Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher during the night session, with the black series showing a general increase [1] - Coking coal rose by 2.60%, iron ore increased by 1.87%, coking coal gained 1.52%, hot-rolled coil went up by 1.39%, and rebar climbed by 1.36% [1] - In the non-metallic building materials sector, glass increased by 2.54%, while in the chemical products category, rubber rose by 1.19%, and butadiene rubber increased by 1.18% [1] Group 2 - In the oilseed and oil category, soybean meal rose by 0.99%, and soybean oil increased by 0.81% [1] - Energy products generally declined, with fuel oil down by 1.49%, low-sulfur fuel oil decreasing by 0.57%, and LPG falling by 0.48% [1] - In the chemical products sector, asphalt decreased by 0.28%, polypropylene fell by 0.18%, and soybean oil dropped by 0.34% [1]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a hot topic in the stock and commodity markets, with various industries responding and institutions releasing related research reports [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may develop in three phases: initial expectations catalyzed by policy, followed by rising prices of resource products, and finally, a prolonged period of high prices for these resources [1] - CITIC Securities identifies three key differences between the current "anti-involution" and the supply-side reform of 2015-2016, including broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream enterprises, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging industries [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Fund focuses on two major industrial issues: structural contradictions in capacity and disruptions to fair competition, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, where prices have dropped significantly [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" policy will have a more pronounced effect on correcting vicious competition and benefiting emerging industries, particularly in sectors with high state-owned enterprise representation [2] - Specific sectors to watch include the photovoltaic industry chain, traditional industries facing overcapacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities identifies potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" policy based on factors like state-owned enterprise representation, industry concentration, price elasticity, taxation, and employment [3] - Industries likely to benefit include coal mining, coke, ordinary steel, energy metals, glass fiber, steel raw materials, precious metals, and the hospitality sector [3]

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 低库存弱预期，乙二醇窄幅波动 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4283元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.37%），EG华东市场现货价 4348元/吨（较前一交易日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.12%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-63美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为8元/吨（环比-7元 /吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为58.0万吨（环比+3.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为54.2万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.6万吨，周度港口库存去库； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，中性，后期进口回归下港口库存仍有回升压力。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场 内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。需 求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂近期检修 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term expected to maintain a volatile pattern, Brent to be watched in the range of $68.5 - 71/barrel, medium - term bearish [2]. - Asphalt: High - level volatility, cost - end remains strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, price expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][4][5]. - LPG: Expected to be weak, with a decline in total supply, weak combustion demand and weakening chemical demand [6][7][8]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand support but is affected by supply and spot price, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - PX: Expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, with tight supply and increasing downstream demand [13]. - PTA: Expected to fluctuate, with an increase in inventory accumulation expectation and price under pressure [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to fluctuate, with supply recovery and inventory accumulation expectation in August - September, but cost support from coal prices [16][17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with production cuts planned by major manufacturers and weak terminal demand [18]. - PR (bottle chips): Expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term, with processing fees strengthening and production cuts gradually implemented [21]. - Styrene: Expected to fluctuate, with the supply - demand pattern weakening in the third quarter and price under pressure [25]. - Plastic PP: Medium - term prices are bearish, short - term prices are volatile due to cost push [26][27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a supply - demand surplus pattern and price is under pressure, but short - term watch due to strong black market [31]. - Caustic soda: Short - term expected to fluctuate strongly, pay attention to liquid chlorine price and spot [31]. - Glass: Expected to fluctuate, with the price having no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors [33]. - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate, with supply and demand factors affecting the price and overall sentiment being positive [35][36]. - Methanol: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, pay attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [38][39]. - Urea: Short - term strong, but be cautious when chasing high due to weak domestic demand and export restrictions [41][42]. - Log: Near - month contracts are in the delivery verification stage, recommend watching, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads [43]. - Double - offset paper: In a supply - demand weak situation, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Corrugated paper: In a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Pulp: SP main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [47][48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: RU main 09 contract to watch, NR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [50][51]. - Butadiene rubber: BR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the BR2509 - NR2509 spread [54]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.38, up $0.05/barrel, + 0.07%; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.19, up $0.04/barrel, + 0.06%; SC main contract 2508 rose 5.8 to 515.7 yuan/barrel, night - session rose 4.4 to 520.1 yuan/barrel; Brent main - second - line spread was $1.19/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and there may be a cease - fire in Gaza; Trump announced tariffs on products from multiple countries [1]. - Logic Analysis: Near - month spreads are strong, overseas diesel cracking spreads are high, refinery profits are recovering, short - term balance is maintained, and long - term supply surplus pressure is not fully priced [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - trading for single - side, watch the Brent range of $68.5 - 71/barrel; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable for arbitrage; watch for options [2][3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 night - session closed at 3627 points (+ 