Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. Steel prices may face pressure before the holiday and could decline after the holiday, but there is a possibility of an increase if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and other factors will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [8][10]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and market expectations are fluctuating [11][13]. - The ferroalloy market is driven by overall commodity sentiment and cost in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Related Information**: The US will impose new high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, and Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners. Shanghai's rebar price is 3290 yuan (+10), and Beijing's is 3190 yuan; Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price is 3400 yuan, and Tianjin's is 3330 yuan [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend at night. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 10820 tons. Five major steel products increased in production overall, with a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils weakened, while that for rebar continued to recover. Steel inventories have reached an inflection point and are starting to decline. However, there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday, and there may be a risk of decline after the holiday, but there is also a chance of price increase if demand recovers beyond expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; for the arbitrage strategy, continue to hold the long 1 - 5 spread and the short hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a 1.8% increase. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased, and the inventory decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased. The prices of coke and coking coal warehouse receipts are provided [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has digested the pre - holiday raw material replenishment logic. The spot market for coking coal is rising, and coke enterprises are proposing a price increase. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can provide some supply. The demand for steel restricts the upside of raw material prices [8][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is a wide - range volatile market in the short term, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, try to enter the long coking coal 1 - 5 spread at low prices; for the options and spot - futures strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Q2 GDP final value increased by 3.8% annually, and the US will impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1. The real - estate bond financing in August decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port are provided [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price dropped slightly at night. The mainstream mines improved in the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas demand remained high. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [11][13]. - **Trading Strategies**: No specific trading strategies are clearly provided in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: The November 2025 quotes of overseas manganese mines to China increased. On the 25th, the silicon - iron spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon and manganese - ore spot prices were slightly weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is high, and the short - term negative feedback risk has eased. For manganese - silicon, the supply is high, and the demand is stable. The cost of manganese - ore is rising, but the upside is limited by high supply [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is strong in the short term but limited by high supply; for the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see; for the options strategy, sell the straddle option combination [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is driven by stable demand and cost support, with a stable supply - demand balance and a trend of oscillating upward prices. In the long term, as production capacity is gradually released and the risk of overcapacity intensifies, the ferrosilicon market may face price adjustment pressure. Investors are advised to seize short - term market fluctuations and pay attention to the impact of power policies and raw material price changes on costs [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background - Since the anti - involution sentiment swept the commodity market, the ferrosilicon price has shown an oscillating upward trend, and production in various regions has gradually recovered. From August to mid - September 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon remained at a historical high, and the operating rate was stable. The weekly output of Ningxia, a major production area, reached a new peak, and the spot price continued to rise. In mid - to late September, the research team conducted a survey on ferrosilicon production in Ningxia, focusing on key production enterprises and warehousing and logistics, to provide data support for industry decision - making and price analysis [8]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Market Research Summary 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon: Stable Capacity Release in Major Production Areas and Tight In - Factory Inventory - Ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas generally use large - capacity electric furnaces for off - peak production. The unit power consumption is 7500 - 8500 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.39 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Most enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation. September was the last month of power subsidies, with a standard subsidy of 0.011 yuan/kWh·month. In October, Ningxia entered the power spot trading month, and most manufacturers believed the trading results would offset the reduction in subsidies. Currently, not all furnaces in Ningxia are operating at full capacity. Some manufacturers are under maintenance, and some operate only 30% of their total capacity. The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is low, with 10 - 20 days of raw materials. Except for large enterprises, the finished product inventory is very low. The sales model in Ningxia is different from that in Inner Mongolia, with a large proportion supplied to futures - cash traders, mainly in a "production by order + trade supply" mode. Most ferrosilicon factories in Ningxia have production orders until early October, and some until the end of October. They purchase raw materials locally. There is no plan to add new production capacity for now, but if the futures price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, some furnaces will resume operation [10]. 