Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, closing at 3996.94 points, a rise of 1.18%, marking a nearly ten-year high [1][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 46.63 points, or 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 200.22 points, or 1.51% [2]. - Other indices such as the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market also saw gains, with the ChiNext Index up by 62.89 points, or 1.98% [2]. Sector Performance - A broad-based rally was observed across major sectors, including traditional cyclical sectors like steel, electricity, coal, and non-ferrous metals, which all saw significant gains [4]. - Financial sectors, including brokerage and insurance, also showed strong upward movement [4]. - In the technology sector, cutting-edge themes such as lithography machines, storage chips, and CPO concepts performed notably well [4]. Catalysts for Market Rally - The rally was primarily driven by easing tensions between the U.S. and China, with significant progress reported in trade negotiations [4][6]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Behnke indicated that the U.S. would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China, while China suspended its planned expansion of rare earth export controls [6][9]. - The market reacted positively to these developments, with increased capital inflow boosting market sentiment and valuations [10]. Economic Indicators - China's industrial profits for the first nine months of the year grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 21.6% in September alone, indicating strong internal resilience and growth potential [14][17]. - The Chinese economy's robust performance is seen as a strong foundation for navigating global uncertainties, providing a significant boost to market confidence [18]. Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - China holds approximately 35% of the world's rare earth reserves, making it a critical player in the global supply chain for high-tech and defense industries [19]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in establishing an independent rare earth supply chain, which could take years and substantial investment [21]. External Factors Influencing Market - Anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut, is expected to weaken the dollar and provide more room for China's monetary policy [24]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by a European agency reflects growing concerns over U.S. fiscal and political risks, further influencing market dynamics [24]. Conclusion - The recent surge in the A-share market is attributed to both internal strengths and external catalysts, highlighting the interplay between domestic economic performance and international trade relations [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Views - The profitability of steel futures has dropped to its lowest level since 2015, indicating significant pressure on the steel industry [2][44] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to regulatory support for the industry [4] Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in September was -1.2 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for September 2025 was 47.58, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.61% [19] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The price of asphalt has reached a new low since February 2022, indicating challenges in the infrastructure sector [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points from the previous week [44] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, suggesting strong demand in the tire sector [73] - The prices of major commodities showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.51% and copper up 1.94% [2] Sub-sectors - The main contract profit for steel futures has fallen to its lowest level since 2015, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in the sector [2][44] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 4.26% [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 was 47.80%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 992.74 points, up 2.02% from the previous week [4] Valuation Levels - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, indicating potential undervaluation [4] - The report notes that the cyclical sector, particularly oil and petrochemicals, has shown the best performance with a 4.33% increase [4]

Market Performance - The major stock indices in the two markets experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and approaching 4000 points, marking a new high in over 10 years [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.18% to 3996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.51% to 13489.4 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.98% to 3234.45 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23.568 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, electricity, brokerage, coal, agriculture, chemicals, and insurance also rising [1] - Active concepts included storage chips, photolithography machines, and CPO [1] Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, market sentiment has cooled somewhat since October, with a slowdown in the inflow of incremental funds, but overall, the market has not lost momentum [1] - Recent signals of easing in China-US relations have improved risk appetite in overseas markets [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations have been released, which are expected to enhance market risk appetite in the short term due to increased policy clarity [1] - In the medium to long term, the "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a blueprint for a modern industrial system, providing a clear growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to be boosted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino-US trade negotiations, with short - term strength and small - cap stocks relatively stronger [3][4]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.15, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 7.10 [2][3]. - The shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward shift, and a long - biased strategy can be considered [6][7][10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase but will continue to rise in the medium term. Attention should be paid to mid - term buying opportunities [12][15]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be in high - level oscillation, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in high - level oscillation [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a state of oscillation, waiting for clear