0.11%), BU2512 night - session closed at 3436 points (- 0.12%); spot prices in different regions were reported [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with supply being sufficient and demand being weak [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: Oil prices are volatile at a high level, cost - end is strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, inventory is stable, single - side price is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation, and cracking spreads are expected to remain high [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side high - level volatility; asphalt - crude oil spread is stable for arbitrage; watch for options [5][7]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 night - session closed at 4192 (+ 0.34%), PG2509 night - session closed at 4091 (+ 0.34%); spot prices in different regions were reported [5]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with overall supply - demand being weak [5][6]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreased last week, demand is weak in both combustion and chemical fields, and inventory decreased. The overall fundamentals are loose [6][7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side weak operation [8]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.304 (+ 0.25%), HH closed at 3.211 (- 3.77%), JKM closed at 12.5 (+ 0.32%) [8]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, demand is strong, LNG export increased, prices are expected to rise; European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: HH single - side buy on dips, TTF single - side volatility [9]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2964 (- 0.60%), LU09 night - session closed at 3686 (- 0.30%); Singapore paper - cargo market spreads changed [10]. - Related News: South Sudan issued a tender, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, and Singapore spot - window transactions were reported [10]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, supply is expected to increase, and demand has seasonal support; low - sulfur supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch; watch the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6724 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), night - session closed at 6752 (+ 28/+ 0.42%); spot prices and PXN changed [13]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [13]. - Logic Analysis: Social inventory is low, supply is tight, Asian PX operating rate declined, and downstream demand is increasing [13]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4718 (+ 8/+ 0.17%), night - session closed at 4732 (+ 14/+ 0.30%); spot basis changed [14]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [15]. - Logic Analysis: Futures fluctuated, spot basis weakened, domestic TA load increased slightly, downstream polyester load decreased, and inventory accumulation expectation increased [15]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4283 (+ 16/+ 0.37%), night - session closed at 4308 (+ 25/+ 0.58%); spot basis and prices were reported [15][16]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately; some overseas and domestic plants restarted [16]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to recover, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, but coal prices provide cost support [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract day - session closed at 6528 (+ 10/+ 0.15%), night - session closed at 6552 (+ 24/+ 0.37%); spot prices in different regions decreased [17][18]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [18]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants cut production, processing margins expanded, terminal demand is weak, and major manufacturers still have production - cut plans in July [18]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [19]. PR (bottle chips) - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5880 (+ 14/+ 0.24%), night - session closed at 5892 (+ 12/+ 0.20%); spot market trading was okay [20]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable [21]. - Logic Analysis: Processing fees strengthened, production cuts were gradually implemented, and it is expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term [21]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract day - session closed at 6070 (+ 139/+ 2.34%), night - session closed at 6140 (+ 70/+ 1.15%); EB2508 main contract day - session closed at 7350 (+ 74/+ 1.02%), night - session closed at 7437 (+ 87/+ 1.18%); spot prices and basis changed [22][24]. - Related News: East China pure - benzene port inventory decreased, and styrene East China main - port inventory increased [24]. - Logic Analysis: Pure - benzene supply is abundant, demand is expected to increase; styrene supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [25]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; long pure - benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; watch for options [26]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices in some regions declined, and PP spot prices in different regions changed [26][27]. - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [27]. - Logic Analysis: There is large production - capacity release pressure in the third quarter, terminal demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [27]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side medium - term bearish, short - term volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [28]. PVC Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices increased, and caustic soda spot prices in different regions changed [28][29][30]. - Related News: Product prices in different regions changed, and some chlorine - alkali enterprises adjusted their loads [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC has production - capacity release pressure, domestic demand is weak, and exports face risks; caustic soda has a peak - season expectation, but new production capacity will be released in July - August [31]. - Trading Strategy: Caustic soda single - side short - term volatile and strong; PVC single - side short - term watch, medium - term bearish; watch for arbitrage and options [32]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton (10/0.98%), night - session closed at 1048 yuan/ton (13/1.26%); 9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - Related News: The domestic float - glass market was stable, and some regions planned to increase prices [32]. - Logic Analysis: Glass prices were strong, but there is no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [33]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, glass volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [33][34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (16/1.4%), night - session closed at 1206 yuan (12/1.0%); SA9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions changed [34]. - Related News: The domestic soda - ash market was weak, and some enterprises adjusted prices; photovoltaic "anti - involution" and other news were reported [34][35]. - Logic Analysis: Soda ash prices were strong, supply may decline, demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and profits are shrinking; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, soda ash volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - Market Review: Futures prices rose, and spot prices in different regions were reported [37]. - Related News: China's methanol port inventory increased [37]. - Logic