智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，25Q2全A/全A非金融业绩温和回落，整体维持正增。宽基指 数来看，成长盈利增速回落，价值企稳，成长盈利增速仍领先价值。大小盘盈利增速分化小幅扩大，大 盘领先小盘。此外，25Q2过半行业盈利正增长，电子、电新、有色盈利贡献最大。当下，基于二季度 以及下半年GDP的稳定增速以及年内通胀的积极变化，判断24Q4即有望成为上市公司业绩拐点，并已 从今年开启盈利的上行周期，小幅上修对全年业绩增速的预测。 华创证券主要观点如下： 2025Q2全A/全A非金融归母净利润单季同比1.3%/-2.1%，较25Q13.7%/4.5%小幅回落 宽基指数来看，成长盈利增速回落，价值企稳，成长盈利增速仍领先价值。创业板指25Q2归母净利润 累计同比13.4%，较25Q119.9%回落；25Q2上证50归母净利润累计同比0.5%，较25Q1-0.2%企稳回升， 创业板指-上证50盈利增速差由20.1pct收窄至13pct，成长风格盈利增速优势仍在。 大小盘盈利增速分化小幅扩大，大盘领先小盘。沪深30025Q2归母净利润累计同比2.5%，较25Q13.3% 小幅回落；国证200025Q2归母净利润 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while revenue growth for listed companies improved in Q2, profit growth declined, reflecting a macroeconomic trend of "exchanging price for volume" [1] - It is anticipated that prices will moderately recover in the second half of the year, supporting stable profit levels for listed companies [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Trends - In the first half of the year, overseas revenue for listed companies significantly outperformed overall revenue, driven by China's continued export growth and the acceleration of Chinese enterprises going abroad due to tariff conditions [1] - The external demand is expected to remain resilient in the second half, with export-oriented and overseas enterprises likely to maintain a high level of prosperity [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Industry Performance - Capital expenditure in industries such as electric new energy, machinery, and chemicals continued to decline in the first half of the year, while the automotive sector saw a counter-cyclical rebound [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate supply-side adjustments in the future [1] Group 3: Wage Trends and Sector Performance - The average salary growth for listed companies slightly declined in the first half of the year, with industries such as military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and consumer services showing higher growth rates [1]

Group 1 - The revenue growth rate of listed companies improved in Q2, but profit growth rate declined, reflecting the macroeconomic characteristic of "exchanging price for volume" [1] - It is expected that prices will moderately rebound in the second half of the year, supporting stable profit levels for listed companies [1] - The overseas revenue of listed companies significantly outperformed overall revenue in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected exports and accelerated overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises due to tariff conditions [1] Group 2 - External demand is expected to remain resilient in the second half of the year, with export-oriented and overseas expansion companies likely to maintain high levels of prosperity [1] - Capital expenditure of listed companies continued to decline in the first half of the year, particularly in the electric, machinery, and chemical industries, while the automotive sector saw a counter-cyclical rebound [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate supply-side adjustments in the future [1] Group 3 - The average salary growth rate of listed companies slightly declined in the first half of the year, with industries such as military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and consumer services showing higher growth rates [1]

2025 年 8 月 28 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 重点交流 【海外 TMT】精密线缆解决方案商，立讯控股赋能"数据中心+汽车"业务发展—— 汇聚科技（1729.HK）首次覆盖报告(买入) 汇聚科技是定制电线互连方案供应商，立讯精密是控股股东。基于：1）AI 算力维持 景气度，公司数据中心电线组件、特种线缆、服务器 ODM 业务收入持续高速增长； 2）汽车智能化趋势推动汽车线缆需求高速增长，Leoni K 与公司汽车线束相关业务 有望持续发挥渠道、技术等协同效应。我们认为公司具备一定的标的稀缺性和溢价空 间，首次覆盖，给予汇聚科技"买入"评级。 总量研究 【宏观】"反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评 7 月受利润率改善推动，工业企业利润同比降幅继续收窄。结构上，原材料行业利润 同比增速大幅反弹，主要受益于"反内卷"政策推动原材料价格上涨。当前随着"反 内卷"政策逐步落地，对于投资端调控、治理低价无序竞争的效果陆续显现，制造业 利润率迎来好转，未来随着市场供需关系的逐步调节，企业将陆续摆脱"以价换量" 局面，企业盈利也将迎来曙光。 行业研究 【建筑】周观点：上海发布楼市新政 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.2% [1] - Sectors such as AI data, Huawei concepts, and cloud computing saw significant gains [1] Institutional Insights - Zheshang Securities suggests adopting a bullish mindset for the medium term, focusing on balanced allocation in large financials and broad technology sectors [1] - The firm indicates that the market is currently in a "main rising wave 3" phase, with no clear signs of stopping the slow but steady upward momentum [1] - They recommend increasing attention to previously lagging sectors like real estate and actively identifying low-position stocks within sectors [1] Future Market Expectations - Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates that the market will maintain strength until early September, with limited correction expected afterward [2] - The firm emphasizes that a comprehensive bull market requires further accumulation of positive factors, including improvements in the fundamental outlook by 2026 [2] - The focus may shift from short-term momentum to mid-term projections post-September, with particular attention on innovative pharmaceuticals and computing power as key opportunities [2] Short-term Market Trends - Dongfang Securities predicts a steady upward trend in the short term, while closely monitoring policy, capital, and external market changes [3] - The firm suggests investment opportunities in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, food and beverages, real estate, and aerospace [3]

