国泰海通证券 6 月基金表现回顾 [Table_Authors] 魏玮(分析师) 重配 TMT、军工、有色等相关行业个股的基金表现较优 本报告导读： 2025 年 6 月，A 股上涨，债市上涨，美股上涨，油价上涨，金价调整。基金方 面，部分重配 TMT、军工、有色等相关行业个股的基金表现较优。 投资要点： 2025 年 6 月基金业绩回顾 基金研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.02 | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040123 | | | 庄梓恺(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040038 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 基 金 研 究 基 金 月 报 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月资本市场回顾 股票市场：A 股上涨，TMT、军工、有色等行业表现较优。2025 年 6 月，5 月制造业 PMI 环比上升带动 A 股上行，但受中东局势影响， 市场于月中承压调整，后在伊以宣布正式停火、央行等六部门联合 发布《关于金融支持提振 ...

据韩联社：波兰完成了与韩国现代Rotem公司的谈判，接收第二批K2坦克。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The military and solid-state battery sectors are entering a significant growth phase, with potential investment opportunities emerging from companies that are strategically positioned in both fields [3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The military sector is experiencing a new wave of momentum driven by three major benefits, including increased government spending and geopolitical tensions [3]. - The solid-state battery sector is witnessing a series of catalytic events, such as the launch of new products by leading manufacturers and the establishment of pilot production lines, indicating a clear turning point for the industry [3]. - The combination of policy support and event-driven catalysts is expected to lead to a new round of valuation recovery in both sectors [3]. Group 2: Company Highlights - **Foton Motor**: The only commercial vehicle manufacturer in China with military product certification, has developed the world's first semi-solid battery light truck, "Zhi Lan ES7," which has passed military cold weather tests and features a 120kWh semi-solid battery with an energy density of 280Wh/kg and a range exceeding 600 kilometers [4]. - **Haohua Technology**: The sole supplier of "lithium trifluoromethanesulfonate" in China, with electronic-grade nitrogen purity reaching 99.9999%, supplying military production lines for major companies like SMIC and Yangtze Memory Technologies [5]. - **China Baowu Steel Group**: Its subsidiary, Better Ray, is the only company globally with a complete technology layout for solid-state battery materials, supplying core materials to major players like CATL and BYD, and holds the largest market share in silicon-based anodes [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in high-priced stocks, while the deep-sea technology sector shows strong performance with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - A total of 60 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 12 stocks in a continuous rise, and 8 of them achieving three consecutive limit ups, reflecting a progression rate of 53.33% for limit-up stocks [1] - The overall market saw more than 3200 stocks decline, with notable drops in popular stocks such as Changcheng Military Industry, which fell over 7%, and several others hitting the limit down [1] Group 2 - The deep-sea technology sector was particularly strong, with stocks like Kelaite and Shenshui Haina hitting the daily limit up, and others like Daye Intelligent and Guolian Aquatic rising by 20% [1] - The photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend, led by the photovoltaic glass sub-sector, with stocks such as Yamaton and Yaopi Glass also reaching the daily limit up [1][2] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Chengbang Co. achieving a five consecutive limit up but experiencing significant fluctuations during trading [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing at 3454.79 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 543.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10412.63 points, down 0.61%, with a trading volume of 833.8 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext index closed at 2123.72 points, down 1.13%, with a trading volume of 393.8 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The steel, photovoltaic, coal, and marine economy sectors showed strong performance, while military, brain-computer interface, CPO, and semiconductor sectors faced declines [1][2] - Photovoltaic concept stocks rebounded collectively, with nearly 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Marine economy concept stocks surged against the trend, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Steel and cyclical stocks were active, with companies like Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - Military stocks underwent adjustments, with Beifang Changlong dropping over 10% [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jufeng Investment Advisors, the market is experiencing fluctuations, with the steel sector performing well. The marine economy is emerging as a new thematic focus due to multiple catalysts [4] - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund noted that the market remains strong under the expectation of policy support for the economy, with a dual rotation between consumption and technology sectors [4] - The long-term outlook suggests that with decreasing tariff uncertainties and a restructuring of the global monetary order, the valuation of Chinese equity assets may improve [4] Innovation and Technology - CITIC Securities highlighted the issuance of measures by the National Medical Insurance Administration and the National Health Commission to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating a favorable environment for the pharmaceutical sector [5] - The report suggests embracing innovation-driven strategies and internationalization as key directions for investment in the second half of the year [5] Industry Developments - The world's largest single-unit capacity impact turbine has been successfully developed, marking a significant breakthrough in China's high-head, large-capacity turbine technology [7] - The turbine, with a capacity of 500 megawatts, will be used in the Zhala Hydropower Station, a key project for China's "Tibetan electricity export" initiative [7] Market Trends - The global DRAM market is expected to reach a historical high, driven by a significant increase in prices, with the DRAM market composite price index rising by 47.7% since the beginning of 2025 [9] - The traditional DRAM products are projected to experience a shift from oversupply to undersupply, impacting both server and consumer terminal markets [9]

收评：创业板指低开低走跌1.13% 光伏、海洋经济概念股逆势爆发 版停表现 封板率 智通财经7月2日电，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指领跌，沪深两市全天成交额1.38万亿，较上个交易日缩量891亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多 涨少，全市场超3200只个股下跌。从板块来看，光伏概念股集体反弹，通威股份等近10股涨停。海洋经济概念股逆势大涨，巨力索具等10余股涨停。钢铁等 周期股表现活跃，柳钢股份等涨停。下跌方面，军工股展开调整，北方长龙跌超10%。板块方面，钢铁、光伏、煤炭、海洋经济等板块涨幅居前，军工、脑 机接口、CPO、半导体等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%。 | 上证指数 | 创业板指 | 深证成指 | ·2123.72 | ·10412.63 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -3454.79 | | | | | | -0.09% | -63.67 -0.61% | -2.95 | -24.2 | -1.13 | | 1 | The for the control of the control of the c ...

