Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "5.7" to the company, suggesting it is worth attention [12]. Core Insights - The company is a high-quality cathode copper manufacturer, ranking fifth among Chinese producers and is the only Chinese company in the top five in both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia [1]. - The company has experienced rapid sales growth, with total sales increasing from 7,056.7 tons in 2022 to 19,868.9 tons in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +67.8% [2]. - The global cathode copper market is expected to see a supply shortage of approximately 5.8 million tons by 2029, which is likely to drive up copper prices [3]. - The company benefits from a strong business presence in resource-rich regions of Africa, particularly in DRC and Zambia, and has a strategic capacity layout that aligns with China's "going out" strategy [4]. Company Overview - The company produced approximately 16,000 tons of cathode copper in DRC and 5,000 tons in Zambia in 2024, with a market share of 0.9% in DRC and ranking first in Zambia [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was approximately RMB 637.3 million, RMB 675.7 million, and RMB 1,769.8 million, respectively, with a CAGR of +66.7% [2]. - The company has four production facilities, including two copper smelters in Zambia and one in DRC, and is constructing a cobalt processing plant in China [12]. Industry Status and Outlook - The downstream applications for cathode copper include deep processing enterprises, trading companies, and sectors such as new energy and electronics manufacturing [3]. - Global cathode copper production is projected to grow from 21.9 million tons in 2025 to 24.7 million tons by 2029, with a CAGR of 3.0% [3]. - The average copper price in China is expected to rise from RMB 749,000 in 2024 to RMB 775,000 in 2025 [3]. Use of Proceeds - Approximately 80% of the funds raised (or HKD 834.1 million) will be used to expand core business operations, including enhancing the wet metallurgy capacity of the DRC copper smelter and increasing cobalt hydroxide production lines [6]. Cornerstone Investors - Key cornerstone investors include Glencore, Stoneylake Global, North Rock, and others, with total subscriptions amounting to USD 60.255 million, representing 42.50% of the shares offered [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company announced maintenance and equipment upgrades for its Shifang non-ferrous metal and phosphate chemical subsidiaries, which will temporarily halt production for specific periods to enhance operational safety, product quality, and efficiency [1]. Group 1: Shifang Non-Ferrous Metal Subsidiary - The Shifang non-ferrous metal subsidiary has a zinc smelting production capacity of 100,000 tons per year and a zinc alloy production capacity of 100,000 tons per year [1]. - The zinc smelting facility will undergo maintenance and upgrades starting January 2026, with a planned downtime of 5 months, aiming to resume production in early June 2026 [1]. - The maintenance is necessary due to aging equipment and aims to ensure safe, stable, and efficient operations [1]. Group 2: Shifang Phosphate Chemical Subsidiary - The Shifang phosphate chemical subsidiary has a phosphate production capacity of 420,000 tons per year and a compound fertilizer production capacity of 300,000 tons per year [1]. - The phosphate production facility will also undergo maintenance starting January 2026, with a planned downtime of 1 month, expected to resume production in early February 2026 [1]. - This maintenance aligns with the cyclical nature of the chemical industry and aims to improve safety, product quality, and reduce production costs [1]. Group 3: Production Continuity and Strategy - During the downtime of the zinc smelting facility, the zinc alloy production will continue, with the company sourcing zinc ingots externally to ensure raw material supply [2]. - The compound fertilizer production will remain operational while the phosphate facility is under maintenance [2]. - The company plans to coordinate production schedules with maintenance progress to ensure timely and high-quality completion of the upgrades [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - and long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The future copper price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to gradually go long on Shanghai copper at low prices and consider buying out - of - the - money call options in the far - month [3][13]. - Zinc is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation pattern. It is advisable to go long at low prices or consider a bull spread [4][13]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy, and use out - of - the - money put options for protection [5][14]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see or buy at low prices, and pay attention to the impact of other non - ferrous metals, mine conditions, and policy regulations. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [7]. - Lead is expected to continue to oscillate. A double - selling strategy can be considered [8][15]. - Nickel and stainless steel are likely to continue a relatively strong trend. It is recommended to go long at low prices, but also pay attention to the impact of the US dollar's rise on non - ferrous metals [9][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: During the New Year's Day holiday, non - ferrous metals in the overseas market showed mixed performance. China's manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range, which is positive for industrial product demand. Geopolitical situations fluctuated, and attention should be paid to whether the safe - haven demand will lead to a rise in the US dollar and affect non - ferrous metals. After the holiday, pay attention to the performance of nickel and aluminum [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is affected by factors such as improved US dollar liquidity, inventory contradictions, and valuation repair. The downstream acceptance of high copper prices is increasing, but the supply of copper concentrates in 2026 may be tight. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with a short - term upper pressure range of 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot supply is tightening, and it is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. The upper pressure is around 23,500 - 23,800 yuan, and the lower support is around 22,800 - 23,000 yuan. It is advisable to go long at low prices [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Shanghai Aluminum**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan [5][14]. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short at high prices, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan [5][14]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan [5][14]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see or buy at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan [7][14]. - **Lead**: It is expected to continue to oscillate, with a lower support around 16,700 - 16,800 yuan and an upper pressure around 17,500 - 17,700 yuan. A double - selling strategy can be considered [8][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Nickel**: It is likely to continue a relatively strong trend, with an upper pressure around 135,000 - 136,000 yuan and a lower support around 128,000 - 130,000 yuan. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9][15]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to continue to rise, with an upper pressure around 13,000 - 13,200 yuan and a lower support around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan. It is advisable to go long at low prices [9][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as copper closing at 98,240 yuan with a 0.15% increase, and zinc closing at 23,275 yuan with a 0.45% decrease [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price at 99,430 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 23,330 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [20]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Graphs related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends of each metal [22][23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Graphs related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spreads of copper, zinc, aluminum, and other metals, which can be used for arbitrage analysis [54][59][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Graphs related to the options of each non - ferrous metal are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest, which can be used for options trading analysis [72][74][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - **China**: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - **US**: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - **Alumina**: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].

