Macro News - The People's Bank of China released the monetary policy execution report for Q2 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration [2][4] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visit by Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, to India for the 24th meeting on the China-India border issue [2] - Yang Jiaohong, former director of the Securities Regulatory Commission's issuance supervision department, was expelled from the Party for corruption related to stock subscriptions [2] Industry News - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman stated intentions to invest tens of trillions of dollars in infrastructure for AI services [3][4] - The Shenzhou 20 crew successfully completed a spacewalk with assistance from the "Wukong AI" model, marking a new development in space operations [3] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation announced a significant breakthrough in the Sichuan-Chongqing natural gas base, with newly confirmed geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [3] - The first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation control indicators for 2025 has been issued to the China Rare Earth Group and Northern Rare Earth, with expectations that future indicators may not be publicly disclosed [3] Company News - China Shenhua announced plans to purchase assets from the State Energy Group and Western Energy, with stock resuming trading [7] - Huahong Semiconductor announced plans to acquire Huali Micro's equity to resolve industry competition issues, leading to stock suspension [8] - Shengyi Technology reported a 52.98% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year and plans to distribute dividends [10] - Copper Crown Copper Foil reported a net profit of 34.95 million yuan in the first half of the year, marking a turnaround from losses [10] - BiYing Technology announced a 452% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year and plans to invest approximately 1.9 billion yuan in a smart manufacturing project [10]

Economic Overview - External conditions have improved while internal data has weakened, with inflation (PPI) down 3.6% year-on-year, below market expectations[22] - New loans in July turned negative at -426.3 billion CNY, indicating weakened credit demand from both households and enterprises[22] - Retail sales growth fell from 4.8% in June to 3.7% in July, and fixed asset investment growth dropped to 1.6% year-on-year for January to July[22] Real Estate Market - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline deepening from 0.7% to 1.0%, while second and third-tier cities maintained a decline of 0.5%[23] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.75% (+5.4bp) and the 30-year yield at 2.00% (+7.3bp)[12] - The market is experiencing a bearish sentiment, with institutions increasingly shorting bonds amid high risk aversion[30] Investment Strategies - The bond market may face three scenarios: potential monetary easing by the central bank, a stock market correction undermining risk appetite, or continued high risk preference leading to a revaluation of bonds[35] - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as a psychological threshold at 1.75%, with a potential for a sharp rise if breached[36] Financial Products and Performance - The scale of wealth management products decreased by 120.6 billion CNY to 31.20 trillion CNY, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards equities[39] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns increased to 6.73%, indicating rising risk in the sector[45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is set to acquire nearly 100 billion yuan worth of assets from its controlling shareholder, which includes coal, coal power, and coal chemical assets, while also planning a profit distribution of no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The acquisition will significantly enhance the company's coal resource volume and production capacity, with the potential to increase its current production capacity by 74.5% and construction capacity by 125% [3][4]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated at 48.01 billion yuan, 49.37 billion yuan, and 49.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.42 yuan, 2.48 yuan, and 2.50 yuan [4][5]. - The company's revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 to 318.24 billion yuan, before recovering in subsequent years [5][11]. Asset Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves 13 target companies, with total assets amounting to 258.36 billion yuan and net assets of 93.89 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The target assets include several large coal mines, which will significantly boost the company's coal production capabilities [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant movements in the U.S. stock market, particularly the decline of major indices and the rise of pharmaceutical stocks due to proposed tariffs on imported drugs by President Trump [1][5][4] Group 2 - On August 5, the U.S. stock market saw all three major indices decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.14% to 44,111.74 points, the S&P 500 down 0.49% to 6,299.19 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 0.65% to 20,916.55 points [2] - The ISM reported that the U.S. services PMI for July was 50.1, below market expectations of 51.5 and the previous month's 50.8, indicating near stagnation in service sector growth [2] - Employment indicators within the services sector fell from 47.2 to 46.4, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began [2] - The prices for materials and services surged to 69.9, the highest since October 2022 [2] Group 3 - Pharmaceutical stocks experienced notable gains, with Pfizer rising over 5% and UnitedHealth Group increasing by over 4% following Trump's announcement regarding tariffs on imported drugs [5][4] - Trump indicated that the initial tariffs would be small, but could rise to 150% within a year and potentially reach 250% thereafter, aiming to encourage domestic drug production [5][4] Group 4 - The European Union announced a suspension of planned retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., originally set to take effect on August 7, while still retaining the option to reinstate them [7] - EU officials expressed dissatisfaction with the recent trade agreement with the U.S., suggesting that the EU should adopt a firmer stance [8]

