Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russian - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand slowdown in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits. Also, prepare for the September Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol currently has a high valuation and weakening supply - demand fundamentals, facing price pressure [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position allocation on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price has rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended. Consider a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 [9]. - PVC has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is advisable to wait and see, observing whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up [10]. - For benzene ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upwards [14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [17]. - For PX, with high load maintenance and strong demand from new PTA installations, it is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to consider buying on dips following crude oil [20]. - For PTA, although there will be inventory build - up in August, due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, it is recommended to consider buying on dips following PX [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.90, or 1.38%, to $64.27; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.72, or 1.06%, to $66.96; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.90 yuan, or 0.57%, to 505.9 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.03 million barrels to 423.66 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 227.08 million barrels, a 0.58% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 112.97 million barrels, a 0.50% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.24 million barrels to 19.80 million barrels, a 1.19% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 44.36 million barrels, a 2.24% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side enterprise profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventories are accelerating the build - up, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously falling [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 22 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 30 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly decreased but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to rise as plants resume operation. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer plants are starting autumn fertilizer production, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, and the seasonal pattern usually shows an upward trend in the second half of the year, along with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, up 0.46 million tons, or 0.4%; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.5 million tons, up 1.2%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48.9 million tons, down 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao was 50.85 (+ 0.29) million tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 9 yuan to 5051 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 131 (+ 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 138 (- 3) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 76%, down 3.2%; the ethylene method was 79%, up 8.7%. The overall downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 million tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 million tons (+ 3.9). Enterprise comprehensive profits reached a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure, decreasing maintenance, and high production levels. Domestic downstream operating rates were at a low level, and Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [10]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and although the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, the start - up rate of benzene ethylene has continued to rise. Port inventories have been significantly reduced, and the overall operating rate of three S products in the demand side has fluctuated upwards [14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. Traders' inventories are oscillating at a high level, and demand for agricultural films is at a low level. In August, there is a large production capacity release pressure, and the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is only 45 million tons of planned production capacity release. In the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [17]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 60 yuan to 6794 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 844 dollars, with a basis of 153 yuan (- 14) and a 9 - 1 spread of 50 yuan (+ 22) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The load of PX in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The load of downstream PTA has decreased in the short - term, but the inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates are about to end the off - season. New PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4724 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4680 yuan, with a basis of - 21 yuan (- 2) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 30 yuan (+ 10) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load decreased by 7.1%. Some plants have reduced their loads or stopped production, and new plants have been put into operation. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Inventories have been increasing, and the processing fee has limited operating space. Due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, there is less negative feedback pressure [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 15 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 28 yuan to 4491 yuan, with a basis of 80 yuan (+ 1) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 21 (+ 6) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load decreased by 0.7%, and some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of coal increased. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has reached the short - term expected target price. With a bearish macro trend and geopolitical bullish expectations still in place, it is recommended to take profits and then wait and observe [3]. - For methanol, it is currently over - valued and the supply - demand balance is weakening, so the price is under pressure [5]. - For urea, it remains in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is not advisable to be overly bearish [7]. - For rubber, considering the expected bearish US non - farm data and the overall decline of industrial products, there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to wait and observe for now, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [21]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the short term [24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is changing from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures closed down $2.10, a 3.03% decline, at $67.26; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $3.03, a 4.18% decline, at $69.52; INE main crude oil futures closed down 3.50 yuan, a 0.66% decline, at 527.