1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of increasing supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis and the green column is converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 99,720 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,742 dollars/ton, down 38.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 193,339 lots, up 2,428 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 83,401 lots, up 82 lots. The LME copper inventory is 311,825 tons, down 525 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 433,458 tons, up 8,313 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 43,125 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 322,998 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 591,645 short tons, down 598 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 99,180 yuan/ton, down 1,335 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 99,335 yuan/ton, down 1,280 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 540 yuan/ton, down 745 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 102.7 dollars/ton, down 0.59 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 60.39 dollars/kiloton, down 4.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 89,660 yuan/metal ton, down 1,240 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 90,360 yuan/metal ton, down 1,240 yuan. The southern processing fee of blister copper is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the northern processing fee of blister copper is 1,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 315,793.95 tons, down 124,206.05 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,890 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper is 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.2 billion yuan, down 731.7614 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.29%, down 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 33.28%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 23.9%, up 0.0294; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.3, down 0.0723 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January to February this year, high - frequency data such as consumption and investment have rebounded. Commodity consumption and service consumption have increased by 5.7% and 1.1% year - on - year respectively. Some investment physical workload indicators such as the construction machinery start - up rate have improved significantly, and the number of capital investment events in cutting - edge fields has increased significantly year - on - year [2] - The average retail price of passenger cars rose from 165,000 yuan in 2021 to 184,000 yuan in 2024, dropped to 170,000 yuan in 2025, and rose to 180,000 yuan in February 2026, up 15,000 yuan year - on - year [2] - The "14th Five - Year Plan" outline proposes to give full play to the role of special additional deduction policies and increase the deduction of personal income tax. It is expected that the special additional deduction standard for personal income tax may be increased in the next five years, and the special additional deduction may be optimized for promoting fertility [2] - From January to February, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment totaled 75.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.6% [2] - In the United States, the core PCE in January rose 3.1% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024, and the month - on - month increase remained at 0.4%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting, and if inflation pressure persists, the time window for resuming interest rate cuts may be further postponed [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall commodity market is strong but shows differentiation in performance, with oil prices leading due to supply shocks, while non-ferrous metals are under pressure from stagflation expectations [7][10]. - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is ongoing, leading to heightened stagflation expectations and a delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with market pricing indicating a 25 basis point cut only in December 2026 [13][14]. - Domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive, driven by both geopolitical conflict-induced inflation and potential domestic supply-side policy adjustments, with expectations that price increases will continue at least until mid-Q2 2026 [15][19]. Group 2 - The report notes that the domestic economy has started the year steadily, with social financing showing a slight increase, indicating stable internal demand, and macro policy focus remaining on structural adjustments [19][21]. - The report emphasizes that the overall asset market is experiencing fluctuations without clear trend signals, with commodities and gold showing short-term upward volatility while A-shares, government bonds, and U.S. stocks maintain stable medium-term uncertainty [23][26]. - The report concludes that while global risk appetite is declining, domestic economic resilience supports the Chinese yuan, and Chinese assets remain relatively advantageous despite external uncertainties [22][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices showed a weak and volatile trend. Shanghai copper tested the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and LME copper fell below the $13,000/ton mark during the week. The macro - environment has changed, and the previous loose background supporting non - ferrous metals has shaken. The supply side has continuous disturbances in the mining end, while domestic smelting is in good condition. The demand side shows signs of improvement, but further observation of inventory reduction is needed [2]. - The recent copper price is greatly affected by the macro - level. Geopolitical conflicts lead to increased inflation expectations and reduced Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing copper prices. The low TC provides a solid bottom support for copper prices. If domestic peak - season demand is released as expected and inventory is continuously reduced, copper prices will have upward driving force. Before the geopolitical situation is clear, macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the market, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, copper prices were volatile and weak. Shanghai copper tested the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and LME copper fell below the $13,000/ton mark. The US February non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly negative, and geopolitical conflicts increased stagflation concerns. The supply side had continuous mining end disturbances, and domestic smelting was good with a 13.3% year - on - year increase in refined copper production from January to February. The demand side showed signs of improvement after the copper price decline [2]. 2. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical changes and inventory reduction [4]. 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 100460 | 101000 | - 540 | - 0.53% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 80 | - 60 | 140 | 233.33% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | dollars/dry ton | - 57.2 | - 56 | - 1.2 | - 2.14% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 101520 | 102050 | - 530 | - 0.52% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 311825 | 284325 | 27500 | 9.67% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 433458 | 425145 | 8313 | 1.96% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | short tons | 591645 | 597938 | - 6293 | - 1.05% | Weekly | [4] 4. Futures Market Review - Includes Shanghai copper price trend, LME copper price trend, and Shanghai - London ratio (without exchange rate adjustment) [6][7][9] 5. Supply Situation Analysis - Covers copper concentrate forward spot price, rough copper spot processing average price, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price trends, and main market refined - scrap price difference [14] 6. Demand Situation Analysis - Involves 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgy) [16][19][21] 7. Inventory Situation Analysis - Includes electrolytic copper spot inventory and inventories of three major futures exchanges [25]

Group 1 - The overall metal market faced pressure last week due to complex geopolitical situations and mixed macroeconomic data, with precious metals experiencing fluctuations and declines [2][3] - In the precious metals sector, the escalation of the Iran situation and rising energy prices heightened inflation concerns, leading to a stronger dollar and ultimately causing gold and silver prices to drop [4][24] - The copper market saw significant external price declines, driven by inventory pressures and macroeconomic headwinds, with COMEX copper prices falling by 3.69% [5][10] Group 2 - The ongoing US-Iran conflict has reinforced the "strong dollar + cooling rate cut expectations" narrative, which has macroeconomic implications for copper prices [6] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories exceeded 640,000 tons, reflecting a slower-than-expected recovery in demand post-holiday, putting short-term pressure on copper prices [10][17] - Market focus is on geopolitical risks and the pace of inventory reduction, with potential support for copper prices if inventory depletion exceeds expectations [7][51] Group 3 - COMEX copper prices experienced a weak downward trend, with a significant drop attributed to concerns over the Iran situation and a lack of support from US inflation data [10][11] - Domestic copper production is expected to increase, with March output projected to rise by 4.62% to 119,520 tons, despite high inventory levels [13][20] - The copper market is characterized by high global inventories, with total visible inventory reaching 1.5265 million tons, indicating limited actual consumption support [17][39] Group 4 - The precious metals market saw significant fluctuations, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.05% and 4.78% respectively, amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [24][25] - The gold-silver ratio increased significantly, reflecting silver's sensitivity to economic outlook concerns, with the ratio rising to approximately 61.2 [27] - Market volatility remains high, with gold volatility (VIX) rising above 30, indicating ongoing concerns over geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties [27][33] Group 5 - The focus for the market will be on the evolution of geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran situation, and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting regarding interest rate guidance [51] - The potential for inventory reduction in the domestic copper market during the traditional consumption peak in March and April will be critical for price direction [51] - Long-term, geopolitical risks, trade uncertainties, and declining real interest rates continue to support a bullish outlook for gold, while silver may experience greater volatility due to industrial demand expectations [51]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight a focus on strong industries, digitalization, and population development, with an emphasis on modernizing the industrial system and promoting investment and consumption cycles [6][5][27] - The report indicates that the coal industry is experiencing significant profitability due to rising chemical prices and diesel shortages, leading to potential production cuts [3][20] - The AI-driven demand for optical fibers is expected to create a supply-demand gap, with a projected shortfall of 6% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, driven by new applications in AI and drones [26][27] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term trends such as the increasing demand for medical and pension insurance, despite short-term market pressures [27][28] - The securities sector is experiencing high trading activity and is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and performance [27][28] - The NAS (Network Attached Storage) industry is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% from 2021 to 2024, driven by strong demand for data storage and management solutions [36][37]

