1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

化工日报 | 2025-09-12 新装置提前投产，市场心态承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4302元/吨（较前一交易日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.39%），EG华东市场现货价 4422元/吨（较前一交易日变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.41%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）106元/吨（环比-11元/ 吨）。隆众资讯9月11日报道：山东一套90万吨/年的乙二醇新装置昨日开始前端投料试车，目前进展顺利，后期关 注工厂出料进展。新装置提前投产，市场心态承压。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-61美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-69元/吨（环比+1 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为45.9万吨（环比+1.0万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为36.3万吨（环比-1.3万吨）。本周华东主港计划到港总数9.3万吨，到港量中性。截 至9月11日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量36.32万吨，较周一降低2.36万吨；较上周四降低1.31万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇负 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed's meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs after continuous rises [3]. - Various metals, energy products, chemical products, and agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including trends such as price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts of policies and events [2][3][4] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. The IEA's September report shows an increase in the supply - demand surplus, with pressure concentrated in Q4 and Q1 next year. The trading logic is between surplus pressure and geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU仓单 net decreased by 6800 tons in two trading days this week, and FU is stronger than LU due to geopolitical premium [20]. - **Asphalt**: Night - session oil prices dropped, and asphalt followed with a limited decline. Warehouse receipts decreased on Thursday. September's first - week shipments slowed, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Factory inventories increased while social inventories decreased, and overall inventory is flat. Long positions set at the beginning of the week were closed with profits [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased, strengthening the support of import costs. Terminal product prices are rising, and the high -开工 rate pattern can be maintained. The spot has stronger support, but the futures price is limited by high - volume warehouse receipts and will run in a range [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: US CPI data in August met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a 4 - year high, verifying weak employment. The market has fully priced in three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year. Precious metals may remain strong before the meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Night - session copper prices continued to rise. US CPI increased, and the labor market showed signs of slowing, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut and weakening the dollar. The spot copper price in China was 80175 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was 85 yuan. The inventory of the Steel Union increased by 900 tons to 149,000 tons. There is limited short - term upward space for Shanghai copper, and attention should be paid to the premium of call options with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2520 contract [4]. - **Aluminum**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly and reached the 21,000 - yuan mark. Downstream construction started to pick up seasonally, and the production of aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to remain low this year, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6 million tons on Tuesday. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to test the 21,000 - yuan resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed Shanghai aluminum and oscillated strongly. The Baotai spot price was stable at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. The cross - variety price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum has room to narrow further [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to over 130,000 tons. Supply surplus is evident, and spot prices are dropping rapidly. The industry profit still has room to be compressed, and the support level is around 2830 yuan, the low in June [7]. - **Zinc**: The US PPI increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Coupled with low LME zinc inventory, the external market is in a rebound trend, driving the domestic market. The import ore price ratio is not good, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ore. The domestic ore TC decreased instead of increasing, which also supports the price in the short term. The CZSPT issued a guidance price range of 120 - 140 dollars/ton for imported zinc concentrate TC by the end of Q4. The growth space of imported ore TC this year is limited. Short - term Shanghai zinc is strongly supported at 22,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation of "supply increase and demand weakness" remains unchanged, and the market is observing the performance of the consumption peak season [8]. - **Lead**: The increase in refinery maintenance led to a decrease in SMM lead social inventory, and short - position holders reduced their positions at low levels. Consumption is still weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The domestic situation is stronger than the overseas situation, and the expectation of overseas low - price lead inflow restricts the rebound space of Shanghai lead. The supply of scrap batteries is in short supply, and the cost of recycled lead has strong support. The supply - demand is weak, and the market lacks contradictions, so it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Tin**: Night - session tin prices rose. This week, it held the key support level. Overseas, the LME tin inventory is increasing, but the concentration of positions is still high. In China, the social inventory is awaited. The current tin price is 271,100 yuan, with a premium of 850 yuan for the delivery month. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 daily line [10]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The main contract slightly reduced positions and closed up at 53,700 yuan/ton. The market trading enthusiasm declined marginally. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital games. The spot price is basically stable, and the prices of batteries and components are rising. The effectiveness of cost transfer needs to be verified. Some regions have completed energy - saving inspections of the polysilicon industry, and there is a lack of incremental policy guidance. The market is under significant upward pressure and will maintain a volatile pattern [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract reduced positions and closed up above 8700 yuan/ton. There is an increasing expectation of eliminating high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity, but the actual effect remains to be seen. In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%, and the production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The decline in downstream demand is limited according to current inventory changes. Short - term industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [12]. - **Other Chemicals** - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated narrowly. Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and social inventory is at a new high. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the supply pressure is large. The cost support is not obvious. The futures price may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated during the day. The industry inventory decreased again, and the spot performance is differentiated. The price is relatively firm, but there is still supply pressure in the future, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - session prices were dragged down by the decline in oil prices. The short - process efficiency of PX is good, but there is a lack of new production capacity. The production growth space is limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of existing plants. PTA is continuously de - stocking, but the processing margin and basis are weakening. The price driver is still the raw material, and recent plant maintenance has increased. Terminal weaving orders are increasing, and demand is improving. Consider the possibility of the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil rising before the National Day [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to be weak. The trial operation of new plants put pressure on the near - term contract, and the monthly spread declined. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected weekly arrival volume increased slightly. The port inventory is low, and the basis is still strong. Attention should be paid to the trial operation of the two new plants [30]. Building Materials - **Steel Products (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices oscillated weakly. This week, the apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered significantly, production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to an increase in hot - metal production, but the low profit per ton restricted further resumption. The market still faces potential negative feedback pressure. The downstream real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is pessimistic, and the futures price has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Night - session iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment decreased, the domestic arrival volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory stabilized and increased. There is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, and steel mills' profitability is at a low level. Hot - metal production returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand. Steel mills have a demand for pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the next two weeks. Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the overseas Fed rate - cut expectation is rising. The market speculative sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. Coking profit is acceptable, and daily coking production decreased slightly. The overall coke inventory is rising, and the purchasing意愿 of traders has decreased. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. Hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. The production of coking coal mines increased month - on - month. The spot auction transaction weakened slightly, and the transaction price followed the futures price down. The terminal inventory decreased slightly. The total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to increase slightly. The previous shutdowns are gradually resuming. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [16]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: As of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 16% the previous week. US soybeans rose slightly yesterday. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern, and the domestic soybean meal spot is slightly weak. Brazil's soybean premium is high, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. With Argentine soybean meal, the supply in Q4 is generally stable. However, if Sino - US trade negotiations are not resolved by the end of the year, there may be a shortage of domestic soybean supply in Q1 next year. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and the strategy is to go long at low levels. The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on September 13, and the market expects a reduction in soybean yield per unit [35]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded after a short - term correction. The US soybean oil futures also rebounded after trading on the bearish bio - fuel policy expectation. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report this week, expecting a reduction in US soybean yield per unit, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices rebounded after reducing positions. The domestic situation is weak. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, the biodiesel policies of Indonesia and the US support the industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees is prominent. It is advisable to go long at low levels [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of North American oilseeds is under pressure due to the expected tight import of oilseeds in China. The port price of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 5% this week, driving down the price of Australian rapeseed by 2%. Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade negotiations are the main factors affecting the supply - demand and price of rapeseed products. The domestic rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is at a slightly high level, which is not conducive to the short - term demand for rapeseed oil. Rapeseed meal demand is mainly for rigid needs. The futures price may rise slightly in the short - term oscillation [37]. - **Corn**: Night - session corn futures continued to oscillate narrowly. The spot supply in Shandong is abundant, and the purchase price decreased. The Northeast corn spot is strong, and the opening price of new - season corn is higher than last year. The结转 inventory at the northern port is the lowest in recent years. Traders have high expectations for the new - season corn. Cofco will conduct an auction of imported corn today, about 190,000 tons. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before the new - grain opening, and the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom after the enthusiasm for new - grain purchase fades [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures price oscillated weakly during the day, and the spot price stabilized. The price difference between fat and lean pigs is inverted in many provinces, which may accelerate the slaughter of large pigs. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. The tightening of transportation policies has increased the downward pressure on pig prices in traditional pig - exporting provinces. The agricultural and rural affairs department will hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation next Tuesday. The current main - contract futures price has dropped close to the level at the beginning of the "anti - involution", so it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Egg**: The egg futures oscillated and slightly reduced positions, and the spot price continued to rise. It is still in the seasonal rebound window of the spot market. The industry still has a high - inventory problem, and the capacity needs to be further reduced. The number of newly - hatched chickens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in Q4 this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, it is advisable to consider long positions, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [41]. Others - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose significantly with heavy trading volume yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the previous high, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 5% to regain 3000 points. All the main contracts of stock - index futures closed up, with IC leading the rise by more than 3%. Only the IM contract is still slightly at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose collectively, and US bond yields declined at the long end, while the US dollar index closed down. The US CPI data in August basically met expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations are at a critical stage, and attention should be paid to the possible linkage with Sino - EU and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. It is advisable to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures continued to adjust. Affected by the expected implementation of the third - stage fee reform of public funds, the market redemption pressure increased significantly, and the attractiveness of bond funds decreased. The bond market fluctuated greatly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may compete at the 1.8% level. Technically, the yield fluctuation is converging, and the market is quiet. The structural differentiation of treasury bond futures continues, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月12日 PTA 每日观点 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡整理，现货市场商谈氛围较清淡，现货基差转弱。9月在01贴水65~75附近商谈成交，价格商谈区 间在4600~4635附近。