《卫报》提到，能源价格高企的影响已初现端倪：2025年数据显示，英国货物贸易表现创下历史最差纪 录。英国货物贸易逆差达2483亿英镑，较上年扩大305亿英镑。英国国家统计局表示，尽管服务贸易顺 差达1920亿英镑，但仅能部分弥合货物贸易逆差的扩大缺口。去年，制造业游说团体"英国制造"曾呼吁 政府提供数百万英镑的额外补贴，以防制造业进一步萎缩。 高昂的能源成本已经导致能源密集型行业（包括化工行业）的工厂关闭或停产，而一些公司为了应对不 断上涨的账单，正在裁员或减少工时。报告还指出，盈利能力疲软使得跨国公司更难证明在英国设立新 生产线的合理性，尤其是在竞争市场提供更便宜能源的情况下。 法新社近日报道说，英国电价如此昂贵，主要是因为超过1/4的电力仍然来自天然气，而天然气价格在 俄乌冲突后飙升。虽然批发价格此后有所下降，但仍处于高位。这些成本最终都转嫁到了用户电费账单 上。在钢铁、化工、玻璃和水泥等高耗能行业，企业纷纷警告称，政府提供的支持不足以维持其竞争 力。 【环球时报特约记者 任重】能源价格高企已成为最令英国工业界头疼的问题之一。据英国《卫报》22 日报道，英国工业联合会和英国能源协会的一份最新报告显示，能源 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 海外模型大厂融资落地，算力链条迎来新动 力 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《地产链有望继续震荡向上》 2026-02-08 《建筑、建材 2025Q4 公募基金持仓 低位回升，持仓集中度有所下降》 2026-02-08 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2026.2.7–2026.2.13，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 2.86%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 0.36%、1.11%，超 额收益分别为 2.50%、1.74%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高频数据：（1）水泥：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-24 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 春节前最后一个交易日螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3055 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.163%）。当 日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比增加 2694 吨。主力合约持仓量为 194.24 万手，环比减少 87095 手。现货市场 方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/ 吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3222 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 332840 吨, 环比增加 34986 吨。主 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - Industrial production has slightly declined, with a small recovery in blast furnace operation rates, which increased by 0.5% week-on-week and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4% [2] - Apparent steel consumption decreased by 5.1% week-on-week and fell by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year to -5.5% [2] - Steel social inventory saw a significant increase, rising by 5.6% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - Cement production showed a slight recovery, but the shipment rate declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.7% and a year-on-year drop of 1.7 percentage points to -7.7% [19] - The cement inventory ratio increased, rising by 2.3% week-on-week and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [19] - The average price of cement decreased by 0.8% week-on-week [19] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Patterns - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% week-on-week but increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -19% [37] - The transaction performance in first-tier and third-tier cities was better than in second-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a week-on-week increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year recovery of 7.2 percentage points to -29.7% [37] - Port cargo throughput and railway freight volume both showed year-on-year increases, with port container throughput rising by 12.0 percentage points to 14.5% [45] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices stable, egg prices rising by 0.1%, and vegetable and fruit prices declining by 3.1% and 0.3% respectively [76] - The industrial product price index decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 3.6% [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - building materials market is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the black - building materials are likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery strength of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For the whole year of 2026, it is still believed that the long - position trend of commodities will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 16,903 tons, with a net decrease of 0 tons compared to the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0295 million lots, a decrease of 34,123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 297,854 tons, an increase of 21,435 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5337 million lots, a decrease of 18,682 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. Strategy Views - The short - term impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel supply - demand pattern is relatively limited, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have a seasonal decline, and the inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils has declined, the production decline is relatively slow, and the inventory has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.07% (- 0.50). The position changed by - 9039 lots to 497,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 854,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.41% [3]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period have declined significantly. Affected by cyclones, the shipments from Australia have dropped sharply, and the shipments of three major Australian mines have decreased significantly. The shipments from Brazil have decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries have remained stable. The near - end arrivals have decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output according to the Steel Union's statistics has increased to 2.3049 million tons. The resumption of blast furnaces is mainly due to the planned resumption after the previous blast furnace overhauls, and at the same time, some blast furnaces in certain regions have started annual overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills has declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years and has decreased month - on - month. Near the Spring Festival, the inventory has accelerated the transfer to the factories, driving up the port clearance volume. The steel mills' procurement rhythm has accelerated, and the imported ore inventory has increased significantly. Overall, overseas shipments are gradually entering the off - season and are declining month - on - month, while pig iron production is in a recovery trend, and there is no obvious marginal contradiction in supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, there is a certain risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and it is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments, the start - up situation of domestic terminal demand after the Spring Festival, and the pig iron production rhythm [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.41% at 5800 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 1.36% at 5500 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. Strategy Views - In the medium - to - long - term, it is still believed that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. In the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals has dragged down the market sentiment. From the perspective of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been reflected in the price. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement with the overhaul and production conversion of some factories. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the direction of the black - building materials sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. Particular attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese - ore segment and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 12, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.31% at 1120.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1547.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1356.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 133 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 82 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.18% at 1664.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 61.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price [11]. Strategy Views - In the short term, although there are many overseas coal - related disturbances with a bullish atmosphere, they have no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking - coal fundamentals. The sharp rise and fall of precious metals have magnified the overall volatility of the coking - coal futures price and put pressure on the market sentiment. In terms of the supply - demand structure, coking coal and coke are gradually becoming more relaxed. Although there is still some restocking by downstream enterprises, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the restocking is coming to an end, and the restocking willingness of downstream steel mills is significantly low. Therefore, the restocking is not expected to form a strong price - driving force. In addition, although the coking - coal futures price often shows abnormal fluctuations, the short - term upward driving force is not strong due to insufficient fundamental support and an unfavorable market - sentiment environment. Considering the current time node, there is a risk of a phased price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal is expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [14][15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8335 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.42% (- 35). The weighted contract position changed by - 7100 lots to 417,094 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 515 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 49015 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.34% (- 165). The weighted contract position changed by - 808 lots to 64,320 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type dense material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day. The average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4235 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: In February, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak. The supply may contract significantly, and the demand is also weak. Although the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve to some extent, the upward driving force is insufficient in the weak commodity - market atmosphere. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment caused by market - sentiment fluctuations [20]. - Polysilicon: In February, the supply of polysilicon continues to decrease, and the silicon - wafer production is expected to remain stable. The high inventory in the silicon - material segment is expected to be slightly reduced. The spot - price game continues, and the market is in a wait - and - see state before the Spring Festival. The polysilicon futures is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the post - festival demand feedback and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1065 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 6). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 12, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million cases, an increase of 2.288 million cases (+ 4.31%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 16,548 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 7627 lots [24]. - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 1.36% (- 16). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.0096 million tons (+ 0.961%). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 756,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 831,600 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders decreased their long positions by 16,540 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 8571 lots [26]. Strategy Views - Glass: Downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage of production, mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and their inventory is generally at a low level. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. However, due to the lack of substantial demand recovery or policy support, the market has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The demand for heavy soda ash remains weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. In the relatively loose supply - demand structure, the market shows a weak and stable oscillation trend. Although the glass demand is expected to remain stable during the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward driving force, and it is expected that the soda - ash price will continue to run weakly. The main - contract reference range is 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - Industrial production has slightly declined, with a small recovery in blast furnace operation rates, which increased by 0.5% week-on-week and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4% [2] - Steel apparent consumption decreased by 5.1% week-on-week and fell by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year to -5.5% [2] - Steel social inventory saw a significant increase, rising by 5.6% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - Cement production showed a slight recovery, but the shipment rate declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.7% and a year-on-year drop of 1.7 percentage points to -7.7% [19] - The cement inventory ratio increased, rising by 2.3% week-on-week and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [19] - The average price of cement decreased by 0.8% week-on-week [19] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Patterns - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% week-on-week but increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -19% [37] - The transaction performance varied by city tier, with first-tier and third-tier cities showing resilience, while second-tier cities experienced weakness [37] - Port cargo throughput and railway freight volume both increased year-on-year, with port container throughput rising by 12.0 percentage points to 14.5% [45] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices stable, egg prices rising by 0.1%, and vegetable and fruit prices declining by 3.1% and 0.3% respectively [76] - The industrial product price index decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 3.6% [85]