1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts increase energy valuation, and the expectation of stable growth provides support for domestic demand. Steel mills are expected to resume production during the peak season, leading to strong cost support and firm prices in the sector. However, there are still inventory contradictions in steel products, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. High inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to relieve, Mongolian coal imports are high, the supply - demand surplus in glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys provide limited support. Thus, the upward potential of the futures prices is restricted [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. The upward driving force from the real - world situation is limited. Uncertainties such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the futures prices may fluctuate sharply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply - side shipping has recovered but there are still expectations of disruptions. The high inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are still macro uncertainties. Recently, commodities have shown strength. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand pattern of the short - term scrap steel market, which was previously weak in both supply and demand, has marginally improved. The demand recovery rhythm is slightly faster than the supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, it is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. The possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts after the first round of spot price cuts is small. The futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the energy prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][10] - Coking coal: The resumption of coal mine production is still restricted, but there is still real - world fundamental pressure on coking coal due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are greatly affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow the crude oil prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market is loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there are obstacles in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction when the futures prices rise above the cost line [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, there is not much supply - demand contradiction in ferrosilicon, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][15] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: There is still cost support, and the futures prices have risen slightly. After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures - spot traders and rigid - demand replenishment. However, the overall supply level is low, demand is at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. The upward potential of prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [7] - Iron ore: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices oscillate. Overseas mine shipping has decreased, arrivals have increased, demand has declined in the short term but is expected to recover seasonally later. The inventory has increased slightly, and the futures prices oscillate. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamentals will face greater pressure [7][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand has marginally improved, and the spot prices have risen slightly. Supply recovery is slow, demand has recovered faster, and inventories have decreased. It is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the finished - product price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. After the first round of price cuts, supply has decreased slightly, demand has rigid support, and inventories have accumulated at a slower pace. The futures prices follow the cost - side coking coal [10] - Coking coal: There is still a geopolitical premium, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. Supply has basically recovered, imports are high, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The spot prices are expected to oscillate, and the futures prices are affected by macro and geopolitical factors [12] - Glass: The improvement in sentiment has driven the production and sales of spot products, and the upstream expects to reduce inventories. Supply may decline in the long term, demand has not fully recovered, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the futures valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: Driven by the increase in energy costs, the price center has rebounded. Supply is stable at a high level, demand is stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The cost remains high, and the futures prices oscillate strongly. The cost has support, supply is relatively loose, demand recovery is slow, and there is selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. The cost has support, demand recovery is slow, supply is expected to increase, and the current futures valuation is higher than the cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - On March 11, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2565.65, a decrease of 0.28%; the commodity 20 index was 2921.03, a decrease of 0.32%; the industrial products index was 2484.54, a decrease of 1.01% [102] - The steel industry chain index on March 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 1.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.55% [104]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Thread Steel**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, overall steel supply and demand are relatively loose, and weak reality exerts pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory levels are high, supply and demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market will continue to suppress the market in the medium term, and there is some pressure on supply and demand, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories have accumulated, steel mills are consuming inventory and purchasing on demand, supply has decreased this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The negotiation on iron ore between China and Australia has escalated, which has pushed up ore prices in the short term. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may put emotional pressure on the market, so operate with caution [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Except for some coking enterprises in Hebei that have limited production, the operation in other regions has remained stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills' blast furnaces limited production, molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production intensively, and the average daily output of mines has continued to increase month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][16][17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The operating rate in the production area remains low, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. The quotes of some mainstream manganese mines in April continue to rise, providing strong support for the cost side. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has been launched one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation, production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, the current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, the daily melting volume is 148,500 tons, and in the face of weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventory. