The average price of metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the spot market was 3189.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.98 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous week [1]. - The supply of aluminum oxide remains ample, with a forecasted production of 7.7823 million tons by August 2025, an increase of 3.55% from July [1][2]. - Total aluminum oxide inventory in China reached 4.316 million tons by August 28, 2025, up 23.4 million tons from the previous month [2]. Demand Analysis - In August, the estimated consumption of aluminum oxide was 7.6428 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2]. - The demand from downstream aluminum producers remains stable, with high operating rates in the electrolytic aluminum sector, although some regions are experiencing slight adjustments in production capacity [2][3]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of continued weak pricing in September, projected to range between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase as production stabilizes and some companies resume operations after maintenance [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to be influenced more by fundamental factors, with a strong supply and weak demand scenario likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic indicates that Yongxing Huashan's mining safety production license has been successfully renewed, and domestic weekly lithium carbonate production remains above 20,000 tons, with some companies resuming operations [1] - The operating rate of spodumene lithium extraction lines has further increased, and the production and processing profits in the smelting segment remain favorable [1] - Key events to monitor include the renewal and resumption timeline of CATL's mining license, adjustments in trading limits and margin requirements by the Guangxi Futures Exchange, and the supply and import situation of overseas lithium mines [1] Group 2: Alumina - The domestic spot market price of alumina has seen a decline, with the largest drop in Xinjiang region at 30 yuan/ton; as of August 28, China's total alumina inventory reached 4.316 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts continue to rise, indicating potential for further increases in inventory [1] - Key events to watch include the progress of domestic alumina resumption and new production, export policies and supply disruptions from bauxite mines in Guinea and Indonesia, and the impact of the traditional peak season on inventory replenishment [1] Group 3: Soybean Meal - The trading logic suggests that the excellent condition of U.S. soybeans supports high yield expectations, while domestic soybean crushing remains at high levels, leading to ample supply of soybean meal [1] - U.S. soybean exports to China have been zero for 17 consecutive weeks, with no signs of procurement starting [1] - Key events to monitor include the results of the new round of negotiations between China and the U.S., the USDA's September supply and demand report, and the planting progress and weather conditions for soybeans in Brazil and Argentina [1] Group 4: Tin - The trading logic indicates that a subsidiary of Tin Industry Co. has announced equipment maintenance, with the maintenance expected to last no more than 45 days starting August 30, 2025; the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is at 86.2% [1] - The recovery of tin supply from Myanmar is progressing slowly, and imports of tin ore into China remain low [1] - Key events to watch include the manufacturing PMI on August 31, the progress of tin mine recovery in Myanmar, and the Fed's interest rate decisions [1] Group 5: Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons; the volume of foreign ore arriving at ports has hit a one-month low, leading to a continuous decline in inventory [1] - The profitability of steel mills is at 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week, with daily iron water production at 2.4013 million tons, down by 6,200 tons [1] - Key events to monitor include the actual implementation of production limits in the north, the recovery of demand during the traditional peak season, and the macroeconomic impacts of potential Fed rate cuts [1] Group 6: Glass - The trading logic indicates that prices in the East China market have increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton; the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises nationwide is 62.566 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes or 1.63% [2] - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to drive relative seasonal demand [2] - Key events to monitor include whether the traditional peak season will lead to rigid replenishment and the impact of production and logistics restrictions on demand [2] Group 7: Coking Coal - The trading logic indicates that an online auction for 64,000 tons of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company failed; the purchasing pace from downstream has slowed, leading to increased supply pressure at ports in North and East China [2] - The profitability of coking plants is at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton from the previous period [2] - Key events to watch include the progress of "anti-involution" regulations, changes in pricing at Ganqimaodu port, and the recovery of coal mine supply [2]