Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark and trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [2] - The financial sector has led the market rally, supported by a surge in short-term capital chasing high-performing stocks as semi-annual earnings forecasts are released [2] - Institutions suggest that investors should shift from a trading strategy to a holding strategy in light of the market's transition from a stock-based to an incremental market [4][5] Group 2 - Positive factors for the A-share market continue to accumulate, with strong risk appetite reflected in trading behavior and capital flows [3] - The market is increasingly focusing on fundamental factors rather than external disturbances, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The strong upward trend in the A-share market is expected to continue, with significant conditions for a major rally accumulating [3] Group 3 - The market has seen a shift from net outflows to net inflows in actively managed public funds since June, marking a reversal in the trend of capital withdrawal [4] - Different sectors, including non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and gaming, have shown synchronized upward movement, indicating the presence of incremental capital across various funding entities [5] Group 4 - The performance of semi-annual earnings is crucial for trading strategies, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to perform well [6] - High-growth industries such as automotive parts, automation equipment, and consumer goods are recommended for investment, alongside sectors with improving performance like precious metals and pharmaceuticals [6] - Predictions indicate that industries such as light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials may experience high growth rates in their semi-annual earnings [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing macroeconomic adjustments aimed at addressing "involution" in corporate competition, emphasizing the need for quality improvement and orderly exit of outdated capacities [7][8][9] - The A-share market has shown resilience despite external uncertainties, with significant participation from retail investors and a focus on sectors like technology and finance [12][15][19] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization, with key milestones set for 2027 and 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory [35][36] Macro Economic Analysis - Recent macro policies focus on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition among enterprises, with an emphasis on enhancing product quality [7][8] - The construction and cement industries are implementing "anti-involution" measures, including production cuts to stabilize the market [8] - Consumer policies are being optimized to stimulate spending, with initiatives like tax refunds and subsidies to boost consumption [8] Market Strategy - The report identifies two main opportunities in the market: the resurgence of new stocks and thematic investments in deep-sea technology, which are expected to outperform in the current economic climate [13][19] - A suggested investment strategy includes a diversified approach focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [19] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with companies like Ningde Times and others making significant progress towards mass production [35][36] - The REITs market is showing strong performance, with environmental REITs leading the way, indicating a favorable investment environment for income-generating assets [39][41] - The non-bank financial sector is witnessing a positive outlook, particularly for brokerage firms, as they report better-than-expected mid-year results [44][45] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor industry, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as they are expected to recover from recent demand pressures [32][33] - In the semiconductor sector, companies involved in probe station equipment are highlighted for their growth potential, driven by increasing domestic demand and technological advancements [29][27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, which serves as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[7]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance process - \( \mu \): Drift rate of the asset price - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion of variance - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of volatility - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \)[7]. - **Model Evaluation**: The Heston model is widely used in financial markets for its ability to capture the stochastic nature of volatility, making it a robust tool for implied volatility estimation[7]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissor Difference) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the difference between the number of stocks with bullish and bearish signals within an industry. It is used to construct an industry timing strategy[15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of stocks with bullish signals as \( N_{bullish} \) and bearish signals as \( N_{bearish} \). - Compute the scissor difference as: $ \text{Scissor Difference} = N_{bullish} - N_{bearish} $ - Normalize the scissor difference by the total number of stocks in the industry to obtain the scissor difference ratio: $ \text{Scissor Difference Ratio} = \frac{N_{bullish} - N_{bearish}}{N_{total}} $ - Use this ratio to construct an industry timing strategy[15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that the timing model outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance[15]. --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 14.41% (+2.91% WoW)[9] - SSE 500: 15.4% (+0.83% WoW)[9] - CSI 1000: 18.09% (+1.24% WoW)[9] - CSI 300: 14.48% (+3.15% WoW)[9] 2. Multi-Industry Timing Factor - **Performance Metrics**: - The timing model outperformed the respective industry indices in all cases, with a 100% success rate in backtesting[15]. - Specific industries with bullish signals include retail, light manufacturing, home appliances, and others[18].

虽然政策"反内卷"方向明确，但不同行业的命运正走向分岔路。7月12日，华泰证券报告显示，不同行业"反内卷"成效将显著分化，光伏电池等亏 损严重行业短期筑底机会明确；钢铁煤炭等国企主导行业期待更高层级的统一指导；而家电机械等民企占比高的行业，产能前景还有待观察。 华泰证券预计光伏、电池等行业企业配合意愿高，有望形成短期的价格底，但是否反复取决于企业能否持续配合、兼并重组等能否顺 利推进；钢铁、煤炭、汽车整车等行业期待更高层级的统一指导，弹性更多在于需求端；家电、机械等行业民企占比较高、利润尚有 坚持余地，产能前景还有待观察。 亏损越严重越愿意"反内卷"：比如电池、光伏行业 亏损越严重越愿配合、国企主导行业响应最快、民企密集领域前景待察——华泰证券五维指标揭示"反内卷"政策下的行业生存法则，分别是企业 所有制结构、行业集中度、利润状况、成本曲线、需求前景。 反内卷——今年最热词汇之一，也正在成为当前政策的重要方向。 在企业所有制结构方面，华泰证券认为，国企占比越高的行业，越具备政策协调的优势，在控能耗、淘汰落后产能、减产、收储基金、兼并收购 等各方面的配合度均更高。截至2024年，煤炭行业国企占比高达84%，钢铁 ...

