Group 1 - The chemical industry exhibits significant cyclical characteristics, with the soda ash sector currently in a bottom adjustment phase due to the downturn in downstream industries like real estate [1] - The company is implementing measures such as optimizing production organization, adjusting product structure, reducing production consumption, enhancing procurement management, innovating marketing models, and strictly controlling expenses to maximize operational performance and risk resistance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass is showing a strong upward trend with supply - side disturbances, while soda ash is in a weak downward trend. For the double - silicon products, the market sentiment is cautious, and the alloys are fluctuating [1][3] - The overall strategy is that glass and silicon products are in a fluctuating state, while soda ash is in a weak fluctuating state [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong upward trend yesterday, and the spot market prices remained stable with good sales by manufacturers [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market showed a weak downward trend yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. Although some production lines have been gradually shut down for maintenance, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of glass production line shutdowns [1] - Soda ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has rebounded. Considering the future new production projects of soda ash and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, it is necessary to suppress the production profits of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Fluctuating [2] - Soda ash: Weakly fluctuating [2] 3.2 Double - Silicon Products (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated yesterday. Before the festival, steel mills' inventory replenishment has gradually ended, and mainstream steel mills have not launched a new round of tenders. The prices are relatively firm. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market fluctuated yesterday. The spot market transactions were average, and downstream inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved. There is an expected increase in molten iron production in the future, and the demand for silicon manganese will improve marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. Recently, the South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, which may increase the cost of manganese ore in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of silicon iron and the power price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for soda ash is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1208.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1234.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.08% increase [1] - Soda ash production has increased to 111,400 tons per day, with an operating rate of 83.8%. However, demand from glass manufacturers is stabilizing, and inventory levels are rising [2] - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to oversupply pressures, with a recommendation for a short-selling strategy in the medium to long term, while short-term price support is expected due to winter storage demand [2][3] Group 2 - The float glass industry is experiencing a slight increase in operating rates, but demand remains weak, leading to stable soda ash prices. New orders are limited, and manufacturers are maintaining low inventory levels [2] - Southern soda ash producers are planning maintenance, which may lead to a decrease in operating rates. The overall supply is under pressure, and caution is advised in pursuing long positions [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-04 淡季缺乏亮点，盘⾯上⽅存在压⼒ 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现承压。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒仍存，盘⾯表现偏弱。煤焦补 库⽀撑逐步转弱，但节前焦煤供应端存在收紧预期，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 玻璃供应端存在扰动，但供需过剩限制玻纯盘⾯上⽅空间。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现承压。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力仍存，盘面表现偏弱。煤焦补 库支撑逐步转弱，但节前焦煤供应端存在收紧预期，盘面震荡运行。 玻璃供应端存在扰动，但供需过剩限制玻纯盘面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，节 后需求存不确定性，现实方面供需两端仍有待验证，关注市场情绪变 化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾声，整 体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期仍 在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限，现 货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. Therefore, the loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. Meanwhile, the warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate in the bottom - range in February, and the oversupply situation will continue to deepen in the medium - term. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [4][24]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In January, there were few domestic device maintenance enterprises, and with the release of new capacities, the supply steadily recovered. In February, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply in February is expected to further increase. As of January 30, the overall operating rate of soda ash devices was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%; the weekly output of soda ash was 78.31 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.14 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 tons. The total output of soda ash in January was about 3.4138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 233,300 tons, with a growth rate of 7.34%. In February, Southern Alkali Industry has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans for the time being. However, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the load of new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply level of soda ash will increase again, and it is possible that the weekly output will exceed 800,000 tons [6]. - In January, the inventory of soda ash enterprises first increased and then decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of January 30, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.51%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 194,000 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival in February, downstream enterprises will shut down for holidays and logistics will stop, so there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the market will still face relatively high inventory pressure year - on - year after the Spring Festival [8][9]. - In January, the profit of the soda ash joint - alkali process slightly improved, while the profit of the ammonia - alkali process continued to decline, but the overall situation was still in a loss. As of January 30, the production cost of soda ash for ammonia - alkali manufacturers in North China was 1,380.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 160.