1. Macroeconomy - **Core View**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in previous years, indicating downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be implemented. Overseas, the next few months will be a crucial observation period for inflation trends. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has been fluctuating, and changes in US inflation data deserve close attention [2] - **Market Information**: Modi is scheduled to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit; Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US; Trump has ordered an additional 25% tariff on India; the US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to increase tariffs by 15%; there are signs of a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky; Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut; the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction was unexpectedly weak [1][3][5][28] 2. RMB Exchange Rate - **Core Logic**: Based on the "dollar - mid - price - spot price" analysis framework, the market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, and the dollar index is likely to consolidate. With the central bank's guidance and the trade surplus from January to June, the short - term exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a central anchor of 7.20 [4] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are reasonable; Trump will announce the appointment of a new Fed governor in 2 - 3 days; trade negotiations between Switzerland and the US have not made progress; Trump plans to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and additional tariffs on India and other countries [3] 3. Stock Index - **Core View**: The stock market continued to rise yesterday, mainly driven by foreign capital inflows and active participation of hot money. The CSI 1000 index showed relative strength, while the Shanghai 50 index was weak. Short - term external tariff adjustments have increased risk - aversion sentiment, while foreign capital inflows have brought vitality. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to face upward pressure [5] - **Market Information**: The margin balance has returned to the two - trillion - yuan mark; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to levy high tariffs on chips [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell cash - secured put options [5] 4. Treasury Bonds - **Core Logic**: Although the bond market's gains narrowed in the afternoon, there are signs of sentiment improvement, such as relative desensitization to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets and continuous net purchases by funds [7] - **Market Information**: South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists; the US plans to sell weapons to Ukraine [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Appropriate layout of long positions [7] 5. Container Shipping - **Core View**: Some mainstream shipping companies have continuously lowered the spot cabin quotes for European routes, which led to the lower opening of futures prices. Maersk's adjustment of shipping routes may increase port congestion and affect the effective capacity of European routes, which is beneficial for the long - term futures prices. However, the decline in spot quotes of some shipping companies has limited the upside of futures prices. In the future, the EC is expected to be in a volatile or slightly downward trend [9] - **Market Information**: The US has imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa, causing Maersk to terminate direct shipping between the US and South Africa; Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs [8][9] 6. Commodities 6.1 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Core View**: Due to weak US economic data and government pressure on the Fed, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. In the medium - to - long - term, the trend is bullish, and in the short - term, the market is mainly controlled by bulls [10] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [10] 6.2 Copper - **Core View**: Copper prices have shown a slight correction. The difference between LME copper and COMEX copper prices has stabilized. Short - term oversold conditions in COMEX copper may boost the valuation of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak demand [11][12] - **Market Information**: US ISM non - manufacturing data is poor [12] 6.3 Zinc - **Core View**: The continuous decline in overseas zinc inventories provides support for zinc prices. Although the domestic fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, the bottom of zinc prices is expected to be supported. In the short - term, zinc prices are likely to be volatile with a relatively strong trend [12][13] 6.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: The trend of nickel is volatile, and the overall logic has not changed significantly. The price of nickel ore has stabilized with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are differentiated. The supply of stainless steel is strong, and the demand is weak, but the spot price is relatively firm. The supply of nickel sulfate is tight [14][15] 6.5 Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices have shown some resilience. Supply - side issues have not been resolved quickly, and if the situation in Myanmar drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [17] 6.6 Carbonate Lithium - **Core View**: The futures price of carbonate lithium has fluctuated higher. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain has weakened slightly. Supply - side disturbances still exist, and the issue of mining certificates continues to ferment. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly upward state in the near term [18][19] 6.7 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core View**: Cost - side factors drive up prices, and sentiment continues to stimulate the market. In the short - term, the trend is bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside of industrial silicon is limited, and opportunities for buying on dips should be noted. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to industrial integration [20][22][23] 6.8 Lead - **Core View**: After two days of bottom - range oscillation, lead prices rose according to the peak - season expectation. The supply of primary lead is relatively strong, and the cost of recycled lead can support prices. The demand side is approaching the peak season, and the willingness to stock up for production has increased. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [24] 6.9 Black Metals 6.9.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: The inspection and reduction of coal mine over - production are ongoing, and there are also news of steel production reduction. Although it is the off - season, the demand shows the characteristic of being not weak in the off - season. The near - term contracts face delivery pressure, and the upper space is limited, but the lower space is supported [25][26] - **Market Information**: The government plans to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027; some coal mines have production reduction expectations [25] 6.9.2 Iron Ore - **Core View**: The rise of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The profit of steel mills has weakened significantly, and the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal is more prominent. The price of iron ore is expected to face upward pressure [27] - **Market Information**: Some coal mines have production reduction expectations, and the output and inventory of steel products have changed [27] 6.9.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Core View**: The expectation of coking coal production reduction supports the strengthening of the market. The 5 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the coking profit has been repaired. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to macro events [28][29] - **Market Information**: Trump has imposed tariffs on related countries; the government plans to renovate rural roads; the production and inventory data of coking coal and coke have changed [28] 6.9.4 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core View**: The cost support for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has strengthened. The profits of steel mills are good, which provides support for the demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. However, in the long - term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the supply side is insufficient. In the short - term, the market still has some expectations for supply - side contraction [30][31][32] 6.10 Energy and Chemicals 6.10.1 Crude Oil - **Core View**: The overnight crude - oil market冲高回落 and closed down. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include the decline in US crude - oil and refined - product inventories, Saudi Arabia's significant increase in official prices, and Trump's tariff measures. Bearish factors include the possible cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus increases, and the upward space is limited [33][35] - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of light oil in September; US EIA weekly data shows changes in inventory, production, and trade; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods [33][34] 6.10.2 LPG - **Core View**: The LPG market is in a low - level volatile state. The supply side is still relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The overall situation remains loose [36][37][38] 6.10.3 PTA - PX - **Core View**: The prices of PX - PTA have declined under the influence of commodity sentiment. The supply of PX is expected to increase in August, and the profit margin has been compressed. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The demand for polyester has declined, but there is a peak - season expectation. Currently, the PTA processing fee is at a historical low, and there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying on dips [39][40][41] 6.10.4 MEG - Bottle Grade - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the price of ethylene glycol has weakened. The supply side has increased, and the profit has been compressed. The inventory of the East China port has decreased slightly. In general, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [42] 6.10.5 Methanol - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to the fundamentals, which are currently weak. Factors such as the shutdown of Xingxing, the high - volume shipment from Iran in July, and poor downstream profits should be noted. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44] 6.10.6 PP - **Core View**: The PP market is in a short - term volatile state. The supply side is under pressure from new device production and the recovery of PDH profit. The demand side is still weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand cannot be fundamentally resolved in the short - term. It is affected by macro sentiment and coking - coal prices [45][46] 6.10.7 PE - **Core View**: The PE market is currently affected by external factors and lacks a directional driver. The supply side has increased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The inventory of LLDPE is at a high level. However, downstream orders are expected to recover in August, and the demand is expected to pick up [47][48] 6.10.8 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Core View**: Pure benzene: The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to be in a volatile state, and it is advisable to reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene by selling at high prices. Styrene: The supply is expected to increase in August and September, and the market is expected to be weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49][50] 6.10.9 Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The fuel - oil market is still weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has shown some recovery. The inventory is at a high level, and the short - term driving force is downward [52] 6.10.10 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil market has been dragged down by crude - oil prices. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It is advisable to have a bearish allocation [53] 6.10.11 Asphalt - **Core View**: The asphalt market is weakly volatile following the cost side. The supply has increased, and the demand has been suppressed by weather and capital shortages. In the short - term, the fundamentals have weakened, but in the long - term, the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [53][54] 6.10.12 Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand pattern is that supply is stronger than demand. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [55] - **Glass**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamentals. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in a weak - balance state. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [56] - **Caustic Soda**: As it approaches August, the 09 contract may start the delivery logic. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is stable. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the peak - season performance [57] 6.10.13 Pulp - **Core View**: The pulp market has support on dips. The supply and inventory are at high levels, and the demand is difficult to see a significant long - term increase. However, the demand may be seasonally boosted in August. The market has adjusted with the decline in sentiment and is expected to be supported at the current level [58][59] 6.10.14 Logs - **Core View**: The "autumn fat contract" has opened. The price of the 09 contract revolves around the warehouse - receipt cost. Non - industrial customers are advised to trade in a range, and industrial customers can hedge to lock in profits [61] 6.10.15 Propylene - **Core View**: The propylene market is in a weakly volatile state. The cost side is affected by external factors, the supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The Shandong market has strengthened due to the reduction in the supply - demand gap [63][64] 6.11 Agricultural Products 6.11.1 Hogs - **Core View**: The price of hogs is weakly stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The market has the sentiment of withholding hogs from sale. It is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [66] 6.11.2 Oilseeds - **Core View**: The outer - market US soybeans have fallen due to concerns about new - crop exports and favorable planting weather. The inner - market has given back the sentiment - driven increase. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to face a gap after December. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean meal is limited, and the market is gradually pricing in the supply gap of the far - month contracts. For rapeseed meal, the near - month contracts are relatively strong, and the far - month contracts are expected to de - stock faster. It is advisable to go long on the far - month contracts on dips [67][68] 6.11.3 Oils - **Core View**: The vegetable - oil market is in a slightly upward volatile state recently, with soybean oil being relatively stronger within the sector. The supply pressure of palm oil has increased, the soybean - producing areas lack weather - driven factors, and the driving force for rapeseed oil is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and trade relations [69] 6.11.4 Corn and Starch - **Core View**: The corn market is in a weakly volatile state, and the trading is dull. The price of corn has declined slightly in the Northeast, and the demand is still weak. The price of corn starch is generally stable, and the demand from the syrup industry provides some support [70]

| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...

Market Overview - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations and rose, with the North Stock 50 Index increasing by over 1% and more than 2900 stocks in the market showing gains [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27% to 3627.54 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.39%. The North Stock 50 Index saw a rise of 1.32%, with a total transaction volume of 1,073.6 billion yuan across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North Stock markets [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, tourism, retail, insurance, and banking saw declines, while military, automotive, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced gains. Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, industrial mother machines, and liquid cooling services [2] Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to Pacific Securities, market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations for the index to continue rising until it surpasses the high point from October 8 of the previous year. The short-term support level for the Shanghai Composite Index is seen around 3420 points, which can serve as a reference for short-term strength [2] - The long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy directions indicating a shift in future fiscal spending towards residents, which is foundational for economic recovery potential, exemplified by the latest birth subsidies [2] - The political bureau meeting in July provided a more optimistic assessment of overseas risks compared to April, with a high probability of a positive outcome in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [2] - Technically, major stock indices are showing bullish patterns [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: US President warns of tariff hikes on India and the EU; US non - manufacturing PMI drops from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July, below the expected 51.5, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI in July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policies like childcare subsidies may boost consumption, and a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce reduces short - term tariff uncertainties. Domestic risk appetite rises due to Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation [2]. - Asset recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at short - term highs, with cautious short - term long positions. Bonds may oscillate and correct at short - term highs, suggesting cautious observation. For commodities, black metals may see increased short - term volatility, with cautious short - term long positions; non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, suggesting cautious observation; energy and chemicals may oscillate, with cautious observation; precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs, with cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - manufacturing PMI decline and tariff hike warnings cool global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI decline shows economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks may oscillate strongly at short - term highs, bonds may oscillate and correct, black metals may have increased volatility, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate, and precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors like communication, banking, insurance, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises. China's July manufacturing PMI decline indicates economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. Focus on Sino - US trade talks and domestic policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Tuesday sees a divergence in precious metals. The sharp drop in US non - farm payrolls data increases the Fed's rate - cut probability, and the rebound of core PCE inflation in June makes the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. The US dollar index weakens, and the stock market falls. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short term, with attention to inflation and employment data [4]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Tuesday sees a rebound in the steel spot and futures markets, driven by coal safety supervision. Real - world demand is weak, with an increase in steel inventory and a decrease in apparent consumption. Supply may be restricted by phased production cuts. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Iron ore**: Tuesday sees a slight rebound in iron ore prices, driven by the overall rebound of the ferrous sector. Iron - water production is at a high level but has declined for two consecutive weeks and may continue to fall. Supply shows a decrease in global shipments but an increase in arrivals. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Glass**: Tuesday sees the glass futures contract oscillating. Supply shows a slight increase in daily melting volume and capacity utilization, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate sector is weak, but there is a slight improvement. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: Tuesday sees a rebound in the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, driven by the expected contraction of coal supply. The prices of manganese ore are loosening, and the cost support is strong. The production of silicon iron is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. Iron alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Soda ash**: Tuesday sees the soda ash futures contract oscillating. Supply is in an over - supply pattern despite a recent decline in production. Demand is weak, and there are concerns about capacity exit, which support the bottom price. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations are rising. Although the EU and the US are close to a trade agreement, Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high, which may affect future imports. Copper prices have fallen [9]. - **Aluminum**: Tuesday sees an increase in aluminum prices due to a positive commodity market. However, the fundamentals are weakening, with an increase in domestic and LME inventories. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some recycling plants. Demand is weak in the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices may oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of tin mines in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased significantly. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Tuesday sees a 2.39% decline in the lithium carbonate futures contract. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are falling. Market concerns about mine closures may cause short - term volatility. Cautious observation is recommended [9]. - **Industrial silicon**: Tuesday sees a 1.37% increase in the industrial silicon futures contract. Production is increasing slightly. The rise of coking coal prices may drive industrial silicon prices. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: Tuesday sees a 3.88% increase in the polysilicon futures contract. The prices of related products are stable. The increase in warehouse receipts reflects the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: Russia may consider a cease - fire to avoid secondary sanctions. Trump's threat to blacklist Russia's "shadow fleet" and tariff hikes on India increase oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. Factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but demand is weak. Asphalt prices will continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - **PX**: PTA plant overhauls reduce PX demand. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, but the PXN spread has declined. PX prices will oscillate [12]. - **PTA**: PTA prices fall to around 4600. Processing fees are low, and large - scale plant overhauls offset new production capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and PTA prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase as gas - based plants return. Downstream demand is weak, and ethylene glycol prices will oscillate [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by the weakening of the sector, short - fiber prices fall. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are accumulating. Short - fiber prices may continue to be shorted in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and industrial products correct. Although coal prices support methanol, supply - demand pressure exists. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and prices return to fundamentals. Crude oil prices support PP, but supply is strong and demand is weak. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **LLDPE**: The emotional premium fades. Supply increases as plants restart, and demand is weak. Low inventories and high crude oil prices support LLDPE. LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract closes down 0.40%. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 69%, and attention should be paid to the extreme high - temperature risk in the Midwest later this week [16]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: High arrivals and high operation rates of domestic oil mills slow down the inventory - building of soybean meal. Trade basis quotes decline, but actual sales are average [16]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The fast pace of soybean purchases for the fourth quarter in China increases the low - valuation buying of soybean meal and soybean oil. The inverted soybean - palm oil spread makes soybean oil more cost - effective. Consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on soybean oil and short on palm oil. Rapeseed oil has high port inventories and slow circulation [17]. - **Palm oil**: Since July, palm oil production and inventory pressure in the producing areas are high, and exports are weak. The market expects an increase in inventory in the August MPOB report. Palm oil's recent rebound is driven by funds and technology, but its sustainability is questionable [18]. - **Corn**: Corn prices in the national market fall, and spot trading is light. The supply - demand balance of corn in August is weak. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn market [18]. - **Pigs**: Farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices increases the difficulty of procurement for slaughterhouses. However, the off - season demand is weak, and there may be pressure on pig prices due to increased supply [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the China Commodity Price Index has shown a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market [2] - In July, the overall Commodity Price Index reached 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - The black commodity price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - The agricultural price index fell to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, and the energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The chemical price index experienced a decline to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the mineral price index continued to drop to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced price declines in July [1] Group 3 - The overall outlook for the commodity market is expected to remain stable and positive, supported by government policies aimed at economic recovery and growth [2] - There are still external uncertainties and instabilities affecting global commodity prices, and some industries face challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures [2] - The commodity circulation industry plays a crucial role in stimulating domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development [2]

Group 1 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for July was 111.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - In July, the black commodity price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index continued to rise to 130.1 points, up 1.1% [1] - The agricultural price index fell to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, and the energy price index decreased slightly to 96.7 points, down 0.6% [1] - The chemical price index peaked and then fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the mineral price index continued to decline to 71.7 points, down 2.7% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced price declines in July [1] Group 2 - The continuous month-on-month positive growth of the commodity price index for three consecutive months indicates optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market [2] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment policies is expected to support a stable and positive outlook for the commodity market [2] - Despite the overall positive trend, challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures in certain industries remain [2] - The importance of the commodity circulation industry in stimulating domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development is emphasized for further economic recovery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is currently positioned close to the valuation peaks of 2022 and January 2015, indicating a high valuation environment with potential for adjustments in line with equity market movements [4][65][66]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current positioning of convertible bonds is nearing the high valuation levels seen in 2022 and January 2015, suggesting a potential for adjustments [4][65]. - Historical patterns indicate that convertible bonds typically adjust in sync or lag behind the equity market, with the adjustment pace and magnitude being difficult to precede the equity market [4][66]. - The strong market conditions of previous bull markets (2007, 2009, 2015) saw convertible bond valuations significantly higher than current levels, highlighting the unique circumstances of those periods [4][65][66]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Convertible bonds are viewed as the only viable option for pure bond investors transitioning to equity investments, with a sustained demand expected due to profit-making effects [4][66]. - A recommended strategy includes a focus on high-quality convertible bonds with a scale of over 1.5 billion yuan and a rating of AA or above, as well as low-priced convertible bonds that still present investment opportunities [9][66]. - The report suggests a monthly review and adjustment of the recommended convertible bond portfolio to maintain flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions [9][66]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The median price of convertible bonds is reported at approximately 127.63 yuan, close to the highest points seen in 2021-2022, with premium rates indicating a historical high for bond valuations [16][22]. - New issuances are generally priced above 130 yuan, reflecting a strong market sentiment and high valuation levels similar to previous peaks [22][66]. - The current premium rates for convertible bonds are significantly elevated, with many bonds trading at premiums exceeding 30%, indicating a robust demand despite high valuations [16][22][66].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index [1][4][23]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in risk-free interest rates is a significant factor influencing the stock market, as it has historically driven market performance during favorable years [2][6][12]. - The current trend shows that interest in fixed-income products is decreasing, while interest in equities and diversified assets is rising [8][17]. - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. illustrate that when long-term government bond yields fall below 2%, there is a shift away from fixed-income investments towards equities [5][11][20]. Group 2: Structural Changes in the Market - Recent capital market reforms aim to enhance investor returns and improve the quality of listed companies, marking a significant shift in focus towards investor interests [13][15][20]. - The introduction of new regulations, such as stricter rules on delisting and financial disclosures, reflects a commitment to improving market integrity and investor confidence [14][16]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The market is presenting two main categories of investment opportunities: stable, monopolistic assets in traditional sectors and assets aligned with new technological trends and consumer demands [25][26]. - Specific sectors such as financial services, high-dividend companies, internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer brands are highlighted as promising investment areas [27][28]. - The cyclical industries are also expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics due to recent market adjustments [28].

