1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has recovered, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Experiencing minor fluctuations [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories are supporting prices [2]. - Tin: The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan [2]. - Aluminum: Showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventories are accumulating, conflicting with risks in Indonesia, resulting in low - level fluctuations [2]. - Stainless Steel: Lacking upward momentum, but also with limited downside potential [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Price Movements**: - Gold:沪金2512昨日收盘价945.76，日跌幅 - 0.33%，夜盘收盘价963.32，夜盘涨幅1.78%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价4201.40，日涨幅1.65% [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日收盘价12073，日涨幅1.65%，夜盘收盘价12508.00，夜盘涨幅4.81%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价53.230，日涨幅4.22% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金25122510昨日成交260,377，较前日减少21,972；持仓124,540，较前日减少6,505；Comex黄金2512成交278,020，较前日增加38,441；持仓278,065，较前日减少13,785 [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日成交101,561，较前日增加31,704；持仓88,600，较前日减少5,753；Comex白银2512成交155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓122,583，较前日无变化 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: - Gold: Comex黄金（金衡盎司，前日）库存37,575,140，较前日减少154,316 [4]. - Silver: Comex白银（金衡盎司，前日）库存478,558,059，较前日减少546,636 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [6]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Movements**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价86,840，日涨幅0.24%，夜盘收盘价87430，夜盘涨幅0.68%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价10,897，日涨幅0.53% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数昨日成交159,202，较前日增加2,758；持仓552,936，较前日减少173；伦铜3M电子盘成交19,884，较前日增加6,498；持仓319,000，较前日减少5,408 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铜期货库存44,088，较前日增加1,124；伦铜库存136,250，较前日无变化 [8]. - Spread: LME铜升贴水较前日变动 - 6.43；上海铜现货对LMEcash价差较前日增加72 [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price Movements**:沪锌主力收盘价22680，涨幅0.02%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3069，跌幅 - 0.53% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量71426，较前日减少10276；持仓量105905，较前日减少1570；伦锌成交量9073，较前日减少844；持仓量220862，较前日增加946 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锌期货库存70890，较前日增加372；LME锌库存35875，较前日增加575 [11]. - Spread: ZN00 - ZN01较前日变动15 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. 3.4 Lead - **Price Movements**:沪铅主力收盘价17660，涨幅1.26%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2067，涨幅0.51% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量55843，较前日增加24988；持仓量50539，较前日减少4568；伦铅成交量8189，较前日减少1092；持仓量155924，较前日增加2283 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铅期货库存24686，较前日增加917；LME铅库存225225，较前日减少1500 [14]. - Spread: PB00 - PB01较前日变动 - 15 [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price Movements**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价292,440，日涨幅1.48%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价37,405，日涨幅1.93% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约昨日成交124,419，较前日增加74,980；持仓40,779，较前日增加4,387；伦锡3M电子盘成交180，较前日减少9；持仓13,988，较前日增加53 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锡期货库存5,446，较前日减少136；伦锡库存3,055，较前日增加40 [17]. - Spread: SMM 1锡锭价格较前日增加1,500；长江有色1锡平均价较前日增加4,300 [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约收盘价21880；LME铝3M收盘价2880 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2821 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约收盘价21245 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约成交量223798；持仓量420066 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约成交量267963；持仓量412758 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约成交量6280；持仓量15573 [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Aluminum: LME注销仓单占比6.19%；LME铝cash - 3M价差 - 23.69 [21]. - Alumina: No significant spread data mentioned [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:近月合约对连一合约价差 - 235.00 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a trend intensity of 1, while alumina has a trend intensity of 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: - Nickel:沪镍主力收盘价118,710；1进口镍119,000 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力收盘价12,425 [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Nickel:沪镍主力成交量98,248 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力成交量139,703 [24]. - **Industry - related Data**: - Nickel: 8 - 12%高镍生铁（出厂价）909；镍板进口利润 - 1,577 [24]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B卷 - 毛边（无锡）宏旺/北部湾12,825 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report offers a daily morning observation of the non - ferrous metals market, analyzing the market trends, important information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies of various non - ferrous metals such as precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.05% at $3977.17/ounce, London silver closed up 0.03% at $48.01/ounce. The US dollar index closed down 0.45% at 99.67, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.088%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 7.1188 [8]. - **Important Information**: Trump won't announce new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case. The US House Speaker is less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. The US included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list. US private employment data shows a weak labor market. Fed officials have different views on December rate cuts [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple Fed officials are cautious about December rate cuts, pressuring precious metals. But risks like the government shutdown, tariff debates, and labor market risks support prices. So, precious metals are expected to continue adjusting [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use a band - trading approach for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2512 contract rose 0.33% to 85690 yuan/ton, and the LME copper closed down 0.43% at $10684/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [12]. - **Important Information**: The US included copper in the critical minerals list. The Fed's December rate - cut direction is unclear. Chinese copper inventories have been rising for 5 weeks. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term US government shutdown causes liquidity concerns. Copper supply remains tight, but non - US supply pressure eases. High copper prices reduce demand, and domestic inventories increase [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold cross - market long positions and exit when the export window opens; wait and see for options [13][14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell 6 yuan to 2774 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes [17]. - **Important Information**: Australia sold 30,000 tons of alumina at $320/ton FOB. National alumina inventories increased. Some projects in Guinea and China are in progress [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply still exceeds demand. