中银（成都）律师事务所 关于四川宏达股份有限公司 成都中银（2025）第 008-026 号 www.zhongyinlawyer.com 北京中银（成都）律师事务所 关于四川宏达股份有限公司 法律意见书 致：四川宏达股份有限公司 北京中银（成都）律师事务所（以下简称"中银律师"）接受四川宏达股份 有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的委托，根据《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下 简称《证券法》）《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称《公司法》）、中国证 券监督管理委员会《上市公司股东会规则》（以下简称《股东会规则》）等有关 法律法规以及《四川宏达股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）的有关 规定，指派律师出席公司 2025 年第三次临时股东会（以下简称"本次股东会"） 并就本次股东会的相关事项发表意见。 为出具本法律意见书，中银律师审查了本次股东会的相关资料，包括但不限 于公司召开 2025 年第三次临时股东会的通知、公司第十届监事会第十二次会议 决议及公告、公司第十届董事会第十七次会议决议及公告等文件资料，同时听取 了公司董事会秘书就本次股东会有关事实的陈述和说明。公司已向中银律师做出 保证和承诺，保证公司向中银律师 ...

电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 证监许可【2011】1292 号 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 15 日星期四 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

文字早评 2025/05/15 星期四 前一交易日沪指+0.86%，创指+1.01%，科创 50+0.41%，北证 50+1.08%，上证 50+1.69%，沪深 300+1.21%， 中证 500+0.30%，中证 1000+0.15%，中证 2000+0.11%，万得微盘-0.28%。两市合计成交 13167 亿，较上 一日+252 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、中国 4 月社融增量 1.16 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差扩大。 2、中美互降关税后，直击外贸一线：企业抢发货，货代频"爆单"，港口货运高峰或下周出现。 3、国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，听取民营企业意见建议。 宏观金融类 股指 4、美国调整对华加征关税。 资金面：融资额+13.26 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.10bp 至 1.4050%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.99bp 至 3.0473%，十年期国债利率+0.92bp 至 1.6787%，信用利差-1.91bp 至 137bp；美国 10 年期利率+4.00bp 至 4.49%，中美利差-3.08bp 至-281bp。 市盈 ...

| 赣州市豪鹏科技有限公司 | | | | | 2024 | 年度 1-6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 月财务报表附注 | | | | | | | | | | | 本期发生额 | | | 上年发 | | 生额 | | | | | | | | _210347 | 项 | 目_210347 | | | | | | | | | 收入 | 成本 | 收 | | | 入 | 成本 | | | | | | | 交通运输业 | | | | | | | | 销售业务 | | | 95,910,801.55 | 84,535,179.28 | 227,626,967.66 | | | 205,747,278.98 | | | | | | | | 利息收入 | | | 165,895.26 | | 396,065.77 | | | 让售材料 | | | 14,101,599.70 | 13,832,991.63 | 15,687,772.92 | | | 13,385,413.40 | | | | | | | | 其他 | | | 290,078.19 | 68 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by factors such as US - China tariff negotiations, inflation data, and supply - demand dynamics in various industries. For most products, short - term price movements are affected by macro - level events, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand relationships [2][3][18]. - In the financial derivatives market, some products may present trading opportunities based on current price levels, market sentiment, and expected future developments. For example, in the stock index futures market, there are suggestions to sell put options or use certain hedging strategies; in the bond market, short - term observation is recommended, and curve - steepening strategies can be considered [4][6]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and then declined, with major indices showing mixed performance. Some sectors like shipping, ports, and daily chemicals rose, while aerospace, heavy machinery, and computer hardware declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also had different price movements, with all of them in a state of basis discount [2][3]. - News: Domestically, there are disputes over US tariffs on fentanyl. Overseas, the US April CPI was lower than expected, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts [3]. - Capital: On May 13, A - share trading volume was basically unchanged, with a total turnover of 1.29 trillion. The central bank conducted 1800 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: With the support of policies and relatively stable index bottoms, one can sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with an exercise price of 6400 for hedging [4]. Bond Futures - Market performance: Most bond futures contracts closed higher. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1800 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan. Deposit - type institutional repo rates showed different trends [6]. - Operation suggestion: Given the current situation of relatively reasonable bond yields and the potential negative impact on exports, short - term bond futures may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to changes in the capital and economic data, and consider curve - steepening strategies [6]. Precious Metals - Market review: Due to repeated trade conflicts between the US and other countries, continued slowdown of US inflation, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, precious metals prices rebounded slightly. Gold reached $3249.52 per ounce, up 0.44%, and silver closed at $32.894 per ounce, up 0.91% [9]. - Future outlook: Gold has long - term upward drivers, but in the short - term, the Fed's cautious attitude towards rate cuts and the impact of economic data may affect prices. Silver is affected by industrial demand and may have a volatile price range. Option double - selling strategies can be considered [9][10]. - Capital: Global gold ETF demand increased significantly in Q1, but short - term risk - aversion demand has weakened [11]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot: The quotes of leading shipping companies in May were relatively stable [12]. - Index: As of May 12, the SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 5.54%, while the US West Coast Line Index increased by 10.19%. The SCFI Composite Index increased by 0.321% [12]. - Fundamentals: As of May 14, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.7% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed different trends [13]. - Logic: The futures market was volatile, with the 08 contract being strong. Due to the US - China tariff agreement, the peak - season expectation in August is recovering. If the overflow of shipping capacity is eliminated, the price of the