1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the overnight night - session market trends of domestic and international futures, important macro - economic news, and the situation of various financial markets. It also gives the schedule of significant events for the day. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Session Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，沥青、菜油、棕榈油涨近1%，对二甲苯（PX）、PTA跌超1%，瓶片、乙二醇、短纤、菜粕跌近1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.41%报3232.20美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.44%报32.50美元/盎司 [3] - International oil prices走强，美油主力合约收涨0.29%，报62.15美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨0.17%，报65.52美元/桶 [4] - London basic metals收盘涨跌不一，LME期锡涨0.98%报32960.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.81%报9516.00美元/吨 [5] - International agricultural product futures多数上涨，美大豆涨0.12%，美玉米涨0.79%，美豆油涨1.12%，美豆粕跌0.24%，美小麦涨0.86% [6] Important News Macro - economic News - In April 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in each tier of cities were flat or slightly decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In first - tier cities, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [9] - The real estate market is moving towards stabilizing, but it is still in the adjustment and transformation process, and there is still pressure to release rigid and improved demand [9] - In April, affected by external shocks, macro - policies worked together, and the main economic indicators grew steadily and rapidly, but the foundation for the continuous recovery of the national economy needs to be further consolidated [9] - Fed's Bostic still worries about tariff - induced inflation but expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut this year [12] - Starting from May 20, many large state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks will cut the RMB deposit listing rates [12] - The US Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting this week [13] - Russia is ready to cooperate on the peace negotiation memorandum with Ukraine, and there are intentions for face - to - face meetings between Russian and US leaders [13] - Iran's deputy foreign minister warns that nuclear negotiations will fail if the US insists on Iran stopping uranium enrichment [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Goldman Sachs is cautious about oil price prospects, maintaining the forecast of Brent/US crude oil prices at $60/$56 for the rest of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026 [16] - As of May 19, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China decreased by 2.65 tons, and the benzene - ethylene port sample inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 0.46 tons, a decrease of 8.11% [16] - On May 19, the domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton respectively [19] - The EU will propose to the G7 finance ministers to lower the price cap of Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel [20] Metal Futures - On May 19, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased compared with May 12 and May 15, with different changes in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [22] - As of May 19, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased compared with May 12 and May 15 [23] - From May 12 - 18, the shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month [23] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of copper ore and copper concentrate decreased compared with May last year, while that of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate increased significantly [23] Black - series Futures - From May 12 - 18, the global iron ore shipment increased by 3.188 million tons month - on - month, with the shipment from Australia and Brazil increasing by 2.836 million tons [27] - From May 12 - 18, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 2.896 million tons month - on - month [27] - In April 2025, the coal export from Gladstone Port in Australia decreased by 19.38% month - on - month and 1.76% year - on - year [28] - From January to April, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [28] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of iron ore decreased compared with May last year, but the daily shipment volume increased by 2.59% [28] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the level of a 9.5% export tariff [30] - As of May 15, the soybean harvest rate in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, reached 98%, and the expected output in the 2024/25 season decreased by 27.4% compared with the previous season [32] - In April, China's palm oil import increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the import of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 18.4% year - on - year [32] - As of May 16, the domestic soybean crushing volume of major oil mills increased, and it is expected to continue to rise to 2.25 million tons this week [33] - As of May 15, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased compared with the previous week [34] - From May 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output all increased [35] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of soybeans decreased compared with May last year, but the daily shipment volume increased by 11.34% [35] - As of May 17, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 98.9% [37] - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean output is estimated at 169.7 million tons, with a slight downward adjustment of the export volume estimate [37] - As of May 18, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than expected, and the corn planting rate was 78%, lower than expected [37] Financial Markets Commodities - International precious metal futures rose due to the increase in global market risk - aversion sentiment after Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating [39] - International oil prices strengthened due to the enhanced expectation of global