集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓屋 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.0 | 0.06% | -41.8 | 100 | | 1956 | -27 | | | EC2602 | | 1871.8 | 8.84% | -282.6 | 52704 | | 36510 | 5003 | | | EC2604 | | 1166.8 | 3.37% | 422.4 | 11708 | | 20471 | 1634 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 2.46% | 269.2 | 587 | | 2184 | -36 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.2 | 2.27% | 103.0 | 256 | | 1197 | -91 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1061.0 | 1.02% | ...

早上好！ 先来看隔夜市场行情。截至收盘，现货白银涨2.79%，报69.0304美元/盎司，盘中达到69.4549美元/盎 司，创历史新高。COMEX白银期货涨2.20%，报68.975美元/盎司，盘中达到69.525美元/盎司，创历史 新高。 现货黄金涨2.48%，刷新历史高位至4449.18美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货涨2.16%，报4482.30美元/盎 司，也创历史新高。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.49美元/桶，收于每桶58.01美元， 涨幅为2.64%；2026年2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.60美元/桶，收于每桶62.07美元，涨幅 为2.65%。 对于国际贵金属价格集体走高，美国彭博社报道称，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降 息是黄金价格飙升的主要原因。美国《华尔街日报》此前报道，担忧美元等货币前景的投资者正大举买 入黄金等替代性资产。美国高盛本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将涨至每盎司4900美 元。 美国总统特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则美国经济将面临衰 退的风险。这一表态与 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,631.7 | 1,632.0 | 1,624.4 | 1,626.7 | -7.3 | - ...

集运早报 研究中心能化团队 合约 昨日收盘价 其差 昨日成交昆 涨跌 FC 2512 1624.4 -0 47% -113 8 122 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को किसी की की की में बाद किया था। इस बार की बाद किया था। इस बार की बाद किया है कि में बाद किया है कि कि में बाद किया है कि कि किसी की किसी की किसी की बाद किया है कि क | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 道業 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1624.4 | -0.47% | -113.8 | 122 | | 2143 | -75 | | | EC2602 | | 1668.6 | -1.84% | -158.0 | 27023 | | 3 ...

分品种来看，金属板块的整体强势进一步延续。尽管多晶硅、碳酸锂有所降温，但基本金属日内全线走高，兼具贵金属和工业金属属性的银、 铂、钯强势不减。同时，国际油价低位反弹带动能化板块情绪回暖，加上煤炭市场利多消息影响下焦煤大幅反弹，工业品日内几乎普涨。相比 之下，农产品板块持续弱势，一二号黄大豆、生猪等收盘再跌超1%。玉米、鸡蛋、白糖等也均不同程度下跌。 多晶硅冲高回落 集运欧线承压跌超3% 虽然铂钯继续强势冲高，但多晶硅市场18日却出现降温。尽管17日夜盘时段多晶硅仍惯性冲高并尝试再度挑战62000元／吨关口，但多重因素 综合作用下，期价关口遇阻明显，18日午盘时段更是减仓回落，终盘收跌2.6%。尽管近期无论是"反内卷"预期的强化，还是国家能源局表态 2026年持续提高新能源供给比重，都对多晶硅供需前景构成利好。但眼下多晶硅市场高库存和弱需求基本面未改也是事实，弱现实与强预期的 博弈强烈，加上交易所隔夜提示市场风险引发市场对监管动作的担忧，均加大了短期多晶硅市场降温的压力。在此背景下，多晶硅盘面上多头 获利了结的迹象明显。行情数据显示，随着18日午盘期价震荡回落，多晶硅主力合约持仓显著下降，截至收盘当日净减仓超1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - No clear core views are explicitly stated in the provided reports. The reports mainly present various data on different futures and industries including股指期货, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread was 3.52, up from the previous day. The historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles were 58.90% and 82.70% respectively. For IF inter - delivery spreads, different combinations showed various values and percentile positions [1]. - **IH Spreads**: Similar to IF, IH spreads had specific values and percentile changes compared to the previous day [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC spot - futures spread was 897, with high historical percentiles. Inter - delivery spreads also had their own values and changes [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM spot - futures spread was 6.26. Inter - delivery spreads showed different magnitudes and percentile positions [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, and others had their current values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: For different bond futures like TS, TF, T, and TL, their implied repo rates (IRR) and basis had specific values, changes, and percentiles on December 17, 2025 [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Inter - delivery spreads for different bond futures contracts (e.g., current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - far quarter) had their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. also had corresponding data on December 17, 2025 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures**: On December 17, 2025, domestic futures contracts like AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, and PD2606 had their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes compared to the previous day [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Foreign futures contracts such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium also had their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals including London gold, London silver, and others had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different spot and futures prices (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold, London gold - COMEX gold) had specific values, changes, and historical percentiles [3]. - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, and others had their current values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventories of precious metals in different exchanges and ETF holdings had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European and US West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US West, and US East routes) had their settlement or freight rates, changes, and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 (main contract) and others had their prices, changes, and percentage changes. The basis of the main contract also had its value and change [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply had a slight change. Shanghai port - related indicators such as port on - time rate, port berthing situation, and monthly export volume had their values and percentage changes. Overseas economic indicators including Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, and US manufacturing PMI also had their changes [5].

Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on December 18, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2]. 1. Futures Market 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Changes - EC2512 closed at 1632.0 with a 0.03% increase, EC2602 at 1699.8 with a 0.77% increase, EC2604 at 1124.1 with a 1.02% increase, EC2606 at 1283.7 with a 0.49% decrease, EC2608 at 1448.1 with a 0.98% decrease, and EC2610 at 1045.2 with a 0.38% increase [2]. 1.2 Futures Contract Positions and Changes - The positions of EC2512 decreased by 348 to 2218, EC2602 decreased by 12 to 31971, EC2604 decreased by 869 to 19059, EC2606 increased by 1 to 2306, EC2608 decreased by 26 to 1325, and EC2610 increased by 84 to 4795 [2]. 1.3 Futures Month - spreads - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 507.9, down 10.9 from the previous day and 83.2 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous day and 112.7 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 was 55.7, up 1.6 from the previous day and 29.5 week - on - week [2]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Indexes - The SCFI (European line) was 1538 US dollars/TEU on December 12, 2025, up 9.86% from the previous period; CCFI was 1470.55 points, up 1.59%; NCFI was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% [2]. 2.2 European Line Spot Quotes - In Week 51, MSK opened at 2400 (up 200 from the previous period), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars; in Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (down 100). In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively. MSC opened at 2864 US dollars (up 200), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4]. 3. Market Analysis and Suggestions 3.1 Overall Market Trend - There has been no obvious trending market recently, and the futures market has fluctuated widely around the news of MSK's cabin opening [2]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - After the 02 contract, the market depends on the spot trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of the freight rate in January. Historically, the freight rate peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase [2]. 3.3 Trading Suggestions - Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, the downside space for the 04 contract is small, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot or recovers the basis. For the far - month contracts, a positive spread trading strategy can be considered, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [2][3]. 4. Related News - On December 17, the head of Mossad claimed that Iran still desired to build nuclear weapons, increasing the possibility of further conflict between the two countries [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，铂、钯表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251218 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4578.2 | 1.75% | 0.09% | 1.61% | -0.86% | 16.76% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 1699. ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月17日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 1.85 | 8.31 | 89.30% | 68.9096 | -3.39 | 43.80% | H期现价来 | -0.12 | 39.60% | 期现价差 | IC用现价差 | | | | | | 8 88 | 7.04 | 99.10% | 93.70% | 7.38 | 92.80% | IM期现价差 | 8.06 | 95.00% | 次月-当月 | -19.40 | -1.60 | 20.90% | 23.40% | | | | -48.00 | 零月-当月 | 21.30 ...