Group 1 - The A-share refinancing market has seen significant activity in 2023, with total funds raised reaching 800.21 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 258.7% compared to 223.12 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The private placement market has been particularly strong, with 108 projects completed, raising a total of 756.43 billion yuan, marking a growth of 337.1% year-on-year [1] - There have been 29 convertible bond projects completed, with a total fundraising amount of 43.78 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The growth trend in the private placement market appears to be sustainable, with 424 private placement proposals disclosed this year, averaging an expected fundraising of 1.10 billion yuan each [1] - The manufacturing and high-tech industries are the main drivers of refinancing, with numerous projects in the chemical, machinery, hardware, and semiconductor sectors [1] - In the chemical industry, 11 companies completed private placements, while the machinery and hardware sectors each had 10 companies complete similar transactions [1] Group 3 - The dominance of private placements in the refinancing market is attributed to their large financing scale, high approval efficiency, and flexible use of funds, along with regulatory support for economic development [2] - The key reasons for the warming of the refinancing market this year include the resonance of policies and market conditions, with the registration system reform significantly optimizing the refinancing process and lowering financing thresholds for companies [2] - The demand for funds has surged due to economic recovery and the need for industrial upgrades, particularly in strategic areas such as new energy and semiconductors, where companies need to overcome technological bottlenecks [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the performance of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in different economic cycles and their historical trends from 2005 to 2024. It also explores the relationship between the ratio of upstream and downstream indices and the A - share market, finding that the correlation reversed around 2015 due to economic structure transformation, policy regulation, and changes in the industry competition pattern. The current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead, which helps in stock index style selection and may create medium - to - long - term arbitrage opportunities [1][18][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Different Economic States and Industry Performance - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry includes raw materials, energy, and mining. It performs best in the economic recovery stage, with the order of performance being economic recovery > economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the recovery stage, it rebounds first due to increased demand for raw materials and energy, rising commodity prices, and positive market expectations. In the expansion stage, demand grows, but high raw material prices may lead to policy regulation. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and profits fluctuate. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [3]. - **Midstream Industry**: Comprising manufacturing and related sectors, it performs strongest in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic recovery > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the expansion stage, it benefits from increased manufacturing orders and high capacity utilization. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and costs rise. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline significantly [5]. - **Downstream Industry**: Including consumer goods and services, it performs best in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession > economic recovery. In the expansion stage, consumer demand is strong, and optional consumer goods perform better. In the stagflation stage, inflation affects consumption, but essential consumer goods are relatively stable. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [6]. 3.2 Historical Review of Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream Trends - **2005 - 2007 (Upstream Explosion)**: The stock market rose overall, with the style being upstream > midstream > downstream. The economic fundamentals first expanded and then contracted. Upstream industries, represented by coal and non - ferrous metals, rose more than five times due to factors such as global commodity bull markets and China's industrialization. Midstream industries, like machinery, benefited from the real - estate market. Downstream industries were relatively weak due to lagging resident income growth [10]. - **2008 - 2009 (Full - Industry Chain Collapse and Policy Rescue)**: The stock market was weak, with the style being downstream (defensive) > midstream > upstream. Affected by the financial crisis, the upstream industry declined sharply, the midstream was supported by falling raw material prices and government investment, and the downstream rebounded first due to policy support [14]. - **2010 - 2015 (Midstream Upgrade and Downstream Consumption Rise)**: The stock market had a "V" - shaped trend, with the style being downstream > midstream > upstream. The economy was in a transformation stage. The upstream was affected by over - capacity, the midstream benefited from falling raw material prices and the development of high - end manufacturing, and the downstream