| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, still in the contraction zone[4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone[4] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points, but remains below the levels seen in March (49.0%) and April[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months[4] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium enterprises' PMI fell to 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points[5] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw materials price index is at 46.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressure[4] - The finished goods price index is at 44.7%, also down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting weak downstream demand[4] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index is at 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The production activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved business sentiment[6] - The overall economic environment shows a structural characteristic where supply exceeds demand, necessitating policy support to alleviate price pressures[4]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250603 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.从合约货与工业企业利润的关系，寻找库存去化与订单景气的方向——资产配置周报 （2025/05/26-2025/05/30） ➢ 2.抢出口有支撑，但强度相对温和——国内观察：2025年5月PMI ➢ 1.美国4月PCE出炉 ➢ 2.特朗普称美国钢铁进口税提高至50% ➢ 3.工业和信息化部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度 ➢ 4.美国延长对中国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the macro level shows a weakening signal, the fundamental contradiction is weak, and the domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral. Attention should be paid to the possible slight increase in inventory, which may suppress the absolute price [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, there is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the inflection point of accelerated accumulation is expected to appear in early June. Attention should be paid to the node of inventory change from decline to accumulation, and short positions are recommended to be held. The domestic - foreign positive spread can be partially closed at an appropriate time [2]. - For nickel, the supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - For lead, the price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply is expected to decrease in May. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16700 next week [6]. - For tin, affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state currently, but there is large potential supply pressure in the future. In the long - term, the price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the price falls this week. In the short term, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline after fluctuations next week. In the medium - long term, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decline significantly, the price will still fluctuate weakly [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 30, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 101, and the LME inventory decreased by 2500 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Overseas, a large amount of Russian copper is extracted from LME warehouses, and the LME cash - 3M spread widens. Domestically, the cross - month spread and spot premium remain stable, and the downstream demand may weaken. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Kamora Copper Mine, which is expected to resume in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 1, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 16856 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2225 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic TC rises, and the smelting output in June is expected to increase by 25,000 tons compared with May. The domestic demand elasticity is limited, and the overseas demand recovers slightly. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the LME inventory declines slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 550, the spot import return decreased by 874.57, and the LME inventory decreased by 762 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coil, 304 hot - rolled coil, 201 cold - rolled coil, 430 cold - rolled coil, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2375 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply side has problems such as raw material shortage and low profit, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak overall demand [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot import return decreased by 1720.64, the spot export return increased by 2414.63, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is limited by the slowdown of the electronics and photovoltaic industries [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 615 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market start - up rate increases slightly. The demand from the organic silicon industry increases slightly, but the overall demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level, and there is large potential supply pressure in the future [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 427 [14]. - **Market Situation**: The price falls this week. The downstream demand is weak, the supply side has production resumption and reduction situations, and the inventory accumulation speed slows down. In the short term, the price is expected to decline after fluctuations [14].

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-6-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价小幅冲高后回落，伦铜周跌 1.22%至 9497 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77600 元/吨，端午 假期间特朗普威胁提高钢铁和铝关税导致美铜走强，贵金属和原油价格亦上涨，伦铜上涨 1.24%。产 业层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.2 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 0.7 至 10.6 万吨，LME 库存 减少 1.5 至 15.0 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.5 至 16.4 万吨。上海保税区库 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent significant decline in tin prices, with macroeconomic factors indicating a slowdown in US economic growth and prolonged maintenance of current interest rates by the Federal Reserve [1] - Domestic policies promoting equipment upgrades and old-for-new exchanges are boosting demand for non-ferrous metals in manufacturing and consumption sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Import Dynamics - Myanmar accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports, with imported tin ore constituting 47% of domestic supply [1] - In April 2025, China's tin ore imports were 0.98 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.22% [1] - Cumulative tin ore imports from January to April 2025 totaled 3.67 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98% [1] - The ban on tin mining in Myanmar since August 2023 has led to persistently low import volumes, exacerbated by unstable import profitability and regional conflicts [1] Group 3: Processing and Refining Impact - Tight supply of tin ore has resulted in a 40% drop in processing fees, with Yunnan's tin concentrate processing fees falling from 17,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [1] - Processing fees are now near the cost line for some enterprises, leading to production cuts [1] - As of May 23, 2025, the operating rate of tin refining plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.44%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points from the previous week [2] Group 4: Demand and Industry Trends - Tin solder demand accounts for 68% of the market, with the semiconductor sector representing 80% of tin solder demand [2] - In April 2025, domestic tin solder enterprises had an operating rate of 76.7%, a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations [2] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with an expected annual growth of 11%, potentially driving global tin demand up by 4.4% [2] Group 5: Inventory and Price Outlook - Domestic tin market is entering a destocking phase, with Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory at 8,445 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous week [3] - LME tin inventory also decreased by 70 tons to 2,665 tons [3] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, semiconductor industry growth provides some support for the tin market [3] - Current prices are approaching tariff and cost lows, with potential for strategic buying below 258,000 yuan/ton, targeting mid-term and long-term prices of 290,000 yuan/ton and 330,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]

