Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][11] Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has led to an upward trend in copper and aluminum prices. Copper prices have increased by 1.22% in London, 1.15% in Shanghai, and 2.30% in New York. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's rate cut decision and the demand during the peak season of September and October [4][6][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes significant macroeconomic information, including a substantial downward revision of the U.S. non-farm employment benchmark by 911,000 for 2025. Additionally, initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, and the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate for August met expectations at 2.9% [9][10]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the sector rising by 3.76% compared to the index's 1.52% increase. The report identifies the top-performing stocks and notes the overall positive trend in the sector [12][13]. 3. Valuation Changes - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.96, with a change of 0.92. The PB for the sector is 2.98, reflecting a change of 0.10. The non-ferrous sector's PE is 112% of the overall A-share market [22][25]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown an increase, with London copper up 1.22% and Shanghai copper up 1.15%. The report notes a decrease in London copper inventory by 2.53% and an increase in Shanghai copper inventory by 14.91%. The report also discusses the profitability of copper smelting, which has worsened [27][39]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices have risen, with London aluminum increasing by 3.18% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.74%. The report highlights a decrease in alumina prices and an increase in aluminum smelting profits [39][40]. 6. Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium down 3.08% to 72,450 yuan/ton. The report suggests that the lithium market is entering a destocking phase due to seasonal demand [78][79]. 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with overseas MB cobalt rising by 1.25% to 16.15 USD/pound. The report notes the impact of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt supply and prices [91][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, the gold price is bullish due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. The weak employment data in the US in August strengthens the easing expectation. In the long - term, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the de - dollarization trend, and geopolitical risks boost the currency attribute and safe - haven demand of gold. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures have exceeded 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3]. - **Copper**: In the short term, with a tight supply, the copper price faces obvious pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with the price expected to stand firm at 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price. Fundamentally, the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and the recovery of downstream demand in the peak season support the price. However, the late de - stocking node restricts the upward range of the aluminum price in the short term, and the SHFE aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and the overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. - **Nickel**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is also strong, and the stainless - steel market is in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index, rate - cut expectations, and the difficulty of stainless - steel exports [84]. - **Tin**: In the short term, the factors affecting the tin price are not obvious, and the technical level can be used for judgment. The price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there is an optimistic short - term expectation for the resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, the peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" still provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. - **Silicon**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty in price trends. Investors are advised to be cautious [120]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the initial jobless claims soared to 263,000, which strengthened the easing expectation. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures exceeded 100 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 billion yuan in a month [3]. Copper - **Price Forecast**: In the short term, the copper price has pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton and may be supported by the 20 - day moving average, with the expectation of reaching 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,755 yuan/ton, 80,990 yuan/ton, 80,930 yuan/ton, and 81,080 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 1.06%, 1.01%, and 1.01% [22]. Aluminum - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price [37]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The aluminum - water ratio has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is recovering, mainly in the industrial profile sector led by photovoltaics. The possible termination of the tax - refund policy for some recycled aluminum enterprises may reduce the supply of recycled aluminum and support the consumption of primary aluminum [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side is in an oversupply state, with abundant overseas zinc ore supply and high zinc ore imports. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is volatile [84]. Tin - **Price Judgment**: In the short term, the technical level can be used to judge the tin price, and the price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Logic**: The peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. Silicon - **Industry Outlook**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure, and the polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty [120].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant rally, with major indices rebounding strongly, driven by multiple factors including external influences from the US tech sector and internal improvements in cash flow for listed companies [1][2][3] Market Performance - On September 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.36%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 5.15% [1] - Over 4,200 stocks in the market saw gains, with AI-related stocks leading the charge [1] Factors Driving Market Growth - External factors include a major US tech company's substantial earnings increase due to a surge in AI cloud service demand, which ignited market sentiment and led to a return to the AI theme in A-shares [2] - The US non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations raised the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts, alongside expectations of RMB appreciation and improved PPI, resulting in continued foreign investment inflows into the Chinese market [2] - The International Financial Association reported that foreign investors injected nearly $45 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds in August, marking the highest inflow in nearly a year [2] Internal Market