Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货9月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,102.0 | 1,101.0 | 1,100.0 | 1,085.4 | -2.0 | -0. ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the rate of freight rate reduction can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS fell below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. The freight rates in October were further reduced, with the opening price in the first half of October dropping to a minimum of $1400/FEU. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October were $1400 and $1470 respectively, about $200 lower than the late - September quotes. Other airlines followed suit, with the quotes of major airlines concentrated between $1435 - $1500, also about $200 lower than before. The 12 - month contract may have low - buying opportunities, and the 10 - month contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the market freight rates on ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the composite index widened. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries nationwide was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, a 14.3% drop from the previous period. In the European route, Germany's economic situation was still sluggish. The freight rates in the spot market continued to decline. In the Mediterranean route, the supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and the market freight rates continued to adjust. In the North American route, the consumer confidence index in the United States dropped to a new low since May this year, and the freight rates in the spot market dropped significantly. There were also reports on the tense situation in the Middle East, including the US veto of the Gaza cease - fire resolution and the Israeli military's actions in Gaza [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 22, 2025, was 1254.92 points, a 12.9% drop from September 15th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, an 11.6% drop from September 15th [12]. 4.3.2 Futures Quotes of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Trading data for September 22nd showed that different contracts of container shipping futures (European route) had different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,093.7, a settlement price of 1,102.0, a rise of 21.4, and a rise rate of 2.00%, with a trading volume of 44,939 and an open interest of 46,030 [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various charts related to shipping data were provided, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Settlement Freight Index, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Monday Changes**: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].

Market Overview - The futures market is experiencing widespread declines, with major contracts such as 20 rubber, glass, coking coal, and rubber all dropping over 2% [3] - The palm oil market has also seen a decline of 2%, while other commodities like silver, live pigs, and synthetic rubber have dropped nearly 2% [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains unstable, with the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve not providing the expected support [6] Financial Futures Sector - The stock index futures have shown volatility, with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) down 1.35% and the SSE 50 index futures (IH) down 1.40% [6] - The market is currently assessing the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve, with a divergence in expectations among officials regarding future rate cuts [6] Precious Metals Market - The gold market is undergoing high-level adjustments, with limited upside potential due to fewer expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7] - Geopolitical tensions and central banks' continued accumulation of gold support long-term demand, but rising nominal interest rates are exerting pressure on gold prices [7] Industrial Products Sector - The industrial products sector is under pressure, with copper prices declining due to less-than-expected support from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [8] - Aluminum prices have also retreated after a previous breakout, while nickel prices are finding support at lower ranges [8] Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector is generally weak, with methanol inventories remaining high and market sentiment declining [15] - PVC supply and demand remain weak, leading to a short-term stabilization followed by a downturn [16] Shipping and Container Market - The shipping market, particularly the European route, is experiencing significant declines, with the Shanghai export container settlement price index dropping 8.1% [19] - The current supply pressure is evident, with global container capacity exceeding 32.9 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 8% [19] Key Focus Points for Next Week - Upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data will be critical in influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [21] - Attention should also be given to geopolitical risks and the outcomes of other central banks' meetings [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a risk of price - slashing in the spot market, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. High current positions pose risks of pre - holiday position reduction or subsequent position transfer [1]. - In the medium - term, there are multiple upward drivers. From a valuation perspective, the 02 contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long - positions compared to the 12 contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The 04 contract is currently over - valued and is more suitable for short - positions in the short - term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances. Therefore, attention can be paid to the 12 - 02 reverse spread and the 02 - 04 positive spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC and FC futures contracts are presented. For example, the EC2510 contract closed at 1050.5 with a 5.01% increase, while the FC2512 contract closed at 1630.0 with a 0.93% decrease [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are provided, such as the EC2510 - 2512 spread being - 579.5, showing a - 40.1 change compared to the previous day [1]. Index Information - **Shipping Indexes**: Various shipping indexes are updated weekly or monthly. For instance, the SCHIS index was 0 on September 15, 2025, down 100.00% from the previous period; the SCFI index was 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, 2025, down 8.84% from the previous period [1]. Spot Market Information - **Downstream Booking**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the period from the end of September to the beginning of October (week 39 - 41). The average quote for week 39 is 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), and for weeks 40 - 41, it is 1500 dollars (equivalent to 1050 points on the futures