Core Viewpoints - The current market trend is likely to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern rather than replicating the "fast bull" market of 2015, due to differences in macroeconomic narratives and liquidity conditions [1][10][29] - The investment strategy under the "slow bull" framework suggests a balanced approach, favoring "big finance + broad technology" sectors, with a focus on banks, non-bank financials, and technology growth areas such as military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [1][31] Section Summaries 1. Fast Bull Market of 2014-2015 - Major narratives such as "Belt and Road," state-owned enterprise reform, and "Internet Plus" significantly propelled the index during the fast bull market [2][10] - Macro liquidity was enhanced through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with R007 20MA dropping from 5.4% in January 2014 to approximately 2.5% by June 2015 [2][13] - Margin trading and financing saw rapid inflow, with the combined margin balance reaching 9.3% of the total A-share market capitalization by June 2015, indicating a strong liquidity environment [3][17] - The influx of off-market financing through systems like HOMS contributed significantly to market liquidity, with nearly 500 billion yuan flowing into the stock market by mid-2015 [4][25] 2. Current Slow Bull Market Since 2024 - The current market lacks the robust macro narratives seen in 2014-2015, with emerging themes like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals not matching the previous scale [29] - Current liquidity conditions are less favorable, with the reserve requirement ratio and R007 20MA at lower levels, limiting further downward adjustments [29] - The inflow speed of margin trading and financing is slower compared to the previous bull market, with combined balances only reaching 5.0% of the total A-share market capitalization by mid-2025 [3][30] - The absence of significant off-market financing mechanisms, similar to those in 2015, further constrains the potential for a fast bull market [29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy focusing on "big finance + broad technology," suggesting that this combination is likely to outperform the benchmark [1][31] - There is an emphasis on sectors that have previously underperformed, such as real estate, which may present opportunities for catch-up growth [1][31]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market continues to rise, with the major indices showing signs of acceleration, and the overall index performance is broad-based [1][54] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 2021 high of 3731 points and is now above 3800 points, with the next medium-term target potentially challenging the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the largest decline since 2015 [1][4] - The recommendation is to moderately ignore short-term fluctuations and increase both short-term and medium-term allocations near key support levels such as the 20-day and 60-day moving averages [1][5] Market Overview - During the week of August 18 to August 22, 2025, major indices collectively rose, with the STAR Market 50 leading the gains [2][12] - The TMT sectors (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) showed strong performance, while cyclical sectors lagged behind [2][14] - Market sentiment improved with a significant increase in trading volume, and most stock index futures contracts were in contango [2][21] - The margin trading balance increased significantly, while the proportion of financing purchases slightly decreased, indicating a mixed flow of funds [2][28] Sector Performance - The TMT sectors led the market, with telecommunications, electronics, computers, and media rising by 10.47%, 9.00%, 7.80%, and 5.82% respectively, reflecting a high risk appetite in the current market [14][55] - In contrast, cyclical sectors such as real estate, construction, and materials showed weaker performance, with modest gains [14][55] Future Market Outlook - The outlook remains positive as the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through significant resistance levels, with the potential for further gains [4][53] - The market is characterized by a "systematic slow bull" trend, suggesting that investors should focus on medium to long-term strategies rather than short-term trading [4][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced allocation between large financials and broad technology sectors, while also paying attention to previously lagging sectors like real estate [5][57]

Group 1 - The report highlights the formation of a new global trade framework in the "post-tariff" era, emphasizing the reduction of trade deficits and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. as key objectives of the Trump administration [4][6][25] - The average rate of the new "reciprocal tariffs" is approximately 20%, down from 29% in April, indicating a narrowing of differences among various economies [7][14] - The report constructs a quantitative assessment framework based on three dimensions: price elasticity, share resilience, and capacity elasticity, to analyze the competitive advantages and challenges faced by Chinese manufacturing [4][8] Group 2 - Chinese manufacturing maintains a price advantage, with most products showing a price advantage concentrated in the 0%-75% range, suggesting that even under extreme assumptions of tariff costs, many products still hold competitive pricing [8][10] - The resilience of market share is crucial, as certain products like small appliances and air conditioners exhibit both price advantages and strong market shares, indicating higher demand resilience [8][10] - The report notes that while tariff risks cannot be completely eliminated, the globalization of supply chains is mitigating some of these risks, particularly in key manufacturing sectors [9][10] Group 3 - Certain core products from Chinese manufacturing are expected to maintain strong export competitiveness despite current tariff conditions, with specific categories like electronics and home appliances showing notable resilience [10][22] - The report emphasizes that U.S. importers may find it less cost-effective to switch suppliers in the short term, as the overall impact of tariffs on exports is lower than anticipated [10][22] - The analysis suggests that the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff adjustments will continue to shape the competitive landscape for Chinese manufacturing in the global market [25]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a "systematic slow bull" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 2024 high of 3674, indicating a potential target of 3731, the peak of the 2021 structural bull market [1][4][57] - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology" sectors, suggesting to increase short and medium-term positions near key support levels [1][5][58] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices recorded positive returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.70%, and