社会服务新消费研究 之茶饮行业研究框架 长江证券研究所社服研究小组 2025-07-01 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 赵刚 分析师 杨会强 联系人 马健轩 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517020001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080013 SFC执业证书编号：BUX176 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 目 录 01 消费：经济周期、人口周期共振的产物 02 茶饮：空间、格局、壁垒 03 投资建议 %% research.95579.com 3 01 消费：经济周期、人口周期共振的产物 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 1.1 消费：经济周期、人口周期共振的产物 9 7 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 197 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Group 1 - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is engaged in the production and sales of liquor, primarily focusing on high-end liquor products such as "Guojiao 1573" and "Luzhou Laojiao" [5][10] - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% from the previous year [5][9] - The company has a registered capital of 1.471 billion yuan and operates in the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry [4][5] Group 2 - The company issued bonds "19 Laojiao 01" and "20 Laojiao 01" with a total fundraising of 4 billion yuan, which has been used for approved projects without any misappropriation [10][11] - The bond "20 Laojiao 01" has a total issuance scale of 1.5 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 3.50% [2][3] - The company maintains a good credit status with a total credit line of 41.51 billion yuan from various banks, of which 18.60 billion yuan has been utilized [20][21] Group 3 - The company has implemented a series of measures to ensure timely and full repayment of bond principal and interest, including establishing a special account for bond funds [12][13] - The company has not set up any credit enhancement mechanisms for the bonds, but has established effective debt repayment measures [12][22] - The company has conducted regular disclosures and held bondholder meetings, although some meetings did not reach the required quorum for decision-making [16][22]

Group 1: Coffee Industry - As of June 30, there are over 246,000 coffee-related enterprises in China, with approximately 26,000 new registrations in 2025 [1] - The registration of coffee-related enterprises has shown a yearly growth trend until 2023, peaking in that year, followed by a slight decline in 2024 [1] - Guangdong, Yunnan, and Jiangsu provinces account for over 86,000 coffee-related enterprises, representing 35.1% of the total [1] - About 1.86% of coffee-related enterprises are involved in judicial cases [1] - Recent studies indicate that the way coffee is consumed significantly affects health outcomes, with black coffee reducing cancer and mortality risks, while sugary coffee may increase them [1][2] - Drinking coffee in the morning is linked to a significant reduction in cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk [1] Group 2: Dairy Industry - Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), the controlling shareholder of New Hope Dairy, plans to reduce its stake, leading to an 8.79% drop in the company's stock price on June 30 [4] - New Hope Dairy's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 10.665 billion yuan, a 2.93% decrease, marking the first revenue decline since 2015 [4] - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 538 million yuan, a 24.80% increase [4] - In Q1 2025, New Hope Dairy's revenue reached 2.625 billion yuan, a 0.42% increase, with a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% [4] Group 3: Tea Industry - FamilyMart in Japan is recalling approximately 2.27 million bottles of jasmine tea due to potential contamination with metal fragments [3] - The recalled product, "Guangqing Baorun Jasmine Tea," is sold in 1L bottles at a price of 149 yen (160 yen including tax) [3] - The recall affects about 14,499 stores across Japan, excluding the Kyushu and Okinawa regions [3] Group 4: Pu'er Tea Market - The price of ancient tree tea from Menghai County in Yunnan has dropped by 19.66% over the past eight weeks, with current prices at 108.00 yuan per jin [5] - Other varieties from Yunnan's Lianghe County also saw a significant price decline of 16.47% [5] Group 5: Coffee Futures Market - Arabica coffee futures prices have fallen to their lowest level since December, primarily due to increased supply from Brazil [6] - The most active futures contract dropped 4.1%, falling below $3 per pound for the first time in over six months [6] - The ongoing harvest season in Brazil is alleviating short-term supply issues that had persisted due to low domestic inventory levels [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has regained its position as the world's leading IPO market, with a significant increase in fundraising activities in the first half of 2025 [2][14]. - According to Ernst & Young's report, HKEX's IPO fundraising accounted for 24% of the global total in the first half of 2025, surpassing both NASDAQ and NYSE [2]. - The number of IPOs and the amount raised in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 33% and 711% respectively compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2 - As of June 20, 2025, HKEX had 31 IPO projects with a total fundraising of 884 billion HKD, exceeding the total amount raised in the previous year [2]. - The average fundraising amount for IPOs in Hong Kong in 2023 was only 6.77 