1月4日晚间，株洲冶炼集团股份有限公司（以下简称"株冶集团（600961）"）在官方微信公众号发布消 息：2025年，公司在生产经营、技术创新、降本增效等领域取得积极进展，全年主要产品产量、成本管 控均完成年度目标，以实打实的业绩书写高质量发展崭新篇章。 产品产量是株冶集团全年工作的核心抓手。2025年，株冶集团生产技术部统筹推进长周期稳定运行，创 新推行标准化清单管控模式，制定《系统稳定运行负面清单》《高温季节管控清单》等制度，层层压实 责任。株冶集团全年析出锌及锌产品产量均完成年度目标，创投产以来最高水平；株冶集团旗下主要基 地均超额完成年度任务；综合回收领域多点突破，产品产量稳步提升，彰显"吃干榨尽"的资源利用理 念。 他进一步表示："2026年是'十五五'开局关键节点，公司持续锚定'绿色智能高效的锌冶炼行业标杆'定 位，深化产能提升、技术创新、成本优化三大主线。2026年，将向着产量更高、产品品质更优的目标迈 进，持续攻关混合焙砂可溶锌率等重点指标，推进电力系统升级、工艺优化改造等关键项目。" 湖南大学经济与贸易学院副院长曹二保教授向《证券日报》记者表示："株冶集团2025年交出的这份亮 眼成绩单，是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of four local standards in Guangxi related to occupational disease prevention and control, which will be implemented on March 30, 2026 [1][2] - The standards include guidelines for stainless steel production, lead-zinc and copper smelting industries, internet-based nursing services, and medical helicopter emergency transport [1][2] - The lead-zinc and copper smelting standards focus on engineering and personal protective measures to enhance occupational health for workers in these sectors [1] - The "Internet + Nursing Services" standard aims to improve home care for discharged patients and those with mobility issues through a combination of online applications and offline services [1] Group 2 - The "Medical Helicopter Emergency Transport Standard" is the first local standard in Guangxi for the aviation medical rescue field, outlining specific requirements for each stage of emergency transport [2] - This standard is significant for promoting the large-scale development of medical helicopter emergency rescue and improving the overall medical rescue system in Guangxi [2]

Core Viewpoint - ST Shengtun has been penalized by the Xiamen Securities Regulatory Bureau for recognizing revenue improperly, leading to false financial reporting during the period from December 2021 to the first half of 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The company received an administrative penalty including a warning and a fine of 3 million yuan due to violations of the Securities Law [4]. - Relevant personnel involved in the violations also received warnings and fines [4]. Group 2: Investor Compensation - Investors who purchased ST Shengtun (600711) stock between April 26, 2022, and April 21, 2024, and held the stock at the close on April 21, 2024, are eligible for compensation [2][4]. - The necessary documentation for claims includes original trading statements, copies of investor identification, and confirmation of securities account status from the brokerage [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to remain high but with a slowdown in the upward trend, influenced by factors such as loose financial market liquidity in the US, mild policy stimulus in China, geopolitical disturbances, tight mine - end supply, and tariff expectations. The expected trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 97,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,800 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner, driven by high - priced precious metals and copper, relatively low overseas aluminum inventories, and supply - side disturbances. The expected trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,980 - 3,050 dollars/ton [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the market returns to industrial reality, with rising lead ore inventory, high primary lead production, and weakening downstream demand [8] - Zinc prices may give back some gains in the short term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the smelting profit has stabilized [10] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment in the short term. With weak demand and expected supply improvement, but low downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices may have reached the bottom in the short term, affected by Indonesia's policy. With large excess pressure, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 16,500 dollars/ton [14] - For lithium carbonate, short - term capital games will dominate the market. With positive expectations for future supply and demand but a weak first - quarter demand, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The expected trading range for the GZEE lithium carbonate main contract is 117,500 - 124,500 yuan/ton [18] - Alumina prices are recommended to wait and see in the short term. With the recovery of ore transportation and over - capacity in the smelting end, there are difficulties in continuous rebound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] - Stainless steel prices may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. With rising raw material prices and inventory reduction, it is recommended to consider going long at low prices while paying attention to policy implementation [24] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, supported by strong cost and supply - side disturbances, but with average demand [26] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: On the first trading day of 2026, LME copper prices rose first and then fell, closing at 12,460 dollars/ton, down 0.3% from before the domestic holiday. SHFE copper main contract closed at 98,240 yuan/ton before the holiday. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 145,325 tons, and the cash/3M premium strengthened. Domestic pre - holiday SHFE weekly inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 145,000 tons, and daily warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons to 82,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong regions narrowed, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot decreased to 800 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,300 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. Chile's copper production in November decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons [1] - **Strategy View**: With loose US financial market liquidity, mild domestic policy stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances, copper prices are expected to remain high but with a slowdown in the upward trend. The expected trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 97,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,800 dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the New Year's Day holiday, LME aluminum prices remained strong, closing at 3,021 dollars/ton, up 0.8%. SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 22,925 yuan/ton before the holiday. The pre - holiday weighted contract position of SHFE aluminum decreased by 7,000 to 666,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 82,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 210 yuan/ton, and the transaction was weak. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 to 509,000 tons, and the cash/3M discount narrowed to 24.9 dollars/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Affected by overseas geopolitical factors, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. With high aluminum prices suppressing downstream production, but low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances, the expected trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,980 - 3,050 dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: Last Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.86% at 17,356 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 86,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. During the holiday, LME lead fell 1.02% to 1,994 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 76,800 tons. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged at 17,400 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: With rising lead ore inventory, high primary lead production, and weakening downstream demand, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.43% at 23,305 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 195,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 23,300 yuan/ton. During the holiday, LME zinc rose slightly by 0.34% to 3,127 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 106,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 8,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons [9] - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices may give back some gains in the short term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the smelting profit has stabilized [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 31, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 322,920 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi maintained a high - level operation, but there were problems such as low processing fees and shortage of raw materials. In terms of demand, although the downstream consumer electronics entered the off - season, the tin solder production and operation rate were stable supported by emerging industries. The spot market demand was weak, and the inventory increased for three consecutive weeks before decreasing [11] - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment in the short term. With weak demand and expected supply improvement, but low downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, SHFE nickel main contract closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel pig iron continued to rise [13] - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have reached the bottom in the short term, affected by Indonesia's policy. With large excess pressure, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 16,500 dollars/ton [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On December 31, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 116,867 yuan, up 0.41% from the previous working day and down 3.35% for the week. The SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate CIF price increased by 2.65% for the week [17] - **Strategy View**: Short - term capital games will dominate the market. With positive expectations for future supply and demand but a weak first - quarter demand, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The expected trading range for the GZEE lithium carbonate main contract is 117,500 - 124,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 31, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.16% to 2,724 yuan/ton, and the single - side trading position decreased by 51,400 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,600 yuan/ton, at a discount of 178 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 308 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 83 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 900 tons to 156,900 tons. The CIF price of Guinea and Australia ore remained unchanged [20] - **Strategy View**: Alumina prices are recommended to wait and see in the short term. With the recovery of ore transportation and over - capacity in the smelting end, there are difficulties in continuous rebound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The single - side position increased by 18,307 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices such as high - nickel pig iron rose, and the futures inventory decreased. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [23] - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. With rising raw material prices and inventory reduction, it is recommended to consider going long at low prices while paying attention to policy implementation [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the New Year's Day holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy strengthened. The main AD2603 contract closed up 1.77% at 21,855 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased, and the trading volume decreased but remained at a relatively high level. The inventory of the SHFE increased, the domestic main market inventory decreased, and the factory inventory increased [26] - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, supported by strong cost and supply - side disturbances, but with average demand [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, tin prices were high and strong. In terms of supply, the operation of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan remained stable at a high level. In terms of demand, the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by new - energy vehicles and AI servers. In the spot market, downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak purchasing willingness. Tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. High prices significantly inhibited tin demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate and weaken in the future [11][13] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar (the largest source) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (the second - largest source) changed differently [12] - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, advanced, and the export volume increased significantly. However, the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises in Yunnan still existed, and the short - term operating rate remained stable with limited upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to the significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin remained at a low level. Overall, it is difficult to further improve the operating level of smelters in the short term [12] - Demand side: At the end of the year, the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season, but the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by new - energy vehicles and AI servers. In November, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the现货 market, downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, resulting in a three - week increase in tin inventory. As of December 26, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,367 tons, an increase of 186 tons from the previous Friday [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) [19][20] 3.3 Cost Side - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [24][26] 3.4 Supply Side - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales rebounded slightly, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. The report also presented data graphs of domestic computer production, smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell production, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [43][44][46] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [60]

跨市矛盾修复， 重回产业弱现实 锌月报 2026/01/04 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 美国财政及债务 图1：美国当月财政收支及赤字MA12（亿美元） 图2：美国国债总额/美国GDP比值（%）及国债总额（万亿美元） 资料来源：Wind、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：Wind、五矿期货研究中心 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 财政赤字MA12 财政支出MA12 财政收入MA12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 国债/GDP（左） 美国国债总额（右） 美联储资产负债表 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 ...