Dynamics - The technology sector had previously undergone a significant correction, and with the recent catalysts, many stocks rebounded from prior adjustments [2] - Listed companies are seeing improvements in operating cash flow, with a decline in capital expenditures and an increase in free cash flow, enhancing their long-term intrinsic value [2] - The current low interest rate environment is encouraging residents to shift investments towards equity assets, indicating potential for further price appreciation [2] Future Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to maintain a long-term positive trend, with a focus on domestic demand and potential policy measures to stimulate growth [4] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a downward trend in risk-free returns, accelerated capital market reforms, and stabilization in US-China relations, all contributing to a gradual increase in market indices [4] Investment Focus Areas - Key sectors to watch include AI, Hong Kong internet stocks, "anti-involution" policies, and non-bank financials [5][6] - Specific investment opportunities are identified in construction materials, steel, photovoltaics, traditional Chinese medicine, lithium, and offline retail, particularly in relation to supply-side reforms [5] - The AI sector remains a focal point due to its strong fundamental outlook, with significant demand for AI chips and domestic semiconductor production expansion [6] - Non-bank financials are also highlighted as a sector with potential for recovery and growth, particularly those meeting low PE and PB criteria [6]

Group 1 - The company, Ganfeng Lithium, announced that it does not have any overdue guarantees [2] - The company confirmed that it has not provided guarantees for its major shareholders, actual controllers, or their related parties [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is likely to support copper prices, with recent price changes showing a slight increase in copper prices [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was below expectations, indicating potential economic weakness [10] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for August was significantly lower than expected, which may influence market sentiment [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 2.12% compared to a decline of 1.18% in the index [12] - Key stocks that performed well include Western Mining and Coldray Cobalt, while others like Shenghe Resources and Beikong Technology lagged [12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is reported at 24.04, with a slight decrease of 0.31 [21] - The PB for the sector stands at 2.88, also showing a minor decrease [21] 4. Copper - Copper prices saw an increase of 0.73% in London and 0.92% in Shanghai, while New York copper prices fell by 0.91% [26] - The report indicates a decrease in London copper inventory by 0.60% and an increase in Shanghai copper inventory by 2.64% [26] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased slightly, with London aluminum down by 0.11% and Shanghai aluminum down by 0.29% [38] - The report notes a rise in aluminum production costs and a slight increase in profit margins for aluminum producers [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 6.15% to 74,750 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 1.76% [74] - The report suggests that the demand for lithium may rebound as inventory levels decrease during the peak season [74] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 1.27% to $15.95 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices also showing an upward trend [85] - The report highlights the impact of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt supply and pricing [85]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active trading of the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 1.8% in early trading before a slight decline of 0.78% [1] - The ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net subscription of 21.6 million units and a total capital inflow of 75.6 million yuan over the past two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan as of September 2 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Western Gold reached the daily limit, while Jiangxi Copper, Zhongjin Gold, and Shengxin Lithium Energy rose over 2%, while China Rare Earth fell over 7% [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has driven the London spot gold price to surpass $3,500 per ounce, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce [3] - The China Securities Nonferrous Metal Index reported that 55 out of 60 constituent stocks achieved profitability in the first half of the year, with 10 stocks seeing a net profit growth of over 100%, led by Northern Rare Earth with a staggering 1,951% increase [3][4] - The outlook for the sector suggests that economic recovery expectations have not yet fully materialized, and future pricing will be influenced by manufacturing demand for nonferrous metals [4] Group 3 - The macro drivers for the sector include expectations of gold price increases due to Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases [6] - Strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to benefit from global competition, while lithium, cobalt, and aluminum are influenced by domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors [6] - The supply-demand balance for industrial metals like copper and aluminum remains tight, with limited supply growth amid rising demand from emerging industries [6]

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a 5.50% increase in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising prices of industrial and precious metals, which boosted company performance [2] - The precious metals segment reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, with net profit reaching 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for continued price strength [3] - The market anticipates sustained gold price increases due to strong expectations for interest rate cuts following signals from Powell in August [3] Group 3: Copper Sector - The copper sector saw revenues of 427.52 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.41%, with net profit at 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2] - The rebound in copper prices is driven by supply shortages and increased demand from the electrical sector, particularly in China's new energy field [2] Group 4: Aluminum Sector - The aluminum sector reported revenues of 113.71 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.29%, with net profit at 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40% [2] - The resilience of aluminum prices is supported by strong fundamentals and a decrease in coal prices, leading to increased profit margins [2] Group 5: Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 14.57% [3] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase, driven by price hikes and supply chain improvements [3] Group 6: Small Metals - The small metals sector saw a revenue increase of 20.46% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 13.99% [4] - Prices for molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin increased by 2.32%, 10.46%, 32.07%, and 1.12% respectively, indicating a positive price trend [4] Group 7: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt Sectors - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 6.