economic recovery and the gradual increase in demand [39] - London basic metals had a mixed performance, with the market trend being differentiated under multiple factors [39] - Zhongcai Futures' chairman has become China's largest copper bull, accumulating nearly $1 billion in bets [41] Bonds - In the domestic bond market, treasury bond futures rose, and most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [42] - The US Treasury will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations on May 20 [42] - In April, overseas institutional investors net - bought RMB 301.5 billion of domestic bonds, and as of the end of April, overseas institutions held RMB 4.44 trillion of inter - bank market bonds [42] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [42] - The main European bond markets stabilized, with the 10 - year UK Treasury yield rising slightly, and those of Germany, France, Italy, and Portugal remaining basically flat [43] Foreign Exchange - In April, the domestic foreign exchange supply and demand were basically balanced, and cross - border funds showed a net inflow, with foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continuing to improve [44] - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the central parity rate was raised [47] - Hedge funds and long - term investors are re - establishing positions betting on the appreciation of the yen [47] - The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [47] Upcoming Events - There are a series of important events on May 20, including central bank meetings, press conferences, and corporate events such as the listing of CATL's H - shares and the release of corporate financial reports [50]

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Copper and Aluminum Market - International copper futures rose by 0.65%, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.54% [1] - Shanghai aluminum experienced a decline of 0.62% [1] - Shanghai zinc fell by 0.27%, and Shanghai lead decreased by 0.71% [1] - Shanghai nickel dropped by 0.31%, whereas Shanghai tin saw a slight increase of 0.15% [1] Group 2: Aluminum Oxide and Stainless Steel Market - Aluminum oxide futures rose by 1.23% [2] - Stainless steel futures declined by 1.16% [2]

1. Market Index Performance 1.1 Global Stock Indices - The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 331.99 points (0.784%) to 42,654.74 [2]. - The Nasdaq Index increased by 98.78 points (0.517%) to 19,211.10 [2]. - The S&P 500 climbed 41.45 points (0.701%) to 5,958.38 [2]. - The Hang Seng Index fell 108.11 points (-0.461%) to 23,345.05 [2]. 1.2 Other Macro - indicators - SHIBOR overnight rose 0.25 to 1.65, a 17.806% increase [2]. - The US Dollar Index dropped 0.244 points (-0.241%) to 100.74 [2]. - The US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.20 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (International) - COMEX Gold decreased by $38.60 (-1.190%) to $3,205.30 [2]. - COMEX Silver fell $0.36 (-1.098%) to $32.43 [2]. - LME Copper declined $137 (-1.431%) to $9,440.00 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (Domestic) - Gold futures dropped 2.80 (-0.372%) to 749.00 [2]. - Silver futures fell 8.0 (-0.099%) to 8093.00 [2]. - Copper futures decreased 470.0 (-0.601%) to 77670.00 [2]. 1.4 Energy and Chemical Futures (Domestic) - Crude oil futures rose 6.30 (1.381%) to 462.50 [4]. - Fuel oil futures increased 19.0 (0.636%) to 3008.00 [4]. - Natural rubber futures dropped 55.0 (-0.369%) to 14850.00 [4]. 1.5 Agricultural Futures (Domestic) - Yellow soybean No.1 futures rose 17.0 (0.408%) to 4185.00 [4]. - White sugar futures fell 14.0 (-0.239%) to 5841.00 [4]. - Cotton No.1 futures dropped 10.0 (-0.075%) to 13380.00 [4]. 2. Macro - economic News 2.1 Domestic News - Central bank officials support Beijing's financial development, including promoting RMB internationalization and strengthening the Beijing Stock Exchange [7]. - China's domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19 [7]. - China - US freight volume has recovered after mutual tariff cuts, and US business cooperation is increasing [7]. - China aims to grow its data industry to 7.5 trillion yuan by 2030 and build a data infrastructure system by 2029 [8]. - China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting May 19 [8]. - China's cold - chain logistics showed growth in Q1 2025, with a 4.0% increase in total value and a 3.9% increase in revenue [8]. 2.2 International News - US President Trump urges the Fed to cut interest rates and criticizes Fed Chair Powell [9]. - US Treasury Secretary responds to Moody's downgrade of US credit rating and plans to attend a G7 meeting [9]. 3. Morning Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Suggest trading in the 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton range, with a key support at 5830 yuan/ton [12]. - Corn: Maintain a short - selling strategy, watch for a break below 2300 yuan/ton [12]. - Eggs: Consider short - selling, with a focus on the price range and potential support [12]. - Hogs: Hold short positions, and use pre - holiday rebounds for shorting [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: Expect stable prices in East China with local fluctuations [14]. - Urea: The market may continue high - level oscillations, with opportunities for positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices rebounded but faced resistance at previous gaps [14]. - Alumina: Prices are expected to be strong, with a focus on the 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton resistance [14]. 3.4 Others - Steel products: Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels, with specific price ranges for different products [16]. - Ferroalloys: Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Continue weak oscillations in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Hold short positions, watch for potential technical rebounds [16]. 3.5 Options and Finance - Stock indices: The market is likely to be volatile, with specific trading strategies for futures and options [17][18]. 