Economic Activity - Economic activity has slightly declined since the last report, with half of the Federal Reserve districts reporting a moderate decline [1] - Three Federal Reserve districts reported no change, while three reported slight growth [1] Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior - All Federal Reserve districts reported an increase in economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitancy in decision-making among businesses and households [1] - Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most districts indicating slight declines or no change, although some reported increased spending on items affected by tariffs [1] Manufacturing and Real Estate - Manufacturing activity has seen a slight decline [1] - Residential real estate sales remained nearly unchanged, with most districts reporting stable or slowing new home construction activity [1] Banking and Transportation - Reports on bank loan demand and capital expenditure plans were mixed [1] - Port activity was strong, while transportation and warehousing activities reported mixed results across different regions [1] Overall Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, with no change compared to the last report [1] - Some districts indicated a worsening outlook, while others reported improvements [1]

真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 1、今天，A股延续昨天的开门红，创业板指涨超1%，券商板块拉升，消费板块涨幅居前。后市主线何在？ 2、 对冲基金5月加速购入全球股票！多个积极信号暗示A股机会来了？ 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 ， 优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ --这是第1358 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股延续了昨天的开门红走势，创业板指涨超1%，有近4000只个股上涨。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/4，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额为1.15万亿元，盘面上，消费、券商板块上涨支撑指数走强。 1、 对冲基金5月加速购入全球股票， 外围对中国的看法大幅转向！ 高盛 最新在一份报告中指出，对冲基金上周以近半年来（2024年11月以来）最快的速度买入了全球股票。 机构分析认为 ， 国内中长期耐心资本的力量正在壮大，监管层通过推进长期稳市机制建设和释放常规化"护盘"信号，将有力支撑A股底部区间。 两大积极信号暗示A股迎转机？ 6月开始的两天，A股连续上涨，今天，"牛市旗手"券商板块拉升，光大证券涨超6%，是否意味着迎来转机了呢？ 摘要 （图片来源：东方财富 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> 截至发文，其他相关ETF表现如下：恒生消费ETF(513970)涨幅为0.64%，港股通汽车ETF(159323)涨幅 为1.38%，香港证券ETF(513090)涨幅为1.15%，港股科技50ETF(513980)涨幅为1.89%。 港股市场今日表现亮眼，港股通创新药ETF(159570)涨超2%，连涨3天，成交额3.62亿元，较昨日此时 放量20.76%，近1月份额增加2.72亿份，该基金支持T+0交易。 ...

Core Insights - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including inflation, debt pressure, and structural risks in asset valuation, reshaping financial markets [1] - The report emphasizes the need to focus on certainty and seek assets with a high safety margin in the current market environment [1] - Fund allocation for June 2025 should consider three core dimensions: 1) deepening overseas inflation, debt pressure, and asset structural risks; 2) domestic economic stabilization driven by consumption and technological innovation; 3) rebalancing risks and opportunities in alternative assets amid rising risk aversion [1] Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, global equity assets performed well, with MSCI global returning 1.1% and the CSI All Share Index returning 0.6% [6] - Domestic bond assets remained stable despite increased volatility in interest rate bonds, with the CSI All Bond Index rising 0.44% over the past six months [6] - Commodity assets, particularly gold and oil, experienced increased volatility due to geopolitical factors and changes in overseas policies [6] Market Outlook - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI in Europe and Japan has been below the growth line for ten consecutive months, indicating significant pressure on these economies [15] - The U.S. protectionism and isolationism are disrupting global economic growth, leading to structural price increases and new inflation issues [17] - The report warns of increasing structural risks in global asset valuations, particularly in long-term government bonds, which may face selling pressure due to rising yields [20] Asset Allocation Recommendations Equity Funds - Domestic equity assets are considered relatively attractive due to high valuation ratios amid overseas economic cycles peaking and increasing debt pressure [2] - Core allocation should focus on high certainty in performance, high profits, and high dividends, particularly in dividend and large-cap funds [2] - Opportunities should be sought in policy-driven, confidence-driven, and technology-enabled sectors, with a focus on consumer improvement and sectors like chips, AI, and new energy [2] Fixed Income Funds - The report suggests lowering expectations and seeking stable returns, with a preference for medium to short-duration funds due to the overvaluation of long-duration bonds [2] - Financial bonds and interest rate bonds are recommended for stable investors, with a potential for credit risk to be managed through appropriate credit downgrades [2] QDII Funds - Caution is advised for equity QDII investments due to structural valuation risks, while low PB value stocks in Europe and Hong Kong may perform better [3] - Oil QDII investments should be approached with caution due to OPEC+ production increases and declining global oil demand expectations [3] - Gold QDII is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to rising sovereign debt risks and persistent investor risk aversion [3] Domestic Economic Analysis - The domestic economy is stabilizing with a focus on new and old energy transitions, supported by consumption policies and technological innovation [21] - The GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 5.4%, driven by increased consumption and exports [21] - The report notes that consumer spending is gradually recovering, with retail sales growing by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025 [21] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies high dividend assets and banking stocks as having attractive valuation ratios in the current environment [37] - The technology sector, particularly in semiconductors and AI, is highlighted for its growth potential due to domestic innovation and policy support [37] - Consumer sectors are expected to continue improving, driven by consumption upgrades and digital economy developments [37]

