文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿 佩璇 报告正文 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产走势分化，建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。 上周（12月28日至01月03日），高炉开工率环比0.7%，同比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%；钢材表观消费环比 0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落，环比-2.5%。 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。 上周（12月28日至01月03日），石化链中，纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同比回落4.3个百分点至-2.4%；PTA开工率环比0.2%、同比回落 1.8个百分点至-8.4%。下游消费链中，涤纶长丝开工率环比0.3%、同比上升0.8个百分点至1.8%；汽车半钢胎开工率环比-2.7%、同比回落2.1个百分点至-9.2%。 图 33: 上周，纯碱开工率同比回落 纯碱开工率 - 2022 · 2024 =2023 ■ 2026 = 另一 2025 100 90 80 70 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月12月 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 图 34: 上周，PTA 开工率同比回落 国内PTA开工率 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纯碱当日行情： 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-06 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3104 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.57%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 154.8351 万手，环比增加 43067 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3248 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 22 元/吨（-0.67%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 129.4526 万手，环比增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

北京市优化调整住房限购政策，《求是》强调地产政策不能采取添油战术 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 周期品方向：反内卷仍是主线。对于水泥及玻璃行业而言，在需求下行的背景下，供给能否有效去化是下 一阶段观察的重点。目前水泥和浮法玻璃的行业平均盈利均已跌落至盈亏平衡线之下，供给端博弈是淡季 的主线。其中，Q1通常是玻璃产能冷修的高峰，冷修减产的幅度将直接决定3-4月份浮法玻璃价格修复的 空间。玻纤板块盈利相对较好，需求端依旧稳步增长，26H1下游如风电等场景对粗纱需求有支撑，而新供 给投放主要在26H2，判断有阶段性提价的可能性。新领域方向：1）电子布。AI供应链的高景气仍是26H1 最有确定性的方向。特种电子布（LowDK一代二代、石英布）需求弹性较大，且短期 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 建筑业 PMI 回升符合季节性规律，值得关注 2026 年 01 月 05 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.12.27–2026.1.2，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅- 1.59%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.59%、-0.33%，超 额收益分别为-1.00%、-1.26%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高频数据：（1）水泥：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为 352.8 元/吨，较上周-1.2 元/吨，较 2024 年同期-53.8 元/吨。较上周价格 持平的地区：长三角地区、泛京津冀地区、华北地区、东北地区、华东 地区、西北地区；较上周价格上涨的地区：两广地区（+5.0 元/吨）、中 南地区（+ ...

宏 2026 年 1 月 5 日 中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 1 周） 假期出行热度较高 证券分析师 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周受元旦假期影响，工业生产季节性调整，新房成交略有 走弱，但线下出行热度提升，元旦假期消费潜力释放。 1. 工业：生产季节性调整。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水泥熟料产能利 用率提升，石油沥青开工率回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造 业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎、全钢胎开工率回落。 2. 地产：本周新房成交略有走弱，受元旦假期影响。1）销售方面，本周（截至 1 月 2 日）30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-33.7%，增速较上周回落 9.6 个百分 点；12 月 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-27.3%，较上月提升 5.8 个百分点。 2）截至 12 月 22 日，近四周二手房出售挂牌价指数环比-0.64%。 3. 内需：元旦假期线下出行热度提升；2025 年 12 月汽车、家电零售及邮政快递 揽收量边际走弱。1）汽车：据乘联会统计，2025 年 12 月 1 ...

交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 1月4日 | 12月31日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): F海 | 15250 | 15250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 | 15250 | -355 | 15605 | 4395.77% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | 14700 | -905 | 15605 | 1724.31% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 51.00 | 50.85 | 0.15 | 0.29% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.20 | 54.70 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 原料:市场主流价:海南 | 13100 | 13000 | 100 | 0.77% | 元/吨 | | 月间价差 | | | | | ...

大众网记者 田甜 枣庄报道 12月31日下午，枣庄市"贸促助企、服务攻坚"赋能企业发展新闻发布会举行。记者从发布会上了解到， 今年1-11月，枣庄市贸促会共签发原产地证书8785份，切实帮助企业享受关税减免。 枣庄市贸促会党组副书记、副会长、二级调研员王洪军，市贸促会党组成员、副会长张冲，市贸促会办 公室主任、四级调研员丁晓蕾出席发布会并回答记者提问。 王洪军介绍说，当前，枣庄正处于产业转型升级，经济高质量发展的关键时期，外贸企业在拓展市场、 产业协同、风险防范等方面面临诸多挑战。为此，枣庄市贸促会聚焦企业发展难点痛点，大力实施"贸 促助企、服务攻坚"系列行动，以精准、多元、专业的服务为企业赋能增效，全力助推全市经济社会高 质量发展。 深入调查研究，精准对接企业需求 精准服务的前提是精准问需，从摸清企情出发，扎实开展大调研活动，为靶向施策、精准赋能发展夯实 基础。开展重点企业深度调研。对近50家进出口龙头、领军企业，开展一对一调研走访，深入征求企业 在对外联络、贸易合作、境外参展、人才培养、技术创新等方面的意见建议。开展行业产业专题座谈。 组织开展纺织、机床机械、玻璃等行业座谈会7次，覆盖企业70余家，采用" ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a clear trend in the upgrade of AI special electronic fabrics, with Low-Dk electronic fabrics being a core material for high-frequency and high-speed PCBs. The demand logic is driven by the growth in AI server volumes, increased usage per server, and enhanced value from material upgrades. The transition to M9 materials in AI PCBs is expected to significantly boost the scale of high-end special electronic fabrics [3][6] - The report outlines three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a notable shift in consumer demand towards renovation, expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030. The African chain emphasizes the undervalued growth potential in the African market, while the AI chain looks at the industrial upgrade of special electronic fabrics [6][4] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The cement market is experiencing a seasonal decline in shipments, with an average shipment rate of 41% among major cement enterprises, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous period. Prices are being maintained in most regions, although some areas are seeing price increases [4][18] - The average national cement price is reported at 358.71 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period but down 61.77 yuan/ton year-on-year [19] Glass Market - The float glass market is showing a weak trend, with prices slightly declining and inventories increasing. The average national glass price is 61.64 yuan per weight box, down 0.35 yuan from the previous period and down 12.98 yuan year-on-year [33][30] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 216 out of 265 production lines operational, and a daily melting capacity of 154,105 tons, which is a reduction of 900 tons from the previous week [30][32] Special Electronic Fabrics - The report emphasizes the significant upgrade trend in Low-Dk electronic fabrics, with expected total demand for Low-Dk electronic fabrics projected at approximately 110 million meters in 2025, 220 million meters in 2026, and 320 million meters in 2027. The demand for Low-Dk second-generation fabrics is expected to reach 60 million meters in 2026 and 130 million meters in 2027 [3][6] Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. It recommends companies such as Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong for their optimal business models and growth potential [6][4]