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash lacks support. The rise in energy prices has led to an overall increase in costs, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Thread Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices of thread steel futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,174, 3,119, and 3,147 respectively, with price increases of 33, 31, and 32 respectively. The latest prices of spot thread steel in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,100, 3,220, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 40 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of thread steel 01 in Shanghai is 46, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of thread steel 05 in Shanghai is 101, with a decrease of 1; the latest basis of thread steel 10 in Shanghai is 73, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of RB 10 - 01, RB 01 - 05, and RB 05 - 10 are -27, 55, and -28 respectively, with changes of -1, 2, and -1 respectively [2]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: The latest prices of hot rolled coil futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,291, 3,270, and 3,282 respectively, with price increases of 28, 40, and 38 respectively. The latest prices of spot hot rolled coil in different regions such as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,180, 3,260, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 50 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of hot rolled coil 01 in Shanghai is -31, with an increase of 2; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 05 in Shanghai is -10, with a decrease of 10; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 10 in Shanghai is -22, with a decrease of 8. The latest spreads of HC 10 - 01, HC 01 - 05, and HC 05 - 10 are -9, 21, and -12 respectively, with changes of 10, -12, and 2 respectively [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 741, 785, and 758 respectively, with price increases of 12, 13, and 12 respectively. The latest prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder are 773, 751, and 798 respectively, with price increases of 9, 11, and 0 respectively [6]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of PB powder for 01 is 83, with a decrease of 2; the latest basis of PB powder for 05 is 40, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of PB powder for 09 is 66, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of i 01 - 05, i 05 - 09, and i 09 - 01 are -44, 27, and 17 respectively, with changes of -13, 1, and 12 respectively [6]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,906.0, 1,740.0, and 1,803.5 respectively, with price increases of 50.5, 44.5, and 41.5 respectively. The latest prices of spot coke in different regions such as Lvliang, Rizhao, and Handan are 1,230, 1,470, and 1,370 respectively, with no price changes [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 74.0%, a decrease of 0.4%; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 110.3 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.3 tons, a decrease of 3.9 tons; the inventory available days are 12.5 days, an increase of 0.1 day; the port coke inventory is 203.1 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons; the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is 17.0 yuan, an increase of 24.0 yuan [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,468.0, 1,168.0, and 1,251.5 respectively, with price increases of 42.0, 45.0, and 35.0 respectively. The latest prices of spot coking coal in different regions such as Lvliang, Gujiao, and Meng 5 are 1,310, 1,230, and 1,175 respectively, with no price changes [15]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coal washing plants is 26.6%, an increase of 3.8%; the daily average clean coal output of sample coal washing plants is 19.9 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons; the coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 796.2 tons, a decrease of 33.3 tons; the inventory available days are 11.9 days, a decrease of 0.4 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 775.6 tons, a decrease of 16.8 tons; the inventory available days are 12.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the total port coking coal inventory is 267.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons [15]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5,960, 5,868, and 5,940 respectively, with price increases of 58, 0, and 22 respectively. The latest prices of silicomanganese futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 6,248, 6,132, and 6,184 respectively, with price increases of 26, 2, and 6 respectively. The latest prices of spot ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions have different price changes [18]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08%; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 26.55%, a decrease of 1.77%; the output of 187 silicomanganese enterprises is 195,860 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons; the inventory of 63 silicomanganese enterprises is 387,300 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 66,280 tons, a decrease of 4,120 tons [18]. Glass - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 are 1,280, 1,104, and 1,211 respectively, with price increases of 25, 17, and 17 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 368, an increase of 213.1; the main contract's open interest is 117, a decrease of 9.1 [22]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of glass in different regions such as Hubei, China, and East China are 1,090, 1,137, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The daily melting volume is 146,900 tons, a decrease of 0.16 tons; the inventory is 7,601 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 2,066 ten - thousand weight boxes [22]. Soda Ash - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 are 1,358, 1,276, and 1,330 respectively, with price increases of 26, 34, and 31 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 373, an increase of 233.8; the main contract's open interest is 109, a decrease of 5.9 [26]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, East China, and Central China are 1,260, 1,230, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The operating rate is 0.0%, a decrease of 86.82%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 146,925 tons; the enterprise inventory is 189.4 tons, an increase of 30.64 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of macro - sentiment, the black commodities have collectively declined. The glass and soda ash futures have significantly dropped, and the double - silicon futures have also weakened following the black commodities [1][3] - The prices of glass and soda ash spot markets tend to stabilize, while the double - silicon spot markets have different trends. The silicon - manganese market is running weakly, and the silicon - iron market has a slight adjustment with better market activity [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: With the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the glass futures have significantly declined. The spot price has stabilized, and market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures have significantly declined. The spot market quotation tends to stabilize, and the trading volume is average [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: In the short term, the production of float glass has slightly increased, and there is still an ignition expectation for production lines in the Shahe area. The downstream deep - processing enterprises have gradually resumed work, but the inventory is at a high level, and the inventory - accumulation pattern continues. The Middle - East situation has affected the international energy price, which in turn impacts the glass market. Future attention should be paid to energy price trends, glass