August contract may exceed 2000 points [13]. - Operation suggestion: Consider going long on the August contract or using positive - spread strategies for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts [13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 13, copper prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [13]. - Macro: US inflation slowed down, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts and boosting metal prices. The US - China tariff situation and the "232" investigation on copper also affect copper prices [14][15]. - Supply: Copper concentrate TC continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production increased. It is expected to continue to increase in May [16]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod processing and wire - cable enterprises decreased due to holidays, and the export production schedule of home appliances declined [17]. - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased [17]. - Logic: The short - term price may fluctuate. The strong current fundamentals limit the decline of copper prices, while the weak demand expectation restricts the upward space [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 79500 yuan/ton [18]. Zinc - Spot: On May 13, zinc prices declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was low [18]. - Supply: Zinc ore processing fees remained high, but there were risks in the mining end. Refined zinc production increased in April but was lower than expected [19]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased due to the low - base effect of the holiday, but the overall demand was still for rigid - need procurement. Terminal demand was affected by tariffs [20][21]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price may be supported by the relaxation of tariffs. In the long - term, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient, or it may maintain a high - level shock if the supply growth is lower than expected [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton [22]. Tin - Spot: On May 13, tin prices declined slightly, and the market trading was average [22]. - Supply: The import of tin ore decreased, but the import of tin ingots increased. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in July [23][24]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder increased in March, mainly due to policy support for the semiconductor industry. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The improvement of macro - sentiment may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectation, short - selling can be tried in the range of 265000 - 270000 yuan/ton [24]. - Operation suggestion: Try short - selling in the range of 265000 - 270000 yuan/ton [24]. Nickel - Spot: As of May 13, nickel prices declined [24]. - Supply: Refined nickel production was at a high level and continued to increase in April. The planned production in May was slightly lower [25]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was relatively stable, and the demand from the military and shipbuilding alloy industries was good. The demand for nickel sulfate was affected by cobalt and high - ice nickel production [25][26]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory decreased slightly, domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and bonded - area inventory remained stable [26]. - Logic: The short - term market may fluctuate. The improvement of macro - sentiment and cost support limit the decline, while the long - term supply increase restricts the upward space [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 122000 - 128000 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 13, stainless - steel prices increased slightly, and the basis increased [28]. - Raw materials: Nickel ore supply was tight, and nickel - iron prices were weak [28]. - Supply: The planned production of stainless - steel in May decreased slightly compared with April [28]. - Inventory: Social inventory remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - Logic: The short - term market may fluctuate. The support from raw materials and the improvement of macro - sentiment are offset by the supply - demand contradiction [30]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [30]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 13, lithium - carbonate prices remained stable, and lithium - hydroxide prices declined slightly [32]. - Supply: Lithium - carbonate production decreased in April but is expected to increase slightly in May. The overall supply pressure is still high [33]. - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [33]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is still high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating [34][35]. - Logic: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand contradiction is obvious, and the demand elasticity has a greater impact on short - term trends [35]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 62000 - 66000 yuan/ton [35]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices remained stable, and futures contracts were at a discount to the spot [36]. - Supply: Iron - element production increased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased [36]. - Demand: The apparent demand decreased significantly, and the impact of tariffs on demand needs attention. Steel exports remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Due to the May Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products increased [37]. - Cost and profit: Coke prices decreased, and blast - furnace steel mills had certain profits, while electric - arc - furnace steel mills had losses [38]. - Viewpoint: The reduction of tariffs may improve the demand expectation. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels of the 10 - month contract [38]. Iron Ore - Spot: Mainstream iron - ore powder prices declined slightly [39]. - Futures: The main iron - ore contract increased slightly [39]. - Demand: The daily average production of hot metal remained at a high level, and the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly [39]. - Supply: Global iron - ore shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased [39]. - Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel - mill inventory decreased [40]. - Viewpoint: The short - term valuation of iron ore may be repaired, but in the long - term, a bearish view is recommended [41]. Coke - Spot and futures: Coke prices declined, and the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts remained unchanged. Steel mills proposed to lower coke prices [42]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 1 yuan/ton [42]. - Supply: Coke production decreased slightly [42]. - Demand: Coke demand increased slightly [43]. - Inventory: Coke inventory decreased [44]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [45]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: Coking coal prices declined, and the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts remained unchanged. The market had a large hedging pressure [46]. - Supply: Domestic coal production increased, and the import volume of Mongolian coal increased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand from downstream industries increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly for rigid needs [48]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased, but the coal - mine inventory increased [48]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [48]. Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas remained stable or increased slightly [49]. - Futures: On May 13, the ferrosilicon contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased [49]. - Cost and profit: The cost of raw materials remained stable, and the profit was negative [49]. - Supply: The production of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure was relieved [49]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased slightly, and the price of magnesium increased [50]. - Viewpoint: The price may stabilize and rebound, but the trend is lack of momentum [51]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas increased slightly [52]. - Futures: On May 13, the manganese - silicon contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased [52]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the profit was negative [52]. - Manganese Ore: The global shipments of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory increased [53]. - Supply: The production of manganese silicon decreased [53]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased slightly [54]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may fluctuate and then rebound, but the trend is lack of momentum [55]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On May 13, domestic soybean - meal prices declined, and the trading volume decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed - meal was 3600 tons [56]. - Fundamentals: The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report was favorable for US soybeans, but the ideal planting weather in the US Midwest and the abundant supply from Brazil put pressure on prices [56][57]. - Outlook: The US - China trade tension eased, and US soybeans showed signs of recovery. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 yuan/ton [57]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was stable [58]. - Market Data: The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly in April, and the performance of sows and fattening pigs improved [58][59]. - Outlook: The short - term price may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [59]. Corn - Spot Price: On May 13, corn prices in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, and port prices were mixed [60]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of grains in Guangzhou ports decreased, and the corn inventory increased year - on - year [60]. - Outlook: The short - term price may fluctuate, and the long - term trend is positive. It is recommended to go long on dips [61]. Sugar - Market Analysis: The international raw - sugar price may fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton [62]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in April showed different trends, and the domestic sugar production increased [62].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 13 日 热点品种 塑料： 裕龙石化 1 线 HDPE 等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至 85%左右，目前开 工率处于中性水平。PE 下游开工率环比下降 0.20 个百分点，农膜原料库存和农 膜订单继续下降，农膜逐步进入淡季，包装膜订单继续小幅下降，整体 PE 下游 开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。上周末累库幅度较大，工作日正常去库，石 化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。美国加征关税不利于塑料下游制品出口同时聚乙 烯上游乙烷进口受限。宏观情绪提振叠加地缘风险增加，原油价格触底反弹。供 应上，新增产能山东新时代线性、惠州埃克森美孚一期线性新近投产，新增部分 检修装置，不过榆林化工等检修装置计划开车，下游还未完全恢复，以前期订单 生产为主，地膜逐步进入淡季，下游其他需求一般，目前新单跟进缓慢，下游开 工有所下降，不过中美贸易谈判提振市场情绪，现货交投好转，建议塑料空单逐 步止盈离场。 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂盘面开盘后低位震运行荡，收盘价 63727.