Core Viewpoint - Japan's unconventional operations have triggered a global financial market response, leading to a temporary alleviation of the "trust crisis" in U.S. assets as indicated by rising dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4.5% and 30-year yields dropping below 5% for the first time since last year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese Finance Ministry's issuance of a survey to market participants regarding bond issuance and market conditions signals a potential policy shift [2]. - Reports suggest Japan may consider reducing the issuance of long-term bonds to ease market pressure, addressing the recent surge in long-term bond yields [2]. - The combination of the survey and potential bond issuance cuts is seen as a direct response to the global asset sell-off driven by rising Japanese bond yields [2]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Markets - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has structurally shifted as the potential decrease in Japanese long-term bond issuance compels global investors to focus on U.S. bonds, leading to a significant reduction in asset sell-off [3]. - The decline in long-term bond yields has restored confidence in the stock market, with all three major U.S. stock indices experiencing gains [3]. - The breach of the 5% threshold in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields alleviates short-term concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and helps restore investor confidence in global assets [3]. Group 3: Underlying Concerns - Despite the temporary market recovery, analysts caution that Japan's actions do not fundamentally resolve structural issues, particularly regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [4]. - The risk associated with U.S. debt remains, as recent auctions for 20-year bonds were weak, and upcoming auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds will be critical indicators of demand strength [4]. - Global risk appetite remains fragile, with potential escalations in U.S. tariff policies or deteriorating economic fundamentals posing risks of renewed asset sell-offs [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Japan's recent market intervention has provided a short-term boost to global financial markets, but deeper issues such as Japan's fiscal sustainability, U.S. debt expansion risks, and sluggish global economic recovery remain unresolved [5]. - The future trajectory of global asset markets will depend on the effectiveness of policy coordination among countries and the pace of economic recovery [5]. - Any policy missteps by involved parties could trigger new rounds of market volatility in this ongoing "confidence game" [5].

周二，美国股债汇齐涨，再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后，美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨，道指涨1.78%，纳指涨2.47%，标 普500指数涨2.05%，大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹，收益率普跌，长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协：50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下，特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点，跌幅0.6%；标普500指数重挫2.6%；纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道： "希望和预期仍然是，我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明，Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称，应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求，同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by escalating national debt and weak demand in recent bond auctions, reflecting investors' demand for higher returns amid increasing fiscal risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Trends - As of May 22, 2025, the yields for U.S. Treasury bonds are as follows: 10-year at 4.6%, 20-year at 5.109%, and 30-year at 5.10%, indicating a significant rise in yields [3]. - The weak demand for the 20-year Treasury auction, requiring a yield of 5.047% to attract buyers, highlights declining market confidence following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1 [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - By 2025, approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. debt will mature, representing about one-third of all circulating market debt, with an estimated 55% to 60% maturing before July 2025 [4]. - The total U.S. national debt is approximately $36.21 trillion, with interest payments projected to be around $684 billion for the fiscal year 2025, accounting for 16% of total federal spending [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 124.4% by the end of 2025, indicating that federal borrowing is significantly outpacing economic growth [6]. - Concerns about fiscal sustainability and political gridlock are diminishing long-term confidence in the U.S. dollar, especially with increasing credit quality risks [7]. Group 4: Market Impact - Rising Treasury yields and recent bond market volatility reflect investor concerns about the U.S. government's ability to refinance large debts in a high-interest environment, which could pressure the dollar and stock markets [7]. - The S&P 500 index has shown strong recovery driven by optimism in U.S.-China trade talks, but uncertainties surrounding future negotiations and fiscal concerns pose risks to the sustainability of this rebound [8]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching a critical psychological level at 6000 points, with recent pullbacks indicating weakening momentum [9]. - The 5700-point level is becoming a significant support point; a breach below this level could trigger further downward pressure on the U.S. stock market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, driven by concerns over rising debt levels and proposed tax cuts by the Trump administration, leading to a sharp increase in bond yields and a lack of investor interest in bond auctions [1][3]. Bond Market Summary - The 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction faced extremely low demand, with interest rates soaring above 5%, marking the coldest auction in five years [3]. - The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.595%, indicating that borrowing costs are increasing for both the government and consumers [3]. Stock Market Summary - The stock market reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 817 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal policies [5]. - As the stock market declined, investors shifted towards gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, indicating a flight to safety amid rising uncertainty [5]. Investor Sentiment Summary - Market participants are skeptical about the government's ability to genuinely reduce the deficit, as highlighted by comments from industry experts [5]. - The current state of the bond market is likened to a stressed individual facing financial pressures, exacerbated by proposed tax cuts without clear funding sources [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the performance data of global asset markets on May 21, 2025, including 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economies' stock indices, credit bond indices, as well as trading data of stock index futures and government bond futures [3][4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bond Yields**: On May 21, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.601, 4.756, 3.310 respectively. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly data. For example, the latest change in the US was 0.112, and the one - year change was 0.114 [3] - **2 - year Government Bond Yields**: The 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on May 21, 2025, were 3.970, 4.078, 1.868 respectively. Similar to the 10 - year bonds, there were various changes over different time periods. For instance, the latest change in the US was - 0.010, and the one - year change was - 0.830 [3] Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Major Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On May 21, 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.646. There were different percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly data. For example, the latest change was - 0.39%, and the one - year change was 9.61% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, and middle - price of the renminbi on May 21, 2025, were 7.202, 7.204, and 7.194 respectively. There were also different percentage changes over different time periods [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On May 21, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 5844.610, 41860.440, and 18872.640 respectively. The latest, weekly, and yearly changes varied. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was - 1.61%, and the one - year change was 11.94% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Russian, Japanese, and Hong Kong stock indices, with their respective values on May 21, 2025, and different changes over different time periods [3] Credit Bond Indices - There were different percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly data for US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, and emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond indices, as well as high - yield credit bond indices [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3387.57, 3916.38, 2728.43, 2065.39, and 5757.92 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 12.65, 10.98, 29.04, 25.00, and 39.60 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [4] - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比 change were provided for S&P 500 and German DAX [4] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were 11734.45, 2170.38, 597.88, 2684.11, and 3160.19 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [4] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage of IF, IH, and IC were - 35.18 (- 0.90%), - 15.83 (- 0.58%), and - 102.32 (- 1.78%) respectively [4] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.570, 105.725, 108.835, and 106.010 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M of the money market were 1.5426%, 1.5884%, and 1.6400% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [5]

美联储副主席杰斐逊指出，需防止政策变化引发的价格上涨转为持续通胀压力。这表明美联储对通胀问 题保持高度警惕。在当前经济环境下，若通胀压力持续增加，美联储可能会采取相应措施，如调整货币 政策等。这对于投资者而言，意味着市场的不确定性增加。例如，通胀上升可能导致债券实际收益率下 降，从而影响债券市场的表现。对于 IEXS 盈十证券的投资者来说，在配置债券资产时，需要更加关注 通胀数据以及美联储后续可能的政策调整。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯提到，投资者正在重新审视其美国资产投资策略，但未见大规模资金撤离迹象。 他认为当前经济表现良好，货币政策适中，美联储有足够时间考虑下一步利率调整。这显示出美国经济 目前有一定的稳定性。然而，投资者重新审视投资策略这一现象值得关注。随着全球经济形势的变化以 及其他地区投资机会的出现，美国资产的吸引力可能会受到影响。IEXS盈十证券认为投资者如果持有 较多美国资产，需要思考是否要根据自身风险承受能力和投资目标，适当调整资产配置比例。比如，可 以考虑增加一些新兴市场资产的配置，以分散风险。同时，由于美联储有时间考虑利率调整，市场利率 在短期内可能相对稳定，但长期来看仍存在不确定性，这对固定 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - The 10-year treasury bond yields of major economies on May 20, 2025, were 4.489% in the US, 4.702% in the UK, etc. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes varied across countries [3]. - The 2-year treasury bond yields of major economies on May 20, 2025, were 3.980% in the US, 4.003% in the UK, etc. Changes also differed in different time - spans [3]. - The US dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on May 20, 2025, were 5.652 against the Brazilian real, 108.000 against the Russian ruble, etc. Weekly, monthly, and annual changes were presented [3]. - Major economy stock indices on May 20, 2025, included 5940.460 for the S&P 500, 42677.240 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were provided [3]. - Credit bond indices: for the latest change, all investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices in the US, eurozone, and emerging economies were 0.00%. Weekly, monthly, and annual changes were also shown [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3380.48, 3898.17, 2716.63, 2048.46, and 5747.37 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4]. - PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 12.59, 10.94, 29.00, 25.51, and 39.29 respectively, along with their环比changes [4]. - Risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38, - 0.53, and - 0.04 respectively, with no环比changes [4]. - The latest values and 5 - day average values of capital flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented [4]. - The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 11696.81, 2016.37, 566.74, 2657.66, and 3242.13 respectively, with环比changes [4]. - The basis and amplitude of IF, IH, and IC in stock index futures were - 32.77, - 17.23, - 96.57 and - 0.84%, - 0.63%, - 1.68% respectively [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 treasury bond futures were 108.565, 105.705, 108.840, and 105.955 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. - R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market were 1.5556%, 1.5986%, and 1.6420% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]. Domestic and Foreign Markets - There are domestic and foreign currency markets, bond markets, stock markets, and exchange - rate markets [6][7]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent trends in stock markets and the contrasting behavior of gold prices. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market has continued to rise, recovering from a short-term drop in early April, with global indices returning to around 3.5 stars after previously falling to 4.1-4.2 stars [1] - U.S., European, and Asian stocks have generally increased, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising over 2% this week, recovering losses from the tariff crisis [1] - The Hang Seng Index has outperformed the A-share large-cap index by 20% since the beginning of the year, with the healthcare and technology sectors in Hong Kong also outperforming their A-share counterparts by 20% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Despite the rise in global stock markets, gold has experienced a downturn, correcting approximately 9% since its peak in early April [1] - The strength of the U.S. dollar and its impact on real interest rates have been significant factors influencing gold prices, with a strong dollar generally being unfavorable for gold [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the lack of such funds in mainland China [8] - A "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track global stock market performance [9] - The article also highlights the release of a new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which emphasizes the importance of stock assets for wealth accumulation over the long term [11][12]