Analysis: International plant operating rates increased, imports are expected to recover, supply is loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and weakness; watch for arbitrage; sell call options [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures were strong, and spot prices increased [40]. - Related News: China's urea enterprise inventory decreased [41]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants were under maintenance, demand is affected by domestic and international factors, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term but be cautious when chasing high [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side short - term strong; watch for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [42]. Log - Market Review: 9 - month contract prices declined; some radiation - pine log prices changed [42][43]. - Related News: New Zealand port log departures and sea - freight rates changed; there were delivery intentions and pairings [42][43]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is weak, and the scale difference supports the disk; pay attention to delivery details [43]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch for near - month contracts; watch the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage; watch for options [43][44][45]. Double - offset Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was stable, and prices in different regions were reported [45]. - Related News: Some production lines in East China were shut down, and paper - enterprise inventory pressure was relieved [45]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are weak, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper market prices were stable, and some regions adjusted prices; raw - material prices were stable [46]. - Related News: Market sentiment was divided, and some paper mills adjusted prices [46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures were strong, and spot prices in different regions changed [47]. - Related News: Shandong Sun Paper will build a pulp mill [48]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for SP single - side [48]. - Trading Strategy: SP main 09 contract try to go long; reduce and watch the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [48]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract rose, NR main 09 contract rose, and BR main 09 contract rose; spot prices in different regions were reported [48][49][50]. - Related News: June national passenger - car retail sales increased [50]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for the spread and single - side [50]. - Trading

Core Viewpoint - The launch of propylene futures and options on July 22, 2025, by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange marks a significant development in the domestic futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the propylene industry chain [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to enhance the risk management capabilities of upstream and downstream enterprises in the propylene industry, addressing issues such as insufficient demand and price volatility [1][2]. - The listing of these financial instruments will create strong linkages with other chemical products like polypropylene and methanol, thereby improving the futures product system within the chemical industry [2][4]. - The new futures and options are anticipated to contribute to the healthy development of the propylene industry chain, enhancing its resilience against risks and promoting industry transformation and upgrading [4]. Group 2: Company Perspectives - Sinopec, as the largest supplier of propylene in China, views the launch as a step towards a more mature domestic futures market, providing robust tools for product inventory preservation and processing hedging [2]. - Donghua Energy emphasizes that the new futures and options fill a gap in risk management for the industry, allowing companies to lock in prices and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [3]. - Jineng Chemical, a key player in the propylene sector, expresses optimism about the role of propylene futures in controlling costs and managing risks, indicating a proactive approach to participating in these new financial instruments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority of price increases during the night session, particularly in the chemical sector, indicating a positive trend in commodity prices overall [1] Group 1: Chemical Products - The price of 20 rubber increased by 2.91% [1] - Rubber prices rose by 2.28% [1] - Styrene saw an increase of 1.60% [1] - Butadiene rubber rose by 1.59% [1] Group 2: Black Metals - Coking coal prices increased by 2.03% [1] - Coke prices rose by 1.59% [1] - Iron ore saw a price increase of 1.09% [1] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Glass prices increased by 1.85% [1] - PVC prices rose by 1.20% [1] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Pulp prices increased by 1.33% [1] Group 5: Oils and Fats - Soybean meal rose by 0.24% [1] - Soybean oil remained stable [1] - Soybean one decreased by 0.10% [1] - Palm oil fell by 0.44% [1] Group 6: Energy Products - LPG prices increased by 0.34% [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.30% [1] - Fuel oil fell by 0.60% [1]

Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 9, 2025, including base spreads, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][15][23][37][46]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Spread**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of power coal was - 175.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared to previous days [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton from July 2 to July 8, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of INE crude oil was - 26.99 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1420 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The base spread data for fuel oil was not fully available on July 8, 2025 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were - 35, 67, 95, 105, and 605 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 870 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2364 yuan/ton, and the spread of LLDPE - PP was 196 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 67.0, 60.8, - 126.1, and - 48.5 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 month spread was 9.0 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 1 month spread was - 20.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.18, and the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1502 [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 270, 65, - 40, - 130, 1250, and - 600 yuan/ton respectively [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: On July 8, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 51.31, - 0.60, - 9.88, - 23.04, - 207.63, and - 20.00 respectively; the Shanghai - London ratios were 8.08, 7.94, 8.16, 8.40, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal varied [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of palm oil was - 145 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 51 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.77, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.71 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 39.85, 19.39, 19.74, and 171.90 respectively [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For CSI 300, the spread between the next - month and the current - month contract was - 16.8 [47].