million HKD, marking a ten-year low, with only one IPO exceeding 5 billion HKD [3]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong has seen a turnaround this year, with several notable IPOs contributing to the market's recovery [3][4]. Group 3 - Notable IPOs this year include the toy company Bluc, which set a record with a subscription amount of 877.5 billion HKD, and the beverage company Mixue, which raised 1.84 trillion HKD in subscriptions [4][8]. - The performance of newly listed companies like Mixue and InnoCare has significantly improved market sentiment, with Mixue's stock price rising by 153.6% from its issue price [8][9]. - The influx of southbound capital through the Stock Connect program has reached a record net inflow of 186 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, indicating strong investor interest [9][13]. Group 4 - The structure of the Hong Kong stock market is changing, with a shift towards sectors such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods, which have shown strong performance [11][12]. - The Hang Seng Index has seen significant gains, reaching its highest levels since 2021, driven by strong performances from various sectors [11]. - The article highlights the potential for continued growth in the Hong Kong IPO market, with expectations for over 50 new economy companies to list in the second half of 2025, potentially raising over 160 billion HKD [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HK$660.00, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price of HK$507.50 [7][10]. Core Insights - The company's success is attributed to its deep understanding of the extreme cost-performance business model, which is reflected in its clear brand positioning, excellent market insight, efficient external marketing resource utilization, and strong supply chain cost control capabilities [10][41]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a seasonal ice product to a more scalable and standardized fresh tea beverage market, demonstrating its unique market insight and ability to capture the vast demand in lower-tier markets [10][13]. - The rapid expansion of the franchise model, achieving over 40,000 stores, showcases the company's ability to balance franchisee profitability and operational standardization [10][40]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The investment in the company is fundamentally an investment in its understanding of the extreme cost-performance model, which has been pivotal in its growth trajectory [10]. - The company has effectively utilized its market insights and external marketing resources to create a strong brand presence [10][41]. Business Model and Expansion - The company has shifted its focus to the fresh tea beverage market, capitalizing on the growing demand and ensuring a high-frequency repurchase rate through its extreme cost-performance strategy [13][14]. - The franchise model is designed to minimize entry costs for franchisees while maximizing operational efficiency, leading to rapid store expansion [18][40]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company employs a multi-faceted marketing strategy that includes creating memorable visual and auditory brand elements to enhance consumer recognition and engagement [41][49]. - The use of social media platforms for viral marketing campaigns has significantly boosted brand awareness and consumer interaction [50][51]. Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company has established its own supply chain to ensure quality control and cost efficiency, which includes self-production of key raw materials [51][54]. - A robust logistics and distribution system has been developed to support rapid delivery and maintain product standardization across its extensive network of stores [57][59]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 306.8 billion, RMB 347.9 billion, and RMB 389.3 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 23.6%, 13.4%, and 11.9% [4][5]. - The net profit is also expected to increase, with projections of RMB 55.2 billion, RMB 62.6 billion, and RMB 70.1 billion for the same years, indicating a strong profitability outlook [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "concentrated tea" in Japan, particularly focusing on the market dynamics and product innovations that have led to a significant market share for concentrated green tea beverages, estimated at approximately 157.5 billion yen (77 billion RMB) in 2024 [6][12][70]. Group 1: Market Overview - The concentrated green tea market in Japan has grown to account for about 30% of the overall green tea beverage market, which is projected to reach 525.219 billion yen in 2024 [6][12]. - Major players in the concentrated tea market include Ito En, Kirin, Coca-Cola, and Suntory, with a noticeable increase in product launches since 2020 [30][31]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Ito En launched the "Oi Ocha Concentrated Tea" in 2004, which has seen significant sales, reaching 10 million cases in its first year [20][21]. - Kirin's "Namacha Rich," introduced in September 2023, uses ten times the amount of tea powder compared to regular green tea, achieving over 10 million cases sold within two weeks [8][30]. - The introduction of functional labeling for products, such as Ito En's "Oi Ocha Concentrated Tea," has