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: According to the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.76 million barrels, a 3.79% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 12.91 million barrels, a 1.26% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.23 million barrels, a 1.70% decline; naphtha inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 5.28 million barrels, a 4.08% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.61 million barrels to 6.49 million barrels, a 10.47% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 40.66 million barrels, a 0.41% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 1, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The supply - side corporate profit is still high, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand side is weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Overall, it is over - valued and the supply - demand balance is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 1, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1709 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell, with a basis of +41 [7]. - **Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing but still at a medium - high level year - on - year. The corporate profit is poor, and the operating rate is expected to increase. The demand side has insufficient export docking and the domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Overall, it is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell significantly, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in potential production cuts and improved demand expectations, while bears think the macro outlook is uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and production cuts may be less than expected. The tire factory operating rate decreased, and the inventory is under pressure [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Considering the expected bearish US non - farm data and the overall decline of industrial products, wait and observe for now. Consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 26 yuan to 5015 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (-30) yuan/ton, the basis was -95 (-4) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -136 (-1) yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate increased, the demand side's downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory increased. It has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [14]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [16]. - **Analysis**: The short - term macro positive expectations have landed, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - side operating rate fluctuated upward [16][17]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price fell, and the basis weakened [20]. - **Analysis**: The short - term macro positive expectations have landed, and the cost side still has support. The valuation has limited downward space. The trade inventory is at a high level, and the demand side is in the off - season. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price fell, and the basis weakened [21]. - **Analysis**: The Shandong refinery profit stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side operating rate decreased seasonally. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 116 yuan to 6812 yuan, the PX CFR fell 12 dollars to 846 dollars, and the basis was 160 (+18) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 22 (-42) yuan [23]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate remains high, the downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased, and the overall operating rate decreased. However, the PTA inventory is low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the short term [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 64 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was -13 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was -38 (-6) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 9 yuan to 4405 yuan, the East China spot price fell 23 yuan to 4480 yuan, the basis was 73 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was -34 (-7) yuan [26]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The fundamental situation is changing from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side layout for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption season [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is expected to increase, and the demand side may turn weak, so methanol may face downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply and demand are weak, and there is no significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, the price is consolidating after a decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build-up pattern. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the inventory to build up. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.34%, at $69.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.92, or 1.25%, at $72.55; INE main crude oil futures closed up 1.70 yuan, or 0.32%, at 531.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.22 million barrels to 12.75 million barrels, a 1.72% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.59 million barrels to 8.46 million barrels, a 7.47% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 24.67 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 1.33 million barrels to 45.87 million barrels, a 3.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of -10 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and is expected to increase, while the demand side may turn weak, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The inventory level has decreased [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +46 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. Exports are an important source of demand growth. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are consolidating after a significant decline, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Tire factory operating rates have declined, and the demand is in a seasonal off-season. The supply reduction may be less than expected. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Wait and see for now, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 118 yuan to 5041 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 4950 (-110) yuan/ton, with a basis of -91 (+8) yuan/ton and a 9-1 spread of -135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply has increased, the port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand has increased slightly [14]. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton, strengthening 37 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 47 yuan/ton, strengthening 27 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased slightly, the inventory situation is mixed, and the downstream demand is weak. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 56 yuan to 6928 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 858 dollars, with a basis of 142 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of 64 yuan (-42) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate is high, the inventory is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates have recovered. The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan to 4808 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan to 4825 yuan, with a basis of -15 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of -32 yuan (-34) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand side is about to end the off-season, and the inventory has increased. The processing fee has limited room for operation [22]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 24 yuan to 4503 yuan, with a basis of 68 yuan (+2) and a 9-1 spread of -27 yuan (+1) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the port inventory has decreased, and the valuation is relatively high. The fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the recent "anti-involution" policies are beneficial in curbing low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry and are actively promoting a shift from homogeneous price wars to high-quality development [1][3] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its prosperity, with a focus on the revival of terminal product demand, increasing industry concentration, and investment opportunities in segments with industrial moats and potential cyclical rebounds, such as refining, ethylene, polyester filament, PVC, organic silicon, battery materials, glyphosate, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced significant pressure since 2022 due to demand contraction and supply shocks, with the CCPI continuing to decline by 5.57% from early 2025 to