production line cold - repairs, and peak - season demand [1] - Soda Ash: The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly. With the recent resumption of device operation, the supply side is under continuous pressure. Downstream enterprises have gradually resumed work, but they mainly replenish inventory at low prices for rigid demand, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. The Middle - East situation has affected the international energy price, which in turn impacts the soda ash market. Future attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, cost support, and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: With the news of the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, energy - chemical commodities based on crude oil have significantly declined. The silicon - manganese futures main contract has slightly weakened following the black sector. The silicon - manganese spot market is running weakly, and the cost - side support is still strong. The price of 6517 in the northern market is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures have slightly declined following the black commodities. The silicon - iron market has a slight adjustment, and the market activity is good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron is 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon - Manganese: The price of manganese ore, the raw material, has slightly increased, pushing up the silicon - manganese price from the cost side. However, the shipments from South Africa and Australia remain at a high level, and the manganese ore supply is relatively loose. With the recent price rebound, the profits of multiple production areas have significantly improved. Under the relatively loose overall supply - demand of silicon - manganese, the price increase is still restricted. Continuous attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, inventory changes, and silicon - manganese warehouse receipts [3] - Silicon - Iron: As silicon - iron enterprises maintain low - load production, the supply pressure of silicon - iron has decreased. The downstream has gradually resumed production, boosting the rigid demand for silicon - iron, and the fundamentals have improved. Considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to further decline and the overall production capacity of silicon - iron is relatively loose, the price increase of silicon - iron is restricted. Continuous attention should be paid to the progress of the Two Sessions, silicon - iron production, silicon - iron inventory, and electricity price policies in production areas [3] Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Silicon - Iron: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term开工 will remain high, but geopolitical factors still exist. With the post - holiday orders of domestic agents being sent out, the domestic shortage of some enterprises will be alleviated. Due to the high overseas raw material prices providing cost support and the geopolitical factors causing price fluctuations, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [1]. Urea - On March 10, the urea futures followed the chemical sector, opening low and moving high, and the spot market price was adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of urea have not changed much, with high - level production. There is still pressure on the supply side. There is still some demand for green - turning fertilizer in the agricultural sector, and industrial demand is recovering. In the short term, the urea price is relatively strong, but after the green - turning fertilizer season ends in the second half of the month, there may be a market downturn. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1,860 - 1,900 range [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: On March 10, the caustic soda futures hit the daily limit down during the session and then rose at the end. The spot market is still optimistic, and the caustic soda price has been slightly increased. The supply - side load is slowly recovering, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum downstream demand is improving. Due to the Middle East conflict, the international supply chain risk has increased, and the export expectation has strengthened. However, the overall supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and price fluctuations [5]. - **PVC**: On March 10, the PVC futures price dropped significantly, and the low - price transactions in the spot market were good. The supply - demand situation has changed slightly. The ethylene - based production enterprises may reduce their loads in the long term, while the calcium carbide - based production enterprises have slightly increased their loads and costs. Domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes. The PVC price may be passively pushed up, but it is also affected by the uncertainty of the cost - end transmission [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: On March 10, the soda ash futures fell, and the spot price was driven up but the trading was light. The weekly production increased slightly, and the production line load fluctuated. The demand was average, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories moderately. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline, and short - selling can be attempted at the current price [6]. - **Glass**: On March 10, the glass futures price dropped. The spot price was raised. The supply - side daily melting volume remained low, and a new production line was ignited. The demand from downstream deep - processing and low - e products was average, and the futures price decline reduced the purchasing intention of futures - spot merchants. The inventory of production enterprises still faced pressure, and it is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The cost increase from energy prices needs further observation. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Polyolefins - The Middle East geopolitical situation is the core driver. The short - term logic is dominated by cost - push and supply reduction, and the fundamentals are secondary. The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game stage. The price fluctuates sharply following geopolitical news, and the high price lacks actual transaction support. After Trump's statement, the crude oil price fluctuated extremely, causing the domestic futures and spot prices to drop significantly, and the market is in a state of high volatility, low trading volume, and fragility [7]. Methanol - The methanol futures dropped significantly, and the spot was purchased on demand. The basis was relatively strong, and the overall transaction was okay. The domestic production device load remained at a relatively high level, but due to shipping interruptions, the market strongly expected a significant reduction in subsequent imports. The demand side remained weak, and the olefin开工 rate of the main downstream continued to decline. The current port inventory is still at a relatively high level in history, but the market expects the port to enter the de - stocking cycle. The current price trend is mainly driven by the supply interruption expectation and risk sentiment, and the subsequent trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [8]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工 rate data are presented [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the geopolitical influence, the crude oil transportation is blocked, and the Asian refinery开工 rate is expected to be affected. Some refineries at home and abroad have adjusted their loads, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the pure benzene supply is expected to decline. The downstream styrene industry has maintained its profit and load at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand support is strong. The pure benzene supply - demand expectation has improved, but it will fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the spread between EB04 and BZ04 when it is high [12]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry has good profits, and the supply in March will remain at a high level. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, and the supply - demand in March is expected to slightly de - stock. It will also fluctuate with the crude oil price. The same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some PX factories in Asia have issued force majeure, and the PX supply is gradually affected. After the holiday, some PTA devices have restarted or increased their loads due to improved processing fees, and the PX supply - demand situation is gradually improving. It is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see for now and go long at a low price after the market stabilizes [13]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has increased after the holiday, and the March device maintenance plan is less than expected. Although the supply - demand expectation has improved, there is still an inventory accumulation expectation. It will follow the cost - end fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to the oil price trend [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly decreased due to the shutdown or load reduction of multiple coal - based and oil - based ethylene glycol devices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the transportation of overseas sources, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be low from mid - March. The polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and the de - stocking amplitude may increase. However, due to Trump's statement, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is still weak. It will follow the raw material price fluctuation and is affected by the cautious downstream procurement. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PF disk processing fee will fluctuate between 800 - 1,100 [13]. - **Bottle - chip**: The domestic bottle - chip supply will gradually increase in March. The absolute price will follow the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee will fluctuate. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [13]. Crude Oil - WTI 04 - month contract closed at $83.45 per barrel, down 11.94%, and Brent 05 - month contract closed at $87.80 per barrel, down 11.28%. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. Due to the drone attack, ADNOC has closed its refinery. The US strategic oil reserve remains stable. It will take at least 4 - 6 weeks for the Gulf region to fully resume export functions, and Iran has not clearly stated to stop the blockade. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate significantly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.18%. The full - latex basis decreased by 420 yuan/ton to - 362 yuan/ton, with a decline of 763.64%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 15,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 680 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.16%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.61%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 54,800 tons to 549,000 tons, with an increase of 11.09%. Indonesia's production decreased by 28,200 tons to 161,100 tons, with a decline of 14.90%. India's production decreased by 3,900 tons to 108,100 tons, with a decline of 3.48%. In December, China's production decreased by 84,500 tons to 51,200 tons. The开工 rate of semi - steel tires increased by 39.47 percentage points to 74.03%, and the开工 rate of full - steel tires increased by 36.73 percentage points to 65.90%. In December, the domestic tire production increased by 473,500 pieces to 10,656,300 pieces, with an increase of 4.65%. The tire export volume increased by 186,000 pieces to 5,843,000 pieces, with an increase of 3.29%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 159,900 tons to 803,400 tons, with an increase of 24.84% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 200 tons to 680,412 tons, with an increase of 0.07%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 202 tons to 20,399 tons, with a decline of 0.40% [1]. Urea - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: The 01 contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 contract decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1,856 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The 09 contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 1,884 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.88%. The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton [4]. - **Main - contract Position**: The long - position of the top 20 decreased by 14,403 to 121,561, with a decline of 10.59%. The short - position of the top 20 decreased by 25,730 to 177,959, with a decline of 14.46% [4]. - **Upstream Raw Material Price**: The price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the port in Qinhuangdao remained unchanged at 746 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market Price**: The price of small - particle urea in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.53%. The price in Guangdong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.54% [4]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 3,200 tons to 221,200 tons, with an increase of 1.49%. The weekly production decreased by 15,700 tons to 1,003,000 tons, with a decline of 13.53%. The factory - warehouse inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 190,000 tons, with an increase of 9.20% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 1,843.8 yuan/ton. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of PVC in East China by calcium carbide method decreased by 610 yuan/ton to 5,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.6%. The price of PVC in East China by ethylene method increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.3% [5]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price at East China ports increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 340 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.0%. The export profit increased by 42.6 yuan/ton to 230.2 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22.7% [5]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 700 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in India increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.8%. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 635 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 37.3 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton, with an increase of 79.4% [5]. - **Supply (Caustic Soda and PVC开工率 and Industry Profit)**: The开工率 of the caustic soda industry increased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.4%. The total开工率 of PVC decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 81.1%. The profit of PVC by external - purchase calcium carbide method increased by 135 yuan/ton to - 507 yuan/ton, with an increase of 21.0%. The profit of northwest integrated production increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 293.1 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18.2% [5]. - **Demand (Caustic Soda and PVC Downstream开工率)**: The开工率 of the alumina industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 82.6%. The开工率 of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.7 percentage points to 90.1%. The开机率 of the printing and dyeing industry increased by 18.1 percentage points to 42.5%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample pipes increased by 19.4 percentage points to 33.0%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample profiles increased by 16.1 percentage points to 27.4% [5]. - **Inventory (Caustic Soda and PVC Social and Factory - warehouse Inventory)**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda increased by 0.9 tons to 55 tons, with an increase of 1.7%. The upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%. The price in East China remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton. The glass 2605 contract decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,076 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.54%. The 05 basis increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 86.36% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.40%. The price in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,25

