银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，得益于美元的疲软，伦敦金自盘中早些时候触及的低点反弹， | | 研究员：王伟 | 收复日内全部跌幅，最终收涨 0.43%，收报 3325.215 美元/盎司；伦敦银连续第四个交 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 易日上涨，最终收涨 2.16%，报 36.743 美元/盎司，继续刷新自 2012 年以来的价格高 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 点。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.18%，报 776.66 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 | | | 2.07%，报 9015 元/千克，为沪银合约上市以来的新高。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数震荡走低，最终收跌 0.25%，报 98.94。 | | 期货从业证号 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 有色金属衍生品日报 第一部分 市场研判 铜 【市场回顾】 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78880 元/吨，涨幅 0.27%，沪铜指数增仓 11993 手至 57.77 万手。 2.现货：铜价居高，下游采购受抑，上海现货报升水 85 元/吨，持平上一交易日。广东虽库 存 4 连降，但受制于铜价走高，持货商难大幅挺价，报升水 60 元/吨，上涨 5 元/吨。天津 报贴水 180 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 中国中矿资源集团表示，由于全球冶炼产能迅速扩张导致铜精矿短缺，其位于纳米比亚 的 Tsumeb 工厂已暂停铜冶炼作业。该冶炼厂每年可处理 24 万吨铜精矿。 2. Mysteel 调研国内 61 家精铜杆生产企业，总涉及产能 1584 万吨(含 2025 年新增产能)， 2025 年 5 月国内精铜杆产量为 84.08 万吨，环比减少 4.78%，同比增加 23.43%。据 Mvsteel 调研国内 74 家再生铜杆样本企业，总涉及产能 819 万吨，2025 年 5 月国内再生铜杆样本产 量为 ...

周四，氧化铝期货大幅下挫，回吐昨日全部涨幅，价格再度跌破3000元关口，价格增仓下行，日内收跌 2.90%，报2943元/吨。 库存拐点显现，结束四连降！引发短期悲观预期 我的钢铁网分析认为：当前国内氧化铝企业用矿压力仍在，一方面在于几内亚铝矿政策扰动及海运费波 动等因素导致近期几内亚铝土矿价格维持上涨局面；另一方面是短期国产铝土矿补充供应缺口能力有 限。 最新数据显示，氧化铝市场库存压力正在逐步显现。据Mysteel统计，截至6月5日全国氧化铝库存为 380.5万吨，较前一周增加1.1万吨，此前连续四周下降。其中港口库存大增4.1万吨，在途库存小幅增 加，而氧化铝及电解铝厂内库存则出现下降。这一库存结构变化表明，市场流通环节的氧化铝供应正在 增加，而终端需求方的采购意愿相对减弱。 金瑞期货指出：市场情绪受现货跌价成交及社会库存转累影响，引发短期悲观预期，期价增仓下行。 多家氧化铝企业陆续着手复产，供应端压力持续增加 氧化铝供应端呈现明显恢复态势。据SMM数据，截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万 吨/年，运行总产能8727万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周回升0.54个百分点至78.75%。 ...

和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融 资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 4月企业融资环境指数为49.1，高于前值的48.0；消费品价格前瞻指数为45.2，高于前值的42.8；企业招 工前瞻指数为50.5，高于前值的48.6。 4月中间品价格前瞻指数为33.6，低于前值的39.3；企业利润前瞻指数为46.6，低于前值的47.7；企业投 资前瞻指数为53.3，低于前值的57.7。 从BCI反映出来的经济节奏看，2024年9月BCI为46.0；"9·24"之后，2024年10-11月经济初步好转，读数 分别为48.1、50.5；12月二次回踩，读数为48.3；2025年1-3月连续好转，读数分别为49.4、52.8、54.8。 4月BCI环比放缓，读数降至50.1。2025年5月再度小幅回升，读数为50.3。 文/广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 2 0 25年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。关于5月经济， EPMI、BCI这两份先后出来的"软数据"在指向上高度吻合，受一揽子金 融政策叠加关 ...

