Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report is a daily data report on commodity arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on May 12, 2025, presenting the basis, spreads, and other data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, helping investors understand market conditions. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed a continuous decline in the basis, reaching - 171.4 yuan/ton on May 9 [2]. - Spreads such as 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 during the period [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 9 was - 35.58 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the ratio was 0.1369, and the basis was 33.60 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 9 was - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - Spread data included information on different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemicals, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being - 1065 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - commodity spread data, like LLDPE - PVC being 2191 yuan/ton on May 9 [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed changes. For example, the basis of rebar on May 9 was 128.0 yuan/ton [14]. - Spread data included different months for rebar (5 - 1, 10 - 1, 10 - 5) and other black metals (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) [14]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore being 4.34 on May 9 [14]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for domestic non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper on May 9 was 930 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals on May 9, 2025, included LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss. For example, the LME spread of copper was 49.19, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.28 [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, etc., showed changes. For example, the basis of soybean No. 1 on May 9 was - 213 yuan/ton [37]. - Spread data included different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various agricultural products, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No. 1 being 26 yuan/ton [35]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of soybean No. 1 to corn being 1.75 on May 9 [35]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 9 was 37.56 [45]. - Spread data for different months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for various stock index futures, such as the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 being - 33.2 [45].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月12日 近期氧化铝检修压产产能不断上升,产蛋阶段性降低,行业库存转降,不过一旦利润修复产能依然 会大规模复产,且山东和河北新产能将逐渐有成品产出。成本端几内亚铝土矿成交价已从年初110美 元降至75美元，对应氧化铝平均成本降至2900元附近。本周氧化铝现货成交略有上升,短期盘面反 弹高度将受到过剩前景和成本坍塌限制,期货升水时考虑逢高偏空参与。 上周国际油价低位反弹,布伦特07合约上涨3.95%。继美英达成贸易协议后,周末中美高层绕贸会 谈在瑞士取得实质性进展及重要关识,双方同意建立中美经贸挫伤机制开展进一步磋商,贸易战风 脸的阶段性缓和带动油价向上修复,同时二季度以来全球石油累阵速度放缓。同时值得注意的是. 周日美伊核会谈同样进展积极,俄乌和谈亦在推进之中,全球地缘风险的绘和降低原油制裁及断供 风险,后续上涨空间取决于贸易战实质性缓和的进展。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属震荡,波动有限。上周美联储会议鲍威尔重申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,本周重点 关注美国CP1、PPI和零售数据。近期贸易谈判和地练纷争交织,印巴达成停火,关英达成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For股指期货, small - and medium - cap stocks have high crowding levels, and weighted indices may continue to rise. Pay attention to style drift [8]. - For国债期货, it may be better to cautiously steepen the yield curve rather than taking a unilateral position, and it's advisable to remain moderately cautious [9]. - For集运欧线, the market will focus on whether the spot price will decline further and if shipping companies will raise prices in June. The overall price is likely to fall rather than rise [10]. - For棉花, the domestic cotton market is expected to operate weakly at a low level, and attention should be paid to macro - situation changes, US cotton planting, and export situations [10][11]. - For白糖, the sugar price will fluctuate due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain production - demand gaps [12]. - For油脂油料, short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices, while being aware of policy changes, abnormal weather, and soybean arrivals [13]. - For鸡蛋, the short - term decline in egg prices may slow down, but the supply pressure may increase in the future. A bearish approach to egg futures is recommended [15]. - For苹果, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended [15]. - For红枣, close short positions in batches and monitor downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [15]. - For生猪, with the futures price deeply discounted and a stalemate between bulls and bears, short - term waiting and watching is recommended [16]. - For燃料 oil, crude oil is expected to continue to rebound, and fuel oil prices will follow, with the short - term increase being stronger than that of crude oil [17]. - For塑料, both L and PP should be configured bearishly [18]. - For甲醇, it should be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset, and short positions can be considered on rebounds [19]. - For烧碱, the Shandong region's production is expected to be stable. The futures price may be strong if the 32% alkali price is firm; otherwise, it may fall. A bearish and volatile approach is recommended [20][21]. - For纯碱玻璃, the supply of soda ash may improve marginally in May, but the long - term high - supply situation remains. Glass demand is expected to be weak, and prices will likely fluctuate weakly [22]. - For沥青, crude oil is expected to continue to rebound, and asphalt futures will repair the basis, with prices expected to fluctuate around 3400 [23]. - For聚酯产业链, polyester varieties may continue to rebound in the short term, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited [24]. - For纸浆, the weak demand and high inventory situation remain unchanged, and it will be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material and finished - product inventory rhythms [24]. - For原木, short - term oscillations are expected. Short positions can be taken on rebounds, and long positions in out - of - the - money call options can be considered in the long term [24]. - For urea, the UR2509 contract will oscillate in the short term, and a bearish approach should be taken after a significant increase [24]. - For铝, the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be taken at low prices. For alumina, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken at high prices [25]. - For碳酸锂, the price may oscillate, and short - term factors focus on supply - demand changes [26]. - For工业 silicon, a bearish approach is recommended before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [26]. - For螺矿, short - term support at the valley - electricity price and 3000 should be