Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor stated that Iran is willing to commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions, leading to a drop of over 3% in oil prices [1] - WTI crude oil fell over 3% to $60.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also dropped over 3% to $63.97 per barrel [2] - The geopolitical situation is easing, and high U.S. Treasury yields are pressuring commodities, causing gold, silver, copper, and oil to decline [5] Group 2 - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.5% [9] - The Indian stock market maintained its upward trend after President Trump mentioned India's proposal to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods [9] - The Japanese opposition party suggested using long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and importing U.S.-made Japanese cars as negotiation leverage in trade talks with Washington [12]

Domestic Economy - The U.S. economy is currently influenced by policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, which have raised inflation expectations and created concerns about economic growth [1][18] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in March 2025, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 228,000, indicating a balanced labor market despite ongoing uncertainties [14][19] - Consumer confidence has declined following tariff implementations, with retail sales (excluding vehicles) stabilizing and vehicle sales increasing due to lower interest rates [24][26] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has moderated, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rising by 2.8% year-over-year as of March 2025, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing to 2.4% [2][26] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady in January and March 2025, with market expectations for at least three rate cuts by the end of the year [12][14] Financial Markets - The stock market faced pressure, with the S&P 500 index declining by 4.3% in Q1 2025, particularly affecting the technology and biotech sectors due to monetary policy uncertainties [2][17] - In contrast, the bond market performed well, with investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) bonds delivering strong returns, driven by declining interest rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][14] International Economic and Policy Linkages - The U.S. dollar exhibited volatility, initially declining due to tariff uncertainties and concerns about economic growth, with investors reassessing risks associated with U.S. policy [3][38] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with expectations of rate cuts in the U.S. while other regions may follow suit, impacting cross-border capital flows [3][6] Key Sector Outlook - The outlook for economic growth remains uncertain, heavily influenced by the actual impact of tariff policies and the pace of Federal Reserve actions [3][29] - The housing market showed volatility, with a decrease in existing home supply leading to fewer transactions in early 2025, although median home prices continued to rise [29][31] - Business sentiment improved in Q1 2025, with strong manufacturing data in January and February, although a dip was noted in March [32][34]

Market Overview - In the week from May 6 to May 9, 2025, oil prices surged, domestic equity market indices generally rose, while US stocks experienced a pullback [3] - All primary industries in the Shenwan classification saw an increase, with defense, military industry, telecommunications, and electric equipment sectors leading the gains [3] Fund Issuance - A total of 15 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 6.345 billion units. This included 13 equity funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 mixed fund [4] - Overall, 27 new funds were issued across the market, comprising 18 equity funds, 6 bond funds, and 3 mixed funds [4] Fund Performance Tracking - The defense and military industry theme fund performed notably well, rising by 4.46%, while the pharmaceutical theme fund saw a decline [5] - As of May 9, 2025, the weekly performance of various theme funds was as follows: defense and military (4.46%), financial real estate (2.54%), new energy (2.27%), cyclical (1.30%), industry rotation (1.25%), consumption (1.23%), industry balance (1.20%), TMT (-0.28%), and pharmaceuticals (-1.45%) [5] ETF Market Tracking - This week, equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 8.514 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs being the primary direction of outflow. In contrast, commodity ETFs, represented by gold ETFs, saw continued inflows [6] - The median return for equity ETFs was 1.86%, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 2.19% with a net outflow of 1.683 billion yuan [6] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 2.12%, with a net outflow of 1.009 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 0.67% and a net inflow of 2.025 billion yuan [6] Fund Positioning - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds decreased by 0.50 percentage points compared to the previous week (as of April 30, 2025) [8] - In terms of industry allocation, sectors such as electronics, computers, and pharmaceuticals received increased funding, while telecommunications, defense, military, and electric equipment sectors faced reductions [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - The green bond market saw a slowdown this week, with 6 new green bonds issued, totaling 6.641 billion yuan. Cumulatively, the green bond market has issued 4.43 trillion yuan across 3,822 bonds as of May 9, 2025 [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median return for actively managed equity, passive equity index, and bond ESG funds was 1.54%, 2.04%, and 0.14%, respectively, with low-carbon, sustainable development, and environmental governance themes performing particularly well [9] - As of May 9, 2025, there were 287 existing bank ESG wealth management products, with 2 new fixed-income ESG products launched this week, characterized by lower risk levels [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly related to China and the U.S. relations. Core Points and Arguments - The meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively influenced market sentiment, enhancing risk appetite, which benefits equity markets and exchange rates but may pressure the bond market. The expected impact on 10-year and 30-year treasury yields is minimal, within 1 basis point [1][4]. - The central bank's monetary policy report for Q1 has reinterpreted the reasons for pausing treasury bond transactions in January, suggesting a potential resumption of trading in Q2, particularly during the peak issuance period in May, which could favor short- to medium-term interest rates [1][5]. - The view remains bullish on the bond market in the medium term, with April treasury futures filling gaps. May and June are seen as favorable periods for buying, with aggressive investors encouraged to enter early, while conservative investors should wait for market adjustments [1][7]. - Following the recent dual rate cuts, yields on bonds with maturities of 10 years or less have decreased, and treasury futures have risen, although 30-year treasury futures have shown limited movement. The impact on the stock and bond markets is considered limited compared to previous rate cuts [1][10][11]. - China's export data exceeded expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell significantly by over 20%. The market's reaction to this news has been muted, indicating a need for further observation of long-term effects [1][13]. - The market has priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, with potential for a new easing cycle if definitive policies are announced in the coming days. Further cuts in reserve requirements are anticipated in the second half of the year [1][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations is expected to continue affecting the market, with a cautious short-term outlook for equity markets but a long-term optimistic view, particularly for the home appliance sector [2][19]. - The recent dual rate cuts have led to a significant impact on the bond market, particularly favoring short- to medium-term bonds, while the long end of the yield curve remains under pressure [3][8]. - The relationship between policy rates and 10-year treasury yields has shown signs of deviation from historical norms, indicating a need for careful monitoring of future interest rate movements [1][18]. - The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism for the bond market in Q2, with a recommendation to remain vigilant regarding potential adjustments in investment strategies [1][19].

