Core Insights - Ningbo Fubang (600768.SH) reported a revenue of 834 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 16.14 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 298.79% [1] - In the third quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 297 million yuan, which is a slight decline of 0.80% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was 6.46 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 121.65% [1] - The substantial growth in performance is primarily attributed to the continuous rise in silver prices and the improved profitability of the company's electrical contact products business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has led to a decrease in market risk aversion, resulting in a decline in COMEX gold futures prices, currently trading around $4098 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.36%, while Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 1.8% and Nonferrous Metal ETF (516650) increased by 2.88% [1] - Notable stock performances included Xiamen Tungsten, which hit the daily limit, along with Western Superconducting, Jiangxi Copper, and Vanadium Titanium shares all experiencing gains [1] Group 2: Economic Developments - The US-China economic teams concluded a two-day negotiation in Kuala Lumpur, with US Treasury Secretary Becerra stating that a "very substantive framework agreement" was reached, and the US will no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Short-term gold prices may experience fluctuations during a correction, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and lingering potential risks, suggesting that gold prices may still have upward potential over an extended investment horizon [1]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao (01378) saw its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a new historical high of 28.96 HKD, with a trading volume of 566 million HKD [1] - Huatai Securities forecasts a global primary aluminum supply-demand gap of -59.1 million tons in 2025 and -84.3 million tons in 2026, predicting that LME aluminum prices may exceed 3200 USD/ton by 2026 [1] - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the tightening supply-demand dynamics are significantly improving the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry, with leading companies like China Hongqiao beginning to implement stable dividends [1] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum sector is transitioning from a traditional cyclical industry to a high-quality, scarce asset with price elasticity and dividend support [1] - The overall trend in the electrolytic aluminum industry is towards increased dividends this year, reflecting improved profitability amid supply constraints [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a new historical high of 28.96 HKD, driven by positive market sentiment and forecasts regarding aluminum supply and demand dynamics [1] Industry Summary - According to Huatai Securities, the global primary aluminum supply-demand gap is projected to be -59.1 million tons in 2025 and -84.3 million tons in 2026, indicating a tightening market. It is expected that the LME aluminum price may exceed 3200 USD/ton by 2026 [1] - The domestic supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to a significant narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international aluminum prices, with domestic prices likely to perform more strongly [1] Company Summary - Tianfeng Securities notes that the tightening supply-demand landscape is significantly improving the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry, with high profits expected to continue. This improvement in profitability is also reflected in the performance of electrolytic aluminum companies [1] - With the limitation on domestic supply, the peak of capital expenditure for electrolytic aluminum companies has passed. Leading companies like China Hongqiao are gradually implementing stable dividend policies, and there is a noticeable trend of increasing dividends across the electrolytic aluminum sector this year [1] - The current electrolytic aluminum stocks are transitioning from traditional cyclical commodities to high-quality, scarce assets characterized by price elasticity and dividend support [1]

Core Points - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (601212.SH) received an administrative penalty from the Gansu Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to disclose overdue financial products amounting to 3 billion yuan, resulting in a total fine of 8.8 million yuan for the company and its executives [2] - The company purchased 30 billion yuan in financial products between August 2017 and March 2018, which were not recovered on time in 2019 and only fully recovered by December 2024, leading to a significant delay of six years [2] - The Gansu Securities Regulatory Bureau found that Baiyin Nonferrous Metals violated the Securities Law and the Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Listed Companies, resulting in a warning and a fine of 4 million yuan for the company [2] Executive Penalties - The chairman Wang Pugong was fined 1.5 million yuan, while former general manager Wang Bin and former secretary Sun Long were each fined 1 million yuan [2] - The former financial director Wu Guiyi was fined 800,000 yuan, and the current financial director Xu Dongyang was fined 500,000 yuan, totaling 4.8 million yuan in penalties for the five executives [2] - All executives were aware of the overdue funds but failed to disclose this information and signed off on the annual reports as being true and complete [2] Recent Regulatory Actions - This incident marks the second time Baiyin Nonferrous Metals has faced regulatory scrutiny recently, as the company and some executives received a warning from the Gansu Securities Regulatory Bureau on October 1 for prior accounting errors in financial statements [3] - Financial data indicates that Baiyin Nonferrous Metals experienced a 15.28% year-on-year decline in revenue in the first half of 2025, resulting in a net loss of 217 million yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have long - term upward potential due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing demand from computing power construction, but short - term price increases may suppress downstream demand, leading to a recent trend of oscillatory upward movement [2] - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward in a high - level oscillation. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and suggestions include taking profit on long positions for aluminum and selling out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] - Zinc prices are predicted to oscillate and decline. It is recommended to conduct range trading [2] - Lead prices may rise after consolidation. It is advisable to go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range. It is suggested to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel prices are recommended for range trading [3] - Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation. Range trading is recommended [3] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and range trading or waiting and seeing is advised [3] - Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **10/20 - 10/26 Economic Data**: China's 10 - year LPR remained unchanged, with the five - year at 3.5% and the one - year at 3%. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and September's industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year. UK's September core CPI was 3.5% year - on - year, and the eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.2. US September core CPI rose 3% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase [11] - **China's Economic Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the overall economic operation maintained a stable and progressive trend. In September, social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year [12][13] - **Policy and International Events**: The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's Fourth Plenary Session proposed the 15th Five - Year Plan, aiming to develop future industries. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [14][15] - **US and Eurozone Economic Data**: US September CPI grew 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI's month - on - month increase was 0.2%, the slowest in three months. The eurozone's October composite PMI reached a 1.5 - year high [16][18] - **10/27 - 11/2 Forecasted Economic Data**: Multiple economic data from China, the US, and the eurozone are to be released, including industrial enterprise profits, durable goods orders, and GDP data [20] 3.2 Metal Market Analysis Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose strongly this week, with a 3.68% increase in the weekly line. LME copper approached $11,000 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side disruptions continued, such as the shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine and ongoing strikes at Codelco in Chile. Downstream demand was restricted by price increases [2] - **Recommendation**: Hold a small number of long positions at low prices [2] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum prices showed a high - level upward oscillation, while alumina prices were expected to decline [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity decreased slightly. Downstream processing enterprise start - up rates declined [2] - **Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices for aluminum and sell out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices rose significantly last week but are expected to oscillate and decline [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Refined zinc production is expected to remain high in Q4, while terminal consumption is weak [2] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading [2] Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices reached a recent high and may rise after consolidation [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased, and primary lead consumption demand was strong [2] - **Recommendation**: Go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated and rose last week and are expected to oscillate within a range [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore prices are expected to remain firm, and refined nickel is in a surplus situation [3] - **Recommendation**: Hold short positions moderately at high prices [3] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak [3] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading [3] Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory showed different trends, and the situation of each segment in the photovoltaic industry chain varied [3] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation, and downstream demand is good [3] - **Recommendation**: Wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Copper: Long-term holding ★★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound ★ [1] - Lead: Strong ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound ★ [1] - Aluminum: Strong ★★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish ★★ [1] Report's Core View - The long-term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Short-term fluctuations are affected by factors such as Sino-US relations and geopolitical situations [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with cautious chasing of highs. In the long term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and potential demand growth [1][7]. - Zinc is expected to have limited upside after the short-term macro - policy stimulus fades, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as inventory depletion and cost support [1][14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have improved, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Sino-US relations eased, market risk aversion subsided, and gold and silver prices continued to adjust [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Sino-US negotiations achieved results, US data supported further interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine situation and the French political crisis were complex, and gold is expected to have a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Short - term attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver stop falling. Domestic gold pays attention to the 930 support, and silver pays attention to the effectiveness of the 11000 support [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and the center of gravity continued to move up [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and downstream demand was affected by factors such as real estate and infrastructure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the super macro week, it is recommended to continue to hold copper long positions, be cautious about chasing highs, and use trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long term, copper is still optimistic [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc oscillated narrowly overnight, with insufficient upward momentum [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was loose, demand was weak, and overseas LME zinc inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc continued to rebound, but the overall demand was weak. In the medium - to - long term, it is still a short - side allocation in the sector [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - interest rate cut expectations continued. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the alumina market was in an oversupply pattern [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore supply disturbances weakened, domestic pure nickel inventory increased significantly, and stainless steel market inventory increased, with weak downstream demand [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, encountered resistance and fell back after rising to 81,000, and the gains narrowed at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals improved significantly, with continuous inventory reduction for 10 weeks, strong terminal demand, and a positive feedback loop in the industry was expected to form [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of [78800 - 82000] [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. Due to factors such as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, expected dovish statements from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and tight supply in the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or strong - oscillating trend in the short term [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Supply concerns and optimism about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations pushed up copper prices. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.2% to $10,947/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 87,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 575 to 136,350 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories in some regions also changed. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and an expected dovish statement from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, sentiment is expected to remain positive. Given the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories, copper prices are expected to continue to be strong. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 86,600 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. On Friday, the LME aluminum closed down 0.3% to $2,856/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased, and inventories in some domestic regions and abroad changed. The downstream procurement sentiment weakened [4]. - **Strategy View**: After the production suspension of an overseas aluminum plant and considering the low domestic inventory, improved global trade situation, and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate upward. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,100 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum is 2,830 - 2,880 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,592 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of lead showed different changes. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.61 million tons [7]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore decreased, and the TC of lead concentrate imports declined. The smelting start - up rate and battery start - up rate showed different trends. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot inventory and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of zinc changed. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.21 million tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased slightly, and the TC of zinc concentrate decreased. The smelting profit declined, and the inventory accumulation rate of domestic zinc ingots slowed down. With a high structural risk of LME zinc and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed down 0.42% to 282,550 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and although the start - up rate of smelters increased slightly, it was still at a low level. