Group 1: Copper - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamentals, with a forecast range of 80,500-82,000 CNY/ton and 10,000-10,250 USD/ton [1] - The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is concern over high prices leading to weak transaction volumes [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, averaging 20,740 CNY, with a rise of 0.32% [1] - The market is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with stable supply and a slight recovery in demand [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high range, with an average around 20,800 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Lead - Lead prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with no significant changes in spot prices [2] - The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision [2] - If the expected 25 basis point rate cut occurs, it may boost sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Group 4: Zinc - The zinc market faces ongoing supply pressure, with weak demand during the peak season affecting prices [2] - There is a positive outlook for zinc prices in the short term, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and domestic policy responses [2] - The expected price range for zinc is between 22,000-22,800 CNY/ton [2] Group 5: Tin - Refined tin prices have experienced a decline, with a cumulative drop of 1,000 CNY/ton [2] - The market is influenced by weak labor market data and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Tin prices are anticipated to show a strong fluctuation, with a focus on a range of 265,000-280,000 CNY/ton [2] Group 6: Nickel - The average price of nickel is reported at 122,230 CNY/ton, down by 1,140 CNY or 0.92% [3] - Concerns over the resumption of Indonesian mines and weak macroeconomic data are pressuring prices [3] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels, with a forecast range of 118,000-123,000 CNY/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - **Important Information**: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - **Important Information**: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - **Important Information**: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - **Important Information**: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - **Important Information**: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - **Important Information**: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors such as the continuous fermentation of Fed Governor Cook's incident, the rebound of US PCE in July in line with expectations, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, leading to the strong rise of precious metals and the expectation of a continued high - level and strong - side shock in the future [2]. - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors for the non - ferrous metals market. Policy changes in the non - ferrous metals industry, production and supply situations, and consumption trends vary by metal type, affecting their respective price trends and providing different trading strategies [2][5][10] Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose for five consecutive days, hitting a new high since April 22, up 0.83% to $3475.45 per ounce; London silver broke through the $40 mark for the first time since September 2011, up 2.48% to $40.674 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.46% to 9836 yuan per kilogram [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September and October [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors strengthen the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, so precious metals are expected to continue a high - level and strong - side shock [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position of precious metals, consider holding the previous long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at the $3500 integer mark of London gold. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 79660 yuan per ton, down 0.06%, and the LME closed at $9875 per ton, down 0.11%. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 15.88 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2617 tons to 27.78 million tons [5]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed, and the German economic minister called for a strategy to deal with China's large - scale procurement of scrap copper [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively sufficient, but the deliverable supply is relatively tight. Terminal consumption is weakening, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect high - level consolidation. For arbitrage, consider cross - market positive arbitrage, with a fast - in and fast - out approach for virtual - position positive arbitrage. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][8] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2510 contract rose 6 yuan to 2998 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a decrease in Xinjiang [10]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, with a lower winning price. The national alumina operating capacity decreased slightly, and inventories increased [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot trading has become more frequent, but the spot price is expected to decline. The overall supply remains high, and inventory is expected to continue to increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the alumina price to maintain a weak trend. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 20285 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with an increase in the East China region [15]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting some enterprises. Social inventories of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and imports decreased [15][16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the recycled aluminum industry, with a shortage of scrap aluminum. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is tightening. Alloy ingot prices are expected to be stable and slightly stronger [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the price to fluctuate at a high level with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [18][19] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 20 yuan to 20690 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. The price of thermal coal also decreased [21]. - **Important Information**: China's manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and aluminum ingot inventories increased. Two large - scale electrolytic aluminum projects are under construction [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The output of aluminum rods increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots in factories decreased. The downstream processing industry is recovering [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the aluminum price to fluctuate with the external market in the short term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25] Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.68% to $2833 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2510 remained unchanged at 22195 yuan per ton. Spot trading in Shanghai was light [27]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventories increased, and a zinc smelter in Guangxi will undergo maintenance [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, but the output of refined zinc may decrease in September. The downstream consumption in North China is affected by environmental protection, while that in South and East China is improving [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the zinc price to be stronger in a certain range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.5% to $2007 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.53% to 16930 yuan per ton. Spot trading was weak [30]. - **Important Information**: A new standard for electric bicycles was implemented on September 1, 2025 [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the production of lead smelters is decreasing. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the lead price to rise slightly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [31] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $70 to $15475 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2510 rose 630 yuan to 123400 yuan per ton. The premium of different nickel products decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Demonstrations in Indonesia have not affected the nickel industry for now. New RKAB quota regulations will be implemented in September, and a Chinese company won a nickel mine project in the Solomon Islands [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is variable in September. The riots in Indonesia may affect market sentiment. The supply and demand in China are relatively balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to be stronger in a shock [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the nickel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [36][37] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2510 contract rose 130 yuan to 13005 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given [39]. - **Important Information**: Nickel prices are rising, and the global stainless steel output in the first half of 2025 is announced [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The rise in nickel prices drives up the price of stainless steel. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and there is an optimistic expectation for the peak season in September [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the stainless steel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [40] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.89% to 8495 yuan per ton, and most spot prices were stable or slightly decreased [42]. - **Important Information**: A silicon - related standardization seminar will be held in September [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon industry is expected to weaken, while the demand from polysilicon may increase. The supply is increasing, and the price may rebound in the short term [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect a short - term rebound. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, there is no strategy provided [43] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 6.03% to 52285 yuan per ton. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon showed different trends [45]. - **Important Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices rose [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the output of polysilicon increases in September, the limited sales by enterprises and the increase in silicon wafer production provide upward momentum for the price [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, hold long positions and partially take profits near the previous high. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [47] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 1860 yuan to 75560 yuan per ton. Spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [49]. - **Important Information**: Porsche adjusted its battery business, a battery factory in China was put into production, and Tianqi Lithium prepared for the industrialization of lithium sulfide [49][50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of batteries and cathodes is increasing in September, but the output of lithium carbonate may be affected by raw materials. The price is looking for support, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be noted [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, consider buying after the price stabilizes. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [52] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.2% to 274320 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and trading inquiries increased [54]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed [54]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The LME inventory increased, and attention should be paid to future production resumption and demand recovery [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the tin price to fluctuate. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream energy prices have a slight correction, and sectors such as steel and building materials are relatively weak. The steel market is in a bottoming - out stage with slow demand recovery and supply pressure. Although the cost side has strong support, factors like increased social inventory and cautious terminal procurement restrict steel price rebounds [1]. - The mid - stream high - tech manufacturing industry continues to improve. In Jiangxi, the high - tech manufacturing industry shows strong momentum, with the sales of the new energy and equipment manufacturing industrial chains increasing by 20.9% and 17.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The manufacturing industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading towards high - end, intelligent, and green directions driven by policy support and technological innovation [1]. - Downstream consumption sees local governments and enterprises jointly issuing large - scale consumption subsidy vouchers and launching intensive theme promotion activities to seize the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". For example, Chongqing launched the "2025 Autumn Consumption Season" on September 1st, planning to invest over 1.7 billion yuan in promotion funds and carry out more than 500 consumption promotion activities. Guangdong will issue 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers on September 12th [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Mid - level Overview - Upstream: Energy prices slightly correct, and steel and building materials are weak. The steel market is in a difficult situation with slow demand recovery and supply pressure [1]. - Mid - stream: High - tech manufacturing in Jiangxi shows strong growth, and the overall manufacturing industry is upgrading [1]. - Downstream: Local governments and enterprises promote consumption through subsidy vouchers and promotion activities [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Production Industry - Not detailed in the text other than the mid - stream high - tech manufacturing situation mentioned above 3.2.2. Service Industry - Not detailed in the text 3.3. Industry Pricing - PE (TTM) and PB values, as well as their trends and quantiles, are provided for various industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction. For example, the PE (TTM) of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry is 53.6, with a quantile of 100%, and the PB is 4.78, with a quantile of 98% [32]. - Industry credit spreads are presented for different industries, including their values at different time points (last year, one quarter ago, one month ago, last week, this week) and quantiles. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week is 50.46, with a quantile of 2.90% [33]. 3.4. Sub - industry Tracking 3.4.1. Generalized Agriculture - Palm oil and corn prices continue to decline, while cotton prices continue to rise. Apple and cotton inventories decline cyclically [2]. 3.4.2. Chemical Industry - The PTA price goes up, and the urea inventory goes up [4]. 3.4.3. Non - ferrous Industry - The zinc price slightly declines, and the lead price goes up. The inventories of lead and copper decline cyclically [3]. 3.4.4. Ferrous Industry - All commodity prices in the ferrous industry slightly decline, and the inventories of coking coal and coke decline [3]. 3.4.5. Infrastructure Industry - The concrete price rebounds, and the cement price remains stable [5]. 3.4.6. Logistics and Transportation - Railway and road freight increase, while waterway freight volume decreases [7]. 3.4.7. Automobile Manufacturing - Not detailed in the text 3.4.8. Real Estate Industry - In key monitored cities this period, the sales of commercial housing in Chongqing, Nanchang, Qingdao, Jinan, and Zhengzhou decline significantly compared to the previous period [6].