4. Research Analysts 4.1 Agricultural Products - Li Na (F3060165, Z0016368) and Liu Sikui (F3033884, Z0011291) [22]. 4.2 Industrial Products - Liu Peiyang (F0290318, Z0011155), Peng Bohan (F3076814, Z0016415), and Lin Na (F03099603, Z0020978) [22]. 4.3 Options and Finance - Ding Wen (F3066473, Z0014838) and Li Weihong (F0231193, Z0017182) [22].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into imported metallurgical silicon from several countries, responding to requests from U.S. companies Ferroglobe USA, Inc. and Mississippi Silicon LLC [1] Group 1: Investigations Initiated - The anti-dumping investigation targets imports of metallurgical silicon from Angola, Australia, Laos, and Norway [1] - The countervailing investigation focuses on imports of metallurgical silicon from Australia, Laos, Norway, and Thailand [1]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/14 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约收涨 2.71%，报 63.63 美元/桶；布伦 特原油主力合约涨 2.43%，报 66.54 美元/桶。 2. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍上涨，能源化工品表现强劲，苯乙烯涨 3.78%，乙二醇涨 3.31%，PTA 涨 3.25%，丁二烯橡胶涨 2.97%，短纤涨 2.7%，低 硫燃料油涨 2.37%，原油涨 1.7%。黑色系全线上涨，铁矿石涨近 1%。农产品涨 跌不一。基本金属全线上涨，氧化铝涨 1.69%，沪锌涨 1.57%，沪铜涨 0.99%。 沪金涨 0.36%，沪银涨 0.40%。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.82%报 3254.50 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.43%报 33.09 美元/盎司。 4. 伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 1.93%报 2720.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铅涨 1.40%报 1993.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 1.29%报 962 ...

金十期货5月13日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： 1. 铜库存189650吨，减少1100吨。 2. 铝库存399300吨，减少2225吨。 3. 镍库存198516吨，增加762吨。 4. 锌库存167950吨，减少1900吨。 5. 铅库存253175吨，增加1375吨。 6. 锡库存2790吨，持平。 LME有色金属库存日报 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨，能源化工品普遍上涨，苯乙烯涨 3.05%，丁二烯橡胶涨 2.69%，纸浆涨 2.38%，燃油涨 2.36%，PTA 涨 2.11%，20 号胶涨 1.91%。黑色系涨跌不一，铁矿石涨 1.77%，螺纹钢涨 1.28%，热卷涨 1.1%。农产品多数上涨，棉花涨 1.26%，豆二涨 1.02%，棉纱涨近 1%。基本金属 涨跌不一，沪锡涨 1.33%，沪铝涨 0.91%，沪镍跌 1.26%。沪金跌 2.52%，沪银 跌 0.75%。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.54%，报 61.96 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.63%，报 64.95 美元/桶。分析师指出，OPEC+增产节奏加快及地 缘政治风险缓和共同推动油价上行，但需关注美国库存数据变化对供需平衡的 影响。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.06%报 3241.80 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.36%报 32.80 美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - Factors such as asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - Gold will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - Many commodities in different sectors are expected to oscillate due to various factors such as trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances. Some commodities are expected to decline or rise based on specific supply and demand situations [1]. Summary by Industry Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: It is expected to oscillate. After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - **Gold**: Oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Oscillating. Sino - US talks will start, and the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but the copper price has clearly rebounded, so the price may oscillate. Focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of Shanghai copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. Global trade frictions are still uncertain, and with the arrival of the domestic wet season, the domestic inventory reduction speed may slow down, so the aluminum price will oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved, and the short - term price may rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. Under the favorable domestic policies, the market sentiment has improved, but the result of Sino - US tariff negotiations is unknown, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The low inventory in the near - term supports the zinc price, but the fundamental upside pressure is large. Focus on short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the premium of nickel ore is high, and the nickel price will oscillate. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowinning nickel. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and operate within the range. Be vigilant about changes in domestic and foreign macro and resource - country policies [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, the price of nickel iron has slightly corrected, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand expectation is weak under the background of trade frictions. In the short - term, the stainless - steel futures will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see and operate within the range. The industrial sector should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered the low - valuation range, and the demand has not improved and the inventory pressure has not been relieved [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, so the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish. Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream raw - material inventory is at a high level. At the low price, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain. Plates may bear the brunt, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Tariff policies affect the market sentiment, and iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillating. The inventory is high, but the cost has support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. The cost has loosened, but the production area has reduced production, and the social inventory is neutral [1]. - **Glass**: Oscillating. The demand is released in a pulsed manner. Pay attention to the demand performance. The near - term positions are gradually decreasing, and the long - short game is weakening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating. Alkali plants are resuming production, and the demand has increased, but the medium - term supply is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillating. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus, and they are short - allocated in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunity of positive arbitrage in the futures - cash market and selling hedging after the price rebounds to a premium [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. The rebound of crude oil prices may make it difficult for oils and fats to decline smoothly. The fundamentals are bearish. Wait for the opportunity to short after the price rebounds. It is recommended to do long in the YP spread [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. There is currently a lack of weather themes for US soybeans. The large volume of soybean arrivals and the intention of Sino - US talks may be bearish risks, and the price is in a unilateral oscillation [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting period. There may be an anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed recently, which is expected to bring large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider doing long in the volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. If crude oil continues to search for the bottom, the cotton - spinning demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on the cotton price. Recently, the prices of overseas agricultural products have fallen from high levels, the cotton - grain price ratio has repaired upwards, and the substitution effect of US cotton planting has weakened marginally, which is bearish for the long - term US cotton price [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Overseas, the production reduction in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production increase in India have raised concerns about international supply shortages, and the price of raw sugar has risen strongly recently. Domestically, the sugar - making season is approaching the end, the production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has reached a historical high, which suppresses the upside space of the domestic market [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. In the short - term, affected by the impact of new wheat listing and the expectation of policy - based grain release, the corn futures price faces certain pressure. The expected trend is oscillating, and the bullish expectation remains unchanged under the tightening medium - term supply and demand. It is recommended to wait for the callback to do long [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Bearish. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas recently is conducive to sowing, the Brazilian discount is generally oscillating weakly, there is no obvious bullish driver in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Wait for the further release of spot pressure [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The decline in the overseas offer of paper pulp weakens the cost support, and the domestic demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has slightly decreased recently. It is recommended to hold the position and wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillating. The volume of log arrivals remains high, the inventory is generally at a high level, the price of terminal products has fallen, and there is no short - term bullish factor. The current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Pigs**: Oscillating. With the continuous restoration of pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase, the futures price has an obvious expectation, the discount to the spot is large, and there is no bright spot in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillating. The cost is dragging down, the inventory is still low but continuously accumulating, the demand is slowly recovering, and the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan is worth looking forward to this year [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. The expectation of production release is increasing, the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and affected by the purchase - storage policy [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Bearish. The cost is suppressing, the fundamentals are loose, the spread between high - and low - end butadiene rubber continues to widen, and it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **PTA**: The intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants has significantly repaired the internal - external spread of PX. Due to the profit repair of PTA, the procurement demand for PX has significantly strengthened, the floating price has started to strengthen, and domestic PTA and reforming plants plan to overhaul more plants in May. The high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. Ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, large - scale plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based plants have started to be overhauled [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Bullish. The slightly tight situation of PTA has strengthened the cost support for short - fiber, and in the case of a high basis, short - fiber has shown strong performance [1]. - **Styrene**: The weak demand for pure benzene has caused the price to continue to decline. The decline in the profit of reforming plants has clearly affected the plant load. After the sharp decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand for pure benzene has continued to weaken [1]. - **Urea**: Bullish. The market expectation is favorable, the sentiment is strong, and the urea market is likely to rise firmly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The basis is high, and the replenishment is active. In the short - term, the methanol price will oscillate within the range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weakly oscillating [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. The macro - risk is large, crude oil is oscillating