Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market may continue its upward trend in January, with a high probability of a spring offensive, focusing on sectors like commercial aerospace, AI applications, AI computing power, and semiconductor equipment [2][7] - The total market turnover reached 3.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 322.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with 3,920 stocks rising, 1,495 remaining flat, and 201 declining [1][7] - The three major broad-based ETFs from Huabao Fund provide investors with diverse options to invest in China, tracking the CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices [2][3] Group 2 - The market sentiment is expected to be influenced by earnings disclosures, with a focus on stocks that exceed expectations or stabilize post-disclosure [2][7] - Key sectors to watch in January include technology, represented by commercial aerospace and AI, as well as resource products like industrial metals, alongside service consumption and non-bank financials [2][7] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Hongbo Co., Ltd. announced the cessation of printing operations by its wholly-owned subsidiary Hongbo Haotian Technology Co., Ltd. starting January 8, 2026, as part of a strategic business transformation to enhance profitability and shift towards becoming a technology-oriented enterprise [1] Group 1: Business Transformation - Hongbo Haotian, established in 2010, has faced continuous losses in its printing business due to digital disruption, which has burdened the overall performance of the listed company [1] - The strategic adjustment aims to divest the long-term loss-making printing segment and seek asset revitalization, thereby optimizing the business structure [1] - The company is focused on accelerating its transformation into a technology-driven enterprise, reflecting management's confidence in the ongoing development of its AI computing business [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - According to Hongbo Co., Ltd.'s 2025 semi-annual report, revenue from the AI computing business reached 594 million, accounting for over 75% of total revenue, indicating significant progress in the strategic shift from traditional business [1] - The successful transformation of Hongbo Haotian could further support the company's development, given its advantageous location in Beijing and quality assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing enthusiasm of investors in the A-share market, with a significant rise in new account openings for both individual and institutional investors, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market as the Shanghai Composite Index continues to rise [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investor Participation - In 2025, the total number of new A-share accounts reached 27.4369 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.75%. Individual investors accounted for 27.3324 million new accounts, up 9.67%, while institutional investors opened 10,453.9 thousand accounts, marking a 34.91% increase [5][6]. Monthly Account Openings - December 2025 saw 2.5967 million new A-share accounts opened, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 30.55% compared to December 2024 [5]. The monthly trend showed a peak in March 2025 with 3.0655 million new accounts, followed by a decline in April to 1.9244 million, which was a 59.3% decrease from March [6][7]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a bullish trend in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, an increase of nearly 6 percentage points compared to 2024 [10]. The index reached a new high of 4083.67 points on January 6, 2026, following a strong performance after the New Year [11]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will continue to exhibit a structural bullish trend, supported by favorable policies and improving economic indicators. The focus will be on sectors such as technology, industrial metals, and consumer services, with an emphasis on performance disclosures in January [12][13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the industry style is shifting from technology growth to upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption as the PPI decline narrows and turns positive [1] - In the MSCI China A-share ESG sector, three main directions are highlighted: cyclical recovery industries such as energy metals, wind power equipment, and engineering machinery; technology growth areas like AI computing power and energy storage; and consumer recovery sectors including food and beverage, social services, and personal care [1] - The anti-involution policy is improving the supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, combined with resilient overseas demand, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery in ESG-related industries [1] Group 2 - The MSCI ESG ETF (159621) tracks the MSCI China A-share Renminbi ESG General Index (MSC278), which selects listed companies with robust ESG performance and positive improvement trends from the Chinese A-share market [1] - The index employs an industry-balanced distribution strategy, leaning towards core asset allocation, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of high-quality Chinese A-share companies that adhere to ESG investment principles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a favorable economic outlook for the spring of 2025, supported by improved PMI data and a lack of significant downward risks, which may lead to a sustained bullish market trend [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 PMI showed a seasonal improvement, with production, new orders, and new export orders all significantly better than seasonal averages, attributed to the later timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 and the pre-emptive nature of export orders [2][3]. - The absence of major economic downturn risks creates a continuous window for market performance, particularly as the A-share market is expected to see a positive start to the year [5]. Market Dynamics - Economic and industrial changes are slow variables, while capital supply and demand are fast variables, which will be more pronounced in the spring market. The influx of capital from insurance and foreign investments is anticipated to support the A-share market [5][8]. - The year-end surge in the CSI A500 ETF indicates a stable influx of marginal funds, which is expected to continue into the new year, enhancing market sentiment and broadening the profit-making effect across sectors [5][8]. Investment Opportunities - The spring season is identified as a critical time for potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors and cyclical industries, with themes such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics gaining traction [9][10]. - The article suggests that the conditions for a comprehensive bull market in 2026 are gradually being established, driven by improvements in the manufacturing sector and increased foreign investment interest [8][9]. Sector Performance - The article highlights the performance of various sectors, noting that defense, machinery, and automotive sectors are showing continued profit expansion, while sectors like consumer goods and real estate are experiencing contraction [13]. - The relative strength of the ChiNext index compared to the CSI 300 indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a focus on high-performing stocks within the growth sectors [12]. ETF Trends - The article provides insights into the performance of various ETFs, noting significant changes in share volumes and price movements, which reflect broader market trends and investor sentiment [14].