1. Market Overview - The trading volume of the market this week was 11,521,370.6, with a week - on - week increase of 0.51%, and the open interest was 8,953,943, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [4]. - The trading volume of agricultural products this week was 2,487,110.4, with a week - on - week increase of 2.76%, and the open interest was 3,248,462, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16% [4]. - The trading volume of energy and chemical products this week was 7,108,318.2, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61%, and the open interest was 3,498,076, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [4]. - The trading volume of black commodities this week was 531,268.4, with a week - on - week increase of 1.04%, and the open interest was 825,749, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05% [4]. - The trading volume of precious metals this week was 325,839.8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.22%, and the open interest was 341,823, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05% [4]. - The trading volume of non - ferrous metals and new energy products this week was 1,068,833.8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%, and the open interest was 1,039,833, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [4]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the implied volatility, quantile, and skew of various commodity options, such as the implied volatility of corn options was 15.72%, and the skew was 47.0% [5]. 2.2 - 2.61 Option Data of Each Commodity - For each commodity option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details the closing price, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and skew of the main and secondary contracts, as well as the overall contract data [6][7][8]...[65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro and industry - related news, and future event schedules, covering multiple sectors such as energy, metals, agriculture, finance, and international affairs [5][9][36] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: US crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose, with US crude oil up 3.74% to $99.31 per barrel and a weekly increase of 9.25%, and Brent crude oil up 3.41% to $103.89 per barrel and a weekly increase of 12.08% [5] - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally declined. COMEX gold futures fell 2.00% to $5023.10 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.63%, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.25% to $80.64 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 4.35% [5] - **Base Metals**: London base metals all declined. LME zinc, lead, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel all had varying degrees of decline [5] - **Domestic Futures**: Domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends. Asphalt and bottle chips rose by more than 4%, while iron ore fell by more than 2% [6] Important Information Macro Information - US President Trump mentioned escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz and plans to strike Iran. Iran's new supreme leader vowed to continue fighting [9] - China's State Council studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [9] - China's CSRC emphasized strengthening market supervision and stability mechanisms in 2026 [9] - Central bank data showed that at the end of February, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates, and there was a net cash injection in the first two months [9] - Shipping indices showed an increase. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose 221.16 points, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose 1.7% [10] - The US is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers [12] - The US 1 - month core PCE price index reached 3.1%, the highest since March 2024 [13] - Israel's military operations against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license to allow the purchase of Russian oil and products to stabilize the energy market [16] - Methanol inventory in East China ports decreased by 7.2 tons from March 5th to March 12th [17] - Domestic nitrogen fertilizer enterprises are ensuring domestic market supply during the spring plowing season [17] - The state is organizing the early release of national fertilizer reserves [17] - Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices will average over $100 per barrel in March, $85 per barrel in April, and gradually fall to the low - $70 range later this year [19] - The international fertilizer supply chain was affected by the conflict, and the price of urea futures rose by more than 20% [19] - Anti - dumping duties are imposed on imported halogenated butyl rubber from Japan and Canada [20] - Saudi Arabia cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day to about 8 million barrels per day [20] - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, but the Kurdish region refuses to resume exports [21] Metal Futures - Sichuan's silicon production was 0 tons from March 6th to 12th, with a 0% operating rate. Some furnaces are expected to resume production [23] - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and natural rubber inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased last week [23] - Bahrain Aluminum started phased production cuts, accounting for 19% of its 1.6 - million - ton annual capacity [25] Black - Series Futures - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 69.66 tons, and the daily port clearance volume increased [27] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly, but the iron - making capacity utilization rate and daily hot metal output decreased [27] - HeSteel's silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities changed [27] - Iron ore price increases lack fundamental support due to oversupply [27] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response [28] - Steel inventories in cities and construction steel inventories increased [29][30] - In early March, key steel enterprises' steel inventories increased, and production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased [30] Agricultural Futures - Pig - farming profits continued to decline [32] - Canada's oilseed crushing volume reached a record high in 2025 [32] - Domestic oil mills' soybean crushing volume increased in the 11th week of 2026 [32] - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase, while