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton; the production cost of soda ash for joint - alkali manufacturers in East China was 1,274.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 94.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. In February, the supply - demand situation may not improve, and it is expected that the industry profit will continue to be in a loss. In the medium - term, in the long - cycle of soda ash oversupply, low industry profit may become the norm, but continuous industry losses will support a partial reduction in phased supply [10]. Demand Side - In January, the supply of float glass continued to decline, and there is still an expectation of further decline in February. As of January 30, 2026, the production profit of float glass using coal as raw material was - 68.50 (- 3.39) yuan/ton, the production profit using petroleum coke as raw material was 1.07 (+ 2.85) yuan/ton, and the production profit using natural gas as raw material was - 155.12 (+ 3.57) yuan/ton. Except for the coal - based process, the process profits of petroleum coke and natural gas improved month - on - month, but the overall industry profit was still poor. In January, 1 float glass production line was ignited, 3 production lines were shut down for water release, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass, resulting in little change in the number of operating production lines. The weekly output decreased from 1.075125 million tons to 1.056965 million tons, and the industry operating rate decreased from 73.04% to 71.86%. After the Spring Festival, there are still plans to shut down production lines for cold repair, with a maximum daily melting volume of 2,500 tons per day. If implemented, the daily melting volume of float glass in production will drop to about 148,500 tons [13]. - In January, the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased. The ending inventory decreased from 56.866 million weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 7.57%, and it has now fallen to the historical median level. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation for glass factories. In addition, the inventory levels of middle - stream goods in core regions such as Hebei and Hubei are also at a high level, and the market will face double high - inventory pressures from manufacturers and traders after the Spring Festival [14]. - As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was - 17.20% (- 1.30%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate construction area was - 10.00% (- 0.40%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in newly started construction area was - 20.40% (+ 0.10%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate completion area was - 18.10% (- 0.10%), and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was - 8.70% (- 0.90%). In December 2025, the production and sales of automobiles decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of automobiles in December were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 and 157,000 respectively. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.4% in production and 9.4% in sales [15][17]. - As of December 2025, the monthly actual consumption of soda ash was 3.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.64%. In February, the domestic soda ash market is not optimistic, with prices fluctuating at the bottom and expectations of decreased transactions and consumption. In December 2025, China's soda ash imports were 3,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, with a growth rate of 1278%; exports were 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons, with a growth rate of 22.91%. From January to December, the cumulative imports were 25,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.41%; the cumulative exports were 2.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.75%. It is expected that in 2026, the high - level export of soda ash will continue, and the import window is almost non - existent [19]. Recent Macro - event Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jerome Powell, whose term will end in May 2026. Warsh is expected to support interest rate cuts but will not adopt the more radical policy - easing measures advocated by some other potential candidates, which has caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market, with a neutral - bearish rating [21]. - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed Chairman Powell said that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have both decreased, suggesting that there is no urgent need to further reduce borrowing costs. This is the first pause after a continuous interest - rate cut cycle, and this result was widely expected in the financial market, with a neutral rating [21]. - The Iranian President has ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the US, and the two sides are likely to hold high - level talks in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6, with a neutral rating [21]. Summary and Outlook - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. The loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. The warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price of soda ash will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in February. In the medium - term, the oversupply situation will continue to deepen. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has declined, leading to price drops. The core contradiction lies in the fact that steel mills' profits support high blast furnace operating rates, but terminal demand seasonally shrinks before the Spring Festival, resulting in light trading volume and increasing inventory. Cost provides support, and prices are unlikely to fall significantly under policy constraints, oscillating in the bottom range [3]. - The iron ore industry is in a supply - demand off - season with no prominent contradictions. Supported by steel mills' inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal production, the downside price space is limited [24]. - Affected by overseas supply disruptions, international coking coal prices are strong, and domestic Shanxi coal prices are also firm. The coking coal basis is at a relatively high level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be more volatile. In the long - term, the market will focus on the resumption of domestic coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [37]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. Silicon manganese is suppressed by high inventory, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better. In the short term, ferroalloys are expected to oscillate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [50]. - The temporary upsurge in commodity sentiment may drive up some undervalued varieties. If the futures prices rise, there is some room for mid - and downstream inventory replenishment, but demand is average with limited elasticity. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, photovoltaic glass inventory continues to accumulate, and the balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. High exports of soda ash alleviate domestic pressure to some extent, while high inventory in the upper and middle reaches restricts prices [64]. - Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual and expected demand are weak. In the context of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are still waiting for cold repair and ignition, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy may also disrupt supply. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3182 yuan/ton, 3099 yuan/ton, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3310 yuan/ton, 3265 yuan/ton, and 3286 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3311 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, 3140 yuan/ton respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3260 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton respectively [10][12]. Other Data - The 01 - 05 rebar spread was 82 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [4]. - The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 48 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [10][12]. - The 01 roll - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, and the roll - rebar spot spread in Shanghai was 30 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [17]. - The ratios of 01 rebar to 01 iron ore and 01 rebar to 01 coke were both 4 and 2 respectively on February 3, 2026 [21]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 749 yuan/ton, 777.5 yuan/ton, and 760 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Karara powder, and Rizhao Super Special powder were 786 yuan/ton, 886 yuan/ton, and 675 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Fundamental Data - On January 30, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 227.98 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons [31]. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the 09 - 01 coking coal spread was - 171.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 coke spread was - 93.5 yuan/ton [40]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1630 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [43]. Other Data - The on - site coking profit was - 24 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [40]. - The main coking coal to power coal ratio was 2.4035 on February 3, 2026 [43]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On February 3, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5450 yuan/ton [51]. Silicon Manganese - On February 3, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 194 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [52]. Other Data - The double - silicon spread was - 216 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [52]. Soda Ash Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1201 yuan/ton, 1265 yuan/ton, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively [65]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the heavy soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash market price was 1200 yuan/ton [65]. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of soda ash was - 64 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [65]. Glass Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1072 yuan/ton, 1176 yuan/ton, and 1230 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Spot Prices - Not provided in a comprehensive way in the given content. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of glass was - 104 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [89]. - On January 30, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 102%, and in Hubei was 75% [90].

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 2026年2月3日，金晶科技（sh600586）触及涨停，涨停价6.4元，涨幅9.97%，总市值90.71亿元，流通市 值90.71亿元，截止发稿，总成交额6.02亿元。 根据喜娜AI异动分析，金晶科技涨停原因可能如下，股份回购+治理优化+财务减负： 1、公司完成1亿 元股份回购用于员工激励，这显示出管理层对公司未来发展的信心。同时，公司进行治理结构优化，设 立战略委员会、精简董事会，可能提高决策效率，这些积极举措对股价起到一定的刺激作用。 2、借款 利率下降使得公司财务费用降低，减轻了财务负担。并且公司三季度经营活动现金流为正，具备一定现 金流入能力，这两个因素一定程度上缓解了市 ...

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5][28] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices in the short term [5][28] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side shows that downstream PTA facilities have many maintenance plans in the first quarter, which may affect PX demand [6][29] - The first quarter is expected to see a loosening of the PX supply-demand structure, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remains stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand side is weak, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to fall [7][30] - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [7][30] Group 4: Polyester Market - Several polyester production facilities are undergoing maintenance, with a total capacity of 1.8% affected [8][31] - The average sales estimate for polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 20-30% as of 3:30 PM on Monday, indicating weak demand [8][31] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 11,000 tons to 783,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [15][38] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest soda ash factory inventory increasing by 16,000 tons to 156,000 tons [15][38] - The market sentiment is weak, with soda ash prices expected to remain low in the short term [15][38] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight decline, with inventory decreasing by 33,000 tons to 2,628,000 tons, while production remained stable [40][41] - The demand for glass is weak due to seasonal factors, with the latest deep processing order quantity decreasing [40][41] Group 7: Caustic Soda Market - As of February 2, 2026, caustic soda futures increased by 29 yuan/ton to 2,004 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the market [42][43] - Demand is generally weak, but some caustic soda companies are reducing production, leading to stable prices [42][43] Group 8: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 5,014 yuan/ton, with supply pressure remaining high due to elevated operating rates [44][45] - Short-term expectations for PVC are optimistic due to a significant reduction in production growth in 2026 [44][45] Group 9: Polyolefins Market - Polyolefins are experiencing wide fluctuations, with LLDPE futures up and PP futures down, indicating mixed market conditions [46] - The overall supply trend remains high, but demand is entering a seasonal downturn [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]