market) [1]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacities in September, October, and November are 290,000, 271,400, and 313,900 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, they are 290,000, 271,400, and 293,400 TEU [1]. News and Other Information - **Military Action News**: On September 20, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces expanded their ground operations in Gaza City, resulting in 34 Palestinian deaths in the past 24 hours [3]. - **Index Delay Note**: The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days for publication [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has fallen below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The decline in freight rates shows characteristics of a smooth downward trend in the off - season, and the decline has further expanded. There is a low - long opportunity in the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price breaking through $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price of major shipping companies showed a smooth downward trend in the off - season, and the decline expanded. The current empty - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be an opportunity to go long in the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From September 8th to 12th, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the comprehensive index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on September 12th was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period. In the European route, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year in August, and the trade volume with the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year. In the Mediterranean route, the spot booking price continued to decline. In the North American route, the US employment market slowed down significantly, and China's exports to the US decreased by more than 30% year - on - year in August, but the market freight rates continued to rise. The Middle East situation has become tense again [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2025/9/15 | 2025/9/8 | Change | MoM (%) | |--|--|--|--|--| | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1440.24 | 1566.46 | - 126.22 | - 8.1% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Base Ports) | 1349.84 | 980.48 | 369.36 | 37.7% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Trading data of container shipping European line futures on September 18th are provided, including contract details such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., with information on previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Spot freight rates are maintaining a low level, the bulk market is generally weak, the US has cut the benchmark interest rate again, and market pessimism persists. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 903.32 points, down 11.71%; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; the SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1%; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [1]. Economic Data - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, higher than in July and the highest since May 2024 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2]. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff issue has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [3]. Contract Information - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price shows a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an increasing decline. There is currently no significant increase in blank sailings compared to last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has been falling for nine consecutive weeks, dropping below 1500 points. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with large - container quotes from shipping companies showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the third and fourth weeks of September were $1669/GP and $1590/GP respectively, about $400 lower than in the first half of the month, and OOCL's quotes in the second half of the month were $1600 - 1700/GP, about $200 lower than before [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As the current blank - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year and the overall shipping capacity has increased, attention should be paid to whether blank - sailing efforts will be increased later to support the freight rate bottom. The tense situation in the Middle East may support far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From September 8 to 12, the China Export Container Shipping Market was generally stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the composite index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, showing the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade. On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In August, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and the trade volume between China and the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year, accounting for 13.1% of China's total foreign trade. However, this week, there was no further growth in transportation demand, and the market freight rate continued to adjust. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1154/TEU, down 12.2% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot booking prices continuing to decline. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $1738/TEU, down 11.8% from the previous period [9][10]. - **North American Routes**: In August, the US non - farm sector added 22,000 jobs, far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. China's exports to the US in August decreased by more than 30% year - on - year. However, this week, transportation demand remained stable, driving the market freight rate up. On September 12, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2370/FEU and $3307/FEU respectively, up 8.3% and 7.6% from the previous period [10]. - **Middle East Tension**: Since September 8, the situation in the Middle East has become tense again. Israel has increased its attacks on the Gaza Strip, and there have been a series of attacks and counter - attacks. The tense situation may support far - month container shipping contracts [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS for European Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes was 1440.24 points, down 126.22 points (- 8.1%) from September 8 [12]. - **SCFIS for US West Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for US West routes was 1349.84 points, up 369.36 points (37.7%) from September 8 [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Trading Data**: On September 17, for contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., there were different changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1109.7, a drop of 79.9 points (- 6.72%), with a trading volume of 43,546 and an open interest of 49,609, an increase of 2092 [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates, etc., to visually display relevant data [13][17][19]