这是新消费智库第 2 7 5 7 期文章 新消费导读 1. 神探伍伍 | 低升糖指数原切苹果脆 2. 喜茶上线苹果小奶茉牛乳茶 3. 星期零推出 2026 马年新春限定礼盒 4. 七鲜 |12 度浓醇豆浆 5. 立顿推出香菜奶茶 6. 佳沃焕鲜香气蓝莓 7. 山姆 | 北京同仁堂有机黑果枸杞原浆 8. 海河乳品上新云顶藏金咸茶乳 9. 果子熟了无糖茶新品 7-11 上市 10. 盒马上新爆汁果粒双柚汁 11. 茉莉奶白开启 新年红 12. 爱羽乐正式官宣胡杏儿为品牌首位代言人 13. 统一推出「神采焕发 五黑芝麻乳」新品 ...... 一周新品 1. 神探伍伍 | 低升糖指数原切苹果脆 图片来源：AI生成 完整原切，低 GI 认证，清甜酥脆自然果香，科学工艺，锁住营养，优质红富士去皮去核，原切厚圈，更完整！ （ 食业头条 ） 2. 喜茶上线苹果小奶茉牛乳茶 近日， 喜茶上线苹果小奶茉牛乳茶。据品牌介绍，新品采用鲜牛乳（添加量 ≥ 12% ），添加了红富士苹果汁（添加量≥ 30g/L ）和茉莉 花茶（添加量≥ 8g/L ），不添加植脂末和速溶茶粉。其中，茉莉花茶是将来自云南、四川的烘青绿茶与大朵横州茉莉花反复窨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Hershey's 2025 financial performance shows a mixed result with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit [1] Group 2 - In 2025, Hershey achieved a revenue of $11.69 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.38% [1] - The net profit for 2025 was reported at $883 million, which reflects a substantial year-on-year decrease of 60.2% [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, Hershey's revenue reached $3.09 billion, marking a 7.0% increase compared to the same quarter the previous year [1] - The net profit for the fourth quarter was $320 million, showing a decline of 59.9% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of Moutai has ignited the entire liquor sector, with significant price movements and market reactions indicating a potential recovery in the industry after a prolonged adjustment period [1][2][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Market Performance - Moutai's stock price surged by 8.61% on January 29, marking the highest single-day increase since February 2025, and its market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price of Moutai has rebounded over 18% from its low, approaching a critical technical bull market position, which could influence the extent of its price increase and the nature of the rebound [4]. - The price of Moutai's 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai is psychologically anchored at 1499 yuan, and if the market price falls below this level, Moutai may implement strategies to stabilize prices [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is traditionally a peak consumption period for liquor, and the introduction of iMoutai has helped stabilize prices after a previous decline [1][4]. - There is a notable increase in demand for flying Moutai during the Spring Festival, but post-holiday, consumer purchasing behavior may revert to more rational levels, potentially affecting prices [4]. - The overall liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with first-tier brands like Moutai indicating a gradual exit from the adjustment phase, which could positively impact the pricing structure across the sector [7]. Group 3: Collectible Liquor Market - The collectible value of Moutai's zodiac-themed products is under scrutiny, with some experts advising caution regarding their investment potential, as past releases have shown significant price fluctuations [5]. - The market for zodiac-themed Moutai has seen substantial price adjustments, with the latest batch experiencing a drop from 2750 yuan to 2280 yuan per bottle [4][5]. - Comparatively, other collectible products, such as the zodiac water from Nongfu Spring, have demonstrated even higher premium rates, raising questions about Moutai's relative value in the collectible market [1]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The liquor industry has experienced multiple adjustment cycles since 1999, with the current cycle, which began in 2022, being notably prolonged, reflecting broader economic challenges and shifts in consumer demand [8][9]. - The recovery of the liquor sector is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, with expectations for a turning point in the industry by the second half of 2026 as inventory levels normalize [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market value of convertible bonds held by public funds remains at a high level, and the increase at the beginning of the year is in line with expectations. The convertible bond market shows strong resilience, and convertible bond funds perform relatively well among various types of funds. [1][9] - The bottom - position style is stable, and the heavily - held bonds of funds continue to perform well. However, there may be profit - taking in convertible bonds of popular sectors, and they may underperform the underlying stocks. [2] - In terms of convertible bond strategies, the overall position should be maintained with prudent neutrality, and the elastic allocation should be shifted towards balance. [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. How did institutional bonds perform after public funds increased their holdings at the beginning of the year? - The market value of convertible bonds held by public funds in Q4 2025 was 308.251 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. In January 2026, the scale of convertible bonds held by public funds increased by 6.88% compared with the end of 2025, accounting for 44.08%. [9] - In the first week of February, the convertible bond market showed strong anti - decline ability, rising 0.05% against the trend. Convertible bond funds outperformed ordinary stock - type funds and hybrid funds. The higher the proportion of convertible bonds in the fund, the stronger the anti - decline performance. [14] - Bonds heavily held by institutions showed stronger resilience in the first