Economic Growth Overview - Cameroon’s GDP growth for Q4 2024 is projected at 1.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from 2.2% in the same period of 2023 [1] - The slowdown in economic growth is primarily attributed to the decline in the secondary sector, which shrank from 1.1% to -0.7% during the same period [1] Sector Performance - The mining and extraction sector experienced a significant contraction of 19.2%, contributing to the overall decline in the secondary sector [1] - The extraction industry has been in recession since Q2 2023, facing challenges from aging oil fields and international price fluctuations [1] Revenue Adjustments - The government has revised its expected revenue for 2025 from an initial budget of 734.8 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.225 billion) down to 641.5 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.069 billion), reflecting a reduction of 93.3 billion CFA francs (12.7% decrease) [1] Resilience in Other Sectors - The tertiary sector showed strong performance with a growth rate of 4.4%, while the primary sector grew by 3% [2] - Growth in the tertiary sector is driven by robust development in financial and administrative services, while the primary sector benefits from strong outputs in food crops, export agricultural products, fisheries, and livestock [2] Structural Limitations - The weakness in the secondary sector highlights the structural limitations of Cameroon’s economy, which remains heavily reliant on the export of primary raw materials and lacks local deep processing capabilities [2]

证券研究报告|金融工程专题报告 使用投资雷达把握行业轮动机会 张立宁 SAC NO：S1120520070006 杨国平 SAC NO：S1120520070002 2025年7月11日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 刻画行业走势状态 目录 2 走势状态与未来涨幅 3 建立位置参数表 4 行业轮动组合效果 2 1 刻画行业走势状态 3 研究目标 (1) 根据价格与成交金额的变化方向，得到4种状态：放量上涨、放量下跌、缩量下跌、 缩量上涨。 (2) 对于每种状态，计算价格、成交金额涨跌幅度，以及两者涨跌幅度的相对比例。从 而对行业走势状态实现更准确的定位。 • 我们根据走势状态将行业坐标位置绘制在极坐标系上，可视化效果与雷达相似，可以帮 助及时把握投资机会：当行业运行至坐标系的特定区域时，意味着投资机会的出现。因 此将此行业轮动方法称为行业投资雷达。 4 $$\rho={\sqrt{(x-y)^{T}\cdot\Sigma^{-1}\cdot(x-y)}}$$ • 极坐标系中的极角即过原点和散点的连线与0°线形成的夹角，极角可以根据成交变化 幅度、价格变化幅度之间的比例关系，由反正切函数计算： • ...

Core Insights - 26 companies listed on the ChiNext board have released their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 19 companies expecting profit increases, representing 73.08% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts is 80.77%, with 2 companies expecting profits and 1 company forecasting losses [1] Performance Forecast Summary - Among the companies with positive forecasts, 7 are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 4 companies anticipate growth between 50% and 100% [1] - Han Yu Pharmaceutical is projected to have the highest net profit growth, with a median increase of 1567.36% [1] - Other notable companies include Chuanjin Nuo and Longyuan Technology, with expected net profit growth of 167.27% and 137.44% respectively [1] Company Performance Highlights - The following companies are highlighted for their significant expected profit increases: - Han Yu Pharmaceutical (Code: 300199) - Expected net profit growth: 1567.36%, Latest closing price: 18.24, Year-to-date change: 41.51%, Industry: Pharmaceutical [1] - Chuanjin Nuo (Code: 300505) - Expected net profit growth: 167.27%, Latest closing price: 19.95, Year-to-date change: 40.94%, Industry: Basic Chemicals [1] - Longyuan Technology (Code: 300105) - Expected net profit growth: 137.44%, Latest closing price: 8.11, Year-to-date change: 7.79%, Industry: Environmental Protection [1] - Other companies with notable growth include Chenguang Biotech, Feirongda, Boteng Co., and Huizhong Co. [1]

Group 1 - As of July 10, 2025, 187 A-share listed companies have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 139 companies expecting profit increases, accounting for 74.33% [2] - The sectors showing significant growth include power, semiconductors, wind power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Notably, 67 companies anticipate a net profit growth of over 100%, with 20 companies expecting over 300% growth, and 7 companies projecting over 1000% growth [3] Group 2 - The top performer, Huayin Power, forecasts a profit increase of up to 4423%, while other notable companies like First Technology and Tianbao Infrastructure expect increases of 2835% and 2329%, respectively [3] - A total of 38 companies are expected to report net profits exceeding 5 billion yuan, with Industrial Fulian leading at an estimated 12.158 billion yuan [4] - The significant profit growth for Huayin Power is attributed to increased power generation and decreased fuel costs [5] Group 3 - A-share profitability is stabilizing, with a reported net profit growth of 3.63% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery from a previous decline [6] - Analysts suggest that improving performance expectations can stabilize market sentiment and reduce short-term volatility, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [6] - The ongoing development of the AI industry and high demand in electronics and communications sectors are expected to maintain positive growth trends [6]