3.2.2 Cost Side: Rising Prices of Semi - coke and Electricity in September Support the Bottom of Ferrosilicon Prices - The production cost of ferrosilicon enterprises mainly consists of semi - coke, silica, and electricity, with electricity accounting for the largest proportion. The power cost in August and September increased compared to July but remained stable due to government subsidies. In October, with the end of subsidies and the start of power spot trading, the actual electricity price change is expected to be around 1 cent/kWh. In the short term, the marginal cost fluctuation is mainly in the semi - coke segment. During the research period, the ex - factory price of semi - coke in Fugu was 700 - 710 yuan/ton (plus freight of 110 - 140 yuan/ton). Some enterprises had cost advantages by stocking up at low prices. As of September 26, the price of small - sized semi - coke increased by about 50 yuan/ton, which may increase the ferrosilicon smelting cost by 60 yuan/ton. The silica price at the factory is mostly between 160 - 240 yuan/ton. The comprehensive power consumption is generally 8000 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.41 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Some enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation and power spot trading. The total cost of labor and depreciation is about 450 - 500 yuan/ton. The full cost in Ningxia during the research period was concentrated in the range of 5200 - 5650 yuan/ton. With the current offer of 5800 yuan/ton from HBIS, the profit margin is still tight, and the cost side may continue to support the bottom of ferrosilicon prices [11][13]. 3.2.3 Supply Side: High Elasticity of Capacity Release and Continuous Order Placement - The total designed annual production capacity of the seven surveyed ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia exceeds 1.4 million tons. The furnace types are mainly medium - and large - sized submerged arc furnaces of 33000KVA - 45000KVA, producing both common ferrosilicon and 75 ferrosilicon, with some focusing on low - aluminum and low - titanium ferrosilicon. Driven by profits, some manufacturers said the profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is relatively high. If the futures price fluctuates slightly, future production will focus on 75 ferrosilicon. If the price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, the idle capacity will fully produce common ferrosilicon, increasing supply pressure. Currently, the actual operating rate of most enterprises is lower than the designed full - production level, affected by market prices, power costs, and off - peak policies. The monthly output of the seven enterprises is about 85,000 tons, with an overall operating rate of about 73%, accounting for about 40% of the total output in Ningxia. The downstream orders are stable, and the production orders extend from September to November. Some enterprises have expanded overseas markets through exports. Overall, the production model of enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas is "production by order + low inventory", ensuring stable supply without increasing inventory. The supply side features large capacity, high elasticity of release, and continuous order placement, and can stably meet market demand in the short term [15][16]. 3.2.4 Detailed Research Minutes - **Ningxia A Enterprise**: Main products are common silicon and high - silicon. It has 8 furnaces of 40500KVA and 2 of 16500KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 350,000 tons. Currently, 4 furnaces are operating, and 6 are shut down. Production orders are until the end of September. The raw material inventory is about one month, and it purchases raw materials every half - month. The sales model is mainly futures - cash trading, with an average monthly volume of 4000 tons and long - term contracts of about 2000 tons. The full production cost is 5500 - 5650 yuan/ton [18]. - **Ningxia B Enterprise**: Mainly produces low - aluminum, low - titanium, high - silicon ferrosilicon (70% of capacity) and 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons. Currently, 1 furnace of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA are operating, with a full - production capacity of 160 - 170 tons/day and an off - peak production capacity of 130 - 140 tons/day. There is no inventory in the factory, and it produces by order, ensuring a monthly output of 3000 tons. Current production orders are nearly 25 days. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, supplying low - aluminum, low - titanium ferrosilicon to steel mills such as HBIS at an average monthly volume of 300 - 400 tons, with a price of the HBIS common ferrosilicon tender price plus 900 yuan/ton. It also exports to countries such as Japan and Turkey through the supply chain platform. 