reached its peak due to industry upgrades, policy support, and a loose financial environment [15]. - **2016 - 2020 (Supply - Side Reform and Consumption Differentiation)**: The stock market fluctuated and generally rose, with the style being upstream (2016 - 2017) > downstream > midstream. Supply - side reform led to a significant increase in upstream profits from 2016 - 2017. The midstream was affected by trade frictions and supply - side reform, and the downstream benefited from global liquidity and the "drinking and medicine - taking" market during the epidemic [15][16]. - **2021 - 2024 (Carbon Neutrality and Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration)**: The stock market declined, with the style being upstream (2021) > midstream (2022 - 2023) > downstream. The upstream was boosted by new energy demand in 2021. The midstream was affected by geopolitical conflicts and the epidemic but was supported by the development of photovoltaic and energy - storage industries. The downstream was affected by the epidemic and the real - estate downturn [17]. - **Summary**: Midstream performance is usually in the middle, and the upstream and downstream show obvious differentiation. Upstream indices rise first in the economic recovery, followed by the midstream, and finally the downstream. In the economic decline, the downstream has some defensive properties. Upstream is sensitive to supply - side policies, downstream to demand - side policies, and midstream is passively affected by events and policies [17]. 3.3 Industry Comparison and A - Share Market Review - The ratio of the upstream index to the downstream index is expected to be positively correlated with the A - share market. However, the correlation reversed around 2015. Before 2015, the upstream was more elastic, and the ratio was positively correlated with the A - share market. After 2015, the downstream became more elastic due to economic transformation, policy regulation, and other factors. Despite the change, the upward trend of the ratio still has indicative significance, and the current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead [18][20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market continued to rebound this week with an oscillating upward trend. The growth style performed well, driving up TMT-themed funds. However, many quantitative index-enhanced products still had mediocre excess returns. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by 10.63% week-on-week. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the chips in high-position sectors will loosen and differentiate, and the market will shift from a unilateral rise to a range-bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on the supplementary rise opportunities of low-position sectors. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, with the IM contract having a large discount and the IF contract having a large premium. In the upcoming week with a dense schedule of important macroeconomic events, the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile and relatively strong market. It is recommended to focus on technology frontier tracks such as robotics and AI computing power, and also seize the rotation and supplementary rise opportunities of sectors such as securities, pig cycles, and games. After a deep adjustment, the national debt market has shown rare allocation value, and investors are advised to moderately increase the allocation ratio [1][11][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Industry Index - The A-share market continued to rebound this week, with the growth style performing well and driving up TMT-themed funds. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 10.63%. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, and the average and median returns of neutral hedge funds this week were -0.06% and -0.08% respectively. This week, the electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, media, and computer sectors led the gains. The real estate and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors had a relatively large increase in the weekly trading volume ratio compared with last week, while the trading activity of the comprehensive finance and national defense and military industry sectors decreased significantly. The real estate sector rose 5.82% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 1.50%. The power equipment and new energy sector only rose 0.50% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 9.04%, and the sector may face short-term adjustment pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Market Style - This week, the growth style index rose 3.56%, and the weekly trading volume ratio slightly decreased to 58.73%. The consumption style index rose 0.88%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to 11.85%. The financial style index performed weakly in the past month, rising only 0.24% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased significantly to a new low in the past four weeks at 5.59%. The cyclical style index rose 1.87%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 20.69%. The stable style index rose 1.14%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased significantly to a new high in the past four weeks at 3.13%. Based on the CSI A-share index, the CSI 500 index led the gains this week, rising 3.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 19.03%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index only rose 1.