Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the convertible bond market and its relation to various industries including pharmaceuticals, electronics, photovoltaic, and semiconductor sectors [1][2][3][4][6][7][10][11][12][13][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26] Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Uncertainty**: Increased uncertainty regarding tariffs is affecting the pharmaceutical and electronics industries, necessitating companies to monitor their exposure to the U.S. market and downstream demand [1][3][4] - **Market Sentiment**: Current equity market sentiment is optimistic, but convertible bond strategies should focus on defensive measures due to the risk of downward price fluctuations as valuations are no longer at historical lows [1][4][5] - **Photovoltaic Bonds**: Photovoltaic convertible bonds are facing heightened credit risk concerns, with market confidence in these bonds decreasing. Caution is advised regarding high-yield photovoltaic convertible bonds [1][6] - **Investment Strategies**: Recommended strategies include focusing on stable performance companies with policy or technological drivers, and emphasizing low-priced defensive positions [1][7][9][20] - **Key Recommendations**: Suggested sectors for investment include self-sufficiency (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors) and domestic demand recovery (consumption, infrastructure, real estate) [1][7][9][10] - **High Dividend Stocks**: Attention should be given to high dividend or income-oriented stocks, particularly new convertible bonds and bank stocks, as funds may shift from high-volatility assets to more stable investments [1][9][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: - The electronics and textile industries have a high proportion of overseas business, making them more susceptible to tariff impacts [2][11][12] - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from domestic substitution logic, despite some exposure to tariffs [13] - Automotive parts suppliers have established overseas production to mitigate tariff impacts, maintaining competitive strength [14] - The mechanical industry has reduced its exposure to the U.S. market, thus facing less tariff impact [15][16] - **Performance Insights**: Companies with significant profit growth in Q1 2025 include a range of sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities [21][22][24][25][26] - **Market Trends**: The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show strong performance in sectors like non-ferrous metals, midstream manufacturing, and AI computing, which are worth monitoring for convertible bond investments [26]

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺/姬新悦】中大力德（002896）公司深度：精密减速器厚积薄发，卡位人形机器 人优质赛道——20250413 大势：4 月 14 日上证指数上涨 0.76%，沪深 300 上涨 0.23%，科创 50 上涨 0.25%，中证 1000 上涨 1.3%，创业板 指上涨 0.34%，恒生指数上涨 2.4%。 行业：4 月 14 日表现最好的行业分别是纺织服饰（+2.56%)、煤炭（+2.5%)、有色金属（+2.46%)、商贸零售（+2.37%)、 社会服务（+2.09%)，表现最差的行业分别是家用电器（-0.6%)、食品饮料（-0.36%)、房地产（+0.2%)、建筑材料 （+0.28%)、国防军工（+0.32%)。 资金：4 月 14 日全 A 总成交额为 13127 亿元，南下资金净流入 57.80 亿港元。 浙商早 ...

报 告 正 文 3月我国 出口同比增速 录得12.4%，较1-2月回升超10个百分点，环比增速也高于近5年中位数，指向出口较强。从 量价拆分 来看，数量拉动上行，价格拖累增加。 从 地区和品类 来看，对新兴市场出口增幅更高，对应机械和手机显著上升，家电以及劳动密集型商品受益于抢出口，增速回升显著。 出口为何回升？主因基数大 幅走低、抢出口和春节前置。一方面， 去年基数大幅走低超14个百分点，春节前置也有部分影响。 另一方面， 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，关税不确定性刺激贸易 商抢出口持续。 未来出口如何演绎？一方面， 考虑到中美关税水平已达顶峰，而美对其他地区暂停对等关税，则对美出口或可通过转口应对，而转口贸易规模相应增加，同时伴随 对应的"抢出口"。综合来看，出口将整体回落，而随着关税影响逐步显现，至年中或将探底。 另一方面， 4月初的对等关税计划或是关税阶段高点。而随着美国与 各国贸易逆差收窄，则对应税率也将调降。 此外， 近期美国关税政策反复和金融市场表现，也表明其难以承受关税带来的恶劣影响，中美贸易合作空间仍大。 低基数和抢出口共同推升出口。 按美元计价，2025年3月我国出口同比增速录得12.4%，较1 ...

裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 板块配置｜六大主线板块当前处在什么位置？ 一个季度过去了，市场最关注的几个主线板块都处在什么位置？后续还可以期待什 么？我们从股价、估值、基本面等维度自上而下梳理了科技、消费、医药、新能源、 红利、出海六大板块一季度运行动态，并给出了相关配置线索。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复 苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧；地缘政治风险。 尹欣驰 ｜中信证券 汽车及零部件行业首席分析师 S1010519040002 商用车｜卡车电动化最后一块拼图：重卡混动发展前瞻 重卡新能源化进展如火如荼，趋势明确不可逆。但现有主流的纯电动重卡受限于续航 里程限制，主要在短途和特定场景下渗透，中长距离场景的新能源化仍待开拓。复盘 乘用车新能源化进程，混动车型于纯电车型普及后两年开始加速渗透，我们认为混动 也将成为重卡新能源化的最后一块拼图。混动重卡在政策大力支持的新能源重卡范畴 内、且在中长距离运输场景中满足高效运输需求，经济性表现远超柴油重卡、且混动 技术已较为成熟，我们认为其已具备大范围商业化基础。我们预计2024/202 ...

一、 指数表现 三大股指集体收跌 ， 上证指数下跌 0. 24 %，深证成指跌 1.4 %，创业板指跌1.8 6 % 。 早盘市场情绪低迷，三大指数低开后一度反弹，午后 维持震荡 。全市场超 3 0 00只个股下 跌， 2000 只上涨。成交额 小幅 放量 ， 全天成交 1.13万亿，较昨日增加1631亿元。 二、板块及热点分析 2）机遇：由于特朗普对全球加高额关税，可能将欧盟、东盟推向我们，加大合作。 领涨板块 ： 大消费板块逆势走强 ， 美国将对所有贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对多个贸易 伙伴征收更高税率，据彭博报道，对华累计关税预计升至54%，且对我国企业重要的出海区 域，如东南亚，关税力度同样很大，但对加墨未进一步提升关税力度。关税超预期环境下，提 振内需对国内经济愈发重要，基建和国家重点产业战略（如煤化工等）投资建设有望获得政策 加码支持，而出海和制造业投资短期则面临一定的预期压制。 旅游、零售、白酒、养殖等细分 领域领涨，国芳集团、梦百合等多股涨停。贵州茅台年报业绩稳健（ 2024 年 营 收 增 长 15.66%），提振消费板块信心。 电力与地产股异动： 电力板块受电价改革政策推动 ...

