Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]

南华期货集运产业周报 ——地缘扰动叠加中欧贸易量增长预期拉升远期定价 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 当前市场的核心矛盾在于"春节前季节性货量下滑的弱现实"与"地缘政治风险升级及亚欧贸易关系改善的强预 期"之间的激烈博弈。本周，红海危机外溢至波斯湾的风险显著提升，叠加印度-欧盟自贸协定落地、中英高层 互动等宏观贸易利多，共同强化了市场对长期绕行和货量潜力的预期，推动远月合约持续走强。然而，临近 春节，货主出货节奏放缓，船公司为保障装载率下调即期线上报价的"弱现实"也对近月合约形成压制，导致盘 面呈现"近弱远强"的分化格局。 上周scfi综合指数最新录得1316点（-9.68%）。其中，欧洲航线录得1418（-11%），美西航线录得1867 （-10%），美东航线2605（-10%）。本周scfi继续呈现加速下跌走势。 即期运价方面，趋势性下移较为明显。从线上报价的趋势走势来看，从第三周到第九周，价格重心下移 10%。线上week9报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo - rush and price - support stories in March, the market is likely to remain stable in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward potential depends on capital behavior. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, focusing on the more certain far - month contract 2610 affected by the off - season and policies. Be cautious with the 2604 contract unless there is significant premium. The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. For the 06 and 08 contracts, their valuations are hard to anchor, currently within a reasonable range and highly affected by geopolitics, so operate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Price and Volume**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.09% change, volume of 432, and a decrease of 374 in open interest. The EC2604 contract closed at 1249.7 with a 1.68% increase, volume of 27481, and a decrease of 477 in open interest. The EC2606 contract closed at 1576.0 with a 5.55% increase, volume of 1532, and an increase of 1704 in open interest. The EC2608 contract closed at 1645.4 with a 5.42% increase, volume of 1154, and an increase of 117 in open interest. The EC2610 contract closed at 1151.2 with a 1.42% increase, volume of 2032, and an increase of 211 in open interest [2] - **Month - spread**: The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 467.8, with a day - on - day decrease of 22.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 111.6. The EC2504 - 2606 month - spread was - 326.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 62.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 51.7 [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The spot (European route) indicator "ટરનાટ" on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a - 4.86% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European route) on January 23, 2026, was 1595 dollars/TEU, a - 4.83% change from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK opened at 2450 ( - 300 compared to the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. In Week 6, MSK opened at 2050 ( - 400 compared to the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February Week 7 - 9 ( - 100 compared to the previous period), lower than market expectations [4] Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready. US President Trump said that Hamas seemed to be about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot price of container shipping to Europe shows signs of peaking and falling, with the Shanghai Port to European base port freight rate dropping for the second consecutive week, and the SCFIS index also falling in sync. Multiple shipping companies have lowered their quotes for late January, indicating that the inflection point of the spot price high has appeared. However, the sudden change in the Red Sea re - navigation situation may boost far - month contracts. [8] - The overall situation of the China's export container transportation market from January 19th to 23rd was weak, with freight rates on long - distance routes falling, dragging down the comprehensive index. The future economic prospects of Europe, the United States, and other regions are not optimistic, which may affect the container shipping market. [9][10] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The Shanghai Port to European base port freight rate dropped by 4.8% to $1595/TEU last weekend, and the SCFIS index fell by 4.9% to 1859.31 points on Monday. Multiple shipping companies, including Maersk and OOCL, have lowered their quotes for late January. [8] - Red Sea Situation: After Maersk announced the rerouting of some routes back to the Red Sea, it changed its plan due to the complex international situation. The continuous frictions in the Red Sea region and the intensifying US - Iran situation may affect market sentiment and boost far - month contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Transportation Market: From January 19th to 23rd, the market was weak, with freight rates on long - distance routes falling, and the comprehensive index dropping by 7.4% to 1457.86 points on January 23rd. [9] - Economic Situation: China's industrial added value in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The future of the Chinese economy is expected to remain stable. However, the economic prospects of Europe, the United States, and other regions are not optimistic. [9][10] - Regional Situations: In the European route, geopolitical risks have increased due to the US's proposal to acquire Greenland and Trump's tariff threats. In the North American route, US government actions have increased market uncertainty, and the US economy faces challenges such as a weak labor market and inflation pressure. [9][10] - International Events: The second - stage plan for the Gaza cease - fire has faced some problems, and there are differences between Netanyahu and Trump. Tensions between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi - backed Yemeni government have resurfaced. [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS European route index on January 26th was 1859.31 points, down 4.9% from January 19th. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1294.32 points, down 0.8% from January 19th. [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures: The trading data of multiple contracts on January 29th are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc., with different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. [6] - Shipping - Related Data: Multiple charts show data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates. [18][21]

