Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 4.3%, 4.9%, and 8.7% respectively [1][10] - The bond market weakened, with an overall decline of 0.6%, and government bond yields increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 4.3bp, 10.3bp, and 8.3bp respectively [1][10] - The external markets also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 5.5% and major US indices, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, increasing by 1.8%, 3.6%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10] Group 2: A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market is approaching a critical trading zone, with the Shanghai Index nearing the October 2024 trading volume of 3 trillion, indicating potential resistance to breaking through this level [2][22] - External risks are increasing, particularly regarding US-China tariff negotiations and potential sanctions from the EU against Chinese financial institutions [2][22] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on technology and anti-involution sectors, with particular attention to humanoid robotics and the broader AI industry [3][23] - The anti-involution strategy is expected to drive demand policies, suggesting investments in undervalued chemical blue-chip stocks, vitamins, phosphorus chemicals, TDI, and coking coal sectors [3][25] - The technology sector is highlighted for potential growth, especially with upcoming IPOs in humanoid robotics and increased capital expenditure in AI services [3][24] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address the current economic situation and may reinforce anti-involution policies, which could lead to rising inflation expectations and government bond yields [3][27] - The 10-year government bond yield has been on an upward trend, reaching approximately 1.73% as of late July, with expectations of continued increases [3][27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3]. Core Insights - The demand for special steel is expected to rise due to the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station project, with an estimated special steel demand of approximately 4-6 million tons, significantly exceeding similar hydropower projects [3][7]. - Steel prices have increased, with notable weekly price rises across various steel products, indicating a strengthening market [1][10]. - The profitability of steel manufacturers is recovering, with significant increases in gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel [1][2]. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,450 CNY/ton, up 180 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel prices also saw increases of 170 CNY/ton [1][10]. - The report highlights a 5.5% weekly increase in rebar prices and a 4.6% increase in cold-rolled prices, reflecting a positive price trend in the steel market [11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.67 million tons, with a slight weekly decline of 1.22 million tons, while total inventory also saw a decrease [2]. - Rebar production increased by 2.9 million tons to 2.1196 million tons, indicating a positive trend in production for this specific category [2]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have increased by 46 CNY/ton, 45 CNY/ton, and 79 CNY/ton respectively, showcasing a recovery in profitability for steel manufacturers [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to impose tariffs on China has surprised many, reflecting the complex geopolitical pressures he faces in balancing relations with both the U.S. and China [1][10]. Group 1: Diplomatic Strategy - Lee Jae-myung has expressed a desire for South Korea to pursue multilateral diplomacy, aiming to ease tensions with China and North Korea to create a more favorable development environment [3]. - The long-standing influence of the U.S. on South Korean politics complicates Lee's diplomatic stance, as many political factions prioritize U.S. interests in foreign policy [5]. - Lee's administration is under pressure to maintain a balance between domestic political challenges and the need to navigate the strategic interests of both the U.S. and China [5][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The tariffs imposed on Chinese products, including hot-rolled steel, range from 28.16% to 3.57%, although they only affect 1.3% of China's total hot-rolled steel exports [10]. - This decision is seen as a compromise to appease U.S. expectations while minimizing backlash from China [13]. - The economic relationship with the U.S. has deepened, leading to increased pressure on South Korea's economy, including currency fluctuations and rising living costs [8]. Group 3: Military and Strategic Autonomy - Lee aims to regain wartime operational control of the South Korean military from the U.S., which would enhance South Korea's autonomy in military decision-making [8][10]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding military agreements with the U.S. are critical, as they may involve contentious issues such as the inclusion of Taiwan in defense treaties [7][10]. - Lee's cautious approach to military and diplomatic engagements reflects the delicate balance he must maintain to avoid being perceived as overly aligned with either the U.S. or China [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of high prosperity investment directions and suggests a continuous focus on these areas for sustained offensive strategies [3][20] Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (July 21-25, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: STAR 50 (up 4.63%), STAR Composite Index (up 3.95%), and STAR 100 (up 3.72%). The bottom three were: Shanghai 50 (up 1.12%), Shenzhen Dividend (up 1.33%), and Shanghai Index (up 1.67%) [12] - The top three style indices were: Mid-cap Value (up 4.29%), Small-cap Value (up 3.85%), and Mid-cap Growth (up 3.55%). The bottom three were: Large-cap Value (down 0.11%), Financial (up 0.36%), and National Value (up 1.32%) [14] - The top three Shenwan first-level industry indices were: Building Materials (up 8.20%), Coal (up 7.98%), and Steel (up 7.67%). The bottom three were: Banking (down 2.87%), Communication (down 0.77%), and Utilities (down 0.27%) [18] A-share Market Outlook (July 28 - August 1, 2025) - The macro model continues to signal holding positions, indicating that any short-term adjustments may be limited in time and space, presenting new opportunities [20] - The technical timing model shows that the Wind All A Index has a risk level of 106.78 and a composite momentum score of 69.78, indicating a strong upward trend and potential for increased volatility and sustained growth [20][24] - The report suggests maintaining positions in the A-share market, focusing on high prosperity trends, and highlights structural market movements, particularly in the STAR 50 and semiconductor sectors [21][23] Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of selecting ETFs with a minimum one-year establishment period and a fund size exceeding 100 million [67][68] - The report lists several recommended ETFs, including those focused on steel, non-ferrous metals, robotics, and 5G communications, among others [70]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, suggesting a "slowly rising oscillating market" pattern, with short-term risks of adjustment as the index approaches key levels [2][11][19] - There are two main doubts regarding the market breakthrough: "the fundamentals have not yet bottomed" and "the fiscal support for anti-involution is weak" [12][30] - The central Huijin is identified as a core driving force behind the current market breakthrough, providing stability and support through sustained long-term capital inflows [13][19] Group 2 - The trading heat is currently high, with a significant number of industries showing increased trading activity, particularly in anti-involution sectors [20][21] - The report highlights that the trading volume in several anti-involution industries has surpassed warning thresholds, indicating heightened market activity [23][28] - The report notes that while the overall trading heat is elevated, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the market rally, as seen in previous years [21][30] Group 3 - The anti-involution market phase is characterized by skepticism regarding the strength of fiscal support, despite recent policy changes that may extend the definition of anti-involution [30][31] - Future prospects for the anti-involution market depend on the strength of demand-side policies; insufficient support may lead to a temporary rebound rather than a sustained reversal [34][35] - The report outlines three advantages driving the anti-involution trend: high-level policy attention, clean chip distribution in industries, and increased market risk appetite [31][32] Group 4 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [35][36] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods, with an emphasis on areas showing marginal improvement in profit growth [36][37] - The report suggests that the current market environment requires a "bull market mindset" while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid blind chasing of highs [35][36]

亚太瞭望台 韩国总统李在明近期的一系列举动，如同走钢丝般在中美之间摇摆不定，最终却似乎伤及自身。他拒绝出席中国"9·3"阅兵、对中国钢材加征高额关税，表 面看似贸易摩擦，实则反映了韩国在美中博弈中被迫采取的无奈策略，一种夹缝求生的"政治算盘"。 这一切的根源在于美国总统特朗普7月7日发出的"关税大棒"：8月1日起，对韩国汽车、钢铁、半导体等核心出口产品加征25%关税。这一举动直接威胁到韩 国每年对美出口180亿美元的汽车产业和120亿美元的钢铁产业，让韩国经济命脉岌岌可危。 美国开出的交换条件，远不止于取消关税。据韩媒透露，美方甚至要求李在明政府加入"反华技术联盟"，以此作为关税豁免的筹码，并要求韩国在造船业领 域联手打压中国份额。 韩国政府内部会议也划定了两条不可触碰的底线：大米和牛肉。自2008年以来，韩国一直以防疯牛病为由禁止进口美国30月龄以上 牛肉，并对美国大米征收高达513%的关税，仅允许每年5%的关税配额（13万吨）进口。农业团体已放话，若政府在此问题上让步，将发动全国抗议。 因此，李在明政府只能选择对中国钢材加征关税这条看似"成本最低"的道路，向美国表忠心。然而，此举却给韩国经济带来沉重打击。 ...