monitored, and the market is expected to remain weak in the long term [28]. - For煤焦, without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, there are no conditions for going long [30]. - For铁 alloy, go long on ferrosilicon during the day, and close the short - put option position on silicomanganese's 06 contract [31]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - In April, China's goods trade imports and exports were 3.84 trillion yuan, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%), and imports were 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%). The trade value with the US was 3269.2 billion yuan [8]. - The State Council Executive Meeting planned key economic and social development work for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, promoted common prosperity, and supported free trade zones in service trade and data cross - border flow [8]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing boosting consumption, the sustainability of government debt expansion, and promoting a reasonable rise in prices [8]. - China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. The CPI in April rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.1% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year. The PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [8]. - Many small and medium - sized banks lowered deposit interest rates, and experts expect further cuts [8]. - The US Commerce Secretary warned that US - Japan - South Korea tariff negotiations would take time, and Trump stated a minimum 10% tariff on trading partners [8]. 3.2 Futures Strategies 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures The crowding level of small - and medium - cap stocks is high, and weighted indices may continue to rise. The market is digesting the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Offering Funds," and there may be a re - allocation of under - weighted sectors. The Q2 GDP growth rate may be revised upwards [8]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures It may be better to steepen the yield curve rather than taking a unilateral position. The inter - bank funds rate has declined, and the bond market was affected by foreign trade data and expectations of China - US tariff negotiations. The key is whether the capital center can reach 1.4%, and there may be disturbances from the fundamentals and China - US tariffs [9]. 3.3 Commodity Market Analysis 3.3.1 Shipping The market for container shipping to Europe will focus on spot price trends and shipping companies' price - raising actions. The supply - demand imbalance and overflow of US - bound shipping capacity are putting downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.3.2 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is weak due to concerns about demand. International factors such as trade tensions and US cotton exports also affect prices. Attention should be paid to the 5 - month supply - demand report [10][11]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price will fluctuate due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain production - demand gaps. The focus is on the production in South America and the export situation of major producers [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil may be affected by production increases and changes in demand, while soybean meal is affected by US soybean planting and domestic oil - mill production [13][14]. - **Eggs**: The short - term decline in egg prices may slow down, but the supply pressure may increase in the future due to high production capacity and inventory [15]. - **Apples**: A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The spot market is stable, but the new - season apple production needs further assessment [15]. - **Jujubes**: Close short positions in batches and monitor downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas. The market supply is sufficient, and the price may oscillate at the bottom [15]. - **Pigs**: With the futures price deeply discounted and a stalemate between bulls and bears, short - term waiting and watching is recommended. The supply pressure may increase in May, and demand may weaken seasonally [16]. 3.3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Crude oil is expected to continue to rebound, and fuel oil prices will follow, with the short - term increase being stronger than that of crude oil. The market needs to assess the impact of trade wars on demand [17]. - **Plastic**: Both L and PP should be configured bearishly due to a weak supply - demand situation and trade uncertainties [18]. - **Methanol**: It should be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset, and short positions can be considered on rebounds. The downstream demand is weak, and international trade affects exports [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The Shandong region's production is expected to be stable. The futures price may be strong if the 32% alkali price is firm; otherwise, it may fall. The current comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is good [20][21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The supply of soda ash may improve marginally in May, but the long - term high - supply situation remains. Glass demand is expected to be weak, and prices will likely fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and market sentiment [22]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is expected to continue to rebound, and asphalt futures will repair the basis, with prices expected to fluctuate around 3400. Refineries are in the复产 period [23]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Polyester varieties may continue to rebound in the short term, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited. The increase is due to factors such as crude oil price increases and supply reductions [24]. - **Paper Pulp**: The weak demand and high inventory situation remain unchanged, and it will be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material and finished - product inventory rhythms [24]. - **Logs**: Short - term oscillations are expected. Short positions can be taken on rebounds, and long positions in out - of - the - money call options can be considered in the long term. Attention should be paid to downstream construction starts and port inventories [24]. - **Urea**: The UR2509 contract will oscillate in the short term, and a bearish approach should be taken after a significant increase. The market is currently stable and strong, but the industry association has called for price adjustments [24]. 