the ChiNext Index showing a significant increase of 8.58% [12][55] - The financial and technology sectors are driving market performance, with comprehensive financial and non-bank financial sectors rising by 7.07% and 6.57% respectively [15][55] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with a 3.79% increase, while the red-chip style weakened, with banks dropping by 3.22% [56] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.08 trillion yuan, up from 1.68 trillion yuan the previous week [23] - The margin trading balance rose to 2.05 trillion yuan, with a financing buy-in ratio of 10.6% [30] - The medical ETF saw the highest net inflow of 1.42 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 2.38 billion yuan [30] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market include the suspension of the 24% tariff by the US and China for 90 days, and the introduction of "dual interest subsidy" policies to support consumer markets [3][51][55] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mild recovery, indicating signs of demand-side improvement [55] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to target 3731, while emphasizing the importance of key support levels at the 20-day and 60-day moving averages [4][57] - The "systematic slow bull" nature of the current market suggests that sectors that are relatively undervalued will eventually be validated [57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology," while also increasing attention to previously lagging sectors like real estate [5][58] - Investors are advised to avoid short-term trading strategies that could lead to missed opportunities and instead focus on building positions near key support levels [5][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures present expanding growth opportunities, with a suggestion to over - allocate small - cap growth styles and hold IM. Stock index options should adopt an offensive strategy, switching to a bull spread portfolio. Treasury bond futures remain under pressure and require caution [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contracts are - 6.51 points, - 1.50 points, - 23.56 points, - 18.34 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.66 points, 2.68 points, 0.54 points, 9.59 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, IM are 11.2 points, - 1.0 point, 69.4 points, 74.4 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.4 points, - 0.6 point, - 3.0 points, - 0.8 point. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM change by 14212 lots, 6800 lots, 9202 lots, 25544 lots. - The market remained strong on Monday, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index rising nearly 2%. The market volume approached 1.9 trillion. The new energy and computer sectors led the gains. The market focus is on the growth area, showing signs of partial spread, and the trend of capital reallocation is clear. It is recommended to over - allocate small - cap growth styles, and IM is preferred among stock index futures. Potential observation windows are the earnings season in August and the parade in early September [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The market turnover increased by 40.41%, and the PCR of the CSI 1000 stock index option positions increased by 6.15%. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 stock index option increased significantly. The market trading sentiment is active, and call options are entering the market. It is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [6] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 76606 lots, 56309 lots, 34103 lots, 111356 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 17352 lots, 7436 lots, 7715 lots, 22612 lots. The positions are 157180 lots, 108276 lots, 78794 lots, 92576 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 8769 lots, - 3629 lots, - 3287 lots, - 1193 lots. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, TL are 0.105 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, - 0.038 yuan, 0.430 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0, 0.010 yuan, 0.014 yuan, 0.060 yuan. The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, T*3 - TL's current - quarter contracts are 102.975 yuan, 98.993 yuan, 300.961 yuan, 206.885 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.285 yuan. The basis of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 0.001 yuan, 0.020 yuan, 0.019 yuan, 0.150 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.039 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, 0.002 yuan, - 0.063 yuan. - The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 5448 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The rise in risk appetite and the strengthening of commodities may pressure the bond market. The tightening of the capital market also had a negative impact on the bond market. Although the bond market has shown some recovery, the bullish sentiment is unstable, and policy factors may cause significant disturbances. Trend strategy: be cautiously bearish. Hedging strategy: focus on short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: the arbitrage space of the main contracts may be limited. Curve strategy: focus on steepening the yield curve [7][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The calendar includes economic indicators such as China's July M2 money supply annual rate, new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to July, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to July, as well as the US July CPI annual rate and PPI annual rate, and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the field of artificial intelligence and agriculture, a research team proposed the concept of crop - robot collaborative design, developed an intelligent breeding robot, and established an "intelligent robot breeding factory", which is expected to break through the bottleneck of soybean hybrid breeding. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions. - Hangzhou solicited public opinions on a draft regulation to promote the development of the embodied intelligent robot industry, including infrastructure planning, core technology direction, and platform construction [11][12][13]