热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国三季度实际GDP大幅增长 4.3%，创两年内最快增速，因家庭消费支出强劲，但美国PCE物价指数年化季环比 2.9%，持平预期但 高于前值2.6%，对美联储未来降息预期有一定抑制作用。但特朗普称，望下一任美联储主席在经济和 市场表现良好时降息，而不是因通胀担忧提前"扼杀行情"，其本人仍敦促降息，在美联储主席人选上或 有倾向性。国内方面，全国住房城乡建设工作会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场。消息面，据Mysteel， 12月19日中国铜冶炼厂代表与Antofagasta 敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/ 磅。库存方面，LME库存增加825吨至158575吨；Comex库存增加3879吨至427435吨；SHFE铜仓单增加 1001吨至49543吨，BC铜仓单维持1053吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以 刚需为主。美联储降息预期和购债呵护下，宏观维系偏暖氛围，宽松叙事结构下铜保持偏强走势，另外 也包含了对明年经济增速继续修复 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

鲁网12月20日讯2025年12月19日，中国有色金属工业协会在山东潍坊组织召开了"高效磁悬浮真空系统 在氧化铝行业中的应用"科技成果评价暨有色金属行业技术交流会，与会人员参观了天瑞重工磁悬浮研 发中心和两个生产厂区，对天瑞重工取得的成绩表示高度认可。鉴定委员会一致认为，山东天瑞重工有 限公司、信发集团有限公司、山东鲁北企业集团总公司联合研发的高效磁悬浮真空系统在氧化铝行业中 的应用技术成果，达到"国际领先水平"。这一突破性成果不仅为我国氧化铝行业绿色化、智能化转型注 入强劲动能，更为全球有色金属产业高质量发展提供了中国方案与技术标杆。 魏桥集团、中铝集团、锦江集团、创新集团、南山集团等头部企业参加了会议。（通讯员 纪哲） ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed narrow fluctuations, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling job market in the U.S., with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. This data confirms a cooling job market, but its impact on the Federal Reserve's view on potential rate cuts in January remains uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in January has increased again [3][11] - The U.S. December Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, indicating a slowdown in order growth and rising price indices. Domestically, the Central Financial Office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, continuing a moderately loose monetary policy [3][11] - Inventory levels show LME copper stocks at 165,875 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,652 tons to 412,444 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons, and BC copper increased by 1,012 tons to 6,977 tons. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting may introduce macroeconomic disturbances, leading to cautious sentiment in overseas financial markets [3][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Overnight LME nickel fell by 0.28% to $14,255 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66% to 111,890 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remains negative, and the import nickel spread is stable at 400 yuan per ton [12] - Nickel iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. However, the raw material prices are under pressure due to falling nickel prices and weakening demand [12] - The domestic inventory of primary nickel is increasing again, and the basic fundamentals are dragging nickel prices into a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [12] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,553 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2602 closing at 21,825 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. Aluminum alloy prices increased slightly, with AD2602 closing at 20,925 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [13][14] - The SMM alumina price has fallen to 2,787 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts have expanded to 100 yuan per ton. The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [13][14] - Domestic mining recovery is low, and external mining prices have shown slight declines. The market is gradually adjusting to a new trend of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices, with expectations of continued high prices [13][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,365 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. The reference price for industrial silicon is stable at 9,580 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 58,600 yuan per ton, up 1.48% [15] - The market is currently focused on hedging contracts or undelivered previous orders, with industrial silicon showing no clear trend and continuing to oscillate. The exchange has implemented measures to ease volatility in polysilicon [15] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between spot oversupply and warehouse shortages, with no upward driving force for the spot market. However, the lack of significant warehouse registration provides some support for the futures market [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 650 yuan per ton to 95,150 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 650 yuan per ton to 92,650 yuan per ton [16] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene lithium production rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons. December lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons [16] - The market is experiencing resource supply disturbances, with expectations of production recovery weakening, leading to price increases. Even in the off-season, prices may weaken, but downstream stocking intentions are expected to remain strong [16]

有色金属日报 2025-12-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 美国 11 月非农数据好于预期，失业率数据弱于预期，美元指数下探，铜价震荡调整，昨日伦铜 3M 合 约收跌 0.57%至 11619 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 91830 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued the "Shandong Province Red Mud Comprehensive Utilization Action Plan" to promote the reduction, control, and utilization of red mud, aiming for a comprehensive utilization rate of over 18% by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Red Mud Management - Red mud is a key industrial waste generated during alumina production, and Shandong is a major alumina production province with significant red mud generation and storage challenges [1]. - The plan emphasizes a lifecycle management system covering "generation—transportation—utilization—disposal" with a focus on "reduction, resource utilization, and harmlessness" [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The plan encourages alumina production companies to enhance technological upgrades, utilizing big data and artificial intelligence for green and intelligent transformations [1]. - Establishing intelligent production systems with functions for process optimization, dynamic scheduling, and energy consumption management is a key objective [1]. Group 3: Utilization Pathways - Shandong will optimize the "low-cost selection of metal elements from red mud + roadbed, building materials, permeable bricks, and road slope protection" model to expand the scale of existing utilization pathways [2]. - Cities like Zibo, Yantai, Liaocheng, and Binzhou are encouraged to produce various products from red mud, including sintered bricks, non-fired bricks, and permeable bricks, while also exploring its use in construction materials and chemical products [2].

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is expected to face a structural oversupply in 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a continued downward pressure on prices [1][5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the price of caustic soda fell from a peak of 3332 CNY/ton to 2098 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1234 CNY/ton, primarily due to an imbalance between capacity expansion and demand growth [1] - Domestic caustic soda production capacity increased by 210 million tons in 2025, contributing to a long-term oversupply situation [1] - The aluminum oxide industry, which accounts for 30%-40% of caustic soda demand, is expected to add approximately 11 million tons of capacity in 2025, theoretically increasing caustic soda demand by 1.2 million tons, but actual production is limited by bauxite supply constraints [1][2] - In 2026, the planned new capacity for caustic soda is about 2.19 million tons, with total domestic production expected to reach 43.86 million tons [2] - The overall demand growth for caustic soda in 2026 is projected to slow down compared to 2025 [3] Inventory and Market Pressure - By the end of 2025, caustic soda inventories exceeded 3 million tons, indicating a persistent oversupply [1] - In 2026, inventory pressure is expected to increase significantly, with most companies maintaining inventories above 450,000 tons [2] Cost Factors - The cost support for caustic soda prices is weak, with electricity and raw salt being the main cost components, accounting for 50%-60% and 25% respectively [4] - The price of liquid chlorine, which is produced alongside caustic soda, fluctuated between -650 to 275 CNY/ton in 2025, affecting the pricing dynamics of caustic soda [4] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to eliminate outdated capacity, potentially impacting caustic soda supply if effectively implemented [5][6] - The actual execution and impact of this policy remain uncertain, and its development will be crucial for the market in 2026 [5][6]

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]