75 ferrosilicon is sold to magnesium enterprises for magnesium ingot production. The full production cost of common ferrosilicon is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. - **Ningxia C Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon (adjusts production of 75 ferrosilicon as needed). It has 6 furnaces of 35000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 220,000 tons. Currently, all 6 furnaces are operating without off - peak production, with an average electricity cost of 0.41 - 0.419 yuan/kWh and a monthly output of 18,000 tons. Production orders are until November. If the futures price rises to 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, it will hedge at most one - month's order volume. The sales model is mainly order - based production, with a maximum monthly order volume of 15,000 tons. It currently sells some silicon powder at a price about 600 yuan/ton lower than that of common ferrosilicon [20]. - **Ningxia D Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon. Currently, it operates 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 45000KVA (alternating for off - peak production), with an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons and a current monthly output of 6000 tons. Production orders are until the end of October. The raw material inventory is 10 - 15 days. It requires 50 - 60% advance payment for sales. The comprehensive power consumption is 8000 kWh/ton, and the current electricity cost is 0.41 yuan/kWh. During the spot trading month, it can reach 0.38 yuan/kWh. Waste heat power generation can save 200 - 300 yuan/ton in costs [21]. - **Ningxia E Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon recently. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA. Currently, 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA are operating, with the 25000KVA furnace producing 72 ferrosilicon, and a monthly output of 5000 tons. Production orders are until the end of September, and there is currently 700 - 800 tons of inventory. It has a large inventory of low - price semi - coke. The comprehensive power consumption of 72 is 7800 kWh/ton, and the electricity cost is 0.417 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 is 8100 kWh/ton, and the full production cost is 5580 - 5600 yuan/ton [21]. - **Ningxia F Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA, and currently 1 is operating. The second furnace is expected to start next month. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, with a limited - volume and fixed - price monthly supply of 1500 tons. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 ferrosilicon is 8000 kWh/ton [22]. - **Ningxia G Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 450,000 tons, it mainly produces common ferrosilicon. It has 8 furnaces of 45000KVA and mainly controls raw material and spot inventory. Its in - factory inventory is relatively sufficient compared to others [22]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon Market Expectation: Short - Term Oscillation Upward, Long - Term Overcapacity Warning - The surveyed enterprises generally believe that the main contract of ferrosilicon may be affected by the coking coal market and anti - involution funds, with the futures price oscillating upward, driving up the price of semi - coke and increasing the cost of ferrosilicon. There is a growing call for eliminating backward production capacity, and small - sized furnaces in Qinghai and Inner Mongolia may accelerate the capacity replacement process. However, after the market sentiment stabilizes, high supply and inventory may suppress the futures price. Two points should be continuously monitored: (1) The change in the hot metal output on the steel - making demand side. If the demand in the fourth - quarter peak season remains high and the hot metal output stays at a high level, the ferrosilicon inventory can support consumption. (2) The change in the demand for magnesium. Historically, the supply of magnesium increases in the fourth quarter, supporting the demand for ferrosilicon. Currently, low - price magnesium is scarce. The profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is much higher than that of 72. If the supply of magnesium recovers, some manufacturers may switch to producing 75 ferrosilicon. If the demand for magnesium is lower than expected, the high supply and inventory of 72 ferrosilicon may compress profits and force enterprises to shut down and reduce production [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron alloy market is experiencing a bottom - oscillating trend due to the game between high supply and cost support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Fundamental Situation - **Price Trends**: The report presents various price trend graphs, including the iron alloy main contract trends, spot market prices of 72%FeSi silicon iron in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi), silicon manganese spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi), and the basis trends of silicon iron and silicon manganese main - contract warehouse receipts in Inner Mongolia [8][10][14][17] - **Production and Supply**: Graphs show the production enterprise start - up rates of silicon iron and manganese silicon, monthly production volumes of silicon iron and manganese silicon in China, daily production volumes of crude steel and hot metal, and blast furnace capacity utilization rates [26][28][29][30] - **Inventory Status**: There are graphs depicting the silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories of alloy plants, the average available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon inventories in steel mills, and the warehouse receipt situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [41][51][43] - **Cost Factors**: The report includes price trends of raw materials such as blue charcoal small materials, Yinchuan chemical coke, electricity prices, global manganese ore shipments, manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port, and national manganese ore inventories. It also shows the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon [54][58][63][64][68] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in the given content

2025 年 9 月 26 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 25 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5400-5450，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5300- 5400（-50），内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200，宁夏 6000-6100，青海 6000-6100， 甘肃 6000-6050，内蒙 6100-6150（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070， 75#1120-1150（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5650-5750 元/吨；南方报价 5750-5800 元 /吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 2.铁合金在线：山东某钢厂日照公司敲定硅铁采购价为 5680 元/吨现金，较上一轮跌 60 元/吨，量 550 吨。山东某钢厂硅锰定标 5870 元/吨承兑含税到厂，采购量 1000 吨。山东某钢厂硅锰定标 5950 元/ 吨承兑含税到厂，采购量 3100 吨。 3、铁合金在线：据本网调研统计，内蒙地区 9 月在产硅铁企业 12 家，在产矿热炉 72 台，9 月硅 ...

