工业硅期货早报 2025年9月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 | ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 | ， | 环比有所增加2 . | 27% 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 | ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | 2万吨 环比增长3 . ， | 80% . . | 需求有所抬升 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 | 3万吨 . ， | 处于低位 | 硅片亏损 ， ， | 电池 ...

河南日报社财经全媒体中心记者 贾永标 作为实体经济的"领头雁"，河南A股上市公司稳中有进，让我们看到了豫股穿越经济周期的定力与韧 性，以及咬定青山不放松的勇毅与果敢。 传统产业"提质增效"扛大梁 曾几何时，养猪是一门高级不起来的生意，但牧原股份却通过科技养猪，对传统产业进行提质增效，成 就了"世界猪王"。 尤其是今年上半年，该公司实现营业收入764.63亿元，同比增长34.46%，营收规模创历史同期新高；归 母净利润为105.30亿元，同比激增1169.77%，盈利规模也创下近5年新高。 "我们死磕技术，从四面透风的小猪圈发展到现在的智能空气过滤猪舍，无论在零下40℃的黑龙江，还 是40℃的海南，都能让猪舍四季如春，让猪高健康、不生病、长得快。"牧原股份董事长秦英林说，企 业目前正向世界最高养猪水平进发。 在行业人士看来，在上一轮猪周期的洗礼下，部分低效低质产能被市场淘汰，对于牧原股份这样具备成 本领先优势的头部企业而言，是重大利好。今年上半年，牧原股份业绩大幅增长，主要得益于报告期内 生猪出栏量较去年同期上升，带动收入增长，同时生猪养殖成本较去年同期显著下降。 在河南A股上市公司群体中，像牧原股份这样深耕传 ...

9月2日，三大指数集体回调，金价触及3578美元后陷入震荡，黄金相关ETF表现分化，截至13：15，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌2.03%，其持仓 股白银有色（601212），西部黄金（601069）强势涨停，金钼股份（601958）、天山铝业（002532）、中国稀土（000831）等股涨幅靠前，华友 钴业（603799）、锡业股份（000960）、盛和资源（600392）等股领跌。资金面上，近5个交易日持续吸金1.09亿，昨日净流入5400万，黄金股 ETF(159562)跌1.08%，其持仓股神宇股份（300563）、山东黄金（600547）、铜陵有色（000630）等股跌幅靠前，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨 0.72%。 美联储降息预期大幅升温。消息面上，CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率下降至10.3%，降息25个基点的概率升高至 89.7%，接近90%。 德邦证券表示，美联储降息预期叠加美元全球地位逐步动摇长期逻辑的加速落地，市场对黄金持续看好，金价上行将持续拉高金银比，有望持续 推动银价上行。 有色金属ETF基金(516650)跟踪的中证细分有色金属产业主题指 ...

（来源：ETF和LOF圈） 在近一个月的震荡之后，恒生指数9月1日大幅跳空高开，全天维持高位震荡，最终报收于25617.42点， 上涨2.15%。主要成分股中，阿里巴巴-W飙升18.50%，药明生物走高8.37%，紫金矿业上涨7.74%，科 技、医药、有色等方向多点开花。 随着美联储降息预期日渐强烈，外部环境走向宽松，港股未来依然有走强的预期。从近期表现来看，港 股表现相对落后于A股，但整体估值上恒生指数、恒生科技指数均更合理。恒生科技指数目前市盈率仅 21.23倍，处于历史20%分位点以下。而历史上人民币的升值周期内，恒生指数年化收益率中位数达 36.5%，相对沪深300的29.8%更高。 另一方面，港股成分股良好的基本面也支持港股继续上行。8月29日阿里巴巴发布中期业绩报告，整体 业绩大幅超出市场预期，其中云智能服务收入同比增幅达到26%，进一步确认了AI推动盈利增长的行业 逻辑。而从行业分布上看，港股中科技、医药等成长股含量较高，结构上相对A股更具优势。AI互联 网、创新药景气度不断改善的背景下，后续港股有望完成追赶交易，估值仍有进一步抬升的空间。 推荐投资者继续对$港股科技ETF(513020)保持关 ...