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 21% [4] - The nickel-cobalt sector reported revenues of 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with net profit at 2.65 billion yuan, up 16% [4] Group 8: New Materials - The new materials sector showed revenue growth of 12.53% in Q2 2025, with net profit increasing by 25.86% [5] - The growth is primarily driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution trends [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a comprehensive increase in precious metal prices, driven by rising risk aversion and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for sustained gold price growth due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, and a net profit of 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [1][3]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has heightened risk aversion, contributing to a continuous upward trend in gold prices [1][3]. - The expectation of ongoing global central bank gold purchases is anticipated to support gold prices, with a focus on gold ETF allocations and key stocks such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [1][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a price increase of 5.50% in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising industrial and precious metal prices [2]. - Copper prices rebounded due to supply shortages and increased electrical demand, with copper mining and smelting companies reporting revenues of 427.52 billion yuan, up 20.41%, and a net profit of 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2]. - The aluminum sector showed resilience with revenues of 113.71 billion yuan, a 6.29% increase, and net profits of 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40%, supported by strong fundamentals and declining coal prices [2]. Group 3: Rare Earths and Specialty Metals - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profits rising by 14.57%, driven by price increases and supply chain reforms [3]. - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase [3]. - The small metals sector reported a revenue increase of 20.46% and a net profit increase of 13.99%, with significant price increases in molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin [4]. Group 4: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, while net profits increased by 21% [4]. - The nickel-cobalt sector saw revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, with net profits of 2.65 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in profitability [4]. Group 5: New Materials - The new materials sector reported a revenue increase of 12.53% and a net profit increase of 25.86% in Q2 2025, driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution [5].

Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 597,200 CNY/ton this week, a decrease of 4.05% week-on-week [1][5] - The recent implementation of the "Interim Measures" marks the official start of supply-side reforms in the rare earth industry [1][5] - In July, the export volume of magnetic materials increased significantly, with a month-on-month growth of 75% and a year-on-year growth of 6%, indicating substantial recovery potential in exports [1][5] Group 2: Copper Market - This week, LME copper price increased by 0.99% to 9,906 USD/ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 0.91% to 79,400 CNY/ton [2] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 127,100 tons compared to Monday, but decreased by 4,600 tons compared to last Thursday [2] - The operating rate of copper rod enterprises decreased to 68.12%, down 3.25% week-on-week, indicating a slow recovery in terminal demand [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 0.11% to 2,619 USD/ton, while Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.53% to 20,700 CNY/ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 4,000 tons to 620,000 tons compared to Monday [3] - The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased by 0.5% to 53.5%, reflecting a mild recovery in downstream demand [3] Group 4: Gold Market - This week, COMEX gold price is 3,516.10 USD/ounce, with SPDR gold holdings decreasing by 19.19 tons to 977.68 tons [4][5] - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts and trade uncertainties [5] Group 5: Antimony and Molybdenum - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to improved export expectations and significant production cuts in domestic smelters [6] - Molybdenum prices have risen as major steel mills resume procurement, with steel procurement volumes returning to around 13,000 tons since August [6] Group 6: Lithium and Cobalt - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 4.6% to 81,000 CNY/ton this week, while lithium hydroxide price decreased by 0.5% to 82,000 CNY/ton [7] - The price of cobalt decreased by 1.7% to 267,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt intermediate CIF price increased by 0.8% to 13.3 USD/pound [7]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The weekly price changes for copper are +1.54% (London), +0.91% (Shanghai), and +2.78% (New York). The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6][28]. - For aluminum, the report suggests that prices will remain volatile due to rising inventory levels. The current price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3185 CNY/ton, and the operating rate for metallurgical-grade alumina has dropped to 82.4% [6][39]. - Lithium prices are expected to rebound as demand increases during the peak season, despite a recent decline in prices. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton [6][83]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to a decrease in raw material imports and an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to a supply shortage in Q4 [6][97]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been strong, with the sector index rising by 7.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.32 percentage points [12][21]. - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims and core PCE inflation, which may impact market sentiment [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with London copper increasing by 1.54% and Shanghai copper by 0.91%. The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper inventory by 2.39% [25][28]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable, with current prices at 20,730 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight increase in aluminum production margins [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a minor increase, while zinc prices have fluctuated, with a significant drop in London zinc inventory [51][62]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have risen by 5.61% in London and 3.56% in Shanghai, while nickel prices have also shown positive movement [65][69]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased recently, but the report anticipates a recovery in prices due to increased demand in the upcoming peak season [83]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo and a decrease in imports [97].