3.3.4 Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be taken at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken at high prices. The inventory of aluminum is decreasing, while alumina has issues such as new capacity and falling ore costs [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may oscillate, and short - term factors focus on supply - demand changes. The impact of tariffs on finished - product demand is not obvious, and the focus is on energy - storage demand and technological breakthroughs [26]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, a bearish approach is recommended before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and polysilicon has issues such as low component demand and supply recovery expectations [26]. 3.3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Short - term support at the valley - electricity price and 3000 should be monitored, and the market is expected to remain weak in the long term. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, there are no conditions for going long. The demand for coal and coke may improve, but the second - round price increase for coke has not been implemented [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day, and close the short - put option position on silicomanganese's 06 contract. The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have little change, and the silicomanganese contract has repaired the discount quickly [31].

Summary of Chemical Industry Inventory Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the chemical industry, specifically on inventory levels of various chemical products [1]. Key Points - Major products with increased inventory week-on-week include: - PA66 - Viscose [1] - Major products with decreased inventory week-on-week include: - Nylon - Epoxy Propane [1] - Inventory levels for specific products: - Aggregated MDI remains stable at 60,000 tons [1] - TDI decreased by 5.1% to 14,000 tons [1] - Epoxy Propane decreased by 10.5% to 29,100 tons [1] - Adipic Acid decreased by 1.0% to 19,900 tons [1] - Polyester Filament POY manufacturers increased inventory by 2.3% to 17.1 days [1] - Nylon manufacturers saw a decrease in inventory [1] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the fluctuations in inventory levels, indicating potential supply and demand dynamics within the chemical industry [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to continuous supply - side pressure and the possibility of further easing of geopolitical risks, increasing market concerns about a loose supply - demand pattern. After a short - term rebound, oil prices will continue to be under pressure and mainly fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The suggested fluctuation ranges are [57, 67] for WTI, [59, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the futures price follows the fundamentals. The early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and industrial orders provide certain support, and the delayed resumption of maintenance devices supports the supply in the short - term. If the export policy is relaxed beyond expectations, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy volatility on the options side [30][32]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price stopped falling and rebounded, but the weak supply - demand structure has not changed. The styrene market rose and then fell, with port inventories continuing to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. It is recommended to short styrene at high levels [35][38]. Methanol - The inland methanol price is stable, but there is downward pressure on valuation. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high levels [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels. In the short - term, wait and see the short - term rebound. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is obvious, and it is recommended to short at high levels, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [46][51]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the price reaches a low level. For PP, the supply pressure eases slightly in the second - quarter maintenance season, but the long - term outlook is weak, with a downward risk [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with the PX09 fluctuating in the 6000 - 6400 range. For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, and the TA09 is expected to fluctuate in the 4200 - 4500 range. For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the EG09 in the 4050 - 4300 range. For short - fiber, follow the raw materials and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee of PF06. For bottle - chips, the absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported to some extent [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil was at $61.08 on February 8th and $61.12 on May 7th, with a decline of $0.04 (- 0.07%); WTI was at $58.07 on both dates. The spreads of various crude oil varieties also changed to different degrees [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending May 2, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value. Refinery utilization rate was 89%. There were changes in inventory, production, import, and export data of various oil products [5]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices showed different changes, with the 01 - 05 contract spread decreasing by 8.26%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.44%, and the factory - inventory decreased by 10.58% on a weekly basis [30][32]. Styrene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw material prices changed. Pure benzene prices rose, and the import profit was - 163.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices rose, and the EB2506 increased by 1.5%. The port inventory of styrene decreased by 7.0% [36][38]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices increased, and the MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 7.25%. The port - inland regional spread increased. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The enterprise inventory increased by 7.26%, and the port inventory increased by 2.69%. The upstream and downstream operating rates showed different changes [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot had small changes. The SH2505 increased by 2.0%, and the V2505 increased by 0.7%. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends [46][49][50]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PE and PP futures contracts increased slightly. The L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 10.70%. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 21.31%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%. The operating rates of PE and PP showed different changes [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased. PX - related prices and spreads also changed. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed to different degrees [58].