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Group 1 - China Baowu Steel Group is focusing on using information technology, digitalization, and intelligence to drive innovation in the steel industry, elevating "AI redefining steel" to a company strategy [2] - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., a flagship subsidiary, has developed a new round of digital transformation strategy marked by "AI+", planning to build 1,000 "AI+" applications to promote digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in the steel industry [3][5] - The "Steel Big Model" developed by Baoshan Software won the SAIL award, recognized for its outstanding contribution to the integration of AI technology and the steel industry [2] Group 2 - The "AI+" overall solution has achieved deep application in 105 typical scenarios, covering 18 core business areas in the steel industry, with a key process coverage rate exceeding 85% [2] - The implementation of smart scheduling has improved production efficiency, with one base achieving an annual increase in efficiency of 1.79 million yuan per machine, potentially increasing annual benefits by over 100 million yuan for the entire base [3] - Baowu is establishing specialized, digital platforms for equipment maintenance, industrial product procurement, and logistics to enhance service efficiency and create a modern service industry system driven by intelligence [4] Group 3 - Baowu has established the Industrial Intelligence Research Institute and the Digital Industry Research Institute to accelerate breakthroughs in core technologies, emphasizing self-controllable technology [5] - The company aims to achieve a transformation from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" and from "modern management" to "intelligent management" through a series of key actions [5] - Baowu plans to focus on six key areas, including data foundation construction, deepening the steel big model, empowering transformation through intelligent agents, and enhancing AI innovation demonstration [5]

"刚在机场系好安全带，就收到谈判被取消的短信——这大概是韩国经济副总理具润哲本周最狼狈的时 刻。" 当地时间7月24日上午，仁川机场的广播还在催促赴美乘客登机，具润哲却只能转身走出航站楼。就在 三天前，美国刚和日本敲下5500亿美元的投资协议，转头就用"财长临时有事"的理由，给了急着谈判的 韩国一记冷拳。 而更让特朗普没想到的是，被架在火上烤的韩国，居然敢直接划出"不妥协红线"——这盘贸易棋局，正 朝着越来越有意思的方向走。 美国财政部部长（资料图） 一、特朗普的"关税计时器"：谁先眨眼谁输？ 特朗普最近把社交媒体当成了贸易谈判的"主战场"。7月7日，他一口气给日本首相和韩国总统发了"关 税通牒"：从2025年8月1日起，对日韩输美产品征收25%关税。这就像按下了倒计时器，各国必须在半 个月内谈出结果，否则就得乖乖交钱。 更狠的是他7月23日那番话："关税嘛，15%到50%之间浮动，看我们跟这个国家关系怎么样了。"这话 翻译过来就是：听话的给糖吃，犟嘴的挨棍子。 日本显然是"吃糖"的那个——交出5500亿美元投资后，关税降到了15%。而韩国呢？还在跟美国掰 扯"能不能少收点钢铁和汽车税"，结果连谈判桌都没摸到 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry is included in the national carbon market, which aims for a green and low-carbon transition, with the path still needing clarification [1] - As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances reached 679 million tons, with a transaction value of 46.64 billion yuan [1] - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering key industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with approximately 3,700 enterprises and an annual emission coverage of over 8 billion tons [1] Group 2 - The regulatory framework for the national carbon market has been established, consisting of administrative regulations, departmental rules, and technical specifications [2] - In 2024, the trading volume was 18.8 million tons, with a transaction value of 18.044 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.92% [2] - The carbon allowance price has increased from 48 yuan per ton at the start to a current range of 70-80 yuan per ton, with a peak above 100 yuan in April 2024 [2] Group 3 - The expansion of the carbon market to three additional industries faces challenges such as weak data foundations and insufficient carbon management capabilities [3] - The steel industry will undergo a phased and orderly entry into the carbon market, with a focus on improving data quality and enhancing enterprise capabilities [3] - The next steps include accelerating the green and low-carbon transition in the steel industry and familiarizing enterprises with market rules [3]