1、报道称伊朗希望与美国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，原油黄金跳水 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 有报道称，伊朗告知阿拉伯官员，只要美国不参与攻击，他们愿意重返谈判桌。受此消息影响，原油、 黄金盘中下跌。以色列财政部长表示，特朗普并未要求以色列收敛军事行动，目前以色列的攻势还未到 一半。阿拉伯中间人表示，目前没有迹象表明伊朗准备在核谈判中作出新让步。 2、创新药迎重磅利好！国家药监局发文，临床试验审评审批或将加速 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 盘前要闻 国家药监局征求意见提出，为进一步支持以临床价值为导向的创新药研发，提高临床研发质效，对符合 要求的创新药临床试验申请在30个工作日内完成审评审批。中邮证券认为，创新药即使短期震荡亦属正 常，仍坚定看好2年—3年维度的创新药行情。 3、对标美股"七巨头"！高盛提出中国"十巨头"，腾讯、阿里、小米等在列 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 高盛报告指出，中国民营企业的中期投资前景正在改善，"中国民企十杰"能够巩固其在股市上的主导地 位，与美国的"七巨头"股票遥遥相仿。高盛所说的"中国民企十杰"分别是：腾讯、阿里巴巴、小米、比 亚迪、美团、网易、美的集团、恒瑞医药、携程集团和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a calming of tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to a drop in gold and oil prices, while US stocks opened higher [1][6]. - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise by over 1% [2]. - Chinese concept stocks experienced a broad increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising nearly 2.7% [3]. Group 2 - Gold prices fell significantly, with London gold futures dropping below $3,400 per ounce, a decline of over 1% and more than $70 in a single day [4]. - Oil prices also decreased, with WTI crude and US crude futures both falling by over 4%, while domestic crude futures dropped by more than 3% [5]. - The latest updates on the Israel-Iran conflict show a continued but easing tension, with both sides showing signs of a more conciliatory approach [6].

Key Points - The New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for June is reported at -16, significantly lower than the expected -5.5 and the previous value of -9.2 [2] - The European Commission is preparing to accept a unified 10% tariff from the United States under specific conditions [2] Company News - Nippon Steel announced plans to acquire 100% of U.S. Steel Corporation [3] - Boeing has revised its future aircraft demand forecast down to approximately 43,600 units over the next 20 years [3] - Futu Holdings is reportedly exploring the possibility of increasing its stake in Tianxing Bank, potentially becoming the controlling shareholder [3] - USA Rare Earth is collaborating with Moog to establish a supply chain for rare earth magnets in data centers [3] - TotalEnergies has acquired stakes in 40 exploration blocks from Chevron, enhancing offshore cooperation in the U.S. [3] - Amazon is expanding its AI initiatives to Australia, planning to invest $13 billion in local data center infrastructure [3] - Apple is experiencing slow progress in its AI projects, leading to the departure of its business head from the core management team [3] - The Dubai Roads and Transport Authority has signed a memorandum of understanding with Uber and WeRide to initiate a pilot operation for autonomous vehicles [3] - Intel has notified employees about upcoming layoffs at its wafer fabrication facility in the Silicon Forest area of Oregon, starting mid-July [3]

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index has increased to 6.35% as of June 8, up from 5.82% on May 25, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car retail sales, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [1][7][8] - Passenger car retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 19% before June, compared to 13.3% in May and 14.5% in April [1][11] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in the first 13 days of June across 67 cities, compared to a 13% decline in May [1][12] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates continued to rise, with asphalt operating rates at 31.5% as of June 11, up 9.3% year-on-year [1][19] - Cement dispatch rates reached 41.4% as of June 6, slightly up from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [1][19] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17.5% year-on-year as of June 13, indicating a recovery in coal production [1][20] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption showed a decline in metro passenger traffic and flight operations, with metro ridership averaging 76.17 million daily in 27 cities, down 0.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The land premium rate has significantly decreased to 1.04% as of June 8, down from 5.14% in May and 9.75% in April, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [3][13] Trade and Prices - Global oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil rising by 13% and Brent crude by 11.7% [2][39] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.5%, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 7.6%, reflecting higher shipping costs [2][39] - U.S. imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 9.4% in early June, and imports from China decreased by 28% [3][25] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - Government bond yields slightly decreased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.4002%, 1.5447%, and 1.6440% respectively as of June 13 [4][59] - New special bond issuance has progressed faster than in 2024, with a total of 1.69 trillion yuan issued by June 13, representing 38.4% of the annual target [3][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Group 1 - The article introduces the "Xiaoxue Three-Part Method" investment strategy, which aims to provide a more scientific and sustainable investment approach to avoid losses from chasing market trends [3][4]. - The investment allocation is based on a growth-oriented plan with a ratio of 30% bonds, 60% stocks, and 10% commodities, reflecting the author's risk tolerance and investment goals [3][4]. - The bond allocation focuses on domestic bonds and U.S. dollar bonds to benefit from high yields and potential interest rate cuts, serving as a stabilizing component in the portfolio [3][4]. Group 2 - The performance of the Xiaoxue Three-Part Method portfolio showed an overall increase of 0.76% last week, with contributions from both equity and bond segments despite a turbulent domestic equity market [7]. - The article highlights the resilience of the portfolio amid geopolitical tensions, with gold prices rising by 1.56% and oil prices surging by 13.32% due to market dynamics [7][18]. - The article notes that the portfolio's year-to-date weighted return is 4.88%, with a maximum drawdown of less than 8%, indicating a balanced growth strategy [7]. Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a pullback, with major indices declining, while sectors like energy and materials showed positive performance [9][10]. - The Hong Kong market displayed mixed results, with healthcare and materials sectors performing well, while consumer sectors faced declines [12]. - U.S. stock indices faced pressure, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all recording losses due to rising inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions [14]. Group 4 - The bond market showed a slight upward trend, supported by central bank signals and increased buying activity in short-term bonds [15][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of commodity investments as a risk-hedging tool, with a recommended allocation of 10-15% to enhance portfolio performance [4][21]. - Geopolitical events have significantly impacted commodity prices, with oil prices rebounding sharply due to Middle Eastern tensions and gold prices benefiting from increased safe-haven demand [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from June 9th to June 13th, 2025, covering various aspects such as overall, production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing, and analyzes their trends and changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Index: Stable Fundamental High - Frequency Index - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.1 points (previous value: 126.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.4%) [9][11]. 3.2 Production: Decline in Electric Furnace and Polyester Operating Rates - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.6 (previous value: 125.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8% (previous value: 64.7%); the polyester operating rate is 88.6% (previous value: 88.9%) [9][11][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Turn Positive Year - on - Year - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 44.5 (previous value: 44.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters (previous value: 213,000 square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.0% (previous value: 3.6%) [9][11][21]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Recovery of Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 118.4 (previous value: 118.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 1.9 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 31.5% (previous value: 31.3%) [9][11][33]. 3.5 Exports: Continuous Recovery of Export Container Freight Rate Index - The export high - frequency index is 144.3 (previous value: 144.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1243 points (previous value: 1155 points); the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 106 points (previous value: 104 points); the RJ/CRB index is 303.3 points (previous value: 297.6 points) [9][11][37]. 3.6 Consumption: Decline in Passenger Car Retail and Wholesale - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 1.5 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The retail volume of passenger car manufacturers is 42,835 units (previous value: 95,364 units); the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers is 38,836 units (previous value: 156,618 units); the average daily box office is 39.01 million yuan (previous value: 82.57 million yuan) [9][11][50]. 3.7 CPI: Continued Decline in Pork Prices - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The latest average wholesale price of pork is 20.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.6 yuan/kg) [10][11][55]. 3.8 PPI: Recovery of Crude Oil Futures Prices - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: - 0.1%). The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 609 yuan/ton (previous value: 609 yuan/ton); the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures is 69 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 65 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][61]. 3.9 Transportation: Decline in Passenger Transport and Flights - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.0 (previous value: 127.8), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.2 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 36.98 million person - times (previous value: 37.17 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,420 flights (previous value: 12,451 flights) [10][11][73]. 3.10 Inventory: Continuous Recovery of Aluminum Ingot Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.3 (previous value: 160.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory is 179,000 tons (previous value: 165,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1.682 million tons (previous value: 1.627 million tons) [10][11][79]. 3.11 Financing: Decline in Net Financing of Local Government Bonds and Credit Bonds - The financing high - frequency index is 229.1 (previous value: 228.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.3 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The net financing of local government bonds is - 4.3 billion yuan (previous value: 5.05 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 9.96 billion yuan (previous value: 12.37 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 1.05% (previous value: 1.08%) [10][11][89].