10月货在01贴水50附近商谈。今日主流现货基差在01-70。中性 2、基差：现货4620，01合约基差-68，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.84天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA检修重启并行，现货市场流通性尚可，现货基差走弱且区域基差有所分化，价格上，周 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing willingness to increase exposure to China [1] - BlackRock indicates that AI-driven U.S. tech stocks will remain a global investment focus, while Chinese tech stocks are attracting more overseas investor attention due to significant valuation gaps and favorable industry conditions [2] - Citigroup's CEO expresses optimism about the Middle East's growth over the next decade, driven by investment inflows and emerging industries, while noting that the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession [4] Group 2 - Fitch raises global GDP growth expectations but notes a slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, projecting global growth to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year [5] - Wells Fargo anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times before mid-2026, reflecting a soft labor market and stable inflation expectations [6] - CITIC Securities highlights a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the medium to long term [8] - CITIC Securities expects the "pig cycle" effect to weaken by September, aiding improvements in CPI readings [9] - Huatai Securities predicts an improvement in profitability for bulk chemical products, with downstream products likely to recover first [10] - Guosheng Securities emphasizes the shift towards genetically modified crops and high-yield varieties in China's seed industry, driven by national food security policies [11] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes improving industry conditions in the cement sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies with advantageous valuations [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply - side fluctuations support the upward trend of propylene spot prices. On the supply side, PDH maintenance supports the supply, and market trading has improved, leading to a rebound in propylene spot prices. On the demand side, the high propylene price has compressed downstream profits, weakening the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries and suppressing the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the cost support for propylene is acceptable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Includes figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers figures like the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Comprises figures of production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][42] 5. Propylene Inventory - Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [63][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the ethylene glycol (EG) industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation of EG shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with attention focused on the commissioning time of new plants. The EG market has a short - term suppression from warehouse receipts and a fourth - quarter inventory accumulation expectation, but the low inventory limits the downward space. In September, the spot is tight [1][3] - The supply side in China has the domestic ethylene glycol load returning to a high level, with the syngas load expected to decline in September. Overseas, there are still many supply losses. The import volume from September to October may be revised downwards. The demand side has a slow recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, with the 9 - month EG balance sheet showing a slight reduction and the main port inventory expected to remain low [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,319 yuan/ton (a change of - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.07% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,440 yuan/ton (a change of - 5 yuan/ton or - 0.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 135 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 70 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 48 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no specific data is provided [19] Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The demand for EG is currently recovering slowly, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 44.9 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 million tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 37.6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.7 million tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 102,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 93,000 tons, with a moderate arrival volume [1]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特11合约涨1.61%。短期地缘因素仍对油价构成支撑，继周二以色列袭击 卡塔尔后，有消息称欧盟或在第19轮对俄制裁中加入部分中国地炼企业。供需方面四季度及明年一 季度市场供需盈余仍将边际放大，上周美国原油库存超预期增加393.9万桶。本周市场处于此前下 跌后的地缘推动反弹期，策略方面仍以此前高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略为主。 (原油) 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布8月PP1年率录得2.6%不及预期的3.3%为6月以来新低,核心PP1同样远不及预期和前 值。特朗普再度发文敦促鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。市场聚焦今晚美国CPI数据，如果同样不及预期 可能会加大对于未来降息幅度的押注。美联储会议前贵金属或维持偏强运行,不过连续上涨后波动 加剧谨慎追高。 (铜) 隔夜内外铜价站上整数关，美国8月PPI液软环降，继续释放联储降息预期。关注国内现价及社库， 铜布高位震荡，虽有冲高概率,但上冲幅度对实体经济指引非常敏感。周内阻力震荡在7.95-8.05 万间。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。下游开工李节性回升，铝棒产量环比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures have stabilized after dropping to the lower end of the fluctuation range at 4650 yuan/ton, with strong support expected for a rebound due to low valuation and tight supply-demand balance [1] Group 1: Raw Material Support - Despite pessimistic market expectations for the future supply-demand pattern of crude oil, international oil prices remain supported around 65 USD/barrel [2] - OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production while emphasizing a cautious and flexible approach to manage voluntary production cuts, which has calmed the market [2] - There has been no significant inventory accumulation in the crude oil market since July, indicating that supply surplus has not been confirmed [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - PTA operating rates are maintained at low levels, with current processing fees below 200 yuan/ton, leading to potential losses for some advanced PTA facilities [3] - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to rise in September and October, but overall consumer demand remains weak, limiting brand replenishment intentions [3] - Polyester average operating rates as of September 4 are at 91%, with filament factories at 86.7%, short fiber factories at 93.9%, and bottle chip factories at 72.9% [3] - The profit margins in the polyester segment have improved, and inventory pressure is expected to be manageable during the peak season, allowing for sustained high operating rates [3] - Overall, the combination of low PTA valuation, short-term crude oil price support, and a tight supply-demand balance suggests strong support around 4700 yuan/ton, with PTA likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, with some PDH units restarting and some undergoing maintenance, the supply of propylene in Shandong is tightening again, and the expected shutdown of the PDH unit in East China supports the supply side, leading to a rebound in propylene spot prices. On the demand side, the high propylene price has narrowed the downstream profit margins, causing a decline in overall downstream开工率. Some downstream industries are less willing to purchase, which may restrict the upward space of propylene prices. On the cost side, there is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, and the geopolitical situation is volatile, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate after a decline. The external propane price is firm recently, but its fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Relevant figures include the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - Relevant figures include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][54] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include the in - plant inventory of propylene and the in - plant inventory of PP powder [64][65]