attracted younger consumers by emphasizing health benefits related to catechin content [22][27]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The concentrated tea trend has expanded beyond traditional demographics, with younger consumers increasingly interested in these products, as seen with Ito En's new offerings [27][70]. - The article suggests that the high concentration of tea polyphenols and other beneficial compounds could be a potential direction for domestic brands in China to explore, as the market for unsweetened tea becomes more competitive [12][56][70]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in Japan has intensified, with brands differentiating their products through higher catechin content and unique packaging designs that emphasize the "concentrated" aspect [41][44]. - The article highlights that the concentrated tea market in Japan has evolved from a niche segment to a mainstream category, driven by consumer preferences for richer flavors and health benefits [70].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices indicating a recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in June. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [3] - Production and new orders indices were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continued to expand, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.1%, showing stability, although some consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction industry saw a significant increase, with a business activity index of 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [5] Group 3: Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [7][8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rise of Chinese brands in the global market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from Western brands to local alternatives [1][8] - It emphasizes that Chinese consumers are increasingly favoring domestic luxury brands, high-end cosmetics, and local food and beverage options, marking a significant change in consumption patterns [1][4] Group 1: Rise of Chinese Brands - The popularity of the LABUBU toy exemplifies the success of Chinese brands, with its demand leading to a surge in the stock price of its manufacturer, Pop Mart [1][3] - Chinese brands like Kudi and Luckin Coffee are gaining traction by offering quality comparable to international brands like Starbucks at significantly lower prices [3][4] - The jewelry brand Laopu Gold has seen rapid growth, with its average store sales exceeding those of many foreign competitors by at least 50% [4][6] Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are now willing to pay prices comparable to imported goods for local products, as seen with the high-end tea brand Bawang Chaji, which positions itself as a premium option [4][6] - There is a notable shift in consumer awareness, with younger demographics researching products more thoroughly and seeking local alternatives that offer similar quality at lower prices [6][7] - The success of brands like Mao Geping in the high-end cosmetics market illustrates the changing landscape, as it becomes the only domestic player among the top ten luxury beauty groups in China [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Market Positioning - Many Chinese brands are expanding their presence in lower-tier cities, where consumer activity is reportedly stronger than in major urban centers [7][8] - The strategy of targeting smaller cities has proven effective for brands like Bawang Chaji and Mxue Ice City, which began in less affluent areas before moving to larger markets [7][8] - The article notes that the increasing recognition of these brands internationally will likely enhance their appeal domestically, signaling a potential end to the era where retail trends predominantly flowed from the West to China [8]

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is undergoing a milestone transformation with the launch of Naixue's "No Sugar Natural Nutrition+" plan, marking a shift from "sugar reduction" to "natural nutrition" in the 5.0 light health era [2][3] - The plan emphasizes the use of at least three green ingredients in each product, aligning with the 2023 version of the "Chinese Residents' Dietary Nutrient Reference Intake" and the "2022 Chinese Residents' Dietary Guidelines" [2][3] - The focus on health elements in tea beverages has intensified, with brands promoting low sugar, low fat, and natural ingredients as key selling points [2] Industry Trends - The introduction of the "No Sugar Natural Nutrition+" plan highlights the increasing importance of nutrients like anthocyanins, Omega-9, Omega-3 fatty acids, and dietary fiber in tea products [3] - Consumer demand for ready-to-drink tea is evolving, with a growing emphasis on nutritional health attributes rather than just sugar reduction [3] - The tea beverage industry is responding to national health policies, such as the "Healthy China Action (2019-2030)," by aligning product offerings with consumer health needs [3][4] Future Outlook - The health focus is becoming a foundational aspect of tea brands, redefining the future landscape of the tea beverage industry [4] - Experts believe that the health upgrade in the tea beverage sector serves as a positive demonstration for the entire industry, enhancing national health literacy [4]