weakly, the orders are insufficient, the market sentiment is weak, and PE will oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Some previously overhauled plants have resumed operation, the demand is stable, the trade war has intensified, the market sentiment is weak, and PP will oscillate [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. The fundamentals are weak, the macro - risk has intensified, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward movement [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The demand during the May Day holiday was average, the driving force for the increase in spot prices was insufficient, and the futures price oscillated weakly [1]. Other Sector - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market has strong expectations but weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling at the price - support point due to the price reduction. As the futures price begins to show a safety margin, you can try to go long in the peak - season contracts with a light position. Continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread for arbitrage [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,100 - 78,700 in the short - term and 66,000 - 90,000 in the medium - term, with a recommended shock operation strategy. The supply is tightening, and demand pre - placement supports prices, but there are risks of short - squeeze and weakening demand in the off - season [1][2]. - For protein meal, considering the easing of the trade war, soybean meal is regarded as bearish in the short - term, with a far - strong and near - weak pattern in the medium - term. Recommended strategies include buying at - the - money straddle options of soybean meal 2509 and considering exiting the short 2507 - long 2601 position [3][5]. - Petroleum asphalt is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and under pressure in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to hold the long asphalt - short high - sulfur fuel oil position [6][8]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is a 77,100 - 78,700 range fluctuation; medium - term view is a 66,000 - 90,000 range fluctuation. Recommended strategy is shock operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The Fed will announce the interest rate decision on May 8 at 2:00 am [1]. - **Supply**: Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in April dropped to over - one - year lows. Aurubis will start an $800 million US scrap copper smelter in 2025. Altonorte smelter may extend maintenance, affecting South American electrolytic copper production [1]. - **Demand**: In April 2025, the operating rate of copper wire enterprises was 81.31%, up 7.71 percentage points month - on - month and 7.89 percentage points year - on - year. After the increase in copper prices, trading activity in some regions declined [2]. - **Inventory**: On May 7, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 193,975 tons, and SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,381 tons to 21,541 tons [2]. - **Outlook**: Demand pre - placement supports copper prices, but there are risks of short - squeeze and weakening demand in the off - season [2]. Protein Meal - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is bearish on soybean meal due to trade war easing; medium - term view is far - strong and near - weak for soybean meal. Recommended strategies are buying at - the - money straddle options of soybean meal 2509 and considering exiting the short 2507 - long 2601 position [3][5]. - **Core Logic**: - **Trade War**: There are signs of trade war easing, with the US Treasury Secretary suggesting partial cancellation of tariffs on China. Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks are rumored to be held in Switzerland from May 9 - 12 [3]. - **International Soybeans**: As of April 30, 88% of soybeans in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul have been harvested. StoneX slightly raised Brazil's soybean production to 168 million tons. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, higher than the five - year average of 23%. China's second - quarter Brazilian soybean arrivals are expected to be between 20 and 30 million tons [4]. - **Rapeseed**: After the holiday, the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was flat compared to before the holiday. Canada's 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.64 million acres, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. Canada's 25/26 ending inventory forecast was raised from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [4]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, there is a large supply of new Brazilian soybeans and short - term trade war easing. It is recommended to trade short - term volatility [5]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly; medium - term view is under pressure. Recommended strategy is to hold the long asphalt - short high - sulfur fuel oil position [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: Local refineries' asphalt production losses decreased this week, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate rose slightly to 28.8% as of May 6. The weekly asphalt production was 488,000 tons as of May 6, an increase of 7,000 tons. Production is expected to continue to increase [7]. - **Demand**: Rain in the south affects road construction, but demand in other regions is expected to improve. Overall, the May demand outlook is positive. Both factory and social inventories have declined [7]. - **Cost**: Kazakhstan's planned production cuts and limited growth in the US Permian Basin support oil prices, but Trump's low - oil - price policy limits the upside. The discount of diluted asphalt has risen to $5.3 per barrel [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, improved demand and cost support lead to an oscillating - strong trend. In the long - term, increased supply and uncertain demand may put pressure on prices if oil prices decline [8].