1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Chemical Products - **Positive Outlook (Red Stars)**: Methanol, Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Propylene are rated ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunities; Urea, PVC, and Soda Ash are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - **Negative Outlook (Green Stars)**: There are no products with a green - star rating in the report. - **Balanced Outlook (White Stars)**: Polypropylene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Glass, and Caustic Soda are rated ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The chemical market shows a mixed performance. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, cost factors, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends in price, production, and inventory [2][3][5]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some products, such as far - month pure benzene, consider long - short spreads; for soda ash, use a right - side short - selling strategy; hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy; for glass, look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [3][8]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main futures contract rose slightly. Production enterprises had smooth sales, and multiple plants planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance, boosting market sentiment [2]. - **Polyethylene**: Market sentiment was strong, downstream factories replenished stocks, and production enterprises raised factory prices. The market price trended upward, and low - price transactions were acceptable [2]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply was tight, and some petrochemical factory prices were high, leading to a price - support intention. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, and trading volume decreased [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price in East China was stable. Hydro - benzene production increased, imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. The industry profit improved, and downstream capacity utilization was expected to rise. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate, and consider long - short spreads for far - month contracts [3]. - **Styrene**: The main futures contract rose but was pressured by the semi - annual line. Production enterprises had stable sales, inventory decreased, but the accumulation of raw material pure benzene suppressed the price rebound [3]. 3.3 Polyester - **PX and PTA**: Prices declined. The terminal market weakened, polyester cash flow was low, and production started to decline. The overnight oil price increase slightly boosted the market. PX was expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin moderately recovered [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New domestic plants were about to start production, and overseas plants shut down due to low profitability. Polyester production was expected to decrease, port inventory continued to accumulate, and it will fluctuate at a low level around the Spring Festival. Supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but it will face long - term pressure [5]. - **Short - fiber**: Enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Profits were thin, and downstream factories would gradually take holidays after mid - January. The price fluctuated with raw materials, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [5]. - **Bottle chips**: Demand weakened, downstream buyers restocked as needed, the spot price was slightly lower, and the price followed raw materials. Before the Spring Festival, production and demand will decline, and over - capacity will be a long - term pressure [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemicals - **Methanol**: The trading floor saw intensified long - short battles. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and future imports were expected to decrease significantly. However, high coastal inventory and downstream negative feedback may suppress the market [6]. - **Urea**: The price slightly declined, and enterprise inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Gas - based plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for immediate use. The daily output was expected to increase, but the decline space was limited due to the upcoming spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - **PVC**: The price declined. Maintenance decreased, production increased, downstream demand was weak, and exports were mainly from ethylene - based enterprises. The calcium carbide price increase provided cost support, and the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuated. The chlorine market was good, integrated profits were acceptable, and production was at a high level. Downstream alumina production was high, but the industry was generally in the red. Liquid caustic soda inventory continued to accumulate, and the alumina production cut expectation will suppress the price rebound [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: The price was weakly fluctuating. Supply pressure was high as production increased. Recent trading was mainly by futures - cash arbitrageurs, and downstream buying sentiment was low. Float and photovoltaic glass industries continued to cut capacity, and soda ash inventory continued to accumulate, facing oversupply. Consider short - selling on the right - side and hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The price fell from a high level. The spot market continued to destock, and prices varied by region. All three fuel - based production lines were in the red, and production capacity was compressed to 150,000 tons. Processing orders were weak, and demand was insufficient. After the capacity drops below 150,000 tons, supply - demand will reach a weak balance, and look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [2][3][4] - Some products are expected to have supply - demand changes in the short - and medium - term, which will impact their prices [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Enterprises had smooth shipments and raised offers. Downstream demand was good, and the transaction center shifted upward [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose. For polyethylene, the market improved macroscopically after the holiday, and factors like cost support and reduced market supply increased trading activity. For polypropylene, stable or rising factory prices supported costs, and the pressure of spot circulation was controllable, but downstream