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国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数下跌 纯碱跌1.3%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-05 15:27
Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority decline in night trading on February 5, with non-metal building materials leading the drop, specifically PVC down by 1.90% [1] - The black series commodities all experienced declines, with coking coal falling by 1.78% [1] - Most chemical products also decreased, with soda ash down by 1.32% [1] Group 2 - Energy products showed gains, with fuel oil increasing by 0.64% [1] - Agricultural products mostly rose, with corn starch up by 0.44% [1] - Oilseeds and oils also saw increases, with soybean meal rising by 0.18% [1]
【风口研报】这个稀缺金属资源可用于钙钛矿电池添加,提升稳定性及相关性能,受益于太空光伏等场景未来5年需求复合增速高达94%
财联社· 2026-02-05 13:26
①这个稀缺金属资源可用于钙钛矿电池添加,提升稳定性及相关性能,受益于太空光伏等场景未来5年需 求复合增速高达94%,已有两家上市公司提前布局;②PX、乙二醇核心化工品开工率回暖,这家公司具 备稀缺仓储资源、建立全球服务网络,布局分销业务打造"超级化工亚马逊"。 财联社倾力打造王牌栏目《风口研报》,替您"扒一扒"市场含金量超高的研报、调研信息。以机构视 角,追踪研报和调研纪要细节里的"超预期"、"拐点"、"事件催化"和"价值洼地"。 前言 ...
中原期货晨会纪要-20260205
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 03:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market shows a mixed trend, with the spring market still likely to continue, but the market performance may not be smooth. Before the Spring Festival, the market may be volatile, and investors are advised to adopt a more conservative style and focus on high-dividend sectors [27]. - The commodity market has different trends. Precious metals generally rise, while base metals show mixed performance. The energy market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and oil prices rise [10][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - China's President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and the need for the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [7]. - Market rumors that Musk's team visited Chinese photovoltaic companies led to a surge in A-share photovoltaic concept stocks. However, some companies announced that they had not carried out any cooperation with the relevant team, and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association pointed out that space photovoltaic technology is still in the early exploration stage [7]. - Google's parent company Alphabet's Q4 2025 revenue exceeded expectations, and its 2026 capital expenditure is expected to be much higher than investors' expectations [8]. - The A-share market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. The coal and photovoltaic sectors saw a wave of daily limit increases, while the semiconductor, computing hardware, and AI application sectors were sluggish [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to strengthen the technological supply of future industries and promote breakthroughs in fields such as 6G, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and embodied intelligence [8]. - The number of newly opened margin trading accounts in the market in January increased significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year [9]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non-US currencies fell. The offshore RMB against the US dollar fell [9]. - China's first domestically developed 12-inch silicon carbide ingot thinning equipment and substrate thinning equipment were successfully delivered, marking a new breakthrough in the field of large-size silicon carbide processing [9]. - The Federal Reserve announced that it will not adjust the capital levels of large banks in the 2026 stress test cycle and is considering reforms to improve transparency [9]. - The US stock market closed mixed. The Dow rose, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell. The labor market data showed that the number of private sector employment in the US in January was far lower than expected [10]. - The domestic commodity futures market mostly rose, with precious metals leading the gains. The international precious metals futures market also generally rose [10][11]. - The London base metals market mostly fell [11]. - The European stock market closed mixed. The French stock market rose due to the rebound of the luxury goods sector and the stability of the European Central Bank's interest rate; the British stock market was boosted by the strengthening of the pound; the German stock market fell due to the difficulties in the auto parts industry and geopolitical concerns [11]. - Iran's Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the talks with the US in Oman, and the meeting is scheduled to be held on February 6 [12]. - The yields of treasury bonds in the interbank market showed mixed trends, and the treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and the interbank market liquidity returned to a stable and loose state [12]. - The prices of US and Brent crude oil futures rose due to concerns about the risk of military conflict and the unexpected decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory [12]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price of the sugar futures main contract continued to rebound. Although the supply pressure remains, the rebound of international sugar prices and the tightening of domestic import policies have alleviated some downward pressure. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock repair in the short term [14]. - **Corn**: The price of the corn futures main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the pre - holiday selling pressure continued to be realized, putting pressure on the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support at 2250 yuan/ton [14]. - **Peanuts**: The price of the peanut futures main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the supply and demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern in the short term [14]. - **Pigs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is expected to remain volatile before the festival [14][16]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs dropped significantly, and the futures market reflected the decline in spot prices and the expectation of post - festival decline, maintaining a volatile trend [16]. - **Red Dates**: The price of red dates is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [16]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is expected to decrease, and the demand is resilient. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - shock idea and consider going long at the lower edge of the interval [16]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a state of high supply and high inventory, and the fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is expected to shrink, and the downstream demand is also weak. It is expected to show a weak - shock trend in the short term [16]. - **Logs**: The price of log futures continued to be strong, but there is a risk of a decline in demand before the festival. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp continues, and the demand support is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stand firm at the spot price level [18]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price may be restricted if there is no substantial improvement in demand [18]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily output is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The UR2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [18][20]. 2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The price of copper is boosted by the proposed key mineral strategic reserve plan and the easing of market uncertainties. The supply of aluminum is increasing, and the demand shows signs of stabilization, but the structural contradiction has not been eliminated. Both are expected to continue to run at a high level [22]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [23]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market of rebar and hot - rolled coil is inactive, and the demand is limited. The steel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [23]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys changed little this week. The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are relatively healthy. The short - term trend is expected to be callback - biased and long, and the impact of the macro environment should be noted [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is under pressure. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [25]. 2.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock index options changed. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - straddle positions to short volatility [25]. - **Stock Index**: The stock market may be volatile before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to focus on high - dividend sectors and adopt a more conservative investment style. The spring market is still likely to continue in February after short - term adjustment [27].