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased to 27.65%. In the past three months, the market has shown highly structured characteristics, and the CSI 500 index has performed strongly. In an environment with abundant liquidity, funds clearly prefer opportunities with certainty, driving the collective supplementary rise of high-quality leading stocks in various industries [15]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds 3.2.1 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Thematic Tracks This Week - The report screened single-track and double-track funds based on six sectors: TMT, financial real estate, consumption, medicine, manufacturing, and cycle. Single-track funds are those with a position in a certain sector greater than 70% for multiple consecutive periods, and double-track funds are those with positions in two sectors both greater than 30% for multiple consecutive periods. The report listed the top five funds in each sector in terms of performance this week [20][21]. 3.2.2 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Strategy Classifications - The report improved the growth, BP, and profit factors to obtain growth, valuation, and quality factors, and divided the funds into different types such as deep undervaluation, high growth, high quality, quality growth, quality undervaluation, GARP, and balanced cost-effectiveness. It also listed the funds with relatively excellent performance in different types of funds this week [22]. 3.3 Index-Enhanced Funds 3.3.1 Distribution of Excess Returns of Index-Enhanced Funds This Week - This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.65%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.10%, the STAR 50 rose 5.48%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.07%. The representative indexes of the value style sector, such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, rose 0.89%, 1.54%, and 1.38% respectively, while the representative indexes of the growth style sector, such as the Small and Medium 100, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, rose 3.66%, 3.38%, 2.45%, and 2.16% respectively. The report also listed the average and median excess returns of different index-enhanced funds and the top three funds in terms of excess returns in each category this week [25][26][30]. 3.4 This Week's Fund High-Frequency Position Detection - After excluding funds with high positions in Hong Kong stocks and Beijing Stock Exchange stocks, funds with a scale of less than 200 million yuan, industry-themed funds, and quantitative funds, the results showed that active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the basic chemical (0.61%), machinery (0.24%), and power equipment and new energy (0.19%) industries this week, and significantly reduced their positions in the electronics (0.55%), computer (0.41%), and national defense and military industry (0.19%) industries. From a one-month perspective, the positions in the electronics (2.12%) and communication (0.97%) industries increased significantly, while the positions in the banking (1.11%) and automobile (1.04%) industries decreased significantly [3][43].

Group 1 - The consumer sector showed strong performance on September 15, with the Consumer Leader ETF (516130) experiencing a rise of 0.73% during trading [1][3] - Key stocks in various sub-sectors such as automotive, construction, machinery, and agriculture saw significant gains, with Top Group rising over 8% and several others like Desai Xiwai and Huatu Shanding increasing over 7% [1][3] - The market is shifting focus from technology stocks, particularly those related to AI, to consumer sectors that have seen relatively lower valuations [1][3] Group 2 - The Consumer Leader ETF tracks the Consumer Leader Index, which selects the most representative and high-quality companies in the consumer sector, including major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Gree Electric [5] - The index's price-to-earnings ratio was reported at 18.5 times, indicating a low valuation compared to historical data, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Upcoming consumption policies, particularly in regions like Zhejiang, are expected to stimulate domestic consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially boosting the overall consumer sector [4]

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 中小盘反弹力度领先，微盘拥挤度降至低位 股票市场概览 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度近期处于历史较低位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度均处于历史低位，大盘风格 拥挤度近期上升至历史较高位置。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度下降至历史低位；基金重仓超额累 计净值持续处于历史低位，拥挤度近期上行至历史高位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为电子、非银行金融、农林牧渔；领跌的行业为银行、综 合金融、医药。本周成交热度最高的行业为国防军工、纺织服装、纺织服 装；成交热度最低的行业为煤炭、综合金融、石油石化。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为有色金属、房地产、石油石 化，居后的行业为银行、机械、医药。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率上涨，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸 ...

今年A股再融资市场热得发烫，8000亿的规模创下历史新高。看着这些数字，我坐在黄浦江边的办公室里，手里的咖啡突然不香了。这让我想起2007年那场 狂欢，当时也是人人都在谈融资、谈扩张，结果呢？历史总是惊人地相似。 数据显示，定向增发成为主流工具，108个项目募资7564亿。化工、机械、半导体这些行业吃到了最大蛋糕。表面看是实体经济受益，但作为在这个市场摸 爬滚打多年的老手，我看到的却是另一番景象——机构们正在玩一场"击鼓传花"的游戏。 一、强者恒强与物极必反 这个市场有个铁律：「外部杠杆型行情」下必然出现"强者恒强，物极必反"的现象。现在的市场就像个醉汉，被各种消息推着走。但散户往往把股价上涨归 因于消息面刺激，这完全是"张冠李戴"。 我见过太多这样的例子：某公司发布利好，股价应声上涨。散户蜂拥而入，殊不知这不过是机构在借势拉升。等到股价涨到高位，机构开始悄悄撤退，留下 散户在高位站岗。这就是反身性理论在作祟——股价和消息互相影响，形成"马太效应"。 这里介绍一下「定级分区」，是通过系统量化「机构交易特征」后，通过比对、分类得到的四种机构数据。反映机构资金活跃程度的四个等级区域： 可以看到红色框部分（一级区和 ...