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-03-11 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，盘⾯存在调整压⼒ 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若产销不能持续好转，则高库存始终 压制价格。纯碱供应短期高位稳定，整体供需仍旧过剩，预计短期以 震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格中枢仍将下行， 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值⾼位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存⽭盾仍存，铁矿⽯⾼库存压⼒难以缓解，蒙煤进⼝数 量⾼企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合⾦基本⾯⽀撑不⾜，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘⾯价格⾃⾼位有所回落。 地缘风险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值高位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存矛盾仍存，铁矿石高库存压力难以缓解，蒙煤进口数 量高企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合金基本面支撑不足，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘面价格自高位有所回落。 1. 铁元素方面：供应端发运恢复但仍存扰动预期，高库存压力短期 难以缓解，两会召开叠加地缘政治扰动较多，宏观仍存不确定性，近 期商品表现偏强，若宏观扰动弱化则铁矿基本面压力仍较大，铁矿预 计震荡偏弱。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, significantly impacts the prices of various commodities. Oil - related products are particularly sensitive to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with supply disruptions leading to price fluctuations. - Different industries face different supply - demand dynamics. For example, some industries have supply shortages due to geopolitical factors, while others are affected by domestic policies and seasonal demand. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: Oil prices dropped significantly during the day as the US - Iran situation showed signs of cooling. - Fundamentals: The Strait of Hormuz is not navigable. Kuwait has stopped oil production, and Iraq has cut production by 70%. Refineries have reduced their operating loads, causing a shortage of refined oil products. The G7 and the IEA are discussing the release of oil reserves, and Saudi Aramco is providing spot oil supplies, which has eased market pressure [3]. - Macro: Geopolitical tensions have led to soaring oil prices, impacting inflation and economic growth. Middle - Eastern countries face increased fiscal pressure, and the market has a short - term risk - aversion tendency [3]. - Geopolitical: The US - Iran conflict is the focus. Trump said the war would end soon, and the oil price showed a downward trend with the cooling of geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical premiums are expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited fundamental support [5][6]. - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil: On March 9, FU hit the daily limit again due to supply cuts in the Middle East. The G7 is discussing the release of strategic oil reserves. The war - risk insurance rate in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The high - sulfur internal - external price difference has decreased but is still high. Russian supply disruptions also support high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has risen with crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak. There are new supplies from some refineries, and the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is weak [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Be wary of the risk of price decline after continuous increases. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical tensions persist, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the supply of LPG from the Middle East is expected to shrink. Crude oil prices have soared, strengthening cost support. LPG prices at home and abroad have risen significantly. However, there is a risk of a price correction after continuous increases [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical conflict. - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract rose 7.53% overnight and significantly reduced its positions. The spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the spot basis is strong. PTA production capacity utilization is 81% (+4.4 pct). An PX device in East China has stopped unexpectedly. The demand side shows that the production capacity utilization of polyester, texturing, weaving, and dyeing has increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang over the weekend were good, but weak on the day of the report [9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Supply and policies limit the emotional premium. - Fundamentals: The guidance price restricts the price increase. Factories stabilize prices to fulfill orders, and downstream demand is cautious. The domestic urea market has a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Spring plowing demand is ongoing, and industrial demand is recovering, providing some support to the price. However, the high daily production and the stable guidance price limit the price increase space [11]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: Be wary of the risk of a high - level correction after the overnight plunge in oil prices. - Fundamentals: The energy - chemical sector rose collectively on Monday, but the night session opened high and went low. The near - month contracts did not continue to hit the daily limit due to high port inventories and exchange risk - control measures. The market is worried about the supply disruption of Middle - Eastern goods in the long - term, increasing the activity of far - month contracts. There is a risk of negative feedback from downstream and a disconnection between futures and spot prices [12][13]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The short - term spot sentiment follows the futures market. The cost of coal has not increased, and the supply remains high, but the daily output has decreased slightly. The demand is mainly speculative. In the long - term, the high - inventory situation needs to be improved through factory production cuts or increased exports, but the upward driving force is not clear [14]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The spot sentiment has improved, following the futures market. Two production lines were shut down, reducing the supply. The short - term speculative demand has been released, but the actual rigid demand is still weak. The supply is expected to continue to decline, and the market will fluctuate between weak demand and low supply. The real improvement in the supply - demand situation may come after the real - estate market recovers in the second quarter [15][17]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The shortage of ethylene affects foreign production capacity. Although the domestic caustic soda market has a contradiction between high production and high inventory, the expected improvement in exports supports the price increase. The key to the price increase lies in the navigation time of the Strait of Hormuz. If the export demand, new alumina production demand, and spring inspection demand of caustic soda