Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the A-share market has historically spent most of its time below the 3500-point mark, and the focus should not be solely on previous peaks like 6124 and 5178 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index's performance is compared to the US stock market, suggesting that a slow and steady growth ("slow bull") is preferable to irrational spikes seen in 2007 and 2015 [1][3] - The importance of the 3500-point level is highlighted, indicating that if the index can stabilize above this point, it would significantly impact the current market trend [3] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market is likely to accelerate upward, with the index expected to break through 3674 points, and the current market structure does not indicate a top [5] - It is noted that the white liquor sector is currently at a low point, which is seen as a positive factor for the market's potential recovery [3] - The analysis indicates that regardless of potential pullbacks, the overall trend remains upward, and any corrections would be limited in scope [5][7]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

Market Overview - In H1 2025, there were 76 listed private placement projects in the A-share market, a year-on-year decrease of 7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23%[3] - The total fundraising amount reached CNY 695.92 billion, a sixfold increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 91% of equity financing[3] Investor Participation - The average number of participants per project increased to 23, leading to a selection rate of 57.99%[3] - The bidding projects' full fundraising rate rose to 71.43%, a year-on-year increase of 27 percentage points[3] Discount Rates - The average benchmark discount rate and market price discount rate reached new lows at 11.17% and 11.68%, respectively[3] - 16.67% of bidding projects were priced at the floor price, marking the lowest since H1 2024[3] Performance Metrics - The average absolute return for 43 bidding projects that were unlocked was 24.88%, a significant increase of over 29 percentage points year-on-year[3] - 65% of these projects outperformed the Shenwan first-level industry, with an average excess return of 11.60%[3] Future Outlook - The approval pace for new projects is expected to remain steady, with a focus on small-cap stocks, as 58% of existing bidding projects have a total market value of less than CNY 5 billion[3] - The discount rates are anticipated to remain low, with expected ranges of 10% to 15% in H2 2025, influenced by stable supply and increased participation[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance and review progress, changes in market conditions, and fluctuations in secondary market stock prices[3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting towards lower interest rates and a focus on returns, leading to increased attention on high dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Index is becoming an important tool for investors seeking high cash flow and low volatility investments, as the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at historical median levels [1] - The index tracks 30 high dividend yield securities from Hong Kong-listed companies that meet Stock Connect criteria, emphasizing companies with stable dividend capabilities, primarily in traditional sectors like real estate and energy [1] Group 2 - The popularity of domestic dividend strategy ETFs is rising, which raises expectations for the structure, performance, and investability of the index itself [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]

Group 1: Company Debt and Financing - Yuyuan Group plans to issue up to 4 billion yuan in corporate bonds to optimize its debt structure, with a maximum term of 7 years and a face value of 100 yuan per bond [1] - The funds raised will be used for repaying due debts and supplementing working capital, addressing short-term repayment pressure [1] - As of Q1 2025, short-term loans increased by 9.78%, while accounts payable and contract liabilities decreased by 16.92% and 12.75%, respectively [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yuyuan Group's jewelry fashion segment generated 299.77 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 64% of total revenue, but saw an 18.38% year-on-year decline [2] - The company reported a record high revenue of 581.47 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit dropped by 45% to 20.24 billion yuan [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue plummeted nearly 50% to 87.82 billion yuan, with net profit down 71% to 51.8 million yuan [2] Group 3: Business Challenges and Strategies - The jewelry fashion segment faced significant challenges due to price volatility, changing consumer preferences, and pressure on the franchise model, leading to a net reduction of 200 stores [2] - The company acknowledged that structural adjustments in the consumer industry have pressured overall sales margins [2] - Yuyuan Group initiated a "slimming down" strategy, focusing on channel management and gradually exiting heavy asset projects in the real estate sector [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market is primarily driven by key sectors such as banks, liquor, and insurance, which together account for over 40% of the Shanghai Composite Index's weight [1][3] - Despite 4,000 stocks declining, the overall market index rose, indicating that the performance of major sectors can stabilize the index [1] - The index is close to reaching a new high, with only 10 points away, and a recovery in any of the key sectors could lead to this milestone [3] Group 2 - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with no significant logic for a pullback as long as key sectors like liquor do not accelerate in their rise [3][5] - The upcoming earnings disclosures for mid-cap stocks may lead to a shift in market dynamics, with many investors potentially missing out on opportunities [5] - Understanding the banking sector's logic is crucial, as misconceptions about its performance can lead to missed investment opportunities [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing PMI improved in June, with large - scale enterprises above the critical point and medium - scale enterprises showing an upward trend, while small - scale enterprises declined [1]. - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly [3]. - Attention should be paid to the implementation of overseas tax policies, where overseas investors can enjoy tax credits under certain conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production Industry - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Service Industry - Three departments issued a tax credit policy for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits from 2025 to 2028 [1]. 3.3 Upstream - Energy: International oil prices dropped significantly year - on - year [2]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have recently rebounded [2]. 3.4 Midstream - Chemical industry: The polyester operating rate has declined [3]. 3.5 Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low [3]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. 3.6 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries have shown different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry was 57.07 BP this week, with a certain change compared to the previous period [46]. 3.7 Key Industry Price Indicators - Prices of various industries have different trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $65.5 per barrel on June 30, down 11.27% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 5.6 yuan per kilogram, down 3.93% year - on - year [47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the trading density of the new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical sectors in the Hong Kong stock market is currently very high, while the AI industry chain has significantly declined, indicating a shift from overheated sectors to value areas [1][4] - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market this year, driven by sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have seen significant price movements during various market events [2][4] - A recent analysis by CICC suggests that if investors had accurately timed each style rotation since last year's bull market began, they could have achieved over 110% excess returns compared to the Hang Seng Index, highlighting the strength of structural trends in the Hong Kong market [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology Index has performed significantly better than the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a year-to-date increase of 29.23% compared to 19.55% for the latter, indicating a robust performance in the technology sector [4] - The Hong Kong Technology Index includes 50 constituent stocks, covering various sectors such as AI technology, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, allowing it to benefit from structural market trends [7] - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) has seen a cumulative increase of 26.34% this year, making it a strong investment option with good liquidity and T+0 trading capabilities [7][9]

一周的行情结束了，周线收阳，月线收阳，年线收阳。挣不到利润的人，永远在抱怨市场的问题…… 如果大盘指数上涨都挣不到钱的人，他们有什么信心在大盘指数下跌的时候挣钱，上涨挣不到钱，下跌也挣不到钱，横盘更挣不到钱的人，为什么还不退出 股市，话有点难听，但是道理不虚。如果不能在股市挣钱，说明这里不值得你努力！ 系好安全带 美国与伊朗紧张关系再度升级！特朗普发出威胁 以色列：正制定对伊行动新计划 又开始了，伊朗不会平静，资本不想他们平静就会继续打下去。这件事情又对行情造成悬念了，可以借利空再次洗盘。 上周末的情绪很悲观，都认为会暴跌的情况下，反而让很多人卖在最低点附近了，错过了连续的普涨行情。 如果你相信有牛市，只需要系好安全带，死活不卖！捂股如守寡，守到它的花期为止。一笔交易挣几年的利润，这就是投资的魅力。虽然连续亏损几个月， 一旦行情启动了，一周时间上涨几十点。 很多个股是如此，目前连大盘指数都是如此，关键是大多数人熬不过时间，系不紧安全带，就是想着进进出出。被套了，如果没有技术的情况下，躺平坐电 梯是最好的策略。 不出意外，下周的预测是见底回升，大概率会再次惯性下跌，之后白酒、地产护盘拉升，接替银行的上涨。 大盘 ...