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

日报 | 2025-05-07 策略 谨慎做空套保 港口库存回升速率仍慢，基差偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润765元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2100元/吨（-55），内蒙北线基差481元/吨（-23），内蒙南线2150元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（-60），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-28）；河南2320元/吨（-65），河南基差301元/吨（-33）；河北2345元/吨（-115），河北基差386元 /吨（-83）。隆众内地工厂库存283350吨（-26250），西北工厂库存171000吨（-7600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249630 吨（-53045），西北工厂待发订单112800吨（-47000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2420元/吨（-23），太仓基差201元/吨（+9），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差47元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2525元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（-45），广东基差151元/吨（-13）。隆众港口总库存537400吨 （+74200），江苏港口库存248 ...

Group 1: Market Risks and Responses - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have led to increased volatility in domestic and international financial markets, particularly following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, which raised recession fears for the US economy [1] - Although the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy was postponed for 90 days, the underlying risks remain, prompting the need for domestic enterprises to adopt strategies to manage these risks effectively [1] Group 2: Derivative Tools and Strategic Management - China has established a comprehensive commodity industry chain, and the application of futures tools has evolved from basic risk hedging to more integrated risk management strategies [2] - By the end of 2024, 1,408 listed companies in China had announced hedging strategies, indicating a growing trend in utilizing futures for risk management [2] Group 3: Price Discovery and Market Analysis - China's futures market includes 71 listed commodity futures and 146 total futures and options, with over 2.5 million investors and a margin scale of 1.6 trillion yuan, providing valuable price signals for enterprises [3] - The characteristics of the price signals in the futures market—broad, long, precise, and deep—enable companies to enhance their market analysis and strategic planning [3] Group 4: Risk Management Tools - The futures market offers various risk hedging tools, including on-exchange futures, options, and over-the-counter swaps, allowing for personalized and refined risk management services for enterprises [4] - Companies in oversupplied sectors can utilize options strategies to improve sales prices while managing the risks associated with price increases [4] Group 5: Transitioning to Certainty in Operations - Enterprises can shift from a reliance on spot markets to a diversified approach that includes futures, options, and basis management, enhancing stability in their operations [6] - This transition allows for a multi-faceted management approach, incorporating exposure management, basis management, volatility management, and scale management [6] Group 6: Enhanced Risk Management Practices - The recent volatility in commodity prices has heightened the need for improved risk management capabilities within companies, necessitating a structured approach to managing both predictable and unpredictable risks [7] - Companies should develop or refine their risk management processes to better handle market uncertainties [7] Group 7: Collaborative Ecosystem Development - China's futures market has developed a mature service ecosystem, and enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with various institutions to create a synergistic business model that integrates price, tools, funds, information, and goods [8] - Futures companies are focusing on enhancing their service capabilities, emphasizing professional and detail-oriented intermediary services to improve client engagement [8] Group 8: Customized Risk Management Solutions - Futures companies are tasked with providing tailored risk management solutions that align with the unique needs of enterprises, utilizing a combination of futures, options, and swaps to optimize risk management strategies [9] - The integration of financial technology, such as AI and big data, is being leveraged to offer real-time risk monitoring and dynamic strategy adjustments for enterprises [9] Group 9: Trading Service Innovations - The competitive landscape of futures brokerage has led companies to seek new growth avenues, utilizing their research and risk management strengths to enhance client wealth and participate in risk-managed procurement and sales [10] - This approach allows futures companies to better serve the operational needs of enterprises while also creating new revenue streams [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].

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