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased this week, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the energy and chemical sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in the cross - section are precious metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak sector is the energy sector [3]. - In the precious metals sector, the sequential momentum of gold has marginally recovered, and the differentiation within the sector has narrowed. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has continued to decline slightly, and the cross - sectional differentiation has expanded, with copper and zinc being on the weaker end [3]. - In the black sector, the short - term momentum factor has marginally decreased, but the long - term factor has gradually stabilized, and the term structure differentiation has narrowed. In the energy and chemical sector, the cross - sectional momentum has declined overall, and PTA, soda ash, and glass are on the weaker end of the sector's cross - section [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, the positions of oilseeds and meals have both decreased slightly, and the differentiation has narrowed [3]. Group 2: Factor Returns - Last week's returns and monthly returns for different factors: supply factor had a last - week return of 1.64% and a monthly return of 0.00%; demand factor had a last - week return of 1.51% and a monthly return of 0.00%; inventory factor had a last - week return of 1.20% and a monthly return of - 2.28%; spread factor had a last - week return of 3.90% and a monthly return of 2.50%; profit factor had a last - week return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.00%; the cumulative return of major categories last week was 1.64% and this month was - 0.04% [7]. Group 3: Methanol Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.21%, the demand factor increased by 0.13%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.19%, the spread factor increased by 0.09%, and the composite factor increased by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal for short positions continues. On the fundamental factor side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants has increased, and the import arrival volume has increased slightly, indicating a short position on the supply side; the operating rates of formaldehyde and chloride plants have increased, but the capacity utilization rates of acetic acid and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of domestic methanol manufacturers has decreased, indicating a long position on the inventory side; the closing price of the main methanol futures contract and the 9 - 1 spread on the futures market have both released short - position signals, and the spread side has turned to a short position [4]. Group 4: Glass Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, the inventory factor decreased by 2.28%, the spread factor increased by 2.50%, and the composite factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is a short position. On the fundamental factor side, the capacity utilization rate of float glass has remained flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; float glass enterprises have continued to reduce inventory, indicating a long position on the inventory side; the spot prices of the float glass markets in Central China, North China, and South China have all released short - position signals, indicating a short position on the spread side; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal has declined, indicating a short position on the profit side [7]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, each factor remained unchanged, and this week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral. The arrival volume at Qingdao Port has increased significantly, and the shipping volumes of BHP and Rio Tinto have increased, turning the supply side into a short - position feedback, but the overall signal remains neutral. The consumption of iron ore powder for sintering in steel mills and the proportion of sintered ore in the furnace have decreased, and the strength of the long - position feedback on the demand side has decreased slightly, but the signal is still neutral. The iron ore concentrate at ports and the domestic sintering iron ore powder in steel mills have both reduced inventory slightly, weakening the short - position feedback on the inventory side. The price center of PB powder has shifted down, further weakening the strength of the long - position feedback on the spread side [7]. Group 6: Lead Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.52%, the demand factor decreased by 0.51%, the spread factor increased by 0.46%, and the composite factor strengthened by 0.15%. This week, the comprehensive signal has changed from a short position to neutral. The price of domestic lead concentrates from SMM has decreased, and the profit of tax - free recycled lead has decreased, turning the supply - side signal to neutral. The LME lead inventory and registered warrants have increased, turning the inventory side into a short - position feedback, but the overall signal remains neutral. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has widened, strengthening the short - position feedback on the spread side [7].