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the social inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a tight supply - demand balance of tin, and the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Last Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The prices of nickel ore and nickel - iron showed different trends, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the significant inventory pressure of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. In the long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If nickel prices fall enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of imported lithium concentrate also rose [18]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is strong, and the fundamental situation has improved. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the inventory reduction trend may continue until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure from industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 77,800 - 82,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.95% to 2,821 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount, and the overseas price and import profit and loss were stable. The futures inventory remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. Considering the positive market atmosphere and the price approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.35% to 12,810 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and raw - material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: Although the price - support signal from the market is clear, the downstream demand support is weak, and the cost support has declined. The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, so it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose 0.39% to 20,705 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the trading volume increased. The inventory in some regions decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy View**: Progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and strong cost support the price, but due to high warehouse receipts, the upward space of the near - term contract price may be limited [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. Positive signals from China-US negotiations have kept the risk appetite of risk assets at a high level. The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan communique has also received a positive response from the market [1]. - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips due to the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold on dips in the long - term [1]. - For zinc, given the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and look for far - month reverse spread opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the news and macro - aspects [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, the spot market is tight, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term [10]. - For industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [13][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 333, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 977. The LME inventory decreased by 575 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. There are still disturbances in the scrap copper supply in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply disturbances will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the social inventory decreased by 3,860. The LME inventory decreased by 4,550 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat, the demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and there has been seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival and significant destocking after the festival. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but there are uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459. The LME inventory increased by 2,900 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated upwards. The domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. The domestic mine is expected to be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700, and the LME inventory increased by 180 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy has a motive to support prices [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production schedule in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost of ferronickel and ferrochrome remains stable, and the inventory remains at a high level [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 5,368. The LME inventory decreased by 4,375 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The tight spot market has driven up the lead price. The supply side has slow resumption of production, and the demand side has increased battery production but high finished - product inventory. The short - term supply - demand mismatch is serious [6]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the tin position increased by 4,095, and the LME inventory increased by 30 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated. The supply side has marginal improvement after the end of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly supported by rigidity, and the domestic short - term supply - demand is weak [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 215, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 44 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 million tons [13][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 600, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 60 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Similar to industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16].

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the electrolytic aluminum sector is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum sector is characterized by a perfect blend of resilience and dividend value, indicating a revaluation process is underway [1][3] - The sector's average dividend yield is projected to be 6.0% by the end of 2024, ranking it first among major high-dividend industries, with China Hongqiao's yield reaching 13.7% [2][19] - The report emphasizes the transition of the electrolytic aluminum stocks from being viewed as highly cyclical assets to becoming quality scarce assets with both price elasticity and dividend support [9][19] Summary by Sections 1. Current Dividend Yield of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - As of the end of 2024, the weighted average dividend yield for the electrolytic aluminum sector is estimated at 6.0%, leading among high-dividend industries [2][19] - China Hongqiao's dividend yield is notably high at 13.7%, significantly above other industry leaders [20][21] - The overall trend indicates a clear increase in dividend levels across the sector, with many companies raising their dividend guidance for 2025 [24] 2. Sources of Dividend Value Beyond Resilience - The sector's profitability is expected to remain high due to a tightening supply-demand balance, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling [6][28] - The report highlights that the capital expenditure peak has passed, leading to improved asset structure and quality within the sector [45][52] - The transition from a focus on scale expansion to quality enhancement is evident, with a clear path for converting high profits into cash flow and shareholder returns [6][39] 3. Will the Valuation of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Increase? - Historical comparisons with coal and China Hongqiao suggest that the market is willing to assign higher valuations to dividend-paying assets, recognizing their asset quality and stable cash flows [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for leading companies in high-dividend sectors have shown significant improvement since 2023, indicating potential for further valuation increases [4][19] - The overall trend in the sector shows a marked increase in dividend payout ratios, with several companies indicating higher future dividends [24] 4. Stock Selection in the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend companies such as China Hongqiao and Zhongfu Industrial, as well as those with increasing dividend potential like China Aluminum and Shenhuo [5] - The sector is viewed as a combination of offensive aluminum price exposure and defensive dividend asset characteristics, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [5][9]