week of February. For example, convertible bonds of bottom - position types such as Industrial Bank and Shanghai Commercial Bank rose 0.72% on average, 0.67 percentage points higher than the convertible bond index. [18] - Convertible bonds of popular sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computers may have profit - taking, and they underperformed the underlying stocks to varying degrees. For example, Weice Convertible Bond and Dingjie Convertible Bond had significant callbacks. [20] II. Convertible Bond Strategy: Maintain a Prudent and Neutral Position, and Shift Elastic Allocation towards Balance - Affected by the nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman, the A - share market adjusted in the first half of the week and then recovered in the second half. Sectors with stable cash flows such as consumption, transportation, and banking showed compensatory growth. [25] - The average price of convertible bonds rose 0.65% to 139.63 yuan, and the 100 - yuan premium rate increased 1.83 percentage points to 38.94%. The overall position can be maintained with prudent neutrality, and the allocation focus should be adjusted in a timely manner, focusing on mid - stream manufacturing going global and consumer blue - chip stocks. [28] - New convertible bonds are relatively expensive, and non - trading funds should be cautious. Attention can be paid to near - maturity convertible bonds with strong conversion demands and the ability to promote conversion. The allocation strategy should shift from focusing on elasticity at the beginning of January to balanced allocation, with emphasis on convertible bonds priced between 130 - 150 yuan. [29] III. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuation Increased (1) Weekly Market Performance: The Convertible Bond Market Rose Slightly, and Most Equity Sectors Performed Weakly - Last week, most major stock indexes declined, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.05%. Small - cap stocks and convertible bonds showed better anti - decline performance. [35] - In terms of popular concepts, photovoltaic glass, space photovoltaic, and other concepts rose, while semiconductor - related concepts such as KIMI and MCU chips declined. [35] (2) Valuation Performance: The Premium Rates of Low - Rated and Small - Scale Convertible Bonds Rose Significantly - The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds changed by - 5.11%, - 0.67%, and + 1.69% respectively compared with the previous Friday. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range decreased significantly. [43] - The premium rates of low - rated and small - scale convertible bonds rose significantly. The AA - rated convertible bonds rose 2.87 percentage points, and those with a scale of 20 - 50 billion yuan (including 50 billion yuan) rose 1.65 percentage points. [43] IV. Terms and Supply: Five Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, and the Total Newly - Promoted Scale was Approximately 9.88 billion yuan (1) Terms: Five Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption Last Week, and Honglu Convertible Bond's Board of Directors Proposed a Downward Revision - As of February 6, Mengsheng, Feng 21, Rong 23, Xinzhi, and Shouhua Convertible Bonds announced early redemption; Daimei, Tairui, and other convertible bonds announced not to redeem early; Jiemei, Daimei, and other convertible bonds announced that they are expected to meet the early redemption conditions. [3][57] - Last week, Honglu Convertible Bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Meino and Hongchuan Convertible Bonds announced the results of the downward revision. Four convertible bonds announced not to revise downward, and five convertible bonds announced that they are expected to trigger a downward revision. [4][57] (2) Primary Market: Haitian Convertible Bond was Issued Last Week, and the Total Newly - Promoted Scale was Approximately 9.88 billion yuan - Haitian Convertible Bond was issued with a scale of 801 million yuan, and Shangtai Convertible Bond was listed with a scale of 1.734 billion yuan. There are 379 issued but not yet matured convertible bonds, with a balance of 530.884 billion yuan. [5][60] - There were no new board proposals last week. One company's convertible bond plan passed the general meeting of shareholders, three passed the approval of the issuance review committee, and there were no new approvals from the CSRC. Compared with the same period last year, the numbers were - 2, + 1, + 3, and - 3 respectively. [5][63] - As of February 6, seven listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 5.363 billion yuan. Four new companies passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 4.517 billion yuan, and there were no new board proposals. [68]