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts haven't happened, and imports and new projects put pressure on prices [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect narrow - range bottom - grinding for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21630 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. - **Important Information**: US companies' October lay - offs reached a 20 - year high. US ADP employment in October increased. Chinese aluminum ingot inventories decreased. A US aluminum smelter cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data improved the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut. The supply - demand of aluminum remains tight, with overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; consider going long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage; wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract remained flat at 20910 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Similar to electrolytic aluminum, including US lay - offs, ADP employment data, and TGA balance changes. The industry's theoretical profit increased [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data eased market concerns. Supply shortages and rising raw material costs support prices, and demand is improving [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.11% to $3051/ton, and the SHFE zinc 2512 rose 0.15% to 22630 yuan/ton. Shanghai zinc inventories decreased [29]. - **Important Information**: SMM seven - region zinc inventories decreased [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are falling, leading to potential production cuts. The export window is open, but new production and export volume are uncertain [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold the strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc for arbitrage; wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.84% to $2036.5/ton, and the SHFE lead 2512 fell 0.23% to 17405 yuan/ton. Spot prices fell, and downstream buying improved [33]. - **Important Information**: SMM five - region lead inventories increased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - storage enterprises cut production due to high prices and high dealer inventories. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose to $15055/ton, and the inventory decreased to 253104 tons [36]. - **Important Information**: Indonesia restricted new smelting licenses and cracked down on illegal nickel mining [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventories remain high, indicating loose supply - demand. Cost support may weaken in December, and nickel prices will fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a downward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle option for the 2512 contract [37][39]. Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A South Korean stainless - steel factory suspended operations due to a gas leak. National stainless - steel inventories increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand is weak, and the supply of cold - rolled products is sufficient. Cost support is weak, and the price trend is downward [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Angola was completed [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, demand for industrial silicon decreased, and some factories stopped production. Supply - demand is basically balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; conduct a long - spread strategy for Si2512 and Si2601 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [44]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on coal - new energy integration [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, polysilicon supply and demand both decreased, with supply decreasing more. Without new positive news, the price is weak in the short term [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction for single - side trading; conduct a reverse - spread strategy for far - month contracts; no option strategy [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A mining right in Jiangxi was under public notice. Chile's lithium carbonate exports increased in October [46][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: This week's production increased, and inventory decreased. But lithium concentrate arrivals and potential production resumptions will pressure prices in the future [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Tin - **Market Review**: The SHFE tin 2512 rose 0.11% to 283100 yuan/ton, and LME tin inventories increased [50]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on rate cuts. Yunnan over - achieved its tin exploration target. A company's tin production decreased. An electronics company's export situation changed [50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Fed officials' rate - cut views differ. Tin mining supply is tight, and production recovery may be delayed. Demand recovers slowly [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect high - level fluctuations for single - side trading; wait and see for options [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - **Related Information**: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - **Trading Logic**: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - **Related Information**: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - **Related Information**: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - **Important Information**: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - **Important Information**: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - **Related Information**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - **Logic Analysis**: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - **Strategy Suggestion**: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - **Logic Analysis**: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - **Important Information**: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals released on October 22, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals such as copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For copper, the macro - level risk aversion cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, the terminal consumption is weak, and the strategy is to go long on dips cautiously [4][6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the price may rebound after the short - position reduction, with a focus on the implementation of the production - reduction expectation [15][16]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro logic is the main driving factor, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [22][23]. - For casting aluminum alloy, the macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [31][32]. - For zinc, the overseas low - inventory situation supports the LME price, and the domestic price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and go short on rallies [37][40]. - For lead, the downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions and add short on rallies [44]. - For nickel, the macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range [50][51]. - For stainless steel, the price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57][58]. - For tin, the Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the price may oscillate around the integer mark [63][65]. - For industrial silicon, it is weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction [70]. - For polycrystalline silicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [75][78]. - For lithium carbonate, the inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price oscillates strongly [83][84]. Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 85,420 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the index position decreased by 3,950 lots to 532,700 lots. The spot price had different changes in different regions [2][3]. - **Important Information**: European leaders supported a cease - fire, China's import of anode copper decreased in September 2025, and the import of scrap copper ingots increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, and the terminal consumption is weak [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and be cautious about chasing highs; hold the inter - market positive spread and arrange the inter - period positive spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline; wait and see for options [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 34 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 7,177 lots to 468,900 lots. The spot price decreased in different regions [9]. - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises tendered for alumina, some alumina enterprises carried out maintenance or production reduction, and China's alumina import and export data changed in September 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the production - reduction scale is expected to expand in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounds from the low due to the supply inflection point in the short term; wait and see for spreads and options [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 21,045 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 25,548 lots to 517,200 lots. The spot price rose in some regions [19]. - **Related Information**: The Russia - US meeting was in a deadlock, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and some overseas aluminum plants had production - reduction situations [19][20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro logic is the main driving factor, and overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads and options [23][24][25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 20,515 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions and rose slightly in the southwest [27]. - **Related Information**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data of un - wrought aluminum alloy changed in September 2025 [28][30]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is restricted by high social inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips with the aluminum price, and the medium - term strong - oscillation trend remains unchanged; wait and see for spreads and options [32][33]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.18% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 299 lots to 229,800 lots. The spot trading was weak [35]. - **Related Information**: The LME zinc market had a rare spot shortage on October 21 [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic price is under pressure, the overseas price is supported, and the export window is open [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; wait and see for spreads and options [40]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.03% to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,744 lots to 88,600 lots. The electrolytic lead supply was scarce [42]. - **Related Information**: Environmental protection measures affected the transportation in Hebei, and a small - scale regenerative lead smelter adjusted its production strategy [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the short position and add short on rallies; wait and see for spreads and options [44]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 130 to 121,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 660 lots. The spot premium had different changes [46][47][49]. - **Important Information**: China's nickel - sulfur and wet - process intermediate imports increased in September 2025 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range; wait and see for spreads; sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [51][52][53]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 45 to 12,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 10,286 lots. The spot price had a certain range [55]. - **Important Information**: Some stainless - steel enterprises in Taiwan applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term driven by news; buy ss2512 and sell ss2602 for spreads [58][59]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2511 closed at 281,680 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton or 0.37%, and the position increased by 624 lots to 65,148 lots [61]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US and China - EU trade issues were involved, and the US president's remarks on Taiwan were responded to [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the demand recovers slowly [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate around the integer mark; wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is bearish in November, and the price is under short - term pressure but has support [69]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction; no suggestion for spreads and options [70][71][72]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance sheet will improve, and the short - term callback space is limited [75]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips; hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range; adjust the option strategy [78][79][80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1,240 to 77,120 yuan/ton, the index position increased by 41,864 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 873 to 29,019 tons. The spot price increased [82]. - **Important Information**: CATL's commercial - vehicle battery and energy - storage business grew [83]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, reflecting strong demand, and the price oscillates strongly [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Group 1: Market Outlook for Each Metal Copper - Market Review: On October 20, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 6,102 lots to 536,600 lots. Spot copper prices had a stable bottom - support, with Shanghai spot copper at a premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong inventory decreased after the weekend, but downstream procurement was sluggish due to high prices. The North China market was mainly for rigid - demand and long - term order delivery, with low activity [2]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations eased, and the 3rd Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee was in focus. Fundamentally, supply - side disturbances in copper mines increased, with expectations of processing fees dropping to 0 dollars/ton or lower next year. SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons, a decrease of 38,500 tons from the previous month. Consumption showed a marginal weakening, but rigid demand was resilient [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach, be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads, take profit when the export window opens, and then enter positive spreads again. Consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [8]. Alumina - Market Review: The Alumina 2601 contract rose 4 yuan to 2,806 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with some regions experiencing price drops [9]. - Logic Analysis: The previous supply - demand surplus in alumina was absorbed by downstream electrolytic aluminum plant stockpiling, but as stockpiling was completed, the surplus became more significant. Some production cuts and maintenance started in October, and more were expected in November [12]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Keep an eye on supply - side changes. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,272 lots to 487,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions also declined [14]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. Economic data releases and important Chinese meetings were in focus. Fundamentally, consumption resilience supported prices [17]. - Trading Strategy: With improved macro - expectations, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum prices, be cautious about chasing high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2512 contract fell 125 yuan to 20,350 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 107 lots. Spot prices in different regions remained stable [22]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supported costs, but high social inventory and warehouse receipts might suppress the upside. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [26]. - Trading Strategy: With improved tariff panic, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum alloy prices, which are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract fell 0.34% to 21,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 7,322 lots to 236,600 lots. Spot trading in Shanghai was mainly among traders, with downstream enterprises having low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. - Logic Analysis: At the mine end, import losses of zinc ore increased, and domestic processing fees declined. At the smelting end, although profits were narrowed, smelters' enthusiasm remained high. Consumption was expected to weaken as the traditional peak season passed. An external - strong and internal - weak pattern was likely to continue [35]. - Trading Strategy: Partially liquidate profitable short positions and re - short at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [37]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2512 contract rose 0.12% to 17,090 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 1,361 lots to 81,300 lots. Spot prices increased slightly, and downstream battery manufacturers had a certain purchasing willingness [39]. - Logic Analysis: With the resumption of production of secondary lead and the increase in primary lead production in mid - to - late October, lead supply might increase, and prices were at risk of falling [41]. - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42]. Nickel - Market Review: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 fell 630 yuan to 120,860 yuan/ton, with the index adding 7,691 lots. Spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel increased, while those of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained stable [44]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment became more volatile. Although nickel ore prices provided cost support, the supply - demand surplus was difficult to reverse. Nickel prices were expected to oscillate widely with a downward trend [47]. - Trading Strategy: Short when prices rebound to the upper limit of the oscillation range. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 fell 20 yuan to 12,595 yuan/ton, with the index reducing 5,239 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were at certain levels [52]. - Logic Analysis: The spot price was below the steel mill's cost. Terminal demand in October was still not optimistic, and steel mills might further cut production. Stainless steel was likely to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern [53]. - Trading Strategy: Expect weak oscillations. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage [56]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 279,340 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan/ton or 0.72%, with positions decreasing by 1,300 lots to 63,665 lots. Spot prices were stable, and downstream purchasing improved slightly [59]. - Logic Analysis: Trade uncertainties and concerns in the US credit market pressured LME metals. Although Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining, the impact on tin production was limited. Supply was still tight, and demand recovered slowly. Tin prices were expected to oscillate weakly [61]. - Trading Strategy: Tin prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to macro - disturbances. Temporarily hold off on options trading [62]. Industrial Silicon - Logic Analysis: In November, polysilicon production cuts would be negative for industrial silicon demand. Before large - scale production cuts in Southwest industrial silicon plants, there was a slight surplus, and prices were under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, price support might appear after production cuts in November [67]. - Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for a full correction. There are no arbitrage and option strategies for now [68]. Polysilicon - Logic Analysis: In November, leading manufacturers' production cuts would significantly improve the supply - demand balance. Currently, with no further news on capacity integration, some funds left the market, and the futures price might correct further [75]. - Strategy Suggestion: Avoid long positions in the short term. Hold reverse spreads of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3300, - 3000). Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, take profit on the put option and hold the call option [77]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The Lithium Carbonate 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 75,940 yuan/ton, with the index adding 387 lots and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 19 to 30,705 tons. Spot prices increased [81]. - Logic Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and lithium ore prices also increased. Although imports in September decreased, demand was strong, and prices might rise further if supply risks occurred [83]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [86]. Group 2: Important Industry Data Copper - Inventory: As of October 20, SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 9,100 tons to 186,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Imported copper supply was expected to continue, while domestic supply was expected to decrease. Consumption was expected to slightly recover, and weekly inventory might decrease [3]. - Production: Zijin Mining's copper production from January to September was 830,000 tons, up 5% year - on - year. In Q3, production was 260,000 tons, down 6% quarter - on - quarter [6]. - Trade: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,586,873.52 tons, down 6.24% month - on - month but up 6.43% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, up 21.76% month - on - month and 7.44% year - on - year [3][4]. Alumina - Inventory: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, up 115,000 tons from the previous week. Some electrolytic aluminum plants increased long - term order execution and spot purchases, but transportation issues affected inventory distribution [11]. - Trade: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, up 36.5% month - on - month and 82.3% year - on - year; imported 60,000 tons, down 36.4% month - on - month but up 61.7% year - on - year [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Inventory: On October 20, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 620,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday [16]. - Production: From January to September, real estate development data showed a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area [16]. Zinc - Inventory: As of October 20, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [31]. - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 505,400 tons of zinc concentrates, up 8.15% month - on - month and 24.94% year - on - year; imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc, down 11.6% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [31][32]. Lead - Inventory: As of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, up 1,800 tons from October 13 [40]. - Trade: In September 2025, lead concentrate imports increased 11.72% month - on - month but decreased 7.21% year - on - year. Refined lead exports decreased 46% month - on - month, and imports decreased 17.17% month - on - month [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 19,596.90 tons of lithium carbonate, down 10.30% month - on - month but up 20.49% year - on - year; exported 150.82 tons, down 59.12% month - on - month and 9.08% year - on - year [82].