Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand [2] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion, while medium and small enterprises experienced declines [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors reported PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating sustained growth [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3% in August, up by 0.2 percentage points, continuing the expansion trend [4] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with significant growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Composite PMI Insights - The Composite PMI Output Index stood at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturing sector shows an acceleration in expansion, particularly in the service industry, while the construction sector experiences a decline due to adverse weather conditions [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August is reported at 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion [1] - The service industry business activity index reached 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, marking the highest level for the year [1] Sector Performance - Various sectors related to consumption, supported by summer consumption and "two new" policies, are showing expansion, with financial services playing a more significant role in economic support [1] - Specific sectors such as capital market services, railway transport, air transport, and telecommunications are all above 60%, indicating a high level of business activity and rapid growth [1] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index has fallen into the contraction zone due to recent adverse weather conditions, impacting production and construction activities [1] - Despite this, civil engineering remains in the expansion zone, suggesting that infrastructure-related activities continue to grow at a fast pace [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand [2] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion, while medium and small enterprises experienced declines [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating strong performance in these sectors [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its expansion [4] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with significant growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index stood at 50.5%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's growth [5]

统计局解读：8月服务业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，升至年内高点。从行业看，资本市场服务、铁路运输、航空运输、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业务总量较快增长，其中资本市场服务商务活动指数连续两个月高于70.0%；同时，零售、房地产等行业商务活动指数均低于临界点，景气度偏弱。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为57.0%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明服务业企业对近期市场发展前景较为乐观。 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth of the Service Sector - The service sector maintained a rapid growth rate, with a value added of 39,031.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - The contribution rate of the service sector to national economic growth was 60.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - In the second quarter, the service sector's value added accelerated to 195,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [2] Group 2: High-Quality Development and New Momentum - Modern service industries, such as information technology and business services, showed strong growth, with value added increasing by 11.1% and 9.6% respectively in the first half of the year [3] - The combined value added of these sectors contributed 1.7 percentage points to the overall growth of the service sector [3] - High-tech service industries saw significant investment growth, with fixed asset investment in high-tech services increasing by 8.6% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption showed steady improvement, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [5] - Online retail sales increased by 8.5% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in new business models such as instant retail and live e-commerce [5] - Cultural and tourism services also experienced significant growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 31.9% and 7.4% respectively [5] Group 4: International Trade and Investment in Services - The total import and export value of service trade reached 32,543.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [6] - The actual use of foreign capital in the service sector was 259.64 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of total foreign capital utilization [6] - The e-commerce service industry saw a remarkable increase in foreign investment, growing by 146% year-on-year [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The business activity index for the service sector remained above the critical point, averaging 50.2, indicating expansion [8] - The business activity expectation index averaged 56.7, reflecting a positive market sentiment [8] - The service sector is expected to continue its upward trend, but external uncertainties remain, necessitating further policy support to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance service quality [8]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices indicating a recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in June. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [3] - Production and new orders indices were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continued to expand, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.1%, showing stability, although some consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction industry saw a significant increase, with a business activity index of 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [5] Group 3: Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [7][8]

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]