| | | | The Press of the control of the program and the first of the | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3809.2 | -0.57% | -096% | 2.50% | -1.28% | -2.85% | | | 上证50期货 | 2668.6 | -01-94 | -0.91% | 2.28% | 0.10% | -0.35% | | | 中证500期货 | 5578 | -0.304 | 0.294 | 1.47% | -4.15% | -2.02% | | | 中证1000期货 | 5915 | -0.17% | 0.734 | 1.96% | -2.22% | 1.14% | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.41 | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.55% ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced significant volatility in May, driven by Guinea's mining policy changes and shifts in supply-demand expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Guinea's Mining Policy Impact - The Guinean government has revoked numerous mining licenses, affecting various sectors including bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore [2]. - Despite the current uncertainty, there are expectations that companies may be able to bid for new mining licenses, alleviating some market concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has improved as it is believed that long-term shutdowns of mining operations are not feasible for economic reasons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's bauxite imports increased by 34.3% year-on-year from January to April, with a notable 59.62% increase in April alone, reaching a historical high [3]. - As of the end of April, China's bauxite inventory stood at 41.15 million tons, indicating a relatively ample supply [3]. - Domestic demand for aluminum oxide remains stable, although export demand has weakened [3]. Group 3: Production and Pricing Trends - The operating rate of aluminum oxide production facilities has been high due to favorable profit margins, providing strong support for demand [4]. - In April, China's aluminum oxide production was 7.323 million tons, showing a 2% month-on-month decline but a 6.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - The average cost of aluminum oxide production decreased to 2,850 yuan/ton in May, leading to a recovery in industry profits, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall price of bauxite has rebounded due to the mining rights revocation in Guinea, but high domestic inventories may limit the impact on near-term supply [5]. - Approximately 5.2 million tons of new production capacity with significant cost advantages are expected to be released in the second quarter [5]. - The aluminum oxide market may experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at 3,500 yuan/ton and support around 2,800 yuan/ton [5].

