专题策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱：yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：熊越 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524080001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：叶子沛 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340525070001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：yezipei@dgzq.com.cn 2026 年 1 月 22 日 春季行情有望延续，把握结构性机会 近期市场连续三万亿成交背后的逻辑思考 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明 ...

647家公司公布了全年业绩预告，业绩预增公司有209家，占比32.30%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至1月22日，已经有647家公司公布了2025年度业绩预告。业绩预告类型 显示，预增公司209家、预盈44家，合计报喜公司比例为39.10%；业绩预亏、预降公司分别有229家、 69家。 业绩预喜公司中，以预计净利润增幅中值统计，共有114家公司净利润增幅超100%；净利润增幅在 50%~100%之间的有106家。具体到个股看，回盛生物预计净利润增幅最高。公司预计全年实现净利润 增幅中值为1355.24%；南方精工、上海谊众预计全年净利润同比增幅中值分别为1273.50%、831.86%， 增幅位列第二、第三。 分行业看，业绩增幅预计翻倍股主要集中在基础化工、电子、机械设备等行业，分别有17只、14只、12 只个股上榜；所属板块来看，业绩预计翻倍股中，主板、创业板、科创板、北交所分别有65只、38只、 9只、2只。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，业绩预计翻倍股今年以来平均上涨12.92%，表现强于沪指。个股来看，今 年以来涨幅最大的是金海通，累计上涨93.22%；佰维存储、翔鹭钨业今年以来分别上涨65.83%、 ...

124家创业板公司2025年度业绩预告亮相，业绩预增公司有62家，占比50.00%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至1月22日，124家创业板公司公布了2025年业绩预告。按业绩预告类型 进行统计，预增公司有62家，预盈14家，合计报喜公司比例为61.29%；业绩预降、预亏、减亏公司分 别有14家、23家、8家。 创业板业绩预计暴增股名单 | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告日 | 预计净利润增幅中值 | 最新收盘价 | 今年以来涨跌 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期 | （%） | （元） | （%） | | | 300871 | 回盛生 | 2026.01.09 | 1355.24 | 29.54 | 42.50 | 农林牧 | | | 物 | | | | | 渔 | | 300435 | 中泰股 | 2026.01.06 | 677.22 | 30.65 | 37.94 | 公用事 | | | 份 | | | | | 业 | | 300048 | 合康新 | 2026.01.22 | 507.03 | 7.22 | 21.3 ...

证券之星消息，1月21日，生物经济（970038）指数报收于2249.37点，涨0.3%，成交272.77亿元，换手 率2.27%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有28家，迪安诊断以5.59%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有22家，康弘药 业以1.78%的跌幅领跌。 生物经济（970038）指数十大成份股详情如下： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000021 | 深科技 | 1.87亿 ﮯ | 3.06% | -9441.13万 | -1.55% | -9272.83万 | -1.52% | | 300142 | 沃森生物 | 6444.78万 | 8.62% | -3115.26万 | -4.16% | -3329.52万 | -4.45% | | 000930 | 中粮科技 | 5427.62万 | 9.84% | 491.65万 | 4 0.89% | -5919.27万 | -10.73% | | 002 ...

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" and focus on key areas to "strengthen" support, with a special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan for private investment[2] - A 500 billion yuan guarantee plan for private investment aims to guide banks in providing loans to small and micro enterprises[2] - The implementation of interest subsidies for loans in 14 key industrial chains is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.97%, with total trading volume at 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones down by 2.39%, 2.06%, and 1.76% respectively[3] - The 10-year government bond yield in China decreased by 1.66 basis points to 1.8260%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] - Gold prices rose above $4,762 per ounce, and silver prices peaked at $95 per ounce amid increased global risk aversion[2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors led gains with increases of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55% respectively[3] - The telecommunications, defense, and computer sectors saw declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94% respectively[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The secondary - market trends of industrial bond sub - industries show a divergence in the correlation between primary and secondary markets. This divergence may be due to differences in supply among industries and differences in bond liquidity and trading popularity within each industry. If an industry has many issuing entities with strong willingness and ability to issue bonds and is in a good development trend, the probability of a synchronous resonance relationship between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand is relatively high, which can improve the accuracy of judging trading signals of narrowing spreads from daily net financing [1][14]. - Most industries have trading signals transmitted from primary - market supply to secondary - market demand, including comprehensive, non - ferrous metals, and others. Some industries show a stronger negative correlation between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand, such as comprehensive and non - ferrous metals. Some industries have a weak correlation between daily net financing and daily spreads, including communication and food and beverage [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Bond Sub - industries Show Divergence in Primary - Secondary Market Trend Correlation - **Research Method**: Classify industrial bond issuers by Shenwan primary industries, calculate the daily net financing and daily credit spreads of each sub - industry from January 1, 2025, to December 19, 2025, to observe the correlation between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand [12]. - **Divergence Performance**: Most industries have trading signals transmitted from primary - market supply to secondary - market demand, while some do not show this feature significantly [13]. - **Reasons for Divergence**: Differences in supply among industries are related to the number, size, and life - cycle stage of issuing entities. Differences in bond liquidity and trading popularity within industries are related to the scale of outstanding bonds, valuation levels, and event catalysts [14]. 1.1. Industries with Obvious Correlation - **Comprehensive Industry**: From January to March 2025, daily net financing decreased and daily spreads increased; from March to June, daily net financing increased and daily spreads decreased; from June to December, both were in a low - level oscillation [21]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Industry**: From January to July 2025, daily net financing increased and daily spreads decreased; from July to September, daily net financing decreased and daily spreads increased; from October to December, both were in a low - level oscillation [25]. - **Other Industries**: Similar analysis is conducted for industries such as pharmaceutical biology, social services, and others, with different trends in different time intervals [27][30][32]. - **Common Features**: These industries generally have a large scale of outstanding bonds and high institutional investor attention, which is conducive to the transmission of primary - market supply changes to secondary - market spread changes [3][87]. 1.2. Industries with General Correlation - **Industries Included**: Communication, food and beverage, and other industries have a weak correlation between daily net financing and daily spreads, and the linkage and transmission between primary - and secondary - market indicators are relatively weak [4][13]. - **Reasons**: These industries have low participation in the bond market, and their secondary - market trading demand is more affected by overall bond - market trends, industry risk premiums, and liquidity premiums. Different types of industries have specific reasons for the weak correlation [4][90][91].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.73% as of 10:27 AM, with a trading volume of 783.95 million shares and a transaction value of 1,378.36 billion yuan, an increase of 0.13% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, oil and petrochemicals, and beauty care sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 0.86%, 0.72%, and 0.70% respectively [1] - The defense and military, comprehensive, and communication sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 3.41%, 3.19%, and 3.06% respectively [1][2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Chengdu Investment Holdings led with a gain of 10.11% [1] - In the oil and petrochemical sector, Blue Flame Holdings increased by 2.86% [1] - In the beauty care sector, Yanjiang Co. rose by 9.34% [1] Detailed Industry Data - Real Estate: 0.86% increase, transaction value of 189.40 billion yuan, up 20.93% from the previous day [1] - Oil and Petrochemicals: 0.72% increase, transaction value of 80.28 billion yuan, up 26.01% from the previous day [1] - Beauty Care: 0.70% increase, transaction value of 35.84 billion yuan, up 11.01% from the previous day [1] - Defense and Military: 3.41% decrease, transaction value of 883.06 million yuan, up 45.81% from the previous day [2] - Communication: 3.06% decrease, transaction value of 754.04 million yuan, up 0.40% from the previous day [2]