经济增长：补贴退潮，车市走弱 (1) 猪价涨势渐颓。1 月 27 日，猪肉平均批发价为 18.7 元/公斤，较 1 月 20 日上涨 1.0%。 (2) 农产品价格指数偏强运行。1 月 27 日，农产品批发价格指数较 1 月 20 日上涨 0.1%。分品种看，鸡蛋（上涨 4.7%）> 猪肉（上涨 1.0%）>羊肉（上涨 0.8%）>牛肉（上涨 0.2%）>水果 (上涨 0.1%）>蔬菜（下跌 0.7%）>鸡肉（下跌 1.3%）。 PPI：油价温和上涨 (1) 油价温和上涨。1 月 27 日，布伦特和 WTI 原油现货价报 69.5 和 62.4 美元/桶，较 1 月 20 日分别上涨 2.0%和上 涨 3.4%。 (2) 铜铝回升。1 月 27 日，LME3 月铜价和铝价较 1 月 20 日分别上涨 0.8%和上涨 1.3%。 (3) 国内商品指数环比转涨。1 月 27 日，南华工业品指数较 1 月 20 日上涨 2.1%；1 月 27 日，CRB 指数较 1 月 20 日 上涨 2.1%。 生产：电厂日耗超出去年同期 通货膨胀：猪价涨势渐颓 CPI：猪价涨势渐颓 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of container shipping to Europe has dropped by 0.11%. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, shipping companies face increasing pressure to secure cargo and need to build rolling spaces for the holiday. Led by Maersk's price cut, pre - holiday freight rates have entered the traditional off - season decline channel. However, the market's focus is on the potential price increase after the Spring Festival due to the rush to transport photovoltaic products. The 04 contract is about 300 points lower than the spot price, and the low valuation supports the market. In 2025, shipping companies announced price increases in March and April, and this year there is an additional rush of exports of photovoltaic products. Before seeing the shipping companies' price - increase plans or a substantial increase in cargo volume from the export rush, the 04 contract is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Contract Volume and Price - **EC2602**: The latest trading price is 1717.5 points, with a decline of 0.47%. The trading volume is 984 (a decrease of 419 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 3495 (a decrease of 730 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 85 [3]. - **EC2604**: The latest trading price is 1193.9 points, with a decline of 0.11%. The trading volume is 25043 (a decrease of 18129 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 38647 (a decrease of 3043 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2611 [3]. - **EC2606**: The latest trading price is 1442.2 points, with a decline of 0.24%. The trading volume is 2566 (a decrease of 1917 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 7912 (an increase of 588 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [3]. - **EC2608**: The latest trading price is 1528.4 points, with an increase of 0.82%. The trading volume is 248 (a decrease of 366 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 1482 (a decrease of 33 compared to the previous period) [3]. - **EC2610**: The latest trading price is 1112 points, with an increase of 0.29%. The trading volume is 1010 (a decrease of 1138 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 8511 (a decrease of 54 compared to the previous period) [3]. - **EC2612**: The latest trading price is 1374.7 points, with an increase of 0.50%. The trading volume is 23 (a decrease of 15 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 123 (a decrease of 1 compared to the previous period) [3]. - **Total**: The total trading volume is 29874, and the total single - sided open interest is 60170. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2696 [3]. Spot Freight Rates - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1859.31 points, with a decline of 4.9% compared to the previous period; the SCFI is $1595/TEU, with a decline of 2.5% compared to the previous period [3]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: The TCI(20GP) is $1688/TEU, with an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous period; the TCI(40GP) is $2837/FEU, with an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous period [3]. Basis and Spread - The basis of the previous trading day is 665.41, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day is 659.11, with a change of 6.3 [4]. - Information on the spreads between different contracts such as EC2604 - EC2602, EC2606 - EC2604, etc. is presented in the form of a chart [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The SCFIS European line index decreased by 4.9% to 1859.31 points, which is the first - phase delivery settlement price of the EC2602 contract. As the Spring Festival approaches, shipping companies face increasing cargo - booking pressure, and pre - holiday freight rates enter the traditional off - season decline channel under Maersk's lead in price cuts. However, the market's focus is on the potential freight rate increase after the Spring Festival due to the rush of photovoltaic product exports. The 04 contract is currently at a discount of about 300 points to the spot, and the low valuation supports the market. Considering the price increase announcements by shipping companies in March and April 2025 and the expected rush of photovoltaic exports this year, the market is not pessimistic about post - holiday freight rates. Before seeing shipping companies' price - increase plans or a substantial increase in cargo volume from the export rush, the 04 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Maersk's new cabin openings [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1726.7 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 0.76%. The成交量 is 565 (a 33 - unit increase), and the持仓量单边 is 4225 (a 176 - unit decrease). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 77 [2]. - **EC2604**: The latest成交价 is 1200.2 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 5.46%. The成交量 is 43172 (a 12391 - unit increase), and the持仓量单边 is 41690 (a 541 - unit increase). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2007 [2]. - **EC2606**: The latest成交价 is 1447.6 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 3.47%. The成交量 is 4483 (a 7 - unit increase), and the持仓量单边 is 7324 (a 1533 - unit increase). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - **EC2608**: The latest成交价 is 1524 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 1.61%. The成交量 is 614 (a 396 - unit increase), and the持仓量单边 is 1515 (a 172 - unit increase) [2]. - **EC2610**: The latest成交价 is 1114.2 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 2.34%. The成交量 is 2148 (a 620 - unit increase), and the持仓量单边 is 8565 (a 195 - unit increase) [2]. - **EC2612**: The latest成交价 is 1373.5 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 0.91%. The成交量 is 38 (a 15 - unit decrease), and the持仓量单边 is 124 (a 3 - unit increase) [2]. - **Total**: The total成交量 is 51020, and the total持仓量 is 63443. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2084 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS index is 1859.31 points, down 4.9% from the previous period; the SCFI is $1595/TEU, down 2.5% from the previous period [4]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: The TCI (20GP) is $1682/TEU, with no change; the TCI (40GP) is $2826/FEU, with no change [4]. Basis Spread - The previous trading - day basis was - 61.9 points, and the basis two trading days ago was 753.99 points, showing a change of - 815.89 points [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market of container shipping to Europe shows signs of peaking and falling. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the SCFIS index has also dropped. Multiple shipping companies have lowered their quotes for late January. However, the sudden change in the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea may boost far - month contracts [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The spot market shows signs of peaking and falling. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped 4.8% to $1595/TEU last weekend, and the SCFIS index dropped 4.9% to 1859.31 points on Monday. Many shipping companies have lowered their quotes for late January [8]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has changed suddenly. Maersk redirected some ships via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. Tensions in the Red Sea region may boost far - month contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - **Market Conditions**: From January 19 to 23, the container shipping market from China was weak. The freight rates of long - haul routes declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 7.4% to 1457.86 points on January 23 [9]. - **Regional Situations**: In the European route, geopolitical risks have increased, and the European economy is not optimistic. In the Mediterranean route, the market freight rate continued to fall. In the North American route, the US economy faces challenges, and the market freight rate has adjusted [9][10]. - **Other News**: The US announced the second - stage plan for the Gaza cease - fire. There are differences between Netanyahu and Trump on this plan. Tensions between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen have escalated [10]. 3. Data Overview 1. Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for the European route dropped 4.9% from January 19 to January 26, and the SCFIS for the US West route dropped 0.8% [12]. 2. Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping futures to Europe on January 26 is provided, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. of different contracts [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush shipping. Before the Spring Festival, the falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, as freight rates decline, shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices, which may also trigger a wave of shipping after the Spring Festival, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered, while geopolitical fluctuations need to be noted. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and shorting opportunities for EC2610 on rallies can be considered. [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1726.7, up 0.52%, with a basis of 227.5, trading volume of 565, and open interest of 4225, a decrease of 176. [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1200.2, up 5.44%, with a basis of 754.0, trading volume of 43172, and open interest of 41690, an increase of 541. [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1447.6, up 2.46%, with a basis of 506.6, trading volume of 4483, and open interest of 7324, an increase of 1333. [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1524.0, up 1.91%, with a basis of 430.2, trading volume of 614, and open interest of 1515, an increase of 172. [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.2, up 1.94%, with a basis of 840.0, trading volume of 2148, and open interest of 8565, an increase of 195. [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 70.9. [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6. [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of January 19, 2026, it was 1954.19 points, down 0.11% from the previous period, and up 8.94% from the period before the previous one. [2] - SCFI (European line): Updated weekly, as of January 23, 2026, it was 1595 US dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period and down 2.50% from the period before the previous one. [2] European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. [4] - Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market. [4] Group 4: News and Geopolitical Information - On January 27, a US official said that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed. [4] - On January 27, US President Trump said that the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" as he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement. [4] - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. Iran warned the US that if it launched a military strike, it would attack US aircraft carriers. [4] - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority said that this weekend was a sensitive period. On January 25, it notified several foreign airlines that Israel might enter a "sensitive period" around January 30. It emphasized that if the safety assessment showed that a reasonable safety level could not be ensured, Israel would immediately close its airspace and prioritize the departure of foreign flights. [4] - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House ordered an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could launch a military operation "within one or two days" in theory. [4]

集运欧线数据日报 2026/1/26 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌0.1%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1595美元/TEU，环比下跌81美元/TEU，基本对应于 01.26-02.01期间的欧线订舱价，反映1月底船司运价的继续下调。考虑到春节逐渐临近，揽货压力也将逐渐增 加，同时也需为春节假期期间搭建滚动舱位，节前运价进入淡季下降通道。由于光伏等产品出口退税政策调整 或引发4月1日前相关产品的抢出口，带来淡季货量的相对韧性，再加上2025年3月4月船司曾表价宣涨挺价，市 场对于4月运价估值并没有很悲观。参考去年8月9月的抢出口对运价的对冲程度以及抢出口集中大量出货的滞 后可能性，再加上最新船期统计1月底至节前运力投放仍相对充裕，节前或偏向运行偏弱，关注后续出口抢运 情况以及马士基的新开舱。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 ...