从流动性角度来看，港交所官网数据显示，2025年前4个月的平均日成交金额为2504亿港元，同比上升144%。"截至 2025年5月22日，外资主要追踪的MSCI中国指数超过80%的权重都是港股。"华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘表示。 3日，港股老铺黄金(HK06181)午后拉升，目前涨逾6%，股价创历史新高。截至发稿，股价上涨6.49%，现报968港 元，成交额8.98亿港元。 当前，老铺黄金稳居港股第一高价股，遥遥领先于排在其后的蜜雪集团。自2024年6月底上市以来，老铺黄金的股价 飙涨近14倍。今年3月上市的蜜雪集团表现同样不凡，上市不到三个月股价轻松翻倍。 老铺黄金、蜜雪冰城，还有泡泡玛特，三家消费企业的股价今年以来联袂大涨，新高复新高，被市场冠以港股"三朵 金花"。 据证券日报报道，近年来，港股整体估值水平较低，尤其是科技和消费板块。例如，截至2025年6月2日，恒生科技指 数市盈率（TTM）为20.17倍，远低于历史平均水平。同时，港股的高股息资产（如银行股、电信股）具备明显的配 置价值，吸引了大量险资和其他免税投资者的关注。 从成长性角度来看，"消费+科技"在港股的市值占比已经达到了"半壁江山"的水 ...

港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面上，据新华社报道，商务部6月1日数据显示，截至5月31日，2025年消费品以旧换新5大品类合计 带动销售额1.1万亿元，发放直达消费者的补贴约1.75亿份。 专家表示，从假期数据来看，以旧换新在提振消费、激发市场活力方面表现突出。节假日历来是观察消 费的重要窗口。今年的端午假期，多个促销时点重合，消费需求得到较为集中的释放，更为有力地印证 了我国庞大的内需市场潜力。 6月3日早盘，港股主要指数集体上涨，港股消费ETF（159735）盘中迅速走高，截至发稿上涨0.75%， 溢折率0.04%，盘初溢价频现。 万联证券表示，整体来看，当前国内消费需求仍显弱势，扩内需为2025年的头号重点工作任务，去年底 以来政府部门出台了系列提振消费政策，随着政策持续落地和显效，预计消费行业有望进一步回暖。 成分股方面，中升控股、中国儒意涨超3%，农夫山泉、中国飞鹤、创科实业、长城汽车、珍酒李渡、 哔哩哔哩-W等多股涨超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in relation to tariff policies and their impact on global markets [3][10][13] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 0.57%, with technology stocks dropping by 0.7% [3][4] - Following a significant drop in early April due to tariff concerns, the Hong Kong market rebounded over six weeks, recovering the losses [5][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the influence of U.S. tariff policies on global stock market volatility, with recent court rulings affecting market sentiment [8][9][10] - Gold prices have shown a negative correlation with global stock markets, rising during periods of stock market volatility [13][16] - The total market value of gold is approximately 170 trillion RMB, comparable to the RMB bond market, while the U.S. stock market alone is valued at around 60 trillion USD [22][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment logic and maintaining patience during market fluctuations to achieve long-term gains [31][34] - It encourages investors to continuously learn and research to better navigate market volatility [32][34] - The article concludes with an invitation for readers to share their investment experiences and thoughts [36]