corn production is expected to decrease in the 2025/26 season [33] Financial Market Finance - HKEX is consulting on listing mechanism reforms, including lowering thresholds for different - voting - right enterprises and optimizing second - listing rules [36] - CITIC Securities believes that corporate profit margin improvement is crucial for the A - share market, and the Middle East conflict is a catalyst for style switching [36] - FOF products in the public fund industry have seen a surge in issuance, with the total scale exceeding 300 billion yuan [36] - Active equity funds are experiencing a comprehensive recovery in scale and subscription numbers [37] Industry - The financial regulatory authorities issued regulations on disclosing the comprehensive financing cost of personal loans [38] - The property markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing a "small spring", with the second - hand housing market leading the recovery [39] - AI - related products are prominent at the China Home Appliance and Consumer Electronics Expo, and the penetration rate of AI home appliances is high [39] - The average price of passenger cars has fluctuated in recent years [40] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have adjusted performance comparison benchmarks, causing confusion among investors [40] - The three major airlines introduced new consumer - rights protection regulations [40] - China successfully launched the Yaogan - 50 02 satellite, and a recyclable rocket is expected to make its first flight at the end of 2026 [41] Overseas - Trump said it is more difficult to reach an agreement with Zelensky in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict [42] - The UK and the US discussed the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz [42] - The US reached $57 - billion worth of deals in the Asia - Pacific energy security forum [43] - Goldman Sachs expects Russia to cut interest rates [44] International Stock Markets - Tesla will start the Terafab project to manufacture AI chips in seven days [45] Commodities - Russia's oil is in high demand after the US relaxed sanctions, and Argentina raised the oil export withholding tax [47] Bonds - Strengthening the self - regulatory management of inter - bank deposit interest rates is an important way to reduce bank liability costs, and money - market interest rates are expected to decline [48] Upcoming Events - At 9:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities; at 10:00, China will release February's fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and industrial added - value data; at 20:30, the US will release the March New York Fed Manufacturing Index and February retail sales; at 21:15, the US will release the February manufacturing output index and capacity utilization [50] - At 9:20, 4.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases of the Chinese central bank will mature; at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation; the 2026 NVIDIA GTC Conference will be held in March [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US, Israel, and Iran, are significantly impacting global commodity and financial markets. Oil prices are likely to remain high due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, and this has a cascading effect on various industries, including energy, metals, and agriculture. - The uncertainty in the Middle East also affects the Fed's monetary policy expectations, which in turn impacts the performance of the stock and bond markets. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices are rising. Brent reached $106 per barrel, and WTI hit $100 per barrel. Despite measures like the release of strategic reserves and US waivers for Russian oil, the supply shortage caused by the unrest in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to keep prices high. The US plans to release 172 million barrels of reserves and then replenish about 200 million barrels within a year [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The war in the Middle East is escalating, and the Strait of Hormuz issue remains the key trading factor. The supply gap is difficult to fill quickly, and both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices are supported [21]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The planned production in March is lower than expected, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Its price will likely remain high as long as the Strait of Hormuz issue persists [22]. - **Urea**: International prices are rising sharply, and domestic production is high. However, due to peak downstream demand, factories are de - stocking. Under export control and price - stabilizing policies, the market is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East is affecting the market. The开工 rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is low, and port inventories are decreasing. The situation of Iranian plants and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz needs to be monitored [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Amidst the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the global economic outlook, precious metals are in a high - level oscillation pattern. The weakening expectation of Fed rate cuts is suppressing their prices. Attention should be paid to central bank interest rate decisions this week [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated and closed lower. The market is worried about the Middle East situation, and the risk of price decline is increasing due to the war and high inventory, although short - term spot buying provides some support [3]. - **Aluminum**: Despite high domestic seasonal inventory, overseas shortages are expected due to production cuts by Middle Eastern aluminum producers. Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly, with significant fluctuations at historical highs [4]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ingot de - stocking is slow, and the fundamental support for price increases is weak. The LME zinc price is under pressure, and the annual surplus expectation remains unchanged. Short - term attention is on the 24,000 yuan support level [7]. - **Lead**: LME lead inventory is high, and overseas surplus is being transferred to the domestic market. The downstream demand is improving slightly, but the supply pressure is increasing. The inclusion of recycled lead in delivery is putting pressure on the price center [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is mainly driven by short - term trading. The upstream price increase supports the mid - stream. Nickel inventory is increasing, and the stainless - steel inventory remains stable. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Tin**: Both domestic and international tin prices declined last week. The Middle East war and high inventory are suppressing prices. The target price is moving towards 350,000 yuan [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is falling, and the market is active. The overall de - stocking speed is slowing down. The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the demand change after the end of the March export rush [11]. Building Materials - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has slightly increased, mainly in Xinjiang. The demand from the organic silicon and polysilicon industries has limited impact. The price is expected to oscillate under cost support [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is dominated by a weak fundamental situation. Factory inventories are increasing, and the price is expected to remain low and oscillate [13]. - **Steel Products (Ribbed Bars & Hot - Rolled Coils)**: The demand for steel products is improving, but the production is restricted by factors such as blast furnace restrictions and poor profits. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand situation is marginally improving. The cost support is strengthening due to the increase in oil prices. The price is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, but the energy concern caused by geopolitical conflicts may make the prices more likely to rise. Attention should be paid to relevant news [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. International conflicts are affecting the cost and demand of these products, and the prices are likely to remain volatile [18][19]. Chemicals - **Styrene**: The cost support is strong, but the supply is expected to decrease, and the consumption may weaken [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The prices of crude oil and propylene futures are rising, which supports the market. However, the trading activity of polyethylene is low, and the high - price resistance of polypropylene is significant [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Both are showing a strong trend. The supply of PVC is decreasing, and the demand for caustic soda is improving. The prices are expected to follow the market sentiment in the short term [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices are rising due to the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices. There is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new production capacity is putting long - term pressure on the market. The supply is uncertain due to the Iranian situation, and the downstream demand also has negative feedback [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: The short - fiber inventory is rising, and the bottle - chip supply is shrinking. Both are affected by the Middle East situation and are subject to raw material price fluctuations [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with cost support from rising fertilizer and shipping prices. The impact on the market is expected to be short - term, and the price may be suppressed after the arrival of imported soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil)**: The prices are rising due to the strong performance of crude oil. The supply of palm oil is expected to tighten, and the soybean import cost is increasing [35]. - **Soybeans (Domestic)**: The price is rising, and the market is affected by the Middle East situation and the increase in soybean import costs [36]. - **Corn**: The price is following the upward trend of international oil prices. The domestic market is mainly affected by the geopolitical situation in the short term and will return to the fundamentals after the situation stabilizes [37]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products (Pigs and Eggs)**: - **Pigs**: The spot price is fluctuating slightly, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. The production capacity reduction is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain low to promote further capacity reduction [38]. - **Eggs**: The futures price declined on Friday, but the spot price is strong. The supply of laying hens is expected to be low in the first half of 2026, which may support the price [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating strongly, and the domestic cotton inventory is decreasing. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand needs further observation [40]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is affected by the production progress in different countries. The domestic sugar market is focused on production expectations, and the short - term price is under pressure [41]. - **Apples**: The price is oscillating at a high level. The demand in the northwest region is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are issues. The de - stocking speed needs attention [42]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the demand is increasing. The low inventory provides some support [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic port inventory is high, and the overseas price is strong. The medium - term trend is expected to be range - bound [44]. Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is oscillating. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may delay the Fed's rate - cut time. The relatively strong RMB exchange rate may support the A - share market. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and economic data changes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures are slightly fluctuating. The market may swing between risk aversion and inflation expectations. Strategies such as steepening the yield curve can be considered [46].