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations after the start of the year, driven by a low funding heat at the end of last year and a market sentiment that is eager for growth [2] - Key sectors for investment include materials, overseas computing power, and semiconductors, with a focus on high-quality real estate developers and industries related to travel services such as duty-free and aviation [2] - Mid-term preferences lean towards sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, power equipment, and new energy [2] Group 2 - The spring market is likely to gradually start, with a favorable liquidity environment expected before the Spring Festival, although some volatility may occur in January [3] - Institutional funds, including insurance and private equity, are expected to have strong replenishment motivation, focusing on themes with strong industrial trends or multiple catalysts [3] - The spring market may require verification of economic data to confirm continued acceleration [3] Group 3 - Consumption and growth are anticipated to be the two main lines of the spring market, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles in January [4] - If the market style leans towards growth, top-rated sectors include electronics, power equipment, communications, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and defense [4] - In a defensive market style, top-rated sectors include non-bank financials, electronics, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automobiles, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The mid-term trend remains upward, with a strong consensus on the dual mainline thinking of technology and cycles, focusing on assets in trend [5] - In the technology sector, priority should be given to AI computing power, energy storage, and storage chips, while in the cyclical sector, attention should be on directions that validate price increases [5] - Short-term participation should focus on industrial catalysts, with domestic emphasis on commercial aerospace and software innovation [5] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active and trend upward due to multiple positive factors [6] - The technology sector is seen as a long-term investment mainline, benefiting from price increases and mergers and acquisitions [6] - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, indicating significant long-term upside potential [6]

证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 开门红 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2026年01月04日 相关研究 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善。春节较晚，出口订单前置，支撑岁末年 初经济验证。春季没有下行风险的格局再强化，且有利于行情演绎的窗口连续不断。上 证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深。 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风 ...

更多访谈点击查看《基金佳问》专栏 【编者按】2025年，A股市场迎来里程碑式发展：总市值站上100万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。站在"十五五"规划的开局之年， 2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 12月31日，在岁末展望之际，博时基金权益投资四部投资副总监、基金经理肖瑞瑾做客搜狐财经直播间，回顾了过去一年A股的结构性行情，并对2026年的 市场走势、风格切换以及备受关注的AI产业投资脉络进行了深度解析。 肖瑞瑾：关键的变量取决于国内外两个因素。国外需要关注美联储的降息周期。目前市场普遍预期明年还有两次降息。如果美联储本轮降息周期结束，可能 意味着货币宽松周期暂时告一段落，这可能导致全球资金配置和市场份额出现一定变化。国内则关键在于房地产数据何时能够企稳甚至回升，以及国内宏观 经济能否在年内触底回升。如果宏观经济触底回升的预期增强，从利率端看，长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by government initiatives and increasing demand for domestic AI chips, particularly the H200 chip, which is set to be delivered to Chinese customers soon [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of 2025, AI computing stocks saw a strong afternoon rally, with the cloud computing ETF (159890) rising over 1% and achieving a six-day winning streak [1]. - Notable stock performances included a rise of 11.46% for Yidian Tianxia, over 8% for Hand Information, and more than 4% for companies like Zhongke Xingtai and Wanxing Technology [1]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Developments - A key government official announced the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, which aims to create extensive application scenarios for AI computing power chips, leading to rapid growth in demand and innovation within the sector [3]. - The conditional opening of the H200 chip to China is seen as a positive development, with major tech companies like Alibaba and ByteDance planning significant purchases to enhance their AI capabilities [4]. Group 3: Domestic Chip Strategy - Domestic companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the H200 chip's availability, with Alibaba and ByteDance pursuing large-scale purchases, while Baidu focuses on self-developed Kunlun AI chips to reduce reliance on external suppliers [4]. - Tencent is exploring indirect methods to acquire advanced computing power, aiming to secure over $1.2 billion in usage rights for the latest B200/B300 chips [4]. Group 4: Growth Projections - According to IDC and Inspur, China's intelligent computing power is projected to reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028 [6]. - The general computing power in China is expected to grow to 85.8 EFLOPS by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% during the same period [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The current landscape of the AI computing market presents numerous opportunities for investment, with a focus on domestic chip development and technological innovation [5][6]. - The cloud computing ETF (159890) tracks a diverse range of companies involved in AI infrastructure and applications, indicating a comprehensive approach to the AI computing era [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent eight consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index signal a positive outlook, indicating that the A-share year-end rally has commenced [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - Three main expectations are driving the initiation of the year-end rally: a consensus of optimism among institutional investors, the anticipated early arrival of the spring market, and the conclusion of adjustments in overseas AI models, leading to improved liquidity and risk conditions [1] - Recent announcements of the 15th Five-Year Plan policies and events have heightened investor expectations regarding policy [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch for the year-end rally include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, which are expected to experience significant catalytic growth [1] - The primary market focus remains on commercial aerospace, with secondary themes including the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1]