Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production capacity output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production - sales ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On September 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 fluctuated strongly, closing at 1,287 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.25%, with a daily reduction of 9,350 lots [7] - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate slowed down, and the inventory reduction amplitude decreased. The weak fundamental pattern remained unchanged. The weekly production of soda ash rose to 761,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.24%. However, the domestic soda ash industry still faced the situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the factory inventory continued to decline to 1.7975 million tons, 24,600 tons less than last Thursday, it was still at a high level. On the demand side, the shipment performance of Chinese soda ash enterprises declined slightly this week, with a total shipment volume of 785,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 103.23%, also showing a downward trend, a month-on-month decrease of 2.81 percentage points. Macroscopically, there was no new policy information to alleviate the involution in the soda ash industry, and the possibility of relevant policies being implemented in the short term was relatively low [8] - In summary, the oversupply and inventory accumulation of soda ash could not be alleviated in the short term, and it was difficult to make a breakthrough. At the same time, the overall industry capacity was further increasing, and the pattern of oversupply in the market was difficult to improve effectively. Downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass was relatively stable; the production and sales of photovoltaic glass were good recently. On the one hand, the fourth quarter was the traditional peak season for photovoltaic installation, and on the other hand, the expected increase in natural gas prices in winter would push up the production cost of photovoltaic glass. Therefore, downstream products might form a slight support for the soda ash price. It was expected that the futures price would fluctuate. In the absence of substantial positive factors, subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8] Glass - Fundamentally, in early September 2025, the domestic photovoltaic glass market saw a significant price increase, driven by strong demand. On the one hand, market expectations were released in advance, laying the foundation for demand release in September. On the other hand, with the approaching holiday, component enterprises generally planned to stock up in late September to ensure production continuity after the holiday, amplifying the market demand for photovoltaic glass in September [9] - For float glass, the supply-side pressure was marginally relieved compared with last year, and the cost side had certain support, but the demand side was weak, and it was difficult to make a significant breakthrough in the short term. The demand for new house glass continued to decline, but the production of automobiles and home appliances increased, supporting the glass demand. In the future, the main glass futures contract would show a short-term fluctuating and strengthening trend [10] Group 3: Data Overview - The report provides data on the trading of soda ash and glass futures on September 11, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, change rate, open interest, and open interest change [7] - It also presents charts on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][17][19]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have not changed significantly. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main production areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high levels; if the supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of Panjingxing, which decreased by 8.06% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 22.22% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, with Thailand's production increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreasing by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库率 of warehouses increased due to downstream holiday stocking, and there is still an expectation of further inventory reduction [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be at a low level. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not shown an obvious improvement trend. After entering the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of volatile bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - **Supply**: Last week, the total arrival volume at 12 ports was about 170,000 cubic meters, a record low for the year. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships from last week, and the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [3]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume last week decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters. As of September 5, the average daily shipment volume of logs was 61,200 cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will lift the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. From the supply - demand side, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but also pay attention to the inventory and warehouse receipts while production increases. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of SI4210, which increased by 38.46% [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5032.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production in the current period was 385,700 tons, an increase of 14.01% from the previous period. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory increased by 0.37%, and the order - form inventory increased by 0.10% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. The silicon wafer production plan has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Since late August, downstream players have carried out obvious inventory replenishment, and the price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by the downstream, with a smooth spot price transmission mechanism. In the follow - up, the futures market pays less attention to the fundamentals and more to policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type granular silicon also remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type materials decreased by 61.80% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, an increase of 0.73% from the previous week; the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, an increase of 3.31% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, an increase of 23.31% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume increased by 40.30%, and the export volume increased by 5.96% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The futures market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or production reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. Follow the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the price rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market had good trading this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, the news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is to be determined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for production resumption and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the inventory in the middle reaches has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply - demand, the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity glass has remained low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Follow the implementation of policies in different regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches approaching the peak season. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 12, the price of glass 2505 was 1282 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the price of glass 2509 was 686 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash 2505 was 1359 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1168 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, down 1.24% from the previous day. The weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 1.25%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 0.38% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous period; the growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, particularly the soda ash sector, is entering a new downward price cycle due to increased production capacity and other factors, leading to negative profit margins for the industry by 2024 [1][3]. Supply Side - Soda ash production capacity accelerated in 2023, surpassing 40 million tons (up 19.5% year-on-year), with projections to reach 43.45 million tons in 2024, marking a 24.6% increase over two years [4]. - The production volume is also expected to rise, reaching 36.21 million tons in 2024 (up 21.4% year-on-year), the highest growth rate since 2007 [4]. - The structure of production capacity is changing significantly, with the proportion of natural soda ash increasing from 5% in 2022 to 16% in 2024, and further to 19% in the first seven months of 2025 [4]. - Major contributors to this increase include projects from companies like Boyuan Chemical and China Salt Chemical, which leverage the cost advantages of natural soda ash [4]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with flat glass accounting for 46% of apparent consumption in 2024, translating to 35.96 million tons [2]. - The real estate sector is a significant factor affecting demand, with construction area declining by 12.7% year-on-year in 2024, impacting flat glass demand negatively [5]. - However, automotive glass demand is providing some support, with a 10.5% increase in vehicle production in the first seven months of 2025 [6]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations but is expected to maintain long-term growth, with production projected to reach 27.34 million tons in 2024 (up 30.92% year-on-year) [6]. Competitive Landscape - The cost differences among various production methods are significant, with natural soda ash having the lowest unit cost at approximately 1000-1200 RMB/ton in 2024, compared to 1400-1600 RMB/ton for the joint alkali method and 1500-1700 RMB/ton for the ammonia-soda method [6]. - Regions rich in natural soda ash and raw materials, such as Inner Mongolia and Henan, have a clear cost advantage, which is expected to influence the competitive dynamics in the industry [6]. Industry Outlook - The industry is facing pressure to optimize supply, with a focus on phasing out high-cost production methods and controlling low-level capacity expansion [7]. - Demand recovery is anticipated through potential easing of real estate policies and a return to growth in the photovoltaic sector [7]. - Policy guidance is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency standards and promoting the development of green production methods like natural soda ash [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xinda Securities indicates a significant decline in soda ash prices, leading to negative industry profits and substantial performance drops for listed companies by 2025 [1][3]. Supply Side - Soda ash production capacity accelerated growth in 2023, surpassing 40 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and expected to reach 43.45 million tons in 2024 [4]. - The production structure is changing, with natural soda ash's share increasing from 5% in 2022 to 19% in the first seven months of 2025 [4]. - Natural soda ash has a cost advantage due to its simple process and low energy consumption, maintaining full production even during price declines [4][6]. Demand Side - The real estate downturn is the primary factor affecting flat glass demand, with construction area declining by 12.7% in 2024 [5]. - However, automotive glass demand is providing some support, with vehicle production increasing by 10.5% in the first seven months of 2025 [5]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations but is expected to maintain long-term growth, with production projected to reach 2,734 million tons in 2024 [5]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) challenge, requiring supply optimization, demand stimulation, and policy guidance to improve the situation [7]. - The report suggests that high-cost production methods should be phased out to control low-level capacity expansion [7]. Investment Opportunities - In light of the industry's bottom characteristics, companies with cost advantages, such as Boyuan Chemical and Zhongyan Chemical, are recommended for attention [8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the soda ash industry, highlighting significant cost advantages for companies with natural soda ash production capabilities, such as Boyuan Chemical and Zhongyan Chemical [7][11]. Core Insights - The soda ash industry is experiencing a downward price trend, with significant impacts on profitability and operational performance of listed companies. The report emphasizes the need for industry optimization and potential recovery through demand stimulation and policy support [7][11]. - The supply side is undergoing structural changes, with natural soda ash production increasing its share significantly, which is expected to dominate future capacity expansions [4][12]. - Demand pressures are evident from the real estate sector's decline and short-term fluctuations in the photovoltaic glass market, although long-term growth potential remains [5][13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Soda ash prices have been on a continuous decline for seven consecutive quarters, with heavy losses reported across the industry. The price of heavy soda ash peaked at 3681 CNY/ton in October 2021 and fell to a range of 1335-1349 CNY/ton by August 2025 [3][21][22]. Supply Side - The production capacity of soda ash has accelerated, surpassing 40 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. By 2024, capacity is expected to reach 43.45 million tons, with natural soda ash accounting for a growing share of total production [4][36][64]. - The share of natural soda ash in total production capacity increased from 5% in 2022 to 19% in 2025, driven by new projects from companies like Boyuan Chemical [4][12][50]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with flat glass accounting for 46% of total consumption in 2024. The photovoltaic glass sector is also growing, contributing to a significant portion of soda ash demand [15][66]. - The real estate sector's downturn has negatively impacted flat glass demand, while the automotive sector has provided some support. The photovoltaic glass market is facing short-term challenges but is expected to recover in the long term [5][13][66]. Cost Structure - The cost structure of soda ash production varies significantly by production method, with natural soda