Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.01% as of July 7, 2025 [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227.SZ) saw an increase of 0.37%, with a latest price of 1.098 yuan and a trading volume of 0.28 billion yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 6.99% [1] - The fund has recorded net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 37.52 million yuan, totaling 175 million yuan in net inflows, averaging 24.99 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a strong military attribute, with 98.2% of the index comprising military-related sectors, making it the highest military content index in the market [2] - The index has a significant focus on aerospace equipment, with a weight of 66.5%, surpassing both the CSI Military and CSI National Defense indices [2] - This ETF provides investors with an efficient way to capture core military aerospace opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2025 marks the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a structural reversal in industry demand expected to continue until 2027 [1] - The military industry chain's upstream enterprises, which have a high asset securitization rate, have seen significant order growth since the Spring Festival, leading to a notable increase in stock prices from mid-February to mid-April [1] - Following a peak in orders for upstream component companies, stock prices have retreated since mid-April, while themes related to military trade exports, weaponry, deep-sea technology, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy have experienced high-frequency rotations since May [1] Group 2 - The upcoming September 3 military parade is expected to catalyze sentiment in the military industry sector due to its grand scale and high media attention [1] - The military ETF (512660) tracks the China Securities Military Index, which includes representative listed companies in the defense and military industry, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [1] - The index covers multiple subfields within the national defense and military industry, showcasing high industry concentration and distinct military characteristics [1]

Core Insights - Molybdenum, a metal 65 times rarer than lithium, is crucial for various industrial applications and is predominantly found in China, which holds 38.7% of the world's molybdenum reserves [1][3]. Industry Overview - Molybdenum has a high melting point of 2620°C and is essential in enhancing the strength of steel alloys, with just 0.15% addition increasing strength by 30% [3]. - The metal is used in high-temperature applications, such as rocket engines, and in medical imaging technologies, showcasing its versatility [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The price of molybdenum surged to over 3200 yuan per ton in 2023, nearly tripling in six years, driven by a 19% drop in Chilean production and a 9.5% increase in Chinese output [5]. - China's implementation of export controls starting next year is expected to create urgency among international buyers, potentially leading to a 40% price increase [5]. Technological Advancements - Recent breakthroughs in chip technology using molybdenum disulfide have led to the development of flexible chips with significantly lower power consumption compared to silicon chips, paving the way for advanced applications in human-machine integration [5][7]. - Chinese engineers are innovating in the production of molybdenum thin films for flexible displays, indicating a shift towards high-tech applications of this metal [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese stock market, particularly the A-share and Hong Kong markets, with an emphasis on asset revaluation strategies for 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: In the first half of 2025, the A-share market exhibited structural differentiation, with sectors like AI, new consumption, and robotics performing well. The Hong Kong market saw a rise of approximately 20%, transitioning from a dividend bull market to an AI bull market [1][4]. - **Optimistic Outlook for H2 2025**: The outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with recommendations to invest in both emerging assets and traditional economic sectors, which are expected to face upward revaluation trends [1][5][6]. - **Focus on New Growth Areas**: Emphasis on autonomous and controllable sectors such as military and semiconductor industries, alongside a gradual clearing of traditional sectors like finance, banking, insurance, and brokerage [1][6][8]. - **Policy Expectations**: Despite potential fundamental pressures in Q3, the overall sentiment remains positive for the Chinese market, with expectations of a loosening credit policy if export growth declines significantly [1][7]. - **Valuation Discrepancies**: The report highlights a significant PE gap (20-40 points) between leading Chinese AI companies and their counterparts in the Nasdaq, indicating substantial room for growth in domestic tech stocks [1][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **New Consumption Trends**: The revaluation of new consumption is informed by Japan's macroeconomic environment over the past 30 years, focusing on the consumption habits of Generation Z in China, which are expected to drive future market performance [1][11]. - **Red Code Concept**: This concept combines characteristics of dividend and blue-chip stocks, identifying traditional blue-chip stocks with enhanced dividend potential, particularly in logistics, condiments, film, and engineering machinery sectors [2][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key recommended sectors include electronics, computing, communications, metals, machinery, military, and pharmaceuticals, covering 20 sub-sectors and 30 to 50 stocks [1][10]. Future Market Outlook - The annual strategy maintains a bullish perspective, with expectations of improved risk appetite in Q4. The three main revaluation directions are growth, new consumption, and traditional economy, with a focus on autonomous sectors and internationalized new consumption stocks [1][13].