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2506 合约收于 77920 元，跌幅 0.22%，沪铜指数减仓 6043 手至 52.50 万 手。 2.现货：现货商甩货，现货升水大幅下降。上海报升水 135 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 140 元/吨。天津报贴水 70 元/吨，下降 70 元/吨，由于持货商对后市悲观低价出货。广东库存 和铜价均走低，持货商挺价出货，报升水 205 元/吨，上涨 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 5 月 22 日，铜矿商自由港印尼公司称，其位于东爪哇岛、耗资 37 亿美元 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日星期三 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2506 合约收于 78100 元，涨幅 0.31%，沪铜指数增仓 3097 手至 53.10 万 手。 2.现货：进口贸易商以及持仓单贸易商低价出货，下游积极采购，上海报升水 275 元/吨， 较上一交易日下跌 115 元/吨。广东由于库存和铜价走高，持货商只能降价出货，报升水 185 元/吨，下跌 5 元/吨。天津报平水，下跌 50 元/吨，主要由于铜价重心上移，消费受抑 制。 【重要资讯】 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 1. Ivanhoe 矿业公司因刚果民主共和国东部矿区出现地震活动 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" for caustic soda and alumina, and "Oscillating" for aluminum [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - In the alumina industry chain, caustic soda prices are expected to continue a small - scale oscillating upward trend in the short term; alumina prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term; and aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract oscillated downward during the day and continued to decline at night, closing at 2513 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.87%. Trading volume was 614,700 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 200,800 lots, an increase of 14,213 lots; turnover was 47.285 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous trading day [1] - **Important Information**: Weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.97%, a 0.68% increase from the previous week; weekly domestic production was 835,100 tons, a 0.68% increase; weekly domestic factory inventory was 256,000 tons, a 2.77% increase; cost per 100% caustic soda was 1,800.96 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; gross profit per 100% caustic soda was 1,202.22 yuan/ton, a 1.04% increase [1] - **Market Logic**: The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 953.91 yuan/ton, up 3.38 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous working day. The domestic liquid caustic soda market average price increased, with different trends in futures and spot. The supply in the industry is relatively sufficient, and downstream receiving is stable. Non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the alumina market's demand is driven by the price improvement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [1] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract was weakly running during the day and oscillated narrowly at night, closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Trading volume was 2,165,900 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 473,600 lots, an increase of 30,803 lots; turnover was 136.348 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] - **Important Information**: Last week, domestic alumina factory inventory was 158547 tons, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week; market inventory was 76,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. This week, domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 162,160 tons, a 0.96% decrease; the weekly operating utilization rate was 76.46%, a 0.96% decrease. The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3198.36 yuan/ton, a 4.04% decrease; industry gross profit was - 239.07 yuan/ton, a 45.24% increase [3] - **Market Logic**: The spot market average price was 3059.85 yuan/ton, up 48.62 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The Guinea incident continued to disrupt the market, with an expected decrease in ore supply, and alumina prices remained high. The market's operating capacity was always at a low level, resulting in a supply gap. There was an expected decrease in Guinea's ore supply and an expected increase in imported ore prices, increasing enterprise costs and leading to a reluctance to sell in the industry. The import market was relatively active, with the Australian FOB price at 367 US dollars/ton. China's alumina imports in April were 10705.49 tons, a 90.12% year - on - year decrease and a 4.16% month - on - month decrease; exports were 262875.89 tons, a 101.62% year - on - year increase and an 11.41% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [3] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2507 contract oscillated, jumped at the night - session opening and continued a small - scale upward trend, closing at 20185 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Trading volume was 182,300 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 515,900 lots, a decrease of 5569 lots; turnover was 18.285 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [4] - **Important Information**: Bauxite weekly production was 1.13 million tons, a 0.53% increase; electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 84.09 tons, a 0.02% increase. This week, the industry's production cost was 16894.59 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase; the industry's average gross profit was 3229.78 yuan/ton, a 12.27% increase. Factory inventory during the week was 53,000 tons, a 3.99% decrease; market inventory was 61,940 tons, a 5.13% decrease; LME inventory was 395,400 tons, a 0.46% decrease; SHFE inventory was 62,800 tons, a 1.6% decrease [4] - **Market Logic**: The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasized a wait - and - see attitude, advocating patience in adjusting interest rates. Coupled with the downward risk of the US economy, the outer - market aluminum price was affected. The domestic market was still waiting and seeing about the impact of tariff policies, and the market sentiment eased after domestic banks lowered deposit rates. There were both bullish and bearish news in the current industry, but domestic macro - policies would continue to drive market demand, and the overall domestic market sentiment was good [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [4]

5月20日，国家发改委召开5月份新闻发布会。 国家发改委：系统谋划7方面53项配套举措 推动民营经济促进法落地见效 国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超表示，民营经济促进法今日起正式施行，这是社会主义 市场经济建设的标志性事件，在我国民营经济发展历程中具有里程碑意义。国家发改委将从三方面推动法 律实施工作：一是全面开展法律宣传活动，二是加快推动配套政策措施落地见效，三是会同有关部门和地 方，切实推动解决民营企业关心和关切问题。 其中，在制定配套政策方面，国家发改委会同有关部门系统谋划了7个方面53项政策举措。目前相关政策 举措已陆续出台实施。例如，关于健全社会信用体系意见、市场准入壁垒清理整治行动等。后续国家发改 委还将建立细化台账，逐项推动相关政策举措出台和实施。 在解决民企关心的问题方面，则要用好新增地方政府专项债等相关政策，强化失信惩戒，加快构建民营企 业账款清欠进度；推动涉企执法专项行动，坚决防止违规异地执法和趋利性执法，实施好涉企收费长效监 管机制，提高涉企收费透明度。 国家发改委：大部分稳就业稳经济政策将在6月底前落地 李超表示，在加快落实既定政策基础上，国家发改委已会同有关部门加快推出稳 ...