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国投期货化工日报-20250704
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 13:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Staple Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term market trends of various chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and policy news, showing different trends of narrow - range fluctuations, shock - strengthening, or high - pressure [2][3][4] - The long - term trends of some products are under pressure due to factors like supply increase and demand decline [8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a continuous shock adjustment, with the East China basis dropping significantly and port inventory accumulation expectations being gradually realized [2] - Domestic device operation rate is down, and the operation rates of traditional downstream industries in the inland are also decreasing, with production enterprises slightly increasing inventory [2] - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to Iranian shipments and the operation of coastal olefin devices [2] Urea - The urea futures price first rose and then fell during the day, mainly driven by market rumors of the release of the second batch of export quotas [3] - After precipitation in the mainstream areas, downstream procurement was concentrated, and production enterprise inventory decreased. After the port inspection was relaxed, the port inventory increased significantly [3] - In the short term, the market is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but in the later period, as agricultural demand enters the off - season and supply remains sufficient, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - The polyolefin futures main contract continued to be narrowly sorted during the day, lacking short - term directional guidance [4] - The supply of polyethylene increased, while demand support was limited. The operation rate of the polypropylene device decreased, and downstream orders were insufficient, with the overall operation rate declining [4] Styrene - The styrene futures main contract rose slightly during the day, maintaining a sideways trend [6] - The cost - side support is insufficient, and there is obvious supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak and stable, with a possibility of a slight decrease [6] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and declined, and the industrial supply - demand pattern changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, basis, and spreads under pressure [7] - The import of ethylene glycol is uncertain, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock trend [7] - The prices of staple fiber and bottle chips followed the decline of raw materials. The operation rate of staple fiber increased, but downstream demand decreased. The bottle chip industry reduced production, and the spot processing margin was repaired [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a shock operation. There is an expected increase in supply in the future, while domestic demand is weak, and export orders may decline. In the long term, the futures price may be in a low - level shock [8] - Caustic soda is trending strongly. In the short term, it is driven by cost, but in the long term, it is under pressure due to supply increase [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices declined during the day. Although the sales in some areas improved and inventory decreased, processing orders were weak, and there is limited room for price increase [9] - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory, and the futures price was weak. With reduced demand and short - term supply contraction, it is difficult for the price to rise significantly [9]
国投期货化工日报-20250703
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 13:56
| Million | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月03日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | なな☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | なな女 | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 主流区域降水过后尿素下游采购较为集中,叠加日产小幅下降,周期内生产企业 ...
PX仍偏强,PTA基差快速下行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 05:24
化工日报 | 2025-07-03 PX仍偏强,PTA基差快速下行 TA方面,TA主力合约现货基差 147 元/吨(环比变动-28元/吨),PTA现货加工费305元/吨(环比变动-18元/吨),主 力合约盘面加工费357元/吨(环比变动-29元/吨),当前PTA自身基本面中性,关注成本和需求支撑。 需求方面,聚酯开工率91.4%(环比-0.6%),内外销进入淡季,终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势,但聚酯表现相对良 性,负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化;短纤库存不高,虽然也有减产消息,但 实际执行力度存疑;瓶片方面,华润6.22检修20%已执行,万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修,还涉及产能170万吨,7 月聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%,关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面,现货生产利润179元/吨(环比+16元/吨)。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高,PF自身基本面尚可,但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限,大多刚需采购为主,,但需求走弱预期,关注成本端支撑。 PR方面,瓶片现货加工费327元/吨(环比变动-6元/吨),随着海运费局部略松动,部分海外客户适量补货,聚酯瓶 片工厂库存小幅下降;负荷方面,华润常州和 ...
国投期货化工日报-20250701
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 12:29
| 11/12 | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | なな女 | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 瓶片 | | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 甲醇主力合约震荡调整。伊以冲突期间中东主力区域码头几乎未停止装船,装船减量 ...
化工日报-20250627
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:47
| Mile | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月27日 | | 影丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | РХ | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 伊以局势缓和,风险偏好修复,我国进口供应大幅缩减预期落空。但现阶段伊朗多数装置仍 ...
国投期货化工日报-20250623
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 14:25
| | E Raily | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月23日 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | PX | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | ななな | 瓶片 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 尿素 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | 女女女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 甲醇盘面持续回调。伊朗甲醇装置维持停车,港口库存偏低,且周期内呈现去库,后续我国沿海 ...
化工日报-20250620
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 12:12
| Million | 国收期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月20日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 影丙烯 | ★☆★ | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | PX | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆★ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆☆ | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 瓶片 | | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【聚烯烃】 聚烯烃期货主力合约日内窄幅波动。聚乙烯国内货源供应窄幅减少,随着前期远洋 ...
对二甲苯:油价大幅上涨,估值重塑PTA:成本推升,反套离场
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:40
2025年06月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:油价大幅上涨,估值重塑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:成本推升,反套离场 | 2 | | MEG:多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:重回震荡承压格局 | 6 | | 沥青:暂时震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期震荡,后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP:价格小涨,成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱:高利润背景下估值承压 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡偏弱 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素:短期驱动仍向下,弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:地缘风险仍在,暂时观望避险 | 24 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:反弹趋势延续,近月相对偏弱 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油:强势仍在,外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 29 | | 集运指数(欧线):高位震荡,10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短 ...
化工期货家族将添“新丁”
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-06-06 02:29
Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is seeking public opinion on the upcoming launch of propylene futures and options contracts, indicating a significant development in China's largest olefin product market [2] Group 1: Industry Significance - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product that serves as an intermediary in the petrochemical and coal chemical industries, and the introduction of futures and options will enhance pricing and risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises [2] - The launch of propylene futures and options is expected to improve China's pricing influence in the chemical industry and promote high-quality development [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The propylene industry faces supply-demand mismatches and is undergoing a transition towards high-end and green development, leading to a strong demand for risk management tools [2] - Companies are finding it increasingly difficult to rely on traditional spot trading models, and propylene futures can help mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [2] Group 3: Risk Management Tools - Industry experts highlight that options provide a more refined risk management tool compared to futures, catering to diverse and personalized risk management needs of enterprises [3] - The simultaneous launch of propylene futures and options allows investors to hedge futures position risks, facilitating a stable operation of the new products [3] Group 4: Contract Design and Market Stability - The contract rules for propylene futures have been designed after extensive discussions with various industry stakeholders, reflecting the actual characteristics of the spot market to facilitate participation from industry clients [3] - ZCE emphasizes strict risk control to ensure the smooth launch of contracts and the stable operation of the market [3]
对二甲苯:PXN或继续走强,PTA:贸易环境预期改善,反套离场,MEG:反套离场
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:01
2025 年 6 月 6 日 对二甲苯:PXN 或继续走强 PTA:贸易环境预期改善,反套离场 MEG:反套离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-05 | 6540 | 4644 | 4283 | 6352 | 3489 | | 2025-06-04 | 6578 | 4670 | 4292 | 6408 | 3511 | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 日度变化 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.2 ...