Group 1: Capital Increase, Mergers, and Acquisitions - Aerospace Electronics plans to swap assets worth 800-1,000 million to enhance its industrial chain [1] - Tianhua New Energy intends to acquire 75% equity of Suzhou Tianhua Times for 1,254 million, transferring control of lithium resource investment to the listed company [1] - Tuojing Technology aims to raise no more than 4,600 million through a private placement for high-end semiconductor equipment industrialization projects; additionally, the Big Fund Phase III will invest no more than 450 million in Tuojing Technology, becoming its second-largest shareholder [1] - Qianjin Pharmaceutical's plan to increase capital for acquiring 28.92% equity of Hunan Qianjin Xiangjiang Pharmaceutical and 68% equity of Qianjin Xieli Pharmaceutical has been approved [1] Group 2: Share Buybacks and Equity Transfers - Yishitong plans to repurchase shares worth 30-55 million, with a maximum price of 40.69 yuan per share [2] - Shanghai Yizhong intends to repurchase shares worth 30-35 million, with a maximum price of 106.08 yuan per share [3] - Chuangyuan Co. plans to repurchase 2.8-3.7 million shares, with a maximum price of 41.5 yuan per share, for future employee stock ownership plans [3] - JinkoSolar's shareholder plans to transfer 4% of shares through inquiry [4] - Huading Co.'s shareholder intends to transfer a total of 9.26% of shares through public solicitation [5] - BGI's shareholder plans to transfer 4% of shares through inquiry [6] Group 3: External Investments and Daily Operations - Nanfeng Co. plans to invest 50 million in fixed assets for a 3D printing service project [7] - Jingjiawei signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Anchaoyun Software [8] - Longjing Environmental Protection's wholly-owned subsidiary acquired 80% of GML, gaining development rights for a 140MW hydropower project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a total investment of approximately 399 million [8] - Boshi Co. signed a contract with Guoneng Yulin for a chemical packaging operation project, with a contract amount of approximately 235 million [8] - Zhongchao Holdings signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hefei Intelligent Robot Research Institute [9] - Dongcai Technology's high-speed electronic resin has been supplied to major server systems including Nvidia [10] - Chiplink Integration plans to transfer some technology and equipment for no less than 458 million [10] - Huibo Yuntong's related party plans to acquire 22.0875% of Baode Computing [10] - Shanghai Mechanical and Electrical plans to transfer 67% equity of its subsidiary Simik Welding Materials [10] - Wan'an Technology intends to acquire 2.72% equity of Tongchuan Technology through capital increase [10] - Guodun Quantum plans to sign two sales contracts with China Telecom Quantum Group [10] - Sinopec Oilfield Services' wholly-owned subsidiary is expected to win a construction project worth 858 million from the National Pipeline Group [11]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been launched, focusing on maintaining reasonable growth rates and improving efficiency and structure in the context of changing external environments and internal economic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Launching the Growth Stabilization Plans - The previous growth stabilization plan was initiated when the industrial added value growth rate was only 3.8%, amidst pressures from domestic demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations [2]. - Currently, the industrial economy is showing a positive trend, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in industrial added value in the first half of the year, but challenges remain due to external complexities and structural contradictions [2][4]. - The new plans aim to enhance the quality of supply, optimize the development environment, and achieve both qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in key industries [2][6]. Group 2: Key Industries Identified - The ten key industries targeted in the growth stabilization plans include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, power equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing [3][4]. - These industries collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial output above designated size, indicating their critical role in stabilizing the industrial and national economy [4]. Group 3: Policy Focus Areas - The plans emphasize stimulating innovation by addressing both supply and demand sides, including enhancing technological innovation, quality standards, and promoting digital, intelligent, and green transformations [6][8]. - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a key driver for innovation across the entire industrial chain, with specific initiatives in electronic information manufacturing and power equipment sectors [7][8]. - The plans also propose measures to upgrade traditional consumption, expand new consumption scenarios, and promote new business models [8][9]. Group 4: Opportunities for Enterprises - The plans provide tailored strategies for each segment of the industrial chain, signaling a shift from price competition to competition based on technology, quality, and brand [10]. - Specific innovation targets are