Market Overview - The Chinese stock market is expected to reach new highs, with continued optimism in financial, growth, and certain cyclical sectors [1][12] - The US stock indices experienced their largest gains since May 27, driven by investor buying on dips and speculation about a potential interest rate cut in September [4][12] - Major technology stocks showed strong performance, with Nvidia up 3.6%, Meta up 3.5%, and Google up 3.1% [4] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China reported a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan through MLF and 200 billion yuan through reverse repos [5] - In July, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% [5] Company Announcements - Aowei New Materials announced that its stock will resume trading on August 5, 2025, with no significant changes in its fundamentals [8] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation plans to absorb China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Company, which may lead to the latter's stock being delisted [9][10] - Kweichow Moutai reported a total share buyback of 3.45 million shares, amounting to 5.301 billion yuan [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform - Maintained" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US non - farm data is weak, and the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has increased. The Fed's internal disagreement on interest rate cuts has intensified, and the US economic outlook is not optimistic due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand, low corporate investment willingness, and trade policy uncertainties [1][2] - In the context of increasing divergence in Fed policies, differentiated economic data, and falling interest rates, the short - term risk - aversion sentiment in the US bond market has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain medium - and short - duration US dollar bonds as the core allocation [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [14][22][24] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The US GDP grew by 3% year - on - year in Q2, but there are hidden dangers. Private consumption growth was only 0.98%, corporate investment showed negative growth, net exports were mainly due to reduced imports, government contribution was almost zero, and inflation pressure persisted [2] - The July non - farm employment data was far lower than expected, with new employment dropping to 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the previous values were significantly revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year hourly wage increase rose to 3.9% [3] Exchange Rates - The report shows figures on the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost change of the US dollar against the RMB [60][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - Figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, US - EU comprehensive US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and the price trends of global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, as well as the two - week return comparison of the global bond market [67][71][73] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [90][84][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 downgrades, 3 rating revocations, and 3 initial ratings [93]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - The report recommends 10 stocks and 3 ETFs based on a top-down approach for August allocation [1] - Lu'an Huanneng is highlighted for its high spot coal ratio, significant earnings elasticity, and low PB valuation [1][8] - Huayou Cobalt benefits from integrated layout advantages, stable incremental profit from wet nickel production, and a significant decrease in cobalt imports in June [1][8] - Geely Automobile's privatization of Zeekr will enhance resource integration and decision-making efficiency, with an adjusted annual sales target of 3 million vehicles [2][8] - Cambrian is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI chips and has plans for hardware and software platform development [2][8] - SMIC is advancing in domestic computing capabilities with improved yield rates and is expected to benefit from the semiconductor cycle [2][8] - North Navigation is a leader in the long-range fire industry, experiencing rapid demand recovery and implementing stock incentives [3][8] - Shengquan Group is a leading supplier in high-frequency resin, expected to see rapid growth due to PCB industry demand [3][8] - CITIC Securities is well-positioned in the financial sector with a solid market position and ample IPO reserves [3][8] - Jiao You International focuses on cross-border mineral logistics, particularly in Africa, ensuring efficient and secure transportation [3][8] - China Jinmao has made significant impairment provisions and is on track to meet its sales target [4][8] Group 2: ETF Recommendations - Recommended ETFs include Military Industry ETF, TMT ETF, and Chemical ETF, reflecting sectoral strengths [4][10] - The Military Industry ETF has a total net value of 171.45 billion yuan with a year-to-date growth rate of 14.33% [10] - The TMT ETF shows a year-to-date growth rate of 12.27% and a total net value of 5.02 billion yuan [10] - The Chemical ETF has a total net value of 33.81 billion yuan with a growth rate of 9.22% [10] Group 3: Financial Data Highlights - Lu'an Huanneng's EPS is projected to be 0.65 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 23 [9] - Huayou Cobalt's EPS is expected to rise to 3.11 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15 [9] - Geely Automobile's EPS is forecasted at 1.61 yuan in 2025, maintaining a PE ratio of 11 [9] - Cambrian is projected to have an EPS of 3.04 yuan in 2025, with a high PE ratio of 234 [9] - SMIC's EPS is expected to reach 0.64 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 144 [9] - North Navigation's EPS is projected at 0.17 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 104 [9] - Shengquan Group's EPS is expected to be 1.53 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 21 [9] - CITIC Securities is projected to have an EPS of 1.56 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19 [9] - Jiao You International's EPS is expected to be 1.49 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8 [9] - China Jinmao's EPS is projected at 0.12 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 11 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]

Group 1 - The provincial governor Zhao Gang emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions during his visits to Shaanxi, focusing on the "three rural issues" and promoting the revitalization of revolutionary old areas [1] - Zhao Gang visited various agricultural demonstration bases and highlighted the need for efficient dry farming and water-saving agriculture to enhance agricultural productivity in arid regions [2] - The governor underscored the role of grassroots party organizations in improving community services and developing collective economies, aiming to foster a prosperous rural environment [2] Group 2 - Zhao Gang stressed the importance of advancing energy projects, ensuring stable gas supply to meet regional industrial and residential needs [3] - The governor inquired about the production capacity and processes of the gas field project, advocating for enhanced safety and green production to support national energy security [3] - He also highlighted the significance of water conservancy projects and the need for effective resettlement measures to ensure smooth project progress [3]