铜周报：地缘政治风险增加，铜价陷入震荡 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 宏观面 美伊冲突持续升温，布油2022年8月以来首次收于100美元上方，油价飙升打压市场对美联储的降息预期，交易员目前定价2026年降息幅度不足一次25基点，滞涨担忧加剧。 铜矿 3月13日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-60.39美元/吨，较上一期的56.05美元/吨减少4.34美元/吨。 废铜 因财税政策造成含税废铜需求增加，但市场废铜票源紧张，造成废铜实物吨尚可，但可用废铜数量不及预期，企业因奖补拖延造成现金流不足，再生加工企业整体开工率仍处于 相对低位。 精铜 嘉能可澳大利亚冶炼厂罢工，2025年曾因市场压力冶炼厂面临关停风险，后在澳大利亚联邦政府和昆士兰州政府提供约6亿澳元资金支持后，得以继续运营至2028年底，由于 精炼铜库存处于高位，罢工影响有限。霍尔木兹海峡若长时间无法解除封锁，非洲湿法铜的生产将受到硫酸供应不足的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Energy Sector**: The Middle East situation is tense, leading to high oil prices. The release of strategic oil reserves and temporary permits for Russian oil purchases cannot fundamentally resolve the supply crisis. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the key factor affecting oil prices [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is in short supply due to reduced Middle East supply and limited Russian export capacity. Low - sulfur fuel oil has upward potential due to the attack on the Fujairah port [6][8]. - **LPG**: The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz provides cost support for LPG. The domestic LPG futures and spot markets show some differentiation, and the market is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [9]. - **Aromatics - Polyester**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the cost of PTA. The supply and demand of PTA and its downstream products show different trends, and attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts [10]. - **Coal Chemical Industry**: For urea, international sentiment drives the market, with reduced inventory and a short - term supply - demand balance. For methanol, geopolitical disturbances support the valuation, but the near - end basis is weakening [12][14]. - **Salt Chemical Industry**: For soda ash, speculative demand supports the spot price, but the overall supply - demand situation is under pressure. For glass, low supply and speculative demand interact, and the future demand may improve. For caustic soda, export demand and domestic passive production cuts support the price [15][16][18]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, the macro and fundamental factors may lead to a price decline. For gold, inflation expectations and the Middle East situation affect the price. For silver, the CFTC position and macro data suggest a possible downward trend [19][21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Energy 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Logic**: Tense Middle East situation makes oil prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The US issued a 30 - day temporary permit for Russian oil purchases. The IEA released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and oil supply is tight [3]. - **Macro**: Tense Middle East geopolitics affects global inflation and economic growth, and the market has a strong risk - aversion sentiment [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - **Logic**: The attack on the Fujairah port gives low - sulfur fuel oil upward potential [6]. - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight due to reduced Middle East supply and limited Russian export. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is also tight due to the port attack, and the price is expected to rise [6][8]. 3.1.3 LPG - **Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances continue to affect the market [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz provides cost support. The domestic futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the market is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [9]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the cost, and attention should be paid to their progress [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures price rose, the supply load decreased, and the downstream demand showed different trends [10][11]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - **Logic**: International sentiment drives the market, and the support continues [12]. - **Fundamentals**: International sentiment boosts the market, inventory decreases, and the short - term supply - demand is in a good situation [12]. 3.3.2 Methanol - **Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances support the valuation, but the near - end basis is weakening [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price fluctuates, the port inventory is high, and the inland market shows different trends [14]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - **Logic**: Speculative demand supports the spot price [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Speculative demand drives spot buying, but the overall supply - demand is under pressure [15]. 3.4.2 Glass - **Logic**: Low supply and speculative demand interact [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Speculative demand drives the market, the supply is decreasing, and the future demand may improve [16][17]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Export demand and domestic passive production cuts resonate [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Export demand and domestic production cuts support the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [18]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Logic**: The price may break through the integer - level support [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals may lead to a price decline [19]. 3.5.2 Gold - **Logic**: Inflation expectations strengthen, and the price fluctuates weakly [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The Middle East situation and inflation affect the price, and the Fed's interest - rate decision may impact the market [21]. 3.5.3 Silver - **Logic**: The CFTC position warns of a potential downward trend [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The CFTC long - position of silver decreases, and macro data suggest a possible downward trend [22].