Market Overview - The overall market showed an upward trend last week (May 5 to May 9), with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3342.00 points, a weekly increase of 1.92% [2] - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices rose by 1.93% and 2.00% respectively, while the CSI 1000 index performed notably well with a 2.22% increase [2] - The market structure remains differentiated, with small growth stocks and micro-cap stocks performing actively, while some large-cap technology indices experienced pullbacks [2] Industry Performance - All sectors showed positive performance last week, with the average increase of Wind's first-level indices at 1.87% and 95% of Wind's top 100 concept indices rising [10] - The defense, military, communication, and power equipment sectors performed particularly well, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, and 4.02% respectively [10] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 15 funds were issued last week, including 13 equity funds, 1 mixed fund, and 1 bond fund, with a total issuance of 6.345 billion units [3][4] - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 0.74% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 1.00% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 1.06% [6] Global Asset Review - Global asset markets showed significant divergence last week, with US stocks under pressure due to investor concerns about economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy [3] - European markets exhibited mixed results, while Asia-Pacific markets, including the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index, showed varying degrees of gains, indicating positive signals in the region [3] Bond Market Overview - The bond market was active last week, with the convertible bond index rising by 1.32% [12] - The 10-year government bond futures saw a slight increase of 0.01%, while the 30-year government bond futures decreased by 0.39% [12] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of A-shares rebounded, exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan, with a peak close to 1.5 trillion yuan on Wednesday [7]

Report Overview - The report is a macro team report from the research center, titled "Large Asset Morning Report", dated May 9, 2025, presenting global asset market performance, stock index futures trading data, and treasury bond futures trading data [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the 10-year treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.380, 4.545, 3.239 respectively. The latest changes were 0.109, 0.087, 0.045; weekly changes were 0.170, 0.037, 0.003; monthly changes were 0.194, -0.069, -0.158; annual changes were -0.325, 0.184, 0.112 [2] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the 2-year treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.780, 3.921, 1.769 respectively. The latest changes were 0.180, 0.124, 0.059; weekly changes were 0.010, 0.062, 0.030; monthly changes were -0.030, -0.069, -0.005; annual changes were -1.080, -0.550, -1.239 [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - On May 8, 2025, the dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. were 5.663, - , 18.201 respectively. The latest changes were -1.43%, - , -0.35%; weekly changes were 0.14%, - , -1.75%; monthly changes were -4.25%, - , -7.42%; annual changes were 9.77%, - , -4.37% [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the closing prices of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc. were 5663.940, 41368.450, 17928.140 respectively. The latest changes were 0.58%, 0.62%, 1.07%; weekly changes were 2.45%, 2.84%, 3.24%; monthly changes were 11.89%, 8.96%, 14.90%; annual changes were 12.19%, 8.62%, 14.84% [2] Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, and emerging market investment-grade credit bond index were -0.40%, -0.07%, -0.23% respectively; weekly changes were -0.88%, -0.04%, -0.38%; monthly changes were 0.28%, 1.33%, 0.22%; annual changes were 7.02%, 6.35%, 7.53% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3352.00, 3852.90, 2679.51 respectively, with changes of 0.28%, 0.56%, 0.33% [3] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 12.45, 10.81, 29.04 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.00, 0.17 [3] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of the S&P 500 and German DAX (1/PE - 10-year interest rate) were -0.25, 2.80 respectively, with环比 changes of -0.13, -0.12 [3] Fund Flows - The latest values of A-shares, the main board, and the GEM were 178.56, 85.42, 96.57 respectively [3] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 12933.77, 2469.87, 634.09 respectively, with环比 changes of -1749.40, -390.24, -172.46 [3] Basis - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were -36.90, -14.71, -113.81 respectively, with amplitudes of -0.96%, -0.55%, -1.97% [3] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 109.060, 106.180, 109.215, 106.515 respectively, with changes of -0.18%, -0.06%, -0.18%, -0.04% [4] - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M were 1.5757%, 1.6477%, 1.7200% respectively, with daily changes of -13.00, -6.00, -2.00 [4]

Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach expresses concerns about market uncertainty due to economic weakness and rising long-term interest rates, alongside increasing unemployment rates [1][2][6] - Unemployment rates are above both the 36-month and 12-month moving averages, which typically indicate a recession [2][6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising despite economic weakness, with daily interest payments on debt reaching $4 billion [1][7] Group 2 - Gundlach predicts that gold could rise to $4,000, driven by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and existing high debt levels, viewing gold as a true monetary asset [1][2][10] - The current spot price of gold is approximately $3,342.36 per ounce, indicating a potential increase of 19.68% to reach Gundlach's target [2] - The S&P 500 index support level is projected to drop from 5,600 to around 4,600, suggesting significant downside potential [1][5][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between low-quality junk bonds (CCC-rated) and higher-rated bonds (BB-rated) has widened beyond its 200-day moving average, signaling potential economic issues [2][8] - Investors are favoring more liquid assets over long-term bonds, anticipating a steepening yield curve [2][8] - The market is currently characterized as risk-averse, with gold showing stability amidst volatility in risk assets and some bond markets [9]

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market perceives a decrease in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, dropping from 73.7% four weeks ago to 30.2% last week [1] - U.S. non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - If a recession occurs in the U.S. in the second half of the year (excluding stagflation), gold prices may be negatively impacted [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommended strategies include shorting base metals and U.S. stocks, going long on silver, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions during market stabilization or rebound [1] - The risk of interest rate cuts hinges on persistent inflation in April and May, which may force the Federal Reserve to prioritize the dollar over economic and employment concerns [1] Group 3: Global Gold Demand and Supply - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year to 1,206 tons in Q1, with central bank demand at 244 tons, remaining at the three-year quarterly average [2] - Investment demand for gold, including ETFs, surged by 170% year-on-year to 552 tons [2] - Despite a 38% increase in gold prices over the past 12 months, global mine supply only rose by 0.3% or 2.3 tons, indicating a lag in supply response to high prices [2] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Policies - The geopolitical risks are expected to escalate significantly over the next two years [3] - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs aims to influence consumer behavior while simultaneously seeking interest rate cuts to alleviate public financial burdens [3] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is complex, as tariffs increase costs without directly correlating to currency depreciation [3]

Core Insights - The upcoming macro environment for the bond market may be more favorable, potentially breaking the previous price range of sideways movement, with an increased likelihood of long-term government bond yields breaking downward [1][4][33] Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, global stock markets performed notably well, with technology stocks leading the gains in both Hong Kong and the US markets, which in turn boosted European and other Asian stock markets [1][11] - The bond market showed divergence, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rising by 23 basis points and 16 basis points respectively, while Japanese bond yields decreased and German bond yields remained stable [1][11] - The US dollar index rebounded, appreciating against major currencies like the yen, euro, and pound, but depreciated against the offshore yuan [1][11] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - In April, the US PCE index grew by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations, while core PCE growth was 2.6%, indicating a further cooling of core inflation [2][12] - The US labor market remains resilient, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations of 130,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2][16] - The first quarter GDP for 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3%, significantly below the expected -0.2%, marking the lowest growth since Q1 2022 [2][21] Group 3: Domestic Bond Market Outlook - The probability of long-term government bond yields breaking downward is expected to increase, as the current tightening of funds is less likely, and any degree of easing would be viewed positively for the bond market [4][29][33] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0% in April, indicating short-term economic pressure, but the long-term positive fundamentals are expected to remain intact despite trade frictions [4][29] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are likely to be complex, but the short-term impact on the bond market is expected to be more positive than negative [4][32][33]