factories were cautious [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures rose slightly. The spot price in East China rebounded, and trading in Shandong improved. Imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. Domestic supply increased, and downstream demand rose slightly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and a long spread trade can be considered in the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures continued to move sideways under the suppression of the half - year line. Production and sales of enterprises were stable, and the spot trading atmosphere was average. Export news supported market sentiment, but the continuous inventory build - up of raw material pure benzene suppressed the rebound [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA futures fluctuated widely, and positions decreased. Terminal demand weakened, and polyester cash flow was still poor. Before the Spring Festival,开工 is expected to decline, and demand has negative feedback pressure. In the short - term, external disturbances increase; in the medium - term, the strong expectation of PX remains, and PTA's main driver is raw materials [4] - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants are about to be put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down due to poor profitability. Polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and port inventory continues to accumulate. In the long - term, it is still under pressure, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short - fiber enterprises have low inventory, but downstream demand is weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Band trading can be carried out according to production and demand rhythms [4] - Demand for bottle chips has weakened. The price of the futures follows raw materials, and the spot price has loosened in some areas. There are new investments in the short - term and maintenance in the future. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and cost is the main driver [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market adjusted in a fluctuating manner. Overseas plant operating rates are low, and shipments in the Middle East have slowed down. South American supply is uncertain. High coastal inventory may suppress the market in the short - term, but imports are expected to decrease significantly in the medium - term, and the port is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5] - The urea market oscillated strongly. Gas - fired plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to rise slightly in the near future, and production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory. The supply - demand situation is temporarily tight, and the market is expected to be strong in the short - term [5] Chlor - Alkali - Affected by Shaanxi's policy on high - energy - consuming industries, PVC continued to rise. Maintenance scale decreased, supply increased, but downstream demand was weak. Production enterprises were reducing inventory, and social inventory pressure was high. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the price center is expected to rise [6] - Affected by Shaanxi's differential electricity price policy and positive macro sentiment, caustic soda oscillated strongly. The chlorine market is good, and integrated enterprises still have profits, supporting high - level operation of production. Alumina production is at a high level, but the industry is generally losing money. The future production reduction of alumina will suppress the rebound of caustic soda [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Driven by rising upstream costs and improved trading, soda ash rose strongly. The market sentiment led to inventory replenishment, and some enterprises stopped taking orders. Future supply pressure is high. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are expected to continue to reduce production capacity, and the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price changes; in the long - term, soda ash faces over - supply pressure [7] - Driven by positive macro sentiment, glass rose strongly. Recent spot trading was good. Four production lines were shut down recently, and all three types of fuel - based production lines are losing money. Future production capacity is expected to continue to be reduced. Processing orders are still weak, and demand is insufficient. The industry is expected to reduce production capacity in the long - term, and daily melting is expected to fall below 150,000 tons [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere is favorable, and attention should be paid to cost - side changes. The tense situation in Iran is supporting the rebound of oil prices. In the PX market, short - term supply is expected to increase, but the outlook for the second quarter of next year is good. For PTA, the short - term inventory situation is acceptable, and the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term. The demand side of polyester is weakening, and different products in the polyester industry have different performance in terms of profit and inventory. [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [10][13][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit. [20][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit. [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia. [29][32][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF. [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Involve the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber's operating rate, factory equity inventory days, production profit, and the operating rates and profits of related products such as pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [76][80][90] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Show polyester bottle - chip's operating rate, factory inventory days, processing fees (spot and export), export profit, and price spreads. [93][98][100]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Methanol (★☆☆), PVC (★☆☆) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Propylene, Polypropylene, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass (White Stars) [1] Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face short - term pressure but have medium - to long - term improvement expectations, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][4] - Different products have different driving factors, including raw materials, production capacity changes, and downstream demand rhythms [4] Summary by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures oscillated. Downstream polypropylene demand recovery is limited due to cost and device status. Chemical downstream factories' procurement improved slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures moved narrowly. Polyethylene supply may increase, and downstream demand is weak. Polypropylene production is expected to rise slightly, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures were weak. Port inventory is high, but there are expectations of supply - demand improvement. Consider long - spread arbitrage in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures moved narrowly. Cost has no obvious positive impact, and there is an inventory build - up expectation [3] Polyester - PX prices may adjust in the short term but have strong medium - term expectations. PTA is mainly driven by raw materials [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak short - term fundamental, but may improve in the second quarter. It is under long - term pressure [4] - Short fiber has a good long - term supply - demand pattern. Bottle chip is affected by production capacity and cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures were strong. Import volume is expected to decrease, and the port may enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium term [5] - Urea supply may increase later, and the post - holiday market may decline slightly [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC futures were strong. Supply may increase, demand is low, and inventory pressure is high. It may move in a range [6] - Caustic soda futures declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand growth is limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures moved narrowly. Supply pressure is large, and there is a long - term supply - demand surplus risk [7] - Glass futures oscillated. The industry is de - capacitying, and demand is insufficient [7]

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures continue to show a fluctuating trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6843.00 yuan and currently trading at 6809.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.80% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Nanhua Futures advises against high-position buying of styrene, citing a temporary supply contraction due to an unexpected shutdown of a 450,000-ton styrene facility in Tianjin, which has led to a positive sentiment in the market [2] - Newhu Futures indicates that styrene prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the Jiangsu market closing at 6790-6840 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day, driven by reduced planned supply and increased export transactions [2] - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is improving, with funds beginning to position themselves positively at lower levels, particularly in PX and PTA, which have seen significant short-term price increases [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a balance of positive news on both supply and demand sides, with increased export discussions and a reduction in supply contributing to market optimism [2] - Port inventories continue to decline, providing some support for styrene prices, while the price gap between Shandong and Jiangsu markets has opened an arbitrage window, although there is limited flow of Shandong goods to East China [2] - In the medium term, the pressure on styrene prices is expected to ease, with no new capacity pressures anticipated in the next six months, allowing for some upward adjustment in existing operations [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified with a clear rating description [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Styrene: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Propylene: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PVC: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PX: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - PTA: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - Glass: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose in some sectors, while demand varies by product. Some products are in a seasonal demand slump, and the market support from the supply - demand fundamentals is relatively weak. However, some products have positive factors such as inventory reduction and strong raw material expectations, which bring upward impetus [2][3][5] - For different chemical products, different investment strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, cost changes, and market trends, including short - term and medium - long - term strategies [3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. The overall supply was relatively loose, but the low - price transactions improved, and the production enterprises' willingness to stabilize the market was prominent [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply of polyethylene remained at a high level for a long time, and the downstream demand decreased. The polypropylene was in the seasonal demand off - season, and the demand release was limited in the short term [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The unified benzene futures price fluctuated at a low level during the day. The port inventory continued to rise, but there were expectations of device maintenance and downstream load increase in the future, and the supply was expected to increase. In the medium - term, considering the de - stocking expectation in the first half of next year, it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the monthly difference at a low price [3] - The styrene futures main contract continued to rise during the day, breaking through the upper limit of the previous consolidation range. Driven by the strength of aromatics and export negotiations, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price support of styrene became stronger [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation continued to drive the price up, and PTA increased its positions and followed the rise. In the short term, PX supply was expected to increase, and PTA was expected to maintain a low - load de - stocking state. The upward drive mainly came from raw material PX. In the medium - term, a long - position strategy was recommended [5] - The ethylene glycol price fluctuated mainly. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester had a load - reduction expectation, but the decrease in arrival volume and device maintenance alleviated the inventory - accumulation pressure. In the long - term, it was still under pressure due to large - scale device production [5] - The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuated with raw materials. In the demand off - season, the basis and processing margin weakened. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern was relatively good. The bottle - chip demand declined, and the spot processing margin was better than the futures, but the overall situation was still not ideal, with over - capacity being the long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures fluctuated within a range. The port inventory increased significantly due to the recovery of import unloading speed and weakening of inland demand. In the short term, the inventory was high, and the market might fluctuate weakly within the range. In the long - term, there was an upward driving force, and it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the 5 - 9 monthly difference at a low price [6] - The urea futures fluctuated strongly. The production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly, and the market sentiment promoted good transactions. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the daily output decreased, and the reserve demand continued to advance. The short - term supply - demand gap tightened, and the market fluctuated strongly [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The start - up rate decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and the supply pressure was expected to ease in 2026. The downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [7] - Caustic soda showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed, which supported the price of liquid caustic soda. The downstream replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory pressure was still high. The supply pressure was large, and the expected upward range was limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The weekly output decreased slightly but was still above 700,000 tons, and there was new production capacity release in the future. The inventory continued to decrease, and the demand was mainly for downstream replenishment. In the long - term, it faced the pressure of supply - demand surplus, and a high - selling strategy was recommended. A long - glass and short - soda ash 05 strategy could be considered at a low level [8] - Glass showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the spot market was average. The production capacity decreased slightly, and the profit was compressed. The processing orders were sluggish, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needed to reduce production capacity to achieve balance [8]

后市来看，苯乙烯期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）指出，本周宝来35万吨装置重启，天津渤化45万吨装置故障停车，前期重启装置影 响扩大，苯乙烯产量、产能利用率环比上升。下游EPS、PS、UPR、丁苯橡胶装置开工负荷不同程度上 升，ABS开工率小幅下降。工厂、港口库存变化不一，显性库存去化趋势放缓。受美委地缘局势恶化影 响，近期国际油价涨幅显著。本周非一体化装置维持亏损状态，一体化装置盈利缩窄。短期原油成本支 撑与苯乙烯供需宽松博弈，EB2602预计震荡走势，关注6390附近支撑与6690附近压力。 12月25日，苯乙烯前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓32.47万手，空单持仓34.72万手，多空 比0.94。净持仓为-2.25万手，相较上日增加1.59万手。 12月25日，大商所苯乙烯期货仓单录得1700手，较上一交易日持平；最近一周，苯乙烯期货仓单累计增 长1000手，增长幅度为142.86%；最近一个月，苯乙烯期货仓单累计增长240手，增长幅度为16.44%。 最新数据显示，截至12月25日当周，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在35.46万吨，环比上涨0.78万吨，涨幅为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 2 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：12月25日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.98%，基差走强至-72元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5060元/吨，较前一交易日上涨42元/吨。成本端布伦特原油上涨到62.5美元/桶；供给端一套220万吨 装置近日重启，PTA产能利用率75.24%，较前日+2.32%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.61天，环比减少0.15天。 主力合约：12月25日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨2.25%，基差走弱至-184元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二醇华东地区市场价3635元/吨，较前一交易日上涨37元/吨。成本端原油价格、煤炭价格反弹；华东主港地区MEG库 存总量64.5万吨，较上一期降低1.48万吨。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 走势预期：港口库存高位去化带动乙二醇价格底部反弹，加上之前多套装置停车检修对乙二醇供应端压力形成缓解，但26年的供应压 力仍然偏大。预计乙二醇在春节前需求走弱的预期 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Methanol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic Soda: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures showed different trends on December 24, 2025, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and downstream demand [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures rose. Price concessions led to better low - price transactions, but supply in Shandong was loose. PDH enterprises may reduce price - cutting willingness due to rising costs [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose due to technical rebounds. The domestic polyethylene market price continued to decline, and polypropylene faced issues like insufficient new orders and restricted circulation due to year - end fund recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated and recovered, remaining in the bottom - range oscillation. There are expectations of supply - demand improvement, and a long position in the monthly spread is considered for the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures rose. Cost support was insufficient, and the supply - side pressure was difficult to reverse despite increased exports. Market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectations pushed up prices, but the upward momentum slowed. PTA's processing margin is expected to recover, and downstream polyester may reduce production [4] - Ethylene glycol had a large - scale position - reduction rebound. It is under long - term pressure but may see supply - demand improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it is driven by cost with over - capacity as a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's port inventory increased significantly. It may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward drivers in the long term. A long position in the 5 - 9 monthly spread is recommended [5] - Urea production enterprises reduced inventory, and the market was strong in the short term due to factors such as reduced production and stable demand [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure eased, but demand was weak, and it may operate at a low level [6] - Caustic soda showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash mainly showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was large, and it may face long - term supply - demand surplus. A strategy of shorting soda ash and longing glass in the 05 contract is recommended [7] - Glass showed a strong trend. Inventory pressure was large, demand was insufficient, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]