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年9月26日 全国硅铁周度产量:万吨 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 IS 10 10 8 9 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 1.20 0.45 1.10 0.40 1.00 0.35 0.90 0.80 0.30 一个目标。 2017年 12月 12月 12月 12日 12時 12時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 1000 下されるなど、そこではなくなるとなると、そのことではない。 ここではなかったときになるとことできる。 このことではない。 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 ·2024 ·2025 宁夏-硅锰日均产量:万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found Summary by Category Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on September 26, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5330 and 5380 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -20 and 30. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5786 and 5736, with daily changes of 44 and 28, and weekly changes of 30 and -8 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on September 26, 2025, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5700, 5660, 5730, 5680, and 5680 respectively. The latest price of the main contract was 5938, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -32 [2]. Supply - The report shows long - term trends of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises' output in China (monthly and weekly, with weekly capacity accounting for 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - It also presents the long - term trends of silicon manganese production in China (weekly) from 2021 to 2025 [7]. Demand - The report provides long - term trends of the demand for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, steel - union caliber) from 2021 to 2025 [4][8]. - It also shows the long - term trends of the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 to 2025, as well as the procurement volume and price of FeMn65Si17 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows the long - term trends of the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and the inventory of these enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly) from 2021 to 2025. It also presents the long - term trends of CZCE silicon ferroalloy's total warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily) [6]. - For silicon manganese, the report shows the long - term trends of CZCE silicon manganese's total warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory (daily), as well as the long - term trends of the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2021 to 2025 [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows long - term trends of electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of small - sized blue coke in Shaanxi, the start - up rate of blue coke in China (weekly), the production profit of blue coke in China (daily), and the production cost, profit of folding the main contract, and spot profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025 [6]. - For silicon manganese, the report shows long - term trends of the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (steel - union, yuan/ton), and the profit of folding the main contract of Guangxi silicon manganese from 2021 to 2025 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy futures prices generally rose on September 25. Driven by the overall commodity market sentiment and cost - side factors, the prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [7]. - For silicon ferroalloy, although the short - term negative feedback risk has eased and the overall commodity market sentiment is positive, the problem of high supply still exists [7]. - For manganese silicon, the short - term demand is relatively stable, and the cost - side drives the price to be strong in the short term, but the high supply also restricts the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5786, up 44 (0.77%) daily and 30 weekly, with a trading volume of 201,194 (up 11,513 daily) and an open interest of 188,023 (down 10,222 daily). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5938, up 22 (0.37%) daily and down 32 weekly, with a trading volume of 219,803 (up 50,391 daily) and an open interest of 332,429 (down 1344 daily) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5480, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5700, down 30 daily and 30 weekly. Different regions showed different price changes [4]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 306, down 44 daily and unchanged weekly. For manganese silicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 238, down 52 daily and up 2 weekly. The SF - SM spread was - 152, up 22 daily and 62 weekly [4]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of Australian manganese ore lumps in Tianjin was 39.8, down 0.2 daily and 0.4 weekly. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore from South Africa was 34.2, unchanged daily and down 0.1 weekly. The price of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi was 700, unchanged daily and up 40 weekly [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Driven by the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side, it is strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Sell a straddle option combination [8]. - **Important Information**: United Mining (CML) announced its November 2025 offer to China for Australian lumps (Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%) at 4.65 US dollars per ton - degree, up 0.08 US dollars per ton - degree month - on - month. Comilog's November 2025 offer for Gabonese lumps shipped to China was 4.35 US dollars per ton - degree (up 0.08) [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, basis, inter - month spreads, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, showing data changes over different time periods [11][14][15]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on black building materials dated September 25, 2025, covering various commodities such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.285%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.882224 million lots, an increase of 812 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.508%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,559 tons, a decrease of 292 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.367761 million lots, an increase of 668 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The open interest changed by -7,511 lots to 539,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 856,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.72% [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On September 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued a small rebound, closing up 0.58% at 5,916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the futures [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) also continued to rebound, closing up 0.77% at 5,742 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 58 yuan/ton over the futures [9] Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.06% (+95). The weighted contract open interest changed by -1,424 lots to 508,298 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 180 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -120 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,380 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.23% (+1,120). The weighted contract open interest changed by -2,089 lots to 250,365 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1,120 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Glass - On Wednesday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4.56% (+54). The price of large plates in North China was 1,160 yuan, up 10 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,150 yuan, up 10. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million boxes, a decrease of 675,000 boxes (-1.10%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions increased by 94,955 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 43,450 lots [18] Soda Ash - On Wednesday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,307 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+34). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,217 yuan, up 34. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 28,400 tons, and 749,500 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 13,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions decreased by 2,046 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 23,979 lots [20] Group 3: Strategy Views Steel - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the central bank will maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools. In terms of exports, the volume increased slightly last week but remained weak. Fundamentally, rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure eased marginally; hot-rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and the peak-season demand is not strong. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, rebar demand remains weak, and hot-rolled coil, although having some resilience, is still weak overall. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face downward risk. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [3] Iron Ore - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments of the three major mainstream mines all decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non-mainstream countries also decreased month-on-month. The nearby arrivals increased month-on-month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons, with both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability rate of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased significantly. Some inventory may continue to be transferred to the plant before the National Day. In terms of terminal data, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase, and the inventory slope slowed down. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the pressure on the raw material end from downstream still needs to be observed. Fundamentally, short-term pig iron production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, iron ore prices still have support. Macroscopically, after the China-US presidential call, the market sentiment is relatively positive; the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" continues to increase the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal, reducing the impact of speculative sentiment on prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory depletion speed [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there may be two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the rate cut was in line with expectations, Powell's statement was hawkish, leading to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index also returned to a volatile state. However, the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policy implementation, enhancing the market's expectation of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" sentiment has resurfaced recently, driving the raw material end such as coking coal and ferroalloys to perform relatively actively. However, with the approaching of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory before the National Day holiday, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where the demand has not shown peak-season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high-intensity production driven by profits, and pig iron production continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a continuous inverse seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality [10] - In the short term, affected by the real demand, the black sector may face a downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, the statement of the high-level that "China still has sufficient fiscal policy space," and the opening of domestic policy space after the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, the black sector may gradually become more cost-effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid-October. Compared with the short-term correction risk, looking for long opportunities after the price pullback may be a better choice [11] - In the case of manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, it is observed that the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the price of manganese ore has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens according to the above logic, attention should be paid to whether there are any sudden disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may become the driving force for manganese silicon to launch its own market. Otherwise, it is expected that manganese silicon will be difficult to have an independent strong market in the absence of major contradictions and will follow the black sector market [11] - For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions and driving forces in its supply and demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black sector market, with relatively low operation cost-effectiveness [11] Industrial Silicon - The sentiment in the commodity market improved yesterday, and the industrial silicon futures rebounded. From the perspective of the futures price trend, the price has experienced short-term sharp fluctuations and is relatively unstable, so risk control should be noted. Looking back at the fundamentals, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. After several weeks of continuous growth, the production has slowed down for the first time, but the weekly production is still at a relatively high level close to the same period last year. In the downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high since the industry's self-discipline production control. Whether the high-operating-rate enterprises will start to reduce production in the future is uncertain, but in the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level compared to the same period. The explicit inventory of industrial silicon is generally at a high level, and the marginal depletion amplitude is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has been running at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the price of industrial silicon; at the same time, the "anti-involution" policy leaves room for price improvement in the future. However, for the price to be strongly supported, fundamental improvement is still required. In the short term, the market is affected by capital sentiment, with rapid entry and exit, and the futures price returns to a volatile state. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continues to be dominated by policy narratives, and the short-term market focus remains on the capacity integration policy and the downstream price pass-through progress. Fundamentally, some of the previous inventory has been transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the de-stocking space for the entire industry is limited, which depends on the maintenance situation of the current high-operating-rate enterprises. In terms of price, the previous spot price increase was relatively smooth in the middle and front of the downstream, but there is still a stalemate in the component link, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expected verification cannot be asserted. However, before the final implementation and when there are obstacles in the component link price pass-through, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress for a long time. In the short term, the polysilicon price will continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if the expectations are not fulfilled as scheduled. The intraday price of polysilicon fluctuates greatly and changes rapidly, so attention should be paid to position and risk control, and attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark for the main contract. At the same time, the authenticity of sudden news should be carefully verified [16] Glass - In the afternoon, six departments issued a document to strictly prohibit the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. At the same time, some enterprises announced price increases for glass spot, boosting the futures price to a short-term high. However, the overall terminal demand is still weak, and downstream procurement is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of supply, the adjustment of production lines is limited, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintain stable prices for sales, and actual transactions are flexibly adjusted. The regional inventory performance shows obvious differentiation, with good de-stocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face certain inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy trends, and the short-term view is relatively bullish [19] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with local narrow fluctuations and limited overall price changes. In terms of production, the operation of the devices is generally stable, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted. Among them, the Shandong Haitian device has resumed production, and Tongbai Haijing also plans to gradually resume production in the near future, and the industry output is expected to increase slightly. The demand side shows a flat performance, and downstream enterprises still replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, and most transactions revolve around low-priced goods. Overall, it is expected that the short-term soda ash market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with limited price fluctuation range [21][23]