A股三大指数今日集体下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%，北证50指 数跌1.23%。全市场成交额14051亿元，较上日缩量914亿元。全市场超3200只个股下跌。板块题材上， 光伏、钢铁、养殖、代糖、煤炭、海工装备板块涨幅居前；算力硬件、半导体、军工装备、脑机接口、 数字货币、多元金融板块跌幅居前。盘面上，光伏板块集体大涨，双良节能（600481）、亿晶光电 （600537）、凯盛新能（600876）多股封板涨停。钢铁板块午后强势拉升，柳钢股份（601003）、重庆 钢铁（601005）、首钢股份（000959）涨停。海工装备板块集体爆发，深水海纳（300961）、大连重工 （002204）、巨力索具（002342）等10余股涨停。算力硬件板块集体走低，博敏电子（603936）、科翔 股份（300903）、旭光电子（600353）跌幅居前。军工板块午后低迷，内蒙一机（600967）跌停，北方 长龙（301357）、恒宇信通（300965）跌超10%。脑机接口板块集体调整，翔宇医疗、爱朋医疗 （300753）、创新医疗（002173）纷纷下挫。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current time point is at the intersection of two five-year periods, closer to the transition between the fourth and fifth years, with expectations of structural upward marginal EPS after 2025, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][8] - The supply side is expected to experience an expansion period from the end of 2023 to the end of 2026, while the demand side will see a "filling gaps" demand expansion period from 2025 to 2026, characterized by more consumable equipment and a pulse-like rather than growth-type opportunity [2][26] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is anticipated to be a critical five years for global development, with military trade demand becoming a significant variable due to changes in international geopolitical strategies [2][26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Cycle Position - The industry is currently in a mid-cycle phase, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" nearing its end, leading to expectations of structural upward movement in EPS and PE due to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][9] Section 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side is projected to expand from late 2023 to late 2026, while the demand side will focus on "filling gaps" and "creating revenue" as core themes for the next five years [15][26] - The demand for military equipment is expected to be more pulse-like, with a balance point in civilian demand anticipated around 2027, supporting price declines [2][26] Section 3: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies are categorized into "filling gaps" and "creating revenue," focusing on completed and pending equipment from the "14th Five-Year Plan," as well as military trade and civilian sectors [29] - Specific attention is given to small-cap stocks in the aftermarket for completed equipment and larger-cap stocks for potential opportunities following event-driven declines [29]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance in June, with military-themed funds achieving significant gains, driven by a fundamental shift in the industry’s business environment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Military-themed active equity funds (Class A shares) recorded an average monthly increase of 7.31% as of June 30, significantly outperforming mainstream stock indices [1]. - The top 10 military funds all surpassed an 11% increase, with the top performer, China Europe High-end Equipment A, achieving a remarkable 20.19% monthly gain [2]. - Key to the success of these funds is the deep exploration of core assets, with leading funds holding shares in major military enterprises benefiting from domestic military equipment upgrades and increased military trade exports [2]. Group 2: Industry Fundamentals - The military industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved order volumes in the first quarter of 2025, particularly in missile, aviation engine, military communication equipment, and unmanned systems sectors [2]. - Companies like Aerospace Electric and Zhenhua Technology are positioned well within the missile supply chain, experiencing a notable recovery in orders [2]. - The military sector's theoretical growth potential is significant, with estimates suggesting a minimum of 100% growth and a maximum of 300% by 2025, as indicated by the cyclical nature of military planning [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The military industry has made significant technological breakthroughs, enhancing market confidence in its capabilities [4]. - The production capacity of the Wenchang Satellite Super Factory is set to reach 1,000 satellites annually, which will lower manufacturing costs and benefit companies in satellite communication and navigation [4]. - Despite the military sector's current high valuation, its scarcity and defensive attributes make it a focal point for capital allocation [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes, there is an expectation for a concentrated release of orders, which will drive performance recovery in the military sector [5]. - The initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide new growth expectations, supported by increased military trade exports and advancements in national defense modernization [5]. - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese War of Resistance against Japan is expected to catalyze interest in the military sector [5]. Group 5: Policy and Geopolitical Factors - Recent policies, such as the Military Scientific Research Reward Regulations, are aimed at incentivizing military technological innovation, particularly in critical areas like aviation engines [6]. - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts is likely to sustain demand for military equipment, reflecting a market reassessment of the value of air superiority assets [6]. - The military sector's fundamentals remain strong, with a positive outlook for core military companies' performance, although caution is advised regarding potential geopolitical fluctuations [6].