outlined, such as developing high-performance lightweight XR devices and supporting key product innovation projects in new energy and smart grid equipment [10]. - Support measures for enterprises include tax incentives, platform construction for testing, and encouragement for small and medium enterprises to focus on differentiated development [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been launched, focusing on maintaining reasonable growth rates and improving efficiency and structure in the context of changing external environments and internal economic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Launching the Growth Stabilization Plans - In 2023, the industrial added value growth rate was only 3.8%, necessitating measures to stabilize the industrial base amid domestic demand contraction and supply shocks [2]. - Currently, the industrial economy is showing a positive trend, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in industrial added value in the first half of the year, but challenges remain due to external uncertainties and structural contradictions [2]. - The plans aim to enhance the quality of supply, optimize the development environment, and promote both qualitative and quantitative improvements in the industry [2]. Group 2: Key Industries Identified - The ten key industries targeted for growth stabilization include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, electrical equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing, which collectively account for about 70% of the industrial economy [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Focus Areas - The plans emphasize innovation and transformation on both the supply and demand sides, including strengthening technological innovation, quality standards, and promoting digital and green transformations [6]. - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a crucial element in the plans, driving innovation across the entire industry chain from chips to smart terminals [7][8]. Group 4: Opportunities for Enterprises - The plans signal a shift from price competition to competition based on technology, quality, and brand, encouraging enterprises to focus on high-value-added products [10]. - Specific measures include tax incentives, support for key product innovation projects, and encouragement for small and specialized enterprises to develop differentiated products [10]. - The plans also emphasize the role of major projects in driving investment and consumption, which is vital for stabilizing and improving the quality of key industries [9]. Group 5: Future Potential - As the growth stabilization plans are implemented, the development potential of these key industries is expected to be continuously released [11].

Core Viewpoint - A new round of key industry growth stabilization plans has been launched, focusing on ten major industries to support economic stability and growth amid changing external environments and internal economic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Key Industries - The ten key industries targeted for growth stabilization include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, power equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing [3][4]. - These industries collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial output above a designated scale, indicating their critical role in stabilizing the industrial and national economy [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - In 2023, the industrial added value growth rate was only 3.8%, necessitating measures to stabilize the industrial base and maintain reasonable growth rates to support the overall economy [2]. - By the first half of the year, the industrial added value had increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend despite ongoing external uncertainties and structural challenges [2]. Group 3: Policy Focus - The stabilization plans emphasize enhancing supply capabilities, optimizing industry development environments, and promoting qualitative improvements and reasonable growth in key industries [2][6]. - Specific measures include strengthening technological innovation, improving quality standards, and facilitating digital, intelligent, and green transformations within industries [6]. Group 4: Role of New Technologies - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a crucial element in the stabilization plans, driving innovation across the entire industrial chain from chips to smart terminals [7]. - The plans also focus on promoting major engineering projects to stimulate investment and consumption, which are vital for improving quality within key industries [7]. Group 5: Opportunities for Enterprises - The plans provide tailored strategies for each segment of the industry chain, encouraging a shift from price competition to competition based on technology, quality, and brand [9]. - Support measures for enterprises include tax incentives, platform construction for testing innovations, and encouragement for small and medium enterprises to focus on niche markets [9]. Group 6: Future Potential - As the growth stabilization plans are implemented, the development potential of these key industries is expected to be continuously released, contributing to overall economic stability [10].