| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月10日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月9日 | 7月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13950 | 13950 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -ਰੇਟ | -32 | -60 | -171.43% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13850 | 13850 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 非标价差 | -195 | -135 | -60 | -44.44% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.30 | 47.50 | -0.20 | -0.42% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.30 | 54.50 | -0.20 | -0.37% | | | 天然橡胶:胶 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic corporate profits remain under pressure, with capital and risk appetite driving the A-share market's upward fluctuations. The financial sectors such as banks, non-banking financial institutions, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications are expected to lead this trend, with an anticipated increase in risk appetite by late July [3][4][12]. - As of May, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size turned negative year-on-year, and the manufacturing PMI for June was at 49.7, indicating marginal improvement but still below the growth line. Only six industries have seen upward adjustments in profit expectations for 2025, including steel, social services, and media, suggesting that corporate profit growth remains in a bottoming phase [4][12][17]. - The overall profitability indicators, ROA and ROE, remain weak, with banks, steel, and transportation showing relatively better performance [4][12]. Group 2 - Micro liquidity is showing a net inflow trend, with equity mutual funds issuing 272.6 billion units since the beginning of the year, and the margin trading scale has continued to see net inflows since May. Northbound capital saw a significant increase in Q2, with a net inflow of 61.7 billion, compared to 13.5 billion in Q1, particularly in sectors like power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications [5][13]. - The issuance of special government bonds and the recent political meetings are expected to enhance market risk appetite. The path from special bonds to bank capital supplementation and interest rate cuts is clear, benefiting overall macro liquidity [6][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy recommends three main lines: first, sectors like banks and public utilities that represent bond-like characteristics due to weak profits and strong liquidity; second, sectors such as photovoltaics, live pigs, and glass that are expected to benefit from policy negotiations and rising risk appetite; third, sectors like pharmaceuticals and telecommunications that will benefit from incremental capital inflows [7][16]. - The report anticipates that the trade war is likely to settle in the third quarter, with the narrative of "American exceptionalism" potentially returning to market focus, leading to a resurgence of the dollar and U.S. stocks [7][41].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment is to buy the future cash flow generation ability of companies, with Return on Equity (ROE) being a critical indicator of this ability [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of ROE - ROE reflects how much net profit shareholders earn for every unit of equity invested, making it a more reliable measure of profitability than earnings per share [3][4]. - High ROE is preferred, and it should ideally be higher than competitors to indicate better management performance [3][4]. - Long-term evaluation of ROE is essential, with a recommended assessment period of at least five years to gauge a company's true performance [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Examples - Historical data shows that only 6 out of 1000 major U.S. companies had an ROE exceeding 30% over ten years, with 25 companies maintaining an average ROE of 20% without dipping below 15% in any year [4]. - Companies with high ROE often share common traits: low leverage and a focus on core business, leading to sustainable competitive advantages [5][9]. - A statistical analysis of companies with high ROE indicates that 97% of the time, they achieve over 10% annualized returns, with 55% achieving over 20% [8][10]. Group 3: Resilience in Adversity - The white liquor industry has faced numerous crises over the past 30 years, yet companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have managed to capture more market share during downturns [9][10]. - Despite short-term challenges, long-term investments in high ROE companies tend to yield positive returns, as evidenced by historical performance [11][12]. - Current market conditions show that even with low valuations, the ROE of leading companies in the industry remains strong, indicating sustained competitive strength [11][12].

Group 1 - Glass futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the main contract reaching 1070.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.98% [1] - The daily melting capacity of float glass has increased to 158,400 tons, with a total inventory of 69.085 million heavy boxes across sample enterprises, indicating a historically high level [2] - The number of glass futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3 to 799 compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - According to Donghai Futures, the glass daily melting volume has slightly increased week-on-week, but the real estate sector remains weak, leading to a decline in downstream processing orders [4] - Hualian Futures reported that two glass production lines resumed operations and one previously ignited line began production, resulting in a slight recovery in operating rates and weekly output [4] - Despite stable supply, the demand in the off-season is weakening, and while manufacturers' inventory remains high, there is an increasing expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity, which may support market confidence [4]