July 24, 2025 [2] - From January to May 2025, the revenue of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 2.10% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 4.70% [2] - The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.90% in the second quarter of 2025, down by 1.60 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The capital expenditure in the large chemical sector has significantly declined, with the capital expenditure growth rate for the oil and petrochemical/basic chemical sectors turning negative at -6.6% and -15.0%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to reshape the petrochemical industry landscape, addressing the pressures of overcapacity and homogeneous competition [3] - Refining is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to demand downturn and electrification, with potential policy measures to reduce inefficient capacity and encourage integrated development [3] - The ethylene sector faces oversupply and competition, but controlling production and improving quality could alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 4 - In the battery materials sector, rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand has led to significant supply pressure, but "anti-involution" policies may guide healthier industry development [4] - The organic silicon industry is nearing the end of its capacity expansion phase, with recent supply disruptions and sustained demand growth expected to ease short-term supply pressures [4] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve the supply landscape in the soda ash sector by accelerating the exit of outdated processes and capacities [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit the upside potential of crude oil. A short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips, and left-side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when oil prices plunge [2]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.05, or 1.52%, to $70.3/barrel; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.71, or 0.98%, to $73.47/barrel; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.30 yuan, or 0.24%, to 529.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 426.69 million barrels, a 1.84% increase; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.74 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 228.41 million barrels, a 1.18% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 3.64 million barrels to 113.54 million barrels, a 3.31% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.20 million barrels to 20.04 million barrels, a 0.97% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 2.11 million barrels to 43.39 million barrels, a 4.63% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2419 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of -9 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream开工率 has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure is expected to increase marginally. MTO profits have declined again, port开工率 remains stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and methanol may face downward pressure. Port inventories have increased, year-on-year inventories are low, and overall inventory levels have decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1742 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工率 continues to decline, and enterprise profits have rebounded but are still at a relatively low level. As the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improves, the cost support for urea gradually strengthens. The开工率 of compound fertilizers has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and port inventories continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have oscillated downward after a significant correction. Supply concerns have eased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather conditions in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, and the current situation of rubber plantations may lead to a reduction in rubber production. Rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macroeconomic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the reduction in supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider a long-short spread operation on RU2601 and RU2509 [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5060 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was -99 (+73) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -137 (-13) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall开工率 of PVC is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. The demand side is weak, and downstream开工率 is at a five-year low and still in the off-season. Exports are affected by India's anti-dumping policy. The cost support has weakened. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices have both risen, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term macroeconomic positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with significant room for upward repair. The开工率 of pure benzene has declined slightly, but supply remains ample. The开工率 of styrene has continued to increase. Port inventories have increased significantly, and demand is in the seasonal off-season. It is expected that the BZN spread will repair in the short term, and styrene prices may follow the cost side and oscillate upward after port inventories are reduced [13][14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen [16]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. Spot prices have risen, and PE valuations have limited downward space. Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. Demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the overall开工率 is oscillating downward. The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward movement to high maintenance boosting inventory reduction. There is a large capacity release pressure in August, and polyethylene prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profits of Shandong refineries have stopped falling and rebounded, and the开工率 is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off-season, and downstream开工率 is oscillating downward. There is only 450,000 tons of planned capacity to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that polypropylene prices will follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July [17]. PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 42 yuan to 6984 yuan, and PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 866 dollars. The basis was 147 yuan (+25), and the 9-1 spread was 106 yuan (-2) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: PX开工率 remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the开工率 of the downstream is relatively high. Inventory levels are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is still small in the short term. New PTA plants are planned to be put into operation soon, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. Valuations are currently at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [19][21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4860 yuan. The basis was -10 yuan (-5), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (-4) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA开工率 is 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. Downstream开工率 has increased, and terminal开工率 has also recovered. Inventories have increased slightly. PTA processing fees have limited room for operation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [22]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 17 yuan to 4527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+4), and the 9-1 spread was -28 yuan (-3) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has increased, and downstream开工率 has also increased. Port inventories have decreased. Valuations are relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Saudi Arabian plants have all restarted, and the expected arrival volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].