Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to several key factors, including a weak US dollar and a US interest rate cut cycle benefiting metals [1] - Key demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - Supply constraints for copper and aluminum are expected to continue, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The preferred investment stocks include aluminum companies, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times, and a "buy" outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - The company holds a neutral view on coal and a bearish outlook on solar energy and construction materials (such as steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] - Key stocks that are expected to underperform the market include Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel Group (00347), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Resources (01205) experienced a significant stock price increase following the announcement of a major transaction involving the sale of American Aluminum shares [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CITIC Resources resumed trading in the afternoon, initially rising over 21% and closing with a gain of 9.76% at HKD 0.45, with a trading volume of HKD 11.2468 million [1] Group 2: Transaction Details - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, CRA, executed a series of on-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange on January 14 and 15, selling 3.8166 million American Aluminum depositary receipts, equivalent to approximately 1.45% of the total issued shares of American Aluminum, at an average price of USD 64.75 per share [1] - The total transaction amount for the sale was approximately USD 247 million [1] Group 3: Financial Impact - Following the sale, the cumulative proceeds related to the sold American Aluminum depositary receipts amounted to approximately USD 74.64 million [1] - The company plans to utilize the proceeds for general working capital and as a reserve for potential future investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Resources announced the sale of 3.82 million American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of Alcoa at an average price of $64.75 per share, representing 1.45% of Alcoa's total issued shares, indicating a strategic timing for the sale [1] Group 1 - The sale was conducted through a series of on-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange [1] - Citic Resources' stock will resume trading at 1 PM Hong Kong time [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid rise in aluminum prices may suppress consumption and create a short - term negative feedback loop. Although the short - term fundamentals show limited positive signs, macro - factors will drive long - term price increases [6]. - The spot price of alumina is slightly declining, with weakening market sentiment. The cost support is weakening, the supply is in surplus, and there is no strong support for price increases [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - On January 15, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, a change of - 480 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 130 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, with the spot premium/discount changing - 50 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,220 yuan/ton, a change of - 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,610 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,780 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 766,880 lots, and the holding volume was 346,831 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 736,000 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 138,083 tons, a change of 4,518 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 490,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 15, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,804 yuan/ton, closed at 2,789 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,761 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 618,962 lots, and the holding volume was 508,785 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 15, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is fluctuating at a high level, suppressing consumption and potentially creating a short - term negative feedback. The current stockpiling speed is fast due to the late Spring Festival this year, and it is difficult for prices to decline in the short term. However, macro - factors are the main drivers for long - term price increases [6]. Alumina - The spot market price is slightly declining, the market sentiment is weakening, and the basis is narrowing. The cost support is weakening, and the supply is in surplus, with the possibility of inventory over - capacity in the future [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Aluminum - neutral; Alumina - cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Resources (01205) announced the sale of 3.8166 million American depositary receipts (ADRs) of Alcoa Corporation, representing approximately 1.45% of Alcoa's total issued shares, for a total transaction amount of approximately $247 million [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The sale was executed through a series of on-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange at an average price of $64.75 per share [1] - Prior to the sale, the group held approximately 3.03% equity in Alcoa [1] - The cumulative gain from the sold ADRs is approximately $74.64 million [1] Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The company