EG价格低位区间,短期缺乏驱动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 03:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The EG price is in a low - range, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. The overall fundamentals of EG are still weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. The strategy suggests being cautiously bullish when the price drops to the low - range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3788 yuan/ton (a change of + 21 yuan/ton or + 0.56% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3682 yuan/ton (a change of + 25 yuan/ton or + 0.68% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis of EG was - 105 yuan/ton (a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 908 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rates - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, with weakening rigid demand support [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 89.7 tons (an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 13.6 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons. The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]
PTA:1季度季节性累库预期下 驱动有限 PTA高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-02-05 02:09
Spot Market - On February 4, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with a subdued trading atmosphere in the spot market and a strong spot basis. The trading range for prices was between 5080 and 5190, with some transactions occurring at -68 and 60 basis points for the 05 contract [1] Profitability - As of February 4, the PTA spot processing fee was around 405 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 contracts were 489 yuan/ton and 439 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 29, PTA operating rates remained stable at 76.6% - Demand: By January 30, with the approach of the Spring Festival, polyester production cuts increased, leading to a decline in overall load to 84.2% (a decrease of 2%). On February 4, the price of polyester yarn saw a local decline, and overall sales were weak. Despite a rebound in gold, silver, and stock markets, the macro atmosphere improved, and raw material prices slightly increased, factories were promoting sales, but the results were unsatisfactory. High yarn prices and the gradual holiday schedule for downstream sectors significantly affected stocking sentiment. Future attention will be on raw material price trends and factory maintenance plans for the Spring Festival [3] Market Outlook - After the release of cost-side risks, the chemical sector has seen some recovery from low levels. The trading atmosphere in the downstream has improved, and the PTA basis has strengthened. In February, there are no new maintenance plans for PTA, while demand is expected to decline around the Spring Festival, leading to a low point in polyester operating rates for the year and a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA, with expectations of significant inventory accumulation. Before the Spring Festival, PTA's self-driven demand is weak, but in the second quarter, a tighter supply-demand balance is anticipated, providing some support for low prices. The strategy suggests that TA05 will oscillate between 5100 and 5400 in the short term, with a rolling low-long operation; TA5-9 is expected to be in a low-position spread [4]
每日核心期货品种分析-20260204
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 11:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On February 4, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals such as silver, gold, and copper showed significant increases, while some agricultural products and bonds declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand and market factors affecting their prices. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, production policies, and seasonal demand changes [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - **Futures Market Overview**: As of February 4, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals like silver, gold, platinum, and palladium had substantial gains, while some agricultural products like rapeseed meal and rapeseed declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, and bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts such as silver 2604 and gold 2604, and flowed out of contracts such as CSI 2603 [7][8]. Market Analysis - **Copper (SHFE)**: Copper prices continued to rise due to news of improving the copper resource reserve system and the rebound of external precious metals. In January, the production of electrolytic copper increased year - on - year, and it is expected to decrease slightly in February. The demand was affected by high prices in January, but the long - term outlook for copper is positive [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate showed a narrow increase. The production rate was high, but the monthly output decreased. Some lithium mines were shut down for rectification, and the inventory continued to decline. The downstream demand was strong, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ members will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although the demand is in the off - season, the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global economy growth forecast was raised, and the demand concern was alleviated, but the supply is still in an oversupply situation [14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate and shipment volume decreased, and the inventory rate remained low. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil was restricted, which affected production and cost. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and fluctuate, and it is recommended to take reverse arbitrage [16]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate was at a medium - low level, and the inventory was at a low level in recent years. Due to the unstable geopolitical situation and the rebound of crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [18]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate of plastic decreased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [19]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate of PVC increased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export orders increased, but the social inventory was still high. It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the policy and market sentiment [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal rose. The production and import decreased marginally, and the inventory of mines decreased. The downstream winter storage was in the final stage, and the next round of coke price increase is expected to be difficult [24]. - **Urea**: The price of urea turned red at the end of the day. The production was higher than the same period in previous years, and the upstream factory's order - attracting pressure increased. The inventory decreased before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be weakly stable before the festival [25].