factories resonate, the price may rise further [18]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The conflict may end, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: Inventories in Shanghai and London have increased, and the short - term macro - risk aversion has declined, with the US dollar falling, supporting copper prices. Although downstream demand has improved, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. Trump's hint that the war is about to end has led to an increase in copper prices [19]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The employment market has declined, and gold prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation may lead to long - term inflation through the energy channel, which may cause central banks to tighten monetary policies, reducing the anti - inflation appeal of gold. Trump's statement that the war is about to end has led to a weakening of the US dollar, supporting the rise of gold prices [20][21]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price has broken through the resistance and risen. - Fundamentals: The US non - farm unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the weak data has made the market expect the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. However, the strong US dollar and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict have suppressed silver prices. Trump's statement that the war may end soon has led to a decline in the US dollar's safe - haven function, and silver prices have broken through [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to an increase in energy valuations and rising shipping costs, which strengthen the cost - side support and drive up the prices of the black building materials sector. However, the current situation in the off - season is lackluster. There are still inventory contradictions in steel, high inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to alleviate, Mongolian coal imports remain high, the supply - demand surplus in the glass and soda ash market remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys lack support. The expectation for the peak season is still cautious, causing prices to fall after a short - term increase [1]. - With many disturbances such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, if the geopolitical conflicts continue, the futures prices will still have an upward drive. But as it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is cautious. Once the external disturbances weaken, there will be a risk of price correction at high levels. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, while arrivals have significantly increased. The high inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are uncertainties in the macro environment. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in finished - product prices and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [1][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may be strong following energy prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. Spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by many factors such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflicts continue, it may follow the upward trend of crude oil prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost - side transmission, and high upstream inventory leads to significant selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. When futures prices rise above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against [2][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand drive in the ferrosilicon market is limited. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. When the futures valuation recovers above the cost line, the risk of high - level correction should be vigilant [2][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventories will always suppress prices [2][5][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity will be reduced [2][5][14]. 3.5 Other Information - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures market is firm. Spot market transactions have warmed up, but the overall demand is still at a low level. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamental contradiction needs time to ease. The futures market has an upward drive but is limited. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand [7]. - **Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and plate index (such as the steel industry chain index) of CITIC Futures all had different degrees of increase or decline. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 2.93%, the commodity 20 index increased by 2.55%, and the industrial product index increased by 3.87%. The steel industry chain index increased by 2.51% on the day, 3.54% in the past 5 days, - 0.37% in the past month, and 0.37% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, which drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are mainly stable with limited stimulus, and the market expectation returns to the fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is under pressure due to factors such as production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. - For soda ash, supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3174 yuan/ton, 3119 yuan/ton, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3291 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed. For example, the rebar summary price in China on March 9, 2026, was 3323 yuan/ton [9]. Market Analysis - The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are stable, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is affected by production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 741 yuan/ton, 784.5 yuan/ton, and 758 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also increased [23]. Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on March 6, 2026, was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the previous week. The 45 - port inventory was 17117.86 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared with the previous week [29]. Market Analysis - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. Coking Coal and Coke Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke in different contracts and the corresponding price differences and profit data are also provided [36][39]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and the import and export profit data are also detailed [40]. Market Analysis - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. Ferroalloys Price Data - For ferrosilicon, on March 9, 2026, the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc., increased. The price differences between different contracts are also provided [52]. - For ferromanganese, the spot prices in different regions also increased, and the price differences between different contracts are given [53][55]. Market Analysis - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. Soda Ash Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1276 yuan/ton, 1330 yuan/ton, and 1358 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions are also provided [67]. Market Analysis - Supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. Glass Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1104 yuan/ton, 1211 yuan/ton, and 1280 yuan/ton respectively. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [90]. - The daily production and sales data of glass in different regions are given [91]. Market Analysis - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II project has increased, and the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, with sufficient overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period, showing a bearish trend [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,242 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 22 yuan, indicating that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][31]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the shorts are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely**: The cold repair of downstream float glass is less, and the output remains stable. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - **Unlikely**: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new overhauls, so the output is expected to remain high. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,225 | 1,242 | 1.39% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,205 | 1,220 | 1.24% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 20 | - 22 | 10.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level [14]. 3.6 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 807,000 tons, including 432,300 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historically high level [19]. 3.7 Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including contributions from Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Lingshan, and Chongqing Xiangyu [20]. - In 2024, the total new capacity was 1.8 million tons, from Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Jinshan, and Henan Zhongda [20]. - In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons, from companies such as Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Plant, and Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy [20]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales Rate**: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 61.12% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the operating rate is 70.81% [26]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The document does not provide specific data on the decline in production, but it mentions that the demand for soda ash has weakened due to production cuts [4]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of capacity, output, apparent supply, and total demand [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to show a trend reversal and are likely to remain range - bound and weak. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily consumption of cement and building materials [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.422%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,646 tons, a net increase of 7,318 tons. The main contract position was 1.7987 million lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Shanghai it was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.654%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 472,215 tons, unchanged, and the main contract position was 1.3988 million lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Strategy View**: The overall price of finished steel continued to be volatile. Macro - policies will support infrastructure and manufacturing investment and underpin steel demand in the medium term. Real - estate policies focus on stabilizing the market and defusing risks, with limited incremental impact on steel demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined this week, and inventory continued to accumulate. For rebar, supply and demand both increased, but the inventory accumulation rate was too fast. Before peak - season demand is confirmed, prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.71% (+13.00), with a position change of - 10,515 lots to 488,300 lots. The weighted position was 888,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 38.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.80% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments fluctuated slightly at a high level. Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments increased. Near - term arrivals continued to fall. The latest daily hot - metal output decreased by 56,900 tons to 2.2759 million tons. Steel - mill profitability declined. Port inventory was basically unchanged, and steel - mill inventory continued to decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM605) closed up 0.62% at 6,130 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.69% at 5,868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 332 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon price rebounded and remained volatile at a high level, and the ferrosilicon price continued to rebound [7]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has shifted the overall sentiment of commodities towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling may not be appropriate. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a good fundamental situation. Future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black - metal sector, cost increases from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contractions for ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main coking - coal contract (JM2605) closed up 1.58% at 1,123.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1,695.5 yuan/ton. The coking - coal price rebounded slightly in March, and the coke price also rebounded slightly [11][12][13]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" had a slightly positive impact on coking coal, driving up prices. However, downstream de - stocking and increased coal production in March will restrict short - term demand. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is not enough support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The main industrial - silicon futures contract (SI2605) closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.46% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 7,727 lots to 385,766 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial - silicon price fluctuated. Supply is expected to increase in March, and demand from the polysilicon and organic - silicon sectors is also likely to rise. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction will be difficult. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) closed at 41,115 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.76% (-1,165). The weighted contract position decreased by 757 lots to 57,752 lots [19]. - **Strategy View**: Supply and demand in the polysilicon market are expected to increase in March, but inventory reduction may be limited. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is also expected to continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to new order transactions [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main glass contract closed at 1,055 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.64% (+17). The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises on March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 3.629 million boxes (4.77%) [21]. - **Strategy View**: Market demand has slightly improved, and glass manufacturers have raised prices. However, distributors' willingness to purchase is not strong. The government's real - estate policy continues to be "supportive but not over - stimulating", and there is potential for incremental policies. The reference range for the main contract is 1,070 - 1,130 yuan/ton [22]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.83% (+22). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises on March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 52,800 tons (4.77%) [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the actual procurement demand of downstream industries has not been effectively released. The cost of soda ash has increased due to the rise in domestic oil prices. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector in March. The reference range for the main contract is 1,230 - 1,315 yuan/ton [24].