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月10日 FF FREET F 量剑三(Z0019556) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确也及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下。报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 来到新一轮美国贸易政策谈判窗口期,指数已经突 IF2509 破短期震荡区间上沿,中枢继续上移,但测试关键 IH2509 A股测试关键位置,上方遇阻 股指 IC2507 位置附近需谨慎操作。考虑买入低执行价看跌期权 后卖出高执行价看跌期权,做牛市价差策略。 IM2509 T2509 T2509短期波动区间或在108.8-109.2。单边策 TF2509 国债 资金利率筑底叠加股债跷跷板效应,期债短期或呈窄幅震荡 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 TS2509 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 我感 TL ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that government subsidies stimulated sales in Q2, leading to continued positive revenue growth. The competitive landscape in the small home appliance sector has improved, driving profit recovery, while leading players in the major appliance sector are helping to concentrate market share, suggesting an increase in holdings [2][29]. - The report recommends focusing on two main investment lines: 1) The improvement in the competitive landscape of small home appliances brings profit elasticity, particularly in the vacuum cleaner sector, which has high growth potential and low penetration rates. The kitchen small appliances sector is gradually returning to growth after two years of decline, with a significant increase in sales during the 618 shopping festival [2][29]. - The report indicates that leading brands in the white goods sector are dominating the current price competition, leading to increased industry concentration. The export performance of major appliance manufacturers is expected to gradually recover as uncertainties around tariff policies are clarified [3][31]. Group 2 - The company Salted Fish's differentiated product, the konjac sauce, achieved over 100 million in monthly sales within 16 months, setting a record for the fastest-selling snack product. The konjac snack segment is still in a high-growth phase, supported by a strong supply chain and channel capabilities [7][8]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with its own brand "Mowon," developing localized products based on local tastes, which is expected to drive growth in international markets [8][9]. - The report maintains an "increase holdings" rating for the company, projecting EPS of 2.99, 3.73, and 4.63 for 2025-2027, with a target price of 100.00 yuan based on strong performance in konjac products [7][8].

郑商所玻璃主力合约涨超5%，现报1081元/吨。 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 10 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 元件 沪深300 相关研究报告 特种玻纤布供不应求，国产厂商加速渗透 ——行业深度报告 | 陈蓉芳（分析师） | 张绪成（分析师） | 刘琦（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenrongfang@kysec.cn | zhangxucheng@kysec.cn | liuqi1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524120002 | 证书编号：S0790520020003 | 证书编号：S0790525020001 | AI 发展催化 PCB 和 CCL 迭代，特种玻纤布快速升级且供不应求 AI 服务器和高频高速通信网络系统的快速发展推动对大尺寸、高多层 PCB 和高 频高速覆铜板的需求升级，PCB 及 CCL 迭代速度也逐渐加快，PCB 产品层数增 加，高阶 HDI 应用占比提升，CCL 材料向着低介电常数、低膨胀系数方向发展。 Low-Dk、Low CTE ...

Group 1 - The global borosilicate glass industry has entered a high-quality development stage, driven by its importance in laboratories, industrial applications, and household products [1] - The demand for borosilicate glass is expanding due to its applications in various products such as thermometers, lamp shades, syringes, and baby bottles [1] Group 2 - The global borosilicate glass market is projected to reach approximately $4.4 billion by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] - The North American region is currently the largest market for borosilicate glass, accounting for nearly half of the global market share [4] Group 3 - By 2030, the global borosilicate glass market is expected to grow to $6.5 billion, benefiting from the development of the global pharmaceutical market and increased penetration in developing countries [6] Group 4 - Key trends in the global borosilicate glass industry include the growing importance of emerging markets, the need for sustainable development, and continuous improvement in production processes [10] - Emerging markets are expected to play a significant role in the growth of the borosilicate glass market due to urbanization and rising income levels [10] - Companies are facing stricter environmental regulations and need to invest in cleaner production methods to reduce waste emissions [10] - Industry leaders are innovating production techniques to enhance efficiency and product quality, utilizing advanced technologies such as AI and big data [10]

2025年的商海，比以往任何时候都更像一场迷雾中的远征。 政策调整、市场波动、价格战、利润下滑、技术颠覆层层叠加，该进击还是收缩？该坚守还是转型？无数企业家在"为与不为"的边界上反复挣扎，一步踏 错便是大损失。 面对"无底线内卷"的竞争环境，我们怎样才能在自身和上下游关联方的利益分配上把握平衡？ 面对高昂的人力成本和人才流失的情形，我们怎样才能做到"以人为本"，更好地选人、育人、留人？ 在曹德旺的自传《心若菩提》中，他讲了这样一个故事。 有一次，他的父亲对他说："做事要用心，有多少心就能办多少事。你数一数，有多少个心啊？" "用心、真心、爱心、决心、专心、恒心、耐心、怜悯心……"曹德旺掰着手指头，有那么多心吗？ "当然有。但当你悟到爸爸讲的道理时，爸爸或许已经不在人世了。" 后来随着曹德旺事业的发展，他能够数出来的心，一双手已经容纳不下了，他也悟到了他父亲的那番话。 曹德旺创立的福耀玻璃，现在是当之无愧的全球汽车玻璃行业龙头，全球市场占有率34%，长年稳居世界第一。 2023年，福耀玻璃的营业收入是331.6亿元，同比增长18.02%；净利润56.29亿元，同比增长18.37%，毛利率35.39%，净利率16 ...