关注周五美伊核谈时间节点,维持高空思路
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 10:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Maintain a high - short strategy for crude oil based on the supply - demand surplus and potential cooling of geopolitical risks, with Friday's US - Iran nuclear talks being a key event driver [1][3] - The chemical sector declined due to the cooling of macro - sentiment and the crude oil limit - down. Pay attention to the high - short opportunities after the rebound of methanol, ethylene glycol, styrene, pure benzene, and rubber [1] Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitical risks in Iran flared up slightly overnight, causing a large rebound in crude oil. However, the US - Iran negotiation is ongoing, and the situation remains uncertain. With a supply - demand surplus and potential cooling of geopolitical risks, the price may follow the trend after the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015. The sharp decline and limit - down the day before signaled the end of the rebound [1][3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term pressure is at the 485 level. Use SC04P440 call options to trade the opportunity of the US - Iran nuclear talks [3] (2) Styrene - Logic: The sharp decline in the cost of crude oil, the cooling of macro - sentiment, and the weakening of its own fundamentals led to a significant reduction in positions at a high price, signaling a short - term peak. There are strong expectations of increased supply and negative feedback from the demand side [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with a reduction in positions today, testing the short - term pressure at the 7775 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7780 - 7800 [8] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space is weaker than that of styrene, mainly driven by the profit expansion of styrene and potential tariff cuts on South Korean pure benzene imports. In the medium - term, overseas demand is weak. After the cooling of macro - sentiment, there was a large reduction in positions at a high price, signaling a peak [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with a reduction in positions today, testing the short - term pressure at the 6270 level. Wait and see after the stop - loss of yesterday's short positions in the hourly cycle [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: The inventory in Qingdao is still high, and the demand for tires is expected to be weak. After the passive rise, the supply is expected to increase after the March tapping season. There is a lack of upward drivers, and it declined following the macro - cooling [12] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Consider today's movement as a rebound, with the short - term pressure at the 16410 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 16410 [12] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Although the raw material butadiene is still strong, the macro - sentiment cooled, and the cost of crude oil is expected to decline. The driving force is bearish [16] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. There was an increase in price with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term support is at the 12800 level. Wait and see for right - side entry in the hourly cycle [16] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong before the new capacity comes on stream in the third quarter, but there has been pre - trading in December. In the short - term, the driving force is bearish due to the cooling of macro - sentiment and the decline in crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Consider today's movement as a rebound with a reduction in positions, still within the 7050 - 7500 wide - range interval. Wait and see at the hourly level [20] (7) PTA - Logic: In the off - season, demand is weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation. The short - term driving force is bearish due to macro - cooling and the decline in crude oil [23] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Consider today's movement as a rebound with a reduction in positions, with the short - term pressure at the 5295 level. Wait and see after the stop - loss of yesterday's short positions in the hourly cycle [23] (8) PP - Logic: With the cooling of geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment, olefins weakened. The demand is in a seasonal weak period, and there is high - pressure from supply. The medium - term driving force is bearish. There was a large reduction in positions at a high price today, signaling a peak [25] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. There was a rebound with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term support is at the 6650 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [25] (9) Methanol - Logic: The demand side has negative feedback expectations, and the fundamentals are weak under high inventory. The geopolitical premium has dissipated, and the short - term driving force is bearish [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term and short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with a reduction in positions today, with the short - term pressure at the 2345 level. Pay attention to high - short signals after the rebound in the hourly cycle [28] (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, high - level supply, and negative feedback from demand. The short - term driving force is bearish due to macro - cooling and geopolitical cooling [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a small rebound today, with the short - term pressure at the 3950 level. Pay attention to high - short signals after the rebound in the hourly cycle, and there is an opportunity to enter short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 3810 [31] (11) Plastic - Logic: With the cooling of geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment, olefins weakened. The demand is in a seasonal weak period, and there is high - pressure from supply. The medium - term driving force is bearish. There was a large reduction in positions at a high price today, signaling a peak [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an upward structure. There was intraday oscillation today, and the short - term support is at the 6830 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [32] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash remain in a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The far - month premium is expected to decline gradually, and maintain a high - short strategy for the 05 contract [34] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was an increase in price with an increase in positions today, testing the pressure in the 1215 - 1225 interval. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 1225 [34] (13) PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. However, the new policy brings expectations of rising electricity prices, providing short - term support [38] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level are in an upward structure. There was an increase in price with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 5000 level. Hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 5000 [38]
苯乙烯港口库存仍等待进一步回建
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 07:28
纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-04 苯乙烯港口库存仍等待进一步回建 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 苯乙烯方面:苯乙烯主力基差119元/吨(-118元/吨);苯乙烯非一体化生产利润552元/吨(+50元/吨),预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存108600吨(+8000吨),苯乙烯华东商业库存60800吨(-1500吨),处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率69.3%(-0.4%)。 下游硬胶方面:EPS生产利润198元/吨(-254元/吨),PS生产利润-352元/吨(-134元/吨),ABS生产利润-896元/吨 (-73元/吨)。EPS开工率53.26%(-5.45%),PS开工率55.60%(-1.70%),ABS开工率66.10%(-0.70%)。 市场分析 商品有所止跌反弹,能化板块亦有所触底反弹,其中苯乙烯港口库存仍偏低,较回调低点反弹幅度尚可。 纯苯港口库存本周初小幅回落,虽然下游提货量偏低,但到港亦节奏性放缓。下游开工,苯乙烯开工逐步见底回 升,CPL开工进一步走低,苯胺、苯酚、己二酸开工维持高位。而国内纯苯开工仍偏低;而海外供应方面,美国有 可能对韩国关税提高,关注后续动向,或导致韩国纯苯发往中国压力 ...
现货表现仍坚挺,关注下游需求跟进情况
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 07:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot performance of propylene remains strong, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand. The supply increment of propylene is still limited due to the ongoing maintenance of some PDH plants and the slow load - increase of restarted plants. Downstream demand is supported by rigid demand, but high propylene prices may compress downstream profits and limit demand follow - up. The cost support for propylene is gradually weakening, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost of crude oil and propane and the maintenance of major PDH plants. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6,229 yuan/ton (+107). The East China spot price of propylene is 6,490 yuan/ton (-50), and the North China spot price is 6,420 yuan/ton (+30). The East China basis of propylene is 261 yuan/ton (-157), and the Shandong basis is 191 yuan/ton (-77). The 03 - 04 contract spread and PL03 - 05 contract spread are also mentioned in the report [1][6][8] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 70% (-1%). The difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 254 US dollars/ton (+15). The production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking methods, as well as the corresponding capacity utilization rates, are presented. The import profit of propylene is - 389 yuan/ton (+5) [1][21][24] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-90). Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates and production profits of n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are also provided [1][37][38] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810), and the PP powder in - plant inventory is also included in the report [1][63]
化工日报:节前需求偏弱,EG弱势运行-20260204
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 07:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EG market is weak before the holiday. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol (EG) remains high, with limited reduction in syngas production load. There is significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas supply is expected to ease in mid - to late February. Demand has weakened as the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been implemented since mid - January, leading to a decline in weaving and polyester loads. Overall, the EG fundamentals are weak, with high inventory accumulation pressure from January to February and potential improvement in March [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, 0.00% change). The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3657 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, -1.48% change). The spot basis of EG in East China was -100 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was -62 US dollars/ton (down 11 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was -853 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, resulting in an accelerated decline in weaving and polyester loads, and the support from rigid demand has weakened [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 89.7 tons (up 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports in East China last week was 13.6 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports was 2.8 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 12.3 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1] Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the atmosphere in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has fallen back to the previous low - level range. It is advisable to observe market dynamics. - Inter - period: Not recommended - Inter - variety: Not recommended [3]