ash having the lowest unit cost at approximately 1000-1200 CNY/ton, compared to 1400-1600 CNY/ton for the synthetic methods [6][35]. Industry Outlook - The report outlines a potential path for the industry to counteract the current downward trends through supply optimization, demand recovery, and policy guidance aimed at promoting energy efficiency and the development of green production methods [7][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is cautious, with coking coal and coke oscillating. Glass and soda ash are oscillating weakly due to the downward shift of cost support [1]. - For silicon - based ferroalloys, the profit in production areas is poor, and ferroalloys are oscillating [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: - Glass futures oscillated downward yesterday. The main 2601 contract dropped 1.5%. Spot sales data was okay, and futures were at a premium to the spot. Factory inventories were fluctuating slightly at a high level, and there were still supply - demand contradictions. Short - term premium on the futures market suppressed prices [1]. - Soda ash futures also oscillated downward. The main 2601 contract dropped 0.47%. The procurement sentiment was cautious, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. Soda ash production was at a high level and new capacity was to be launched in the fourth quarter, and consumption was expected to weaken further. The premium on the futures market also suppressed prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicon - based Ferroalloys - **Market Analysis**: - Silicomanganese's main contract closed at 5854 yuan/ton yesterday. A major Hebei Steel plant's first - round inquiry price for September silicomanganese was 5800 yuan/ton, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cost of manganese ore was firm. Although downstream demand was resilient, supply - demand pressure was high due to high production [3]. - Ferrosilicon's main futures contract closed at 5628 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was average. Ferrosilicon enterprises' production was stable, and the cost had no significant fluctuations. Factory inventories had risen to a high level, suppressing prices. The industry's supply - demand was relatively loose, but production areas were in the red, and production release was relatively restrained [3]. - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The improvement of fundamentals and policy expectations help the sector stabilize periodically. The rapid recovery of hot metal output after the parade boosts the demand for furnace materials, supporting steel prices. Steel enterprises' rapid resumption of production and frequent policy expectations on the supply - side jointly lead to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2]. - The short - term prices of most varieties in the black building materials sector are expected to oscillate. Although there are some supporting factors, there are also limitations and uncertainties in demand and supply [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The main futures prices of the sector oscillated strongly yesterday, and the night - session prices oscillated. The statements in the NDRC report triggered small fluctuations in the market. The resumption of production by steel enterprises and policy expectations on the supply - side led to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2] 2. Raw Material Analysis Iron Element - In terms of iron ore, port maintenance led to a significant decline in Brazilian shipments, but the impact on annual shipments is expected to be small. The current demand has returned to the level before the parade restrictions, supporting iron ore demand. However, the peak - season demand for finished products needs to be continuously verified, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices leads to low electric - furnace profits, but resources are still tight, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - The recovery of steel mills' imported ore consumption to the pre - parade level indicates the recovery of hot metal production. Steel mills still have restocking demand before the National Day, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating. The recovery of coal mines is slower than that of downstream hot metal, and safety accidents continue to disrupt the coal - mine production increase rhythm. Under this supply - demand pattern, coal - mine inventories are being depleted at a low level, and there is still restocking expectation downstream before the National Day, so the coking coal price is expected to be supported [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, a new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [4] 3. Individual Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is average, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are weak, especially for building materials. Although the cost side has support and there is restocking demand during the peak season, it is expected that the performance of rebar will be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils [8] Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil. The demand has support in the short term as the small - sample hot metal output has recovered. The overall inventory level is moderate. The demand is expected to recover, and steel enterprises' inventories are at a low level, but the peak - season demand for finished products has not been verified, so the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8][9] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased this week. The pressure on finished product prices led to low electric - furnace profits, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - flow processes decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - The first - round price cut has been implemented, but the coking profit is still considerable, and the supply has basically returned to normal. After the parade, steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, and they maintain on - demand procurement. The coke supply will gradually become loose. With the support of high hot - metal production, steel mills still have restocking demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Coal mines have basically resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. The downstream steel and coking enterprises' procurement is cautious, and the upstream inventory is accumulating, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. After the parade, the production of coking coal and coke will gradually recover, and the downstream restocking on - demand will support the coking coal price [11] Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another wave of oscillations. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12] Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] Manganese Silicon - A new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure [16] Ferrosilicon - The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [17] 4. Index Information - On September 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2222.49, down 0.11%; the commodity 20 index was 2487.89, down 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2232.18, up 0.10%. The steel industry chain index was 1999.51, with a daily decline of 0.18%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month decline of 4.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.16% [100][102]

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]