廖市无双：分歧渐生，本轮上涨终点在哪里？20250706 摘要 Q&A 今年银行板块的表现如何？浙商证券对银行板块的投资策略是什么？ 今年银行板块表现非常出色，早在年初就被纳入浙商证券的十大金股名单中， 并在 5 月份进一步加大了配置比例。5 月 12 日和 18 日两次电话会议中建议投 资者切换部分资产到大金融领域，包括银行。从那时起，银行板块走势非常漂 亮。经过深入研究，发现银行可能处于牛市中段，因此继续推荐该板块。 当前市场分歧主要体现在哪些方面？ 当前市场分歧主要体现在两个方面：一是对市场强弱的判断，有人认为市场强 劲，有人认为涨势乏力；二是对板块轮动速度和热点的看法，有人认为市场不 断有新热点出现，总有赚钱效应，而另一部分人则认为热点不多，轮动速度太 快，没有明确主线。这些分歧反映了投资者对当前市场状况的不确定性。 当前市场热点包括家电、电力、工程试验、煤炭等偏红利的板块，但这 些热点并非主升浪性质，仅为小突破。综合金融和科技板块出现一定程 度回吐，表明当前行情并非主升段行情。 未来一个季度甚至半年，消费、成长和金融这三个行业风格预计将居于 前列。无风险利率下降、美联储预期降息以及国内产业景气状态企 ...

Economic Data Release - China will release several important economic data this week, including June CPI, June PPI, July foreign exchange reserves, and July social financing data [1] - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period is about to end, and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [1] Stock Market Developments - This week, a total of 50 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of approximately 37.619 billion yuan. The top three stocks by market value of released shares are Lingyun Guang (5.952 billion yuan), Haohua Technology (4.263 billion yuan), and Weike Technology (3.636 billion yuan) [2] Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft business rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which includes detailed processes for account management, funding, and settlement [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures regarding government procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, requiring that non-EU companies' products must not exceed 50% of the total contract amount for certain procurement projects [5] Aviation Industry Initiatives - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on the development and regulation of these sectors [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and encourages local governments to implement precise policies to promote healthy development [7] Electricity Demand Surge - China's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, driven by high temperatures, marking an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [8] Oil Production Increase - Eight major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, adjusting their output based on current market conditions [9] New Tariffs Announcement - U.S. President Trump announced that new tariffs will likely be implemented starting August 1, with rates potentially reaching up to 70% [10] Stock Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation, with a focus on industry logic as half-year reports approach. High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor [14] - The market is cautiously optimistic for July, with expectations for steady upward movement in the index amid various influencing factors [14][15]

Group 1 - The "Great Beauty" Act, signed by Trump on July 4, 2023, will lead to further fiscal easing in the U.S., providing short-term support for economic growth but potentially causing secondary inflation risks and delaying Fed rate cuts, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability [1][10][12] - The final version of the "Great Beauty" Act has a larger deficit compared to the House version, with changes including the removal of Clause 899, an increase in the federal debt ceiling, and tightened conditions for Medicaid eligibility [1][10] - The Act is expected to have significant long-term effects across various industries, providing tax and subsidy advantages to traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors while cutting benefits for clean energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and food sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The Act will allow for the resumption of oil and gas leasing auctions on public lands and waters, and it maintains policies for real estate companies to fully deduct property improvement costs [11] - A budget of approximately $150 billion will be allocated over the next five years for large military projects, including shipbuilding and missile defense systems [11] - The semiconductor industry will see an increase in tax credits from 25% to 35% for new factories built in the U.S., with projects needing to commence by the end of 2026 [11] Group 3 - The "Great Beauty" Act represents a significant expansion of U.S. fiscal policy, which may require rate cuts to support this expansion amid high deficits and debt concerns [12][15] - The current fiscal expansion differs from previous cycles due to unexpected fiscal growth, changes in economic fundamentals, tariff uncertainties, and cracks in dollar credit [12][15] - The narrative around major asset classes is expected to fluctuate between "economic weakness," "data resilience," and "fiscal risk," impacting pricing for U.S. Treasuries, equities, the dollar, gold, and oil [15]

激浊扬清，周观军工 第126期： 93阅兵是新域新质力量的大舞台 长江证券研究所国防军工研究小组 2025-07-06 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 王贺嘉 分析师 王清 分析师 杨继虎 分析师 张晨晨 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524050001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524080007 SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 分析师 张飞 联系人 李麟君 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525060003 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 回顾十八大以来阅兵展现国防成就， 新装备亮相有望牵引板块独立行情 02 国防军工行业2025年中期投资策略， 长期重视盈利驱动且兼顾主题投资 03 深海科技：UUV领航新质装备发展， 未来十年美军市场或超五百亿美元 04 商业航天：优质频谱资源争夺日臻 激烈，国内申报星座有望加速落地 目 录 05 十四五务期必成：甄选 ...

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

Group 1: Overview of the "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies[1] - The bill includes tax cuts, increased spending on immigration enforcement, expanded defense spending, and cuts to welfare and renewable energy subsidies[1] - The overall deficit scale ranks among the highest since World War II, second only to the 1981 Reagan tax cuts when measured as a percentage of GDP[1] Group 2: Economic Effects - The bill is projected to moderately boost U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028, potentially reaching 0.8 percentage points[2] - The lowest 10% of income households may see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits, while the highest 10% could experience an average income increase of 2.3%[2] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced tax credits[2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bond Liquidity - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with manageable macroeconomic conditions, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate for next year is around 0.7%, potentially reaching approximately 7%[3] - The federal government's leverage ratio is anticipated to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the risk of a sovereign debt crisis remains low[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.3%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99[4] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions raises concerns about potential tariff escalations, with about 20 countries facing the possibility of reinstated tariffs[4]