数据来源：国家发展改革委网站 按照成品油调价时间表，10月27日（下周一）24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。 机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调幅度远超50元/吨的红 线要求，本轮成品油零售限价大概率将下调，这也意味着将迎来今年以来第九次下调。 成品油零售限价或下调 国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，国际原油价格运行重心先跌后涨，导致国内参考的原油变化率在负值范 围内有所收窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师郑明亚表示，本轮国内成品油计价周期开启后，宏观市场氛围偏谨慎，国际原油 期货价格持续在低位波动。近期，欧洲地缘局势复杂化，市场一度担忧原油进口大国将停止或减少从受 欧洲制裁的国家采购原油。由于美国原油库存和汽油库存同步下降，为原油期货价格带来了一定反弹动 力，油价因此出现回升，但这难以改变原油变化率在负值区间运行的态势，进而使得本轮成品油零售限 价下调的预期进一步增强。 卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至10月23日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第9个工作日，按照最 新价格计算，参考的原油变化率为-6.93%，预计汽、柴油价格均应下调300元/吨，折合成升价后，对应 的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -中美贸易摩擦影响减弱，俄美谈判破裂以及美国再次采购战略石油储备利多油价 [4] -供应端，OPEC+增产幅度不及预期且实际产量增幅弱于预期，增产进度仍需观察；需求端，美国需求旺盛，中国需求回稳，需求端整体稳中有升 [4] -关税问题负面影响逐渐消退，原油基本面较好，对油价有一定支撑作用，建议轻仓试多 [4] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: 上周美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存下降，因炼油活动和需求增强。美国商业原油库存减少96.1万桶，至4.228亿桶；汽油库存减少210万桶，至2.167亿桶；馏分油库存减少150万桶，至1.156亿桶 [4][21] - **Supply**: OPEC+决定10月开始增产，此轮增产意味着开始解除第二层减产计划，但实际产量增幅不及预期；美国原油产量上升至1360万桶/日，但页岩油产量触及天花板，供应端存在不确定性 [4][31][35] - **Demand**: 美国炼厂原油加工量增加，产能利用率上升，石油总供应量增加，需求强劲；中国9月原油加工较快增长，需求回稳 [4][45] - **View and Strategy**: 中美贸易摩擦影响减弱等因素利多油价，建议轻仓试多 [4] 3.2 Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: 提供了2024 - 2025年全球原油产量、消费量、库存净提取量等数据 [6] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: 展示了原油从常减压装置开始，经过一系列加工转化为各种产品的产业链结构 [10] 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - 展示了国内外价差、月间价差、INE原油期现价差、BRENT原油期限价差、运费指数、港口运价等图表 [12][15][16][17] 3.4 Inventory - **US Inventory**: 美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存下降，东海岸炼油厂原油净进口量增加 [4][21] - **China Inventory**: 中国6 - 9月库存增量有所回落，因国内原油加工需求环比回升 [23] - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: 上海能源交易所INE原油仓单近期维持低位 [27] 3.5 Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: OPEC+决定增产，10月开始解除第二层减产计划；OPEC 9月原油产量增加52.4万桶/日 [31] - **US Production**: 上周美国原油产量维持在1360万桶/日，页岩油产量触及天花板，未来增产概率较低 [35] - **Global Production**: 供应端存在不确定性，包括OPEC+增产进程、俄罗斯受制裁、美国页岩油产量瓶颈等问题 [39] 3.6 Demand Side - **China Demand**: 中国9月原油加工较快增长，出行需求有望拉动原油消费；9月原油进口量为4,725.20万吨，1 - 9月累计进口量同比增加2.6%；9月成品油出口量为514.1万吨，1 - 9月累计出口量同比减少4.9% [45][50][53] - **US Demand**: 美国炼厂原油加工量增加，产能利用率上升，石油总需求强劲，季节性需求略好于去年同期 [55][58]

石油软实力的未来竞争维度。一是技术主权构建。欧佩克加速向技术标准制定者转型。二是金融规则重构。人民币在俄印能源贸易结算占比升至12%，挑战 美元定价体系。三是动态适应能力。俄罗斯需通过"硬实力向软实力势能转化"（如通过黑洞重组规则）应对制裁。美国制裁虽短期内提升俄油风险溢价，但 在全球日均过剩190万桶的背景下，其影响将被稀释。邓正红理论揭示，未来竞争焦点已从资源控制转向：规则制定权如欧佩克技术标准、价值创新力如页 岩油转型、预期管理术如舆论引导。当前油价盘整本质是"规则权力与物质力量"的再平衡过程，制裁仅能产生阶段性扰动，无法根本改变供过于求的软实力 格局。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立规则先于物质的软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、规则动力学、宇宙软实力公 式、规则熵公式、天体碰撞Ψ函数、时空导数为效能核心的势能转化方程（邓正红方程）、软实力函数、软实力指数工具、软实力油价分析模型、商业模式 效度齿轮结构和基于价值创新的科学-技术-产业三椎体模型，开创能源软实力、低碳软实力和产业软实力，第一个对软实力系统量化与价值评价，拥有基于 企业、城市、国家之软实力指数与软实力价值评 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continued attention [4] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term, and focus on possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals, energy, etc. in the second half of inflation [5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, with US economic data showing resilience. However, the US government shutdown event has entered its 24th day, and the market's pricing of its severity is relatively insufficient [4] Commodity Analysis - Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term; the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by short-term tariff and inflation expectations; precious metals may enter a consolidation stage [5] Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan and emphasized promoting various undertakings [7] - The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses, and the Trump administration has "adjusted" its strategy [7] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russia-US leaders' meeting [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus package [7] - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [7] - The EU has included Chinese enterprises in its sanctions list against Russia, and China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7] - The US government shutdown continues, and the US has announced sanctions on two major Russian oil enterprises [7]

Core Insights - The emergence of seawater hydrogen production technology marks a significant breakthrough for China's energy landscape, potentially leading to a major shift in global energy dynamics [1][16] - This technology allows for hydrogen production without reliance on freshwater resources, significantly reducing environmental pollution and production costs [3][5] Group 1: Seawater Hydrogen Technology - Seawater hydrogen production technology utilizes direct electrolysis of seawater, offering advantages over traditional methods that rely on freshwater or fossil fuels [3] - The technology addresses challenges such as salt corrosion and low electrolysis efficiency through the development of corrosion-resistant coatings and new catalysts [3][5] - By 2025, the cost of producing hydrogen from seawater in China is projected to fall below 20 yuan per kilogram, establishing a strong foundation for large-scale industrialization [5] Group 2: Green Hydrogen Industry - The green hydrogen industry is rapidly emerging, primarily relying on renewable energy for water electrolysis, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [8] - The development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the establishment of hydrogen refueling stations