发布时间：2025-09-02 大盘指数 2000 3000 4000 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《美联储降息预期助力 A 股更上层楼》 - 2025.08.26 策略观点 波动或将扩大，把握市场节奏变化 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股继续上涨，但在节奏上出现了一定波折。本周主要股指 全数上涨，其中创业板指整周上涨 7.74%表现最佳，科创 50 延续上周 强势表现继续上涨 7.49%。风格方面，本周风格层面出现明显分层， 成长风格延续上周强势表现，周期和消费风格涨幅较上周明显收窄， 而稳定和金融风格本周转跌。市值风格方面，本周中盘指数表现最佳， 大盘和小盘风格涨幅较上周有所减缓。本周代表核心资产和成长龙头 的茅指数和宁组合亦有较大幅度上涨，宁组合整周上涨 3.91%，茅指 数上涨 3.63%。 行业层面，继续 TMT 强势领涨格局，红利股表现弱势。本周申万 一级行业中通信（1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with new orders supporting the expansion of manufacturing output, and domestic demand driving sales growth [7][8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, and the market continues to be bullish on the unilateral trend of gold and silver, with gold expected to reach $3,600 per ounce and silver to reach $45 per ounce [9][10]. - Black commodities: Strong macro - expectations are fully priced, and the valuation is facing a test from fundamentals. Short - term fundamentals may limit the upward drive of black commodity valuations, but potential policy - related positive risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: As of the latest data, COMEX silver reached a maximum of $41.76 per ounce, and COMEX gold reached $3,557 per ounce. SPDR Gold ETF had a weekly increase of 20.91 tons, and the net long - position ratio in the Shanghai gold market reached a record high [9][10]. - **Driving Factors**: Powell's dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts and the in - line PCE data have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts this year to 75bp. Technically, the breakthrough is the core driver of the upward movement [9]. 3.2 Black Commodities - **Fundamental Situation**: Inventory characteristics of various commodities may have shown signs of loosening, such as the inflection point of coking coal inventory, the slow start of iron ore port inventory accumulation, and the continuous accumulation of downstream steel product inventory. The expected resumption of production after the parade and high pig iron output may deepen inventory contradictions [11]. 3.3 Copper - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The spot price was firm due to a high premium [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Some copper mines and factories had production - related news such as maintenance completion and production resumption [21][23]. 3.4 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan, with a 0.16% increase. It is expected to trade in a range [24]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, which had an impact on the market [25]. 3.5 Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan, with a 0.15% decrease. The continuous decrease in inventory supported the price [27]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved [28]. 3.6 Tin - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan, with a 1.94% decrease. It is expected to trade in a range [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various macro - level news such as the performance of the stock and futures markets and international events [32]. 3.7 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3,008 yuan. The fundamentals of aluminum were weak, and alumina was in low - level oscillation [34]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB's inflation target and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had an impact on the market [36]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. They are expected to have narrow - range oscillations [37]. - **Industry News**: There were many news about nickel production in Indonesia, such as production suspension, quota adjustment, and environmental issues [37][38][39]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 75,540 yuan, and it is expected to continue its weak - oscillation trend due to the partial suspension of the "trade - in" program [43]. - **Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was adjusted [44][45]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,495 yuan, and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 52,285 yuan. Industrial silicon is recommended to short at high prices, and polysilicon's spot price increased with amplified market fluctuations [46][47]. - **Industry News**: Yunnan's new energy power - grid connection policy was released [47][48][49]. 3.11 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 12601 contract of iron ore closed at 766 yuan, with a 2.73% decrease. It is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to repeated macro - expectations [50]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,039 yuan, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,320 yuan. The rapid inventory accumulation led to price oscillations and corrections [52]. - **Industry News**: There were data on steel production, inventory, and demand in August, and the manufacturing supply index decreased [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures decreased, and the market sentiment was weak, with expectations of weak oscillations [56]. - **Industry News**: There were price and production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and South Africa's manganese ore export data [57][58]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,118.5 yuan, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,594.5 yuan. They are expected to have wide - range oscillations [59]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [59]. 3.15 Logs - **Market Performance**: Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [61]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [64]. 3.16 Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Performance**: The main contract of paraxylene closed at 6,866 yuan, PTA at 4,772 yuan, and MEG at 4,427 yuan. Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and PTA and MEG have trading strategies of long PTA and short MEG [65][66]. - **Market News**: There were price changes and trading situations of paraxylene and PTA in the Asian market, and the difficulty in contract price negotiations [67][68].

据信达证券研究所测算，截至8月29日，主动权益类基金测算仓位再度突破90%，为2021年3月以来最高 水平。其中，普通股票型基金的平均仓位约为91.94%，较此前一周上升1.16个百分点;偏股混合型基金 的平均仓位约为90.39%，上升1.53个百分点。 从具体方向看，上周基金加仓了通信、有色金属、房地产、电子、食品饮料等行业，减仓了汽车、计算 机、基础化工等行业。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 0901 港股日评：三大股指上涨，港股通商贸零 售领涨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 1 日，港股市场大市成交额达到 3802.3 亿港元，南向资金净买入 119.42 亿港元。 港股三大股指上涨，主要是因为：市场预期 9 月美联储降息概率上升到 89.6%，全球流动性宽 松预期升温，推动外资流向新兴市场。美元指数走弱，离岸人民币升值，吸引国际资产配置港 股资产。港股主要互联网股业绩超预期，AI 方面的资本开支超市场预期，有效提振了市场对 AI 应用商业化前景的信心，带动港股相关板块上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 0901 港股日评：三大股指上涨，港股通商贸零 2] 售领涨 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Report] •《0828 A 股日评：波动加大，不改"慢牛"趋势》 2 ...

【新闻】 中国 8 月标普制造业 PMI 回升至 50.5，新订单增速为 3 月以来最快。新订单增加推动制造业生产恢复 增长，新出口业务萎缩步伐放缓，采购活动和库存增加，商业信心也有所提升，但企业在员工招聘方面仍保 持谨慎。（华尔街见闻） 内需回暖提振，欧元区 8 月制造业 PMI 三年来首次升至荣枯线上方，德法强劲反弹。（华尔街见闻） 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16855 | -0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1997 | 0.45% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 39854 | -3999 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5890 | 2073 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51017 | 1835 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 1603 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are in a narrow - range oscillatory state, with the trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel being neutral [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450, with a change of 1,750 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,950, with a change of 135 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 171,897, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 164,893 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 123,575, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (factory price) is 942, and the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Supply - side News**: In March 2025, Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. In April 2025, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron. In 2025, an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to reduce the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metric tons [2][3][4][5]. - **Policy - related News**: In 2025, Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget starting from October 2025. The Indonesian government has approved a 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production of 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target of 3.19 billion tons [4][5]. - **Environmental News**: Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire industrial park. The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [3][6]. - **Domestic Steel Mill News**: Due to the provincial steel mill's annual production reduction target of 5%, a steel mill in Shandong started maintenance, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending the delivery obligations of long - term supply agreements signed in August 2025 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [7].