believes this is an appropriate time to liquidate its stake in Alcoa, considering recent trading prices and to improve liquidity and balance its investment portfolio [1] - The proceeds from the sale are intended for general working capital and as a reserve for potential future investments [1] Group 3: Market Impact - The company has applied to the Stock Exchange for the resumption of trading of its shares starting from January 16, 2026, at 1:00 PM [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Resources (01205) announced the sale of 3.8166 million American depositary receipts (ADRs) of Alcoa Corporation, representing approximately 1.45% of Alcoa's total issued shares, for a total transaction amount of approximately $247 million [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The sale will occur through a series of on-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange on January 14 and 15, 2026, at an average price of $64.75 per share [1] - Prior to the sale, CITIC Resources held approximately 3.03% equity in Alcoa, classified as financial assets through other comprehensive income [1] Group 2: Rationale and Use of Proceeds - The company believes this is an appropriate time to liquidate its stake in Alcoa, considering recent trading prices and to improve liquidity and balance its investment portfolio [1] - After the sale, the cumulative gain related to the sold Alcoa ADRs is approximately $74.64 million [1] - The proceeds from the sale are intended for general working capital and as a reserve for potential future investments [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移且偏弱运行，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2][4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位运行，宏观推动暂缓、基本面支撑偏弱，但资金看涨情绪未冷却，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，多数1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] - 观点为震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] 铝锭 -宏观上美国就业市场稳健，市场预计美联储1月27 - 28日会议维持利率不变，特朗普决定暂不对关键矿物征关税，资金对白银、铜、铝等看多情绪降温 [3] -北方铝土矿复产初期生产节奏慢，国产矿石供应偏紧格局有望逐步缓解，两会后生产节奏预计加快；南方国产矿生产无明显变动；截至本周四氧化铝厂铝土矿库存环比增加70.36万吨；氧化铝价格走弱，氧化铝厂对铝土矿溢价采购意愿低，预计国产矿价格仍有下行空间 [4] -本周国内铝下游加工各版块龙头企业开工率分化，受春节临近成品备库需求影响，开工率环比微升0.2个百分点至60.2%，高位铝价抑制下游消费与行业开工回升 [4] - 1月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存73万吨，较上周一同比上涨4.6万吨 [4] - 观点为预计价格短期高位运行，关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (2788.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising over 8% to reach a new high of 27.6 HKD, with a cumulative increase of over 80% since its listing, and its market capitalization briefly exceeding 57 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream of the aluminum industry chain, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [1] - The company has plans to invest in a comprehensive aluminum industry chain project in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with Innovation Group and Innovation New Materials [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Since 2026, the price of electrolytic aluminum has significantly increased, and the overall supply-demand tightness is expected to persist [1] - Despite cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors, the long-term trend indicates a further upward shift in electrolytic aluminum profit margins, suggesting a continuation of the industry's high-profit cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026 [1]

创新实业（02788）午前股价上涨7.98%，现报27.34港元，成交额6408.12万港元。 2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。华泰证券指出，26年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立，因此，尽管当前 电解铝下游采购情绪偏谨慎，但不改变中长期电解铝利润中枢进一步上移趋势，行业高利润周期有望延 续。在此预期下，我们持续看好26H1电解铝板块公司利润进一步走阔。 值得注意的是，2025年3月，创新实业规划与创新集团、创新新材等共同投资沙特红海铝产业链综合项 目。国联民生证券表示，创新实业能源-氧化铝-电解铝一体化布局，电解铝产能分布在能源成本具备优 势的内蒙地区，未来随着绿电并网发电，电解铝成本有望进一步下降。公司走向海外在沙特扩张电解铝 产能，我们认为公司将成为行业内稀有的有电解铝增量的标的。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 客户端 创新实业（02788）午前股价上涨7.98%，现报27.34港元，成交额6408.12万港元。 2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。华泰证券指出，26年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立，因此，尽管当前 电解 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) maintains a "buy" rating due to the upward trend in aluminum prices, which have reached a high of 24,000 yuan, driven by supply disruptions from the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique and the narrative of aluminum replacing copper [1] - The overseas supply disruptions are intensifying, with the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique set to officially close in March 2026 due to rising electricity costs, leading to long-term challenges for overseas aluminum production capacity [1] - The aluminum market is entering a tight supply cycle, with domestic production nearing its ceiling and expected growth in global demand for electrolytic aluminum averaging about 1.8 million tons per year from 2023 to 2025, with a CAGR of 2.5% [3] Group 2 - China’s electrolytic aluminum companies are becoming globally competitive, with China Hongqiao expected to see significant shareholder returns as aluminum prices rise, potentially increasing EPS by about 30% for every 10% increase in aluminum prices [4] - China Hongqiao's integrated advantages ensure stable high profitability, with plans to continue transferring production capacity to Yunnan and a commitment to maintaining stable dividend levels, having increased its payout ratio from nearly 45% in 2019 to 63% in 2024 [5] - The company is expected to see a significant reduction in capital expenditures starting in 2026, leading to improved free cash flow and further potential for dividend growth [5]