are expected to reduce oil demand in the transportation sector [8][10] - China's green hydrogen projects span 25 provinces, with a total capacity of 1,182 megawatts, indicating significant progress in the sector [10] Group 3: Impact on Oil Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand for oil is increasingly influenced by the substitution effect of clean energy, with green hydrogen poised to replace a portion of oil consumption [12][14] - As green hydrogen becomes more cost-effective, it is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, potentially leading to a scenario where oil prices drop significantly [14][16] - The international energy agency predicts that the global hydrogen market could reach a trillion-dollar scale by 2030, diminishing oil's competitiveness in certain sectors [12] Group 4: Strategic Implications for China - China's advancements in seawater hydrogen technology position it as a leader in energy transition, enhancing both energy independence and international competitiveness [16] - The widespread application of hydrogen technology is anticipated to drive a transformation in the traditional oil industry, necessitating adaptation to new market realities [14][16] - The integration of renewable energy resources for hydrogen production not only supports domestic energy autonomy but also enhances China's role in global energy transitions [14][16]

报道称，伊拉克石油部在声明中表示，起火原因是祖拜尔储油库一处老旧抽油系统出现天然气泄漏。声明补 充称，这类事故通常需要时间才能完全得到控制。官员们表示，部分伤者烧伤严重，情况危急，死亡人数可 能进一步上升。 路透社称，官员们称，火灾发生时，一群工人正在管道附近进行焊接作业。虽然火灾尚未影响生产作业，但 需尽快扑灭以避免部分装载作业被迫暂停。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据路透社报道，伊拉克祖拜尔油田输油管道当地时间26日发生火灾，造成至少两名 工人死亡，多人受伤。官员们表示，火灾并未影响原油输送，目前该油田日输送量维持在40万桶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is that the interruption of Russian oil exports has disrupted short - term supply, and one should wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The "blockade sanctions" imposed by the US on two major Russian oil giants on October 22 are the main disruptive factors, which have pushed up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. However, the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited, and the supply side shows short - term tightness but strong medium - to - long - term adaptability [6]. - The demand side shows a situation of regional differentiation and overall weakness. The sanctions have forced changes in the import patterns of major consumer countries. Global oil demand growth is weak, and actual oil consumption capacity is lower than expected, offsetting the risk of supply disruptions caused by geopolitics. The expected warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere may further suppress heating oil demand, so the demand side cannot provide strong upward momentum for oil prices [7]. - Short - term: Wait and see, beware of further corrections. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the decline of oil prices has accelerated under the influence of this round of trade frictions, the medium - to - long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, and oil price fluctuations may increase [8]. Summary by Directory Overview - The interruption of Russian oil exports due to US sanctions has disrupted short - term supply. The sanctions have affected about 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, mainly pushing up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. Other supply sources are filling the gap, but the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited. The demand side is weak, with regional differentiation and overall lack of upward momentum for oil prices [6][7]. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [26][32][37]. Supply - OPEC is continuously increasing production. The eight participating countries in OPEC + are adjusting their production, and the reduction in production is being gradually lifted. The 9 - month production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 is 80%, and institutional statistics show nearly 1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maritime exports remain at a low level with no obvious increase [10][45][46]. - The supply situations of various countries/regions vary. For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have certain idle production capacities; the demand for some grades of oil in Guyana is strong; Russia's refinery capacity has been damaged, but its crude oil export potential has increased; the production of US shale oil is facing challenges [11][12]. Demand - Asian strategic reserve procurement has slowed down. Chinese refiners are consuming inventory, and the demand for spot imports has weakened. Indian refineries' procurement decisions have been affected by US sanctions, but their interest in Russian oil has reignited recently. North American, European, and Asian refineries are entering the seasonal maintenance period, and direct crude oil demand has temporarily weakened [13][14]. Inventory - US commercial inventories have increased, while the inventory in the Cushing area is still significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are oscillating strongly, European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined oil margins are rebounding [89][91][93]. Price and Spread - In the global crude oil spot market, the sanctions on Russia have led to an increase in Middle - Eastern quotations. Middle - Eastern crude oil discounts have surged, the US export situation is favorable, the North Sea market is stable, the outlook for low - sulfur crude oil in the Mediterranean is bearish, and the West African market is affected by weak Chinese demand [97][99].