Fiscal Policy Insights - The current macroeconomic policy framework has changed significantly, with a focus on fiscal policy rather than solely relying on historical experiences [1][3] - Fiscal policy is theoretically a counter-cyclical tool, but in practice, it often exhibits pro-cyclical characteristics due to various constraints [3][7] - Recent years have seen fiscal expenditure growth lagging behind GDP growth, primarily due to the limitations of land finance [6][7] Government Debt and Leverage - China's government leverage ratio is relatively low compared to global standards, providing room for increased borrowing [9] - The strict constraints on government borrowing are loosening, allowing for better counter-cyclical adjustments in fiscal policy [13] Monetary Policy Dynamics - Monetary policy is increasingly resembling fiscal policy, with a notable decline in the sensitivity of financing demand to interest rates in a low-rate environment [15][18] - The current monetary policy is characterized by a "factually tight" approach, where policy rate adjustments lag behind market movements, creating potential upward risks for interest rates [17] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the year should focus on aligning with fiscal policy, particularly in the areas of technology and consumption [27] - There is a shift from debt investment to equity investment in public finance, with state-owned capital increasingly supporting technology sectors [27][28] Consumption Support - Fiscal support for consumption is evident through large-scale replacement policies, which have positively impacted sales in sectors like automobiles and home appliances [30] - The focus on "inclusive consumption" reflects a shift from pre-2020 consumption upgrade models, emphasizing fairness and broad access [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May, the A-share market rose slightly overall with a stable index but significant structural changes. The market style was biased towards micro-cap and medical sectors, with relatively average profit - making effects, decreased trading activity, and increased industry rotation speed [3][6]. - Due to the interweaving of internal and external factors, the index is expected to fluctuate in June. Although the most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that exports will maintain high growth in the short - term, with consumption remaining an important driving force for economic recovery [3][31]. - There are three certain main investment lines: domestic demand consumption, domestic substitution, and under - weighted sectors by funds. In June, the market may tend to a defensive style, and attention should be paid to the Internet and consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Three Market - Concerned Core Issues 3.1.1 Core Issue One: Stable Index Points but Significant Structural Changes - In May, the A - share market rose slightly overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly higher. The WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index and CSI 2000 had relatively high gains, while the STAR 50 Index declined [6]. - In terms of industries, environmental protection and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while electronics and social services led the losses. The market style was biased towards micro - cap and medical sectors. The micro - cap style outperformed in May, with the WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index rising 9.3%. The medical and healthcare sector rose 6.2%, outperforming other sectors [11][15]. - The market's profit - making effect was relatively average in May, with the net outflow of equity ETF funds exceeding 40 billion yuan. Market trading activity decreased, while industry rotation speed increased [20][26]. 3.1.2 Core Issue Two: Interweaving of Internal and External Factors, Expected Overall Index Fluctuation - The most severe short - term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Trump's previous trade frictions with many countries and his current short - term compromise are for a buffer for his anti - globalization policies [31][35]. - Trump's previous technology policies against China mainly restricted technology product exports and the development of Chinese enterprises. The new round of US technology policies may focus on restricting the AI industry [39][42]. - US stock enterprises may face greater profit pressure this time, and it is difficult to hedge through tax cuts. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that the economy in the second quarter will remain resilient. Exports may maintain high growth in the short - term, consumption will still be an important driving force for economic recovery, industrial production will remain high, and investment growth is expected to remain high [44][50]. 3.1.3 Core Issue Three: What are the Certain Main Lines? - Domestic demand consumption: It has been the focus of domestic policies, and future policies are expected to continue to catalyze. The consumer industry has relatively low overseas revenue and more resilient performance. Some consumer industries, such as household products, food processing, professional services, and leisure food, are worthy of attention [73]. - Domestic substitution: In 2018, the domestic substitution direction once achieved excess returns. Two investment clues are worthy of attention: industries with high dependence on US imports and strong domestic supply capabilities, and industries with high dependence on US imports but the potential to improve domestic supply capabilities [84][85]. - Under - weighted sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Offering Funds" may have a profound impact on fund industry allocation. Some under - weighted sectors by funds are worthy of attention in the medium - to - long - term, including banks, non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation, but short - term over - interpretation should be avoided [89]. 3.2 A - share Market: May Tend to a Defensive Style in June - Based on the combination of "economic reality" and "market sentiment", the market can be divided into four styles: balanced, pro - cyclical, defensive, and theme - growth and independent prosperity [98]. - In June, the economic reality or economic expectation is less likely to be "strong" in the short - term, and the market sentiment is expected to be weak. Therefore, the market style in June may tend to a defensive style [103][109]. - In a defensive style, attention should be paid to stable or high - dividend industries, such as public utilities, coal, and some sub - sectors [114]. - The five - dimensional industry comparison framework is used to comprehensively analyze and judge industry stock price performance. In May, under the assumption of a decline in market sentiment, the industry grouping effect was good, and the first - group industries achieved excess returns [119][123]. 3.3 Hong Kong Stock Market: Focus on Internet and Consumption Directions In May, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with a significant narrowing of the inflow of southbound funds but a relatively high trading proportion. Attention should be paid to the US restrictions on Chinese concept stocks listed in the US and investment in China. It is recommended to focus on the Internet, automobile, and service consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3].