今年上半年，港股市场表现出色，恒生指数领涨全球主要指数，离不开政策面多维度持续发力，夯实了市场上行的基础。 据数据统计，截至6月11日，南向资金年内累计净流入已达6755.53亿港元，刷新历史同期纪录。4月初，受美国"关税政策"影响，恒指再次跌破20000点整数 关。不过，也为南向资金涌入提供了绝佳买点。4月9日，南向资金单日净买入额达355.87亿港元，刷新历史纪录，凸显资金逢低布局的积极性。 截至6月11日的公开信息预估，港股市场上半年预计约40家公司首发上市，筹资额约1087亿港元，IPO数量和筹资额分别同比上涨33%和711%。这一成绩的 取得，得益于大型IPO的推动，预计上半年的筹资额将超过去年全年筹资总额。 产业政策引导：助力新兴企业加速上市 从产业特点来看，内地对优质生产力的扶持政策促使企业通过港股IPO加速发展进程。在支持人工智能、半导体、新能源等产业发展的大背景下，相关企业 纷纷选择在港股上市。这些企业具有高成长性、创新性强等特点，符合港股市场对科技和新兴产业的定位。例如，一些人工智能企业在港股上市后，借助资 本市场的力量，加大研发投入，拓展业务领域，迅速提升了市场竞争力。港股市场为这些企业 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is witnessing a significant acceleration towards index-based investment, with the first batch of Sci-Tech bond ETFs expected to be submitted for approval soon, potentially reaching 10 new products [1] - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 300 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest and influx of funds into the bond market, which is expected to support the real economy [1] - In the second quarter, the ETF market has seen a net inflow of nearly 300 billion yuan, driven by the issuance of various thematic products, highlighting a trend of increasing capital allocation through ETFs [1][2] Group 2 - The standardization of ETF naming is being adopted, with 22 index funds under Harvest Fund set to collectively rename their products to a unified format, enhancing clarity and reducing information costs for investors [2] - A-share companies are accelerating their listings in Hong Kong, with several industry leaders preparing for dual financing platforms, attracting long-term international capital for quality IPO projects [2] Group 3 - The automotive finance sector is undergoing a deep adjustment as regulators have halted high-interest rebate schemes, which have been deemed harmful to consumer rights and market order [3] - ESG-themed financial products in bank wealth management are still in their infancy, with only about 1% market share, indicating a need for improved investor education and product innovation [3] Group 4 - Ant Group has entered the Hong Kong stablecoin market, applying for licenses to issue a stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, joining other tech giants in the cryptocurrency space [4] - A new optical AI processor developed by MIT can classify wireless signals with 95% accuracy, showcasing advancements in AI hardware that could benefit high-performance computing [4] Group 5 - Apple has acknowledged quality issues with a small number of Mac Mini devices, which may fail to power on, and is offering free repair services for affected units [5] - Tianan Insurance and Tianan Life have had their business licenses revoked due to serious regulatory violations, marking the end of their operations [6] Group 6 - Haidilao has introduced a self-service lunch option priced at 22 yuan, reflecting a strategy to attract customers with lower-priced meal options [6] - San Yuan Foods has launched a new brand "Beijing Milk Company" and opened tea shops, aiming to combine historical elements with modern technology in its retail strategy [7] Group 7 - Transsion Holdings has established a new division to explore the electric two-wheeler market, focusing on rapid expansion in Africa and other developing countries [8] - Light Media's chairman has called for a reassessment of profit-sharing models in the Chinese film industry to ensure fairer compensation for producers [9] - ST Guangdao is facing potential forced delisting due to systemic financial fraud, highlighting significant regulatory scrutiny in the market [10]

Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as the main battleground for the current bull market, with a structural advantage in the Hang Seng Technology Index [5] - The A-share market is expected to experience a "steady first, then rise" trend in the second half of the year, driven by supportive fiscal policies [23] Geopolitical Tensions - The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, leading to increased risk aversion in financial markets, with a significant spike in international oil prices and gold [3] - The Middle East is crucial for global energy supply, and the ongoing conflict may disrupt logistics and increase prices for metals like zinc and copper, impacting industries such as automotive and electronics [3] Equity Markets - Cathay Securities believes that Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A-shares this year due to the scarcity of attractive assets in a weak macroeconomic environment [5] - Invesco continues to favor defensive positions in light of market uncertainties and potential volatility, with a neutral outlook on U.S. Treasuries [6] - Guohai Franklin Fund expresses optimism for the second half of the year, citing positive macroeconomic factors and a gradual recovery in the economy [8] Industry Research - Fuguo Fund highlights a strong trend of healthcare companies listing in Hong Kong, reshaping the pharmaceutical sector into a hub for biotech innovation and established pharmaceutical leaders [11] - Huashang Fund points out that the military industry is expected to showcase enhanced technological attributes and investment opportunities due to international tensions and upcoming product upgrades [13] - Xibu Lide Fund notes that resource stocks are gaining strength amid geopolitical conflicts, with a focus on gold and energy sectors [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Caitong Fund anticipates a continued oscillating pattern in the bond market due to insufficient demand and external trade uncertainties, with a stable policy environment expected [18] - Wanjia Fund indicates that declining deposit rates will enhance the appeal of dividend-paying assets, which are becoming increasingly attractive in a low-yield environment [19] - Zhongou Fund maintains a relatively optimistic outlook on the bond market, suggesting that the underlying logic for market performance remains unchanged [21] Asset Allocation - CICC's mid-year strategy report suggests that the A-share market will likely see a "steady first, then rise" pattern, with a focus on certainty in investment opportunities [23]