全球金融市场即将迎来"超级央行周"。 来源：证券时报 在美联储降息预期升温的刺激下，本周美股三大指数全线反攻，集体创出历史新高，道指、纳指本周累 计涨幅均超过2%。展望下周，美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和加拿大央行将陆续公布利率决议，目前 市场普遍预期，美联储将再次降息25个基点。投资者还将重点关注美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上措 辞，以捕捉未来利率下调幅度与速度的信号。 与此同时，美股市场将迎来"超级财报周"，美股"科技七巨头"中的谷歌、Meta、亚马逊、苹果、微软将 陆续披露财报。有分析指出，考虑到"科技七巨头"在美股市场的市值占比，且股价均处于历史新高附 近，一旦业绩不及预期，或将引发美股市场剧烈波动。 "超级央行周"来袭 展望下周，全球金融市场关注的焦点将是美联储的议息会议。根据日程安排，美联储将于美东时间10月 28日至29日召开议息会议，将于美东时间29日（北京时间30日凌晨）宣布利率决定，市场普遍预计美联 储将再次降息25个基点，至3.75%～4%区间。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为98.3%，维持利率不变的概率为1.7%；美联储 12月累计降息50个基点的概率为93 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 多资产周报 如何看待近期原油价格大涨？ 如何看待近期原油价格大涨？本周国际油价呈现爆发式上涨，截至 10 月 24 日，WTI 原油较上周低点累计反弹近 8%，突破 60 美元/桶关口，布伦 特原油同步回升至 62 美元/桶以上。此轮暴涨的核心推手是欧美对俄罗 斯原油产业链的新一轮制裁，且明确牵扯中国与印度两大原油进口国。 欧盟第 19 轮对俄制裁已获成员国批准，首次将中国石油链条纳入清单。 美国则直接对俄最大两家石油公司 Rosneft（全球第二大石油生产商） 和 Lukoil 实施全面交易禁令。中印作为俄油主要进口方被深度牵涉， 美国与印度贸易谈判接近达成，印度承诺限制俄油进口，市场预期其替 代需求将推升美布两油需求，而中国实体被列入制裁清单，加剧了全球 供应链紧张担忧，进一步放大原油供应端收缩预期，成为油价拉升的重 要催化因素。目前市场普遍预期对俄原油制裁影响原油供应大约在 150 万桶-220 万桶/日。 尽管短期制裁驱动油价反弹，但从宏观层面看，原油逻辑是否全面反转 仍有待观察。核心因素在于，目前原油需求端存在较大不确定性。关税 问题对全球原油需求预期形成持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has implemented significant sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with nearly 30 subsidiaries, in response to Russia's military actions in Ukraine, while urging Moscow to cease hostilities immediately [1][3]. Group 1: Sanctions Details - The sanctions target two companies that control approximately 60% of Russia's oil and condensate production, which are crucial for funding the Kremlin's military operations [8]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized that these sanctions are a direct response to President Putin's refusal to end the ongoing conflict, indicating a strategic move to pressure Russia back to negotiations [4][8]. Group 2: Implications for Global Energy Markets - The sanctions may lead to increased volatility in international oil prices, as historical precedents show that sanctions on key Russian energy firms often result in price fluctuations [9]. - For China, a major importer of Russian oil, the sanctions pose risks to energy trade stability, potentially disrupting normal trade flows and increasing import costs, which could exacerbate domestic inflation [9][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The sanctions reflect a broader U.S. strategy to align its allies, including the EU and G7 nations, in a coordinated response against Russia, which may pressure other countries to choose sides [11]. - The geopolitical landscape is increasingly influenced by U.S. actions, with the potential for heightened tensions in U.S.-China relations as the U.S. may push for compliance with its sanctions [11][12].