signals [22]. - Tin is expected to be in high - level oscillation [23]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to be in a range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton with a slightly upward - biased oscillation [23][24][25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and investors should be cautious [25][26][27]. - Lead is expected to be in high - level oscillation, and option double - selling can be considered to earn premiums [27][28]. - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and iron ore prices are under pressure [30][31]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but face the risk of a pull - back, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [35][36]. - LPG prices are expected to be strong in the short term [37][38]. - PTA - PX prices are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [39][40][41]. - MEG - bottle chips are expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [42][43]. - Urea prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [43][44]. - PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [45][46]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [47][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [49][50]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited, and low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity; glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery; caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Key events include Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the speech of Takaichi Sanae, and the slowdown of the US core CPI growth rate in September [1][2]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policies are being implemented to support the economy, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the "14th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the RMB exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1230 on the previous trading day, down 9 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0928, down 10 basis points [2]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated upward in the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 3303.00 billion yuan [3]. - Affected by the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino - US trade negotiations, the stock index is expected to be strong in the short term, and small - cap stocks are relatively stronger [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market fluctuated and declined last week, and the capital market was loose [5]. - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" goals, the A - share market rose, and the bond market was under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - level layout opportunities [5]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European Line) futures rebounded on October 24, with the main contract EC2512 rising 3.14% [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include Sino - US economic and trade consultations, shipping companies' price - support strategies, and port operation disruptions. Negative factors include the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and macro risks [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Precious metals were adjusted last week, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Silver's short - term squeeze has ended, and the short - term safe - haven sentiment has weakened [12]. - The inventory of gold and silver ETFs decreased last week, and the COMEX and SHFE inventories also changed [13]. Copper - The domestic copper price rose last week, with the Shanghai copper weighted index trading volume and open interest increasing. The external copper price was weaker than the domestic price [16]. - The production and sales of Freeport - McMoRan decreased in the third quarter, and China's anode copper imports were at a low level in 2025. The operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises decreased, and consumption was weak [17]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The Shanghai aluminum price was strong last week, and the alumina price was weak. The cast aluminum alloy price followed the Shanghai aluminum price [20]. - The macro policy affects the Shanghai aluminum price, and the overseas supply of aluminum has been disturbed. Alumina is in a situation of over - supply, and the cost support is not stable [20]. Zinc - The zinc price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The external zinc price was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc price was driven up [21]. - The supply of domestic smelting is stable, and the overseas supply has decreased. The price difference has widened, and the LME zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices rose slightly last trading day [22]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel have not changed significantly. The new regulations on nickel ore quotas in Indonesia are stricter, and the demand for new energy is strong. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the stainless steel price is expected to be in wide - range oscillation [22]. Tin - The Shanghai tin price was in high - level oscillation last trading day, and the fundamentals have not changed. The supply of tin is weaker than the demand, and the short - term support is around 276,000 yuan [23]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rose last week, with the trading volume and open interest increasing [23]. - The spot market of the lithium - battery industry was active last week. The supply of lithium salt is expected to increase in October, and the demand for downstream lithium - battery materials is expected to increase by the end of the year [24][25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly last week, while the polysilicon futures price fell [25][26]. - The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate is declining. The polysilicon industry is in a situation of production reduction and inventory accumulation [26][27]. Lead - The Shanghai lead price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The environmental protection policy in Hebei has affected the transportation of lead, and the supply of lead is in a tight - balance situation [27][28]. Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly last week. The profit of steel mills decreased, and the production of crude steel is expected to decline slightly. The price of iron ore is under pressure due to over - supply [30][31]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. Crude Oil - The Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose last week [35]. - The crude oil market is boosted by geopolitical and macro factors, but there is a risk of over - shooting. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [36]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose last week. The supply of LPG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The port inventory decreased [37]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong in the short term, driven by geopolitical and macro factors [38]. PTA - PX - The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester demand is stable, and the terminal demand has improved marginally [39][40]. - The PTA - PX price is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [41]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports increased. The supply of MEG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired [42][43]. - The MEG price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [43]. Urea - The urea futures price rose last week, and the spot price was firm. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [43][44]. - The urea price is expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [44]. PP - The PP futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PP decreased slightly, and the demand had some elasticity. The inventory decreased [45][46]. - The PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [46]. PE - The PE futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PE is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased slightly [47][48]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene price is expected to be weak due to over - supply and weak demand. The benzene - ethylene supply is expected to increase, and the de - stocking pressure is large [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [50]. Fuel Oil - The cracking upside of high - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. Asphalt - The asphalt price increased last week. The supply of asphalt decreased, and the demand was flat. The inventory structure improved [52]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. Glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery. Caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The prices of pulp and offset paper futures rose last week. The spot price of pulp was stable [55]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, driven by multiple favorable factors including U.S.-China trade negotiations and supportive monetary policy [1][2]. Market Analysis - The A-share market is buoyed by several positive developments: - U.S.-China trade talks have reached a basic consensus, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary stating that there are no plans to impose a 100% tariff on China [2]. - The People's Bank of China has injected 900 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations to support market liquidity [2]. - There is an increasing expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is enhancing market sentiment [2]. Sector Performance - **Steel and Non-ferrous Metals**: These sectors saw significant gains, with stocks like Xiamen Tungsten hitting the daily limit [2]. - **Computing Power Hardware**: Stocks in this category, including Zhongji Xuchuang, reached historical highs, with Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price surpassing 500 yuan for the first time [2][4]. - **Coal Sector**: The coal sector is recovering, with Zhengzhou Coal Electricity hitting the daily limit [2]. - **Chip Industry**: The chip sector is rebounding, with stocks like Dawi Co. hitting the daily limit [2]. - **Nuclear Fusion Concept**: This concept remains active, with Dongfang Tantalum achieving a historical high [2]. Institutional Perspectives - **Huaxi Securities**: The firm believes that the "slow bull" market trend will continue, supported by recent positive developments in U.S.-China trade talks and other geopolitical factors [6][7]. - **CITIC Securities**: The firm notes a return to performance-driven market dynamics, highlighting two emerging trends: the safety of industrial chains and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge [8]. - **Zhongtai Securities**: The firm maintains a bullish outlook on the index, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors, and suggests focusing on AI and related fields [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend, with major indices opening higher, driven by sectors such as storage chips, CPO, and photolithography machines [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Huaxi Securities indicates that short-term risk appetite is expected to boost the A-share market, maintaining a "slow bull" trend, with "big technology" as the long-term focus [2]. - CITIC Securities suggests that the market is returning to an earnings-driven structure, with recent adjustments in active funds and a shift in understanding trade disputes [3]. - Zhongtai Securities notes that important meeting announcements are overall favorable for A-shares, particularly in technology, manufacturing, and consumption sectors, with potential for unexpected policies [4]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Huaxi Securities highlights that the upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and US tech giants will be crucial, especially in the context of the global AI arms race [2]. - CITIC Securities identifies two emerging trends: the safety of industrial chains benefiting Chinese manufacturing firms and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge [3]. - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology stocks, particularly in AI and sectors related to "anti-involution" such as polysilicon and photovoltaic components [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's industrial production has achieved rapid growth in the first three quarters of the year, driven by proactive macro policies, leading to significant improvements in corporate profitability and a stable industrial economy [1] - In the first three quarters, most industries and products in China's industrial economy experienced growth, with industrial product exports accelerating. The export delivery value of large-scale industries increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and in September, the export delivery value turned from a decline in August to a growth of 3.8% [1] - Major export regions such as Zhejiang and Guangdong also saw their export delivery values shift from decline in August to growth [1] Group 2 - The industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increasing by 9.7%, accounting for 35.9% of the total value added in large-scale industries, maintaining above 30% for 