Core Points - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited has successfully issued its first phase of technology innovation bonds for the year 2025, raising a total of 800 million RMB [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 3 years, with an interest rate of 2.03% and a face value of 100 RMB per 100 RMB [1] - The issuance was approved during the annual shareholders' meeting held on May 8, 2023, where the company was authorized to register and issue medium-term notes up to 5 billion RMB [1] Summary by Sections Bond Issuance Details - Bond Name: Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited 2025 First Phase Technology Innovation Bond [1] - Bond Code: 102582195.IB [1] - Total Issued Amount: 800 million RMB, matching the planned issuance [1] - Interest Rate: 2.03% [1] - Issuance Date: May 29, 2025 [1] - Maturity Date: May 29, 2028 [1] Approval and Registration - The company received approval from the China Interbank Market Dealers Association to register the medium-term notes with a total amount of 5 billion RMB [1] - The registration is valid for 2 years from the date of the notice [1] Underwriters - Bookrunner: Shanghai Bank Co., Ltd. [1] - Lead Underwriters: Shanghai Bank Co., Ltd., CITIC Bank Co., Ltd., Beijing Bank Co., Ltd., China Everbright Bank Co., Ltd., Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. [1]

报 告 正 文 PMI 表现如何？ 5 月全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.5% ，升至近五年同期中位数附近，较上月上行 0.5 个百分点。 主要分项较上月多有回升，其中 供给相对需求增幅更大，外需相对内需改善更明显 ；大企业升至线上运行， 原材料价格和产成品价格稳中略降。本月制造业 PMI 上行主要来自于 供需两端的同步改善 ，而生产回暖是其 回升的最大动力， 主因中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和 ，带动外需回暖，新出口订单低位反弹，而抢出口同步带动 生产改善 。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是 从行业来看， 新动能市场需求增长较为突出 。装备制造业和高技术制造业的 新订单指数均在 52% 以上；消费品制造业需求也稳定上升，新出口订单指数上升超过 6 个百分点至扩张区间 。二是价格指数降幅显著收窄 。原材料价格和产成品价格仅较上月小幅下降 0.1 个百分点，环比降幅均较上 月明显收窄 。三是供大于求局面仍然存在 ，新订单和生产指数差距有所扩大，后续仍待稳增长政策加码提振 内需 。 制造业 PMI 线下回升 。本月全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.5% ，较上月上行 0.5 个百分点。主要分项多有回升， 生产升至线上，新订 ...

5月份制造业采购经理指数回升 非制造业商务活动指数延续扩张 (一)企业生产加快。生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有 所加快。新订单指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.6个百分点。从行业看，农副食品加工、专用设备、铁路船 舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于54.0%，供需两端较快增长；纺织、化学纤维及橡 胶塑料制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工、有色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点，产需 释放不足。 (二)大型企业PMI升至临界点以上。大型企业PMI为50.7%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，重返扩张区间， 其生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.5%和52.5%，比上月上升1.7和3.0个百分点；中型企业PMI为 47.5%，比上月下降1.3个百分点，景气水平回落；小型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，景 气水平有所改善。 (三)高技术制造业延续扩张。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为50.9%，连续4个月保持在扩张区间， 延续较好发展态势；装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.2%和50.2%，比上月上升1.6和0.8个百分 点，景气水平均 ...

2025年5月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 （四）进出口指数均有回升。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，比上月上升2.8和3.7个 百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启，进出口情况有所改善。 （五）市场预期改善。生产经营活动预期指数为52.5%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业企业对近期市 场发展信心总体保持稳定。其中，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备 等行业生产经营活动预期指数均持续位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数延续扩张 5月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业总体延续 扩张态势。 5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上 月下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出保持扩 张。 一、制造业采购经理指数回升 5月份，制造业PM ...