Group 1 - On January 19, a total of 14 companies were investigated by institutions, with 8 companies being surveyed by funds [1] - Shu Dao Equipment received the most attention, with 4 funds participating in the survey, while Mingyang Electric and Ruipu Biotech had 3 and 2 funds respectively [1] - Among the surveyed companies, there is 1 company from the main board, 6 from the ChiNext board, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the surveyed A-share companies includes 1 company with a market cap over 50 billion yuan and 5 companies with a market cap below 10 billion yuan, including Tianlu Technology and Shu Dao Equipment [1] - In terms of market performance, 6 of the surveyed stocks increased in the past 5 days, with the highest gains seen in Shiji Information (21.98%), Tianlu Technology (11.08%), and Mingyang Electric (6.95%) [1] - Conversely, 2 stocks experienced declines, with Longxin Technology and Shu Dao Equipment showing the largest drops of 9.72% and 4.68% respectively [1]

Core Insights - A total of 500 companies have released their performance forecasts for 2025, with 147 companies expecting profit increases, representing 29.40% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts (profit increases and profit warnings) stands at 34.80%, while 197 companies anticipate losses and 58 expect profit declines [1] - Among the companies forecasting profit increases, 77 expect a net profit growth of over 100%, and 64 expect growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance - The company with the highest expected net profit growth is Huisheng Biological, forecasting a median increase of 1355.24% [3] - Other notable companies include Zhongtai Co., expecting a 677.22% increase, and Nanguang Energy, with a forecast of 667.73% [3] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit growth this year is 11.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Jin Haitong has seen the largest stock price increase this year, with a rise of 73.83% [2] Industry Insights - Companies expecting profit growth are primarily concentrated in the basic chemical, electronics, and machinery equipment sectors, with 10, 10, and 8 companies respectively [1] - The main board has the highest number of companies forecasting profit increases, with 41 companies, followed by the ChiNext board with 26 companies, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with 8, and the Beijing Stock Exchange with 2 [1]

Core Insights - 86 companies listed on the ChiNext board have released their performance forecasts for 2025, with 43 companies expecting profit increases, representing 50.00% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies forecasting positive performance is 59.30%, with 8 companies expecting to turn a profit, while 11, 17, and 6 companies anticipate profit declines, losses, and reduced losses respectively [1] Performance Forecasts - Among the companies expecting profit increases, 26 anticipate a net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 9 expect growth between 50% and 100% [1] - The company with the highest expected net profit growth is Huisheng Biological, forecasting a median increase of 1355.24% for 2025 [1] - Other notable companies include Zhongtai Co., with a forecasted growth of 677.22%, and Changxin Bochuang, expecting a growth of 378.70% [1] Industry Analysis - The sectors with companies expecting significant profit increases include basic chemicals, telecommunications, and power equipment, with 5, 3, and 3 companies respectively [1] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit doubling this year is 11.31%, with Zhongtai Co., Huisheng Biological, and Wankai New Materials leading with increases of 36.36%, 35.84%, and 35.17% respectively [2] - Companies with the largest declines include Hongyuan Pharmaceutical, Shenghong Technology, and Hunan Yunen, with decreases of 9.16%, 4.21%, and 2.75% respectively [2]