31 consecutive months [2] - Corporate profitability has improved, with profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increasing by 0.9% year-on-year from January to August, reversing the declining trend since May. Notably, industries such as non-ferrous metals and electrical machinery saw double-digit profit growth of 12.7% and 11.5%, respectively [3] - The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises has rebounded, with 21 out of 41 major industrial categories experiencing a month-on-month increase in capacity utilization in the third quarter, indicating improved corporate expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society driven by carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Control - The plan proposes a dual control system for carbon emissions, transitioning from the previous energy consumption control to a comprehensive carbon emission control, which will serve as a guiding principle for the green transformation [1]. - It includes the implementation of local carbon assessments, industry carbon management, enterprise carbon management, project carbon evaluations, and product carbon footprints, establishing a robust incentive and constraint system covering various entities [1]. Group 2: Energy Transition - The focus is on accelerating the green and low-carbon transition of energy, with a goal that by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, most new electricity demand will be met by new clean energy generation [2]. - Key initiatives include the development of non-fossil energy, promoting clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and constructing a new power system to ensure the effective integration of green electricity [2]. Group 3: Industrial Structure Transformation - The plan aims to enhance the "green content" of industries to improve the economic "gold content," targeting a doubling of the green low-carbon industry scale, currently estimated at approximately 11 trillion yuan, over the next five years [2]. - It emphasizes energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, aiming for energy savings of over 15 million tons of standard coal, which could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 400 million tons [2]. Group 4: Lifestyle Changes - The transformation of production and lifestyle towards green and low-carbon practices is highlighted as fundamental, with initiatives for clean production, large-scale equipment upgrades, and the promotion of a circular economy [3]. - The plan encourages widespread public participation in green and low-carbon actions, advocating for resource conservation and the adoption of green products to create a beautiful environment and build a beautiful China [3].

Group 1 - The market is transitioning back to a performance-driven structure, with active funds completing their position adjustments and a shift in understanding of trade disputes [2] - Two new investment themes are emerging: supply chain security benefiting manufacturing companies in China and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" indicates a shift from a defensive to an offensive economic strategy, focusing on rapid economic development and high-level technological self-reliance [3][4] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance market risk appetite and provide a clear growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [4][6] - Key sectors to focus on include AI, chips, robotics, batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology [4][5] - The market is likely to maintain a strong performance due to multiple favorable factors, including new policy deployments and improved corporate earnings [6][7] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" optimizes the path for China's economic transformation, making long-term optimistic expectations more feasible [5][10] - The focus on strategic emerging industries such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors is expected to drive market opportunities [5][11] - The upcoming economic policies and the emphasis on modern industrial systems are likely to attract long-term capital inflows, supporting market stability [8][10] Group 4 - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the coming months, driven by policy catalysts and stabilizing corporate earnings [9][10] - The "slow bull" trend in A-shares is anticipated to persist, with a focus on large technology sectors and AI applications [11] - The recovery of global manufacturing and the potential for domestic demand improvement are seen as key opportunities for investment [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of industry rotation in the A-share market, indicating a shift from sustained single-line trends to rapid sector changes, with the industry rotation index showing increased activity since 2023 [13][14] - It emphasizes the scarcity of fundamentally strong investment opportunities, suggesting that while growth investment remains relevant, the range of viable options has significantly narrowed compared to the past two decades [20][19] - The report identifies the importance of "crowding" and "calendar effects" as tools for navigating the current market dynamics, with a focus on how these metrics can guide investment strategies [37][38] Group 1: Industry Rotation Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a notable increase in industry rotation speed, with the duration of dominant trends decreasing from 6-12 months in previous years to approximately 2 months in 2023 [13][14] - The report outlines that the current market environment is characterized by a blend of "extreme rotation" and "absolute low volatility," where thematic investments and stable fundamental assets coexist [4][5] - The report provides a comparative analysis of industry performance, indicating that sectors such as military, robotics, and software are expected to benefit from low crowding and catalysts in the near term [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - For active funds, the report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth trends and catalysts, particularly in the context of the upcoming quarterly reports [6] - It recommends maintaining positions in sectors like computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while also noting the potential for increased allocations in dividend-paying sectors such as banks and home appliances as the year-end approaches [6] - The report highlights the significance of calendar effects, suggesting that both active and long-term investors may find opportunities for positioning in the market during specific periods [5][6]