1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The war process remains the main trading line in the commodity market. The performance of various commodities next week is likely to be similar to this week, with energy and chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals. However, due to high war uncertainty, market volatility will remain high, and caution is needed when deploying unilateral strategies [2][17]. - Geopolitical risks will support energy prices such as crude oil. The war's spill - over effect will continue to support agricultural product prices. Chemical products will also benefit from the war. Black commodities face a contradiction between rising costs and weak downstream demand. Precious metals are short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Non - ferrous metals perform weakly overall, but some varieties will benefit from the war [17][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: War Rhythm Repeated, Energy and Chemicals Continue to Lead - This week (03.09 - 03.15), commodities generally rose. In terms of sectors: energy > oil - based chemicals > coal - based chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. The US - Iran war rhythm was repeated, but the conflict was intensifying overall. Oil prices rose significantly and spilled over to chemical products, coal, and the oilseed sector. Then, due to Trump's statement and market expectations, the commodity trend reversed. Finally, with Iran's tough attitude and Trump's shift to confrontation, energy and chemicals led the rise, while non - ferrous metals and precious metals were weak [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: War Drives Inflation, Energy and Chemicals Perform Well - The war - inflation - interest rate cut expectation remains the main focus of the market. Considering the tendency of war escalation, the performance of various commodities will probably be similar to this week. Geopolitical risks support energy prices. Chemical products benefit from the war. The war's spill - over effect supports agricultural product prices. Black commodities face cost - demand contradictions. Precious metals are short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Non - ferrous metals perform weakly, but some varieties benefit from the war [17][18][19][20]. 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose. As of March 14, the US dollar index rose 1.56% to 100.5040 compared to last weekend's close, and the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.28%, up 13BP from last weekend. The Sino - US 10Y Treasury yield spread was inverted by 246.5BP. The market's focus was on the US - Iran war. Inflation expectations rose, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations were continuously revised downwards, leading to a stronger US dollar and weaker US Treasuries. The RMB had appreciation momentum, but the strong US dollar inhibited its appreciation [21][22]. 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - The US - Iran war was intense this week, and the oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz was basically interrupted. Crude oil prices rose in significant fluctuations. Due to energy substitution, cost transmission, rising transportation costs, and increased market risk - aversion sentiment, coking coal prices also rose [30]. 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - This week, production - end data showed differentiation. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines, the operating rates of automobile all - steel and semi - steel tires all seasonally rebounded. The production - end data of chemical products generally weakened. Methanol was mainly affected by seasonal maintenance, and PE, PTA, PVC and other varieties were greatly affected by rising upstream prices. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises also decreased [33]. 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - Gold and silver inventories decreased slightly. Although the downstream restocking demand drove a slight reduction in the inventories of glass, soda ash and other commodities, most industrial product inventories were still significantly accumulating, and the inventory accumulation of some commodities exceeded the seasonal level. The demand recovery situation needs to be closely monitored [49]. 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - This week, the real - estate market data showed differentiation. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities and the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 cities increased but did not significantly exceed the seasonal level. The listing volume of second - hand housing began to turn from a decline to an increase, and the listing price began to decline. The issuance and net financing scale of government bonds were 5675.45 billion yuan and - 2563.63 billion yuan respectively, and the net financing amount decreased significantly compared to the previous value. The subway passenger volume in the top ten cities, the apparent consumption of rebar, and the daily power consumption of power plants in 25 provinces all increased. Freight prices continued to rise, and the risk of weakening external demand needs to be vigilant [73][74]. 3.7 Key Commodity Basis The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal, but no specific analysis is given [88][89][91][93][94][95][97]. 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios The report provides data on commodity price ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio, but no specific analysis is given [98][99][102][103][107]. 3.9 Summary and Outlook The performance order of commodities is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals, precious metals [3][107].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.26% to 4084.79, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.19% to 14307.58, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.41% to 3357.02 [3][4]. Sector Performance - The storage chip sector experienced a surge with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Jin Tai Yang (+20.01%), Langke Technology (+20.00%), and Chaoying Electronics (+10.00%) [5][6]. - Conversely, the steel sector faced adjustments, with Nanjing Steel falling over 7% and other stocks like Ling Steel and CITIC Special Steel also declining [7][8]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, communications, and non-bank financial sectors, while public utilities, power equipment, and steel sectors saw net outflows [10]. - Notable individual stock inflows included Zhaoyi Innovation with a net inflow of 5.349 billion, while China Power Construction faced a net outflow of 1.378 billion [10]. Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities highlighted that performance will be a core anchor for the next phase of the market [11]. - CITIC Securities expressed optimism regarding NVIDIA's GTC 2026 conference, which is expected to bolster market confidence in the sustained growth of the AI industry [11]. - Huatai Securities recommended focusing on opportunities in inference computing power, platform-based infrastructure, and applications with ecological barriers [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [4]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [2][7]. - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, but market-driven supply adjustments are starting to take place [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing supply and demand, optimizing product structure, and the need for structural reforms in the steel industry [4][6]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Demand is anticipated to stabilize, with a notable decrease in the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand. Infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are expected to see steady growth in steel consumption [4][6]. - The total social inventory of major steel products reached 14.23 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventory rose to 5.52 million tons, up by 30,000 tons [9][13]. Profitability - The report indicates a rebound in profitability, with the average profit margin for rebar rising to 182 CNY/ton, an increase of 34 CNY/ton week-on-week. Hot-rolled coil profit margins also increased to 46 CNY/ton, up by 2 CNY/ton [33][39]. Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with Shanghai rebar prices rising by 60 CNY/ton to 3,260 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled coil prices increasing by 60 CNY/ton to 3,310 CNY/ton [7][39]. - International steel prices have decreased, with U.S. rebar prices dropping to 1,026 USD/ton, a decline of 19 USD/ton week-on-week [36]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices have rebounded, with the price at Rizhao Port reaching 799 CNY/ton, an increase of 20 CNY/ton. The futures price also rose by 21.5 CNY/ton to 772 CNY/ton [39][46]. - The report notes an increase in iron ore port inventory, which rose to 17.182 million tons, up by 700,000 tons week-on-week [46][53].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight a focus on strong industries, digitalization, and population development, with an emphasis on modernizing the industrial system and promoting investment and consumption cycles [6][5][27] - The report indicates that the coal industry is experiencing significant profitability due to rising chemical prices and diesel shortages, leading to potential production cuts [3][20] - The AI-driven demand for optical fibers is expected to create a supply-demand gap, with a projected shortfall of 6% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, driven by new applications in AI and drones [26][27] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term trends such as the increasing demand for medical and pension insurance, despite short-term market pressures [27][28] - The securities sector is experiencing high trading activity and is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and performance [27][28] - The NAS (Network Attached Storage) industry is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% from 2021 to 2024, driven by strong demand for data storage and management solutions [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that oriented silicon steel has increased in price for the first time since October 12, 2024, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2] - The liquidity indicators show a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings, with the current price of London gold at $5,018 per ounce, reflecting a 2.90% decrease from the previous week [11] - The report notes that the national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at its highest level for the same period in five years, suggesting robust activity in the construction and real estate sectors [19] Summary by Sections Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.16% this week, with a total of 1,071.56 tons [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in February 2026, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [16] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate was 87% this week, with a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points [10] - The price of rebar increased by 2.84% this week, while the cement price index decreased by 0.27% [10] Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.75% to 13,500 yuan per ton, with a gross profit margin of -1,901 yuan per ton [76] - The flat glass price rose by 0.37% to 1,175 yuan per ton, with an operating rate of 70.81% [76] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index was reported at 48.60% in February [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.83% to 25,100 yuan per ton, with estimated profits of 7,728 yuan per ton [10] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The overall steel industry gross profit was reported at 153 yuan per ton, reflecting a 12.0% increase week-on-week [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro and industry - related news, and future event schedules, covering multiple sectors such as energy, metals, agriculture, finance, and international affairs [5][9][36] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: US crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose, with US crude oil up 3.74% to $99.31 per barrel and a weekly increase of 9.25%, and Brent crude oil up 3.41% to $103.89 per barrel and a weekly increase of 12.08% [5] - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally declined. COMEX gold futures fell 2.00% to $5023.10 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.63%, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.25% to $80.64 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 4.35% [5] - **Base Metals**: London base metals all declined. LME zinc, lead, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel all had varying degrees of decline [5] - **Domestic Futures**: Domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends. Asphalt and bottle chips rose by more than 4%, while iron ore fell by more than 2% [6] Important Information Macro Information - US President Trump mentioned escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz and plans to strike Iran. Iran's new supreme leader vowed to continue fighting [9] - China's State Council studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [9] - China's CSRC emphasized strengthening market supervision and stability mechanisms in 2026 [9] - Central bank data showed that at the end of February, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates, and there was a net cash injection in the first two months [9] - Shipping indices showed an increase. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose 221.16 points, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose 1.7% [10] - The US is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers [12] - The US 1 - month core PCE price index reached 3.1%, the highest since March 2024 [13] - Israel's military operations against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license to allow the purchase of Russian oil and products to stabilize the energy market [16] - Methanol inventory in East China ports decreased by 7.2 tons from March 5th to March 12th [17] - Domestic nitrogen fertilizer enterprises are ensuring domestic market supply during the spring plowing season [17] - The state is organizing the early release of national fertilizer reserves [17] - Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices will average over $100 per barrel in March, $85 per barrel in April, and gradually fall to the low - $70 range later this year [19] - The international fertilizer supply chain was affected by the conflict, and the price of urea futures rose by more than 20% [19] - Anti - dumping duties are imposed on imported halogenated butyl rubber from Japan and Canada [20] - Saudi Arabia cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day to about 8 million barrels per day [20] - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, but the Kurdish region refuses to resume exports [21] Metal Futures - Sichuan's silicon production was 0 tons from March 6th to 12th, with a 0% operating rate. Some furnaces are expected to resume production [23] - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and natural rubber inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased last week [23] - Bahrain Aluminum started phased production cuts, accounting for 19% of its 1.6 - million - ton annual capacity [25] Black - Series Futures - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 69.66 tons, and the daily port clearance volume increased [27] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly, but the iron - making capacity utilization rate and daily hot metal output decreased [27] - HeSteel's silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities changed [27] - Iron ore price increases lack fundamental support due to oversupply [27] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response [28] - Steel inventories in cities and construction steel inventories increased [29][30] - In early March, key steel enterprises' steel inventories increased, and production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased [30] Agricultural Futures - Pig - farming profits continued to decline [32] - Canada's oilseed crushing volume reached a record high in 2025 [32] - Domestic oil mills' soybean crushing volume increased in the 11th week of 2026 [32] - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase, while corn production is expected to decrease in the 2025/26 season [33] Financial Market Finance - HKEX is consulting on listing mechanism reforms, including lowering thresholds for different - voting - right enterprises and optimizing second - listing rules [36] - CITIC Securities believes that corporate profit margin improvement is crucial for the A - share market, and the Middle East conflict is a catalyst for style switching [36] - FOF products in the public fund industry have seen a surge in issuance, with the total scale exceeding 300 billion yuan [36] - Active equity funds are experiencing a comprehensive recovery in scale and subscription numbers [37] Industry - The financial regulatory authorities issued regulations on disclosing the comprehensive financing cost of personal loans [38] - The property markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing a "small spring", with the second - hand housing market leading the recovery [39] - AI - related products are prominent at the China Home Appliance and Consumer Electronics Expo, and the penetration rate of AI home appliances is high [39] - The average price of passenger cars has fluctuated in recent years [40] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have adjusted performance comparison benchmarks, causing confusion among investors [40] - The three major airlines introduced new consumer - rights protection regulations [40] - China successfully launched the Yaogan - 50 02 satellite, and a recyclable rocket is expected to make its first flight at the end of 2026 [41] Overseas - Trump said it is more difficult to reach an agreement with Zelensky in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict [42] - The UK and the US discussed the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz [42] - The US reached $57 - billion worth of deals in the Asia - Pacific energy security forum [43] - Goldman Sachs expects Russia to cut interest rates [44] International Stock Markets - Tesla will start the Terafab project to manufacture AI chips in seven days [45] Commodities - Russia's oil is in high demand after the US relaxed sanctions, and Argentina raised the oil export withholding tax [47] Bonds - Strengthening the self - regulatory management of inter - bank deposit interest rates is an important way to reduce bank liability costs, and money - market interest rates are expected to decline [48] Upcoming Events - At 9:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities; at 10:00, China will release February's fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and industrial added - value data; at 20:30, the US will release the March New York Fed Manufacturing Index and February retail sales; at 21:15, the US will release the February manufacturing output index and capacity utilization [50] - At 9:20, 4.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases of the Chinese central bank will mature; at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation; the 2026 NVIDIA GTC Conference will be held in March [52]

Market Updates - JD Health (06618) rose over 4.5% following a strategic partnership announcement with leading medical device brand Yuyue Medical [1] - Kangfang Biopharma (09926) increased by over 5.7% after receiving NMPA clinical trial approval for its novel tri-specific antibody drug AK150 for treating advanced malignant solid tumors [1] - Yunfeng Financial (00376) saw a significant rise of 14.18%, with a previous day increase of over 10%, amid a temporary suspension announcement related to a major stock price surge [1] - Steel stocks collectively declined, with Asia Pacific Resources (01104) down 7.59% and Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) down 7.28% [1] Earnings Warnings and Gains - Jiuyuan Group (00827) fell over 20% after issuing a profit warning, projecting a net loss of approximately RMB 709 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, an increase from a loss of RMB 505 million in 2024 [2] - Changfeng Pharmaceutical (02652) surged nearly 43% after announcing that its inhalation powder ICF001 for treating pulmonary arterial hypertension has received NMPA acceptance for clinical trial application [2] - Yicheng Industrial (01596) rose over 76% after announcing a projected net profit of approximately RMB 334 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, compared to a net loss of RMB 57.7 million in 2024 [3] - Akeso Biopharma (09939) increased by over 10.7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with Funo Pharmaceuticals to develop a new cosmetic product [3] Other Notable Movements - Soundon Technology (02495) rose over 5% after projecting a net profit of no less than RMB 120 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, compared to a net loss of RMB 481 million in 2024 [4] - Starry Chain Group (00399) saw an increase of 18.52% after announcing a memorandum of understanding with Newbridge Acquisition Limited for potential acquisition opportunities [4] US Market Highlights - Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY.US) rose 1.11% as it welcomed Apple's adjustment of App Store commission policies in China [5] - Meta (META.US) fell 3.83%, marking its largest intraday drop since March 6, due to delays in the release of its new AI model [5] - Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US) dropped 14.24% despite strong same-store sales growth, as fourth-quarter profits fell short of expectations [5] - Bitcoin rose over 5% to $73,764, while Ethereum increased over 6.5% to $2,201.41, reflecting a positive trend in the cryptocurrency sector [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It points out that the current geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have a significant impact on the global market, leading to increased price volatility and uncertainty in various futures markets. The market is mainly affected by factors such as energy prices, supply and demand, and policy changes, and different markets show different trends and trading opportunities [21][60][71]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: High oil prices trouble the market. The Middle East situation and oil prices are important factors affecting the market. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate while waiting for the situation to become clear. Suggested trading strategies include grid operation for single - side trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF for arbitrage, and double - buy strategy for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the operation should be mainly based on a bearish mindset. Pay attention to changes in external demand and the central bank's liquidity injection attitude [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The macro - impact increases, and the market continues to oscillate. The price is affected by factors such as soybean arrivals and macro - environment. It is recommended to be cautious in trading [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices oscillate, and domestic sugar prices tend to be strong. International sugar prices are supported by factors such as production cuts in major producing countries, while domestic sugar prices are affected by supply and import policies. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou sugar in the short term [32][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The expectation of bio - diesel is good, and oils are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to hold a long position in the short term [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The increase in millet auctions leads to high - level oscillation in the market. Affected by factors such as crude oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [39][40]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the price has generally increased. However, due to the large inventory and high slaughter weight, the price still faces certain pressure. It is recommended to short the near - month contract [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are strong, and the futures market oscillates strongly. Affected by factors such as spot prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract on dips [44][45]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and egg prices are mainly stable. Considering the off - season consumption and inventory situation, it is recommended to short the June contract [48][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price is relatively firm. However, due to factors such as high 5 - month contract prices and the approaching new - season production period, it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: There is strong support at the bottom of cotton prices, and the trend is oscillating and strengthening. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and international trade, it is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton on dips [55][56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Raw materials provide support, and steel prices maintain an oscillating trend. Affected by factors such as downstream demand, inventory, and overseas geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy [60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They operate in an oscillating and strengthening manner. Affected by factors such as international oil and gas prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on dips [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase, and spot hedging at high levels is the main strategy. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to hedge at high levels [65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The positive feedback continues, and the driving force remains strong. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to operate in a high - level oscillating manner [67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The geopolitical situation is repeated, and gold and silver are in an oscillating state. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and inflation expectations, it is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Concerns about secondary inflation suppress the market, and precious metals oscillate weakly. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and economic data, it is recommended to wait and see, and look for long - entry opportunities for platinum on dips [74][75]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continue to disturb, and copper prices continue to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to be cautious about liquidity risks [78][79]. - **Alumina**: Freight rates increase, and alumina fluctuates with market sentiment. Affected by factors such as freight rates and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to rebound in an oscillating manner in the short term [82][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The reduction of aluminum production in the Middle East expands, and Mozal stops production as scheduled. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long on dips [84][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It operates strongly following the aluminum price. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to operate strongly following the aluminum price [88][90]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on zinc prices. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long on dips [91][92]. - **Lead**: Buy on dips. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [95][96]. - **Nickel**: The rise of the US dollar suppresses non - ferrous metals. Affected by factors such as the US dollar and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to wait for the external market to stabilize [100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates within a range. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to operate within a range [103][104]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillates in the short term and waits for policy guidance. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policies, it is recommended to wait and see [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it oscillates at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policies, it is recommended to go long on dips after the price stabilizes [107][109]. - **Tin**: The risk - aversion sentiment is high, and tin prices oscillate and decline. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to short tin [110][111]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The situation in Iran escalates after the US attacks Hagh Island. Pay attention to the collection of fuel surcharges by shipping companies. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and fuel prices, it is recommended to wait and see [112][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues. Pay attention to the progress of iron ore negotiations between China and Australia. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, different ship - type markets show different trends [116][119]. - **Carbon Emissions**: Domestic trading remains dull, and there is still debate within the EU. Affected by factors such as policies and geopolitical conflicts, the carbon market in China and the EU shows different trends [121][125]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict continues to intensify, and oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to go long at a high level [128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks fluctuate sharply. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to operate in a high - level oscillating manner [130][132]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation remains tense, and the trend is oscillating and strengthening. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to operate in a high - level oscillating manner [134][137]. - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continue, and the upward trend remains unchanged. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, it is recommended to wait and see [138][140]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long due to supply - shortage expectations [141][143]. - **BZ & EB**: The domestic operating loads of pure benzene and styrene both decline. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of logistics on supply [144][146]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene cracking enterprises reduce their loads. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long as the supply - demand structure improves [147][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost side and strengthens. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long following the cost side [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory reduction in the first quarter is limited. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long following the cost side [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand provide support. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long as the trend is upward [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions, and PP continues to be stronger than L. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to hold long positions for both L and PP [157][160]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda strengthens. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long [161][162]. - **PVC**: It oscillates widely. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long on dips [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates weakly. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to operate in a wide - range oscillating and weakly - downward manner [166][168]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, it oscillates widely, and the direction is downward. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to operate in a wide - range oscillating and weakly - downward manner [169][171]. - **Methanol**: It mainly oscillates at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to go long on dips [172][174]. - **Urea**: It oscillates mainly. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policies, it is recommended to operate in an oscillating and weakly - downward manner [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price has weak rebound momentum. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to go short [178][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The shipment is average, and the market demand is relatively stable. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to go short on rallies [182][184]. - **Log**: The import cost increases. Pay attention to the resumption of construction sites. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, it is recommended to go long on dips [186][187]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The inventory at the RU warehouse end accumulates at a slightly faster rate. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to go long on the RU 05 contract with a stop - loss [190][192]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR warehouse receipts continue to accumulate. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and inventory, it is recommended to hold long positions for the BR 05 contract with a stop - loss [195][197].

2026 年 3 月 16 日 螺纹钢：成本重心抬升，价格宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：成本重心抬升，价格宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 3 月 12 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹+21.99 万吨，热卷-5.85 万吨，五大品种合计+23.73 万吨； 总库存方面，螺纹+18.49 万吨，热卷-0.1 万吨，五大品种合计+22.89 万吨；表需方面，螺纹+78.58 万 吨，热卷+13.79 万吨，合计+106.73 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | RB2605 | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） 3,142 | 涨跌（元/吨） 18 | 涨跌幅（%） 0.58 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | HC260 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [4]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [2]. - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing supply and demand, optimizing product structure, and the necessity for structural reforms in the steel industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Demand is projected to stabilize, with a decrease in the real estate sector's contribution to steel demand becoming less impactful. Growth in steel demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to be steady [4]. - The total social inventory of major steel products reached 14.23 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week-on-week. Steel mill inventories also rose to 5.52 million tons, up by 30,000 tons [9][29]. Profitability - The report notes a rebound in production profits for rebar and hot-rolled steel, with average gross margins for hot-rolled steel increasing by 2 CNY/ton to 46 CNY/ton, and for rebar, the average gross margin rose by 34 CNY/ton to 182 CNY/ton [33][39]. Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with Shanghai rebar prices rising by 60 CNY/ton to 3,260 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled coil prices increasing by 60 CNY/ton to 3,310 CNY/ton [7][39]. - International steel prices have decreased, with U.S. rebar prices dropping by 19 USD/ton to 1,026 USD/ton, and European prices falling by 58 USD/ton to 715 USD/ton [36]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices have rebounded, with the price at Rizhao Port increasing by 20 CNY/ton to 799 CNY/ton, while futures prices rose by 21.5 CNY/ton to 772 CNY/ton [39][46]. - The report indicates an increase in iron ore port inventories, which rose by 700,000 tons to 17.182 million tons [46]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with technological and product structure advantages, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4].