2025年一季度A股市场震荡走高，以Deepseek概念为首的人工智能板块成为一季度市场主线之一，提振A股科技股大行情。截至2025年一季度 末， A股主要股指多数呈上涨态势，北证50指数表现最强，中证1000、科创50、万得全A、深证成指均录得上涨。机械、有色金属、汽车与零配 件涨幅位列行业前三，其中，机械行业以10.74%的涨幅居首。 市场篇 1.1 A股主要股指表现 2025年一季度，人工智能、机器人、新能源车等概念表现强势。Deepseek概念涨幅居首，累计上涨46.19%，IDC（算力租赁）概念上涨 26.07%；宇树机器人、减速器概念分别上涨31.04%、30.77%；汽车配件精选、小米汽车概念分别上涨21.82%、17.89%。 2025年一季度A股主要股指多数呈上涨态势。北证50指数表现最强，累计上涨22.48%，中证1000、科创50、万得全A、深证成指均录得上涨。 1.2 A股行业表现 在Wind二级行业分类的35个行业中，2025年一季度共有20个行业录得上涨。机械行业涨幅居首，累计上涨10.74%；有色金属、汽车与零配件、 软件服务行业分别上涨10.56%、10.45%、10.02%。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the premise that stocks or indices near their recent highs tend to exhibit stronger momentum and potential for future gains[10][17]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $Close_t$ represents the latest closing price - $ts\_max(Close, 250)$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value indicating the degree of decline[10]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, aligning with prior research on the predictive power of stocks near their 52-week highs[10][17]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies stocks that exhibit stable momentum characteristics, focusing on smooth price paths and consistent new highs. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, relative strength, and price stability to refine the selection process[23][25]. - **Model Construction Process**: The screening process involves the following steps: - **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least 5 "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market based on 250-day price performance - **Price Path Smoothness**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Absolute\ Price\ Change\ Over\ 120\ Days}{Sum\ of\ Daily\ Absolute\ Price\ Changes\ Over\ 120\ Days} $ Stocks with smoother price paths are prioritized - **New High Consistency**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days is calculated, and stocks with consistent proximity to new highs are selected - **Trend Continuation**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days is calculated, and the top 50 stocks are chosen based on this metric[23][25]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model emphasizes the temporal stability of momentum, leveraging smooth price paths and consistent trends to enhance predictive power[23][25]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.97% - Shenzhen Component Index: 7.72% - CSI 300: 8.01% - CSI 500: 6.55% - CSI 1000: 5.20% - CSI 2000: 6.32% - ChiNext Index: 16.55% - STAR 50 Index: 8.64%[11][12][14] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Selected Stocks**: 29 stocks were identified, including Wolong Electric, Newland, and Eilis. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 8 stocks (e.g., machinery) - Technology: 8 stocks (e.g., electronics) - Other sectors: Financials, healthcare, etc.[26][30][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, serving as a momentum indicator[10]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - $Close_t$: Latest closing price - $ts\_max(Close, 250)$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[10]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is simple yet effective in capturing momentum trends, aligning with established research on the predictive power of stocks near their recent highs[10][17]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement over time, favoring stocks with smoother trajectories[23]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Absolute\ Price\ Change\ Over\ 120\ Days}{Sum\ of\ Daily\ Absolute\ Price\ Changes\ Over\ 120\ Days} $ Stocks with higher smoothness scores are prioritized[23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights the importance of temporal stability in momentum strategies, reducing noise from volatile price movements[23]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.97% - Shenzhen Component Index: 7.72% - CSI 300: 8.01% - CSI 500: 6.55% - CSI 1000: 5.20% - CSI 2000: 6.32% - ChiNext Index: 16.55% - STAR 50 Index: 8.64%[11][12][14] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 29 stocks were identified, including Wolong Electric, Newland, and Eilis. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 8 stocks (e.g., machinery) - Technology: 8 stocks (e.g., electronics) - Other sectors: Financials, healthcare, etc.[26][30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The fund's equity investment ratio decreased to below 80% at the end of Q4, indicating a cautious approach due to rising valuations and reduced potential returns from certain stocks [2][3][4] Group 1: Fund Positioning and Strategy - The fund manager emphasizes a bottom-up approach to stock selection, leading to a reduction in positions for certain high-flying stocks as their potential returns diminished [2][4] - The fund's investment strategy is not to fully allocate capital when there are insufficient attractive investment opportunities, reflecting a cautious market outlook for Q4 2024 [2][3] - The fund maintains a minimum stock allocation of 60%-70%, but may lower return expectations if market valuations rise significantly [5][6] Group 2: Market Valuation and Return Expectations - As market valuations increase, the potential return rates for selected stocks decrease, prompting the fund to adjust its positions accordingly [4][5] - The fund manager notes that the required return rates are influenced by the prevailing market conditions and risk-free rates, rather than arbitrary targets [6][8] - The manager acknowledges that achieving higher returns (10%-15%) may be challenging due to elevated valuations and market dynamics [7][8] Group 3: Risk Assessment and Cash Flow Analysis - The risk-reward ratio is assessed based on the probability of achieving expected cash flows, with a focus on potential downside risks [9][10] - The fund manager highlights the importance of understanding market space and competitive dynamics, which can significantly impact stock valuations and future cash flows [10][14] - Continuous monitoring of company performance and market conditions is essential to reassess investment decisions and manage risks effectively [13][15] Group 4: Industry Insights and Research Approach - The fund manager's research spans various sectors, including renewable energy, consumer goods, and chemicals, leveraging insights from a collaborative research team [19][20] - The manager emphasizes the importance of understanding the business model and cash flow generation rather than getting bogged down in technical details [20][21] - The approach to investment is based on identifying companies with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, while also considering market limitations [16][18]

1 本周建议 每周思考总第621期 《 2025年首个左侧减仓信号兑现，市场趋势如期转向 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月23日累计收益7.79%。 技术面上，市场如期转势下跌。 上周观点已有明确风险提示，伴随市场顶背离及结构性风格切 换，调整最终如期而至，市场技术面调整从左侧信号转为右侧信号。 综上所述，上周为年内首次提示减仓并获市场大跌兑现，本左侧信号最终有幸成为了最高点减仓 的精准信号；基本面上，国内经济止跌企稳但回升不易，央行LPR利率继续保持不变虽然同步于美联 储本周议息会议，但低于市场原先期待；海外方面，特朗普衰退交易成为短期一致预期，但我们仍强 调本次美国经济衰退在经济周期规律中的必然性，这并非特朗普政府主观导向的结果，重申美股重点 回避不变。 主板择时观点： 市场即将在下月开始披露关税加码后的3月经济数据，在没有LPR降息对冲下，基本 面压力在市场上涨中成为重要阻力，继上周提示风险后本周重申A股适度控制仓位到中等，若无意外 重要利好消息打破现有技术面趋势则本周反弹仍是减仓时机； 中小市值板块择时观点： 同步于主 ...