芳烃橡胶早报 | 苯 乙 烯 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 乙烯(CFR东北 | 纯苯（CFR中 | 纯苯（华东） | 加氢苯（山 | 苯乙烯（CFR | | 苯乙烯（江 | 苯乙烯（华 | EPS(华东普通 | | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | 2025/07/02 | 850 | 728 | 5805 | 5885 | 908 | | 7575 | 7710 | 8450 | | 2025/07/03 | 850 | 730 | 5865 | 5870 | 910 | | 7565 | 7725 | 8450 | | 2025/07/04 | 850 | 731 | 5900 | 5870 | 920 | | 7630 | 7765 | 8400 | | 2025/07/07 | 820 | 728 | 5860 | 5800 | 910 | | 7640 | 7765 | 8400 | | 2025/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Most chemical products are currently bearish, with a preference for holding short positions. The "anti-involution" expectation has limited positive impact on the energy and chemical sector, and the overall outlook is still bearish [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sector - Most chemical products have a mid - term structure of either shock or bearish, a short - term structure of bearish, and the strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle. The "anti - involution" expectation has a potential positive impact on PVC, but its positive impact on the energy and chemical sector is limited [2] 3.2 Individual Products 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in August, with an accelerated increase exceeding expectations, increasing the medium - term supply surplus pressure. However, due to the low inventory during the consumption peak season and the fact that the actual seaborne shipments of OPEC+ production have not increased significantly, the short - term bearishness is not obvious. The bullish factors are concentrated in the short term, and the bearish factors are concentrated in the medium term. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in shock, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. The rebound today did not change the pressure, and there was a large amount of position reduction at the end of the session. The short - term market is still weak, with the short - term upper pressure level at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [3] 3.2.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: High device profits increase the supply expectation of styrene. The start - up has reached a recent high, and there will be greater supply pressure with the subsequent launch of new devices. The current inventory is turning to accumulation, and the bearish pressure is gradually being realized. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today. Pay attention to whether it can break the support at the lower edge of the small - cycle shock range to accelerate the decline. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.2.3 Rubber - Logic: The natural rubber inventory has been accumulating against the season for 4 consecutive weeks. The "anti - involution" expectation puts more pressure on the terminal automobile and the currently over - supplied tire industry, and has no impact on rubber supply. High supply and weak demand are still the main tone of rubber supply and demand. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term pressure level is still at 14100. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.2.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires still maintains a weak demand expectation. The start - up of semi - steel tires is likely to decline in the future under the huge inventory. After the subsequent launch of large - scale devices, the surplus pressure of butadiene will further expand. The "anti - involution" expectation has a greater impact on the terminal automobile and the over - supplied tire industry, and its impact on synthetic rubber supply is difficult to judge at present and is unlikely to have a substantial impact. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. After a large increase in positions and a long - negative line on Monday, today is a rebound with a reduction in positions, but the decline path remains unchanged. The short - term upper pressure level is temporarily focused on 11380. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.2.5 PX - Logic: There is weak demand in the off - season. Although the inventory has been decreasing due to some device overhauls before, the profit has recovered significantly, and the device recovery expectation is strong. After the subsequent start - up increases, the fundamentals are expected to weaken under the weak off - season demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [16] 3.2.6 PTA - Logic: In the off - season, the downstream polyester demand is average, and the polyester start - up is expected to decline. The supply is expected to increase as the PX device overhauls are restored. The fundamentals are expected to weaken. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.2.7 PP - Logic: The PP level remains relatively high. The previously overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and there will be new capacity put into production later, resulting in greater supply pressure. The downstream start - up declines in the off - season, and the fundamentals are expected to be weak, so it is treated bearishly. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure level is focused on 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.2.8 Methanol - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic start - up has declined, but it is still at a high level in recent years compared to the same period. The arrivals in June remained high, and the Iranian devices in the Middle East have restarted. Although the current shipments are small, the concern about the long - term import reduction has weakened. The downstream demand is average, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply - demand expectation is still regarded as bearish. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today, and a new low was reached in the 15 - minute short - cycle. The recent market is still weak, and the short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 2430. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23] 3.2.9 PVC - Logic: The downstream terminal demand remains weak in the real - estate downward cycle and is difficult to improve. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to December 24, but no domestic enterprise has obtained the certification. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the supply side is low, but the start - up still maintains the same - period high. The supply - demand is weak, but the "anti - involution" expectation brings short - term positive expectations. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.2.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Domestic devices have resumed production, and ethane imports have recovered. The downstream polyester start - up declines in the off - season, and the bearish factors have not dissipated, but the currently low port inventory provides some positive support. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term upper pressure is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27][28] 3.2.11 Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, and there are plans to put new capacity into production, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [29]