Timing Perspective - The three-dimensional timing framework has entered a cautious state, indicating a judgment of oscillating decline due to a downward trend in liquidity and an upward trend in divergence[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has repeatedly tested the demand line without breaking through, suggesting that while the upward trend remains, market volume is significantly shrinking[5] Sector Rotation - The communication equipment index saw a substantial inflow of 208% over the past week, while the oil and gas industry had a 630% inflow over the past month[27] - The ETF hot trend strategy has achieved a return of 54.82% since 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 33.27%[28] All-Weather Allocation - The high-volatility version of the all-weather strategy has an annualized return of 11.8% with a maximum drawdown of 3.6% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.3[59] - Since 2026, the high-volatility and low-volatility versions have returns of 2.3% and 0.9%, respectively[59] Factor Tracking - The market is currently characterized by a "high value, high leverage, high volatility" style, with the value factor achieving a positive return of 1.48% this week[61] - The liquidity shock factor has shown strong performance with a multi-head excess return of 1.56% over the past week[66] Risk Warning - Quantitative conclusions are based on historical statistics, and future market environment changes may lead to potential invalidation of these conclusions[69]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The content primarily focuses on market performance, style indices, valuation, and other financial metrics without detailing any quantitative models or factors[1][2][3]

每经记者：刘明涛每经编辑：肖芮冬 受国际金银价格巨震等因素影响，上周市场情绪明显降温，每经品牌100指数跟随A股三大股指出现回调，周跌幅达到2.84%。 每经媒资库 有市场分析称，在增量政策明确前，市场可能维持震荡行情。 超半数成分股上涨 上周A股探底后小幅回升，三大指数周K线均收跌。截至2月6日收盘，上证指数周跌1.27%，以4065.58点报收；深证成指周跌2.11%， 以13906.73点报收；创业板指和科创50指数回调较大，周跌幅分别达到3.28%和5.76%；每经品牌100指数缩量下跌，周跌幅为2.84%， 以1121.74点报收。 有券商机构指出，目前A股估值仍处于合理水平，叠加政策面持续发力、经济复苏基础逐步夯实，市场中长期向好趋势未变。 消费股整体表现不俗 从上周每经品牌100指数成分股表现来看，消费股整体表现不俗，海底捞、蒙牛乳业和贵州茅台的周涨幅均超过8%。其中，贵州茅台 周中总市值一度突破2万亿元，截至2月6日收盘，该公司总市值为1.9万亿元，逼近2万亿元大关。 2026年开年，贵州茅台进行了渠道与价格体系的双重调整。该公司于1月1日正式在"i茅台"平台上线500ml飞天茅台申购，直面终 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

Investment Outlook - The relative elasticity of investment is expected to be highest in 2026, with a projected rebound from a low base of -3.8% in 2025 to around 3% growth in 2026, potentially yielding an elasticity of 6-7 percentage points [3][4] - The Chinese government is focusing on effective investment to stabilize economic growth, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [28][29] - Guangdong province plans to increase its annual investment in key projects to 1.05 trillion yuan in 2026, up from 1 trillion yuan in 2025 and 2024 [2][3] Global Market Trends - Global stock markets are shifting towards "non-growth" assets, with a risk-off sentiment dominating pricing, leading to a focus on traditional economic sectors [5][6] - The U.S. stock market has shown significant differentiation, with defensive sectors like consumer staples and industrials leading, while technology stocks face pressure [5][6] - Commodity markets are experiencing high volatility, with gold and silver prices fluctuating significantly, while oil prices have also shown wide swings due to geopolitical factors [7][8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings dropping significantly, indicating a potential slowdown in economic momentum [14][15] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. is mixed, with current conditions improving slightly but future expectations declining due to concerns over inflation and job security [15][16] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its policy stance, indicating a period of observation without immediate changes to interest rates [12][13] Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is implementing measures to promote effective investment, including the use of central budget investments, special bonds, and policy financial tools [28][29] - Local governments are also adjusting their economic growth targets, with Guangdong aiming for a growth range of 4.5%-5% for 2026 [21][22] - Various provinces are introducing policies to stabilize the housing market, including purchasing second-hand homes for rental purposes and providing subsidies for homebuyers [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The global AI industry is entering a second phase, leading to a shift in the performance of the technology chain, making it complex to determine which companies will succeed [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of recovery in overseas manufacturing is strengthening, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of AI investment towards infrastructure represented by energy [1] - A quiet revaluation of global physical assets that cannot be disrupted by AI is beginning, with the return of funds from export enterprises signaling a resonance between domestic and external demand [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The revaluation logic of physical assets is shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and stabilizing demand, focusing on commodities such as crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, and rare earths [1] - The Chinese equipment export chain, which has a global comparative advantage and confirmed cyclical bottom, includes sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, and wafer manufacturing [1] - Domestic manufacturing sectors that are at the bottom of the cycle include petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide [1] - The consumption recovery channel is driven by the return of funds, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel entry, focusing on sectors like aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverages [1] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from the expansion of capital markets and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns [1]