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 13 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the caustic soda in the alumina industry chain is "Long" [1] - The investment rating for alumina in the alumina industry chain is "Bullish" [3] - The investment rating for aluminum in the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" [4] 2. Core Views - For caustic soda, influenced by the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the futures price continues to rise, with good fundamentals. There may be a short - term correction after a significant increase, and a long - term bullish view is maintained, with short - term prices expected to oscillate slightly [1] - For alumina, the industry's supply - demand situation has improved, supporting the price. It is expected that the alumina price will oscillate slightly higher in the short term, and the actual production capacity changes should be monitored [3] - For aluminum, due to the improvement of international trade and domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the aluminum price is supported. After the release of the US April CPI data, the market sentiment may change. The continuous decline of domestic aluminum ingot inventory has raised some concerns, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose during the day, fell after the night - session opening, and closed at 2533 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.85%. The trading volume was 70.64 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 2.046 million lots, an increase of 23,450 lots; the trading volume was 52.676 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.39%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic caustic soda output was 829,500 tons, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic factory inventory was 249,100 tons, a 1.66% decrease from the previous week - The weekly cost per hundred tons was 182.51 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week; the gross profit per hundred tons was 1,189.8 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 950.46 yuan/ton, a 3.48 - yuan or 0.37% increase from the previous statistical day. The domestic liquid caustic soda spot market transaction price continued to rise. The North China market had good transactions, supported by alumina demand orders and recent chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with a good supply - demand situation. Other regions had stable transactions, with low inventory pressure and active sales [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold low - position long orders [1] 3.2 Alumina 3.2.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose in the afternoon, slightly declined at night, and closed at 2832 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The trading volume was 95.49 million lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; the open interest was 3.842 million lots, a decrease of 1735 lots; the trading volume was 53.764 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Last week, the domestic alumina factory inventory was 1.585 million tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 76,000 tons, a 52% increase from the previous week - This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.6374 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly operating utilization rate was 77.2%, a 7.36% decrease - The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3332.86 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week; the industry gross profit was - 436.59 yuan/ton, a 1.19% increase from the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The average price of the spot market was 2905.71 yuan/ton, an 11.68 - yuan or 0.40% increase from the previous trading day. The spot market inventory continued to decline, and the spot transaction price was at a premium to the futures price. The overall supply has not changed recently, and the industry operating rate remained at 78.25%. The spot market transactions increased recently, with prices ranging from 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment. Overseas, the alumina market supply was tight, supporting price increases, but the domestic alumina export advantage was limited, and the import - export pattern has not changed in the short term [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [3] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2506 contract continued to rise, jumped and then corrected at night, and closed at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The trading volume was 40.43 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 5.492 million lots, a decrease of 22,204 lots; the trading volume was 39.866 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [4] 3.3.2 Important Information - The weekly bauxite output was 1.124 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous week - The weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 84.07 tons, unchanged from the previous week - This week, the industry production cost was 16,794.64 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease from the previous week. The industry average gross profit was 2876.67 yuan/ton, a 7.33% decrease from the previous week - The factory inventory during the week was 55,200 tons, a 14.95% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 65,200 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week; the LME inventory was 403,500 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 65,000 tons, a 1.65% decrease from the previous week - On May 9th, the LME aluminum price rose, ranging from 2399 - 2440 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2418 US dollars/ton, up 9.5 US dollars/ton or 0.39% [4] 3.3.3 Market Logic - The international trade situation has improved significantly, with the easing of Sino - US tariffs and a positive international macro - situation, boosting commodity prices, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices have risen. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased again. According to the CPCA, the cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars from January to April were 3.324 million units, a 35.7% increase, and new - energy vehicle consumption continues to support the rise of the aluminum price. Domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals support the aluminum price [4] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [4]